Archive for Joba Chamberlain
Joba throws for first time since elbow surgery
Posted by: | CommentsVia the man himself, Joba Chamberlain played catch today for the first time since having Tommy John surgery in mid-June. Mike Dodd’s classic TJS rehab article says that players typically begin throwing about 16 weeks after surgery, and my unofficial count has Joba at 14 weeks out, so close enough. Dodd’s article is eight years old, remember. Good news obviously, I’m looking forward to seeing Joba back in the rotation bullpen next season.
If you have ESPN Insider, I recommend Keith Law’s recent piece on TJS. He spoke to doctors and players about the operation itself and the rehab process. Very interesting stuff.
Joba Update: Three surgeries and weight loss
Posted by: | CommentsVia Erik Boland & Marc Carig: Joba Chamberlain has “clearly lost weight” and is ahead of scheduled as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He’ll resume throwing in a few weeks, and a mid-April return is possible. That would be ten months out of the surgery, which is pretty aggressive. Joba’s with the team in Minnesota this week(end), but just for a visit.
Aside from the elbow surgery, Chamberlain also had his appendix taken out and had to spend another two weeks in the hospital due to infection. “I had three surgeries in 25 days,” he said. I’ll be surprised if he comes back in April, but it’s good hear he’s recovering well.
Link Dump: Robertson, Joba, All-Star Voting
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees are still playing the Brewers, but here are some links for those of you that can’t watch the game…
David Robertson, Life Saver (Not Literally)
The Yankees bullpen was supposed to be a strength coming into the season, and it has been for the most part. Just not the way we expected. Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain went down long-term elbow injuries, forcing David Robertson to step up his game and bridge the gap between starter and Mariano Rivera. His performance (1.58 FIP and 1.4 fWAR, third highest among all relievers) earned him a spot on Jerry Crasnick’s list of life savers, which focuses on players who thrived after injuries forced them into more prominent roles. “He’s always had that great curveball,” said a scout that Crasnick spoke too. “And [Joe Girardi] really likes him and trusts him.” Well, duh.
Joba Documents Life After Tommy John Surgery
If you follow Joba on Twitter, then you’re already aware that he’s been posting near-daily updates of his status following his Tommy John surgery, and Marc Carig asked him why. “I’ll document good days and bad days when we really start getting after it,” said Joba yesterday. “It’s good. It obviously gives you a non-baseball outlet. A lot of people don’t know really what Tommy John is, and the process. They’re basically going through the process with me. I appreciate all the support that they have given me. I think it’s fun for them to see what’s happening.”
Joba posted some gnarly photos of his scars after the surgery, and continues to write about how he’s feeling and how the latest doctor appointment went. I’ve been following along and I think it’s a pretty cool way for him to not only keep everyone updated about how he’s doing, but also interact with readers. Rehab from TJS is no joke, but now we’ll get a closer look at it then every before.
All-Star Game Voting Ends Tonight
Fan voting for the 2011 All-Star Game ends at midnight, so make sure you head over and stuff the ballots while you still can. Five Yankees are in line to start the game at the moment: Russell Martin, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira is about a million voted behind Adrian Gonzalez at first base, and both Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner are about a million and a half votes out of an outfield spot. I haven’t voted yet myself, but if I do, here’s my ballot…
AL: Alex Avila, Adrian, Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, A-Rod, Granderson, Bautista, Carlos Quentin, David Ortiz
NL: Brian McCann, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Jose Reyes, Placido Polanco, Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun
Lessons learned from pitching prospects
Posted by: | CommentsBilly Beane put it best when he said, paraphrased, that you need three pitching prospects in order to get one major league starter. One will get hurt, one will backslide, and one will succeed. This is precisely why, in RAB’s halcyon days, we so strongly argued that the Yankees should keep Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain. If they traded the wrong one, they could end up with nothing to show for their top three prospects. Keeping all three, however, gave them a good chance at having a young, cost-controlled pitcher in the rotation, which allows the further benefit of spending money elsewhere.
With the Yankees’ big three, it didn’t quite work out the way Beane described it. There were successes, injuries, and backslides, but those results were scattered among the three. Both Chamberlain and Hughes have gotten hurt, and, to a degree, have backslid — though, before news of Joba’s season-ending elbow injury, it was more that he backslid and that Hughes got hurt. Ian Kennedy backslid in ways, got hurt, and then succeeded, albeit in an environment dramatically different than that of the Yankees. There are still chances for Hughes, and even Joba, to succeed, but it’s still pretty clear that these guys followed Beane’s axiom.
At this point, the development of these three is behind us. Kennedy is finding success elsewhere, and while Hughes and Joba could still succeed to degrees, I’m not sure it’s particularly likely at this point. This shouldn’t be surprising, since it is the nature of pitchers. There’s a reason for TINSTAPP — there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. There are only pitchers. They all develop at different paces, and they’re all susceptible to the same pitfalls. WIth so much attrition among pitchers, teams absolutely need a block of high-end prospects if they’re going to get even one from the group.
This is relevant to the Yankees now, just as it was four years ago. They have a new trio of top pitching prospects in Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman. Right away, it appears that they’re going to take a different tack with this new group than they did with the Big Three. Brian Cashman made that relatively clear yesterday, when he said there were no plans to bring them up as relievers to help patch a spotty bullpen. Chances are, they also won’t call upon them to help in the rotation, either. That is, unless they display a certain degree of readiness.
The situation the Yankees face now is somewhat similar to the 2007 season. They were a bit more pitching starved then, as was evident when they called up Chase Wright to take a few starts. Eventually, though, they went to Hughes, despite him having made just a couple of starts at AAA, and despite him having pitched a career high 146 innings in 2006, after just 86.1 in 2005. His injury appeared to be a freak one, but he was never quite the same after that. He had a few good appearances, including a season-saving one in relief during the ALDS, but in 2008 he completely lost it. There might not be a causal link here, but I’m sure that the experience has the Yankees preferring to err on the side of caution nonetheless — especially when you consider the other two.
Both Chamberlain and Kennedy came up in the 2007 season as well. Chamberlain was so completely dominant as a starter in A and AA ball that the Yankees thought he could help save their spotty bullpen. He was nearing his innings limit anyway, so rather than have him make a few more starts in the minors and pack it up in September, the Yankees decided to have him finish his workload in relief. Of course, we know that a starter’s workload is different from a reliever’s, and perhaps bringing him to his innings limit in high-leverage situations in the majors wasn’t the best idea. It did help them make the playoffs in 2007, though. It also excited a fanbase, inciting the starter-reliever debate that still hasn’t died. (And will be reignited as Joba rehabs from surgery.) Kennedy’s debut was less of a big deal, but his good, if lucky, September performances gave him a rotation spot out of the chute in 2008, an experience from which the Yankees have clearly learned.
This time around, the Yankees are going to let the prospects speak for themselves, rather than let team necessity dictate their development paths. I’m certain that if the Yankees brought Dellin Betances into Joba’s old role that he’d succeed. He throws gas and has shown a propensity to miss bats. He might have control troubles, but as David Robertson has shown, if you can strike guys out you can often mask those troubles. And yes, many starters have come up as relievers before breaking into the rotation. At the same time, we can’t just use a blanket statement like that to make and examine decisions. If a pitcher isn’t developmentally ready to start in the bigs, will relieving in the bigs help excel that development? Or will it just prepare him for life in the bullpen? These are all questions that have to be asked of individual pitchers, and cannot be determined by a rule of thumb.
The good news is that the Yankees have three top-flight pitchers in their minor league system who, if developed fully, can help the team for years to come. Of course, chances are that only one will help. The others will make the bigs, maybe, and maybe even show signs of greatness. But the chances are great that one will backslide, one will get hurt, and one will succeed. The only way to find out which is which, though, is to let them continue developing their games. It will hurt the 2011 team for sure. But it stands to help the future Yankees to a greater degree.
Joba diagnosed with torn ligament, TJS likely
Posted by: | CommentsJoba Chamberlain has a torn ligament in his throwing elbow, Yankee manager Joe Girardi just announced in his pre-game press conference. While the Yankee pitcher hasn’t shown any symptoms of a serious injury or pain, the MRI, Girardi said, showed a tear that will “likely” require Tommy John surgery. It is unclear how much time he will miss, but it seems as though we’ve seen the last of Joba for 2011.
Joba, according to Peter Botte, is “sending [his] MRI results to [Dr. James] Andrews but not visiting him yet.” The right-handed who, said he “shed a few tears,” repeatedly said that he had no pain. “I’m not giving up,” he said.
With $17.75 million worth of relievers already on the disabled list, this news is a huge blow to the Yankees’ bullpen depth. They have posted the best bullpen in the American League so far this year, but the club will be stretched to the max as Brian Cashman works to fill some holes. Joba, 2-0 with a 2.83 ERA, had seemingly embraced his relief role this year. He had struck out 24 while walking just seven and was powering fastballs past hitters with a confidence not seen since mid-2009.
With Rafael Soriano out for a while, Joba had emerged as the club’s primary set-up role. That job will now be handed to David Robertson, and in the short term, Luis Ayala and Boone Logan will be expected to pick up the slack. The club still has Mariano and a potential ace in the hole.
Along with the Joba news, the Yanks announced that Phil Hughes was consistently hitting 92 on the radar gun and will begin his arduous Spring Training-like rehab process. He’ll start next week for the Gulf Coast League Yankees and will likely need most of the 30-day rehab clock to get his arm strength and stamina back up. While the Yankees’ starting rotation is skating on thin ice these days, the Yankees may decide to keep Hughes in the bullpen for depth. I believe that decision will depend upon whether Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman can more easily procure a starting pitcher or a reliever on the trade market.
For the Yankees and their fans, this news will inevitably be viewed through the lens of Joba’s ever-changing roles. He was a starter, a reliever, a starter, a reliever and a starter again before moving into a relief spot seemingly permanently. He suffered a mysterious shoulder injury in 2008 and was an injury risk when he was drafted in 2006. The Yanks say they kept him as a reliever to better manage the load on his shoulder, but you know what they say about the best-laid plans.
Personally, I’m a big fan of Joba’s, and I’m more saddened by this news than I thought. While this development represents a blow to the Yanks’ bullpen, the Yanks can weather another bullpen injury far better than they can ineffective pitching from A.J. Burnett, Freddy Garcia or Ivan Nova. I will still trot out the 62 t-shirt this year and know that Brian Cashman has a tough task ahead of him.
Joba to the DL with strained elbow flexor
Posted by: | CommentsJoba Chamberlain landed on the DL with a strained flexor muscle in his right elbow, the club announced a few minutes ago. The Yanks’ set-up man had been feeling soreness for weeks, according to manager Joe Girardi, and will miss at least three weeks. Joba himself doesn’t believe the injury is too serious, but he won’t throw for at least ten days. I’d be surprised if he’s back before the end of June.
In the meantime, Amaury Sanit will take his place on the roster, but that’s probably temporary. The Yanks need some late-inning depth, and this injury is clearly a big blow for the Yanks’ endgame plans as they now have three key relievers on the shelf. David Robertson will slide into the set-up role while Luis Ayala and Boone Logan will be called upon to get outs in higher leverage situations. Hold onto you hats, folks.
In other injury news, Russell Martin‘s back “locked up” on him last night, Girardi says. With Jorge Posada away from the club due to another surgery for his son, the Yanks’ bench tonight will consist of Chris Dickerson and Andruw Jones. Confirming what we knew already, Jeff Marquez will be activated for the bullpen, and Hector Noesi has been sent down.
Joba Chamberlain and the first pitch
Posted by: | CommentsYou’ve probably noticed that Joba Chamberlain looks a bit different this season. No, I don’t mean his new mechanics (hands at the waist) or his weight (nyuck nyuck), I’m talking about the way he’s using his pitches. Joba’s scaled back his fastball usage from last year, down to 56% from 65.3%, and is using his curveball exactly twice as often (10.6% after 5.3%). Throwing some more breaking balls is one thing, but it’s when he’s throwing them that’s really interesting.
The graph above, cut right from Joba’s various splits pages on FanGraphs, shows how much he’s used each offering as the first pitch of an at-bat. In his first full season as a reliever in 2010, Chamberlain threw a first pitch fastball more than seven out of ten times. He’s scaled it back a bit this year, instead mixing in some more first pitch sliders and curveballs. Joba’s first pitch strike percentage is essentially the same (58.1% in 2011 after 58.4% in 2010), so he’s not “stealing strikes” with this approach nor is he getting batters to swing at the first pitch more than he did last year (9.7% in 2011 after 11.8% in 2010).
Essentially all Joba has been doing is giving hitters a different look. First pitch offspeed stuff is just a friendly reminder that the pitcher is comfortable throwing any pitch at any time, which makes life that much harder on the hitter*. It’s probably not a coincidence that batters are swinging at 36.6% of the pitches Joba’s thrown them out of the strike zone, the highest rate of his career (it was 35.1% in 2007) and a top 15 mark among all relievers (Mariano Rivera is actually first at 44.2%).
Joba’s ERA is a full run better than it was last season because he’s walking fewer guys (1.85 BB/9 after 2.76) and getting way more ground balls (62.1% after 45.6%) than he did in 2010, making up for a decline in strikeout rate (7.40 K/9 after 9.67). A 17.6% HR/FB ratio is unusually high, so that will correct and help bring his ERA even closer to his 2.80 xFIP. How (or even if) the first pitch breaking balls are contributing to the overall improvement is not something I can definitively say, but Chamberlain’s pitching sequences and overall performance have been noticeably different.
* I remember hearing Al Leiter say that he threw a curveball on the first pitch of Game Seven of the 1997 World Series for that very reason, to show the Indians that he was going to make them guess all game long.
The Overworked Relievers
Posted by: | CommentsIf there’s anything good to come out of last night’s loss, it’s that the Yankees were able to sit and rest their core relievers for a day. I mean completely rest them, they didn’t even have to get up and walk to the bullpen mound thinking about the possibility of warming up. Joe Girardi said before the game that Joba Chamberlain was not going to pitch given his recent workload, which included six appearances in the last eleven games. David Robertson has also worked quite a bit lately (five appearances in the last ten games), and even Mariano Rivera has been used heavily at times this year.
Rafael Soriano‘s injury has made those three, especially Joba and Robertson, that much more important this month. The problem is that these guys can’t go on like this forever, they’ll be burnt out by season’s end. Mike Jaggers-Radolf at The Yankee Analysts looked at these three yesterday and showed that they were on target for some serious innings totals, but I want to dig a little deeper. Innings are nice and convenient, but they are most certainly not all created equal. What’s really important is the number of pitches thrown by each, because as the old saying goes, there’s only so many bullets in those arms.
Let’s look at each pitcher individually, and compare their cumulative pitch totals this season to last season. Might as well follow The Formula™, so first up is the seventh inning…
Mailbag: Sizemore, Posada, Maxwell, K-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsExtra long edition of the RAB Mailbag this week, so I tried to keep the answers as short as possible. I figure short answers and more questions if better than long answers and fewer questions. Anyway, if you want to send in a question, just use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.
Mike asks: I know that starting pitching will be a priority but if Cleveland makes Grady Sizemore available this year should we go after him? What would he cost in terms of prospects?
Sizemore has been ridiculously good since coming off the disabled list (.390/.432/.878), but there are a few problems: 1) it’s a small sample, will it last?, b) Cleveland is actually good right now, I doubt they’re looking to sell right now, and c) you have to assume you’re only getting him for the rest of the year since his club option for 2012 becomes a player option if traded. He’s great and would be an upgrade over Brett Gardner in left, but the cost is likely to be greater than the return. Believe it or not, I’d rather rent Carlos Beltran than Sizemore, since the cost figures to be much lower.








