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Five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees season

March 21, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

One week and one day until the Yankees open the 2018 regular season in Toronto. Is it just me, or has Spring Training flown by this year? I feel like it’s gone much quicker than previous years. Maybe that’s because Spring Training was longer than usual last year due to the World Baseball Classic. Whatever. Opening Day is rapidly approaching and I can’t wait.

With the start of the regular season on the horizon, this is as good a time as any to lay down some bold 2018 Yankees predictions. Last year I came up with ten bold predictions and learned two things. One, ten is too many. And two, I didn’t go bold enough. I went 7-for-10 last year. As much as I’d like to say I’m just that smart, going 7-for-10 tells me my bold predictions weren’t really that bold.

So this year, I’m shortening up to five predictions that I hope qualify as actually, you know, bold. Or at least bolder than last season. Anyway, here are my five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees season, in no particular order.

1. Hicks will lead the Yankees in WAR.

This could be a good thing or a bad thing! I try to be an optimist and hey, Spring Training is the time of year for unbridled optimism, so I see this as a good thing. I’m all in on Hicksie. I think last year’s first half Hicks, the guy who hit .290/.398/.515 (144 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (15.3%) as strikeouts (17.4%) before his oblique betrayed him in the second half, is the real Hicks going forward.

A few reasons I’m buying the new Hicks. One, this didn’t come out of nowhere. He’s a former first round pick and highly regarded prospect — Baseball America ranked him as the 19th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2010 season — so the talent has always been there. Two, Hicks has been making more and more hard contact with each passing season. His yearly hard contact rates:

2014: 24.1%
2015: 25.3%
2016: 28.9%
2017: 30.8%

Three, Hicks has always controlled the strike zone. Going into last season he had a 9.6% walk rate and a tiny 22.4% chase rate in his career. He didn’t swing-and-miss much either (8.9%). That overall .372 OBP last season wasn’t an accident. Four, he switch-hits! Never being at the platoon disadvantage is kind of a big deal. And five, Hicks is right smack in the middle of what should be the prime of his career. He turned 28 in October, and if there was ever a year to have a career year, this is it.

With good health this season, I think Hicks is a .280/.400/.500 guy with 20+ homers, 20+ steals, and very good center field defense. That last part is important. Hicks isn’t going to out-WAR guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez on offense alone. It’ll be the superb defense at an up-the-middle position that puts him over the top and into the +7 WAR range this season.

2. The Yankees will be the first team ever with four 40+ home runs hitters.

The four: Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and Ronald Torreyes. Okay fine, Greg Bird instead of Torreyes. Only three teams in history have had as many as three 40-homer guys.

1973 Braves: Davey Johnson (43), Darrell Evans (41), Hank Aaron (40)
1996 Rockies: Andres Galarraga (47), Vinny Castilla (40), Ellis Burks (40)
1997 Rockies: Larry Walker (49), Galarraga (41), Castilla (40)

Competing with pre-humidor Coors Field won’t be easy, but the 2018 Yankees and Yankee Stadium are up to the task. Judge and Stanton are obvious 40-homer power guys and I think Sanchez gets there this year as well, especially if the Yankees do indeed cut back on his catching workload slightly to give him more DH days. Gary hit 33 homers in 122 games last season. Reaching 40 with good health is doable.

The fourth 40-homer guy is the sticking point. We all love Greg Bird. He’s awesome. But he has not been the most durable player in his career to date. HowEVA, he’s hit 20 homers in 94 regular season games despite playing 19 of those games with a bum ankle early last year. Getting to 40 homers in, say, 150 games is possible because Bird’s swing is so geared for the short porch. Allow me to repeat some numbers:

Career pull rate: 44.8% (MLB average: 39.8%)
Career ground ball rate: 28.4% (MLB average: 44.2%)
Career hard contact rate: 40.6% (MLB average: 31.8%)

A lefty hitter who hits the ball hard in the air and to the pull field is a great it for Yankee Stadium. We’ve seen it already. Bird has peppered the short porch when healthy. This will be the year he finally stays on the field, and that’ll allow him to make 40-homer history with Bird, Sanchez, and Stanton.

3. The Yankees will have four starters each make 30+ starts.

Every spring, like clockwork, we talk about the rotation and all the preexisting health concerns. There’s Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow and CC Sabathia’s knee and the young guys and their workloads limits. We all fret about the breakdown potential, then the Yankees go out and have a pretty good rotation anyway. The rotation was top ten in basically every meaningful category last year, and now the Yankees will have a full season of Sonny Gray.

Starters are throwing fewer innings with each passing season, and not only because they’re being pulled earlier within games. They’re also making fewer starts (by design). Teams are giving their starters more rest whenever possible. The Yankees certainly do that whenever they can. And yet, I have four Yankees starters making 30+ starts in 2018: Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. Why not Luis Severino? Because I think the Yankees will be extra cautious with him after last season’s workload. He might have to settle for 28 or 29 starts.

One team having four pitchers make 30+ starts in a single season doesn’t happen often but it does happen. Recent World Series winners like the 2016 Cubs (Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester), the 2012 Giants (Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito), and the 2011 Cardinals (Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook) all managed to do it. Here are the last three times the Yankees got 30+ starts from four pitchers:

2009: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte
2003: Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, David Wells
1999: Pettitte, Clemens, David Cone, Orlando Hernandez

Notice a pattern here? Very good things tend to happen when teams have four starters stay healthy all season. It doesn’t guarantee success — John Danks, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale, and Jeff Samardzija all made 30+ starts for the 2015 White Sox and they went 72-90 — but if it happens, I’m feeling good about my team’s chances. The 2018 Yankees will join the “four starters with 30+ starts each” club. And they might be the only team to do it this year.

4. Cessa emerges as the next great Yankees reliever.

This worked with Chad Green last year so I might as well try it with the other player in the Justin Wilson trade this year. I have (inexplicably?) been a Luis Cessa fan the last two years — that isn’t to say I think he’s a budding ace or anything, but I think he’s a long-term big leaguer — though he has probably reached the point where sticking with the Yankees as a starter isn’t going to happen. Spot starter? Sure. Full-time starter? Nah.

Green started last season as the de facto sixth starter before moving to the bullpen out of necessity, and he took off from there. I can see the same thing happening with Cessa, even while acknowledging this year’s bullpen is way better and way deeper than last year’s first half bullpen. Extra arms are always needed. Guys get hurt or underperform. That’s baseball. At some point the Yankees will need a long man and Cessa figures to get the call.

There are three reasons I believe Cessa can succeed as a short reliever. One, he has plenty of velocity. Last season he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph with the fastball, even as a starter. Two, his slider misses plenty of bats. It’s true. Last year he threw his slider a touch more than 30% of the time and:

Swing-and-miss rate: 21.4% (MLB average for sliders: 16.9%)
Whiffs-per-swing rate: 43.2% (MLB average for sliders: 35.2%)

Cessa also throws a curveball and a changeup, but with a move into short relief, he can forget about those pitches and work exclusively with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. That’s similar to what Green did, right? He moved to the bullpen, shelved his subpar secondary pitches, and leaned on his best offering, which happens to be his fastball. Cessa with something like a 55/45 fastball/slider split could be real good.

And three, Cessa’s splits once the lineup turns over are insane. Here are his career numbers each time through the order:

First Time: .212/.279/.385
Second Time: .284/.340/.534
Third Time: .280/.333/.600

Yeah. Cessa is also way more effective from pitches 1-25 (.221/.288/.430) than pitches 26+ (.260/.319/.486). This is Cessa’s final minor league option year, so if he doesn’t carve out a role this season, he’s probably a goner a la Bryan Mitchell. Forget the rotation. Scrap the changeup and curveball, and use him in short relief. It worked with Green last year. It could work with Cessa this year. The opportunity to use him this way will present itself at some point. I have no doubt about it.

5. Medina finishes the season as a top 50 prospect.

Luis Medina is a rising star in the farm system. The Yankees signed the 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic for $280,000 back in July 2015, and he’s already generating lots of buzz. Medina received votes for Baseball America’s annual top 100 prospects list, and, in a separate piece, they say he has “an excellent chance to find himself in next year’s Top 100 Prospects.” Keith Law called Medina the “next great starter prospect in what looks like a line of them from the majors on down.”

The scouting report on Medina is drool worthy. Here’s what MLB.com says:

Medina isn’t physically imposing but has an exceptionally quick arm that repeatedly delivers 95-100 mph fastballs that top out at 102 and feature some cutting action. Both of his secondary pitches have a chance to be at least plus pitches as well. He has a power curveball with a high spin rate and a 90-92 mph changeup with splitter action that can devastate hitters, especially if they’re trying to sit on his heater.

The scouting report also says Medina has a “lofty ceiling as a frontline starter.” As with many 18-year-old hurlers, Medina’s biggest weakness is his command and control. He walked 24 in 38.2 rookie ball innings last season, or 14.0% of batters faced. Also, Medina managed to uncork 18 (!) wild pitches. So yeah, throwing the ball over the plate is the top developmental priority this season. Here’s some video:

The various scouting publications are already talking about Medina as a potential top 100 prospect next year. I think he’s going to figure out how to throw strikes this year — look at his delivery in the video above and look at his delivery when the Yankees signed him in 2015, his tempo is better and he seems way more under control now — and if he does that, he’ll be a top 50 prospect given his stuff.

I should note it would not be unprecedented for an 18-year-old pitching prospect to rank among the 50 best prospects in baseball. Anderson Espinoza was a consensus top 25 prospect at 18 two years ago. Julio Urias was a top 50 prospect four years ago, when he was only 17. Back in the day Felix Hernandez was a top prospect as a teenager. That isn’t to say Medina will be Felix. That’d be nuts. The point is a kid like a Medina, an 18-year-old with a golden arm, can be considered one of the top 50 prospects in baseball, and I’m going to boldly predict he makes that jump this year.

Projecting the Yankees’ 2018 Opening Day roster

March 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Two weeks from today the Yankees will open the 2018 regular season at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays. Spring Training has gone well so far. The injuries have been kept to a minimum, and the Yankees addressed their two biggest roster questions (second and third bases) with a trade (Brandon Drury) and a free agent signing (Neil Walker). Knock on wood, it has been a good camp so far.

As things stand, the Opening Day roster is mostly set. Jacoby Ellsbury’s oblique injury and Clint Frazier’s concussion complicate the bench a bit, otherwise I count 22 of 25 roster spots already claimed. I suppose another surprise signing could go down at any moment, and of course injuries can change things, but right now, this is the Opening Day roster:

CATCHER	INFIELDERS	OUTFIELDERS	STARTERS	RELIEVERS
Sanchez	1B Bird	Gardner	Gray	CL Chapman
	2B Walker	Hicks	Montgomery	Betances
	SS Gregorius	Judge	Sabathia	Green
	3B Drury	Stanton	Severino	Kahnle
			Tanaka	Robertson
BENCH		DISABLED LIST		Warren
C Romine	???	Ellsbury		???
IF Torreyes	???	Frazier

Ellsbury has started some light baseball activities, though time is running out and he’s probably not going to be ready for Opening Day. “We’re probably getting into that range where we’re butting up against it,” said Aaron Boone to Bryan Hoch earlier this week. As for Frazier, he’s still experiencing symptoms and things are moving slow. He’s not going to be ready for Opening Day. No way, no how.

So, with Ellsbury and Frazier sidelined, the Yankees have three open Opening Day roster spots. One reliever and two bench players seems likely, though two relievers and one bench player is possible as well. Eight-man bullpens are increasingly becoming a the norm these days. Let’s talk about those last few unoccupied Opening Day roster spots.

1. Shreve is likely making the bullpen. Yeah, one bullpen spot is open, but it’s really not. Chasen Shreve has been on the veteran reliever “brought along slowly” plan this spring, not the roster hopeful “you’re going to pitch a lot and you need to impress to make the team” plan. Shreve is out of minor league options and there’s almost no chance he slips through waivers unclaimed. As the seventh guy in the bullpen, Shreve is fine. He misses bats, he doesn’t have a platoon split, and he can go two innings at a time if necessary. Shreve’s going to be on the roster. Get ready for it.

2. Who’s the backup outfielder? Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all figure to be in the starting lineup most days between the three outfield spots and DH. That means the Yankees need an outfielder on the bench. Gardner can back up center field, so the reserve outfielder needn’t be center field capable. Would be nice though. The outfield candidates still in big league camp:

Tyler Austin
Estevan Florial
Billy McKinney
Jace Peterson
Shane Robinson
Tyler Wade

Florial isn’t making the Opening Day roster. He’s going back to the minors, probably High-A but maybe Double-A. Austin is an emergency outfielder more than someone you want to play in the outfield intentionally. He’s a pretty bad defender in the corners. I’d rule him out as a backup outfielder option. Austin could still make the Opening Day roster! But not as the reserve outfielder.

That leaves McKinney, Peterson, Robinson, and Wade. Both McKinney and Wade have impressed this spring. Peterson and Robinson not so much. McKinney is a natural corner outfielder who can fill in at first base, though his experience is limited at the position. Wade is a natural infielder who the Yankees started to expose to the outfield two years ago. He started a handful of games in left and right fields during his big league cameo last year.

I see two reasons to believe McKinney will be the bench outfielder on Opening Day. One, he is on the 40-man roster. That is not insignificant. Peterson and Robinson are not on the 40-man roster and adding them means cutting someone, likely a young player given the state of the 40-man. I don’t think the Yankees want to do that. I suppose Frazier could be a 60-day DL candidate, so maybe the Yankees can open a 40-man spot that way, though it’s too early to say.

And two, Wade hasn’t played the outfield at all this spring! That’s kind of a big deal. Wade is on the 40-man, so he has that going for him, but he has limited outfield experience as it is and the Yankees haven’t played him out there at all during Grapefruit League play. I suppose they could put him through an outfield crash course before Opening Day, but that seems un-Yankee-like. All that points to McKinney and his Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed bat making the Opening Day roster. Fun!

3. So what happens with the final open roster spot? Reliever or bench player, bench player or reliever. You can make a case for both. You really can. The April schedule is not as pitching staff friendly as it has been in previous years. The Yankees can’t skip their fifth starter at all in April. Not once, unless they get rained out or something. Because of that, carrying an eighth reliever as the pitchers ease into things might not be a bad idea.

At the same time, eight relievers almost always feels like overkill. Domingo German sat in the bullpen for long stretches of time as the eighth reliever last season. He was on the MLB roster from June 15th to July 16th and he pitched four times. Four times in a month! Maybe things will be different in April because it’s early in the season and every team tries to make sure their pitchers don’t do too much, too soon. Here are the possible eighth reliever candidates in camp:

Luis Cessa
Gio Gallegos
Domingo German
David Hale
Ben Heller
Jonathan Holder
Brady Lail
Wade LeBlanc

Can’t see Hale, Lail, or LeBlanc making it. They’re Triple-A depth arms and it is too early in the year to dip that far down the depth chart. None of them are on the 40-man roster and I don’t think the Yankees want to cut someone to carry an eighth reliever this early in the season. Not when Cessa, Gallegos, German, Heller, and Holder are all on the 40-man and likely to outpitch Hale, Lail, and LeBlanc anyway.

My personal preference would be German or Heller as the eighth reliever, if the Yankees decide to go that route. I am also curious to see what Cessa could do as a full-time reliever. That all said, I expect the Yankees to carry a fourth bench player come Opening Day, not an eighth reliever. They could always adjust on the fly if another reliever is needed early in the season. Here are the remaining bench player candidates:

Miguel Andujar
Tyler Austin
Estevan Florial
Kyle Higashioka
Jace Peterson
Shane Robinson
Tyler Wade

We ruled out Florial, Peterson, and Robinson earlier. There’s no need for a third catcher either, so sorry Higgy. The Yankees wouldn’t use Andujar as a bench player. He’ll go to Triple-A Scranton and play everyday. Realistically, the final bench spot comes down to Austin and Wade now that Adam Lind has been released. Wade has had the better spring and he’s more versatile, plus he’s fast. Austin would be a right-handed power bench bat and a natural platoon partner for Greg Bird.

The Walker signing means the Yankees don’t absolutely need a backup first baseman on the bench. Walker can back up Bird and hey, so can McKinney. Wade is the more functional piece. He can play the infield, play the outfield, and run like hell. Dingers are cool, but the Yankees have enough right-handed hitters who hit dingers. Aside from back up first base, Austin doesn’t do much. Wade can do more things. Plus the Yankees seem to love him. That can’t hurt. I think Wade makes the bench over Austin.

* * *

Alright, so after all that, this is the projected Opening Day roster at the moment:

CATCHER	INFIELDERS	OUTFIELDERS	STARTERS	RELIEVERS
Sanchez	1B Bird	Gardner	Gray	CL Chapman
	2B Walker	Hicks	Montgomery	Betances
	SS Gregorius	Judge	Sabathia	Green
	3B Drury	Stanton	Severino	Kahnle
			Tanaka	Robertson
BENCH		DISABLED LIST		Shreve
C Romine	OF McKinney	Ellsbury		Warren
IF Torreyes	UTIL Wade	Frazier

If Ellsbury does indeed begin the season on the disabled list, Gardner and Walker would be the only position players on the Opening Day roster over 30. (Austin Romine would be the only other position player over 28.) If Ellsbury manages to get healthy, I think McKinney would go back to Triple-A, not Wade. No need for two lefty hitting outfielders on the bench. Maybe in the NL, but not the AL. Even after the Drury and Walker pick-ups, it really seems like the Yankees want Wade on the roster. And hey, why wouldn’t they? He’s pretty rad.

There are still two weeks to go before Opening Day and that is an eternity in baseball. Lots can change between now and then. For the most part though, the Yankees’ Opening Day roster seems set aside from the final three spots. Shreve is a pretty safe bet to get that final bullpen spot. The Yankees have been talking up Wade all spring, and his versatility and speed could make him quite valuable, so I think he’s making it too. McKinney feels like a classic “sneak onto the Opening Day roster thanks to an injury” player. Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next two weeks, because that projected Opening Day roster is awfully exciting.

Yankees sign Gary Sanchez, 14 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2018

March 10, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

With Spring Training well underway and Opening Day inching closer and closer, the Yankees have started signing their pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for the 2018 season.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights, so clubs are essentially free to pay them whatever they want. Teams usually negotiate a salary with the player to maintain a good relationship, however. Here are the Yankees’ known 2018 pre-arb deals, according to the Associated Press and Ken Davidoff:

	Service Time (years.days)	MLB salary	MiLB salary
Brandon Drury	2.034	$621,900	?
Ronald Torreyes	2.022	$615,500	$280,950
Gary Sanchez	1.086	$620,400	$278,950
Chad Green	1.050	$570,800	$229,005
Luis Cessa	1.013	$568,925	$171,615
Ben Heller	0.096	$547,475	$96,395
Clint Frazier	0.093	$559,200	$135,943
Tyler Wade	0.081	$551,300	$122,214
Domingo German	0.071	$548,225	$88,900
Gio Gallegos	0.062	$549,575	$144,811
Miguel Andujar	0.020	$545,800	$88,900
Jake Cave	0.000	$545,000	$88,900
Gleyber Torres	0.000	$545,000	$44,500
Thairo Estrada	0.000	$545,000	$44,500
Jonathan Loaisiga	0.000	$545,000	$44,500

All pre-arb players sign split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another salary in the minors. And just to be clear, these 15 players will not become free agents after the season just because they signed a one-year contract. They remain under team control until they have six full years of service time. These players now have a contract in place for 2018. They’ll do this all again next year.

Like most teams, the Yankees are said to have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards finishes, things like that. Also, these contracts are not guaranteed, so the Yankees could release any of these guys before Opening Day and only have to pay them either 30 days or 45 days of termination pay, depending on the timing of the release. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone. I’m just saying.

The Yankees still have ten unsigned pre-arb players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Tyler Austin, Greg Bird, Kyle Higashioka, Jonathan Holder, Aaron Judge, Billy McKinney, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino. I imagine Abreu, Acevedo, and McKinney will get the same $545,000/$44,500 deal as Torres, Estrada, and Loaisiga since they all have zero MLB experience and no more than one year of Triple-A time. Austin, Higashioka, and Holder will probably fall somewhere in the Cessa-Gallegos-Cave range as guys with big league service time and multiple years at Triple-A.

Bird, Judge, Montgomery, and Severino are the major remaining pre-arb cases. Montgomery has less than one year of service time, so I think he falls in the $565,000 range. Somewhere just south of Green and Cessa. Remember, these salaries are based more on service time than performance. Bird has more than two years of service time (2.053 to be exact) but he’s missed so much time with injury that he’s only played 94 big league games. I wonder if the injuries will prevent him from cracking $600,000. Otherwise Drury/Torreyes money seems likely.

Judge is a special case given everything he’s accomplished so far in his young career. Home Run Derby champ, leading fan vote-getter for the All-Star Game, unanimous Rookie of the Year, MVP runner-up, AL home run champ … the usual sliding salary scale doesn’t really apply to him. Here are the largest pre-arb salaries in history:

2017 Kris Bryant (1.171): $1.05M (Rookie of the Year and MVP)
2018 Carlos Correa (2.119): $1M (Rookie of the Year)
2014 Mike Trout (2.070): $1M (Rookie of the Year and two MVP runner-ups)
2017 Mookie Betts (2.070): $950,000 (MVP runner-up)

On one hand, Judge has a Rookie of the Year and an MVP runner-up, which suggests his salary should fall somewhere between Betts and Trout. On the other hand, Judge only has a bit more than one year of service time (1.050), whereas Betts and Trout were both over two years. My guess — and this is just a guess — is Judge will come in somewhere around $750,000. Lots more than the typical pre-arb player but a notch below Trout and Betts given the one fewer year of service time.

Severino finished third in the Cy Young voting last season and that will undoubtedly earn him a nice little raise this offseason. Kyle Hendricks is a potential salary comp. He finished third in the 2016 Cy Young voting and earned $760,500 with 2.081 service time in 2018. Severino is at 1.170 service time right now. Another potential comp: Jose Fernandez. He finished third in the 2013 Cy Young voting and got $635,000 with exactly one year of service time in 2014. That was back when the minimum salary was $500,000. This season the minimum is $545,000.

Because he doesn’t yet have two full years of service time — Severino is at 1.170, two days short of two years, so the Yankees narrowly managed to push back his free agency when they sent him down in 2016 — I think Severino falls a bit short of Hendricks money. He might fall in the $650,000 to $700,000 range. Well below his actual worth but pretty darn good relative to other pre-arb players.

It’s worth noting the Yankees can renew the contract of any pre-arb player at any salary, as long as it is not less than 80% of their previous year’s salary. The Yankees could renew Judge at the $545,000 league minimum. They (probably) won’t, but they could. Two years ago the Yankees renewed Dellin Betances at the minimum because they couldn’t agree to a contract. That was notable because it rarely happens. The Yankees have shown they will do it, which increases their leverage during contract talks, but they don’t want it to come to that.

As far as the luxury tax payroll, the pre-arb salaries don’t change much. Based on our estimates the Yankees have approximately $22M to spend under the $197M threshold, though we used the $545,000 minimum for pre-arb players on the 25-man roster. Sanchez, Drury, Torreyes, and Green are the only safe bets among the 15 signed pre-arb guys to spend the entire season on the MLB roster. Their combined 2018 salaries is $2,428,600. Four players at the minimum is $2.18M. So that is $248,600 less available in luxury tax payroll. Not a big dent.

Once the Yankees get their remaining pre-arb players signed, that $22M under the luxury tax threshold will be more like $21M under the threshold. Maybe $20.5M if they really take care of Judge and/or Severino. That’s still a lot of breathing room under the $197M threshold, but these pre-arb players make real dollars, real dollars that can’t be spend elsewhere. The pre-arb players are the key to the luxury tax plan. They’re providing lots of value at little cost.

The Yankees’ five most important Spring Training storylines

February 14, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Spring Training is officially underway. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday, they threw the ball around a little bit, and they’ll do it all again today. And tomorrow. And the next however many days after that. Position players report Sunday, and next Friday actual Spring Training games begin. Can’t wait. Baseball is better than no baseball.

As is the case every year, the Yankees have some storylines worth keeping an eye on this spring. The biggest, obviously, is the infield situation. Second and third base are wide open — they are “fluid,” as new manager Aaron Boone said yesterday — and while we have an idea who will ultimately fill those positions, lots of weird stuff happens in Spring Training. This year will be no different. Here are what I consider the five most important storylines this spring, in no particular order.

How will the Yankees spend that $12M?

Technically, the Yankees have about $22M to spend under the $197M luxury tax threshold, but they’re setting aside $10M for midseason additions. That seems like a lot, but who knows. The Yankees might have to trade for a starting pitcher and two infielders come July. Brian Cashman & Co. would rather have too much set aside than not enough.

Anyway, setting aside $10M still leaves the Yankees with $12M to spend, and I have to think they’re going to spend it. Free agency is the smart bet — there are still sooo many good free agents unsigned — but I suppose they could always take on salary in a trade. Sign an infielder like Neil Walker? Or a depth starter like, say, Jaime Garcia? Or maybe someone better than a depth starter like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn?

I don’t think that $12M is going unspent. The Yankees have needs like every other team and there are still quality free agents on the market, so it’s not like they have nowhere to spend it. In previous years the free agent market would’ve been picked clean by now. Spending $12M would’ve been tough without overpaying someone. That isn’t the case now. That $12M is going somewhere.

How does Gleyber look after his injury?

Gleyber Torres has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, and during an MLB Network appearance yesterday, he said he took live batting practice for the first time Monday. That’s good. Torres seems to be on a typical “get ready for the season” schedule. Tommy John surgery is a major procedure, obviously, but there is less risk with position players, especially when they have it on their non-throwing arms.

I’m looking forward to seeing Gleyber in camp (who isn’t?) and I suspect we won’t even be able to tell he had the surgery. I still want to see him in action though, to see if there’s any rust, to see if he’s apprehensive at all when swinging, things like that. It’s a bit of a weird situation. Torres has a chance to win a big league roster spot and of course he wants to do well this spring. At the same time, you don’t want him overdoing it so soon after elbow surgery, and risking a setback.

Is Betances throwing strikes?

This will be Dellin Betances’ fourth Spring Training as a no-doubt member of the bullpen and the previous three have followed the same script. Betances comes out of the gate sitting closer to 94-95 mph than 98-99 mph, and he doesn’t throw strikes. Then, by the end of camp, the velocity is back and his mechanics are locked in, and he looks like dominant Dellin. No reason to think this year will be different, really.

This year is different, however. Betances was borderline unusable down the stretch last season because he couldn’t throw strikes. He has a history of control problems and late last year was his worst stretch as a big leaguer. Spring Training is Spring Training, these guys go through the motions and focus on getting their work in more than anything, but in Dellin’s case, it would behoove him to come out strong and show he is back to throwing strikes, and that Boone can trust him right away.

“(I) wanted to get to a weight I was comfortable at, where I was two, three years ago. I just feel like I’m trying to start strong and finish strong,” said Betances, who dropped 16 lbs. this offseason, to Erik Boland yesterday. “I felt like last year my delivery was just not there, I just wasn’t consistent with that. I worked on my breaking ball (this winter), throwing it more for strikes. Last year, obviously, I had problems with a lot of walks, so that was a focal point for me.”

Who emerges as the sixth starter?

If the Yankees sign or trade for another starter, the sixth starter might be Jordan Montgomery. For now Montgomery is in the starting five and sixth starter duties will likely fall on Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Chance Adams. The sleeper: Chad Green. A lot of times the sixth starter decision gets made by the schedule — who is lined up to pitch that day? — but those are usually only spot starts. I’m talking about the full-time sixth starter.

In reality, the sixth starter race won’t be decided in Spring Training. Hopefully the Yankees won’t need one for a while, but, if they do, they figure to go with who is pitching the best at the time rather than who pitched the best in March. Cessa could put up a 0.75 ERA during Grapefruit League play, but if it’s mid-June and German is sitting on a 1.90 ERA with 25.0 K-BB% rate in Triple-A, he’s going to get the call. It is possible to jump to the front of the line in camp though, so if a sixth starter is needed early in the season, you can be the guy who gets called up.

How’s Boone handling things?

Spoiler alert: Boone’s first Spring Training as a manager will probably look like the ten Spring Trainings under Joe Girardi. Maybe they’ll do a few more team-bonding things? Otherwise it’ll be business as usual. Spring Training won’t be a good time to get a read on the new skipper. Certainly not in terms of on-field strategy and whatnot. Lineups don’t mean much and no one plays the bullpen matchup game during Grapefruit League play.

I guess the big thing to watch is how Boone handles the inevitable crisis — a player leaves a game with an injury, does Boone clam up like Girardi when asked about it? — and what sort of mood hangs over camp. Should be one of excitement! The Yankees are good, they have a lot of fun young players, and they added Giancarlo Stanton. Should be a blast. If it’s not, that’ll be weird, especially after Boone said his priority is building strong relationships with his players time and time again over the winter.

“I want to be somebody that is known as a smart manager, that makes solid decisions and is prepared,” said Boone yesterday. “But also one that when you walk into our clubhouse, hopefully I’m part of what I believe is a winning culture (and) a culture where guys are at ease, where guys are allowed to be themselves. When you walk into our room, it’s not a stressful place. It’s a place where guys are at work but there’s a joy coming there to do their job. Hopefully I’m part of creating that atmosphere.”

* * *

There is plenty of other stuff to keep an eye on this spring. How do Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton handle left field? Does Chasen Shreve get the final bullpen spot by default, or does someone else take it? Does Greg Bird make it out in one piece? All of that stuff will be settled in time and I don’t think we’re in for any surprises. Hopefully Bird stays healthy. Chances are Judge and Stanton will be fine in left. Shreve probably gets the last bullpen spot, and if he doesn’t, eh who cares.

To me, the most important things this spring are Gleyber’s elbow, Dellin’s control, and Boone’s on-the-job training. I’m interesting to see where that $12M is going, sure, but I’m more interested in Torres, Dellin, and Boone. Those are three pretty important members of the organization and they’re all facing different challenges this spring. The Yankees want all of them to begin 2018 off on the right foot.

Sorting out the projected 2018 Triple-A Scranton roster

February 8, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

These days, moreso than ever before, teams need more than 25 players to get through the 162-game season and contend for a postseason spot. Lots more than 25 players. Last season 1,351 different players appeared in at least one big league game, an average of 45 players per team. The Yankees used 51 players last year, tied for the eighth most in baseball. The Mariners led the way with 61. The Indians and Rockies somehow used only 41 each.

The remainder of the 40-man roster is essentially a taxi squad. Teams shuttle players in and out not only to help cover for injuries or poor performance, but to get matchups too. Facing a team with a lefty heavy lineup? Might as well bring up an extra lefty reliever for the weekend. Need another platoon bat because you’re going to see five right-handed starters the next five days? Call up a lefty with some pop. It happens every single day across the league.

The Yankees have built a very deep farm system and so many of their top prospects are close to the big leagues. My annual top 30 prospects list will be posted tomorrow and I’d say only three of my top ten prospects have no chance to play in the big leagues this season. The Yankees will again use that farm system to supplemental their MLB roster. Injuries happen. Poor performances happen. Sometimes you need to swap guys out, and the Yankees have lots of alternatives waiting.

Clubs use their Triple-A affiliate as an extension of their big league roster nowadays, and because of that, we should take a second to look at the projected Triple-A Scranton roster for the coming season. We’re going to see a lot of these players in Spring Training soon and in the Bronx later this year. Let’s break down the 2018 RailRiders, starting with the position players. Here are the roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Kyle Higashioka*	Miguel Andujar*	Jabari Blash*	Tyler Austin*
Francisco Diaz	Thairo Estrada*	Jake Cave*	Billy McKinney*
Erik Kratz	Gleyber Torres*	Clint Frazier*	Tyler Wade*
	Abi Avelino	Mark Payton	Jace Peterson
	Danny Espinosa	Shane Robinson
	Billy Fleming	Zack Zehner
	Ryan McBroom
	Nick Solak

Twenty-one players total and we need to whittle that list down to 12 or 13 names. Triple-A teams carry 25-man rosters these days — it wasn’t that long ago that Triple-A and Double-A teams had 24-man rosters — and it is not at all uncommon for minor league teams to employ a full-time eight-man bullpen. Especially early in the season when young pitchers are still getting stretched out. Don’t want to overload them. Let’s pare down our list of 21 names.

Catchers: This is the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are entrenched at the big league level. Higashioka, who made his MLB debut when Sanchez got hurt last season, and Kratz, a veteran journeyman who returned to the Yankees on a minor league contract, are the obvious Triple-A catching tandem. I mentioned Diaz only because he is third on the Triple-A catching depth chart. If someone gets hurt or called up, Diaz figures to take that spot on the roster. Higashioka and Kratz are the projected Triple-A catchers. Easy peasy.

Infielders: Okay, now it’s getting complicated. We still don’t know who is going to play second or third base at the big league level. We have an idea based on the available personnel, but we don’t know for sure. Who had Jordan Montgomery winning a rotation spot in camp last season? Not many. An infielder could surprise and win a big league spot in Spring Training. Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Absolutely.

I have eight infielders in the table, though it’s really eleven because Wade and Peterson are natural infielders, and Austin is a first baseman. Wade, Peterson, and Austin can all play the outfield as well. Those eleven players have to cover at least eight roster spots. That is second base, third base, and utility infielder at the MLB level, plus all four starting infield spots and a utility infielder at the Triple-A level. It’s really seven roster spots though, not eight. Ronald Torreyes will be on the MLB roster in some capacity. He’s taking one of those three MLB spots. So we need to fill seven total spots.

My guess right now is, if the season started today, Andujar would start at third in the Bronx and Torres would start the season in Triple-A. He’s coming back from a major injury and he hasn’t played at all since last June. There’s also the whole service time thing. Sending him down for roughly three weeks buys another year of control. The Yankees typically do not obsess over service time, but man, how could you pass up that chance? It’s three weeks! And he’s coming back from a major injury!

I’m putting Andujar on the MLB roster and Torres on the Triple-A roster with the expectation Gleyber will be in the big leagues a few weeks into the season. My hunch is the Yankees signed Peterson and Espinosa as veteran safety nets. Not because they actually want to carry them on the roster. The Yankees are going young wherever possible and, unless all the kids fall flat in Spring Training, I think Peterson and Espinosa wind up going to Scranton. From what I understand both can opt-out of their contracts at the end of Spring Training if they’re not on the MLB roster, but I’d be surprised if that happens in this free agent climate.

Putting Espinosa and Peterson in Triple-A means Wade gets that final MLB infield spot almost by default. Does he start at second or sit on the bench while Torreyes starts? Who knows. Hopefully he starts. But Wade getting that job over Estrada (zero Triple-A games) and Avelino (more of an organizational utility guy at this point) makes sense. Our three big league infield spots are set. Second, third, and the utility spot go to Andujar, Wade, and Torreyes.

There are still two Triple-A roster spots to fill, however. One will go to Thairo. The last spot has to go to a first baseman and as things stand, Austin has a spot on the big league team’s bench. Either that or the Yankees are going to carry an eighth reliever, which is absolutely possible. I’m assuming Austin is on the bench though. In that case, I think McKinney gets the nod at first base over McBroom, who didn’t wow anyone in Double-A last season. The Triple-A outfield is crowded and McKinney at first, a position he began playing in the Arizona Fall League last year, clears up the logjam. Espinosa, Peterson, and Kratz all have some first base experience and are backup options.

Okay, so based on all that, we have filled the three big league infield spots (Andujar, Torreyes, Wade) and the five Triple-A infield spots (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres). Solak played only 30 games with Double-A Trenton last season and going back there to start this season should not surprise anyone. He’ll get another half-season with the Thunder, and if all goes well, expect Solak to get a midseason bump up to Triple-A. Not on Opening Day though.

Outfielders: The outfield is pretty straightforward. The big league roster is loaded with outfielders and that means Blash, Cave, and Frazier have little chance of winning an MLB job based on merit this spring. They’re tentatively scheduled to go to Triple-A and bide their time. McKinney and Peterson can also play the outfield, if necessary. Simple as it gets.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Kratz), five infielders (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres), and three outfielders (Blash, Cave, Frazier). Ten Triple-A position players. We need two more because based on the last few years, the Yankees will go with an eight-man Triple-A bullpen out of the gate. Robinson signed a minor league deal last night and will be in Triple-A, so that’s one of the two remaining spots. I think Fleming gets the final spot because he’s a true organizational utility infielder type. That’s usually the type of player who gets the last bench spot in Triple-A.

Alright, so putting it all together, we’re sending Avelino, Diaz, McBroom, Payton, Solak, and Zehner back to Double-A Trenton to begin the season, leaving us this group of 12 Triple-A position players:

Catchers (2): Higashioka, Kratz
Infielders (4): Espinosa, Estrada, Fleming, Torres
Outfielders (4): Blash, Cave, Frazier, Robinson
Utility (2): McKinney, Peterson

The big league openings at second and third bases complicate things. It could easily be Torres and Espinosa in MLB with Wade and Andujar in Triple-A. I wouldn’t put it past Torres to blow everyone away in Spring Training and get the second base job despite his injury and service time manipulation. We’ll see. Here, for the fun of it, is a possible Triple-A lineup based on my projected roster:

SS Thairo Estrada
2B Gleyber Torres
RF Clint Frazier
1B Billy McKinney
LF Jabari Blash
CF Jake Cave
C Kyle Higashioka
3B Danny Espinosa
DH Jace Peterson

Bench: Kratz, Fleming, Robinson

Don’t get too hung up on positional assignments. Players will rotate around like they always do. Torres and Thairo figure to see time at second, third, and short. Frazier will play both corner outfield spots, as will Blash. Peterson will get time in the outfield. That’s Triple-A baseball. More importantly, that is a crazy stacked lineup by Triple-A standards. Stacked with good prospects and hitters who will pummel Triple-A pitching. Fun summer ahead for the RailRiders. Let’s get to the pitching staff now.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Gio Gallegos*	Caleb Frare
Luis Cessa*	Ben Heller*	Wade LeBlanc
Domingo German*	Jonathan Holder*	James Reeves
Chance Adams	Cody Carroll	Stephen Tarpley
David Hale	Will Carter
Brody Koerner	Cale Coshow
Brady Lail	J.P. Feyereisen
Justus Sheffield

Fortunately, the big league pitching staff is much clearer than the infield. The Yankees have five starters for five rotation spots (Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) and six relievers for seven bullpen spots (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Adam Warren). The out-of-options Chasen Shreve presumably has a leg up on the final bullpen spot as the designated low-leverage “only when losing” reliever.

I have 19 pitchers in the table and we have to cut that list down to 13 for the Triple-A roster. Won’t be too difficult, especially with the big league pitching staff settled already.

Rotation: Let’s start with who I don’t expect to be in the Opening Day Triple-A rotation: Acevedo and Sheffield. Acevedo made only 14 Double-A starts last season (plus two Triple-A spot starts) and Sheffield made only 17 Double-A starts. Had he not strained his oblique and missed close to two months, chances are Sheffield would be ticketed for Triple-A Scranton right now. But he got hurt, missed time, and has to make it up.

I expect both Acevedo and Sheffield to return to Double-A Trenton to begin the season before a midseason (or sooner) promotion to Triple-A Scranton. the Triple-A rotation falls into place then. Adams, Cessa, and German all spent time — a lot of time, at that — with the RailRiders last year and will return. Hale is a veteran journeyman with gobs of Triple-A experience. He was signed to be the Triple-A innings guy, so he’s in the rotation too. Lail, who will again be in Spring Training as a non-roster player, is the obvious candidate for the fifth rotation spot. Acevedo, Koerner, and Sheffield go back to Trenton for the time being.

Bullpen: There are eight bullpen spots and four will go to Heller, Holder, Gallegos, and LeBlanc. Feyereisen spent much more time in Triple-A than Double-A last year, so he’s in too. Coshow has spent parts of three seasons in Double-A now and he got his feet wet in Triple-A late last year, and he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player, so I think he’s a lock for the RailRiders bullpen. Carroll was last year’s big breakout relief prospect, and given the fact he spent most of last season in Double-A and is already 25, I think Triple-A is a good bet for him.

All that leaves Carter, Frare, Reeves, and Tarpley as candidates for the eighth and final Triple-A bullpen spot. None of them have Triple-A experience. Frare has been in the organization the longest (11th round pick in 2012) but Carter has the most Double-A experience (90 innings). I think it comes down to those two. Tarpley has 10.1 career Double-A innings under his belt, all coming last season. Reeves has 14.1 career Double-A innings, all but four of which came last season. A return to Double-A is in the cards for those two.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the eighth Triple-A bullpen spot, so I’m going to answer the “Frare or Carter” question quickly. Frare is younger (by six months) and he’s left-handed, but Carter has performed better in Double-A, not that either has been a world-beater. Let’s go with Frare for the final Triple-A bullpen spot. Why not? This spot will be a revolving door anyway. Here’s our projected Triple-A pitching staff:

Rotation (5): Adams, Cessa, German, Hale, Lail
Relievers (8): Carroll, Coshow, Feyereisen, Frare, Gallegos, Heller, Holder, LeBlanc

I wouldn’t sweat the Opening Day starter or bullpen roles. On Opening Day, minor league teams tend to start whoever is lined up to pitch that day coming out of camp, and almost zero minor league teams have designated bullpen roles. Seventeen different pitchers recorded a save for the RailRiders last season, led by Ernesto Frieri’s seven. Gallegos, Heller, and Holder figure to be the Circle of Trust™ relievers given their Triple-A experience and success.

Now that we’ve gone through all the trouble of piecing together a projected Triple-A Scranton roster, I have to point out that this will be wrong. Very wrong. Beyond the usual “he didn’t make it when I thought he would” type of wrong too. Guys are going to get hurt in Spring Training. Nature of the beast. Hopefully no one important gets hurt, but guys are going to get hurt, and the Yankees will have to adjust, and that adjustment will change the Triple-A roster.

Thanks to the farm system, Triple-A Scranton will have a very exciting roster this season, even with injuries and promotions and demotions and all that constantly changing things. The lineup is stacked and I count no fewer than eight legitimate MLB calibers on the pitching staff. It’s been a few years since the Yankees last had to scramble to sign scrap heap players to fill out their Triple-A roster. Now they have quality prospects at pretty much every position, which in turn means they have better depth pieces available to the big league team.

Sorting out the Yankees’ current rotation depth chart

January 11, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

If the Yankees get their way, they will go into Spring Training with six viable big league starters for five rotation spots. They’ve been trying to add a starter to a group that already includes Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. And not just a depth arm, either. They’ve been after guys like Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, and Chris Archer. The Yankees want impact.

Of course, even if the Yankees get that impact pitcher, they’re probably going to end up using more than six starters this coming season. That’s baseball. Last season the Yankees used eleven different starting pitchers, right at the MLB average of 11.6 starters. The last team to use as few as six starters in a single season is the 2013 Tigers. The 2003 Mariners are the last team to get through a season using only five starters. Think we’ll ever see that again?

The Yankees have five starters at the moment, so while they would like to add another high-end starter, they’re not desperate. They can wait out the market until the price drops to their liking. As for their depth starters, well those guys are going to come from the farm system, and the Yankees have some quality arms slated to begin the season in Triple-A. Here are the team’s No. 6-10 starters according to their 2018 ZiPS projections:

6. Chance Adams: +1.4 WAR in 132.2 innings
7. Domingo German: +1.0 WAR in 113.1 innings
8. Domingo Acevedo: +0.7 WAR in 117.1 innings
9. Justus Sheffield: +0.6 WAR in 99 innings
10. Luis Cessa: +0.3 WAR in 115.2 innings

Being able to stash two +1 WAR pitchers in Triple-A for emergencies is a pretty nice luxury. (I’m higher on Cessa than basically everyone, so I think it’s more like three +1 WAR pitchers in Triple-A, but ZiPS says what ZiPS says.) Lots of teams will go into the new season with a +1 WAR guy slated to be their fifth starter, hoping they won’t have to dip into the replacement level fodder sitting in the minors.

Teams do not base their rotation depth charts on ZiPS, however. Real live depth charts are based not only on the team’s internal statistical projections — yes, teams develop their own projections — but also scouting reports, development goals, and the 40-man roster. Oftentimes the spot starter decision will be made for the team. Who lines up to pitch that day? Okay, well, he’s getting the ball then. It happens all the time. A few thoughts on the rotation depth chart.

1. Do the Yankees consider Adams ready? Last season, they did not. At least not enough to justify putting him on the 40-man roster two years earlier than necessary. The Yankees wanted Adams to meet some developmental goals in the minors before bringing him to the Bronx, which is why those midseason spot starts when to Cessa and Bryan Mitchell and whoever else.

Adams put in close to a full season at Triple-A last year, and he did well superficially: 2.89 ERA (3.76 FIP) with 22.3% strikeouts and 9.3% walks in 115.1 innings. Those numbers usually do not tell the entire story, however. The Yankees may want Adams to, say, improve his changeup. Or get more comfortable pitching lefties inside. Or do a better job locating his fastball from the stretch. That sorta stuff determines MLB readiness more than stats.

I expected Adams to make his MLB debut last season, and if you’d have told me in March he wouldn’t, I would’ve assumed an injury was involved. Instead, the Yankees wanted Adams to continue working on some things in Triple-A. Has he improved enough to get the call this year? If not, how long until that happens, assuming he isn’t traded before Opening Day? When it comes to Adams being an MLB option, the numbers tell one story. The Yankees’ actions tell another.

2. Acevedo and Sheffield aren’t rotation options yet. Unless the Yankees manage to get to August or even September without needing their eighth or ninth starter, I don’t think Acevedo and Sheffield are really eighth and ninth on the depth chart, as ZiPS suggests. Acevedo made two Triple-A starts last year and spent most of the summer in Double-A. Sheffield spent the season at Double-A and missed several weeks with an oblique injury.

Based on the Adams (and Severino and Montgomery) precedent, both Acevedo and Sheffield are going to get Triple-A time before the Yankees are ready to bring them to the show. Acevedo is on the 40-man roster, so perhaps he gets called up as a shuttle arm or emergency starter or something, but I think the plan is to give him a bunch of innings in Triple-A so he can continue working on his breaking ball and command. Sheffield isn’t on the 40-man and has yet to throw even 130 innings in a season. The Yankees will stick to their development plan with him. It’ll probably be a few months before these two are realistic big league options.

3. Like it or not, Cessa is going to keep getting chances. Like I said, I’m a Cessa fan. I like his velocity, his array of secondary pitches, and his athleticism. Does that mean I think he’ll be an impact starter? Of course not. I think the tools are there for him to be a solid fourth starter, the kinda guy who gets about $10M a year in free agency. At the same time, I know I am in the minority. Cessa has a 4.49 ERA (5.58 FIP) in 106.1 MLB innings, so yeah.

Clearly, there’s something the Yankees like about Cessa, because he keeps getting chances. He joined the rotation late in 2016 after Nathan Eovaldi got hurt, and he drew spot starts last year when Sabathia’s knee acted up. Cessa can start, he can relieve, and he’s on the 40-man and optionable. Maybe the Yankees don’t like him as much as me. They probably don’t. But Cessa is a viable depth arm and he’s only 25, so the Yankees are going to continue giving him opportunities to see if something clicks. Maybe it clicks in relief, ultimately. Either way, I think Cessa is the de facto sixth starter right now, regardless of the ZiPS projections.

4. Mystery starters are coming. Who had Caleb Smith making starts at midseason last year? Or Cessa and Chad Green two years ago? Or Chase Whitley in 2014? These unexpected call-ups happen all the time and for all different reasons. Smith was having an exceptional Triple-A season and impressed enough in a long relief outing to get a start. Green was throwing the snot out of the ball for the RailRiders two years ago. Whitley handled the reliever-to-starter conversion better than anyone expected.

These surprise starters come with the territory during a long 162-game season. Who will be the random minor leaguer who ends up making some starts this summer? My money is on Brady Lail, but don’t sleep on Nestor Cortes. He’ll be in camp as a Rule 5 Draft pick with the Orioles, though if he comes back, he could get a look. That’s basically what happened with Smith last year. He was a Rule 5 Draft guy with the Cubs, came back to the Yankees, then got called up. Point is, we can put together this carefully thought out rotation depth chart, then some random minor leaguer will barf all over it.

* * *

Rotation depth tends to disappear quickly. As soon as you think you have it, you don’t. Guys get hurt, guys underperform, things never go according to plan. That’s why the Yankees are looking to add a high-end starter. The more the better. I have some concerns about the current rotation given last year’s workloads, but I’m also comfortable with Cessa and German as the sixth and seventh starters, especially with Adams waiting behind them. At the same time, if the Yankees want to add more arms for depth, I am all for it.

The Fill-in Starting Pitchers [2017 Season Review]

December 5, 2017 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Although they went into Spring Training with two open rotation spots and physical concerns with the other three spots, the Yankees made it through the 2017 season using only eleven different starting pitchers. Only ten teams used fewer. Furthermore, the Yankees had only eight pitchers make at least five starts this year. Those eight pitchers accounted for 158 of the Yankees’ 162 starts this season.

Pitching depth is a necessity in baseball, not a luxury, and the Yankees got some decent production out of their depth arms this year. Given how often pitchers get hurt, the performance of your sixth or seventh starter can very easily be the difference between a postseason berth and a long offseason. Times to review the three starters who drew the most fill-in starts during the 2017 season.

Luis Cessa

It wasn’t until mid-June that the Yankees were forced to use a sixth starter for the first time. A hamstring injury sent CC Sabathia to the disabled list, and while Cessa’s overall Triple-A numbers weren’t great (4.15 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 65 innings), he’d allowed only five runs in his previous three starts and 20 innings. He was the hot hand. Plus he lined up perfectly with Sabathia’s rotation spot.

Cessa made three starts while Sabathia was sidelined, during which he allowed eleven runs on 13 hits and six walks in 13.2 innings. One start was okay (three runs in five innings) while the other two were bad (four runs in four innings, four runs in 4.2 innings). Joe Girardi kept the leash short with Cessa — he averaged only 82 pitches in those three starts, all Yankees losses — which was understandable.

The Yankees kept Cessa around as a long reliever following Sabathia’s return, and he pitched fairly well in that role, allowing six runs in 14.2 innings across five appearances. One real disaster outing against the Reds (three runs in one inning) skew the numbers a bit. Cessa tossed 4.2 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on July 4th and 3.1 scoreless innings against the Rays on July 30th.

Following a quick stint in Triple-A, Cessa returned to the Yankees in mid-August, making a spot start against the Mets on August 14th when Sabathia’s knee acted up. He allowed two runs in 4.2 innings and had to be pulled after throwing 66 pitches with what appeared to be a back injury. Cessa would not pitch again this season. He was placed on the disabled list the next day with what the Yankees called a rib cage injury. It was season-ending.

In five spot starts this season Cessa pitched to a 5.82 ERA (6.25 FIP) and held hitters to a .256/.360/.535 batting line in 21.2 innings. In five relief appearances, he had a 3.14 ERA (4.83 FIP) and a .259/.333/.389 opponent’s batting line in 14.1 innings. (Cessa also had a 3.46 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 78.1 Triple-A innings.) Pretty bad all around, save those long relief outings against the Blue Jays and Rays.

I am a Cessa fan — I know that puts me in the extreme minority — because I like his athleticism (former shortstop!), I like his velocity (averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph in 2017), and I like that he throws four pitches. That said, Cessa shelved his curveball and changeup as the season progressed and started to lean heavily on his fastball and slider:

The swing-and-miss rate on Cessa’s slider this year: 21.4%. The MLB average is 16.9%. The whiffs-per-swing rate on Cessa’s slider this year: 43.2%. The MLB average is 35.2%. When you’re getting empty swings like that on your slider, why bother messing around with a curveball and changeup, especially when you’re trying to stick around and establish yourself in the big leagues?

Cessa will turn 26 in April and he has a minor league option remaining for next season, so he figures to again be an up-and-down depth arm in 2018. He doesn’t want to become Bryan Mitchell. That good arm/bad results guy who runs out of options without having carved out a role in the big leagues. Depending how the rotation depth chart shakes out, the Yankees might be best served by putting Cessa in the bullpen full-time next year, and letting him air it out with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. He just might surprise you.

Jaime Garcia

Despite strong overall results, the rotation was enough of a concern at the trade deadline that the Yankees added two starters, not one. Michael Pineda went down with Tommy John surgery, Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery were piling up innings, and Sabathia’s knee is an ongoing concern. So, on July 30th, the Yankees traded pitching prospects Dietrich Enns and Zack Littell to the Twins for veteran southpaw Jaime Garcia. They then traded for Sonny Gray the next day.

Garcia made his Yankees debut on August 4th and it did not go well. Not at all. He allowed six runs (five earned) in 4.2 innings in Cleveland. Yuck. After that though, Jaime reeled off a six-start stretch in which he pitched to a 2.97 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 30.1 innings. Girardi had a short leash and didn’t let Garcia face the middle of the lineup a third time often, but hey, that’s a serviceable six-start stretch. Coincidentally enough, Jaime’s best game as a Yankee came against the Twins, his former team, on September 18th.

Nine strikeouts and one unearned run on four hits and one walk in 5.2 innings against the team chasing you for the top wildcard spot. Could you imagine if Garcia had pitched like that in a postseason race against the Yankees after they’d traded him? Good gravy. The hot takes would burn down the internet. Garcia helped the Yankees sweep the Twins that series, which effectively ended the race for the top wildcard spot.

Jaime made eight starts for the Yankees after the trade — they used a quasi-six-man rotation for parts of September, so at one point Garcia went 13 days between starts — throwing 37.1 innings with a 4.82 ERA (4.87 FIP) overall. Not great, but they, the Yankees needed the pitching depth, and the six-start stretch in the middle was fine. Garcia was on the ALDS and ALCS rosters and he did get into a postseason game, tossing 2.2 hitless mop-up innings in Game One against the Indians, sparing the other relievers in the loss. (The bullpen was shot after the Wild Card Game, remember.)

Garcia was a rental. He’s a free agent now and there are no indications the Yankees may bring him back, though, to be fair, there are no indications the Yankees plan to do anything right now. Things have been pretty quiet the last few days. I suppose the Yankees could look at Jaime as a one-year candidate should they opt against bringing Sabathia back. I doubt it, but you never know.

Caleb Smith

Smith’s season started with the biggest opportunity of his career. He was in camp with the Cubs as a Rule 5 Draft pick. Chicago wanted him so much they worked out a trade with the Brewers to get him. In a prearranged deal, Milwaukee picked Smith in the Rule 5 Draft, then immediately traded him to their NL Central rivals for an undisclosed sum of cash. The Cubbies wanted Smith, but they had the last Rule 5 Draft pick and were worried he wouldn’t last, so they made the trade.

Things didn’t work out for Smith with the Cubs. He allowed three runs (all on solo homers) in 6.1 Cactus League innings and was returned to the Yankees at the end of camp. It was going to be tough for Smith to crack Chicago’s roster given their depth anyway, and once he started serving up dingers in Spring Training, that was that. The Cubs took a look, didn’t like what they saw enough to keep him, then sent him back to the Yankees.

The Yankees had Smith start the season back in Double-A — he spent the 2015 and 2016 seasons with Trenton — but moved him up to Triple-A Scranton a week into the season. He was lights out with the RailRiders. I’m talking 2.11 ERA (3.32 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts in 15 starts and 89.2 innings before getting his first MLB call-up in July. The Yankees needed another long man and Smith was their pick.

Smith’s first big league outing went better than the line score indicates: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. He retired the first six men he faced before things unraveled when some ground balls found holes in his third inning of work. The outing was good enough to earn Smith a spot start a few days later, in Pineda’s suddenly vacant rotation spot. He made two starts and neither went particularly well:

July 23rd at Mariners: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB 2 K on 56 pitches
July 29th vs. Rays: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K on 71 pitches

Despite being a lefty with good velocity — Smith’s fastball averaged 93.6 mph and topped out at 97.1 mph during his brief MLB stint — and a good changeup, Smith struggled to put hitters away in his two spot starts, especially once the lineup turned over. Realistically, I don’t think there was anything he could do in those two starts to convince the Yankees they didn’t need Garcia and/or Gray. That he struggled made the decision to make the trades that much easier.

Smith went back to Triple-A for a few weeks after that before returning in mid-August as a reliever. In six relief outings to close out the season, he allowed eight runs in 8.2 innings, with opponents hitting .265/.359/.559 against him. A disastrous three runs, no outs appearance against the Rangers on September 8th skews his numbers a bit for sure. But still, Smith did not pitch all that well in the show. He threw 18.2 total innings with a 7.71 ERA (5.62 FIP).

Two weeks ago, as part of their annual 40-man roster cleanup, the Yankees traded Smith (and Garrett Cooper) to the Marlins for pitching prospect Mike King and $250,000 in ~~Shohei Ohtani~~ international bonus money. Smith wasn’t going to survive the 40-man roster purge and the Yankees got what they could for him. This is a good thing for him. Smith will turn 27 in July, and he figures to have a much better big league opportunity with Miami next year than he would with the Yankees. Hopefully things work out for him. He’s stuck with it for an awful long time in the minors.