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River Ave. Blues » Jordan Montgomery » Page 2

Eight storylines to follow as the Yankees begin Spring Training

February 14, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday and it didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first injury of the spring. Pitching prospect Mike King will miss at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Baseball always has a way of keeping you humble. Excited Spring Training has started? Well you won’t be seeing this pitching prospect this spring, sorry. So it goes.

Position players report Monday and the Yankees open their Grapefruit League season next Saturday. These next ten days are a grind. Baseball is happening and not happening at the same time. We waited all winter for Spring Training to begin and now we have to wait a little longer for actual baseball games, and even then the games are meaningless. It’s baseball though, and baseball is better than no baseball.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is a good time to break down some key Yankees storylines for the coming weeks. Players to watch, trends to track, that sorta thing. Here are eight storylines to watch this spring, listed in no particular order.

Seriously, what about Harper and Machado?

Look, I’m as sick of writing about them as you are of hearing about them, but as long as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, we have to talk about them. The stunningly stupid prevailing logic says MLB teams all have smart front offices now and they’ve realized paying top dollar for aging past prime players elite prime-aged talent is a bad idea. Did you know ten teams have a sub-$100M payroll? In 2019? Crazy.

Anyway, the Yankees only half-heartedly pursued Machado over the winter and they weren’t connected to Harper at all. “I’m surprised you’re still asking,” said Brian Cashman when asked about possibly signing Harper during the Winter Meetings. The thing is, the longer those two sit in free agency, the greater the chances the Yankees swoop in to sign one of ’em. The temptation has to be there, and, at this point, I have to think a discount is possible.

It feels like everyone I talk to wants Machado and Harper to sign just to get it over with already. We’re sick of hearing about them and, frankly, it’s embarrassing for baseball that these two are unemployed as camp opens. It looks bad. Hopefully the Yankees can sign either Machado or Harper. That would be preferable but weeks ago I accepted they’re probably going elsewhere. Until they sign though, their situation has to be monitored.

Tulowitzki’s comeback attempt

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki has fully recovered from last year’s dual heel surgeries and is as healthy as he’s been at any point in the last couple years, plus he is basically free, so the Yankees could easily cut him loose should he not get the job done. The Bad: The Yankees seem very committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop and I’m not sure they would cut him loose even if his production warrants it.

“The plan right now is to get Troy ready to play shortstop. That’s where he’ll focus,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. “As the weeks — as the months — unfold we’ll adjust if we need to. We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there.”

“We were all in. He really looked athletic (during his workout), it looked like he had that bounce back in his step. We feel there is a lot of potential upside here,” said Cashman last month. I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s a low-risk contract and, as a former star caliber player, there’s always a chance he has a late-career dead cat bounce season. Think Eric Chavez in 2012. He’s worth a look with Didi Gregorius out.

Tulowitzki has not played since July 2017 and you kinda have to expect some rust after that. He has been working out all winter — Tulowitzki has been in Tampa working out at the minor league complex for a few days now even though position players aren’t due to report until Monday — but there’s no substitute for game action. Those first few live pitches and ground balls might speed up on him a little bit, you know?

Spring Training performance is not very predictive and that will be especially true in Tulowitzki’s case. Certainly it would be great to see him knock the snot out of the ball and vacuum up everything at shortstop for a few weeks. Even then, we won’t know how long it’ll last because he’s had so many injury problems throughout his career. For all intents and purposes, we’re going into camp with no idea what to expect from Tulowitzki. We’ll learn as we go.

Andujar’s defense

“Entirely at third,” Boone came out and said yesterday when asked where Miguel Andujar will play going forward. “That said, there may be a day or two that we pick to have him on a back field just getting some first base in — which we may do with a (Austin) Romine or a Gary (Sanchez) — pick a day just to keep some versatile options when you get into a little bit of a bind. His game work will be, I’ll say pretty much entirely at third base.”

Last season Andujar was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball (according to DRS) and the Yankees sent him into the offseason with a plan to improve what he does before the pitch is thrown. They want him to get in better position to react and make plays, basically. Andujar’s hands and throwing arm are pretty good! There are times he stumbles over his own feet though, and he rushes his throws because he double-clutches so often.

I have no illusions of Andujar becoming an above-average defender. He is a tireless worker and I don’t doubt that he’ll try to improve. It’s just that going from that bad to that good is unlikely. Has anyone else done it? Gone from being one of the worst defenders in baseball, statistically, to being legitimately above-average? I can’t think of anyone. My hopes are modest. Andujar becomes an average defender who makes routine plays look routine. That’s all I’m asking.

I think two things will happen this spring: One, any Andujar misplay will be magnified, and two, he’ll look better than expected at third base because we’ve kinda lost perspective about him as a defender after spending all winter talking about how bad he defensively. Pre-pitch setup is not something we’ll be able to evaluate in Spring Training. At least not on television. Clearly though, Andujar’s defense is something to monitor throughout camp.

“I feel like he’s in a really good place defensively,” Boone added. “There’s some things that we’ve had him work on defensively that I think have really taken hold with him. And I think he’s had a great winter of work — I think all of you that have been around and have seen the work ethic, that’s reared its head in the winter — I feel that he’s another guy that comes into Spring Training in a really good place.”

Sabathia’s farewell

(Presswire)

On Saturday, CC Sabathia will make official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hold a press conference (with his family in attendance) to formally announce his retirement, and mostly take questions because no one has had a chance to ask him about it. Man I hope he doesn’t cry during the press conference. Not sure I could handle seeing the big guy in tears.

Once the press conference is over with, it’ll be time to get down to business. Sabathia had his usual offseason knee cleanup procedure and also heart surgery in December, and Boone said yesterday the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia early in camp. So much so that his first bullpen session could be a few weeks away, which would seem to put his Opening Day roster status in question.

Sabathia is fine, physically. It’s just that the heart procedure interrupted his offseason work and put him behind schedule, and he’s still catching up. The Yankees take it very easy on Sabathia in Spring Training anyway — he usually pitches in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games — so it’ll be tough to know exactly how far behind schedule he is. He’s a difficult guy to track usually because we rarely see him in games.

If Sabathia has to start the season on the injured list, so be it. Won’t be the only time the Yankees have to use one of their depth starters this year. The larger point is this is it for Sabathia, and maybe Brett Gardner as well, the final two links to the 2009 World Series team. It’s one thing when the veterans assume reduced roles. It’s another when they’re gone and the changing of the guard is complete.

How is the rehab group doing?

The list of rehabbing Yankees is sneaky long. Sabathia did not suffer a baseball injury but he will be playing catch up in Spring Training. Tulowitzki has technically completed his heel surgery rehab but is something of an unknown, physically. Clint Frazier is in a similar spot following his concussion and post-concussion migraines. Here are some of the other rehabbing Yankees and their statuses:

  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery): He won’t report with position players Monday and will instead stay home in Arizona for a few more weeks. Weird, man.
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery): Started a throwing program last week and is a few weeks away from swinging a bat two-handed. The Yankees refuse to give a firm timetable for his return.
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery): No update, probably because he’s not a big name player.
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery): Expected to throw off a mound next month and rejoin the Yankees sometime after the All-Star break.
  • Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery): He is hitting and catching, and will be held back early in Grapefruit League play. Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day.

We won’t see Gregorius or Montgomery participate in Grapefruit League games at all this spring given where they are in their rehab. The same is probably true with Ellsbury, and Heller as well. We’ll see Sanchez on the field and be able to track his progress ourselves. The other guys? No luck. The Yankees will give us updates when they’re deemed necessary and we’ll continue to guesstimate Sir Didi’s return date and Ellsbury’s future.

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius yesterday. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

LeMahieu’s transition to utility infielder

It has been nearly five years since DJ LeMahieu played a position other than second base. He played one inning at first base in an emergency situation on June 28th, 2014, and he didn’t even have to make a play. A reliever struck out the side in that inning. LeMahieu has played second base exclusively since that date and that includes Spring Training. The Rockies never worked him out anywhere else.

The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility guy — Boone said yesterday the plan is to give Tulowitzki regular rest in April in an effort to keep him healthy, which equals playing time for LeMahieu — and gosh, that always makes me nervous, moving a full-time player into a part-time role. It sounds great, bringing in a regular for a bench role, but it can be a difficult adjustment.

I have no idea how LeMahieu will handle it offensively. Not only is he leaving Coors Field, but he’s also going not going to get as many at-bats as usual. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine. He’s a legitimate Gold Glove guy at second base. His range, his hands, his arm, and his instincts are all good, so it’s not like the Yankees are asking a guy short on defensive tools to move around. I see four ways for LeMahieu to get playing time:

  • Start at second base on days Tulowitzki sits (with Gleyber Torres at short).
  • Start at first base when Luke Voit sits (or Greg Bird sits, I guess).
  • Replace Andujar in the late innings pretty much every game.
  • Play third whenever Sabathia (and J.A. Happ?) starts to handle all the pulled grounders by righties.

LeMahieu has the tools to play pretty much anywhere on the infield. He just hasn’t played anywhere other than second base in a few years now, so he’s going to spend a lot time working out at first and third bases this spring. Probably more than he does at second. My guess is LeMahieu winds up playing more than expected this season, maybe as many as 500 plate appearances, but this spring will be about adjusted to life as a glorified utility guy.

The few position battles

“Hopefully, if things play out from a health standpoint in Spring Training, there will be very few decisions that we have to make,” said Boone yesterday, and he’s right. At the moment the Yankees are poised to have very few position battles in Spring Training. Two bullpen spots and a bench spot. That’s pretty much it. This is the projected 25-man Opening Day roster right now:

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Luke Voit LF Brett Gardner Luis Severino CL Aroldis Chapman
2B Gleyber Torres CF Aaron Hicks James Paxton SU Dellin Betances
SS Troy Tulowitzki RF Aaron Judge Masahiro Tanaka SU Zach Britton
INJURED LIST 3B Miguel Andujar OF Giancarlo Stanton J.A. Happ SU Adam Ottavino
Didi Gregorius CC Sabathia MR Chad Green
Ben Heller BENCH MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery C Austin Romine ??? ???
Jacoby Ellsbury IF DJ LeMahieu ???

The rotation order and the batting order will be whatever they end up being. Those are 22 of their 25 Opening Day roster names though. There is one open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. Should Sabathia have to begin the season on the injured list, then there will be a competition for the fifth starter’s spot as well. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees only have to figure out the 23rd, 24th, and 25th men on their roster.

With Ellsbury out of the picture, the final bench spot comes down to Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade. There’s a small army of relievers up for those bullpen roles. Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley, so on and so forth. Cessa and Kahnle are out of minor league options and that might give them a leg up on the competition — Boone hinted that Cessa is headed for a bullpen role yesterday — but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Spring Training competitions are kinda weird. First and foremost, spring performance is not very predictive, and yet teams base roster decisions on spring performance all the time. We see it every year. Bird could hit .350/.450/.750 during Grapefruit League play and it wouldn’t tell us a thing about him going forward, but it would probably land him on the Opening Day roster. Hard to ignore numbers like that, you know?

And secondly, Spring Training competitions don’t end on Opening Day. Whoever wins the final bullpen spot better pitch well during the regular season, otherwise the Yanks will swap them out with someone else. Winning a spring position battle is the easy part. Keeping the job is where it gets difficult. The Yankees have a few roster decisions to make in camp. Thankfully nothing major. And it’s entirely possible those roster decisions could be upended a few weeks into the regular season. Such is life.

Farquhar’s comeback attempt

Last, but certainly not least, the Yankees have a feel-good story in camp in Danny Farquhar. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s healthy, and that’s all that matters. Farquhar suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April when a brain aneurysm ruptured. He collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox and had to be rushed to the hospital, where he remained for three weeks.

Farquhar’s recovery is complete and he will be a fully participant in Spring Training — his first spring bullpen session is scheduled for tomorrow — which is wonderful news. Maybe he won’t make the roster and instead go to Triple-A, or opt out of his contract and sign with a team willing to put him on their Opening Day roster. Either way, I’m glad Farquhar recovered and able to resume his career, and I think it’s pretty cool he’ll do it with the Yankees.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Bryce Harper, CC Sabathia, Danny Farquhar, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Jordan Montgomery, Manny Machado, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki

Feb. 13th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Ellsbury, Severino, Montgomery, Diehl, Stephan

February 13, 2019 by Mike

It was cloudy and rainy in Florida today but I don’t care. Baseball is back. The Yankees opened Spring Training today and Aaron Boone held his annual start-of-spring press conference (video above). More questions were asked about Manny Machado (two) than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres combined (zero).

“There’s no question, we’ll embrace (the expectations),” Boone said. “I think everyone that’s been here a while — and certainly the new guys coming in — I think understand what goes along with having the kind of club we potentially have, and being within this organization that the expectations are great. We welcome that.”

Here are some grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch between rain drops. Hey, it beats not watching grainy Spring Training videos, doesn’t it? Anyway, here are some photos from today and here are the day’s notes:

  • CC Sabathia has a press conference scheduled for Saturday. He’s going to officially announce he’s retiring following the 2019 season, which is no surprise. Sabathia has been saying this will be his final season since last summer. Also, Boone said the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia this spring following his offseason knee and heart surgeries. No surprise there.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) will stay home in Arizona for a few weeks and not report to camp with position players on Monday. His offseason rehab work was slowed by plantar fasciitis. This is kinda weird. Usually teams want rehabbing players in camp so they can, you know, help them rehab. Anyway, Ellsbury won’t be ready for Opening Day. Congrats to the Steinbrenners for getting more of that sweet insurance money.
  • Jordan Montgomery is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He is currently making 50 throws at 90 feet and has been doing that for a few weeks now. Montgomery will start throwing off a mound next month and he is on track to return after the All-Star break. “I have my sights set on that,” he said. [Bryan Hoch, Pete Caldera]
  • Luis Severino admitted he tired down the stretch last year and changed his offseason diet and training program to compensate. He dropped 12-15 pounds and focused more on stamina and cardio than weight training. “It’s not easy. I really hate eating vegetables,” he joked. Severino came to camp noticeably bulkier the last two years, but there is such a thing as too much muscle. [Coley Harvey, James Wagner, Meredith Marakovits]
  • This year’s guest instructors: Carlos Beltran, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Hideki Matsui, Tino Martinez, Lee Mazzilli, Stump Merrill, Andy Pettitte, Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Swisher, and Bernie Williams. The Yankees hired Beltran as a special assistant over the winter and Rivera recently said he’ll start working with the team’s young pitchers. I’d bet on Alex Rodriguez showing up to camp at some point as well. Jorge Posada recently joined Derek Jeter and the Marlins as a special advisor, so don’t expect to see him in camp. [Coley Harvey]
  • The Yankees have invited lefty Phil Diehl and righty Trevor Stephan to Spring Training, the team announced. Stephan gets an invite after all. The Yankees now have 23 non-roster invitees and 63 total players in big league camp. Here’s some video of Diehl and Stephan.
  • Some new uniform numbers: Adam Ottavino (No. 0), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 12), Tyler Wade (No. 14, had been No. 12), DJ LeMahieu (No. 26), and James Paxton (No. 65). J.A. Happ and Zack Britton are keeping No. 34 and No. 53, respectively. No. 13 and No. 21 were not issued (again).
  • In case you missed it earlier, Mike King has been shut down three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. Baseball is always quick to smack away that first day of Spring Training excitement.

Pitchers and catchers have their first official workout tomorrow. Position players will report Monday and the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from Saturday. We have to wait just a little longer until real live baseball returns.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Montgomery, Phil Diehl, Trevor Stephan

Yankees decline to make CC Sabathia qualifying offer, claim Hanser Alberto among flurry of roster moves

November 2, 2018 by Mike

Hanser. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Free agency officially opens tomorrow and today the Yankees handled some roster business. Nothing exciting, but stuff that had to be done before free agency opens. Here’s a recap of today’s moves:

  • Did not make CC Sabathia the one-year, $17.9M qualifying offer.
  • Claimed infielder Hanser Alberto off waivers from the Rangers.
  • Activated Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery), Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), and Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) off the 60-day DL.

Eight Yankees became free agents earlier this week but only Sabathia was eligible for the qualifying offer. The other seven were either acquired at midseason or had previously received the qualifying offer, and were thus ineligible. Sabathia played for $10M this year and could be re-signed at a similar rate next year, so of course the Yankees didn’t make the qualifying offer. Sabathia would take that $17.9M in an instant.

Seven free agents received the qualifying offer prior to today’s deadline and they have ten days to accept or reject. For each qualified free agent they sign this winter (if they sign any), the Yankees will surrender their second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money. Every first round pick is protected. The Yankees hold the 30th overall selection and are locked into that pick. They can not gain any compensation draft picks this offseason.

As for Alberto, the 26-year-old is a classic utility infielder type who stands out on defense but hasn’t hit a whole lot at the MLB level. He did put up a .330/.346/.452 (106 wRC+) batting line with seven homers and hilariously low strikeout (7.3%) and walk (2.3%) rates in Triple-A this year though. Alberto has played all four infield positions as well as right field. Consider him in the reserve infielder mix come Spring Training.

I should note Alberto is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A next year. If there’s a roster crunch the Yankees could try to slip him through outright waivers later this offseason and keep him in the organization as a non-40-man roster player. I imagine that won’t happen until after the Yankees find a more viable Didi Gregorius replacement, if it happens at all. Point is, Alberto is a depth pickup and will not necessarily stick around for the long haul.

The 60-day DL activations are procedural. There’s no disabled list in the offseason so those four guys had to be activated. The Yankees had eight free agents come off the 40-man roster earlier this week. The four 60-day DL activations plus the Alberto claim mean the Yankees now have 37 players on the 40-man roster. (Brett Gardner stayed on the 40-man roster when he re-signed.) The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is November 20th, which will soak up some 40-man spots.

Filed Under: Transactions Tagged With: Ben Heller, CC Sabathia, Clint Frazier, Hanser Alberto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jordan Montgomery

A Lost Year for Jordan Montgomery [2018 Season Review]

October 24, 2018 by Mike

(Elsa/Getty)

Among the best developments in Yankeeland last season was Jordan Montgomery showing he’s a viable big league starting pitcher. He went to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and beat out 40-man roster players like Luis Cessa and Bryan Mitchell for the fifth starter’s job. Montgomery threw 155.1 innings with a 3.88 ERA (4.07 FIP) last year and was the best rookie pitcher in baseball by fWAR.

This season the hope was Montgomery would plow forward with his development while providing quality innings every fifth day. Does he have the tools to be an ace? No, not really. But pitchers don’t have to have ace potential to be useful, especially when they’re young and cheap. For years the Yanks had no success developing cheap back of the rotation starters. Now they had one in Montgomery and it was exciting.

Rather than move forward with his development, Montgomery was hit by the injury bug this summer, and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. He made six starts and threw 27.1 innings with a 3.62 ERA (4.22 FIP) before his elbow gave out. Montgomery’s season ended on May 1st. Baseball can be a real jerk sometimes. Let’s dig into Montgomery’s unfortunately abbreviated sophomore season.

Five Solid Starts

Montgomery made six starts in 2018 but it was really only five starts. He exited his sixth start after one inning with his elbow injury. It was a seven-pitch 1-2-3 first inning against George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. That was it. Walking off the field after that first inning in Houston was the last time we saw Montgomery on the field this season.

Coming into the season, Montgomery did not have to compete for a rotation spot. The Yankees and Aaron Boone were very open about having their five starters picked out (Montgomery, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) going into Spring Training. There was no rigged fifth starter’s competition or anything. The job was Montgomery’s. As it should’ve been.

“I viewed it as he was a front-runner for that spot,” said Boone in March. “We are really excited, not only about the year he put together last year but where we think he will continue to go. When I look at him I look at him as one of our starters.”

The schedule did not allow the Yankees to skip their fifth starter early in the season, so Montgomery started the fifth game of the year, and it happened to be the home opener. The home opener was of course snowed out, originally. Rather than use the snowout to skip Montgomery, the Yankees stayed on turn, and the next day Montgomery allowed one run in five innings against the Rays in the first game at Yankee Stadium in 2018.

In his five real starts before the injury, Montgomery only had one clunker, when he allowed four runs on eleven hits and a walk in 4.1 innings against the Orioles in his second start. Ouch. A quality start against the Tigers followed, then, in his fourth start, Montgomery had his best outing of his abbreviated year, throwing six innings of one run ball against the Blue Jays on April 21st.

As you can see in the video, Montgomery was dancing in and out of danger all afternoon, which is sorta his thing. He put up a better than average 79.3% strand rate this year thanks to a .208/.309/.354 (.296 wOBA) line with men on base and .130/.231/.130 (.181 wOBA) with runners in scoring position. Jams are inevitable and being able to escape them is cool, but it’d be down with seeing fewer of them going forward. (Montgomery put 37 runners on base in 26.1 innings in his five real starts. Eh.)

The Yankees had their starters on a very short leash early in the season as they controlled workloads, and Montgomery’s pitch count in his five starts was built up gradually: 80, 86, 91, 91, 98. That was not a Montgomery thing. It was an everyone thing. The Yankees did not let a starter throw 100 pitches until April 22nd, in the 20th game of the season. They did all they can to protect their arms. Teams do all they can to keep guys healthy and sometimes they still get hurt. That’s baseball.

Montgomery finished with a 3.62 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 27.1 innings with a strikeout rate that was down from last year (22.2% vs. 19.8%) and a walk rate that up from last year (7.9% to 10.3%). It’s difficult to know how much of that is sample size noise and how much of that can be attributed to the injury. Elbow woes do tend to lead to control problems, which could explain the increase in walk rate. That said, the plate discipline numbers real quick:

2017 Zone Rate: 42.8%
2018 Zone Rate: 43.1%

2018 Chase Rate: 35.2%
2018 Chase Rate: 34.1%

Montgomery’s zone and chase rates this year were essentially the same as last year. Within the bounds of normal fluctuation, especially given how few innings Montgomery threw this year. His average fastball velocity was down from last April (92.1 mph vs. 90.9 mph) which was a red flag, though it was very cold this April and Montgomery was coming off the biggest workload of his career. Losing a mile-an-hour was a red flag but alarm bells had not sounded.

Sometimes injuries just happen. Sometimes the biggest and strongest dudes with clean health records get hurt. The Yankees really eased up on Montgomery in the second half last season (remember Jaime Garcia getting all those starts?) and his workload increase wasn’t that extreme. Montgomery threw 163.1 innings last year. His previous career high was 152 innings in 2016. Minor league innings are not big league innings, but that’s not an insane jump. Anyway, here’s the timeline of Montgomery’s injury:

  • May 1st: Exited his start with what was initially called elbow tightness.
  • May 2nd: Initial diagnosis is a flexor strain with a 6-8 week recovery timetable.
  • May 26th: Montgomery starts playing catch.
  • June 5th: Yankees announce Montgomery needs Tommy John surgery.

I wouldn’t call going from a flexor strain to Tommy John surgery common but it does happen. It happened to Joba Chamberlain back in the day. It happened with Jason Vargas a few years ago. Johnny Cueto had a flexor strain late last year, dealt with more elbow problems this year, and then had Tommy John surgery after trying to pitch through it. I don’t think Montgomery or the Yankees did anything wrong here. Pitchers break. It’s what they do.

Another Year, Another Tommy John Surgery

For the Yankees, that is. Not Montgomery. This is his first real arm injury. He never missed a start in college or pro ball before his elbow gave out this year. The Yankees, on the other hand, have now had a starting pitcher undergo Tommy John surgery in each of the last five seasons. The list:

  • 2018: Jordan Montgomery (June)
  • 2017: Michael Pineda (July)
  • 2016: Nathan Eovaldi (August)
  • 2015: Chase Whitley (May)
  • 2014: Ivan Nova (April)

Okay, we’re pushing it with Whitley since he wasn’t in the Opening Day rotation, but he did make four starts before needing Tommy John surgery in 2015. Five years, five starters going down with Tommy John surgery. Approximately 26% of big league pitchers have had elbow reconstruction at some point. Losing a starter a year to Tommy John surgery is kinda par for the course. That doesn’t make it easier to swallow when it happens.

What’s Next?

More rehab. There haven’t been any updates on Montgomery’s progress since his surgery, which isn’t terribly uncommon for a non-star player in the early months of Tommy John surgery rehab. Not a whole lot happens in the first few months after elbow reconstruction. Montgomery had his surgery on June 7th and he should start throwing soon if he hasn’t already. It’s a long throwing program. Usually four or five months on flat ground before getting back up on a mound.

“I just show up every day and do what they tell me what to do. I have the same shoulder workouts every day. I run a mile. I put my arm in heat, then an arm bike and then do shoulder workouts,” said Montgomery to Randy Miller in late-August. “I’m probably getting close to being able to play catch, another month or so. That usually happens after four or five months. I’ll do it at home (in South Carolina). They have me set up with a therapist in Charleston.”

I’m not going lie, I am a bit worried about Montgomery post-surgery. He is the kind good-not-great stuff guy who has the most to lose after Tommy John surgery. A little velocity loss or reduced bite on the breaking ball could push Montgomery from rotation option to fringe big leaguer. Montgomery’s good! But his margin of error was never big to begin with, and if he loses a little something due to surgery, it’ll change his long-term outlook. It is what it is. Sucks.

For now, Montgomery is continuing to rehab and he’s not expected back until the middle of next season. These days the typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable is 14-16 months rather than 12-14 months. Teams have slowed the process down after there was a sudden rash of pitchers needing a second Tommy John surgery a few years ago. Montgomery is expected back at some point next year but the Yankees can’t pencil him in for anything, obviously. He might not be back to his pre-surgery self until 2020. Whatever he gives them next year is a bonus.

“I’ll be throwing bullpens in Spring Training probably and I’ll probably be back pitching in games before the All-Star break,” Montgomery added while talking to Miller. “I’ll be back next year. I’ll be the knight in shining armor in the second half.”

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2018 Season Review, Jordan Montgomery

2018 Midseason Review: The Rotation

July 18, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Tanaka and Severino. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

It is kind of incredible how good the Yankees rotation has been despite a laundry list of injuries (spoiler alert: three of the starting pitchers discussed below are or were on the disabled list) and the usual off-season/pre-season question marks. They rank:

  • 5th in GB%
  • 5th in soft contact percentage
  • 6th in fWAR
  • 6th in park-adjusted FIP
  • 11th in K%
  • 12th in BB%
  • 12th in park-adjusted ERA

It’s not an elite group, to be sure – but it’s nonetheless a strength when a pitching staff is average across the board. And it’s especially nice to see for a team that purportedly tried and failed to improve throughout the off-season, and remains ever-vigilant as the trade deadline approaches.

Let’s take a look at how the individual parts measure-up.

Domingo German

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Midseason Grade: D

It would be easy to look at German’s numbers as a starter and settle on an ‘F’ for his grade. There are several ugly peripherals in those 63.1 IP, including a 5.97 ERA (6th worst among starters with at least 60 IP), 4.58 FIP, and 1.71 HR/9, and he has failed to make it out of the fifth in three of his last four starts. That’s not great, Bob.

But we’re grading relative to expectations here, and I don’t think the expectations for the team’s 6th or 7th starter were all that high. Moreover, there are a lot of positives hidden in German’s season, too. His 26.6% strikeout rate is well above-average, his 8.4% walk rate is right around average, and his 41.7% groundball rate is right there, too. He’s also authored five quality starts (in twelve chances), and had another two that were just shy of that not-so-lofty standard.

Does that make up for his five starts that ranged from “bad” to “awful?” Not at all. But I do think that the combination of his slot on the depth chart, strong peripherals, and fifty-fifty shot of giving the team an adequate outing brings him above the standard of a failure.

Going forward, there are two things to pay attention to with German. The first is simple: his velocity.

He has lost about 2 MPH off of his fastball from the beginning of the season, which isn’t too shocking as he spent the first month in the bullpen. At the same time, though, he’s lost just over 1 MPH since he first joined the rotation on May 6 – and fastball velocity tends to increase as the season goes on and the weather warms up. It’s not necessarily a concern at this point, but it’s there.

The other is German’s pitch use in general. Fastballs (his four-seamer and sinker) represented 40.6% of his offerings in May, 47.6% in June, and 55.9% so far in July. With his velocity backing up a bit and three of his last four starts being bad, German’s pitch selection may well be an issue.

Sonny Gray

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Midseason Grade: F

I was excited when the Yankees swung their deal for Gray last July, as a long-term believer in his approach, stuff, and resume. And I was certain that he was going to come into 2018 looking more like the pitcher that they dealt for (that is, the guy we saw with the A’s in the first-half) than the nibbler that the Yankees received. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, and Gray is sitting on a 5.46 ERA (88th out of 92 pitchers with 90-plus IP).

There really isn’t a positive way to spin Gray’s season to-date, either. He has seven quality starts in eighteen outings, and has failed to make it out of the fifth seven times. He’s allowed four-plus runs eight times, and he’s just barely averaging 5 IP per start – both of which make him a larger drain on the bullpen than the other starters. Gray may not be the worst starter in the league right now, but he’s fairly close when you focus on pitchers who have been in the rotation the entire season.

If I had to hazard a guess at the cause of this, I would focus on his pitch selection. Or, perhaps more accurately, the anti-fastball approach of the Yankees in general.

Gray is throwing fewer four-seamers than ever before, and more curves and sliders. From 2014 through 2017, he averaged about 35% four-seamers and 30% breaking balls; in 2018, those numbers are 26.7% and 39%, respectively. That’s a fairly drastic change of approach, and that sequencing could undoubtedly cause issues.

At least he ended the first-half on a high note.

Jonathan Loaisiga

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

Loaisiga is one of the better stories of the Yankees season, having made his way back from multiple injuries to dominate four levels of the minors between 2017 and 2018, and making the jump from Double-A to the majors in mid-June. He has alternated good starts with bad so far, but the sum of his parts has been fantastic – he has a 28.4% strikeout rate, 60.0% groundball rate, 3.00 ERA, and 2.87 FIP. It’s only eighteen innings, but it’s encouraging. And, when you see the way his pitches move, it’s not surprising that folk haven’t been able to hit him with authority just yet. Just look at that change-up:

FILTHY 89mph Changeup from Jonathan Loaisiga.

This guy is nasty. pic.twitter.com/QyN4WcIY3I

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) June 15, 2018

That’s a thing of beauty, isn’t it?

It was short-lived, though, as he had to have a cortisone shot in his shoulder, and is currently shut-down. We knew that he was on some manner of innings limit, considering that he didn’t pitch at all in 2014 or 2015 due to injuries, and tossed a combined 35.0 IP between 2016 and 2017 around Tommy John surgery – but seeing him go down with shoulder inflammation isn’t what you want.

Jordan Montgomery

(Elsa/Getty)

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

The Yankees were only able to enjoy six starts from Montgomery this year, as the 25-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Those six starts were 27.1 innings of 3.62 ERA ball, which is quite good … but that’s all that they’ll get from him until sometime next Summer.

If you’re looking for some semblance of a silver lining here, it is worth noting that Montgomery had no prior injury history of note, and they didn’t play the waiting game with rest and rehabilitation. Surgery isn’t great, to be sure, but if it’s a necessity, sooner is better than later.

CC Sabathia

(Al Bello/Getty)

Midseason Grade: A

Is an ‘A’ somewhat aggressive here? Maybe. But it’s difficult to be anything other than impressed by how successful Sabathia’s reinvention has been. His 3.51 ERA is his lowest since 2012, and he has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 66% of his starts. With the exception of Luis Severino, no Yankees starter has kept the team in a better position to win than Sabathia.

Are there issues with Sabathia’s season? Sure. He spent two weeks on the disabled list in April, and he’s routinely shelled when he has to turn the lineup over for a third time (when opposing batters hit .359/.404/.644) – but his overall numbers speak for themselves. As does his pitch selection:

Sabathia has all but eliminated his four-seamer at this point in his career, and he’s also throwing his sinker far less often this season. As per Brooks Baseball, there have been eleven starts in which Sabathia hasn’t used a single four-seamer, including his last four outings. Cutters and sliders make up more than 70% of his offerings, and that mix was worked wonders thus far.

The All-Star break was well-timed for the soon to be 38-year-old, as he has scuffled in his last two starts. He’ll have nine days of rest by the time he gets the call, and he has thrived on extra rest this year, posting a 1.59 ERA in his six starts with six-plus days of rest. At his age, it would make sense for the Yankees to continue to give him as much extra rest as possible; whether or not they’re able to is the question.

Luis Severino

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Midseason Grade: A+

I’m going to present a series of MLB rankings for Severino, as I think that illustrates the greatness of his season better than any narrative can. He ranks:

  • 4th in ERA+
  • 5th in bWAR
  • 5th in FIP
  • 7th in fWAR
  • 7th in ERA
  • 7th in IP
  • 9th in WHIP
  • 10th in strikeouts
  • 10th in K-BB%
  • 11th in K%

In addition to those lofty placements, he has also completed at least five innings in all twenty starts, and has only allowed more than three runs twice. He’s a bona fide ace, through and through.

Severino did stumble into the break a bit, allowing 7 runs in his last two starts of the half, so he’ll almost certainly appreciate the extra rest afforded by the break. His next start isn’t until July 23, so he’ll have had ten days of rest (not including the All-Star game) when he takes the mound.

And, for what it’s worth, he had a fun All-Star game, catching Aaron Judge’s home run, and striking out Bryce Harper and Brandon Crawford:

I’m so glad that he’s a Yankee.

Masahiro Tanaka

(Jason Miller/Getty)

Midseason Grade: D

Last year was by far the worst of Tanaka’s short career, but it can be split up into manageable sample sizes. His ERA sat at 6.34 on Father’s Day last year, and fans were beginning to loudly wonder if the team would be better off with Tanaka opting out. And then a switch went on, and he was great the rest of the way. From June 23 through the end of the season, Tanaka pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 101.2 IP, with very good peripherals. That success carried over into the playoffs (and then some), as he posted a microscopic 0.90 ERA in 20 IP.

And then the calendar flipped to 2018, and the wheels fell right back off.

In addition to his 4.54 ERA (which is a tick below-average, translating into a 95 ERA+), Tanaka has bottomed-out in walk, ground ball, and home run rates, posting career-worsts across the board. His 4.90 FIP is the worst of his career, too. Now, to be fair, he’s not as bad as he was in the first half of 2017 – so there’s that.

The problem with Tanaka is easily identified – his propensity for home runs. He’s allowing more fly balls than ever this year, which means he’s allowing gopher balls at a career-worst pace of 1.94 per 9 innings. That’s the fifth-worst home run rate in the game, and that’s why he’s allowed 18 bombs in just 83.1 IP. And, for the sake of comparison, every pitcher that has allowed more has also thrown at least 18 additional innings.

One interesting note: Tanaka’s improvements last year seemingly coincided with more splitters and sliders, and sinkers being traded out in favor of four-seamers. That trend has continued to the extreme this season:

Could that have something to do with his gopheritis? Perhaps.

I was almost inclined to go with an ‘F’ for all of this, but Tanaka has at least given the Yankees some length in his starts, and he’s a league-average-ish starter. That’s not what you want from a pitcher on his contract, but he hasn’t been a straight-up dud like Gray.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2018 Midseason Review, CC Sabathia, Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray

Game 59: Beat the Mets

June 8, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

Maybe it’s just me, but the Subway Series seems to be a much bigger deal on the Mets’ side of town. Don’t get me wrong, beating the Mets is always fun, but it largely feels like just another series. In a way, this is a no-win series for the Yankees. If they win, it’s because they’re supposed to. If they lose, well haha they suck. Know what I mean? Eh, whatever.

Anyway, it might not feel like it because of all the rainouts, but the Yankees have won seven of their last eight games now, and they still have baseball’s best winning percentage a .690. They’re the only team in baseball with fewer than 20 losses, and while the rainouts have certainly contributed to that, it’s still pretty cool. Jacob deGrom is a tough customer, but the Mets are beatable. Here are tonight’s lineup:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Greg Bird
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. SS Didi Gregorius
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. RHP Masahiro Tanaka
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

New York Mets
1. LF Brandon Nimmo
2. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
3. CF Michael Conforto
4. 3B Todd Frazier
5. RF Jay Bruce
6. C Devin Mesoraco
7. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
8. RHP Jacob deGrom
9. SS Amed Rosario


Warm and mostly sunny in Queens today. It’ll be a good night for a ballgame. Tonight’s game will begin at 7:10pm ET and you can watch on either YES or SNY locally, or MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy.

Injury Update: As scheduled, Jordan Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday. In addition to ligament reconstruction, Montgomery also had a bone chip removed from his elbow, the Yankees announced. Everything went well. See you in 14-16 months, Monty.

Filed Under: Better than the Mets, Game Threads Tagged With: Jordan Montgomery

Jordan Montgomery to undergo Tommy John surgery

June 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Bob Levey/Getty)

Jordan Montgomery is done for the season. The Yankees announced this afternoon that Montgomery will undergo Tommy John surgery in New York this Thursday. He’d been sidelined with a flexor strain since early last month and he started playing catch on flat ground fairly recently. Within the last two weeks or so. Given that, the torn ligament is fairly new. Sucks.

In a sense, this changes nothing for the Yankees. Montgomery has been out a month already and wasn’t particularly close to returning, so it’s not like they’re losing someone from the rotation. The Yankees were always expected to pursue rotation help at the deadline and the same is true now. If nothing else, we no longer have to worry about the Yankees deluded themselves into thinking they don’t need rotation help because Montgomery is coming back.

Domingo German has filled in as the fifth starter since Montgomery got hurt and has been okay at best. He’s had some ugly starts and also some starts in which he deserved better (like yesterday), but was betrayed by his defense. Guys like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield are in Triple-A and could get a shot at some point, though Adams hasn’t pitched well this year and Sheffield was just moved up. Could Jonathan Loaisiga be an option?

It isn’t all that uncommon for a flexor strain to turn into Tommy John surgery. The Yankees have been through this with James Kaprielian and Joba Chamberlain in recent years, and others like Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, and Homer Bailey went from flexor strains to Tommy John surgery. It happens. The Yankees have now lost a starter to elbow reconstruction in each of the last seasons:

  • 2018: Jordan Montgomery
  • 2017: Michael Pineda
  • 2016: Nathan Eovaldi
  • 2015: Chase Whitley (he was in the rotation at the time)
  • 2014: Ivan Nova

Not great! Teams have gotten significantly better at protecting hard-to-fix shoulders — the number of major shoulder surgeries is down considerably in recent years — but elbows are still tough to predict. The Tommy John surgery monster came for Montgomery. It sucks, but what can you do? Pitchers break. Get well soon and see you next year, Monty.

Filed Under: Injuries Tagged With: Jordan Montgomery

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