Luis Severino Archives - Page 23 of 33

Girardi confirms Tanaka to start Opening Day; Romine and Cessa make roster

March 31, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

During this afternoon’s game broadcast on YES, Joe Girardi confirmed Masahiro Tanaka will indeed start Opening Day this coming Monday. He’s been lined up to start Opening Day all spring, so this isn’t a surprise. The Yankees dragged out the announcement for whatever reason. It will be Tanaka’s second straight Opening Day start.

The rotation behind Tanaka will be Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, and Luis Severino in that order, Girardi confirmed. The Yankees will pick between CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova for the fifth starter’s spot. Apparently that decision has not yet been made. Either that or the players have not been informed and the team is not ready to make the announcement.

Girardi also said both Luis Cessa and Austin Romine will make the Opening Day roster. The writing has been on the wall for Romine since Gary Sanchez was optioned to minor league camp last week. He’s had the inside track to be Brian McCann’s backup for a while now. Romine has had a nice camp, and because he is out of options with a prior outright assignment, he could have elected free agent if he did not make the team.

Cessa, 23, came over from the Tigers this past offseason in the Justin Wilson trade. He allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks in ten innings this spring, and all three runs came in one of his five Grapefruit League outings. Cessa struck out ten. He’s a starter by trade and can give the team multiple innings. Interestingly, Girardi said Cessa made the team even before Bryan Mitchell went down with his broken toe.

In other roster news, Johnny Barbato told reporters in Tampa this morning he has been told he will make the team as well. The 23-year-old came over from the Padres in last year’s Shawn Kelley trade. He surrendered one run in 10.1 innings this spring, with 12 strikeouts and one one walk. Neither Barbato nor Cessa has pitched in the big leagues before, so the Yankees will have two true rookies in their Opening Day bullpen.

Earlier this week we learned Ronald Torreyes has indeed made the team as the backup infielder, beating out Pete Kozma. Here’s the roster at the moment:

CATCHERS (2)	INFIELDERS (6)	OUTFIELDERS (4)	STARTERS (5)	RELIEVERS (7)	MISC. (4)
McCann	Ackley	Beltran	Tanaka	Barbato	Chapman (sus.)
Romine	Castro	Ellsbury	Pineda	Betances	Bird (DL)
	Gregorius	Gardner	Eovaldi	Cessa	Mitchell (DL)
DH (1)	Headley	Hicks	Severino	Shreve	Williams (DL)
Rodriguez	Teixeira		CC or Nova	CC or Nova
	Torreyes			Miller?
				???

Andrew Miller is a question right now because he suffered a chip fracture yesterday when he took a line drive to the wrist. He intends to pitch through his wrist fracture, though we’ll see what happens later today, after he visits a specialist. It might not be a playable injury. Hopefully it is.

Mitchell’s injury created an open bullpen spot, which is that last ??? in the table under relievers. Kirby Yates and Anthony Swarzak are the only bullpeners still in big league camp and not on the Opening Day roster. Yates has out-pitched Swarzak this spring, so we’ll see if that’s enough to land him on the team. The Yankees could always bring someone back from minor league camp as well.

The Yankees won’t say it, but the rotation is already lined up for the regular season

March 24, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Opening Day is only ten days away now. Soon the mundane monotony of Spring Training will be replaced by meaningful games that have a real impact on the standings. We can celebrate wins and lament losses. The very best and the very worst thing about baseball is that it’s every day. Soon the every day games will mean something.

Joe Girardi and the Yankees have not yet announced their rotation for the start of the season, which is not a big deal at all, though they do seem to be going to great lengths to keep the rotation order secret. The team claims the fifth starter’s spot is up for grabs and the closest Girardi has come to announcing Masahiro Tanaka will start Opening Day is that we “could surmise” it.

“We’ve kind of thought about (the rotation order), but because we had so many things we were dealing with when we came back this spring, we didn’t have anything set in stone,” said Girardi to Chad Jennings yesterday. “We’re starting to try to line them up. Obviously you have to figure out who your Opening Day guy is, and then you go from there. We have to iron out the fifth starter situation, too. We don’t have an exact order yet, but we’re happy with where the guys are.”

The rotation is not like the lineup. You can’t just move pieces into different spots on different days. Pitchers are on schedules and they have their throw days, they need a certain amount of rest, all that stuff. Especially this late in Spring Training. It’s a little too late in the game to be shifting pitchers around and disrupting schedules, you know? This is how the rotation is lined up at the moment:

Tuesday, March 22nd: Luis Severino (Nathan Eovaldi in a minor league game)
Wednesday, March 23rd: Tanaka
Thursday, March 24th: CC Sabathia
Friday, March 25th: Ivan Nova
Saturday, March 26th: Michael Pineda
Sunday, March 27th: Severino or Eovaldi (guessing Eovaldi starts to give Severino an extra day of rest)
Monday, March 28th: Severino or Eovaldi
Tuesday, March 29th: Tanaka and Sabathia in split squad games
Wednesday, March 30th: Nova
Thursday, March 31st: Pineda and a spot starter (Bryan Mitchell?) in split squad games
Friday, April 1st: Severino or Eovaldi (would have to be whoever starts the 27th)
Saturday, April 2nd: Severino or Eovaldi
Sunday, April 3rd: off-day

That lines Tanaka up to start Opening Day, April 4th, with an extra day of rest, which the Yankees prefer. April 5th is the typical post-Opening Day off-day, then Pineda is lined up perfectly to start the second game of the season on April 6th. He’s currently two days behind Tanaka on the spring schedule. Severino and Eovaldi are then lined up for the third and fourth game of the season — I’m guessing the veteran Eovaldi starts before the kid Severino — then Sabathia or Nova are in line for the fifth game. Make sense?

Will the Yankees actually start Sabathia in the fifth game of the season? It’s possible, sure. They would also have the option to start him earlier, perhaps in the third game of the season, given the way the schedule is laid out. Tanaka, Pineda, and Sabathia started the first three games of last season in that order. I guess Sabathia’s place — assuming he gets the rotation job, of course — could depend on the matchups. Would the Yankees rather have him face the Astros at home in the first series of the season, or the Tigers in Detroit in the second series?

My educated guess right now is the Yankees will start the season with Tanaka on Opening Day, followed by Pineda, Eovaldi, Sabathia, and Severino in that order. Should Nova actually beat out Sabathia for a rotation spot, as unlikely as that may be, I think he would be the fifth starter and Severino the fourth. I still have a hard time believing that will happen, but who knows. Maybe the Yankees will stash Sabathia on the DL to give him an extra long Spring Training.

In the grand scheme of things, the rotation order on Opening Day doesn’t mean a whole lot. The rotation at the end of the season and heading into the postseason is far more important. The Opening Day start is more ceremonial than anything. The Yankees are keeping their rotation a bit of a secret right now, which is fine. Given the way the pitching schedule is laid out right now though, it’s easy to see how things line up. Now the Yankees just have to make it official.

Sorting through the 45 players the Yankees still have on their Spring Training roster

March 21, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Two weeks from today, the Yankees will open the 2016 regular season at home against the Astros. There are a 14 exhibition games to be played between now and then, and several roster decisions have to be made as well. The Yankees have made two rounds of roster cuts so far, paring the number of players in big league camp from 70 down to 45. Another 20 still must go.

It goes without saying some of those 45 players have a much better chance to make the Opening Day roster than others. You’d be surprised to see how few have close to no chance to make the team though. The Yankees have only a few open roster spots but an awful lot of candidates to fill them. Let’s look over the 45 players still in big league camp and figure out where they fit going forward.

Definitely Making The Team (20)

These are the easiest calls, so we might as well start here. These 20 players will definitely be on the Opening Day roster:

Position Players (11): Dustin Ackley, Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley, Aaron Hicks, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira
Pitchers (9): Dellin Betances, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Miller, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Chasen Shreve, Masahiro Tanaka

Coming into the spring I would not have considered Shreve a lock for the bullpen, but it’s pretty safe to say he’s in right now. He’s been phenomenal in camp, he was awesome most of last year, and Joe Girardi is talking about him like one of his regular relievers. Shreve’s going to break camp with the Yankees.

The Yankees insist they are having a true competition for the fifth starter’s spot, though sending Sabathia to the bullpen so Nova can start is one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” things. Maybe the Yankees will figure out a way to stick Sabathia on the DL rather than send him to the bullpen, though that would surprise me. I’m sticking with what I said last week: I don’t believe Sabathia is truly competing for a rotation spot. He’s in.

Very Likely To Make The Team (2)

In Bryan Mitchell and Rob Refsnyder, the Yankees have two young players who are forcing the issue with their Spring Training performances. Both saw time in the show last year and both came to camp on the roster bubble. Mitchell keeps throwing fire and getting outs while Refsnyder has shown he can actually handle third base, a position he never played prior to this spring.

“(Refsnyder at third base) been better than I expected, to be honest. He’s never been over to that side of the infield. His reactions are really good. His arm’s good,” said Brian Cashman to Meredith Marakovits recently (video link). The Yankees need a backup third baseman now that Castro will stick to second, and Refsnyder has taken to the position quickly. He hit in his limited time last year and he adds some balance as a righty hitter.

As for Mitchell, the Yankees do have three open bullpens, and none of the shuttle relievers have impressed this spring. He’s been by far the best of the team’s bullpen candidates, and Girardi has mentioned him as a potential Adam Warren replacement, meaning a multi-inning reliever. Mitchell pitched pretty well in relief last year before taking that line drive to the nose. I wouldn’t call him or Refsnyder locks for the Opening Day roster, but they sure look like strong candidates right now.

Hurt Or Suspended (3)

Three of the 45 players still in camp will not be on the active 25-man roster when the season begins. Aroldis Chapman has to serve his 30-game suspension, and both Greg Bird and Mason Williams will start the season on the DL following shoulder surgery. Bird’s going to be out for the year. We know that already. Williams is doing pretty much everything — throwing, hitting, etc. — but still needs more time to finish up his rehab.

There are some 40-man roster implications here. Chapman will be on the restricted list and will not count towards the 40-man roster while suspended. Bird can also be placed on the 60-day DL whenever a 40-man spot is needed. The 60-day DL is kinda weird though. Teams can only use it when they need it, meaning another player has to placed on the 40-man right away. Bird will likely start the season on the 15-day DL, then be transferred over whenever a 40-man spot is inevitably needed.

In The Mix For A Roster Spot (7)

This might as well be the shuttle reliever category. Johnny Barbato, Nick Goody, James Pazos, Branden Pinder, and Nick Rumbelow are all still in camp and they’re all on the 40-man roster. All but Barbato pitched in the big leagues last year too. Barbato has pitched the best during Grapefruit League play so far, which won’t hurt his case for the Opening Day roster. Then again, none of these guys have thrown more than seven innings this spring.

Based on everything I have above, five of the seven bullpen spots are claimed: Miller, Betances, Shreve, Mitchell, and Nova (or Sabathia). I honestly have no idea how those last two spots will shake out. I don’t even have an inkling which way the Yankees are leaning. Barbato has pitched well so far, though that doesn’t mean much. He’s got two weeks to make some mistakes. At the same time, the other guys have a chance to step up their game. The best way to describe the bullpen situation right now is: developing.

Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez are also in the mix for a roster spot. They’re competing for the backup catcher’s job, and right now I’d say it’s advantage Romine. Sanchez has not had a good spring (1-for-17) and over the weekend Girardi said he seems to be pressing. There’s also the service time issue (35 days in the minors delays Sanchez’s free agency a year) and the fact that Sanchez probably could use some more Triple-A time to work on his defense.

Out of these seven players, all but Romine will go to Triple-A if they don’t make the team. Romine’s out of options, so if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, he’ll go on waivers. And even if he clears, he can elect free agency. The Yankees can’t expect to keep him based on those conditions. That’s probably another reason Romine seems to be the favorite to back up McCann right now.

Oh Gosh, They Might Actually Make The Team (5)

Remember Chris Martin? He was that random offseason pickup no one really paid attention to last year, then bam, he was on the Opening Day roster. The five guys in this group are candidates to be this year’s Chris Martin. Here’s how they can make the team out of camp:

Chris Denorfia: Unlike most of the team’s depth outfielders, Denorfia hits right-handed and he has a lot of MLB experience. He strikes me as the top bench candidate should Ellsbury’s wrist injury linger.
Pete Kozma: What if the Yankees want to give Refsnyder some more Triple-A time to continue working at third? Kozma, a veteran utility man, is the annoyingly obvious alternative.
Tyler Olson: Having a very good spring and could fill one of the open bullpen spots. Olson is a true lefty specialist and Girardi sure does love his matchups.
Anthony Swarzak: Swarzak has been solid overall, and he’s another guy with MLB experience. The fact he can throw multiple innings may land him in the bullpen.
Kirby Yates: Quietly shoving this spring (4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K) and he has big league time under his belt. With none of the shuttle guys standing put, Yates could grab a bullpen spot.

Yeah, you don’t have to try real hard to see one or two (or three) of these guys making the team, do you? It’s surprisingly easy, in fact. I swear, these guys just sneak up on you. You overlook them as cast-offs when they’re acquired, and before you know, they’re standing on the foul line and being introduced on Opening Day. Baseball, man.

Long Shots To Make The Team (8)

Never say never, but I am comfortable saying these last eight players are very unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. Catchers Carlos Corporan and Eddy Rodriguez remain in camp, though Girardi has dismissed them as backup catcher candidates. They’re still around so McCann, Romine, and Sanchez don’t have to catch every inning of every spring game. That’s all.

Chris Parmelee was signed to replace Bird as the Triple-A first baseman, so he’s going to Triple-A. The only way he makes the Opening Day roster is if Teixeira gets hurt. (I don’t think he’d make it if A-Rod got hurt. They’d use Beltran at DH in that case.) Ronald Torreyes had gotten a look at third base this spring and he’s been fine overall. At this point I think he’s behind Refsnyder and Kozma on the backup infield depth chart.

In addition to Denorfia, Slade Heathcott and Cesar Puello are the last remaining spare outfielders in camp. Heathcott has been brutal during Grapefruit League play (1-for-22!), and while that isn’t everything, I think it puts him behind Denorfia on the depth chart should Ellsbury stay hurt. Puello’s been great in camp, but this is a guy who played one game last season due to a back injury. I can’t see him sticking even if Ellsbury’s wrist problem lingers.

The last two arms in camp are Diego Moreno and Luis Cessa. The Yankees really like Cessa — Cashman in particular has talked him up — and he’s looked pretty good in his limited action. Those are the key words there, limited action. He’s appeared in only three Spring Training games, and if the Yankees were seriously considering Cessa for the roster, he’d get more looks. Pitching two innings once a week suggests he’s on the outside looking in. That’s fine. He could use more Triple-A time anyway.

The Yankees seem to like Moreno more than we realize — he’s been mentioned as a call-up candidate for two or three years now — and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him again this summer. He is not on the 40-man roster right now, and he hasn’t pitched well in camp (six runs in 5.1 innings), so it seems safe to say Diego is way down on the Opening Day bullpen depth chart at the moment. The Yankees have too many other candidates.

* * *

With Opening Day two weeks away, it appears the Yankees have 22 of their 25 roster spots figured out. They need to pick a backup catcher and decide who will hold down the last two bullpen spots on a temporary basis. I assume those will be shuttle spots, with new guys cycling in and out as necessary, especially early in the season. The next round of roster cuts should be coming next weekend, and that may lend some clarity to the bullpen situation.

Heyman: Yankees and Braves talked 10-player blockbuster with Heyward, Simmons, Severino last year

March 8, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Simmons and Heyward. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Last offseason we learned the Yankees and Braves discussed a blockbuster trade that would have brought Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons to New York for a package of prospects. We later found out Luis Severino would have been part of that trade, which makes sense. The Braves were focusing on young pitching in all their trades last winter and Severino was the best young pitcher the Yankees had to offer.

The trade didn’t go through, obviously. Heyward was traded to the Cardinals, Simmons spent another year in Atlanta before being traded to the Angels, and Severino remains a Yankee. Late last night, Jon Heyman reported some more details of the blockbuster proposal, and it was a five-for-five swap. Check out this deal:

To Yankees: Heyward, Simmons, ~~B.J.~~ Melvin Upton, Chris Johnson, David Carpenter
To Braves: Severino, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Ian Clarkin, Manny Banuelos

Holy moly, that is a lot of players and a lot of talent. And also some dead roster weight. Heyman says Heyward was told the Yankees were close to getting him “many times” last offseason, for what it’s worth. Keep in mind Heyward was traded to the Cardinals on November 17th, so the Yankees and Braves discussed this blockbuster very early in the offseason. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this.

1. Heyman says the Yankees were the team that declined to pull the trigger, indicating the Braves suggested the five-for-five swap. That makes sense. I have a hard time believing the Yankees would have been willing to put that much young talent on the table — unproven minor league young talent, but young talent nonetheless — and take back what amounted to one long-term piece in Simmons. Heyward was a year away from free agency, Upton and Johnson had albatross contracts, and Carpenter was only a reliever. A good reliever (with the Braves, at least) but still only a reliever. I guess the Yankees could have signed Heyward to an extension, though that doesn’t really change the evaluation of the trade. It’s not like the Braves are giving you the extension. The trade and extension are separate transactions. Based on my 2015 Preseason Top 30 Prospects List, that trade would have sent New York’s four (!) best prospects to the Braves. Sheesh. Too much. Glad they didn’t pull the trigger.

2. I found it pretty interesting Simmons was traded this offseason to the Angels, who are now run by former Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler. I wonder if Eppler was the driving force behind the Yankees’ interest in Simmons. At the very least we know he was on board with trying to acquire Andrelton. That’s understandable. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the world and one of the best in history. That said, I am perfectly happy with Didi Gregorius, aren’t you?

Simmons is very good. I would so much rather have Gregorius at the price it took to acquire him than Simmons at the price it would have taken to acquire him, and that was true last offseason. And that’s coming from someone who expected Shane Greene to have a really good year last season. I didn’t foresee him struggling that much at all. Simmons is a very good shortstop with big name value. Didi’s production is comparable, he came at a much lower cost, and he’s cheaper. In the past the Yankees went for the big name, not the smart pickup. Who is this team and what have they done with the Yankees?

3. The Heyward angle is interesting because the Yankees had a full outfield. They had Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran last offseason. What they didn’t have was an idea what they’d get from Alex Rodriguez coming off his suspension. I guess the plan was to put Heyward in right field, move Beltran to DH, and then figure things out with A-Rod later. The Yankees approached last offseason as if Rodriguez was going to be a non-factor. They re-signed Chase Headley to play third base and one of the reasons they acquired Garrett Jones was to ensure they had a backup plan at DH. (Also, Beltran was coming off surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, so he was a question too.) They never needed that backup plan. Rod mashed from Day One. Making the four-man outfield work would have been tricky, but remember, Gardner missed a few games in April after taking a pitch to the wrist, and Ellsbury missed seven weeks after hurting his knee in May. These things have a way of working themselves out.

4. This trade was talked about very early in the offseason, so had it gone through, the Yankees probably would not have re-signed Chris Young and instead let Upton fill that role. What else would they do with him? Bossman Jr. was a total disaster in his two years with the Braves — he hit .198/.279/.314 (66 wRC+) in just over 1,000 plate appearances from 2013-14 — but he did actually have a nice year with the Padres in 2015, putting up a .259/.327/.429 (110 wRC+) batting line with five homers and nine steals in 228 plate appearances around a foot injury. That includes a .254/.369/.423 (124 wRC+) line against southpaws. Nice numbers, but as with Gregorius over Simmons, give me the guy the Yankees actually acquired (Young) over the guy they could have acquired (Upton), especially considering the acquisition cost.

5. The Braves would have had to kick in money to make this trade work, right? I can’t imagine they realistically expected the Yankees to give up all that young talent and take on all that salary. Not counting the arbitration-eligible Carpenter, the four guys who would have come to New York in the trade were owed a combined $133.15M across 13 contract seasons. I know a $10.24M average annual value doesn’t sound bad, but it’s not actually spread out across 13 seasons. Most of those seasons overlap. Heyward’s very good and so is Simmons, but how could the Braves not kick in money to facilitate this trade? Substantial money too. They’d have to pay down something like $30M or even $40M of that $113.15M. Giving up all that talent and taking on all that money makes no sense for the Yankees, not when only one of the five players they were set to receive was a significant long-term asset (Simmons).

6. I think both the Yankees and Braves are better off now than they would have been had the trade gone through. The Yankees kept Severino, kept their other prospects, and acquired Gregorius to take over at short. The Braves turned Heyward into Shelby Miller, then Miller into three really good young players (Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair). Simmons fetched a top 20 pitching prospect (Sean Newcomb), another very good pitching prospect (Chris Ellis), and a tradeable veteran (Erick Aybar). Upton’s contract was dumped on the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade with actual prospects going back to Atlanta, and Johnson was sent to the Indians for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn in a trade that rearranged money to make things more favorable for both teams. (The Indians got a lower average annual value and the Braves now have the money coming off the books a year earlier than they would have.) And then Banuelos and Carpenter ended up being traded for each other anyway. I’m sure both the Yankees and Braves were disappointed they weren’t able to work out a trade last year. From the looks of it, both teams are better off with the way things worked out.

7. I’m (very) glad the Yankees walked way from this trade — I don’t mean that in a prospect hugging way, it’s just a lot of talent to give up for two impact players, one of whom was a year away from free agency — and I’m also glad to see they’re at least willing to discuss their top prospects in trades. Too many teams out there seem completely unwilling to even consider making their best prospects available. Young talent is important! It’s also fairly unpredictable and risky. I really like Judge and think he has a chance to be a +4 WAR outfielder down the road, but at the same time, I also recognize he might never get there because he’s so damn big and strikeouts will always be an issue. Banuelos hasn’t been the same since Tommy John surgery. Clarkin got hurt a few weeks after the blockbuster was discussed. I’m glad the Yankees are emphasizing young talent now. That’s what they need to do at this point. They’d also be smart to not make all their top prospects off-limits. There’s always a point where dealing a highly touted young player makes sense, and teams owe it to themselves to explore those opportunities. They’re often fleeting.

Luis Severino’s Next Step Toward the Front of the Rotation [2016 Season Preview]

March 8, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Heading into the trade deadline last season, it was pretty clear the Yankees needed some rotation help. CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova were struggling, Michael Pineda had just come down with a forearm issue, and Adam Warren was not stretched out after moving to the bullpen. Masahiro Tanaka and Nathan Eovaldi carried the load there for a while, and they needed help.

The Yankees tried to trade for a starter. They were connected to all sorts of pitchers prior to the deadline. Rentals, long-term buys, you name it. Nothing came at a price they liked. So, rather than trade for a starter — ten (!) starting pitchers were traded in the days leading up to the deadline: David Price, J.A. Happ, Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Mike Fiers, Mike Leake, Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Dan Haren — the Yankees dipped into their farm system and called up top pitching prospect Luis Severino.

Severino, who turned only 22 last month, came up and made eleven mostly spectacular starts, giving the Yankees 62.1 innings of 2.89 ERA (4.37 FIP) ball. Outside of Price and possibly Hamels, none of those traded starters could have given the Yankees as much impact as Severino. He was excellent, so much so that it was fair to ask whether he deserved to start the wildcard game. (Ultimately it didn’t matter who started because the offense did nothing.)

Coming into the 2016 season, Severino is not just the exciting young pitcher who represents the future of the rotation. He’s an important member of the team. The Yankees will need Severino to pitch well this summer in order to return to the postseason, and while that can be a lot to ask of a young starter, those were the exact circumstances he faced last year. Severino’s goals for the season are help the team win and continue to take steps towards the front of the rotation. I have two questions for 2016.

How Can He Improve?

Severino was really good in his limited look last season but there is definitely room for improvement. There always is. I already wrote about his need to get his slider down in the zone, and that’s a big one to me. Severino has really good stuff — he used three pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) regularly last year — and now he just needs to work on his location a bit. That’s not at all uncommon for pitchers his age.

The long ball was a bit of a problem last summer as well, and while Yankee Stadium is to blame for some of that, Severino shoulders some of responsibility too. Five of the nine homers he allowed came in two-strike counts, when hitters are supposed to be on the defensive, not squaring up hittable pitches. This goes back to Severino’s need to locate better down in the zone. Once he does that, some more balls should stay in the park.

Left-handed hitters also gave Severino some trouble, though you wouldn’t know it looking at the raw numbers. Righties had a .303 wOBA against him and lefties had a .314 wOBA. The difference is in the strikeout and walk rates. Severino had a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate against righties, and that’s awesome. Against lefties it was only a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate. That’s not so good. I’m not too worried about the strikeout rate, but I would like to see Severino cut down on the free passes against batters of the opposite hand.

We’re nitpicking at this point, which is a good sign. That means Severino has no obvious, glaring flaws that need correcting. His stuff is firm, he misses bats, and he gets ground balls (50.9%). He just needs to fine tune some things, like his slider location, his walk rate against lefties, and keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate in two-strike counts. These are normal things a 22-year-old must work on. Now he has to actually do it. Making adjustments is easier said than done.

How Many Innings Will He Throw?

The Yankees say Severino has no restrictions this year and there’s no reason to believe them. Severino is the crown jewel of their quasi-rebuild and they’re not going to put their just turned 22-year-old stud pitcher in danger by overworking him. “I’m not going to put a number out there. It can take on a life on it’s own,” said Brian Cashman last month, which more or less confirms there is some number they’re targeting.

Keeping Severino’s workload target a secret is the best possible thing the Yankees can do. Workload limits can become a distraction in a hurry. We saw the Joba Rules in 2007. They were unavoidable. There was also the Stephen Strasburg shutdown — people are still talking about that — and even last fall Matt Harvey’s innings were talked about non-stop. The Yankees have a number. There’s no reason to put it out there.

Last season Severino threw a career high 161.2 innings, up from 113 innings in 2015, so we’re talking about a 48.2 innings jump from year to year. The Verducci Effect, the theory that an increase of 30+ innings is dangerous, has been disproven many times over the years, but I can’t imagine too many teams are willing to push a young pitcher 50+ more innings one year to the next. Severino’s innings increase last year is the upper bound of what seems comfortable, if that makes sense.

Those 161.2 innings last year put Severino in position to throw something like 185-190 innings this year. Only seven pitchers have thrown 200+ innings in their age 22 season this century: Mark Buehrle, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Madison Bumgarner. Prior got hurt the very next year and was never the same again. The other six proved to be workhorses who chucked 200+ innings year after year.

That means nothing as far as Severino is concerned. It doesn’t mean he has a six in seven chance of becoming a horse. Every pitcher is different. I listed those seven pitchers just to show how rare it is for a pitcher this young to throw that many innings. Severino’s in position to throw 200+ innings in 2016. My guess is he falls short by design. The Yankees like to give their other starters extra rest whenever possible and there’s no reason to think Severino is different. He might even get more rest than everyone else. He’s simply too valuable to the franchise.

* * *

The Yankees need Severino to pitch well and pitch often this season to help get them back to the postseason. At the same time, he is still a 22-year-old kid and his development is far from complete. He has things to learn and he has to physically build himself up to withstand the grind of a 34-start season. There will be growing pains along the way because there are always growing pains. The Yankees and Severino hope those growing pains are just a bump in the road on the way stardom in 2016.

Saturday Links: Ellsbury, Severino, Comcast, Headgear

February 27, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

This is the last Saturday without some kind of baseball game — Spring Training, regular season, postseason, whatever — until November. That is pretty, pretty awesome. Here are some assorted links I have to pass along.

Ellsbury among worst contracts, Severino among best assets

Over at ESPN, Dan Szymborski used his ZiPS system to rank the 25 worst contracts (subs. req’d) and 25 best assets (subs. req’d) in baseball. Albert Pujols, who still has six years and $165M left on his deal, ranks as the worst contract while Carlos Correa checks in as the best asset. Mike Trout is second. I’d be more interested to see the 25 best contracts, but Szymborski included players in their pre-arbitration years.

The Yankees had one player on each list. Jacoby Ellsbury ranked 13th on the worst contracts list, sandwiched between Shin-Soo Choo and Justin Verlander. “Ellsbury’s Gold Glove days are behind him, though he remains at least a competent defensive center fielder, which means, at least theoretically, that flexibility keeps the number of (possible trade) suitors higher than some of the more limited players higher on this list,” said the write-up. Others like Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia didn’t make the worst contracts list because their deals expire soon.

As for the good news, Luis Severino ranked 21st on the best assets list, right behind Sonny Gray and a few spots ahead of Carlos Carrasco. “Severino’s 4.37 FIP wasn’t as impressive as his 2.89 ERA, but that should also improve considerably given he was a 21-year-old who started the season in Double-A and was thrown directly into a pennant race,” wrote Szymborski. I have to say, I’m not used to seeing the Yankees having a player on a best assets list. Or only one player on a worst contracts list, for that matter. Times are a changin’.

No progress in YES/Comcast squabble

There still has not been any progress in the YES Network/Comcast dispute. “Nothing to report,” said one YES executive to Ryan Hatch earlier this week. Again, the dispute is over rights fees. YES wants to charge cable providers a bit more money to carry the network going forward, and Comcast doesn’t want to pay, citing declining ratings and other things. I hope the two sides work something out before Opening Day. It seems likely Comcast customers will be left in the dark for Grapefruit League games, however. (Spring Training games are available on MLB.tv with no blackouts, thankfully.)

MLB, MLBPA to test new protective headgear for pitchers

According to William Weinbaum, this spring 20 big league pitchers will test out a new protective headgear that is a “hybrid of a cap and a helmet.” It weighs 10-12 ounces and has a carbon fiber shell, and as you can see in the photo above, it resembles a visor. “The average thickness is about 0.7 inches and is greatest in places most susceptible to catastrophic injury,” writes Weinbaum.

It’s unknown if any Yankees will use the new protective headgear, though no one in camp has worn them while throwing bullpens or live batting practice, as far as I know. Bryan Mitchell took a line drive to the nose last year, and a few years back Aroldis Chapman was hit in the face by a line drive during Spring Training, so I guess they’re the obvious candidates to wear some kind of new protective visor.

Chewing tobacco may soon be banned at Yankee Stadium

Thanks to a bill introduced by New York City Councilman Corey Johnson, smokeless tobacco may soon be banned at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field, reports Tim Rohan. “If New York passes this bill, and I think it will, it moves us dramatically closer to the day when smokeless tobacco is prohibited in all Major League cities,” said Matthew Myers, the president of Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. The Yankees (and Mets) have told Johnson they will support the bill.

Chewing tobacco is already banned at Fenway Park, Dodger Stadium, and AT&T Park after similar bills were approved unanimously in those cities. The goal isn’t so much to prevent players from using smokeless tobacco — it is a personal choice, after all — it’s to prevent them from using it on television where kids can see it. Tony Gwynn passed away following a battle with salivary gland cancer and Curt Schilling is still fighting mouth cancer, both of which have been attributed to their use of chewing tobacco as players. I don’t know if any Yankees use it regularly — CC Sabathia always seems to have a wad in his lip on days he doesn’t pitch, right? — but it soon may be off-limits.

Keeping the slider down can help Severino get to the next level in 2016

February 23, 2016 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The Yankees currently have six starters for five rotation spots, yet of the five, only Luis Severino did not miss time with an injury last season. The 22-year-old came up in August and made eleven mostly excellent starts, and now he’s slated to be a full-time member of the rotation in 2016. That’s exciting. The Yankees haven’t had a young MLB pitcher this promising in almost a decade.

Severino is still just a kid of course, and inevitably there will be growing pains at some point. That’s just the way it is. Hitters will adjust to him and he’ll have to adjust back, and then they’ll do it all over again, hopefully for years and years and years. Severino had a 2.89 ERA (137 ERA+) in his 62.1 innings last year, but his 1.3 HR/9 and 4.37 FIP show there is room for improvement.

“Oh, he could get better. The consistency of his pitches. The command of his fastball. And all of that will happen has he smooths out his delivery, which it seems like he has quite a bit,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild to Brendan Kuty. Severino flew through the minors — he made 65 starts and threw 320.2 innings in the minors, which is nothing — so of course he’s going to have to work on consistency and things like that.

Severino came to the big leagues billed as a three-pitch pitcher and we saw exactly that last year. He’s got a lively fastball, a promising slider, and a changeup that fell off the table when he threw it properly. Looking over the PitchFX data, there are plenty of positives to take from last season (MLB averages in parentheses).

	% Thrown	Avg. Velo.	Whiff%	GB%
Fastball	51.4%	95.8 (92.4)	8.2% (6.9%)	45.3% (37.9%)
Slider	34.1%	89.6 (84.2)	8.9% (15.2%)	58.1% (43.9%)
Changeup	14.6%	88.6 (83.3)	19.3% (14.9%)	63.2% (47.8%)

Almost all of that looks good. Severino throws all three pitches regularly and they all have well-above-average velocity, and they all get a lot of ground balls too. The fastball and changeup generated swings and misses at an above-average rate as well. The slider? Not so much.

The swing-and-miss rate on Severino’s slider was a real eyesore last season. It was far below the league average, which seems impossible after watching him live, but the numbers don’t lie. “His third pitch is a mid-80s slider thrown with power, which still takes a back seat to his fastball and changeup but projects as solid average when he’s finished developing,” said Baseball America (subs. req’d) in their scouting report prior to 2015.

The slider — specifically the ability to get whiffs with the slider — is something Severino could really improve going forward. Don’t take that as a knock. Severino was pretty awesome last season. Imagine how much more awesome he can be if he can start generating some more empty swings with his slider. He knows it’s something that can be improved too.

“My breaking stuff (can improve). Pounding the zone, throwing strikes. Getting down in the zone, throwing my breaking ball down in the zone,” said Severino to Kuty when asked about how he can get better going forward. Getting the ball down is always a good idea, and Severino ostensibly did a good job of that considering his overall ground ball rate (50.9%), but take a look at his slider pitch locations specifically (click for a larger view):

That’s an awful lot of sliders up and in the zone. Ideally Severino would bury the slider down and away to righties and down and in to lefties. Last summer David Laurila culled some quotes about backup sliders, which are surprisingly effectively because they’re hard to pick up and they don’t move the way the hitter expects …

… but Severino wasn’t throwing backup sliders. He was simply missing his spot, especially when you consider how many sliders were up and away to lefties. (It took me way too long to find an example of an effective backup slider. Nothing from Severino, nothing from Michael Pineda, nothing from Masahiro Tanaka, so down the line I went until I got to the now departed Adam Warren.)

Give the effectiveness of his fastball and changeup, the slider figures to be a focal point for Severino going forward, both in Spring Training and continuing into the season. The pitch has pretty good action, we saw it last year, but right now Severino elevates it a little too often, which causes problems. Once he is able to consistently locate his slider down, he’ll get more swings and misses, and it could also improve the effectiveness of his fastball. Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball played up once he emphasized the splitter. Same could happen with Severino and an improved slidepiece.

The Yankees are going to need Severino to pitch effectively this season in order to contend, even though he just turned 22 and will have to endure the usual growing pains associated with young pitchers. His workload will be monitored, stuff like that. Severino’s stuff is very good as it is, but there is an obvious way he can improve the effectiveness of his slider, and that’s by keeping it down in the zone. If he can begin to do that consistently, he’ll inch closer to his ceiling as a frontline starter.