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Yankeemetrics: Nightmare beatdown in Boston (August 2-5)

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(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway
The Yankees headed to Boston for a crucial and historic series, the first time the two teams met this late into the season with the two best records in the majors since the famed 1978 tiebreaker game. On Thursday, however, the Yankees were on the wrong side of history in a 15-7 rout.

The Red Sox pummeled them with 15 runs and 19 hits, and added four steals to round out the shellacking. This was the 2,204th game in the history of the rivalry (including the postseason) — and it was the first of those games that the Red Sox scored that many runs, had that many hits and that many stolen bases.

The longball was no help as the Yankees hit four homers and still lost. This was the 43rd time they went deep at least four times in a game against the Red Sox — and the second time they didn’t win. The other game was on Sept. 24, 2010 at Yankee Stadium.

Even more depressing is the fact that they did all that damage and lost by eight runs! To find the last time the Yankees hit four homers, scored at least seven runs and still got whipped by eight-plus runs you have to back more than 75 years to a 15-7 loss on May 21, 1930 to the Philadelphia A’s.

Jonathan Holder did his best to put himself in the Yankee record books — in every bad way possible. He entered in the fourth inning, faced seven batters, allowed all of them to reach base and coughed up seven runs. The only other Yankee pitcher to give up that many earned runs without recording an out in a game was Bob Kammeyer on Sept. 8, 1979 against the Indians. That was only game he pitched in 1979 and the last game Kammeyer ever pitched in the majors.

Let’s finish with a couple silver linings to calm the rage:

  • Didi Gregorius went deep twice and drove in four runs, becoming the first Yankee shortstop ever with at least two home runs and four RBI in a game against the Red Sox.
  • This was the second time the Yankees allowed 14 or more runs to the Red Sox this season (remember the 14-1 disaster on April 10 at Fenway?). The last time the Red Sox scored at least 14 runs twice in a season against the Yankees was 2009.
(USA Today)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part II
The freefall continued on Friday as the Yankees were dominated by Rick Porcello and embarrassed again in a 4-1 loss. They looked like a JV squad playing the state champion varsity team, getting just two guys on base (hit by pitch and home run) the entire game.

It was the first time Yankees had one hit or fewer against the Red Sox since Sept. 10, 1999, the epic Pedro Martinez 17-strikeout game at Yankee Stadium. And the only other time in the last 100 years that Yankees had no more than one hit at Fenway Park was June 7, 1990. That was the first game of the glorious Stump Merrill era.

Porcello was in total control the entire game, never faced a runner in scoring position, retired the final 21 Yankees that came to the plate and needed just 86 pitches to finish them off. The U-G-L-Y numbers, bullet-point style:

  • In the 21 years we have reliable pitch data (since 1988), Porcello is the only pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with at least nine strikeouts and fewer than 90 pitches against the Yankees
  • Porcello is the second Red Sox pitcher to throw a nine-inning complete game with one or zero hits allowed against the Yankees at Fenway Park. The other guy was Rube Foster who tossed a no-hitter against them on June 21, 1916.
  • And — our daily #SilverLiningStat — the last pitcher on any team to throw a complete game and give up no more than one hit against the Yankees was Roy Halladay on September 4, 2009 in Toronto.

Luis Severino — who had struggled mightily his previous four games — looked like he was going to suffer through another disaster outing after getting pounded for three runs in the first inning.

But he settled down, pitched with more confidence, and had better location before exiting in the sixth. As you can see below, he couldn’t find the plate in the first inning (left) but had much-improved command the rest of the game (right):

Even though Severino might be emerging from his slump, his subpar line (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER) gave him a 8.28 ERA over his last five games. That’s his highest ERA in a five-start span (with no relief appearances in between) in his career.

(New York Post)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part III
It was deja vu all over again for the Yankees on Saturday, as they dropped another 4-1 dud to the Red Sox. Following their identical 4-1 debacle on Friday, this is the first time since September 1991 that the Yankees scored one run or fewer in consecutive games in a series at Fenway Park.

The Yankees saw their slim division hopes almost extinguished as they fell to a season-worst 8.5 games back in the division, and extended their losing streak to a season-high four games. Prior to this series, the Yankees and Red Sox were the only MLB teams that hadn’t lost more than three games in a row.

For the second straight game the Yankees looked thoroughly overmatched against a dominant Red Sox starter. This time it was Nathan Eovaldi who silenced the Yankee bats, holding them to three singles over eight scoreless innings. Eovaldi and Porcello are the third set of Red Sox teammates since 1908 to pitch at least eight innings and allow no more than three hits on back-to-back days against the Yankees. The others? Mike Boddicker and Greg Harris on June 6-7, 1990, and Rube Foster and Babe Ruth on June 21-22, 1916.

(Getty Images)

Nightmare at Fenway, Part IV
The Yankees capped off the most disappointing and dreadful series of the season with arguably the most painful and brutal loss of the season, losing 5-4 in the 10th inning after starting the ninth inning with a 4-1 advantage.

Chapman imploded in trying to close out the game, walking three batters and all three crossed home plate. He now has seven blown saves as a Yankee, and three of them have come against the Red Sox. The tying run scored on an error by Miguel Andujar; he entered the game with -14 Defensive Runs Saved this season, the worst among all MLB third basemen. This was bad, bad, bad, bad:

  • Entering Sunday they were an MLB-best 58-0 this season when leading at the start of the ninth inning.
  • It was just the second time in the last 10 seasons that they lost a game when taking a lead of at least three runs into the ninth. The other game was September 15, 2016 … against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
  • It was just the fourth time in the last 50 seasons they were swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox; it also happened September 2016, June 1990 and September 1969. All four of those sweeps were at Fenway Park.
  • Yankees are now 8-18 at Fenway Park over the last three seasons, their worst record at any American League ballpark since 2016.

2018 Midseason Review: The Bullpen

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(Presswire)

As expected, the bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees so far this season. The relief crew actually got off to a bit of a rocky start the first week or two, though things have settled down nicely since, and Aaron Boone now has arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the game at his disposal.

Here are the team’s bullpen ranks 95 games into the season:

  • ERA: 2.69 (first)
  • FIP: 3.01 (second)
  • WHIP: 1.08 (second)
  • Strikeout Rate: 31.6% (first)
  • Shutdowns: 102 (fifth)
  • Meltdowns: 37 (first)
  • WAR: +6.6 (first)

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a neat win probability stat. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team’s win probability least 6%. Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6%. Long story short, the Yankees have had an excellent bullpen this year, and that was the expectation coming into the season. Time to grade the relievers.

Dellin Betances

Midseason Grade: A

Expectations for Betances were pretty low coming into the season. He collapsed down the stretch last year and his control disappeared — Dellin walked eleven batters in his final 12.2 regular season innings — so much so that he was basically persona non grata in the postseason. Use only in an emergency. The Yankees stuck with Betances over the winter when much of the fan base was ready to dump him.

And, coming out of the gate this year, it seemed Betances was still broken. He allowed a homer in his first appearance of the season and Kevin Pillar embarrassed him by stealing his way around the bases in his second appearance. Six appearances into the season, Betances had allowed six runs on ten hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He allowed three homers in his first 6.2 innings this year after allowing three homers in 59.2 innings last year.

Something funny happened after that: All-Star Dellin Betances returned. The Yankees and Boone said they were going to stick with Betances and get him right, and they did. Since April 14th, Betances has pitched to a 1.56 ERA (1.70 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (44.1%), lots of grounders (48.2%), and a tolerable amount of walks (11.8%) in 34.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .121/.244/.164 against him in those 34.2 innings. The knee-bucklers are back. The swag is back.

With Betances, given his history, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will this be the outing when he hits a batter and walks three? I get it, and it’s not an unreasonable feeling after last season. For now though, Betances has reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and gone back to being a monster strikeout machine. He could’ve gone to his fifth straight All-Star Game this year but did not. That doesn’t diminish his season performance at all.

Aroldis Chapman

Midseason Grade: A

The first year of Chapman’s reliever record five-year, $86M contract did not go according to plan. He got hurt early in the season and lost his closer’s job at midseason before finding it late and dominating in the postseason. This year, Chapman has come right out of the gate looking like the historically great late-inning reliever he’s been basically his entire career.

Through 95 team games Chapman has a 1.35 ERA (1.49 FIP) with his typically excellent strikeout rate (44.2%) and a strong ground ball rate (46.3%). His 10.4% walk rate is a tick below his 11.3% career average. Chapman is 26-for-27 in save chances and, in the one blown save, he didn’t even get hit around. A single, a hit-by-pitch, and two wild pitches pushed a run across. And the Yankees won that game anyway, so who cares?

We are more than halfway through the season now, so we can say for sure Chapman’s trademark velocity is down a tick. He’s averaging a still otherworldly 99.7 mph with his fastball. That’s down from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. You have to go back to 2013 for the last time Chapman’s average fastball velocity was this low. We still see a few 103s and 104s, though not nearly as frequently as in the past.

Chapman is 30 years old now and he has been pitching basically his entire life, so a little velocity loss is no surprise. It is completely natural. He’s compensated for that velocity loss — again, the dude is still averaging 99.7 mph with his heater, so it’s not like he’s out there slinging mid-80s gas — with more sinkers and more sliders, especially with two strikes. It has worked wonderfully too.

Amazingly, Chapman has pitched this well despite ongoing tendinitis in his left (push-off) knee. He’s been dealing with it for weeks and he’s admitted he’ll probably have to deal with it all season. Chapman is getting regular treatment and it hasn’t stopped him from taking the mound — the knee did force him to leave a game earlier this month, though that had more to do with not wanting to push it with a four-run lead than “I can’t pitch it hurts too much” — so that’s good.

I’m not a big fan of players — especially very important players — playing through an injury, but what I think doesn’t matter, so Chapman will continue to pitch through the knee trouble. The doctors know better than me anyway. Even with the knee trouble, Chapman is having a truly outstanding season, a season that deservedly sent him to the All-Star Game. He’s been a rock in the ninth inning. Hand him a lead and the game is over.

A.J. Cole

Midseason Grade: A+

Cole is that kid whose family moved in the middle of the school year and the teachers at his new school grade him on a curve. The Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals in a cash trade on April 24th because they needed a long man, and, as a 26-year-old former top 100 prospect, he offered some upside. Cole was terrible with Washington — he allowed 15 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.1 innings before the trade — but he was a low risk pickup. At worst, he’d soak up some innings in a blowout, then be cast aside for the next guy.

Instead, Cole has become the best long man the Yankees have had in quite some time. Probably since 2013 Adam Warren. He’s allowed one run in 18.2 innings around a minor neck injury, striking out 24 and holding opponents to a .172/.243/.234 batting line against. The Yankees, as they are wont to do, have Cole throwing far more sliders than ever before.

The Yankees have such a good bullpen that they haven’t needed Cole to pitch in high (or even medium) leverage situations. His average leverage index when entering the game is 0.53. That’s nothing. That is 33rd lowest among the 324 relievers with at least ten innings pitched this season. Perhaps there will come a time when Cole can audition for high leverage work. Right now, the Yankees don’t need him in that role. He can be a highly effective long man and there’s nothing wrong with that at all.

Chad Green

Midseason Grade: B

Two things are true this season. One, Green has been very good overall. Two, Green has not been as good as last season. Two blowups in two appearances prior to the All-Star break left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, though, prior to those last two appearances, Green had a 1.91 ERA (2.39 FIP) in 42.1 innings. He was fantastic and he probably deserved to go to the All-Star Game.

Here is 2017 Chad Green vs. 2018 Chad Green:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% HR/9 Fastball Whiff%
2017 69 1.83 1.75 40.7% 6.7% 0.52 37.9%
2018 46 2.74 3.01 31.5% 5.0% 1.17 27.7%

Good numbers overall but also some discouraging trends. Green’s strikeouts are down, he’s not getting as many swings and misses with his trademark fastball, and his home run rate is up. He’s allowed six homers in 46 innings this season after allowing four homers in 69 innings last year, so yeah. That includes two back-breaking homers in his last two appearances of the first half.

I think Green’s step back this season — and by step back, I mean going from elite to merely above-average — has more to do with it being incredibly hard to succeed as a fastball only guy. Green’s slider kinda stinks but his fastball is great in terms of velocity and spin rate. But unless you have Chapman’s velocity, it’s hard to throw fastballs by hitters long-term. Green did it most of the season. Things kinda got away from him those last two outings.

Aside from Chapman, pretty much every reliever in the bullpen has been written off at some point this season. People were ready to move on from Betances, from David Robertson, from Jonathan Holder, so on and so forth. It seems it is now Green’s turn. Fortunately, the Yankees call the shots, not fans, and they’ll stick with Green and work to get him right. And, chances are, he’ll get right soon enough. No, Green has not been as good as last year. But he’s still been very good overall, and I see those last two outings as more of a bump in the road than anything.

Jonathan Holder

Midseason Grade: A

Another reliever who gets an A. Fourth in five reviews so far. Holder was in the Opening Day bullpen as basically the last guy on the roster, though he quickly earned a demotion to Triple-A after allowing seven runs and eight baserunners in his first 2.2 innings of the season. That includes taking the loss in a frustrating 14-inning game against the Orioles on April 6th.

Holder went to Triple-A, resurfaced in late April after Adam Warren went down with a lat issue, and since then he’s been out of this world good. He’s thrown 36.1 innings with a 0.50 ERA (1.99 FIP) since returning, with a good strikeout rate (22.4%) and an excellent walk rate (3.7%). It felt like he “arrived” on June 18th, when he inherited runners on the corners with no outs and a one-run lead against the Nationals, and didn’t allow a run to score.

Holder’s newfound success comes after a change in his pitch mix. He went to Triple-A, scrapped his high-spin curveball, and came back as a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. He’s always had the slider and changeup, but they took a backseat to the curveball. Now the curveball is taking a backseat to the slider, which he uses against righties, and the changeup, which he uses against lefties.

Goodbye curveball (and cutter), hello slider and changeup. That adjustment has helped Holder make the jump from up-and-down depth arm to reliable middle reliever. In fact, on most other teams, I reckon Holder would be pitching in a traditional setup role by now. But because the Yankees are so deep in quality relievers, Boone is able to use Holder in the middle innings, when the starter bows out early and it’s a little too early to go to Betances and Green. Holder has been invaluable in that role.

Tommy Kahnle

Midseason Grade: F

Tough, but fair. Expectations were high for Kahnle coming into the season because he was so good last year and so effective in the postseason. Instead, Kahnle has been injured and ineffective this year. He’s allowed eleven runs and 16 baserunners in nine big league innings around a biceps/shoulder injury, and, worst of all, he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Ten apiece. Ouch.

The Yankees sent Kahnle to Triple-A in early June — he essentially lost his middle innings job to Holder — and, with Triple-A Scranton, he owns a 2.81 ERA (2.32 FIP) with 37.6% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 16 innings. That’s good. Certainly better than what he did in his limited big league time this year. So it’s not like Kahnle has suddenly forgotten how to pitch, you know?

The big issue this year is fastball velocity. Kahnle’s heater averaged 98.1 mph last year and 97.0 mph the year before. This season it was down to 95.6 mph. The fastest pitch he threw with the Yankees this year checked in at 97.6 mph. That’s still below last year’s average fastball velocity. Minor league velocity reports can be unreliable, though they have Kahnle sitting 95-96 mph with the RailRiders.

On one hand, 95-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs at the big league level. Holder’s fastball is averaging only 93.2 mph this season, for example. On the other hand, Kahnle is not exactly blessed with great command. He’s a pure grip it and rip it pitcher, and hey, that works too. Worked great for him last year. But Kahnle at 95-96 mph is a different animal than Kahnle at 98-99 mph. Especially since the velocity on his changeup is unchanged. The velocity gap between the two pitches is smaller and that makes both of them less effective.

Kahnle has been down in the minors long enough to delay his free agency, which I guess is good for the Yankees. I suspect they’d happily trade that extra year of control for a healthy and effective Kahnle at the big league level though. He was part of that big trade last season with the idea that he’d be a long-term bullpen piece. Instead, Kahnle has been a non-factor this season, and it’s unclear whether he’ll regain last year’s effectiveness at some point.

David Robertson

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Midseason Grade: B+

Ho hum, another typically strong David Robertson season. He’s basically the CC Sabathia of the bullpen at this point. Still very effective, still lots of folks seemingly ready to call him done any time he stumbles. Robertson had a rough patch in May but has otherwise been very good this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA (2.47 FIP) with strikeout (30.5%) and walk (8.1%) rates right in line with his career norms. He is the same guy he’s always been.

Betances’ reemergence and Green’s overall effectiveness has allowed Boone to use Robertson in all sorts of situations. He’s brought him into the middle of an inning to escape a jam, used him as a seventh and eighth inning guy, and Robertson has even gone 2-for-2 in save chances on days Chapman was unavailable. Robertson has made 43 appearances this season. Here’s when he’s entered the game:

  • Sixth Inning: 4 times
  • Seventh Inning: 13 times
  • Eighth Inning: 17 times
  • Ninth Inning: 5 times
  • Extra Innings: 4 times

That is a man who is not married to a specific inning. Robertson was out of this world good after rejoining the Yankees last season — he allowed four runs in 35 innings after the trade — and he was great in the postseason. He hasn’t been quite that good this year, but he’s been very good overall. As good as he is, I still get the feeling Robertson is underappreciated. He’s a hell of a reliever.

Chasen Shreve

Midseason Grade: D

I suppose you could argue Shreve is meeting expectations. He owns a 4.54 ERA (5.22 FIP) with 28.8% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 33.2 innings this season. From 2016-17, he pitched to a 4.37 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 11.2% walks in 78.1 innings. Shreve is the same guy right now that he’s been the last two years. Unfortunately, that makes him a replacement level reliever.

As the very last guy in the bullpen — and that’s what I think he is at this point, I think Cole has jumped him in the pecking order — Shreve is okay. He’s someone who takes a beating in blowout games, basically. The problem isn’t Shreve, really. It’s that Boone keeps using him in somewhat leveraged left-on-left matchup situations even though Shreve isn’t good against lefties. They’re hitting .239/.364/.556 (.386 wOBA) against him this year. Yuck.

The Yankees clearly like Shreve. He wouldn’t have stuck on the roster this long otherwise. And I get it. He’s a just turned 28-year-old southpaw with a history of missing bats. Guys like that are hard to find. If another team had Shreve and they designated him for assignment, I’d look at him as a potential reclamation project pickup. If Boone stops using Shreve as a left-on-left guy and starts using him as a mop-up man, he’ll be fine. It’d be fine. Just fine.

Adam Warren

Midseason Grade: B

Once again, Warren has been a boringly reliable Swiss Army Knife reliever this season. He did miss more than six weeks with a lat strain, which drags down his midseason grade, otherwise the guy has thrown 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA (2.94 FIP) and very good strikeout (28.4%) and walk (8.8%) rates. And he is what, the sixth best reliever in the bullpen? Yeah, that’ll play.

I get the sense Warren will take on increased responsibility in the second half. The injury threw a wrench into things in the first half and it seems Boone is still trying to figure out when exactly to use him. In the second half though, I think Warren will be used for more multi-inning stints in the middle of the game as the Yankees look to control Luis Severino’s workload and also try to shorten games by not letting their starter go through the lineup a third time.

Either way, Warren has again been a reliable bullpen arm who flies under the radar because the Yankees have so many good relievers. Missing all that time with the lat injury stinks, but you know what? It gave Holder an opportunity to emerge, and the Yankees are a better team now because of it. In that sense, Warren’s injury turned out to be a good thing. Now he’s healthy and again an effective do it all bullpen option.

Yankeemetrics: Bounceback Bombers in Philly (June 25-27)

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(AP)

Rebound in Philly
One day after suffering through a nightmare weekend at the Trop, the Yankees headed north and snapped their three-game skid with a 4-2 win over the Phillies on Monday night.

With the victory, the Yankees improved to an MLB-leading 24-9 (.727) against teams with a winning record. Sounds impressive, eh? Yup, it would be the best winning percentage by a team in the Modern Era (since 1900) in games versus opponents with a better than .500 record; the 1906 Cubs (31-12, .721) currently hold the top mark.

Jonathan Loaisiga was brilliant as he retired the first 12 batters (including seven via strikeout) and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before giving up a leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. He finished his stellar outing with one hit allowed and eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings.

At the age of 23 years and 235 days old, he became the second-youngest pitcher in franchise history to allow no more than one hit, strike out at least eight batters and not give up a run in a game. The only guy younger was a 22-year-old Al Downing when he threw a one-hit, 10 strikeout shutout against the White Sox on July 2, 1963.

And this performance combined with his five-inning scoreless debut on June 15 earns him our #FunFact of the series: He is the first pitcher in franchise history to go at least five innings, allow three hits or fewer and zero earned runs in two of his first three career games.

How dominant was Jonny Lasagna? Not only did he strike out nearly half (8) of the 19 batters he faced, but Alfaro’s single was the only ball that left the infield. Of the eight batted balls that went fair, just one was hit harder than 96 mph.

One of the keys to his excellent performance was his ability to execute with two strikes and putaway batters. 13 of the 19 batters went to two strikes on Monday, and Loaisiga retired 11 of them, with one hit and one walk allowed. In his first two starts, nine of the 26 batters (35%) that got into two-strike counts against him reached base.

Aaron Judge gave the Yankees a 2-0 cushion in the fifth with a screaming line drive homer to left field.

It was his 20th longball of the season, the second straight year he reached that milestone this early into the schedule (team game number 76). He is the first right-handed batter in team history to do that in consecutive seasons, and the list of all Yankees to do it back-back years in a short one:

Aaron Judge (2017-18)
Curtis Granderson (2011-12)
Roger Maris (1960-61)
Mickey Mantle (1956-58, 1960-61)
Lou Gehrig (1929-32)
Babe Ruth (1920-21, 1923-24, 1926-28, 1930-33)

Thank you, Cy Sevy
The Yankees continued to build momentum following their miserable series in Florida as they beat up on the Phillies for a second straight night on Wednesday. The 6-0 blanking was their biggest Interleague shutout win on the road in a decade, since they whitewashed the Mets 9-0 at Shea Stadium in the second game of the two-stadium doubleheader on June 27, 2008.

Aaron Hicks jump-started the offense with a lead-off homer on the third pitch of the game. It was his first lead-off shot in pinstripes (er, road grays), and the first by any Yankee in an Interleague game since Derek Jeter hit one on June 20, 2012 against the Braves.

Didi Gregorius capped off the scoring with his 15th home run of the season in the fifth inning, the third season in a row he’s reached that mark. The only other MLB shortstops with at least 15 dingers in each of the last three years (2016-18) are Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor.

(USA Today)

The best Yankee performance of the night was delivered by Luis Severino, who tossed seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. He was in complete control of nearly every at-bat, aggressively attacking hitters early as he threw first-pitch strikes to 23 of 26 batters, a career-best rate of 88.5 percent.

His electric, high-octane fastball was in peak form — its average velocity of 98.6 mph was the second-highest of his career — as he used it both to get ahead in the count and finish off batters. Of the 23 first-pitch strikes he threw, 21 came with his four-seamer. He also ended four of his nine strikeouts with 99-plus mph fastballs, and now has 20 strikeouts with pitches of at least 99 mph. Every other starting pitcher in MLB combined for 22 strikeouts on pitches 99 mph or faster (through Tuesday).

Despite the near-triple-digit radar readings on his fastball, the pitch wasn’t a swing-and-miss weapon for Severino. Instead, the excellent movement and deception of the pitch (especially relative to his sharp-breaking slider), combined with his ability to pound the zone, consistently fooled the Phillies batters. He got a career-best 20 called strikes with his four-seamer and only a couple of them were on the edges of the zone:

This was his fifth scoreless start with at least seven strikeouts in 2018, the most of any pitcher in the majors this season. He’s also the first pitcher in franchise history to throw five such starts in the first half of a season.

And, in case you need some visual proof that Severino belongs on the list of baseball’s most elite pitchers, our favorite stat ….

No runs, no win, no sweep
There would be no sweep in Philly as the Yankees offense went M.I.A on Wednesday night and sleepwalked through a listless 3-0 loss.

They’ve now been shut out three times this season, matching their entire total from 2017. All three blankings have come in June and all three have come on the road. The only other time since 1990 that the Yankees suffered three road shutouts in a single calendar month was when they had five(!) in September 2016.

(AP)

Kyle Higashioka got his first start of the season but is still looking for his first career big-league hit after going 0-for-2. His streak of 20 hitless at-bats to start a career is tied with Dusty Cooke (1930) for the longest by a Yankee position player who debuted with the team in the Live Ball Era (since 1920).

After starter Luis Cessa was shelled for three runs in three innings, a trio of bullpen arms — Giovanny Gallegos, Jonathan Holder and Domingo German — held the Phillies scoreless the rest of the game. Holder now has gone 23 straight outings without allowing an earned run, dating back to his recall from Triple-A on April 21. That’s puts him in some pretty impressive company:

Jonathan Holder has done enough to earn a spot in the bullpen even after Adam Warren returns

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(Presswire)

Last night Adam Warren made his second minor league rehab appearance since going down with a lat injury last month, throwing three scoreless innings with Double-A Trenton. His first rehab outing with Triple-A Scranton a few days ago did not go well at all. Warren walked two and hit two, and allowed four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Terrible outing, but he felt good physically, and that’s all that matters during a rehab assignment.

“He came out of it feeling fine,” said Aaron Boone to George King following Warren’s first rehab game. “No giant red flags physically speaking, so that is good. Hopefully get better results next time out but nothing too alarming.”

Whenever Warren does return — following yesterday’s game Boone made it sound like Warren could be back at some point within the next week — the Yankees will have to squeeze him into their eight-man bullpen somehow. We know who’s staying and who has a chance to go. Barring injury, Warren will replace either Chasen Shreve, Jonathan Holder, or A.J. Cole. The other dudes are safe. You know it, I know it, they know it.

Cole seems to have taken well to the team’s anti-fastball philosophy and Shreve, like Cole, is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers, and since he’s left-handed and breathing, he’d likely get claimed. Holder can be optioned down and in these situations teams often take the path of least resistance. Send down Holder and you get to keep everyone. Dump Cole or Shreve and you’re losing a bullpen arm.

Over the last few weeks though, Holder hasn’t just shown the Yankees he deserves a longer look, he’s quickly become one of their better relievers. The Yankees called Holder up when Warren hit the disabled list and since then he’s settled in as the fifth guy in the bullpen behind Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Chad Green. That’s the role Warren or Tommy Kahnle was supposed to fill, but haven’t for various reasons.

Holder was part of the Opening Day bullpen and he was terrible to start the season — he allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings before being sent down — but, since returning, he’s allowed one unearned run on four hits and two walks in 13.2 innings. He’s struck out 16. Very good strikeout rate (29.6%), excellent walk rate (3.7%), very good contact management (.279 xwOBA). Holder’s been awesome lately. Been a real nice shot in the arm for the bullpen.

Of course, we’re talking about 13.2 innings here, and every season literally hundreds of relievers will have great 13.2-inning stretches that will trick you into thinking they’re better than they really are. Holder’s not actually this good, but in his case, there might be a tangible explanation for the improvement. He’s changed his pitch selection. I wrote about it two weeks ago. Here’s the updated pitch selection graph:

Since returning from Triple-A late last month Holder has put his cutter and his curveball — a curveball with elite spin rate, at that — in his back pocket and gone after hitters with his slider and changeup (and four-seam fastball) instead. Righties see the slider while lefties get the changeup, and, coincidentally or not, Holder has been much more effective lately. I don’t think it’s a fluke. Change your pitch selection and get better results, and I’m taking notice.

The Yankees have shown they’ll solve their “too many good players” problem by sending undeserving players to the minors. Ronald Torreyes was sent down a few days ago despite excelling in his utility infielder’s role. Dude is beloved in the clubhouse and had been on the MLB roster every day since Opening Day 2016, and he was hitting .339/.349/.435 (114 wRC+). He was sent down anyway. This business is rough, man.

We can’t completely rule out the Yankees sending Holder down to Triple-A Scranton when Warren is ready to return, though this isn’t really another Torreyes situation. Torreyes was a utility guy who, despite being productive in that role, didn’t play much. Especially lately. He started six games — six games! — in the five weeks after Gleyber Torres was called up. As unpopular as the move was in the clubhouse (according to Boone), it did make sense given the roster.

A reliever and a utility guy are very different, however. Torreyes didn’t play much. Win or lose, Holder will get a chance to pitch multiple times a week, and he’s pitching well enough that Boone may soon start to give him higher leverage innings. Torres and Miguel Andujar can play every day and keep Torreyes on the bench. Green and Betances and Robertson can’t pitch every day. There are innings to be soaked up and Holder can do it.

Warren’s return is at least a few days away, so we’ll see what the bullpen looks like when he’s ready to be activated. Someone might pitch their way off the roster — possibly even Holder! — or someone might get hurt. Who knows. The old “this will work itself” mantra hasn’t really applied this year. The Yankees legitimately have more good players than roster spots right now. That includes Holder, who is pitching well with a possible tangible explanation for his improvement. He’s done enough to stay around even after Warren returns.

With Kahnle and Warren out, a bullpen spot is there for the taking for Jonathan Holder

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(Elsa/Getty)

One-quarter of the way through the 2018 season, the Yankees’ bullpen has not yet been the strength everyone expected. The bullpen hasn’t been bad by any means. But it hasn’t been automatic either. David Robertson’s given up some big homers, the outs aren’t coming quite as easily for Chad Green, and Dellin Betances is still prone to meltdowns. It’s been touch and go at times.

To make matters worse, both Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren are on the disabled list, and gosh have the Yankees missed them. They’ve played a lot of close games lately — they’ve won a lot of close games lately, I should say — and the bullpen has been worked hard. Having Kahnle and/or Warren around to absorb some of the workload sure would’ve been nice this last week or two.

In the meantime Aaron Boone has had to rely on some other guys to get big outs, including Jonathan Holder. Holder had a miserable start to the season, allowing seven runs in 2.2 innings before being sent to Triple-A Scranton. Since resurfacing — Holder was called up when Warren went on the disabled list — Holder has been damn nearly untouchable for the Yankees: 9.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Most notably, he escaped a two on, one out jam in Wednesday’s win over the Red Sox.

“It’s nice to be able to go in and get the job done. Looking back, it was a big spot. I’m glad our offense is so good that we can put up runs like we did in the eighth and come back and win,” said Holder to Dan Martin after the game. “You just have to try to trust the process. I try to learn things every day since we have lots of experience in the bullpen. Sometimes it’s tough, but nights like tonight make it fun.”

Unlike most relievers in New York’s bullpen, Holder is not a blow-you-away type. He stands out more for his spin rate than his velocity. To wit:

  • Fastball velocity: 91.8 mph (243rd among 383 pitchers with 150+ pitches thrown)
  • Fastball spin rate: 2,314 rpm (130th)
  • Curveball spin rate: 2,818 rpm (17th)

Holder’s fastball velocity is nothing special but his fastball spin rate is better than the league average (2,263 rpm). His curveball spin rate is among the best in baseball and comfortably better than the league average (2,501 rpm). Holder’s curveball spin rate is on par with guys like Justin Verlander (2,851 rpm) and Tyler Skaggs (2,741 rpm). The Yankees are spin rate believers and Holder is a spin rate darling. That’s why he keeps getting chances.

Interestingly enough though, since Holder rejoined the Yankees, he’s more or less shelved his trademark curveball, and instead gone with sliders and changeups as his primary secondary pitches. There’s been a few curveballs here and there. Mostly it’s been sliders and changeups.

The Yankees had Holder work as a starter in the minors back in 2015 because he has a deep arsenal — they scrapped that plan because his stuff backed up so much when working out of the rotation — so it’s not like he pulled the slider and changeup out of nowhere. He’s always had them, but for years he was a fastball/curveball reliever because those are his two best pitches. Now he’s a fastball/curveball/changeup guy. Hmmm.

Let’s be clear here, Holder has thrown only 9.2 innings since returning. They’ve been 9.2 great innings, but only 9.2 innings. He had a similarly excellent stretch around this time last year. This could be nothing more than small sample size noise. I do think it’s interesting Holder has changed his pitch selection though, particularly because he’s put his trademark pitch (high-spin curveball) in his pocket in favor of the slider and changeup.

There is potentially a tangible explanation for Holder’s recent success. This isn’t the same Holder getting those outs. This is a Jonathan Holder with different pitch selection, and hey, once the league catches on, maybe he won’t be so effective anymore. For now though, I think Holder’s recent pitch selection and subsequent success is a #thingtowatch. The Kahnle and Warren injuries have created an opportunity for him, and the pitch selection changes could lead to him having staying power really for the first time in his big league career.

Yankeemetrics: Beasts of East battle in the Bronx (May 8-10)

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(Newsday)

The Good Giancarlo
The Yankees epic and historic romp through the beasts of the AL continued in the series opener with another white-knuckle, drama-filled win over the Red Sox. Through Tuesday, it was their 16th win in the last 17 games (dating back to April 21), a run that is even more remarkable considering that all six teams they’ve faced during this extended stretch were in first or second place in their division at the start of the series.

Giancarlo Stanton sparked the offense early, homering in his first two at-bats to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead after four innings. The home runs couldn’t have been more different, too. The first one was a laser shot he scorched down the left field line and over the fence. It had a launch angle of 17 degrees, the lowest for any of his home runs this season. The second one was a majestic opposite-field shot that left his bat at an angle of 31 degrees, the highest for any homer he’s hit this year.

While Stanton has suffered through an inconsistent start in 2018, he’s had a few outbursts of offensive production, and this was the third time he’s launched two or more homers in a game so far. He’s just the fourth Yankee ever to have three multi-homer games within the team’s first 35 contests, joining A-Rod (2007), Roger Maris (1960) and Mickey Mantle (1956). Oh, and if those names/years sound familiar, it’s because each of the previous three guys went on to win the AL MVP that season.

After the Red Sox battled back to tie the game at 2-2, Aaron Judge took over the hero role when he laced a tie-breaking RBI single in the seventh inning off newest Yankee villain Joe Kelly. Prior to that at-bat, Judge was 0-for-6 with three strikeouts in his career against Kelly. And, though it’s hard to believe, that single was the first time Judge delivered a go-ahead hit in the seventh inning or later at Yankee Stadium.

As the Yankee bats were mostly silent aside from Stanton’s fireworks, Luis Severino shined on the mound, dominating the Red Sox with his ace-like stuff. Overcoming a shaky defense behind him, Sevy struck out 11 and walked none while allowing just two runs across six innings. He became the first Yankee with at least 11 strikeouts and no walks in a game against the Red Sox since Mike Mussina’s memorable near-perfecto on September 2, 2001.

Severino’s slider was nasty as usual (11 whiffs, 9 strikeouts), but more impressive was the increased usage and effectiveness of his changeup. He threw a season-high 24 changeups, showing excellent command of his offspeed stuff. As you can see below, he located nearly all of those changeups in the strike zone or just off the plate, keeping the hitters off-balance while generating six swings-and-misses and six foul strikes with the pitch.

Gritty, Gutty Brett Gardner
The unstoppable pinstriped freight train kept chugging along on Wednesday night, as the Yankees comeback mojo propelled them to yet another wild and crazy victory. It was their 17th win in their last 18 games, and over that span they’ve outscored their opponents by a whopping 65 runs. The only other years that the Yankees had an 18-game run that included at least 17 wins and a run differential of plus-65 or greater were 1953 and 1947 — and both of those seasons ending with a World Series celebration.

You really can’t describe these wins as shocking or stunning anymore — no lead is safe against this Yankees juggernaut. After erasing a 6-5 deficit with four runs in the eighth, this was their AL-best fourth win when trailing at the start of the eighth inning, and all four came in the last two weeks.

Perhaps the most impressive part of their scorching-hot run was that there was a different hero nearly every night. Through Wednesday, during the eight-game win streak, seven different players produced the game-winning run:

  • May 1: Gary Sanchez go-ahead homer in top of ninth
  • May 2: Giancarlo Stanton two-run homer in top of first
  • May 3: Aaron Judge go-ahead RBI groundout in top of ninth
  • May 4: Miguel Andujar walk-off single in ninth
  • May 5: Ronald Torreyes reaches on error in fifth, go-ahead run scores
  • May 6: Gleyber Torres walk-off homer in ninth
  • May 8: Judge go-ahead bases-loaded walk in seventh
  • May 9: Brett Gardner go-ahead triple in eighth
(AP)

Gardner’s heroics capped off a huge breakout game for the struggling leadoff hitter — who entered the game with a .127/.256/.127 line in his previous 18 games (79 plate appearances) — and then went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a triple. He was 1-for-6 with five strikeouts against Craig Kimbrel before knocking in the game-winning run on Wednesday.

#FunFact No. 1: The last Yankee (before Gardner) with a go-ahead triple in the eighth inning or later was Johnny Damon on June 20, 2006 against the Phillies.

#FunFact No. 2: Here’s a list of Yankees with at least three extra-base hits, including a triple, in a game against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium: Gardner, Bobby Brown (9/24/1948), Snuffy Stirnweiss (8/11/1946) and Charlie Keller (5/23/1941).

Judge then tacked on a couple insurance runs in that inning with a titanic two-run blast to center, sending the ball 429 feet with an exit velocity of 117 mph into Monument Park. It was the hardest-hit and the second-longest batted ball allowed by Kimbrel since Statcast tracking began in 2015.

(Newsday)

Bittersweet ending
The Yankees comeback mojo finally went dry on Thursday night, losing the series finale to the Red Sox despite the inevitable late-game rally. This time, however, they couldn’t overcome another bullpen implosion as their eight-game win streak and historic three-week stretch came to an end. The Yankees also had their 11-game home win streak snapped, which was their longest at the current Yankee Stadium.

Dellin Betances wore the goat horns in the loss, surrendering the game-losing homer to J.D. Martinez in the top of the eighth after tossing a perfect seventh inning. It was the fourth home run Betances has allowed in 16 innings this season — he gave up just three longballs in 59 2/3 innings last year. This was also the third time this season that Betances had come out for a second inning, and the results have been ugly: in the second inning of work, he’s allowed six runs on six hits across those three games. However, last year, in those same situations, he allowed zero runs in six games when coming out for a second inning of work.

CC Sabathia was rocked by the Red Sox in his worst start of the season, coughing up four runs on nine hits across four innings before the rain delay. The large lefty had been in vintage ace-like form for much of the season before this clunker, and entered the game riding a slew of favorable trends:

Starts ERA IP ER Runs
Thursday vs Red Sox 1 9.00 4 4 4
Entering the game
Since April 19 4 0.39 23 1/3 1 4
At Home in 2018 4 1.33 20 1/3 3 6
Vs Red Sox Since 9/29/16 5 1.08 33 1/3 4 4

Jonathan Holder was the unsung hero of the game, taking over for Sabathia after the rain delay and keeping the game within reach as he retired all six batters faced. Since being recalled from Triple-A on April 21 (when Adam Warren went on the DL), Holder has been terrific out of the ‘pen. In 8 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just one unearned run on two hits with seven strikeouts and a walk. In his first three appearances of the season before being sent down, he was rocked for an ugly .467/.500/.733 line, giving up seven runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings.

Yankees place Adam Warren on 10-day DL with back injury

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(Presswire)

5:22pm ET: Warren has a lat strain and will be out longer than ten days, the Yankees say. He’s been pitching through it since the first series of the season, but it really flared up last night, hence the disabled list move.

12:27pm ET: Yet another reliever is heading to the disabled list. Earlier today the Yankees announced Adam Warren has been placed on the 10-day DL with what the team is calling a right back strain. Jonathan Holder has been called up to fill the vacated roster spot.

Warren threw 46 pitches in 2.2 innings last night, allowing a solo homer. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA (3.50 FIP) in 8.1 innings so far this year, and he missed a few games after being hit in the ankle by a comebacker. Warren has had back trouble before — he missed three weeks with a trap strain and another three weeks with back spasms last season.

The Yankees now have nine players on the disabled list: Warren (back), Greg Bird (ankle), Luis Cessa (oblique), Brandon Drury (migraines), Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot), Clint Frazier (concussion), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Tommy Kahnle (shoulder, biceps), and Billy McKinney (shoulder). Good grief. There is no word on Warren’s timetable.

Now that Holder is up, the Yankees have one healthy pitcher on the 40-man roster in the minors: Jonathan Loaisiga. He’s a Single-A kid who realistically is not a big league option. Non-40-man call-up candidates include Cody Carroll, Oliver Perez, Brady Lail, and Chance Adams. I suspect we’ll see those guys at some point this summer.