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Four things we’ve learned about the 2019 Yankees so far in Spring Training

March 5, 2019 by Mike

In three weeks and two days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. They are a week and a half into their Grapefruit League season and, so far, no one has gotten hurt. That is the most important thing right now. The pitchers are getting stretched out and the hitters are still working to get their timing down. The single most important thing on March 5th is good health.

Spring Training numbers are full of lies. Tyler Wade’s .333/.412/.733 batting line doesn’t mean anything, and I say that as a Wade fan. J.A. Happ’s 20.25 ERA is no big deal. Spring Training performance is generally meaningless and yet, each and every year teams base roster decisions on spring numbers. Not major decisions, it’s usually only one of the last roster spots, but spring performance does sometimes dictate roster decisions.

The Yankees, thankfully, do not have many roster spots up for grabs this winter. We don’t have to worry about them reading too much into Grapefruit League numbers and taking the wrong guy north. That said, not everything we see in spring is meaningless and we have learned some things about the 2019 Yankees from their nine exhibition games to date. Here are four things we’ve learned so far.

Tulowitzki might actually have something left in the tank

Coming into camp, it was impossible to know what Troy Tulowitzki had to offer the Yankees. He’s battled injuries throughout his career and he hadn’t played in a competitive game since July 2017, and he’s also 34 now, which is where you’d expect normal age-related decline to become a factor as well. The Yankees decided to roll the dice on the Blue Jays’ dime because hey, why not? If it works, great. If not, then no big deal.

Tulowitzki took Marcus Stroman deep in his very first Grapefruit League at-bat this year, which made for great schadenfreude, but the home run was only a little poke just inside the right field foul pole. That ball probably sails foul if it were, say, 320 feet down the line rather than 314 feet. The more telling homer came in Tulowitzki’s next game, when he yanked a ball over the wall in the left-center field gap:

At his best throughout his career, Tulowitzki has been a (mostly) pull hitter who gets the ball in the air, and that’s the Tulowitzki we saw on that home run. The ball is jumping off his bat in the super early going (3-for-6 with two homers and a double), which sure as heck beats the alternative, that being his bat looking old and slow. Also, Tulowitzki has looked pretty good at shortstop thus far. He’s made some non-routine plays.

“More than (the homers), the way he’s moving in the field,” said Aaron Boone to Erik Boland when asked what most excites him about Tulowitzki. “It’s great to get some early results and get some homers out of the gate. But I’m probably more excited about how he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there. I think that’s the thing I’m even more excited about.”

After that long layoff, it would’ve been understandable if Tulowitzki came out of the gate looking rusty and sluggish. The guy hadn’t played in 20 months, after all. It would’ve been understandable and also concerning because the Yankees have Tulowitzki penciled in as their regular shortstop. Sliding Gleyber Torres over to shortstop and putting DJ LeMahieu at second base is a fine backup plan. Clearly, the best Yankees roster includes a productive Tulowitzki.

If nothing else, Tulowitzki has shown there is still some life in his bat, and that playing shortstop is not a pipe dream. He’s given everyone a reason to keep paying it attention. Will this last? Who knows. History suggests Tulowitzki will get hurt at some point. Tulowitzki came to camp as an unknown and the first impression is good. We’ve seen signs of a productive player, not someone who looks like he missed the last 20 months.

“I have a lot of work ahead of me,” said Tulowitzki to Bryan Hoch following his second homer. “Two games; I need to be out there more, see more pitchers, just be on my feet more. But I’ll take it. It’s a good start. I’m just having fun, man. It was a long road for me, so every time I step out there on the field, I don’t take it for granted. I’m trying to enjoy every moment.”

Bird is healthy

Greg Bird is a Grapefruit League Hall of Famer. He’s hitting .462/.533/.923 with three doubles and one home run through 15 plate appearances this spring and is a career .319/.420/.674 hitter in Spring Training. Bird has never carried his spring performance over into the regular season because he’s never actually made it through Spring Training healthy as a big leaguer. The last three years:

2016: Had shoulder surgery and missed Spring Training.
2017: Fouled a pitch off his foot at the end of camp and tried to play through it in April.
2018: Started the season on the disabled list after dealing with ankle soreness in camp.

Bird was impossibly lost last year after returning from his second ankle surgery in two years — he hit .135/.210/.260 (26 wRC+) after August 1st last season and looked every bit as bad as those numbers suggest — and the fact of the matter is the 2017 postseason is the only time in the last three years Bird was a productive big leaguer. Otherwise he’s been hurt or bad or both.

Through nine Grapefruit League games, we know Bird is healthy. Or at least he looks healthy, anyway. That’s a start. The numbers are nice, especially since he’s driving the ball the other way with authority …

… but I’ve been fooled by Greg Bird crushing the ball in March too many times already. The most important thing is health. It all starts there. And right now, Bird looks healthy. There looks to be more bat speed than there was at any point last year and he’s been nibble at first base. Bird is in Tulowitzki territory at this point in that it’s fair to wonder how long this will last, because history suggests it won’t. For now it’s so far, so good. This is the start Bird needed and the start the Yankees wanted to see.

“I’ve just been enjoying it, to be honest,” said Bird to Ken Davidoff about his Spring Training. “That’s it. It’s still early. We’ve got a lot of camp left. Long season. I’m excited. I’m excited for the team we have.”

The last two bullpen spots aren’t really up for grabs

Ah yes, a good ol’ fake Spring Training competition. Fake, rigged, whatever you want to call it. The Yankees have been known to do this from time to time. Make it appear a roster spot(s) is up for grabs even though they made their decision a long time ago. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with it. Competition brings out the best in people and there’s no harm in keeping players motivated.

The Yankees currently have two open bullpen spots behind Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Adam Ottavino. Barring injury, those two spots are going to Luis Cessa and Tommy Kahnle. They’re both out of minor league options, so they can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers, and there’s no chance either would clear. The roster mechanics factor into the decision at least somewhat.

Aaron Boone talked up Kahnle over the weekend — “That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here … That was exciting to see,” he said to Brendan Kuty following Kahnle’s three up, three down, three strikeouts performance Friday — and said his fastball sat in the 95-97 mph range without much effort. That’s very encouraging for early March. Last season Kahnle’s fastball averaged 95.5 mph and he put everything he had into each pitch.

As for Cessa, the Yankees very clearly like him, and they will need a swingman/sixth starter type on Opening Day. He has allowed one run in five innings this spring — “I try not to think about (being out of options). The last two years I put too much pressure on myself to make the team. Right now I will do my job and pitch,” Cessa said to George King recently — but it’s five innings. Who cares? Still, Boone is talking Cessa up like he is Kahnle.

“We believe he can fill (the swingman) role really effectively. It’s important for him to come out and pitch well, but we really like where he’s at and how he’s throwing the ball right now. I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year,” said Boone to Erik Boland recently. “I think he’s going to play a big role for us this year” is definitely not something that gets said about a guy who is fighting for a roster spot.

Beyond Boone’s words, Kahnle’s and Cessa’s usage is telling. Kahnle is getting the veteran reliever treatment and pitching early in games, against actual big leaguers. Cessa is working as a starter and getting stretched out. So to is Domingo German, which is only smart, but he has an option remaining. Other bullpen hopefuls, specifically Stephen Tarpley, have been pitching later in Grapefruit League games. They’re further down on the priority list.

Injuries can always change things and keep in mind the Opening Day bullpen is just that, the Opening Day bullpen. The bullpen will change throughout the season. Right now, the Yankees are talking and acting like a team that has already decided Kahnle and Cessa are getting the final two bullpen spots. Kahnle is worth an extended look to see whether he can get back to his 2017 form, and Cessa being out of options gives him a leg up over German.

Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day

This is something I think we all knew would be the case coming into the camp, but now it is official. CC Sabathia is working his way back following his annual offseason knee cleanup and also his December angioplasty. His offseason program was interrupted and he reported to camp behind the other pitchers. He started throwing bullpen sessions last Friday. Unless the Yankees rush him, which they would never do, Sabathia won’t be ready for Opening Day.

“We haven’t mapped out a timetable yet, but I have plenty of time (to get ready for the season),” said the perpetually optimistic Sabathia to Bryan Hoch and George King recently. “After I got the clearance from the doctor to start working out, I started working out pretty heavy. I knew coming down here I would feel good. I felt fine playing catch, getting on the mound the other day felt great and today, so I’ll just keep progressing. I feel great.”

Assuming Sabathia starts the season on the injured list rather than simply serving his five-game suspension, the Yankees will need someone to make two spot starts in April, and this probably means both Cessa and German will make the Opening Day roster. One will make the spot starts and the other will be the long man in the bullpen. Once Sabathia is activated, German goes to Triple-A and Cessa moves into the bullpen full-time. Something like that.

As long as the weather cooperates the Yankees can very easily arrange their early season rotation in such a way that Sabathia’s replacement makes his first four starts against the Tigers, Orioles, White Sox, and Royals. The schedule works in their favor. The Yankees can give Sabathia as much time as he needs while running their sixth starter out there against some truly terrible teams. That’s the best case scenario given the circumstances, really.

Coming into camp, there was a tiny sliver of hope Sabathia would be ready for the start of the regular season. That is definitely not the case now. That question has been answered. Sabathia is only now starting his usual spring routine. The Yankees have to figure out who will fill in as the fifth starter in the early going (I’d put money on Cessa) and prepare accordingly.

In-Cessa-nt Optimism

March 3, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

How many more Cessa starts do we have to watch? (Getty Images)

Perhaps it’s one that we’ve talked ourselves into because of its inherent logic, but a truism for the Yankees heading into Spring Training is that Luis Cessa is going to get one of the final two bullpen jobs up for grabs. This makes sense because he is out of options and even if it is the last player or two on the team, why lose a guy for (probably) nothing? Furthermore, if it doesn’t work out, it is the last slot or two on the team, something not hard to replace. In addition to the logic of the situation, though, Cessa does appear to be earning his roster spot.

The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Cessa and given him chance after chance to prove himself. The results have been mixed, but that might be a bit generous; he’s only infrequently looked like a Major League quality pitcher. Counting on him as starting pitching depth–even with Jordan Montgomery out–is probably out of the question now and that could be the best thing for his career.

It hearkens back to the days of the Joba Chamberlain: Starter or Reliever? debates, but it still comes out pretty true: pitchers’ stuff plays up in the bullpen. Being able to let loose for an inning or two is going to make your stuff look better. Just look at Chad Green, for example. Would he be able to get away with such a fastball heavy attack in the starting rotation? Of course not. Cessa’s fastball, meanwhile, is already pretty solid in terms of velocity. Brooks has him averaging just over 95 on the heater for his career. Airing it out in relief could add a tick or two to that, making it that much harder to hit.

Moving to the bullpen would also allow Cessa to drop his curve and changeup and focus on a two pitch fastball/slider arsenal. His slider–his second most frequently used pitch–already has about a ten MPH drop from his fastball. That difference could be even more stark and effective in the bullpen in short outings. Aside from simplifying and amping up, there’s something in Cessa’s career performance that points to potential success in the bullpen.

Like almost every pitcher to ever throw an inning, Cessa does his best work when facing a hitter the first time. Whether it’s as a starter (.688 OPS against) or reliever (.695 OPS against), his best marks show up in his first matchup with an opponent. The drop offs get pretty stark, too. Against hitters a second time as a starter, his OPS against bumps all the way up to .811. As a reliever? .841. His pitch count numbers tell a similar tale. His OPS against is .717 in pitch numbers 1-25. It jumps up to .806 for 26-50 and .812 for 51-75. It gets just under .800 (.796) in pitches 76+.

The clear part is that Cessa most likely belongs in the bullpen, where he can limit his exposure to batters and jump his stuff up a notch or two. What role, then, should he play in the bullpen? The ‘first time’ numbers suggest he could get away with facing a lineup once through while his pitch count numbers suggest he’s better off in a short outing of just one inning. The former is likely more valuable to the team, but the latter is one where he’s more likely to be successful. Either way, Cessa should start out in mop up, low leverage situations as he attempts to adjust his repertoire to a new role. If he can nail things down on an inning-by-inning basis, maybe he could be put into a multi-inning role.

Luis Cessa hasn’t quite reached the end of the line with the Yankees, but being out of options and only marginally and infrequently successful means that end is coming up quick. 2019 will be the year that makes or breaks Cessa’s career and from the bullpen is where he’ll have to do it.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

December 17, 2018 by Mike

Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	J.A. Happ	Dellin Betances
	2B G. Torres/OPEN	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	Aroldis Chapman
	SS G. Torres/OPEN	RF Aaron Judge	CC Sabathia	Chad Green
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Luis Severino	Jonathan Holder
			Masahiro Tanaka	OPEN
BENCH	DISABLED LIST			OPEN
Austin Romine	Didi Gregorius	LIMBO		OPEN
OPEN	Ben Heller	Jacoby Ellsbury		OPEN
OPEN	Jordan Montgomery	Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Voit	LF Gardner	Happ	CL Chapman
	2B Torres/Wade	CF Hicks	Paxton	SU Betances
	SS Torres/Wade	RF Judge	Sabathia	SU Green
	3B Andujar	OF Stanton	Severino	MR Holder
BENCH			Tanaka	MR Kahnle
C Romine	DISABLED LIST			MR Tarpley
IF Alberto	Ellsbury	Heller		LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro	Gregorius	Montgomery		LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

The Up & Down Depth Arms [2018 Season Review]

November 21, 2018 by Mike

Here’s where the game of baseball is these days: The Yankees used 26 different pitchers this year, the eighth most in franchise history. That is also the fifth fewest pitchers used by any team this season. The Blue Jays led the way with 36 different pitchers in 2018. The Rockies used only 21 different pitchers, the fewest in baseball, if you can believe that. Wild.

Two of those 26 pitchers to wear pinstripes in 2018 were shuttle veteran Luis Cessa and newcomer Jonathan Loaisiga. Both went up-and-down this year — Cessa moreso than Loaisiga — but they held different roles. Cessa was the quintessential spot starter. Call him up, start him, send him down. Loaisiga had a somewhat extended run in the rotation. They finished with similar numbers (5.24 ERA/3.74 FIP vs. 5.11 ERA/3.53 FIP). Let’s review their seasons.

Luis Cessa

Cessa’s third year as an up-and-down depth arm featured eight (!) separate call-ups — four times he was called up to make a spot start or long relief appearance and sent down the next day — and 44.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) spread across five starts and eleven relief appearances. He also missed two months with an oblique injury and threw 26.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.38 FIP) with Triple-A Scranton. Typical Luis Cessa stuff, basically.

The Good: Cessa started the season with two 1-2-3 inning short relief appearances, during which he struck out three of six batters faced. He also strung together back-to-back good starts against the Orioles (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and Rays (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) in July.

Also, Cessa had a nice little run as a multi-inning mop-up guy late in the season. He even recorded his first career save when he threw the final three innings of a blowout win over the O’s on August 25th. From August 25th through September 29th, Cessa made six appearances and threw three innings in five of them, and posted a 3.18 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Opponents hit .250/.271/.382 against him. That’ll work.

The Bad: Pretty much everything else. The Red Sox hung five runs on Cessa in 3.2 innings on August 2nd. Next time out the Rays punished him for five runs in 3.1 innings. And, on the final day of the regular season, Cessa allowed four runs in one-third of an inning and left the game with a hip injury after he stumbled covering first base. Fourteen of the 27 runs he allowed this year came in those three games. That’s 52% of his runs in 16% of his innings.

The Future: This past season was Cessa’s final minor league option year, which means he has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A going forward. This is not a good place to be, out of options and unestablished at the MLB level. I like Cessa more than most and I wish the Yankees would just stick him in short relief. The velocity is good and his slider has a comfortably above-average swing-and-miss rate. Stick him in the bullpen and see what happens when he airs it out for an inning at a time, you know?

Cessa will turn 27 in April and he did keep his 40-man roster spot through yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, but that is hardly a guarantee he will make it through the offseason. The Yankees could cast him aside to clear 40-man space in the coming weeks. For now, Cessa remains in the organization, and since he’s out of options, he’ll get a chance to win the proverbial last guy in the bullpen spot come Spring Training until further notice.

Jonathan Loaisiga

What a rise for Johnny Lasagna. At this time last year he was intriguing lower level arm who’d just returned from Tommy John surgery and had thrown 103.2 innings in his career, only 2.1 of which were above the short season leagues. Loaisiga was mentioned as a sleeper and the Yankees liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster despite the injuries and inexperience. After four dominant starts with High-A Tampa (1.35 ERA and 1.18 FIP) and six okay starts with Double-A Trenton (4.32 ERA and 3.33 FIP) this year, he was in the big leagues. Crazy.

The Yankees were of course extremely careful with Loaisiga while in the minors. He has a long injury history and hadn’t thrown many innings in his career, so he made almost every minor league start with six days rest this year. Loaisiga was a once a week starter, basically. Also, in his ten minor league starts before being called up, he never threw more than five innings or 89 pitches. The Yankees treated him with kid gloves. That didn’t stop them from calling him up.

“He’s really talented, we think he has a very bright future. His stuff is really good. He’s a guy that pounds the strike zone,” said Aaron Boone. “Just getting to know him a little bit this spring, we don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed pitching here at Yankee Stadium in the big leagues. We feel like his repertoire, his stuff will allow him to have a chance to be successful for us.”

A promising four-start cameo — Loaisiga replaced Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation after Tanaka pulled both hamstrings running the bases — and a pretty crummy September bullpen stint gave Loaisiga a 5.11 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33 strikeouts and 12 walks in 24.2 big league innings this year. It was a 3.00 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 18 innings as a starter and a 10.80 ERA (5.26 FIP) in 6.2 innings as a reliever.

The Good: In his big league debut Loaisiga struck out six in five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15th. He looked poised and his fastball topped out at 97.7 mph, which was pleasantly surprising. Loaisiga’s best start was his third start. He tossed five no-hit innings in Philadelphia before giving up a sixth inning leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. His night ended with that one hit allowed in 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.

In September, Loaisiga struck out four in two scoreless innings in Oakland on September 3rd. I was hoping he’d emerge as a multi-inning relief weapon in those final few weeks of the regular season — a higher end version of Adam Warren, basically — but it didn’t happen. Two very good starts and one nice two-inning relief appearances were the highlights of Loaisiga’s big league debut.

In terms of stuff, man did the kid show the goods. Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 95.9 mph. His breaking ball averaged 84.6 mph. His changeup averaged 88.2 mph. Everything he throws is hard. Also, Loaisiga’s average spin rates are quite good:

Fastball: 2,341 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)
Breaking ball: 2,648 rpm (MLB average: 2,434 rpm)
Changeup: 1,720 rpm (MLB average: 1,774 rpm)

The higher the spin, the better on fastballs and breaking balls. For changeups, lower spin is better. (Low spin is okay on fastballs too. You don’t want average spin on heaters though. High or low, nothing in between.) Loaisiga showed three legitimate Major League pitches in his brief time with the Yankees and he got swings and misses with everything. The kid also seemed very composed on the mound. Innings rarely spiraled out of control.

The Bad: In two of his big league starts, Loaisiga needed 84 pitches to allow three runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners and 92 pitches to allow three runs in four innings against the Braves. Also, he got hit pretty hard in September. I’m talking eleven runs (eight earned) in four appearances and 4.2 innings after those two innings in Oakland. That included a six-run, 1.1-inning disaster against the Twins on September 11th. Ouch.

To me, Loaisiga’s struggles looked more like a young and inexperienced pitcher learning the ropes than anything. I didn’t see a flaw in his stuff. He executed some good fastballs and breaking balls off the plate, pitches hitters probably chase in the minors, and big leaguers didn’t bite. Considering his relative lack of minor league experience, it is not at all surprising Loaisiga was inefficient and a little lost at times. He’ll get better with time.

The Future: Loaisiga turned 24 earlier this month and he made it clear this season he has big league potential. The stuff is there and the composure was there. He’s a little green, which is to be expected. I definitely think Loaisiga has the stuff and command to start long-term. I just have no idea whether he’ll stay healthy. The injury history is ugly. Shoulder and elbow problems. He even missed time with shoulder fatigue after being sent back down this summer.

The range of potential outcomes for 2019 Loaisiga seem awfully large. I wouldn’t be surprised if he blows out his arm and misses the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 150-ish innings with a mid-3.00s ERA. The talent is there, unquestionably. Can he still healthy? Does all the missed time earlier in his career hold him back? Loaisiga has never pitched in Triple-A. Not one single pitch. I imagine he’ll spend most of next season there.

To me, Loaisiga seems like an excellent candidate for an opener. By that I mean a reliever starts the game, faces the top of the lineup, then turns it over to Loaisiga for four or five innings. That might be the best way to use him next year. Then, once he gets a little more comfortable and gains a little more experience, the Yankees will hopefully be able to turn him loose as a full-fledged starter. The little bit we saw this year was promising though. It was a remarkable rise from relative unknown to big leaguer for Johnny Lasagna in 2018.

Another attempt at a bad contract for bad contract trade with Jacoby Ellsbury

October 30, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is now underway, and over the next several months the Yankees will look to improve their big league roster while sticking to some sort of budget. Every team has a budget. Some teams have bigger budgets than others, but every team has a budget. This past season the Yankees’ budget was the $197M luxury tax threshold, and they stuck to it. They stayed under the threshold.

The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year and the early indications are Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to exceed the threshold. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said Brian Cashman recently, referring to the fact a portion of the money paid into luxury tax is distributed to other teams.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal to get approval to exceed the threshold, and I sure hope that is the case, because there are some great free agents out there this winter. Either way, that $206M number is an obstacle of some sorts, and my estimate says the Yankees have $49.7M to spend underneath the threshold. That’s a lot! Not enough for a truly massive free agent spending spree, but it is a lot.

As the Yankees move through the winter they will have to navigate around Jacoby Ellsbury’s albatross contract. There are still two years and roughly $47M remaining on that deal, and Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season with injuries. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough for Opening Day. This is also a guy who hit .261/.331/.372 (91 wRC+) in his last 1,500 plate appearances. Now he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. Yuck.

Trading Ellsbury for value is pretty much a pipe dream at this point. The best case scenario is trading him and saving some money, and, even then, the Yankees will have to kick in a sweeter. Remember the Chase Headley trade? The Yankees attached Bryan Mitchell to Headley and saved $13M (!) against the luxury tax this year. Doing something similar with Ellsbury feels like it would take a minor miracle, at least something that leads to that much savings.

Rather than shoot for the moon, I think I’ve found a smaller bad contract for bad contract swap that could work for both teams. The details:

Yankees get: Wei-Yin Chen
Marlins get: Jacoby Ellsbury and an out of options arm

No, it is not the most exciting trade in the world, but it doesn’t have to be exciting to be worthwhile. Long story short, the Yankees and Marlins would move some money around, which would improve the luxury tax situation in the Bronx and send a younger pitcher to Miami. Let’s break this down.

1. How does the math work? The Yankees and Marlins are concerned about very different numbers. The Yankees are worried more about the luxury tax hit than the actual salary. They care about the actual salary too, don’t get me wrong, but the luxury tax has been driving all their decisions recently. The Marlins, meanwhile, are focused on actual salary. They’re not close to the luxury tax threshold. Luxury tax hits mean nothing to them.

Both Ellsbury and Chen have two years remaining on their contracts. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47M while Chen is owed $42M. Here’s the full breakdown:

	Chen	Ellsbury
2019 Salary	$20M	$21.14M
2020 Salary	$22M	$21.14M
Option Buyout	N/A	$5M
Total Remaining	$42M	$47.28M
Contract	5 yrs, $80M	7 yrs, $153M
Contract AAV	$16M	$21.86M

A straight up trade would save the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and again in 2020 ($21.86M minus $16M). They wouldn’t save $13M like the Headley trade, but it’s something, and something is better than nothing. Ellsbury hasn’t played since last year and he’s just sitting on the roster, soaking up luxury tax payroll space. This at least clears some of that space.

Of course, a straight one-for-one trade means the Marlins would absorb $5.28M in real salary spread across 2019-20 ($47.28M minus $42M). Would they do that? Not out of the kindness of their hearts. That’s where the out of options arm comes in.

2. Why would the Marlins do this? The Marlins have two options. One, they could keep Chen and pay him that $42M the next two years. Chen is 33 years old, he has a 4.75 ERA (4.38 FIP) over the last three seasons, and he’s missed a bunch of time with lingering elbow trouble. He has no long-term value to a rebuilding team like Miami. He’s an innings guy they hope will stay healthy and pitch well enough to create some trade value, which is unlikely. That rarely happens.

Or two, they could make the trade outlined above and essentially buy a young pitcher. The Yankees have three out of options pitchers, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors next season without going through waivers: Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, and Domingo German. (Tommy Kahnle is out of options too, but I don’t think he’d interest the Marlins.) I’d rank those three pitchers German, Cessa, Cole in that order. Remember that $5.28M the Marlins would have to eat in the trade? How’s this work:

Marlins eat all $5.28M and get German.
Marlins eat half the $5.28M and get Cessa.
Marlins eat none of the $5.28M and get Cole.

The more money Miami eats, the better the pitcher they get in return. (Who the Marlins consider the best pitcher may not be who I consider the best pitcher, obviously.) If they eat the $5.28M difference in salary, they get a the best young pitcher in German and the Yankees get Chen with a $16M luxury tax hit. If the Yankees have to eat the entire $5.28M, the Marlins get the worst out of options arm in Cole and the Yankees get Chen with an $18.64M luxury tax hit — that’s the $5.28M cut in half and added to the $16M in 2019 and 2020 — which is still $3.22M in luxury tax savings in 2019 and 2020.

So it boils down to this: The Marlins can either keep Chen, who has no value to them, or make the trade and get a young enough arm who might help long-term. They’re buying a young arm, basically. Keep in mind Marlins executive Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17. He presumably has some insight into German and Cessa, which could help push things along. The $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Marlins have to pay it to someone no matter that. They can either pay it to Ellsbury and get a younger pitcher in the process, or pay it to Chen.

3. Why would the Yankees do this? For the luxury tax savings, obviously. The worst case scenario here is eating the $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in Cole, who is probably not going to stick on the roster all offseason anyway, and saving $3.22M against the luxury tax payroll. The best case scenario is the shedding the full $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in German, who also might not stick on the roster all offseason, and saving $5.86M against the luxury tax. Worthwhile either way.

What do the Yankees do with Chen? Beats me. They could simply release him. I’d recommend taking Chen into Spring Training and seeing whether he can help in some capacity, even as a mop-up guy, then making a decision at the end of camp. Again, the $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay it no matter what, and, right now, they’re paying it to Ellsbury to do nothing. Maybe they can instead pay it to Chen to soak up low-leverage innings. The primary objective here is the luxury tax savings. Anything Chen gives them is a bonus.

4. Why would Ellsbury agree to this? Ellsbury’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. Even if it didn’t, he’s been with the Yankees long enough now to pick up five-and-ten rights, which is kinda crazy. Why would Ellsbury go to the Marlins? There is only one good reason: Because they’ll release him. That’s the condition of the trade. The Marlins have to release Ellsbury immediately after the deal.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it is not unprecedented. Remember the big Dodgers-Braves salary shuffle deal that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles last offseason? Adrian Gonzalez was in that trade and Atlanta had to release him as the condition to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Gonzalez got to keep every penny in his contract and pick his next team, who he could sign with at the pro-rated minimum. Once the Marlins release Ellsbury, he’d still get every penny, he’d get to pick his next team, and it wouldn’t cost anyone anything substantial to sign him. For Ellsbury, that would presumably be preferable to sticking with the Yankees, who don’t seem to have a place for him.

* * *

Over the next two years the Marlins owe Chen $42M and the Yankees owe Ellsbury $47.28M. There’s no getting out of that money. So, to make the best of a bad situation, the two teams could swap those contracts and figure out what to do with the $5.28M difference. Shouldn’t be hard. The Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit and the Marlins would add a pitcher in his mid-20s with a chance to help long-term. And if he doesn’t, so be it. But at least they get to try.

A win-win? Well, I wouldn’t go that far. This is more like two teams making the best of a bad situation. They’re both stuck paying an unproductive veteran $40-something-million in real dollars the next two years. The Yankees and Marlins can either stick with their current situation, or work with each other to make things a little more palatable. To me, it seems better than staying with the status quo.