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Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus release 2019 top 100 prospects lists

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Top 100 prospect ranking season has officially arrived. Earlier today Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) both released their annual top 100 lists. Well, Baseball Prospectus released a top 101 list. Everyone else releases a top 100 list.

As noted earlier, the Yankees did not have anyone on Baseball America’s list. Kyle Glaser said OF Estevan Florial did receive consideration for the top 100, but concerns about his pitch recognition kept him off the list. Pitch recognition is the biggest development hurdle for Florial going forward.

The Yankees did have two prospects on the Baseball Prospectus list, however. Here are those two along with some other notable prospects:

1. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Reds (Yankees asked for him in Sonny Gray trade talks)
50. LHP Justus Sheffield, Mariners (traded to the Mariners for James Paxton)
64. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
66. OF Estevan Florial

Baseball America also had Vlad Jr. in the top spot. That kid will be A Problem. Baseball America had Sheffield at No. 27 and Trammel at No. 33. Sheffield ranked as their 12th best pitching prospect overall and their third best left-handed pitching prospect behind A’s LHP Jesus Luzardo and A’s LHP A.J. Puk.

As for the two Yankees prospects, Loaisiga over Florial surprises me a bit, especially because Baseball Prospectus tends to skew toward upside and long-term potential with their rankings. Loaisiga’s really good but he also comes with a ton of injury risk. Then again, the difference between No.64 and No. 66 on a top 100 list is nothing, so I wouldn’t sweat it.

MLB.com will announce their top 100 list during a live MLB Network broadcast this weekend (8pm ET on Saturday). Keith Law’s top 100 is due out sometime next week. I reckon we’ll see Florial on both lists. Loaisiga is a maybe only because that injury history is scary. There are healthier pitchers with similar potential in the minors who figure to rank ahead of him.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

December 17, 2018 by Mike

Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	J.A. Happ	Dellin Betances
	2B G. Torres/OPEN	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	Aroldis Chapman
	SS G. Torres/OPEN	RF Aaron Judge	CC Sabathia	Chad Green
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Luis Severino	Jonathan Holder
			Masahiro Tanaka	OPEN
BENCH	DISABLED LIST			OPEN
Austin Romine	Didi Gregorius	LIMBO		OPEN
OPEN	Ben Heller	Jacoby Ellsbury		OPEN
OPEN	Jordan Montgomery	Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Voit	LF Gardner	Happ	CL Chapman
	2B Torres/Wade	CF Hicks	Paxton	SU Betances
	SS Torres/Wade	RF Judge	Sabathia	SU Green
	3B Andujar	OF Stanton	Severino	MR Holder
BENCH			Tanaka	MR Kahnle
C Romine	DISABLED LIST			MR Tarpley
IF Alberto	Ellsbury	Heller		LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro	Gregorius	Montgomery		LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

The Up & Down Depth Arms [2018 Season Review]

November 21, 2018 by Mike

Here’s where the game of baseball is these days: The Yankees used 26 different pitchers this year, the eighth most in franchise history. That is also the fifth fewest pitchers used by any team this season. The Blue Jays led the way with 36 different pitchers in 2018. The Rockies used only 21 different pitchers, the fewest in baseball, if you can believe that. Wild.

Two of those 26 pitchers to wear pinstripes in 2018 were shuttle veteran Luis Cessa and newcomer Jonathan Loaisiga. Both went up-and-down this year — Cessa moreso than Loaisiga — but they held different roles. Cessa was the quintessential spot starter. Call him up, start him, send him down. Loaisiga had a somewhat extended run in the rotation. They finished with similar numbers (5.24 ERA/3.74 FIP vs. 5.11 ERA/3.53 FIP). Let’s review their seasons.

Luis Cessa

Cessa’s third year as an up-and-down depth arm featured eight (!) separate call-ups — four times he was called up to make a spot start or long relief appearance and sent down the next day — and 44.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) spread across five starts and eleven relief appearances. He also missed two months with an oblique injury and threw 26.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.38 FIP) with Triple-A Scranton. Typical Luis Cessa stuff, basically.

The Good: Cessa started the season with two 1-2-3 inning short relief appearances, during which he struck out three of six batters faced. He also strung together back-to-back good starts against the Orioles (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and Rays (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) in July.

Also, Cessa had a nice little run as a multi-inning mop-up guy late in the season. He even recorded his first career save when he threw the final three innings of a blowout win over the O’s on August 25th. From August 25th through September 29th, Cessa made six appearances and threw three innings in five of them, and posted a 3.18 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Opponents hit .250/.271/.382 against him. That’ll work.

The Bad: Pretty much everything else. The Red Sox hung five runs on Cessa in 3.2 innings on August 2nd. Next time out the Rays punished him for five runs in 3.1 innings. And, on the final day of the regular season, Cessa allowed four runs in one-third of an inning and left the game with a hip injury after he stumbled covering first base. Fourteen of the 27 runs he allowed this year came in those three games. That’s 52% of his runs in 16% of his innings.

The Future: This past season was Cessa’s final minor league option year, which means he has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A going forward. This is not a good place to be, out of options and unestablished at the MLB level. I like Cessa more than most and I wish the Yankees would just stick him in short relief. The velocity is good and his slider has a comfortably above-average swing-and-miss rate. Stick him in the bullpen and see what happens when he airs it out for an inning at a time, you know?

Cessa will turn 27 in April and he did keep his 40-man roster spot through yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, but that is hardly a guarantee he will make it through the offseason. The Yankees could cast him aside to clear 40-man space in the coming weeks. For now, Cessa remains in the organization, and since he’s out of options, he’ll get a chance to win the proverbial last guy in the bullpen spot come Spring Training until further notice.

Jonathan Loaisiga

What a rise for Johnny Lasagna. At this time last year he was intriguing lower level arm who’d just returned from Tommy John surgery and had thrown 103.2 innings in his career, only 2.1 of which were above the short season leagues. Loaisiga was mentioned as a sleeper and the Yankees liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster despite the injuries and inexperience. After four dominant starts with High-A Tampa (1.35 ERA and 1.18 FIP) and six okay starts with Double-A Trenton (4.32 ERA and 3.33 FIP) this year, he was in the big leagues. Crazy.

The Yankees were of course extremely careful with Loaisiga while in the minors. He has a long injury history and hadn’t thrown many innings in his career, so he made almost every minor league start with six days rest this year. Loaisiga was a once a week starter, basically. Also, in his ten minor league starts before being called up, he never threw more than five innings or 89 pitches. The Yankees treated him with kid gloves. That didn’t stop them from calling him up.

“He’s really talented, we think he has a very bright future. His stuff is really good. He’s a guy that pounds the strike zone,” said Aaron Boone. “Just getting to know him a little bit this spring, we don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed pitching here at Yankee Stadium in the big leagues. We feel like his repertoire, his stuff will allow him to have a chance to be successful for us.”

A promising four-start cameo — Loaisiga replaced Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation after Tanaka pulled both hamstrings running the bases — and a pretty crummy September bullpen stint gave Loaisiga a 5.11 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33 strikeouts and 12 walks in 24.2 big league innings this year. It was a 3.00 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 18 innings as a starter and a 10.80 ERA (5.26 FIP) in 6.2 innings as a reliever.

The Good: In his big league debut Loaisiga struck out six in five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15th. He looked poised and his fastball topped out at 97.7 mph, which was pleasantly surprising. Loaisiga’s best start was his third start. He tossed five no-hit innings in Philadelphia before giving up a sixth inning leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. His night ended with that one hit allowed in 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.

In September, Loaisiga struck out four in two scoreless innings in Oakland on September 3rd. I was hoping he’d emerge as a multi-inning relief weapon in those final few weeks of the regular season — a higher end version of Adam Warren, basically — but it didn’t happen. Two very good starts and one nice two-inning relief appearances were the highlights of Loaisiga’s big league debut.

In terms of stuff, man did the kid show the goods. Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 95.9 mph. His breaking ball averaged 84.6 mph. His changeup averaged 88.2 mph. Everything he throws is hard. Also, Loaisiga’s average spin rates are quite good:

Fastball: 2,341 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)
Breaking ball: 2,648 rpm (MLB average: 2,434 rpm)
Changeup: 1,720 rpm (MLB average: 1,774 rpm)

The higher the spin, the better on fastballs and breaking balls. For changeups, lower spin is better. (Low spin is okay on fastballs too. You don’t want average spin on heaters though. High or low, nothing in between.) Loaisiga showed three legitimate Major League pitches in his brief time with the Yankees and he got swings and misses with everything. The kid also seemed very composed on the mound. Innings rarely spiraled out of control.

The Bad: In two of his big league starts, Loaisiga needed 84 pitches to allow three runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners and 92 pitches to allow three runs in four innings against the Braves. Also, he got hit pretty hard in September. I’m talking eleven runs (eight earned) in four appearances and 4.2 innings after those two innings in Oakland. That included a six-run, 1.1-inning disaster against the Twins on September 11th. Ouch.

To me, Loaisiga’s struggles looked more like a young and inexperienced pitcher learning the ropes than anything. I didn’t see a flaw in his stuff. He executed some good fastballs and breaking balls off the plate, pitches hitters probably chase in the minors, and big leaguers didn’t bite. Considering his relative lack of minor league experience, it is not at all surprising Loaisiga was inefficient and a little lost at times. He’ll get better with time.

The Future: Loaisiga turned 24 earlier this month and he made it clear this season he has big league potential. The stuff is there and the composure was there. He’s a little green, which is to be expected. I definitely think Loaisiga has the stuff and command to start long-term. I just have no idea whether he’ll stay healthy. The injury history is ugly. Shoulder and elbow problems. He even missed time with shoulder fatigue after being sent back down this summer.

The range of potential outcomes for 2019 Loaisiga seem awfully large. I wouldn’t be surprised if he blows out his arm and misses the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 150-ish innings with a mid-3.00s ERA. The talent is there, unquestionably. Can he still healthy? Does all the missed time earlier in his career hold him back? Loaisiga has never pitched in Triple-A. Not one single pitch. I imagine he’ll spend most of next season there.

To me, Loaisiga seems like an excellent candidate for an opener. By that I mean a reliever starts the game, faces the top of the lineup, then turns it over to Loaisiga for four or five innings. That might be the best way to use him next year. Then, once he gets a little more comfortable and gains a little more experience, the Yankees will hopefully be able to turn him loose as a full-fledged starter. The little bit we saw this year was promising though. It was a remarkable rise from relative unknown to big leaguer for Johnny Lasagna in 2018.

Thoughts on Baseball America’s top ten Yankees’ prospects

November 5, 2018 by Mike

Winter prospect ranking season is underway and, last week, Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their latest top ten Yankees’ prospects list. “The Yankees’ farm system is as deep and diversified as a well-planned investment portfolio … It has so many talented young pitchers and enough athletic and strong hitters that the team is well-equipped to make trades while retaining a strong core of prospects for the future to continue to build around,” says a separate write-up.

The list and scouting reports are behind the paywall, but the list is all over Twitter, so I don’t feel too bad about sharing it here:

LHP Justus Sheffield
OF Estevan Florial
RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
OF Everson Pereira
C Anthony Seigler
RHP Mike King
RHP Deivi Garcia
RHP Roansy Contreras
OF Antonio Cabello
RHP Albert Abreu

Seven of the ten names are the same as my most recent top ten list. I was lower on Garcia (15th), Cabello (31st), and King (unranked). King being unranked on my August list is egregious. Big blunder by me. I’m always slow to run young international kids like Cabello up the rankings. Garcia? Eh. The difference between 7th and 15th isn’t that big. Anyway, some thoughts on Baseball America’s rankings.

1. The Yankees have some stud 17-year-olds. And Pereira is the most impressive. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a defender in center field with plus range and instincts with an average throwing arm,” says the scouting report, and again, we’re talking about a 17-year-old. Periera hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate with rookie Pulaski this year, so he didn’t blow the doors off the Appalachian League, but he was basically a high school junior in a league with college kids from this year’s draft, high schoolers from last year’s draft, and international signees from two years ago. The scouting report gives Pereira four potential plus tools (hit, power, run, field) and another average tool (arm) and that’s awfully exciting. He has a very long way to go to get the big leagues. The present ability is very good compared to other 17-year-olds. Pereira is among the guys I’m most excited to follow in the coming years.

2. Seigler’s intangibles are off the charts. With Miguel Andujar graduating to the big leagues, Seigler is my favorite prospect in the system at the moment. A switch-hitting catcher with some thump and good strike zone knowledge — Seigler had more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) in his 24-game pro debut this year — who projects to be an above-average defender behind the plate is my jam. Seigler was also praised for his makeup and grinder mentality before the draft, with Baseball America (subs. req’d) saying “he is consistently referred to as one of the toughest players in the prep class” in their pre-draft scouting report. The top ten write-up says Seigler went “so far as to request a Spanish-speaking roommate so he could work on learning the language” this summer. Pretty awesome. The advantages of being bilingual go beyond the catcher-pitcher relationship. It helps in the clubhouse too. Cliques form in baseball. The Latin American kids, the relievers, the veterans, whatever. It’s only natural for a population to split into groups. Anything that helps bridge the language gap and bring groups together in the clubhouse is a big plus in my book.

3. No one really knows what to expect from King. King, who came over in the Caleb Smith trade last winter, had an undeniably excellent season in 2018. He threw 161.1 innings at three levels with a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks. King reached Triple-A Scranton and is all but certain to get a look in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. “In the six years I’ve done this system, I think he has given me the widest range of outcomes. I’ve heard anything from seventh inning reliever to Roy Halladay-lite,” said Josh Norris in the Yankees’ top ten podcast. The scouting report says “plus command” helps King’s arsenal play up, which is good, because “none of King’s pitches is truly a knockout.” He’s a sinker/cutter/changeup/slider guy. I’m not really sure what to make of him. Maybe he’s an Adam Warren type? Or maybe it will work as a starter in the AL East? We’ll find out soon enough. The scouting report calls King “one of the safest bets to have a big league career” among pitchers in the system, and considering what the Yankees gave up to get him, turning two fringe 40-man roster guys into a big league anything is a pretty good outcome.

4. Cabello is a potential star. Cabello is one of those many impressive 17-year-olds in the farm system. The converted catcher — he is simply too fast and too athletic to keep behind the plate, so the Yankees moved him to center field — authored a .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) batting line with 19 extra-base hits in 46 rookie ball games before he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield. Cabello did need surgery and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Anyway, Baseball America posted the entire scouting report on Twitter, so make sure you check it out. They say Cabello has a “chance to be a true impact bat in the middle of the order,” and, on the podcast, Norris compared his hitting acumen to Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s and Juan Soto’s at the same age. Huh. That is some very high praise. That is presumably another reason for the position change. The bat is going to be ready far sooner than the defense behind the plate. As with Pereira, Cabello has a very long way to go given his age, but the fact these two are getting such strong reviews so early in their careers is exciting. The Yankees still have a strong farm system and both guys landing in the top ten tells you they are well-regarded.

5. German has already added velocity. In a separate write-up (subs. req’d), Norris reviewed the Yankees’ 2018 draft class, and he notes fourth round pick RHP Frank German was “up to 98 mph with his fastball as a pro after sitting 92-94 during a dominating junior season.” So the Yankees have already worked their “add a bunch of velocity” magic with their fourth rounder. Pretty cool. It’s all about the arm action, apparently. I’ve read the Yankees (and Dodgers) scout specific arm actions because they know how it works and know how to use it to add velocity. German showed a promising slider and curveball in college, and, in his pro debut, he threw 30.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA (1.39 FIP) and excellent strikeout (34.2%) and walk (5.0%) rates. We’ll see how the newfound velocity holds up over a full season next year. The fact German’s already raised his stock in his short time as a pro is pretty fun though.

DotF: Estrada returns to game action in Arizona Fall League

October 19, 2018 by Mike

It’s been more than a month since our last minor league update, and now that the Arizona Fall League season is underway and the various Caribbean winter leagues are starting to get going, it’s time for a check-in. Here are some notes to get us started.

OF Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) is back home in Georgia and resting, Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty. Well, Clint was in New York this week, but point is he’s doing better. Cashman said Frazier will be recovered in time for the start of Spring Training.
MLB.com posted their end-of-season top 100 prospects list. Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. sits in the top spot. Four Yankees made the list: LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 31), OF Estevan Florial (No. 45), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 85). Glad Johnny Lasagna’s getting some top 100 love.
Jonathan Mayo put together a list of 20 pitching prospects who improved their stock in 2018 and three are Yankees: Sheffield, Loaisiga, and RHP Garrett Whitlock. “(Whitlock) finished third in the Minors with his 1.86 ERA and had a combined .214 BAA and 9.1 K/9 while touching Double-A,” says the write-up.
The MLB.com crew listed one AzFL sleeper prospect for each team. RHP Matt Wivinis is the pick for the Yankees. “He works with a pair of high-spin breaking balls he’ll throw in any count, and his curveball and slider help his low-90s fastball play up,” says the write-up.
Rob Terranova has more on Wivinis, if you’re interested in learning about the former independent leaguer. The 25-year-old managed a 2.41 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 34.5% strikeouts and 6.7% walks in 56 relief innings at three levels this past season.

Arizona Fall League

IF Thairo Estrada: 6 G, 4-for-25, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 CS (.160/.192/.160) — hip and back trouble ended his regular season on May 7th … he’s healthy enough to play now though, so that’s good
OF Estevan Florial: 6 G, 1-for-22, 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K (.045/.160/.045) — ouch, rough AzFL so far
1B Steven Sensley: 7 G, 5-for-25, 1 R, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 7 K (.200/.259/.280) — he’s played four games at first base and three at DH … he started only one of his final 34 regular season games in the outfield, so I guess he’s a full-time first baseman now … either way, he was always going to be a bat first prospect, but the outfield is always preferable to first base
RHP Jordan Foley: 2 G, 2 GS, 4.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 WP (6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP) — I wouldn’t read anything into him starting … the Yankees didn’t send a starter to the AzFL this year (RHP Domingo Acevedo was pulled due to injury) and someone needs to fill the team’s designated rotation spot, and Foley it is … he’s clearly a reliever long-term though
RHP Hobie Harris: 2 G, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 WP (5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP)
RHP Matt Wivinis: 3 G, 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 3 K (2.70 ERA and 2.40 WHIP)
RHP Kyle Zurak: 2 G, 1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1 WP (54.00 ERA and 8.00 WHIP) — last year’s eighth rounder was added to the AzFL roster late as an injury replacement for Acevedo, who was placed on the disabled list during the Double-A postseason with a biceps problem

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