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Scouting the Trade Market: Under-the-Radar Pitching Targets

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Hoffman. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

At some point between now and the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees are going to trade for a starting pitcher. It is not 100% set in stone, of course, just extremely likely. Jordan Montgomery is done for the season and Masahiro Tanaka will be out several weeks, plus enough physical concerns exit with Tanaka and CC Sabathia that adding depth to get through the 162-game season makes sense.

The trade deadline is less than seven weeks away now, and while many players will become available between now and then, we already have an idea who the top trade candidates will be. Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Tyson Ross, maybe Michael Fulmer, maybe Chris Archer. There’s a case to be made for acquiring each of those guys and a case to be made for staying away. They’re all should be available though.

We’ve been talking about those guys so much that I’m sick of hearing about them. I’m more interested in potential surprise trade candidates. The guys who become available that no one really had on their radar. The Tommy Kahnle pickup, though part of a larger trade, kinda came out of nowhere. Trying to come up with surprise trade candidates is never easy, though after some digging around, I think I’ve identified three possibilities. Let’s get to ’em.

The Project Pitcher: RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pirates

Background: The soon-to-be 25-year-old Glasnow is a former top prospect who spent several years in the top 25 of Baseball America’s annual top 100 list. Walks have always been an issue though, and in spot start duty from 2016-17, he had a 6.75 ERA (5.74 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 13.4% walks in 85.1 innings. This season Glasnow has a 4.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) with 29.4% strikeouts, 11.8% walks, and 51.1% grounders in 35 innings, all in long relief.

Breakdown: Glasnow is a Yankees-sized pitcher (6-foot-8 and 220 lbs.) and he has simplified things out of the bullpen this year, relying mostly on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard 80-ish mph curveball. During his days as a starter he also threw an upper-80s changeup and tinkered with a slider. Glasnow has shown much better than league average spin rates with his fastball (2,419 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm) and curveball (2,825 rpm vs. 2,507 pm). That is an elite curveball spin rate on par with Justin Verlander’s (2,837 rpm) and Charlie Morton’s (2,931 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The raw stuff is excellent — that’s why Glasnow was a top prospect for such a long time — and we’re talking about a 24-year-old kid under team control through 2023. The Yankees love physically huge power pitchers and Glasnow fits that profile perfectly. He misses bats, he gets grounders, and an argument can be made you’d be buying low on him right now. Would the Pirates trade him? Who knows. They haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making lately.

Reasons To Stay Away: Glasnow’s mechanics and lack of control are real problems. There’s some Dellin Betances in him. He’s big, his delivery can fall out of whack, and finding the strike zone isn’t always easy. Even during his prospect days, there was some thought Glasnow would fit best in the bullpen, where he could work in shorter stints and not have to worry about repeating his delivery 100 times a game. Those are really the only reasons to stay away. The stuff is good and he’s been healthy throughout his career. The mechanics and control make Glasnow a project, potentially a difficult one.

The Post-Hype Pitcher: RHP Jeff Hoffman, Rockies

Background: The Blue Jays drafted Hoffman, a semi-local kid from Albany, with the ninth overall pick in the 2014 draft even though he had Tommy John surgery a few weeks earlier. They shipped him to the Rockies as the headliner in the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015. Hoffman, 25, has been an up-and-down spot starter the last few years, pitching to a 5.65 ERA (5.15 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.7% walks in 130.2 innings. There is of course some Coors Field stink in there — Hoffman has a career 6.97 ERA (5.41 FIP) at home and 4.04 ERA (4.76 FIP) on the road.

Breakdown: Hoffman was not the ninth overall pick despite Tommy John surgery by accident. He’s a power pitcher with a deep arsenal. His fastball sits mid-90s, his slider and changeup are mid-80s offerings, and he has an upper-70s curveball as well. If you’re into such things, the scouting report at FanGraphs says the fastball, slider, and curveball all have above-average potential with the changeup being a potential average fourth pitch. Last season, during his only extended big league stint, Hoffman showed above-average spin rates with his fastball (2,385 rpm vs. 2,263 rpm), his curveball (2,687 rpm vs. 2,507 rpm), and his slider (2,706 rpm vs. 2,398 rpm).

Reasons To Trade For Him: The Rockies have more quality young pitching right now than they’ve ever had at any point in franchise history. Hoffman has been struck in Triple-A most of the season — he was recently called up for long relief duty — and, to me, he’s a great post-hype target. By that I mean a talented young player who was once a top prospect, but has since kinda faded out of the spotlight. Think the pitcher version of Didi Gregorius or Aaron Hicks.

Hoffman clearly has a lot going for him given his two quality breaking balls and high-octane heater. He hasn’t had much time in the big leagues, but he strikes me as someone who could really benefit from the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Look at Hoffman’s pitch selection during his 2016-17 MLB stints:

The curveball and slider (and, to a lesser degree, the changeup) are good pitches. Throw them! I know Hoffman throws hard, but approaching 70% fastballs from 2016-17? Seems a little high given his secondary pitches. Maybe that’s a Coors Field thing. The breaking balls didn’t behave properly in the thin mountain air and Hoffman leaned on his fastball. Either way, a 25-year-old with a good four-pitch mix who is under team control through 2023 seems like an obvious trade target to me, assuming the Rockies are actually open to dealing him.

Reasons To Stay Away: The Tommy John surgery, for one. There’s an injury history here. The larger flaw is that, even at his best, Hoffman didn’t miss as many bats as the stuff would lead you to believe. Despite a career 27.6% strikeout rate in the minors, his swing-and-miss rate has been consistently in the 9% to 10% range, which is well-below-average for a top pitching prospect. Trading for Hoffman would mean banking on a return to sea level and the anti-fastball lifestyle getting him to miss more bats and maybe get more ground balls too (career 43.8% grounders).

The Established Rental: RHP Garrett Richards, Angels

Background: At this point Richards is a known commodity. He broke out in 2014, battled injuries from 2016-17, and so far this season he has a 3.26 ERA (3.87 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts, 11.4% walks, and 50.6% grounders in 66.1 innings. The Yankees have hammered Richards twice this year, scoring 12 runs (eight earned) in four innings in two starts. Against non-Yankees teams, the 30-year-old right-hander has a 2.31 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 62.1 innings this season.

Breakdown: Richards truly has top 1% stuff, I believe. He’s upper-90s with his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, right around 90 mph with his slider, and low-80s with his hammer curveball. Among the 101 pitchers to throw at least 1,000 pitches so far this season, Richards has the highest four-seamer spin rate (2,607 rpm), the highest two-seamer spin rate (2,549 rpm), the highest slider spin rate (2,906 rpm), and the highest curveball spin rate (3,245 rpm). Spin rate is not everything. It’s like velocity. It’s one tool in the shed. But holy crap, no pitcher in baseball combines velocity and spin like Richards.

Reasons To Trade For Him: This seems obvious enough, right? Richards has shown he’s a very good big league pitcher with high-end stuff that produces strikeouts and grounders. He’s a free agent after the season, so this is a rental situation. For Richards to actually become available, the Angels will probably have to fall out of the race before the deadline, which simply might not happen, even with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons on the disabled list. The Halos are currently 6.5 games back in the AL West and six games back of the second wildcard spot. To me, they look good enough to hang around the race all season. If they don’t though, Richards may suddenly become a very in-demand trade candidate.

Reasons To Stay Away: The lack of success at Yankee Stadium (19 runs in 23 career innings) doesn’t scare me too much because Richards wouldn’t be facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium anymore. The larger issue here is his injury history, which is ugly. Richards tore the patella tendon in his left knee covering first base in 2014, he tore his elbow ligament in 2016 and managed to avoid Tommy John surgery by rehabbing the ligament with an experimental stem cell procedure, and last season he missed most of the year with a biceps strain. Trade for Richards and you run the risk of him getting hurt and not contributing at all. And maybe that’s a risk worth taking. It’s not like there’s a long-term commitment here. Aside from the injuries, everything else looks pretty good. Richards can bring it.

* * *

The Yankees should — and will — consider both short and long-term rotation additions at the deadline. If there’s a rental who could help put them over the top this season, great. If there’s someone available will multiple years of control who can help them win now and later, even better. Montgomery will miss most of next season and Sabathia might not be back. There’s no such thing as too much pitching, right? The Yankees have space for rentals like Richards and long-term guys like Glasnow and Hoffman.

There are some obvious issues with the three guys in this post. One, Richards might not ever actually become available. And two, are Glasnow and Hoffman guys who could help you win right now? Are they starting postseason games this year? Maybe they could. To me, they seem like future pieces the Yankees would acquire this season, tinker with the rest of the way, then really turn loose next season. They’d join the Justus Sheffield/Jonathan Loaisiga talent pool rather than the Luis Severino/Sonny Gray/Sabathia/Tanaka group.

Coming up with under-the-radar trade candidates ain’t easy. Glasnow, Hoffman, and Richards jumped out at me because the stuff is excellent and, in the case of Glasnow and Hoffman, they fit the “buy low on a talented player who is kinda sorta falling out of favor with his current team” mold the Yankees used to get Gregorius and Hicks (and Nathan Eovaldi). I have no doubt surprise trade candidates will begin to surface. Maybe these dudes will be among them. Either way, the Yankees are going to look high and low for another starter before July 31st.

Yankeemetrics: Heaven in the Bronx (May 25-27)

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(AP)

It’s Torres’ world, and we’re just …
After enduring yet another travel nightmare and coming off back-to-back stinging losses to the Rangers, the Yankees were happy to be back home on Friday night, and even more exited to see their perennial Bronx punching bag in the other dugout. They entered 2018 with a 28-10 record against the Angels at the new Yankee Stadium (including the postseason), their best record versus any AL team at the ballpark.

Gleyber Torres made sure that the Yankees would remain the only team in MLB without a three-game losing streak, delivering his bazillionth historic, clutch performance in their 2-1 victory. With the win, the Yankees also improved to 9-3 in one-run games, the best record in MLB, and put them halfway to last year’s one-run win total (when they were 18-26).

Torres wouldn’t have been able to extend his assault on the record books without a gutty performance from Luis Severino. The Yankees ace grinded through six innings, holding the Angels to one run despite putting eight runners on base, including a career-high-tying four walks. Still, even lacking his best stuff, we get to update our favorite chart:

Aaron Judge also helped keep the Angels in check with a run-saving assist to nail Kole Calhoun at home plate in the third inning, his second assist to home this season. The last Yankee right-fielder with multiple assists to home in a season was Ichiro Suzuki, who had three in 2013. The throw was measured at 100.5 mph by Statcast, the fastest throw by a position player this season.

Back to our hero, Mr. Torres, who added yet another chapter to his storybook rookie season. He sent the Yankee Stadium crowd into a frenzy when he crushed a tie-breaking solo home run in the seventh inning, his fourth game in a row going deep. You know the drill … to the bullet points! He is the:

  • Youngest player in AL history to homer in four straight games, and the fourth-youngest in MLB history. Only Miguel Cabrera (2004), Albert Pujols (2001) and Andruw Jones (1998) were younger than Torres.
  • Third Yankee second baseman to homer in four straight games, joining Hall-of-Famers Tony Lazzeri (1936) and Joe Gordon (1940).
  • Third player in MLB history to homer in four straight games while batting ninth in the order. The others were White Sox catcher Jim Essian in 1977 and Phillies pitcher Ken Brett in 1973.

It was also Torres’ fifth career go-ahead homer, all of them coming since May 4; in that span, over the past three weeks, all other Yankees combined to hit five go-ahead homers.

(AP)

Very dark skies in the Bronx
One day after one of the season’s most exhilarating wins, the Yankees crashed back to Earth with one of their biggest duds of the season. They jumped out to a 4-1 lead after two innings, but it was all downhill from there, as the Angels outscored them 10-0 the rest of the way. It’s the third time this year they’ve coughed up at least 11 runs in a game; last year they did that only twice the entire season.

This was not only an embarrassing loss, but also a rare one for the Yankees: it’s just the second time in the last 15 seasons that they blew of lead of at least three runs and ending up losing by seven or more runs. The other two instances were a 14-7 loss to the White Sox on June 29, 2012 and a 13-4 loss to the A’s on August 3, 2004.

Sonny Gray delivered another brutal outing, increasing his ERA to 5.98 overall (third-worst among MLB qualified pitchers) and a miserable 7.22 at home (worst in MLB). We’ve detailed here his struggles to get ahead early in counts, but there’s another potentially bigger issue that continues to plague Gray this season and again played a large role in his awful performance on Saturday — his massive struggles against right-handed batters.

Fifteen of the 21 Angels batters he faced hit from the right side, and they went 7-for-13 with two doubles, a homer, and four singles. The Angels righties pummeled him, as the nine balls they hit fair had an average exit velocity of 98.3 mph.

For the season, he’s allowed a .312/.395/.533 line and .397 wOBA to righties, basically turning every right-handed batter he faces into Jose Abreu (.398 wOBA this season). His OPS, OBP and Slugging Percentage allowed to righties each rank among the five worst in MLB for right-handed pitchers. [For reference, lefties are hitting .240/.348/.323 with a .306 wOBA against Gray.]

Much of that right-handed damage on Saturday was done by Mike Trout, who authored his own historic performance. He went 5-for-5 with three doubles, a homer and a single. He’s the first visiting centerfielder ever with four extra-base hits at Yankee Stadium (old or new). After Saturday’s game, Trout’s slugging percentage in the Bronx was .819, the highest by any player (min. 70 PA) at Yankee Stadium (old or new).

The game started out on a positive note, with Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge smacking homers back-to-back in the bottom of the first inning. For Gardner, it was his 12th career leadoff homer, the seventh-most in franchise history (Derek Jeter is first with 29). For Judge, it was his 70th career homer, a milestone he reached quicker (231 games) than any other player in MLB history (Ryan Howard is second, 233 games).

(New York Post)

This is heaven for Tanaka
The Yankees rebounded from their Saturday night disaster with a 3-1 win on Sunday afternoon, taking the series behind justenough offense and a dominant pitching performance from Masahiro Tanaka.

They scored all three runs in third inning, and the only hit in that frame was a leadoff single by Aaron Judge. We actually should call it a leadoff missile — the baseball left his bat with an exit velocity of 119.9 mph, the hardest-hit ball in play this season. Since the start of last season, there have been six balls hit with an exit velo of 119-plus mph in MLB — Judge has five of them and Giancarlo Stanton has the other one.

Tanaka produced his own bounceback performance, holding the Angels to one run on three hits in six innings. He struck out eight and the only mistake he made was a fourth-inning home run by Andrelton Simmons. He consistently froze the Angels batters, painting the corners and changing eye levels, getting a season-best 20 called strikes on the 60 pitches that the Angels took.

If only the Yankees played in the AL West … After Sunday’s brilliant outing, Tanaka improved to 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA in six career starts against the Angels. That’s the third-lowest ERA against them among active MLB pitchers (min. 5 starts), and the second-lowest against them by any pitcher in Yankees history (min. 3 starts), behind Mel Stottlemyre (1.49 ERA over 27 starts).

Yankeemetrics: The Rare West Coast Sweep (April 27-29)

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(USA Today)

Fighting Spirit, West Coast Style
It was deja vu all over again for these Cardiac Kids on Friday night in Anaheim. One day and 3,000 miles removed from their stunning walk-off win to cap off the series sweep of the Twins, the Yankees rallied for yet another dramatic and improbable victory over the Angels.

When Aroldis Chapman sealed the 4-3 win with a scoreless 10th inning, it marked the first time since Games 4 and 5 of the 2001 World Series that the Yankees had won games on back-to-back days in which they trailed entering the ninth inning.

The win was even more satisfying considering the fact that Angel Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Yankees in the Wild Card Era. Entering this series, the Yankees were below .500 at only one ballpark since 1995 (min. 100 games): Angel Stadium (46-58). And the last time they won a game in extras in Anaheim was July 31, 2003 – on a 10th-inning go-ahead single by the immortal Nick Johnson.

Miguel Andujar started the comeback in the ninth with a one-out double to left field. It was the 13th career double for #MiggyMantle, who became the first player in baseball history (or at least since 1908) to hit that many doubles before playing in his 25th career game.

His ability to pile up extra bases this season has been remarkable as well. That double was his 15th extra-base hit in 2018 (11 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers), making him the second-youngest player in franchise history to have 15 or more extra-base hits within the team’s first 25 games. You’ve probably heard of the other guy, his name in is Lou Gehrig (1927).

Brett Gardner sent the game to overtime when entered in the ninth as a pinch hitter and delivered a game-tying sacrifice fly. That was Gardner’s 46th career pinch-hit plate appearance, but the first time he’d ever driven in a run in that role. Unsurprisingly, his production as a pinch hitter is pretty awful: .135/.267/.162 with four singles, a double and (now) one sac fly.

The least shocking part of the late-game rally was that Didi Gregorius wore the hero’s cape, hammering a solo shot into the right-field seats in the top of the 10th to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. Amazingly, it was his first career homer in extra innings, and it was also his first homer away from Yankee Stadium this season. Before Friday, he was hitting .222/.294/.407 in eight games at Toronto, Boston and Detroit.

That blast was his 10th homer and 30th RBI of the season, all of which have come this month. The only other Yankee with at least 10 homers and 30 RBI in April? Alex Rodriguez, who kicked off his 2007 MVP campaign with 14 homers and 34 RBI in April.

To celebrate Didi’s heroics, we give him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: an eclectic list of Yankees to hit an extra inning homer against the Angels:

 
Date
Didi Gregorius April 27, 2018
Tino Martinez August 21, 1997
Dave Winfield May 25, 1988
Roy Smalley May 24, 1983
Mickey Mantle April 30, 1967
Roger Maris August 21, 1962
Tom Tresh July 14, 1962

Home runs are overrated?
The Yankees surprising destruction of the Angels continued on Saturday night with an 11-1 rout of the team that had previously been their longtime west-coast kryptonite.

This is only the fourth time in the series history that the Yankees have won a game by double digits in California. They also did it twice in 1996 (August 31 and May 27) and once in 1986 (June 4).

But, these huge blowouts have become the semi-norm for this Yankees squad. It was their third win by at least 10 runs this season — a feat accomplished just three other times in franchise history this early into the season. The 1994, 1939 and 1931 teams also had three double-digit wins within the team’s first 26 games. By the way, the 1939 Yankees set the MLB record for run differential in a season (+411).

(AP)

The Yankees pounded the Angels early and often, scoring five runs in the first and five runs in the second inning, while batting around in both innings. A few notes on their latest onslaught at the plate:

  • The last time the Yankees had 10-plus on the scoreboard by the end of the second inning was July 28, 2015 against the Rangers. That was quite a wild and crazy game, if you remember.
  • To find a game in which the Yankees put up at least five runs in each of the first two innings, you have to go back 10 more seasons to September 13, 2005 against the Rays.
  • And Saturday was the first time the Yankees sent at least nine men to the plate in the first and second innings of a game since July 24, 2007 at Kansas City

Perhaps the most incredible note is that they did this all without sending a ball over the fence. It had been nearly a decade since the Yankees won a game scoring more than 10 runs while not hitting a home — the last time it happened was May 25, 2009. Before Saturday and since the start of the 2010 season, every other team in the majors had done this besides the Yankees.

There were plenty of offensive highlights, but let’s instead shine the spotlight on the excellent job by Masahiro Tanaka. He held the Angels to two hits (though one was the #obligatoryhomer) and one run while striking out a season-high nine batters in six innings.

Tanaka’s career-long dominance over the Angels is noteworthy. He lowered his ERA against the Angels to 1.60 in five starts, the third-best against them among active starters (min. 25 IP), behind Bud Norris (0.43) and Chris Sale (1.23).

And another #FunFact for Tanaka: It was his third start in a row against the Angels in which he allowed no more than one earned run and struck out at least eight batters. Two other pitchers in the Divisional Era (since 1969) have put together a streak of three straight games like that against the Angels — Felix Hernandez (2014, 2015) and Clayton Kershaw (2015-17).

(AP)

Sanchez FTS (For The Sweep)
Another series, another sweep for the unstoppable Yankees. It was just the second time in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) they’ve swept a series in Anaheim; the other one was July 29-31, 2003. The 2-1 victory also extended their win streak to nine games, their longest since a 10-gamer in June 2012. This is also only the second time in franchise history they’ve won nine games in a row within the month of April — the other such streak came in April 1987. (Yeah, I know, that season didn’t end so well.)

Gary Sanchez gave the Yankees an early 2-0 lead with an absolute bomb into the left field seats in the fourth inning. Sanchez has 20 hits and 15(!) of them have gone for extra bases (eight doubles, seven homers). That’s the highest rate of hits for extra-bases (75 percent) of any player this season with at least 90 plate appearances. The MLB average this season is 36 percent.

And by the way, singles are overrated, according to Sanchez:

CC Sabathia was outstanding in his fifth start of 2018, going seven strong innings with one run allowed on five hits, and lowering his ERA to 1.71. This is just the second time in his career he’s had an ERA that low after five or more starts into the season; in 2006, his ERA was 1.52 after his sixth start and 1.71 after his seventh start.

Sabathia did an excellent job of painting the outside corner against the Angels righty-heavy lineup (despite the best efforts of umpire Angel Hernandez), changing eye levels and keeping the hitters off-balance all night. He got 26 called strikes among his 97 pitches (26.8 percent), the fourth-best called strike rate in any start of his Yankee career.

4/27 to 4/29 Series Preview: Los Angeles Angels

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Trout, Ohtani, & Upton. (Brian Davidson/Getty)

This series represents the midpoint of the Yankees’ eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, and they have done quite well so far, taking three out of four from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Twins. That being said, the second leg of this stretch is a bit more foreboding, as they have three games in Los Angeles and four in Houston before returning home for three against Cleveland.

The Last Time They Met

The Angels visited the Bronx from June 20 through June 22, taking two of three from the Yankees. That came a week after taking two of three from the Yankees in Los Angeles. Those two series book-ended a deflating seven-game losing streak, the middle of which was a four-game sweep at the hands of the A’s. Ugh. Here are some notes from the most recent series:

  • Mike Trout did not play, which makes the series as a whole sting that much more.
  • Tyler Clippard completed his transformation to unplayable in this series, pitching to the following line in two appearances – 0.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K. His ERA jumped from 2.22 prior to the series to 3.77 when it was over.
  • Aaron Judge hit his 24th and 25th home runs of the year in this series, becoming the first rookie outfielder to reach those marks before the All-Star break – which, of course, was still a few weeks away.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits.

Injury Report

Pitchers Alex Meyer, J.C. Ramirez, Matt Shoemaker, and Blake Wood are all on the disabled list, and none are expected to return for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Angels are 16-9, and sit just half a game back of the Astros for first place in the AL West. They’ve only outscored their opponents by 16 runs, though, so they may not be quite as good as their record indicates. Offense has not been an issue for the Angels, as they rank in the top-ten in baseball in both runs scored and wRC+, but their pitching has been mediocre as a whole. They’re in the middle of the pack in runs allowed and park-adjusted ERA, which isn’t bad – but they’re bottom-five in home runs per nine and walk rate.

Shohei Ohtani has been their biggest point of interest so far this year (even as Mike Trout continues to be an absolute beast), as he has raked to the tune of a 174 wRC+, and been competent on the mound (94 ERA+). The Yankees won’t see him on the mound this weekend, but he’ll probably start at DH at least once or twice.

The Lineup We Might See

Mike Scioscia is constantly tinkering with the lineup, as he rotates multiple players through first base, second base, third base, and DH. That is largely by design, though, as the Angels have versatile defenders in Zack Cozart and Luis Valbuena, and a part-time DH in the aforementioned Ohtani. They’ve already used nineteen different lineups, so it’s difficult to guess what they’ll trot out on any given day – but I expect something like this:

  1. Ian Kinsler, 2B – .239/.308/.304, 76 wRC+
  2. Mike Trout, CF – .295/.404/.663, 189 wRC+
  3. Justin Upton, LF – .235/.304/.398, 95 wRC+
  4. Albert Pujols, 1B – .257/.279/.455, 100 wRC+
  5. Andrelton Simmons, SS – .318/.396/.471, 146 wRC+
  6. Shohei Ohtani, DH – .333/.378/.619, 171 wRC+
  7. Luis Valbuena, 3B – .234/.263/.364, 74 wRC+
  8. Kole Calhoun, RF – .174/.200/.228, 18 wRC+
  9. Martin Maldonado, C – .172/.273/.207, 46 wRC+

Zack Cozart (.226/.284/.376, 84 wRC+) will almost certainly start over Valbuena against CC Sabathia, and Ohtani will probably sit that day, too. If he does, Pujols will probably DH, and Jefry Marte (.378/.425/.595, 184 wRC+ in 40 PA) will start at 1B.

Richards. (John McCoy/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (10:07 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Andrew Heaney

Heaney was a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball in 2014 and 2015, but he has yet to fulfill that promise. He was quite good in 2015, pitching to a 3.49 ERA (108 ERA+) in 105.2 IP, but Tommy John Surgery kept him out for all but one start in 2016 and five last season, and he hasn’t looked the same just yet. We’re talking about a sample size of 31 post-TJS innings, though, and he’s still just 26 – but he has a 7.84 ERA (8.04 FIP) in those innings, and his stuff isn’t fully back.

Heaney is a three-pitch guy, with a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s/low-80s curve. His curveball is his best pitch, and a true swing-and-miss offering when it’s on.

Last Outing (vs. SF on 4/20) – 4.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Saturday (9:07 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Garrett Richards

There aren’t many pitchers whose injury woes have been as maddening as Richards over the last few years, as the 29-year-old has pitched like a top flight starter when healthy … while missing roughly 50 starts between 2016 and 2017. He has a 3.08 ERA (123 ERA+) in 464.1 IP since becoming a full-time starter back in 2014, and that’s the level he’s pitching at this season, so things are looking up for him. He’s walking a ton of batters this year (16 in 26 innings), but he’s striking out even more (35 strikeouts)  and keeping the ball on the ground (55.0% GB).

Richards is a power pitcher, featuring a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-90s sinker, a low-90s cutter/slider hybrid, and a low-80s curveball.

Last Outing (vs. SF on 4/21) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 11 K

Sunday (8:07 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs

The story of Skaggs’s career isn’t all that different from Heaney’s; Skaggs was the superior prospect (he peaked near the top-10), and his TJS came back in 2014. And Skaggs has dealt with lingering arm soreness since then, as well. He’s been quite good so far this year, though, pitching to a 2.96 ERA (140 ERA+) in 27.1 IP, including a shutdown performance against the Astros earlier this week.

Skaggs is a four-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curveball. He throws that curveball roughly a third of the time, too.

Last Outing (vs. HOU on 4/23) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Angels bullpen has been surprisingly stout so far, ranking fourth in the majors in WPA and tenth in ERA. Closer Keynan Middleton has a 1.93 ERA in 14.0 IP, and lefty specialist Jose Alvarez (0.82 ERA in 11.0 IP) has been among the best in the league in his role. The injury to Blake Wood hurts their depth a bit, but Cam Bedrosian, Blake Parker, and Jim Johnson are all solid hands.

Yankees Connection

There are only two players of note here, in Blake Parker and Chris Young. Parker tossed 16.1 subpar innings for the Yankees in 2016, and was picked up by the Angels on waivers that October. And Young (.257/.326/.465 with 17 home runs in pinstripes) was signed to a one-year, $2 MM to be the Angels fourth outfielder in February.

Who (Or What) To Watch

There’s the novelty of Shohei Ohtani, the all-around brilliance of Mike Trout, and the all-time great defense of Andrelton Simmons, to name a few. And, if you think he could go on a mini-tear, it could be worth noting that Albert Pujols is just 6 hits shy of 3000.

Yanks trade Blash to Angels for cash or a player to be named

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(Presswire)

So long, Jabari Blash. The Yankees have traded him to the Angels for cash or a player to be named later, the team announced. Blash had been designated for assignment earlier this week to clear a 40-man roster spot for the newly acquired Brandon Drury. Too bad. I was looking forward to seeing some Blashtoffs in Spring Training.

Blash, 28, came over from the Padres in the Chase Headley salary dump back in December. He’s a career .200/.323/.336 (84 wRC+) hitter with eight homers in 279 big league plate appearances, all with San Diego. Blash has power, but that’s about it. ZiPS even projected him for 25 homers in 2018.

Even when Blash gone, the Yankees are loaded with outfielders. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury are entrenched at the MLB level, plus Clint Frazier, Jake Cave, and Billy McKinney are on the 40-man roster and will be in Triple-A. Good luck in Anaheim, Jabari.

2017 Winter Meetings Open Thread: Monday

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2017-winter-meetingsSo this offseason went from boring to crazy in a hurry, huh? After weeks of inactivity, Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels and the Yankees traded for Giancarlo Stanton (!!!) in the span of 48 hours. Just like that, the two most intriguing storylines of the offseason were resolved. Ohtani is an Angel and Stanton will be mashing dingers in the Bronx.

That doesn’t mean the Winter Meetings will be boring this week, of course. There are still plenty of quality free agents on the board — nearly every top free agent remains unsigned — plus surprise trade candidates always emerge. The Stanton trade is all but certain to be the Yankees’ biggest move of the offseason. They do still need some pitching though, and possibly a second baseman.

“I do think that the future is bright. We’ve got a lot of good stuff that is already in place, and we’ve got more good stuff coming. I thought everybody got a chance to see that on the baseball stage this year play out. It has a chance to play out that way even further in the future. I don’t think there is a lot for us to have to do. I think we’re going to be patient, and we’re going to be diligent,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch, barely three days before the Stanton trade.

Stanton will be introduced at a 2pm ET press conference this afternoon, which I assume will be on MLB Network and MLB.com. Now that the Winter Meetings are underway, we’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here. I honestly don’t know what to expect in the wake of the Stanton trade. The Yankees could very easily sit back and let the market come to them now. We’ll see. Make sure you check back often for updates throughout the day. All timestamps are ET.

  • 2:37pm: Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees talked to the Marlins about Stanton at the GM Meetings a few weeks ago, but it wasn’t until they lost out on Shohei Ohtani that they pursued him seriously. [Bryan Hoch]
  • 2:01pm: The Yankees are interested in Gerrit Cole, their 2008 first round pick. The “initial impression” is the Pirates are not trading him, however. [Heyman]
  • 10:57am: The Stanton trade is official. The Yankees made the announcement this morning. Here’s the press release. The trade is as reported: Stanton and cash for Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, and Jose Devers.
  • 10:30am: The Angels and CC Sabathia have had contract talks. Sabathia said many times he wants to remain with the Yankees, so maybe he’s using the Angels for leverage? [George King]
  • 10:30am: The Yankees are continuing to weigh Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley trade options. Ellsbury has a no-trade clause and apparently wants to stay in New York. The Yankees are said to be willing to eat half the $68M left on his contract to facilitate a deal. [Jon Heyman]
  • 10:30am: The Marlins initially asked for Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, or Estevan Florial in Stanton trade talks. They settled for Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. [Heyman]

(Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.)

Better matchup for the Wild Card Game: Angels or Twins?

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(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

With a week and a half left in the season, the Yankees appear set to host the American League Wild Card Game.

The team is still in hot pursuit of the division crown, but the Red Sox’s extra-inning escapes against the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays in recent weeks have kept the Yankees from catching up.

Therefore, it’s time to look at the two likely potential opponents for the Wild Card Game: the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins. The Yankees are 4-2 this season against the Twins and 2-4 against the Angels. While these are very different teams from past iterations of the Angels and Twins that the Yankees faced in the postseason, those records certainly mirror recent history between each franchise.

So which team is a better matchup for the Yankees in a one-game scenario? Let’s take a look at the pros and cons for each matchup.

Pros for facing the Twins

We’ve seen the case for why the Yankees would want to face the Twins this week. With Minnesota visiting Yankee Stadium, the Bombers were able to beat both of their top starters — Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios — while holding the Twins’ hot lineup at bay. Budding star Byron Buxton went 0 for 10 with a walk and was a non-factor in the series.

Perhaps the best reason to face the Twins is their bullpen. The Yankees got into the bullpen quickly against Berrios, who has significant home-road splits and therefore may not be the choice for a WCG. Rookie Trevor Hildenberger has been a revelation in recent weeks, but the rest of the bullpen is highly beatable. Matt Belisle is their closer and has converted just 7 of 12 save opportunities.

Their best reliever was Brandon Kintzler. He was traded at the deadline to the Nationals. That deal shows what the front office expected this team to do in the second half. Instead, they’re 28-20 since Aug. 1 and appear to be playing over their heads, although they’re 11-24 this season against the current AL playoff teams. The Angels are a more respectable 14-19.

They’ve had a lot of their success without slugger Miguel Sano. Sano struggled with injuries and is now on the 10-day DL with a stress fracture in his left shin, which likely has him out for the year. That should be a relief for Yankees fans: He’s the type of player that can turn a single game with his bat and is objectively Minnesota’s best hitter.

Cons for facing the Twins

There’s a lot to make the Twins a good matchup, but there’s also plenty of reasons to not to face them. A big reason to avoid them? Power. Even without Sano, the team has power up and down the lineup. They have five players with at least 15 home runs. They’ve hit the fourth most home runs in baseball since the All-Star break. And in the second half, they’re fourth with a 109 wRC+. They’re third in WAR thanks to a strong defensive unit.

Buxton epitomizes their resurgence. He returned from the disabled list on Aug. 1 and has batted .302/.348/.581 with 11 home runs and 21 total extra-base hits in 190 PAs. He’s still struck out 51 times, but he’s been a better hitter. What makes Buxton special is how he affects the game on both ends. He may be the best defensive center fielder in the game and he ranks at the top of the Statcast leaderboards for sprint speed.

In a WCG, the Twins could eschew their normal bullpen and simply use Santana followed by Berrios or vice versa, limiting the need for their parade of sub-par middle relievers. The Yankees can get to both, but they’ve each been special at times this year. Of any pitcher on the Angels and Twins, I would least want to face Berrios, who has a fastball-curveball combo that is unhittable when he’s rolling.

Pros for facing the Angels

Why would you want to face the Angels? Pitching, pitching, pitching. This team doesn’t have a clear starter for a one-game playoff, let alone a staff that you could see an easy path through nine innings. Three of their best starters — J.C. Ramirez, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Meyer — are out for the year. Their closer, Huston Street, threw four innings this year and is out for the season.

So who do the Angels turn to for a winner-take-all game? Parker Bridwell?? Bridwell is 8-2 with a 3.71 ERA through 102 innings, but his peripherals indicate he isn’t that good. He also has a 4.69 ERA over his last nine starts. Bridwell did hold the Yankees to three runs in 8 2/3 innings in two June outings, but he allowed nine hits and walked five to just four strikeouts.

Yusmeiro Petit has been the key cog in their bullpen and could throw multiple innings in a one-game playoff. Former Yankee Blake Parker has been solid this season with elevated strikeout numbers. But if the Yankees face anyone else in that bullpen, they should feast.

In the lineup, Albert Pujols still bats in the middle of the lineup despite batting just .242/.287/.392 (79 wRC+) and is an enormous negative on the basepaths. Teams have begun using extreme shifts to limit him further. The more he bats in the middle of the order, the worse things go for the Angels.

Cons for facing the Angels

Mike Trout? Mike Trout!!!! Why would you want to face Mike Trout in a one-game playoff?!?!

Having a stud starting pitcher is the best weapon for a one-game playoff (Luis Severino!). Outside of that, having a once-in-a-generation type talent that can dominate with his bat and glove is paramount. Trout is that. It’s like having a right-handed hitting Mickey Mantle for a one-game playoff. I’m not going to reel off his stats because Trout’s name should be synonymous with otherworldly success at this point in his career.

Unlike recent seasons, there is actually offensive talent around Trout. The Angels acquired Justin Upton at the August waiver deadline and he’s been mashing for three weeks in Anaheim. You’ll still want to avoid Trout beating you, but Upton makes you think twice before pitching around him.

Andrelton Simmons, the best fielding shortstop in baseball, has also turned back into an above-average hitter with power and helped turn one of the Yankees-Angels games earlier this season with a home run. The presence of Simmons extends their lineup, as does Brandon Phillips and the power of C.J. Cron and Luis Valbuena. It’s not exactly murderer’s row, but it’s more than the nothingburger the Angels had flanking Trout since their 2014 playoff appearance.

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Ultimately, the Yankees should win a one-game playoff if they get there. They have the best lineup, the best starting pitcher — perhaps the top four starting pitchers — and the best bullpen of any wild-card contender. However, anything can happen in a one-game playoff.

My take? While Twins look to be a more complete roster, I’d rather not face Mike Trout and co. in a one-game playoff. It’s kind of irrational because one player can’t beat you unless you let him. And in a five- or seven-game series, I feel like the better overall roster is a bigger advantage. Yet in a one-game series, having the best player on either side could be magnified, particularly if that player can do what Trout does.

Which team is a better Wild Card Game matchup?
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