Archive for Jake Peavy

The non-waiver trade deadline is behind us, but that doesn’t necessarily mean trade activity ceases in August. As we discussed this morning, teams can still swing trades for players who clear waivers. This is where the Yankees can find an under-the-radar deal. The typical player who clears waivers in August has a high salary; that is, teams won’t put in a claim because they won’t risk getting the contract dumped on them. The Yankees can swoop in there and work out a trade, since they’re in a better position than any team to assume salary. One candidate who fits that description this year is Jake Peavy.

Yankees fans got an up-close look at Peavy last night as he handled the Yankees with aplomb after allowing three early runs. He’s not the same guy that brought home a Cy Young Award with the Padres earlier in his career, but there are indications that he’s not just some washed-up bum. Once he clears waivers, he could represent one of those upgrades that the Yankees could use this year and next.

Pros

  • He’s started to adapt to the AL. Peavy’s most dominant days came when he pitched in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park while the AL was the dominant league. He only came over in 2009, and his numbers aren’t exactly pretty since then. But this year he’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park despite playing in one of the AL’s better hitters’ parks. In fact, he’s pitched far more often at home, and has allowed just two of his four homers there.
  • His control has improved, too, as he’s walking under two per nine. It amounts to a 2.89 FIP, which is quite stellar. He does have a 5.13 ERA, which is alarming at first, until you consider that the White Sox have among the worse defenses in the majors. He’s also been blown up in high-leverage spots this year, which, considering it’s just 64 PA, is not skill-based. In other words, as his luck evens out there his ERA will drop accordingly.
  • ERA estimators in general think he’s a quality mid-level, or even bordering on No. 2, starter. SIERA, tERA, and xFIP all have him in the mid-3s. Other pitchers with a SIERA in the mid-3s: Ricky Romero, Chris Carpenter, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and Ubaldo Jimenez.
  • He had surgery for a rare injury — a tendon in his arm tore completely off the bone — a little over a year ago. That delayed the start of his season until May, and it’s taken him a while to get back into the swing of things. Last night provided some positives in that regard, as he went seven innings without visibly growing fatigued.
  • He has a $22 million option for 2013 that would certainly be declined. Why is that a positive? It means that the Yankees would have another arm in 2012, allowing them to bypass the one option on the 2012 free-agent market (C.J. Wilson) and focus on the 2013 market, which appears far more robust (Matt Cain, John Danks, Cole Hamels, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, and Jered Weaver).
  • The White Sox would probably love to shed his salary in 2012, perhaps kicking in money (maybe the $4 million buy-out for 2013) in exchange for a middling prospect. Again, this plays to the Yankees advantage of having deep pockets.

Cons

  • He hasn’t exactly been a bastion of health in the past few years, pitching just 200 innings since coming to the AL in July, 2009. His last injury, however, was a freak one — no MLB pitcher has been known to have completely torn a tendon off the bone — so that might mitigate the circumstances a bit. But only a bit.
  • His strikeouts are down from his peak, as is his velocity. He seems to have compensated by developing even better control over his pitches, but there could still be a learning curve. As we saw with Mike Mussina and even Freddy Garcia, it can take a while to acclimate oneself to a diminished arsenal.
  • In 17 starts last season, by far his largest continuous sample in the AL, he had a 4.01 FIP and 4.63 ERA in 107 innings — and that was while striking out nearly eight per nine innings.
  • The money owed him in 2012, even if the Sox pick up some, means that he’s a lock to remain in the rotation. So while that might be a good thing, it also might work against the Yanks if he can’t continue to improve his game while working with low-90s velocity.
  • As mentioned on YES last night, he seems to fade after he hits 75 pitches, which is about five innings of work. Even after he held the Yanks last night, opponents are still hitting .441/.444/.542 off him after pitch 75. That is, however, 22 singles, three doubles, a homer, and two walks, so there might be some luck there, too. But considering his recent injury history it could also be fatigue. Maybe last night was a sign that he’s getting stronger, but it’s hard to make a solid determination based on one start.
  • He’d fit right into a six-man rotation: on six-plus days’ rest this year opponents are hitting .266/.291/.352 off him in 128 PA, which is his biggest sampling of rest splits.

Given what we’ve seen and heard from Brian Cashman this year, I’d give this maybe a one-percent chance of happening. Maybe less. The Yankees are seeking only proven upgrades, and while Peavy at his best, or even near his best, is a definite upgrade, in his current incarnation he might be too big a risk. Win, and you have not only a pitcher for the stretch run and the playoffs, but also someone to fill a rotation spot next year as the Yankees await a big 2013 free agent class. Lose, and he’s an expensive 2012 liability that could make it difficult to field a top-notch rotation. But when we weigh his positives and negatives and then combine it with the expected costs and risks, I think he’s as good an option as any for the Yankees.

Categories : Trade Deadline
Comments (89)
Jan
09

Get well soon, Jake Peavy

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Peavy leaving the game. Check out that kid in the stands. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

On July 6th, 2010 Jake Peavy threw a 94 mph fastball off the outside corner to Mike Napoli.  He then grimaced in pain, held his pitching arm awkwardly, and took himself out of the game.  You can see the video of his injury here.  Peavy had detached his lattisimus dorsi, a broad muscle in the back, and soon underwent season-ending surgery to reattach the muscle.  At the time Will Carroll described his injury accordingly:

Peavy has pulled the muscle out at the insertion. That’s the point where it connects to the upper arm, as seen here. It’s not the best comparison, but if you’ve ever broken down a chicken, this is very similar, though obviously there’s a size (and species) difference. It’s the same kind of muscles and tendons that are pulled apart when taking the wings off before adding the delicious sauce.

Despite the gravity of the injury, Peavy’s surgery went well.  Nearly two months later Carroll updated readers on the status of Peavy’s injury, saying:

Remember when Peavy tore the muscle off the bone in his shoulder? He had the surgery back in early July and he’s making good progress. While he’s a ways off from throwing, he’s been cleared to begin a more involved rehab process including lifting weights and range of motion. Peavy is on track to be on a “normal” throwing program in January leading up to spring training.

The latest update, via CBSSports.com, is that Peavy is on track to begin a throwing program in early January.  White Sox GM Kenny Williams hasn’t put a timetable on Peavy’s return, but has also stated that he doesn’t expect him back for the start of the season. There’s a lot of runway between now and when Jake Peavy returns to the mound for the White Sox, but there is reason for Yankee fans to hope that he recovers in full.

Heading into the 2011 season, the White Sox may have the rare luxury of having more starters than spots in the rotation.  Along with Jake Peavy they boast Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Edwin Jackson.  They also have the option of using Chris Sale in the rotation.  Sale is a rail-thin hard-throwing lefty drafted by the White Sox in the first round of the 2010 draft.  He spent time in Chicago’s bullpen last summer, but is a starter by trade. Having Sale and a healthy Peavy may enable the White Sox to deal another one of their starters to fill holes elsewhere or to free up salary.  In fact, the White Sox seem to be thinking along the same lines.  Jon Heyman indicated as much in his Offseason Winners and Losers column a week ago, saying: “They flirted with the idea of trading Gavin Floyd, but appear to have decided they don’t want to touch their rotation until Jake Peavy returns.”

Before Cliff Lee broke our collective hearts and signed with Philadelphia, Mike reviewed Gavin Floyd as a possible alternative to signing Lee, concluding that Floyd would be an excellent Plan B.  Unfortunately, he noted that there were two big obstacles to the Yankees acquiring Floyd: the potential needs of the White Sox and the timing of the deal.  Mike wrote:

The problem I see is that the two teams don’t really line up for a trade. Williams asked the Rockies for third baseman Ian Stewart in return and the Yanks simply don’t have that kind of bat to give up. The ChiSox already have a speedy singles hitter in Pierre so Brett Gardner doesn’t do much of anything, and you know they won’t want Nick Swisher back. That leaves Curtis Granderson, but I can’t imagine the Yanks will cut bait on him so soon after all the progress he made late in the season. Based on the present construction of their team, the White Sox are trying to win now, so a bunch of prospects probably won’t cut it. I just don’t see how this would work from where I sit, but KW likes to do crazy stuff, so maybe he figures out a three team trade or something. I’m not sure if the timing will work out either, meaning the ChiSox might want to act and make a trade before Lee is ready to sign, but that’s the nature of the beast.

Fortunately, the question of when the White Sox may look to deal Floyd now appears more advantageous for the Yankees.  Cashman’s stated plan is “patience”, and if Andy Pettitte returns he might not attempt to do anything with the rotation until June or July.  The same questions regarding the White Sox’s potential needs still linger, though, despite a busy offseason.  This winter the White Sox have solidified their lineup with Konerko and Adam Dunn, and strengthened their bullpen by inking relievers Jesse Crain and Will Ohman to multiyear deals.  Despite that, the team has a few holes. They jettisoned Bobby Jenks, and it wasn’t a pretty ending, leaving Matt Thornton as the putative closer.  They’ve been linked to Rafael Soriano, but he appears to be out of their price range for now.  Their biggest hole remains at third base. Prospect Brent Morel has the inside track on the job, with Dayan Viciedo and Mark Teahen behind him on the depth chart, but it’s possible that Morel’s bat may not be strong enough for the position.  If so, the Sox may be looking for a replacement.

All told, a healthy Jake Peavy may enable the White Sox to deal one of their starters this summer.  Yet it’s difficult to handicap how the White Sox roster, and the trade market this summer, will firm up.  An unexpected injury could change everything.  This is the price of needing to find players on the trade market rather than acquiring them as free agents: you become increasingly reliant on the relative health, performance and goals of other organizations.  There is little that Cashman could have done differently, but it doesn’t change the fact that whether Gavin Floyd becomes available in a trade later this year may hinge simply on how well Jake Peavy’s lat muscle heals.

By way of introduction, my name is Stephen and I’m very excited to join the River Ave Blues weekend crew.  The best way to contact me is via my Twitter account or by email (stephen dot m dot rhoads at gmail).

Categories : Pitching
Comments (35)

We’ll pay this one lip service because there’s not a ton moving in baseball right now. We know that talks to send Jake Peavy to the Braves and to the Cubs have broken down, possibly beyond repair with the Braves. Peavy’s agent, Barry Axelrod, has said that while his client prefers the National League, he would consider moving to the Yankees, Angels, or Red Sox in the AL, but that’s it. So it comes as no surprise that we hear, via MLBTR, that Boston has “some” interest in Peavy. Of course they do. Just like they had some interest in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Check out this line, though, by Nick Cafardo at the end of the article:

“But if there’s a Teixeira splash, the Red Sox might not have the money to entertain it.”

Laughable. If the Red Sox wanted both Teixeira and Peavy, they could afford them. No question.

(By the way, don’t forget to submit your questions for the podcast.)

Categories : Asides
Comments (41)

MLB Trade Rumors notes that the Padres are no longer shopping Jake Peavy. According to the team CEO, Jake Peavy will be with the team on Opening Day. All of the Yankee fans who think our team should leap at the chance to acquire Peavy for nothing can come up with new and better trade proposals for other pitchers that aren’t going to be dealt this winter. Of course, this all could change in a moment’s notice, and Sandy Alderson may be bluffing to get other teams back to the table. I’m inclined to believe, however, that the Peavy talks are really and truly dead. He will remain a Padre, for now.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
Comments (63)

As Joe noted a short while ago, no one knows much of anything in Las Vegas. For Exhibit A, let’s take a look at yet another Jake Peavy rumor.

According to a tidbit in the Chicago Sun-Times, Jake Peavy wants to be a Cub, but seems to expect to land with the Yanks if the Cubs deal falls through. So, over the last few months, we’ve heard various rumors saying that the Yanks are in and out of the Peavy deal, that Peavy doesn’t want to leave the NL or the NL West or doesn’t mind coming to New York, that he will or won’t be traded to the Cubs or the Braves.

Basically, this is a prime example of no one knowing anything. No one knows anything about Peavy. No one really knows anything about CC Sabathia‘s state of mind, the Angels’ intentions with Mark Teixeira, or what’s going on in Manny’s head. So when you start reading reports about what players want or don’t want, take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Hat tip to Will in Chicago for e-mailing this one in.

Categories : Hot Stove League
Comments (47)
Nov
19

As the Peavy turns

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Are they or aren’t they? That seems to be the question surrounding the Jake Peavy trade talks. While yesterday, Peter Gammons claimed that the Yankees were not in the running for Peavy, today, Ken Rosenthal has a conflicting report.

Writes Kenny:

The Yankees’ farm system is strong enough to match up with the Padres if the teams revive their discussions on right-hander Jake Peavy. The Padres, according to one major-league source, told the Yankees that a deal would be possible even if the Yankees declined to offer right-hander Phil Hughes.

The Padres scouted Hughes in a recent Arizona Fall League game, but the Yankees have zero intention of trading him.

There is, of course, one problem. Joel Sherman, the man behind yesterday’s five-year/$80-million A.J. Burnett offer that was shot down before the day was out (Oops. That was George King. The Post writers are all the same to me.), claims that Jake Peavy will not pitch for the Yankees. (If you insist on a link, tough. You know where to find Sherman, and you all should know our position on linking to The Post.)

Now over the last few weeks, we’ve heard a lot of back and forth on Peavy. Some claim he’ll pitch in New York; others say he won’t leave the NL or at least Southern California. Who knows? Certainly not Ken Rosenthal’s or Joel Sherman’s sources with any degree of certainty. If the unnamed folks knew, we wouldn’t be engaged in some investigation into Jake Peavy’s true motives.

What does seem clear, however, is that the Padres are viewing this trade more and more in terms of a salary dump. If the Padres are willing to put it out there that this deal can be consummated without Phil Hughes, they’re signaling that they need to dump Peavy’s contract while losing some negotiating leverage.

In the end, I doubt that this trade will get done or ever come close to completion, but it does provide us an interesting exercise in interpreting unsourced rumors and varying positions. In other words, don’t read too much into anything that isn’t a done deal.

Categories : Hot Stove League
Comments (129)
Nov
17

It’s P-E-A-V-Y

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Just to rib the people involved in the Jake Peavy discussion, here’s something you can keep in mind when spelling his last name.

This is a Peavey:

This is a Peavy:

Any questions?

Categories : Whimsy
Comments (43)

The back-and-forth on Jake Peavy and the Yanks continued today with Buster Olney’s offering up his take on the rumors that just won’t die. According to Olney’s latest blog post on ESPN.com (Insider-only), the Padres and the Yanks probably won’t be consummating a deal anytime soon.

Writes Olney:

he past conversations between the Padres and the Yankees about Jake Peavy never developed into anything that close to being serious, sources say, and it’s highly unlikely the Padres and Yankees will ever get serious about a Peavy deal.

The Yankees are focused almost entirely on adding pitching through free agency, because they won’t have to part with their prospects in a deal. CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett are the Yankees’ targets, and not Peavy.

So, in practice, two things would have to happen before Peavy-to-the-Yankees became serious:

1. A whole bunch of other pursuits would have to end badly.

2. The price on Peavy would have to come down.

I know a lot of Yankee fans would like to see Peavy in pinstripes; I know others who think trading for him would be a bad move. I’d much prefer Peavy over Lowe or Burnett at the right price. I think he represents a better long-term investment and will be a better pitcher over the duration of their respective contracts.

That said, I can understand why the Yanks don’t want to give up the farm for Peavy. I can understand why they’d rather go after the free agents. But if the Yanks sign CC, and the price on Peavy drops, it would be hard to say no to that deal. It might not be accurate for us to seriously evaluate this potential acquisition right now, but things have a funny way of changing in the Hot Stove League.

Categories : Hot Stove League
Comments (240)

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Yanks and Padres held “numerous discussions” about Jake Peavy during the GM meetings. Supposedly, the Braves and Cubs, Peavy’s top two destinations, are out of the running, and this trade may come down to the Yanks and Angels. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say that whichever of these two teams doesn’t land CC Sabathia will push hard for Peavy.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
Comments (98)

Padres GM Kevin Towers doesn’t believe he can work out a deal between his team and the Cubs or Braves for Jake Peavy. So the Yankees and Angels may be next in line. Meanwhile, David Pinto believes the Yanks could land Peavy for Kei Igawa, Ian Kennedy and an outfielder. If that outfielder isn’t Austin Jackson, I don’t think that package would net them Peavy unless the Padres really wanted out of that contract. Either way, I’d rather just give up money to land CC Sabathia than prospects and spare parts for Peavy.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
Comments (111)