Archive for Joba Chamberlain
Getting up to speed with Joba Chamberlain
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The Pitch F/X chart of Joba’s fastball velocity over time. (Click to enlarge in a new window)
As Joba Chamberlain skyrocketed his way through the Yankee organization as a starter, the book on him was velocity. During his 2006 appearance in the Hawaiian leagues, Joba was, according to Baseball America’s 2007 prospect list, sitting at 94-97 with his fastball.
The following year, John Manuel had even more glowing praise to offer the Yanks’ youngster. “He reached 100 mph with his fastball as a reliever,” Manuel wrote as he anointed Joba as the Yanks’ top prospect in 2008, “and more impressively can sit at 96-97 mph when he starts.”
Last season, as the Yanks transitioned Joba from Major League reliever to a Major League starter, we saw the velocity and the stuff with our own eyes. Pitching out of the rotation from June until August 4, Joba lived in the upper 90s. His fastball would range from around 94 mph to 100, occasionally dipping lower but not by much. His average was always at 95 or above.
As we all know, on August 4, disaster struck. Joba had to leave a start in Texas — the same mound upon which Phil Hughes ruptured his hamstring in 2007 — with a sore shoulder. He would miss much of August and would return to the bullpen in September. Outside of one or two appearances, his velocity in September was far lower than it had been as a starter in 2008 or as a reliever in 2007 and 2008. He was sitting in the low 90s with peaks at around 97 and an average of around 92. On the season, his final fastball average was 95.2.
This year has seen Joba pick up where he left off in September. Early on in the season, I raised an eyebrow at Joba’s velocity but chalked it up to April. Power pitchers can take a few starts to warm up, and as April turned to May, Joba’s fastball creeped up past those 95- and 96-mph marks. And then it didn’t.
Two back-to-back starts at the end of May and beginning of June highlighted the velocity discrepancies. Against the Rangers in May, Joba’s fastball averaged just over 90 mph, and he peaked around 93. Against the Indians five days later, he had the best fastball of the year, averaging just under 95 and peaking at just over 97. He hasn’t really reached that level yet.
Last night, as the game wore on, Michael Kay, Kenny Singleton and Paul O’Neill noted that Joba’s velocity just wasn’t there. While Joba dialed it up to 95.3 at one point, the velocity histogram from Pitch F/X shows that he was sitting mostly below 91. On the night, his average velocity was again at 92 mph.
At this point, I don’t know what to make of this, and I don’t know why Joba has seemingly lost three miles per hour on his fastball following a shoulder injury last August. If he were hurt, the Yanks wouldn’t be sending him out there every five days, and the team has to be aware of this dip in velocity as well.
For now, it’s not hurting the Yanks. They’re 10-5 in games Joba starts, and while he’s not giving them distance, he’s still striking out better than eight men per nine innings pitched. It’s worth noting too that his breaking pitches haven’t seen a concurrent drop in velocity either. In fact, his curveball is a bit faster this year than it was last year. That’s a different topic altogether but one that could explain Joba’s problems putting hitters away.
Furthermore, moving Joba to the bullpen simply isn’t the answer. If his velocity is lower now as a starter than it was last year also as a starter, it is illogical to assume that he would magically rediscover six or eight miles per hour as a reliever.
As I said, I have no answers. I don’t even know if we should worry about it, per se. It’s something to watch as the season drags on, and if, by the end of the year, the velocity hasn’t returned, then we can start to wonder about the long-term implications of Joba Chamberlain’s Amazing Disappearing Fastball.
A tale of two pitchers
Posted by: | CommentsOn April 26, 2007, the Yankees found themselves without a starting pitcher, and so a few months — or possibly a year — ahead of schedule, they handed the ball over to a 20-year-old right-hander named Phil Hughes. A few months later, on August 7, 2007, they again found themselves short a pitcher. This time, the team needed a reliever, and they found one in a young flamethrowing starter nearing his innings limit named Joba Chamberlain.
Over the course of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Joba’s and Phil’s paths diverged. Almost immediately, Joba established himself as someone who could thrive in a high-pressure situation on the big stage. The brash kid from Nebraska emerged as a dominant set-up man, faltering only when a swarm of bugs attacked him. When the Yanks, amidst much criticism, moved him back to his natural spot in the starting rotation, he still thrived. Armed with the confidence he built up in the pen, he has emerged, at 23, as a kid on the way to Major League stardom.
Hughes, on the other hand, saw his fortunes follow a different path. His first start was nothing spectacular, and he couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning against the Blue Jays. Five days later though, he was dealing. Through 6.1 innings, he was no-hitting the Rangers in Texas when his hamstring popped.
For much of the next 18 months, Hughes would deal with the fallout from this injury. He came back by the end of the year but seemed tentative on the mound. He didn’t want to land too hard on his front leg or overstride again. In 2008, given a spot in the starting rotation, he couldn’t hold it. He went 0-4 and landed on the DL for much of the year with a mechanics-induced stress fracture in one of his ribs.
While he was still just 22 when the 2008 season ended, scouts and talent evaluators wondered if Hughes was destined to be a — I shudder to type it — bust. He was 5-7 with a 5.15 ERA in 21 starts spanning 106.1 innings. He wasn’t giving the team depth or getting outs.
When the Yanks called upon Hughes this year, the results looked disappointingly similar to his 2008 effort at first. He got shelled in Baltimore, and Yankee fans were wondering what the hype was about. But Hughes took his bad outing in stride. In four starts after it, before ceding his spot to Chien-Ming Wang, he went 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in 23 innings. Even better were his 23 strike outs and seven walks over that span. This was the first sign of the Hughes we had expected.
When Wang returned, the Yankees pulled a reverse Joba on Hughes. They knew he could contribute at the Major League level, and they knew they would need someone to step in if or when Wang proved to be ineffective. Phil Hughes in the pen though has been a revelation. He has thrown 12 innings with a 1.50 ERA. He has given up just two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out 15. He has flashed that mid-to-upper 90s fastball we had heard about but never seen before. He was throwing with renewed confidence and ability, and he is not shy about admitting it.
Of course, as New York is the unnecessary debate capital of the world, the voices grew loud. “Let’s keep Phil Hughes in the pen,” they screamed. “He can be the bridge to Mariano.” The Yankees would have none of it. As Bryan Hoch noted in his Monday mailbag, the Yanks have tried to shut down this faux-debate before it grows too loud. “Anybody who is a good starter is going to be a hell of a setup guy, I promise you. Anybody who has a plus fastball and a plus secondary pitch would make a great setup guy or closer, in theory. But it’s not the same,” Brian Cashman said. It’s not the same because starting pitching is far more valuable than relief pitching.
Young pitchers can be certainly be used effectively in the pen. Joba was able to contribute at the big league level while facing an innings cap in 2007. He got to know the competition and Major League life. For Phil, the pen has restored his spot atop the Yankee pitching prospect pecking order. He struggled in the early going, as young 20-somethings are wont to do, but he has learned this year that he can succeed as a starter and let loose as a reliever. As baseball psychology goes, this move has worked wonders so far for a pitcher on whom the Yankees are counting in the near future.
That is what it’s about. The Yanks are no B-Jobbers or B-Hughesers, pushing for a permanent move to the pen. Rather, there is a team with a plan learning how, after years of producing nothing out of the farm, to develop a young pitcher who has mastered the minors but not yet gotten a handle on the majors. While 12 innings is of course a small sample, we are watching Phil Hughes arrive, and it looks good.
Quick Hits: Bruney, Chipper, Mo
Posted by: | CommentsGot a few tabs open that don’t really warrant a post of their own, so let’s stick them all here:
- Marc Carig reports that Brian Bruney is using a portable hyperbaric chamber for his elbow. Apparently it’s worked for him in the past. They make portable versions of those things now?
- PeteAbe says that Joba Chamberlain asked Chipper Jones for an autographed jersey. The Braves were really the first team with national exposure because of TBS, so there are tons and tons of people out there who grew up Braves fans.
- Tyler Kepner has a slew of odds and ends from Atlanta. Although he didn’t reveal the exact amount, Brian Cashman did say that the team received more than the $20,000 waiver fee from the Indians for Jose Veras. Sounds like no one was interested in a player-for-player deal, so Cash took the best offer he could get.
- T-Kep also notes that the Yanks paid just $1 when they acquired Chris Stewart from the White Sox before the season, and that Phil Hughes‘ birthday present to himself was a tattoo from Nick Swisher’s tattoo guy.
- Joel Sherman writes about the amazing Mariano Rivera and the pursuit of his 500th career save. Mo is sitting at 498 after last night. We all know that wins and saves are highly overrated and essentially meaningless stats, but the 500 save & 300 win plateaus are amazing accomplishments just because of the longevity they represent. This was probably worth a mention in Ben’s Mariano Rivera Appreciate Thread, but whatever.
- In case you missed the late update to DotF last night, Casey Fossum used an out in his contract and elected to become a free agent. It hasn’t been confirmed, but it looks like Ivan Nova might get bumped up from Double-A Trenton to take his rotation spot.
- Finally, for posterity’s sake, the Yanks DFA’d Angel Berroa yesterday when they activated Cody Ransom. While everyone and their mothers already knows this news, we neglected to mention it yesterday. Berroa will be fondly remembered for making outs in 21 of his 24 Yankee plate appearances and for somehow lasting nearly two months on the team.
Joba, Posada acknowledge communication issues
Posted by: | CommentsAs Joba Chamberlain was busy walking everyone and their mother in Friday night’s Subway Series opener, Jorge Posada was busying visiting the mound between what seemed like every pitch. Yesterday, the two acknowledged the obvious: They were having trouble communicating, mostly about pitch selection. Posada said he was trying to speed Joba up to improve his tempo, while the pitcher said he was out of rhythm. As much as we all love you Joba, you’re 23. Listen to Jorge.
Observation: Joba should listen to Jorge
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s a common meme in the comments — not only here, but on other blogs and message boards — that Jorge Posada does not call a good game. I admit to having similar thoughts from time to time, but then I think to the pitching staffs Jorge has handled in the past. Few of them had any problems. The problems with the Yanks starting pitching began, without a doubt, when they trotted out an inferior staff, starting in 2004. Jorge, in other words, has worked with lesser pitchers in general since the days of Roger, Andy, Wells, Cone, Duque, Mussina, et al.
We all know Jorge has an abrasive personality. If he doesn’t like something he’s not going to sugar coat it. The media has often observed that while Derek Jeter’s leaderships stems from the example he sets, Jorge is the more vocal presence in the clubhouse. He will let you know when you screw up, and if you have something coming to you, you can bet Jorge’s the one to deliver it.
Pitchers, it is said, have fragile egos. Clearly that’s a generalization and doesn’t extent to pitchers a baseball species. There are many pitchers, though, who don’t like that tough-minded catcher personality. Hence, a number of pitchers over the years have preferred to work with the backup catcher, whether that be Molina in the last year and a half or Cervelli this year. This isn’t to say that the pitchers in question — most notably Mussina and Sabathia — can’t handle Posada. It’s that their styles don’t exactly match up.
Mussina and Sabathia know what they’re doing. They know their bodies and their know their repertoire. They know situations and what to throw in different ones. Jorge has his own ideas. Jorge has a strong personality. Perhaps Jorge is just a bit over-assertive in these cases with veteran pitchers. It can, after all, be frustrating for both parties when Jorge wants a fastball and the pitcher knows he can bury a curve to finish off the batter.
This leads me to the title of this post. Last night, Joba was shaking off Jorge left and right. Jorge would signal, Joba would shake. That process would repeat a few times. This led to a number of mound visits so the two could talk over the situation. The two went through this a number of times in the super-long third inning. They were not on the same page, and I’m sure that was evident to anyone watching. However, when Joba got his way — which was basically when you saw him throw a breaking ball in a questionable count — he was all over the place.
After yet another walk, you could see Jorge walk halfway out to the mound and say something. I was watching the SNY broadcast so I don’t know if his words were shown on the YES counterpart. However, I imagine he said something to the effect of “now we do it my way.” From that point on we saw Joba throw more fastballs and — surprise surprise — more strikes.
Joba is only 23 years old. He might think that hanging out with vets like CC and Burnett makes him a better pitcher, but all the talk in the world will not make him older and wiser. The idiocy of youth is still present in a 23-year-old, and Joba certainly shows it sometimes. He’s a very good pitcher. We can all see that in his stuff. However, he needs to step back and recognize where he is right now. He needs to listen to his catcher. From the way I watched the game last night, it seemed like he was much better when he did.
This, of course, is just an observation and is not based on some kind of insider knowledge. I do want to foster this discussion, though. Should Joba just listen to what Jorge says? I vote yes. Jorge’s not always right — he called for a curve when Wright was down 0-2, but Robertson knew that an outside fastball would do the trick. In general, though, Joba needs to have more faith in his fastball and throw it when Jorge calls it. Whether the radar gun reads 91 or 96, he still pumps that thing, and it’s a veritable weapon. If he commands that — and to command it one must throw it often — he’ll be fine. If he insists on using his (good) breaking stuff too often, he’ll work up his pitch count as he did last night.
Yanks: Joba’s shoulder not an issue
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday, relying on an unsourced rumor from Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto, we noted how Joba’s shoulder may be preventing any move to the bullpen. While the Yankees are clearly not going to move Joba to the pen any time soon, we eventually understood Perrotto’s piece to say that, while Joba’s shoulder is not injured, the Yanks may not believe he can warm up efficiently to be a reliever without putting too much stress on his shoulder.
Following up on our report, Marc Carig of The Star-Ledger asked Joe Girardi and Joba Chamberlain about any possible shoulder issues concerning the Yanks’ young ace. Both denied the report, sort of. Carig writes:
Is Joba Chamberlain a starter only because a shoulder problem prevents the pitcher from warming up fast enough to work out of the bullpen? Not so says the pitcher and Yankees manager Joe Girardi…”Not at all,” Chamberlain said after his start on Monday night. “I don’t know where that came from.”
Girardi also denied the snippet, which was listed under the “AL Rumors and Rumblings” section of Perrotto’s column on Sunday. “That’s not the reason we haven’t put him in the bullpen,” Girardi said. “The reason we haven’t put him in the bullpen is because we envision him as a starter.”
Now, with the way Carig posed the question, the Yanks had an out. Joba isn’t a starter only because of a shoulder problem; he’s a starter because that’s why he was drafted and that’s where his talent and values lie. In fact, Girardi said as much to the Yankee reporters.
What Perrotto reported though is that Joba hasn’t been warming up quickly. We witnessed that last month with his first inning troubles, and it has long been the case that starters need longer to warm up that relievers.
In the end, Joba is a starter now and in the future. The Yankees know this, and the team also recognizes that flipping him back and forth between the pen and the rotation is not the best for his long-term health. As Joba approaches his innings limit over the summer, the Yanks will have to come up with some plans for his arm. Right now, though, he’s healthy and throwing as well as he has in his brief Major League career.
Perrotto: Joba’s shoulder preventing bullpen move anyway
Posted by: | CommentsBuried in the “Rumors and Rumblings” section at the bottom of John Perrotto’s weekend roundup column on Baseball Prospectus was an intriguing note about Joba Chamberlain. “The Yankees couldn’t move right-hander Joba Chamberlain from the rotation back to the bullpen if they wanted to at this time, because shoulder problems make it too difficult for him to warm up quickly.”
Bullpen considerations aside, I have to wonder about the veracity of this rumor. If Joba had a known shoulder problem, the Yankees would not be trotting him out there every five days. They care too much about and are too focus on Joba’s future to risk his health in the short term. A shoulder problem, however, would explain the downward trend in fastball velocity Joba has been displaying since his August 2008 injury.
One of the logical fallacies of the B-Jobber argument is that Joba could go from throwing 91 mile-per-hour fastballs, as he was last week in Texas, to throwing 98 out of the pen. That simply isn’t true, and right now, this rumor puts into print something many fans have been wondering about Joba. For now, it is simply a rumor, but we’ll keep our eyes on it.
A mid-Saturday Joba roundup
Posted by: | CommentsOn Thursday we spent a couple of posts talking about Joba Chamberlain’s role. While we talk, analyze, and debate, the Yankees are surely doing the same. They want to make sure they handle their roster and farm system in the manner which benefits them best in both the short- and long-term. It’s not easy, of course, with different roster permutations bringing different results.
Since Ben, Mike, and I have made it clear what we think the Yankees should do, perhaps today we should listen to what the Yankees themselves are thinking. Thankfully, they’ve provided some fodder in the way of quotes. We’ll start with Joe Girardi via Pete Caldera:
Quickly, here’s what Joe Girardi said when asked about the possibility of Joba Chamberlain heading to the bullpen to accomodate Chien-Ming Wang: “That is not something we’ve talked about.”
As Pete notes, that’s not to say that they won’t talk about it. For now, though, it appears there are no plans to mess with Joba’s role. Which is a good thing. As I wrote on Thursday (in the very first link in this post), the Yankees have no reason to make any moves right now. They have a good problem. With Wang, Hughes, and Chamberlain still out to prove something to some degree or another, the Yankees can afford to move forward in this manner and reassess in a few weeks. Not many teams have this luxury.
The new Newsday beat writer Erik Boland has some quotes from Cashman on the situation; “It’s just a topic we have to deal with,” Cashman said, stating the obvious. But then he lays into B-Jobbers (again, our euphemism for those who want Joba in the pen):
“That’s all crap,” he said. “Wake up and smell the coffee. If he’s on national television on ESPN and throws 91 on the 22nd pitch, why would you think if he comes in in the eighth inning protecting a 4-3 lead [he'd throw 96]? Stop, he’s a starter.”
It’s hard to get more definitive than that. “Stop, he’s a starter.” Good to see Cashman sticking to his guns on this one. It’s frustrating to watch Joba struggle during the first innings of his starts, but the idea is to keep working him and get him used to the role. The man has, after all, been a starter his entire life.
Meanwhile, Tyler Kepner compares Joba to Johan Santana. Others have made this comparison too, and for good reason. Santana started off in the Twins’ bullpen, though he certainly wasn’t the designated eighth inning guy. The Twins saw the talent they had on hand and transitioned Johan to the rotation in mid-2003. By the time the playoffs started he was their Game 1 starter, and the next season he won the Cy Young. Despite Joba’s relative struggles in the rotation this year, his ERA is still two full points better than Santana’s through each player’s first 21 career starts (each had his 21st start at age 23). Joba also has a better K/9 at that point, and has fewer walks in more innings pitched.
Still, the best commentary for this comes from a comment to Kepner’s post:
I no longer believe that Joba should be moved to the bullpen. Instead, as I’ve posted twice elsewhere, I strongly believe that he should be moved completely out of the Yankees organization. He is an over-rated distraction. if the Yankees spent one-fourth the energy they’ve spent on Joba on either Wang (who is a proven winner) or Hughes (who shows great character) or Aceves (who shows great resolve), the team would be much better off. We would be best served by just trading Joba for a potential Mariano replacement—if anyone would be willing to take him off the Yankees’ hands.
Quick! Get this guy on Jimmy Fallon’s writing team. They’d increase the comedic talent tenfold with this MSS Rao guy.
In all seriousness, I’ve had a discussion like this with Mike, Ben, and a number of friends over the past few days. It boils down to this: 1) The Yankees could trade Joba straight up for any closer in the game right now. Not only that, but the other GM would be in a rush to get it done, in case Cashman decided to change his mind. 2) If the Yankees did trade Joba to another team, he’d be in that team’s rotation. The question, of course, is why Yankees fans want their team to play by different rules. I understand doing things differently in an attempt to exploit inefficiencies. But since when is putting a guy in the bullpen at the cost of a long-term rotation cog exploiting an inefficiency?
We’ve presented our argument numerous times, and obviously feel it is a stronger one than the Joba to the bullpen counterpart. It doesn’t mean we’re right, per se; baseball isn’t always black and white like that. But because of baseball’s random nature, it’s best to find the optimal strategy and stick to it. If you follow a good process, good results will follow, even though they won’t follow in every instance. Still, the debate will rage on, even if Joba turns a corner and starts pitching into the seventh with regularity. Hell, it will probably rage on even if he gets to 100 wins and picks up a Cy Young. To that extent, Joe Girardi has the last line:
“The good thing about the presidential debates is that they end. … This one doesn’t.”
