Archive for Joba Chamberlain
Yanks face a few postseason decisions
Posted by: | CommentsThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
Two solid outings but no clear fourth starter
Posted by: | CommentsEvery time Chad Gaudin and Joba Chamberalin take the mound this month, they are auditioning for the Yankees. They aren’t really trying out for much beyond two post-season starts, but these outings constitute auditions nonetheless. After two solid outings from both pitchers over the last four games, the Yanks’ fourth starter picture remains cloudy.
Joba, as we know, has been bad. After three strong starts to begin the season’s second half, he is now 5-4 with a 5.37 ERA after the All-Star Break. In 63.2 innings, he has given up 30 walks and 63 hits while striking out 51.
After a series of horrendous outings in late August and early September, Joba seemed to turn it around on Friday when he went 6 innings in a win. He allowed three earned runs on five hits while walking just one and striking out five. More important, however, was Joba’s opponent, as he seemingly broke out of his slump against the Red Sox, a potential ALCS enemy of the Yanks.
Meanwhile, Chad Gaudin has been more than serviceable as the team’s fifth starter since coming to the Yanks. He has made six starts and has thrown 32 innings. While Joe Girardi has kept him on a short leash, Gaudin hasn’t lost as a Yankee starter and owns a win. In those innings, he has given up 28 hits and 15 walks while striking out 23. His ERA as a Yankee starter is 3.09.
Yesterday, Gaudin did what he had to do in his audition. Against a weak Royals team, he went 6.2 innings and gave up a pair of runs on four hits, two walks and five strikeouts. He threw 57 of 92 pitches for strikes and generally coasted through the game.
In one sense, this past weekend did nothing to illuminate the Yanks’ pitching plans going forward. As soon as Detroit or the Twins clinch the Central, the Yanks will opt for the longer ALDS, and the fourth starter issue won’t come to a head unless and until the Yanks reach the American League Championship Series. Even then, we’ve burned a lot of pixels arguing over which pitcher stands to make two or perhaps three postseason starts.
Yet, in a way, this issue is important for Joba Chamberlain. If the Yanks are confident in Joba’s abilities and his arm strength, they will give him the ball. He has, after all, been the fourth starter for the entire 2009 season. He has stayed healthy and has generally given the Yanks a chance to win games. After all, the Yanks are 20-10 in his games. But the Bombers are undefeated in Gaudin’s six starts, and the team won’t overlook that fact either.
Right now, I have no answer, and when we have no answer, we do what bloggers do best: We poll the audience. So as we count down the hours until tonight’s Yankee game, riddle me this one. I voted for Joba, but I don’t think the Yanks could make a wrong choice here.
Joba Joba Joba
Posted by: | CommentsThree months ago, I would have been excited about a mid-season match-up between Jon Lester and Joba Chamberlain. After all, these two young pitchers – one a lefty, one a righty – could be the faces of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry for years to come. While most Yankee fans are down on Joba right now and many of us see a match-up with Lester as, well, a mismatch, we can still look to tonight’s game as a sign of things to come.
The Red Sox and Lester know what their plan is. Supplanting Josh Beckett as the team’s ace, Lester will start Game 1 of Boston’s ALDS series, and he deserves it. He’s 14-7 on the year with a 3.33 ERA. In 30 starts spanning 194.2 innings, he has allowed 176 hits and 60 walks while striking out 215 or 9.9 per 9 innings pitched. For the Sox, Lester has been better and more consistent than Beckett. Still, those two are a fearsome duo atop Boston’s rotation.
Against the Sox tonight, the Yanks are countering with their fourth or perhaps fifth starter. We know how bad Joba has been; we don’t need to rehash the numbers. But Joba knows that he is pitching tonight with something – pride, a postseason roster spot – on the line. In a conversation with Mark Feinsand, Joba stressed his desire to “
“It’s great for everybody to get that feeling, to play in that atmosphere,” Chamberlain said. “October is a little different, so it helps being able to play teams like Boston in this kind of series. Coming down the stretch, trying to finish strong and set the tone will be good. People are going to be getting excited for October, so it’s going to be crazy.”
It will be crazy, but that’s besides the point. Joba Chamberlain is pitching for more than just a crazed crowed of 49,000 fans tonight. Fair or not, he’s pitching for his reputation. The truth is that if he doesn’t throw 5 innings of two-run ball, Yankee fans will not be happy to see Joba Chamberlain enter this game or exit the game. Even though Joba will reach 150 innings tonight, even though he’s never thrown this many innings in one season, it’s still do-or-die for him in the eyes of he fans.
We won’t write off Joba. He turned 24 this week, and despite his bad end to the season, he acquitted himself nicely during this year against the American League. He will make 31 starts, and he will have stayed healthy throughout the season. As he grows up and matures, he’ll only get better. As the game starts tonight, though, look at Jon Lester and think about what another year can do. If Joba can improve as Lester has each year in the Majors, this disappointing end to 2009 will in time be forgotten.
Cashman: ‘No assumptions’ Joba will pitch in Oct.
Posted by: | CommentsAnyone watching the Yankees knows that Joba Chamberlain’s last seven weeks have been tumultuous to say the least. Since starting the second half 3-0, Joba has gone 1-4 with an 8.25 ERA over his last nine starts. Limited to just 36 innings, Joba has allowed 50 hits and 21 walks while striking out just 27. Opponents are hitting .327/.409/.523, and whether we blame the Joba Rules, the extreme media attention to him, fatigue or the Moon’s current position in retrograde, everyone agrees that Joba Chamberlain has stunk up the joint lately.
While on Sunday, Joe Girardi half-heartedly committed himself to Joba in October, the Yanks’ GM was singing a different tune to Pete Caldera today. In an interview with The Record scribe, Cashman explained how Joba will have to earn a postseason roster spot. “He needs to declare himself. He’s no different than anyone else,” Cashman said. “Everybody loves his tenacity. But we’re going to take the best 10 guys. There’s no assumptions there.”
This is, of course, a warning and a threat from Brian Cashman. It’s probably an effort to light a fire under Joba, and we all know Joba could use something to spur him on. It is also an indication to watch closely tonight. In Anaheim, Chad Gaudin will take the ball and face the AL West-leading Angels. While we toss around the phrase “playoff preview” as a joke, Gaudin’s start tonight is a playoff preview. If he can hold down the Angels, he will, for better or worse, begin to inch ahead of Joba on the Yanks’ October depth charts.
So with Joba’s job in jeopardy, the Yankees will have to fill in a postseason roster somehow. Brian Cashman’s comment — “we’re going to take the best 10 guys” — gives us a starting point for a talk. The mortal locks include CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, some guy named Mariano, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves. That leaves us with three spots for Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin, Damaso Marte, David Robertson, Jonathan Albaladejo, Edwar Ramirez, Sergio Mitre and Mark Melancon.
We can, after last night, dispatch with Brian Bruney. His ERA as a reliever isn’t horrible, but since Aug. 1, he has allowed 29 base runners in 16 innings. Over that stretch, he is sporting an ugly 3:4 K:BB ratio. He claimed his mechanics were fine, but the results aren’t there. Sergio Mitre, Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez belong in the same boat. None has have much to offer.
Melancon is an intriguing candidate because he is a highly-touted prospect, but he hasn’t sported very good control at the Major League level. He is striking out and walking 5.5 men per 9 IP and has a propensity toward hitting batters. The Yankees will, however, probably take Damaso Marte just to deploy him against lefties. His numbers are bad, but the stuff has always been tantalizing. Having two lefties in the pen would do wonders for the Yanks.
In the end, then, the Joba decision will come down to two factors. There is first the David Roberston factor. If the Yanks’ unheralded middle relief specialist can come back strong this weekend, he will join the mortal locks. After watching Bruney and Albaladejo cough up the game last night, Robertson can’t come back fast enough.
If Robertson is healthy, then, the debate will be Gaudin vs. Joba. And there we are, back to tonight’s game. Chad Gaudin and Joba Chamberlain, whether they realize or not, are auditioning for the same playoff spot. With 11 games left, this battle is the season within the season. While the last man standing so to speak won’t be that determinative of the Yanks’ October chances, we will get to see just how much faith the Yanks have in Joba Chamberlain right now.
Looking beyond Joba for some fourth options
Posted by: | CommentsDuring the post-game interviews after the Yanks’ disappointing loss to Seattle on Sunday afternoon, Joba Chamberlain offered up his own assessment of his sub-par start. It wasn’t quite what the rabid New York media and judgmental Yankee fans wanted to hear, and it reminded many of some brash statements Ian Kennedy made during early 2008.
“My delivery was great,” he said. “I threw some great changeups. My slider velocity was great. My fastball velocity was more consistent.”
Nothing that Joba said there was a lie. As Steve S. as The Yankee Universe wrote nearly two weeks ago, Joba’s fastball velocity is right where it should be based on his scouting reports, and Sunday’s start was no exception. Joba flashed a decent fastball and a biting slider. What he did not do was control his pitches or take any responsibility for his bad spate of starts.
As reporters continued to pepper him with questions about his confidence and his health, Joba continued to sound calm, restrained and focus. “It’s going to take a lot more than this to get my confidence level down, I’ll tell you that much,” he said. “You can kick me as much as you want but I’m going to come back fighting every time. That’s how I live this live and that’s how I play this game of baseball.”
Joe Girardi, meanwhile, during his post-game interviews, seemed more guarded in his assessment of Joba’s start. Noting that Chamberlain had no control on Sunday, he talked about how Joba’s final two tune-ups — or auditions — are going to weight on the Yanks’ October choices. “His next start is important,” Girardi said. “It’s real important and we have to get him throwing the baseball the way he can.”
When asked if Joba had a lock on a post-season start, Girardi all but guaranteed it. “He’s one of the guys who have gotten us to that point, and we’ll continue to go with Joba,” he said, “for now.” With that final “for now,” Girardi was clearing hedging his bets.
With just 12 games remaining this year, the Yankees are running out of time to play with their pitching rotation. They need to get A.J. Burnett his starts for consistency’s sake. They want get CC Sabathia a shot as his 20th win. Andy Pettitte has to demonstrate that his shoulder is healthy. Joba Chamberlain has to get himself sorted out.
But what if the Yankees decided to give the fourth starter spot in October to someone else? Joba Chamberlain has never thrown this many innings, and the physical toll of this season could be responsible for this inconsistencies more than media attention or the Yanks’ plans are. Furthermore, the Yanks have won in October with Kenny Rogers and Denny Neagle in that spot. They don’t need an ace there.
The most obvious candidate is Chad Gaudin. Currently, the Yanks’ fifth starter, Gaudin will make two more starts as well this year. As a Yankee, Gaudin has thrown 29.1 innings with an ERA of 3.68. He has allowed 30 hits while walking 16 and striking out 24. His WHIP is a bit higher than we would prefer, but the Yankees are 4-0 in his starts. He gets the job done.
After Gaudin comes Alfredo Aceves. The Mexican Gangster has been a long-relief specialist for the Yankees. Shadowing Joba for much of the last few weeks, he hasn’t thrown since Sept. 14. He figures to be on alert should Andy Pettitte’s shoulder give out against the Angels tonight. He has generally stellar numbers and could make a start in a pinch.
The darkhorse candidate is Ian Kennedy. Prior to coming down with an aneurysm, Kennedy was 1-0 in four AAA starts in April. Over 22.2 innings, he had allowed just four earned runs (1.59 ERA) on 18 hits and 7 walks with 25 strike outs. He would have been given a shot this summer had he not been injured. After his injury, he came back and threw five scoreless innings over two Minor League playoff starts. If Kennedy gets a shot to pitch in the Bronx and does well, he could very well emerge as an October option. He’s due to pitch in the Arizona Fall League as the ALDS starts, and the Yanks could use his innings in a potential ALCS series instead.
Also on the team are Phil Hughes, Sergio Mitre and Josh Towers. Neither Mitre nor Towers is the answer, and while we salivate at the prospects of Phil Hughes starting, the Yankees need him in the pen. He can’t be stretched out right now, and his value in October will rest with his 8th inning appearances.
In the end, the Yankees’ fourth starter position for the playoffs is Joba’s to lose, and he might just lose it. It’s hard to see the Yanks calling on him from the pen in the ALDS. He may end up off the roster in the first round and marginalized in the ALCS if the Yanks get there. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Joba or the Yankees.
Quick hits form Heyman on Pettitte, Posada, Joba
Posted by: | CommentsIn his recent column, SI’s Jon Heyman has three quick bullet points on the Yanks. Nothing big, but there are a few discussion-worthy topics.
Andy Pettitte begged the Yankees to keep pitching through his shoulder fatigue — though it appears he’s going to make almost all his incentives and more than double his $5.5 million salary, anyway. Yankees people realize they need Pettitte in the playoffs.
I doubt Andy wants to pitch just so he can reach his incentives. He knows as well as anyone what’s at stake right now, and if his shoulder really was an issue he wouldn’t be begging into September games when the team has a playoff spot all but locked up.
Andy has a $5.5 million base salary, plus another $6.5 million in incentives. He’s going to get all of the $2 million roster bonus without a doubt. He’s already earned $1.5 million in performance bonuses, and will add another $750K to that with his next start. The one after that should add another three-quarter million. If he starts three more times, it could be yet another bonus. So Pettitte stands to make $10.5 to $11.25 million this season. Not bad.
While Jorge Posada’s feistiness generally makes him a beloved figure around the Yankees, club personnel were not pleased Posada ignited a brawl with the Blue Jays. As Toronto manager Cito Gaston pointed out, the Yankees were the ones with something to lose. The Yankees didn’t fight Posada’s three-game suspension (perhaps they knew he got a break).
The Yankees shouldn’t have been pleased with that. Jorge doesn’t like to be a target at the plate, and was rightly upset when Carlson threw behind his back. But it never should have escalated to that point. The Blue Jays are a fourth place team. The Yankees are headed for the best record in the AL. There’s no need for a petty fight in that situation. Nothing good can come of it.
The Yankees think they may have detected the flaw in Joba Chamberlain’s delivery that’s caused him to be so mediocre lately. Pitching coach Dave Eiland is said to have noticed something was awry.
This always sounds dubious to me, no matter what pitcher it regards. We heard stories earlier this year about how John Smoltz was tipping pitches with the Sox. Ditto Luke Hochevar. Sure, there might have been a hitch in Joba’s delivery, and getting into the rhythm of pitching every five days might have helped him work it out. To me, it sounds more like a confidence booster than anything. If it works, hats off. An effective Joba gives the Yankees a distinct advantage in the playoffs.
The desire, but not the flexibility, to demote Joba
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yankees head into the playoffs, the team’s pitching will move to the forefront of the discussion. The Yanks’ offense is far and away the best in the game, but how the pitching holds up will determine how deep they go into October. We know about Andy Pettitte’s shoulder and A.J. Burnett’s inconsistency, but Joba Chamberlain lurks as well.
To that end, the last two days have given us two discussion-worthy items about Joba Chamberlain. We start with Joel Sherman’s 3 Up post. In it, Sherman notes that the Yankees, had they other options, would have considered sending Joba to the minors when he struggled in August and early September. With Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Al Aceves and Phil Hughes in other roles, though, the team had no choice. Writes Sherman:
Yankee officials tell me there was really no option but to have Joba continue to do his work in the majors because the club already was dealing with a fifth starter spot combo of Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin.
But it is worthwhile to remember heading into next year that Chamberlain does not have the divine right to a major league job. The Marlins sent down Ricky Nolasco this year and the Brewers sent down Manny Parra. Chamberlain still has options, which means he is going to get the first opportunity to start and some rope to keep a job. And it is important to remember that the Yanks believe Chamberlain is on the way to the top of a rotation. However, he will not have endless rope in 2010 when theoretically both Hughes and Kennedy will both be rotation options again.
Sherman’s take today juxtaposes nicely with his musings on the Joba Rules The Post published yesterday. Sherman talks about how Joba is young, still learning and facing an innings limit. While many fans and commentators refuse to recognize this reality, Sherman ends with a zinger: “This” — meaning the Spring Training-like build-up in September — “is all part of the continuing education of a young starter. But education, like facts, get in the way of you yelling about Chamberlain not throwing 120 pitches last night.
Not everyone appreciated Sherman’s musings. Mike Silva at NYBD voiced his belief that “Joba’s development should not take precedence over the Yankees season.” Silva understands the need for an innings limit but feels the execution is wrong. He wants Joba on the mound throwing full games to gear up for the post-season and would have limited Joba’s innings by keeping him off the mound earlier in the year. As a comparable pitcher, he cites the Braves’ Tommy Hanson.
Hanson, though, isn’t a valid comp. He’s thrown 167 innings this year so far after tossing back-to-back seasons of 133 innings. The Braves, meanwhile, are preparing to shut him down once they are out of the playoffs. They also avoided summoning Hanson to the Majors until June because they didn’t want his arbitration clock to tick. For Atlanta, it is about the money.
For the Yankees, this has been a year of Joba, and it isn’t over yet. The youngster showed signs of emerging from his funk on Monday, and he’ll look to build on that over the weekend in Seattle. The Yanks may need Joba to start in the ALDS, and they will definitely hand him the ball in the ALCS. This ride is far from over, and Joba will throw more innings with or without the rules.
How does stress factor into a pitcher’s workload?
Posted by: | CommentsBrowsing through my RSS reader on Friday, I caught this bit by Tom Verducci of SI. From a guy with a namesake “rule” regarding pitcher usage, I couldn’t resist the title: “The problem with innings counts…” There are, of course, a number of problems with evaluating a pitcher on innings count and nothing else. That’s why the Verducci Rule is a rule of thumb: it is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation. (From Wikipedia). Instead it’s a guideline. Surely teams use more advanced analysis to determine a pitcher’s workload.
This, of course, relates to Joba Chamberlain. He’s tossed 139.2 innings so far this year, after topping out somewhere around 120 innings a few years ago. The rule of thumb says a 30-inning increase raises a red flag, and Joba is fast approaching that number. The Yanks, for their part, are keeping Joba’s starts short now in hopes that they can keep his innings in check for the regular season.
Verducci makes an interesting comparison of Joba to two other young starters, Rick Porcello of the Tigers and Randy Wells of the Cubs. Both have about the same innings total as Joba, but there are factors which separate them. The one which concerns me most: plate appearances with runners on base. Those are considered higher stress situations. The pitcher has to worry about runners as well as the hitter, and generates less natural force by pitching from the stretch.
Chamberlain also leads the troika in overall pitches, and by a decent margin. So while he’s tossed a similar number of innings, he’s been under greater stress because of more runners on base and more pitches thrown in those innings. If we’re using innings as a measuring stick for work load, we certainly have to take these factors into consideration as well. They can help to more accurately judge how hard a pitcher works.
There are some other differences between Joba and his comps. Wells is a 26-year-old, so he’s out of Verducci’s range, which covers players 25 and under. His workload is less of a concern at that point, as his body is more physically mature. Porcello is just 20 years old and is in his second season of pro ball. Joba may lack experience, but Porcello has even less.
The comparisons are important, and I don’t think Verducci painted the whole picture here. It does show the high number of situations Joba has faced with runners on, and his high overall pitch count. But I’d like to see those juxtaposed with pitchers at Joba’s experience level, both past and present. I think that would give us a better idea of Joba’s actual work load. With access to these numbers we could whip up one of those fancy excel spreadsheets on which some fans like to play the games.
These numbers are a bit concerning. Joba will end the season with a sizable increase to his previous high in innings pitched, and far over his 100-inning total from last year. He’s throwing a good number of high-stress innings, and has a high overall pitch total. I wonder how these factors play into the Yanks overall evaluation of their struggling 23-year-old, and which others they’re using.
