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For better or worse, the Yankees seem to believe they’re set at first base going into 2019

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Voit. (Getty)

All offseason long the focus for the Yankees has been pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Starters, primarily, but also bullpen help as well. And they need a Didi Gregorius replacement too. Almost everything we’ve seen and heard this winter has revolved around pitching and a middle infielder to replace Gregorius. That’s pretty much it.

Despite positional uncertainty, we’ve heard basically nothing about the Yankees looking for first base help this winter. Nothing other than Brian Cashman essentially shooting down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. That has been the extent of the team’s first base rumors this offseason. Cashman saying Harper is a non-option at the position.

At the moment the Yankees are slated to go into next season with Luke Voit at first base and Greg Bird trying to reclaim the position. Cashman and Aaron Boone both kinda sorta indicated Voit will be the starter next year during their end-of-season press conferences, but stopped short of calling him the starter outright.

“(Voit) certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in,” said Boone. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

At the very least, Voit’s late season performance has earned him a long look in Spring Training. I am forever skeptical when it comes to 27-year-old rookies, especially when they’re right-handed hitting first basemen, but the Yankees owe it to themselves to find out whether Voit is a late bloomer a la Nelson Cruz and Jesus Aguilar, you know?

As for Bird, who knows? He’s now into his arbitration years and the idea that he’ll be a left-handed hitting complement to the right-handed Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez is fading with each injury. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him wrestle the first base job way from Voit at some point next year. We’ve seen Bird do some great things. Not often enough, but we’ve seen flashes.

Given the lack of rumors to date, the Yankees seem to believe they’re set at first base with Voit and Bird. Mike Ford and Ryan McBroom are the Triple-A first base depth and both were just passed over in the Rule 5 Draft, so the rest of MLB doesn’t view them highly. Voit and Bird it is. Three things about this.

1. There’s only room on the roster for one of these guys. A Voit/Bird platoon isn’t going to happen. I mean, it might, but probably not. The Yankees have fully embraced the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench lifestyle and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a first base only guy doesn’t make much sense, especially since the other first baseman is another first base only guy. It really limits roster flexibility.

2. Adding a first baseman at the deadline should be easy. There are always more first base types than roster spots. Last offseason we saw Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, and others wait until Spring Training started to sign. I’m sure others are facing the same fate this offseason. Here’s a quick list of potential first base trade deadline targets on rebuilding teams:

  • Blue Jays: Justin Smoak
  • Orioles: Mark Trumbo
  • White Sox: Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso

The Brewers aren’t rebuilding but we should include Eric Thames in here seeing how he’s stuck behind Aguilar and also Ryan Braun, who’s started playing first base. Thames as well as everyone listed above would be a rental pickup. No contract obligations beyond 2019. If necessary, the Yankees shouldn’t have much trouble finding a first baseman at the deadline, at least in theory.

3. The Yankees have offense to spare. Even with the relatively unproven Voit at first base and Tyler Wade penciled in as Sir Didi’s replacement, FanGraphs projects the 2019 Yankees as the second highest scoring team in baseball. The run prevention is expected to improve next year with J.A. Happ and James Paxton replacing Sonny Gray and the fifth starter parade, so, in theory, the Yankees can roll the dice at first base.

I don’t love this line of thinking, but the Yankees are in position to try Voit and Bird at first base, and see what happens. Maybe Voit is actually the next Cruz or Aguilar. Or maybe Bird manages to stay healthy and hit. If it happens, great. If not, well, the Yankees have enough offense to get by, and there should be plenty of first base options available in July. Point is, the Yankees can afford to be patient.

* * *

This current free agent class is really thin on first base help and that probably helped convince the Yankees to commit to Voit and Bird. The best free agent first baseman on the market this winter was probably Steve Pearce. Had Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt or Matt Carpenter or someone like that been a free agent this offseason, I imagine we would’ve heard much more about the Yankees looking for an upgrade at first base.

Instead, the free agent market is mostly barren, and Voit hit well enough (more than well enough, really) this past season to buy himself another look next year. The Yankees were in this same spot with Bird a few years ago, right? He performed well late in 2015 and it was enough to convince the Yankees they didn’t need to import first base and DH depth behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Bird was the guy. That didn’t work out, unfortunately.

First base has been a black hole in the Bronx since 2015. From 2016-18, the Yankees received a .230/.306/.426 (95 wRC+) line from their first basemen. Among the 30 teams that ranks 28th/26th/25th (26th). First base has been a real problem since Teixeira’s (and Bird’s) last good season in 2015. And yet, the Yankees seem content to go into next season with Voit and Bird at the position. There have been very few first base rumors this winter.

Sitting out the first base market this offseason could very well — and very quickly — prove to be a mistake. I would stop short of calling it a potential colossal mistake because there is always first base help available, but the Yankees are taking a bit of a risk here. They’re using their resources (payroll space, trade chips, etc.) to address other needs and winging it at first base. There’s still plenty of time to make a move, but right now, Voit and Bird are the answer.

The First Base Godsend [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

First base has been a glaring weakness for the Yankees over the last three seasons. Mark Teixeira had his last great season in 2015 — he hit .255/.357/.548 (143 wRC+) with 31 homers in 111 games that year — and Greg Bird helped picked up the slack after Teixeira went down with his shin injury that August. That was the last great year at first base in the Bronx.

From 2016-18, the Yankees had 20 (!) different players play at least one game at first base, two more than any other team. Among those 20 first basemen are Dustin Ackley, Billy Butler, Chris Parmelee, and pitcher Bryan Mitchell. The Yankees really scraped the bottom of the barrel, eh? Here are New York’s first base ranks the last three years:

  • AVG: .230 (28th in MLB)
  • OBP: .306 (26th)
  • SLG: .426 (25th)
  • wRC+: 95 (26th)
  • WAR: +1.9 (27th)

That is turrible. The league average first baseman hit .259/.339/.459 (112 wRC+) the last three years. Yankees’ first basemen hit like 2018 Ian Desmond (.236/.307/.422) in almost 2,000 plate appearances during that time. This season their first basemen hit .234/.309/.453 (104 wRC+), which is only slightly better than their aggregate 2016-18 output. First base has been a black hole since Teixeira.

Bird was expected to man first base this past season but that didn’t work out. He got hurt and didn’t hit when healthy. Backup plan Neil Walker didn’t fare well in part-time duty. Tyler Austin had his moments early in the season, for sure, but his production slipped in May and he was traded in July. The Yankees even had Brandon Drury start two games at first base as they looked for a solution.

Enter Luke Voit. Voit effectively replaced Austin as the depth right-handed hitting first baseman — Voit has minor league options remaining beyond 2018 whereas Austin did not, which was a factor in the swap — and he became much more than a depth pickup. Voit took over as the everyday first baseman in late August and hit .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) with 14 homers in 148 plate appearances in pinstripes. What a shot in the arm. Let’s review Voit’s season.

Finding Voit

“He was somebody that was on our radar. Our analytics crew had noticed him early on, and so in a lot of our meetings last year he was someone that we coveted from St. Louis,” said Brian Cashman last month. “We finally matched up (at the deadline), but we had a lot of guys in the office … those guys were all pushing his name hard and brought it to me.”

The key words there: “last year.” The Yankees had Voit on their radar for some time. Cashman added the team’s analytics department zeroed in on Voit because he hit the ball really freaking hard. In 124 plate appearances with the Cardinals last year, Voit posted a 41.0% hard contact rate and a 7.2% soft contact rate, numbers that are Aaron Judge-ian. His exit velocity (91.3 mph) was quite strong as well.

Minor league Trackman data (i.e. Statcast) exists but it is not publicly available. MLB and the 30 teams keep it all in-house, which is a bummer, but I get it. Anyway, that information also contributed to the Yankees pursuing Voit. The Yankees saw that he was hitting the ball hard, hard enough to overcome his weak defense at the position at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, and the fact he’s on the light side of the platoon. He was worth a shot.

Prior to the trade Voit hit .299/.391/.500 (135 wRC+) with nine homers in 271 plate appearances at Triple-A, and had gone 2-for-11 (.182) with the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter crushed the ball this season and St. Louis didn’t have a need at first base. Carpenter’s excellence and the presence of Jose Martinez made Voit expendable, and the Yankees pounced. On July 28th, the Yankees sent Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos to the Cardinals for Voit and international bonus money.

The Wally Pipping of Greg Bird

On one hand, the Yankees stuck with Greg Bird way too long this year. He hit .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) in 311 plate appearances. Awful. Just awful. On the other hand, if the Yankees hadn’t stuck with Bird that long, they might not have ended up with Voit, and may’ve been worse off overall because they replaced Bird with someone else at midseason. The Yankees initially stuck with Bird after the Voit trade too. Voit went right to Triple-A after the trade. He then resurfaced for a quick five-game cameo in early August before heading back to Triple-A.

In the first three and a half weeks after the trade, Voit played five games with the Yankees (3-for-16) and nine games with Triple-A Scranton (9-for-29). Aaron Judge (wrist) and Gary Sanchez (groin) were on the disabled list and had been since prior to the trade deadline, and I was Mad Online the Yankees didn’t do more than add Luke Voit.

Shows what I know. Voit rejoined the Yankees for good in late August, when they went to Miami for a two-game interleague series and wanted an extra bench bat for the National League games. The Legend of Luke Voit began in earnest on August 24th, in the first game of a four-game weekend series in Baltimore. Voit went 3-for-5 with two homers that night. Two days later, he hit another homer. Four days after that, another homer. Two days later Voit started a streak in which he went deep in three consecutive games.

It wasn’t just the homers either. Voit played 16 games from August 24th through September 9th and he went hitless in only four of those games. One of the four was an 0-for-1 pinch-hitting appearance. Another was an 0-for-1 with two walks game. The dingers and the raw production gave Voit the first base job outright in September and he finished the season with a flourish. He went 4-for-4 with two homers against the Red Sox on September 19th. From that day on, he went 18-for-43 (.419) with seven homers in his final eleven games of the regular season.

Voit played with a ton of energy and he was, by no small margin, the most productive hitter traded at the deadline. By the end of the season he was taking regular turns as the No. 3 hitter between Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Voit of course started the AL Wild Card Game and of course had a hand in the win, driving in two insurance runs with a sixth inning triple that damn near left the ballpark.

That was a nine-pitch at-bat against Blake Treinen, who had an absurd season and held right-handed batters to a .123/.206/.166 (.171 wOBA) batting line with a 36.0% strikeout rate. Voit fouled away three two-strike pitches until Treinen make a mistake with the slider, and he punished it. His folk hero status had been cemented. We’ve seen plenty of guys do great things in small samples during the regular season (Shelley Duncan, anyone?). Have a moment like that in October though, and it’s hard for the fans to forget you.

Is This Sustainable?

“This is sustainable. He could be a really good hitter in this league,” said Aaron Boone in September. Cashman gave a more diplomatic “hard to answer on (the) sample size” answer when asked whether Voit is legit. I’ll say this much: I don’t expect Voit to repeat his .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) effort going forward. Almost no one does that. Super early 2019 projections have him at .262/.336/.459 (115 wRC+) next year, for what it’s worth.

Voit’s post-trade production was not a fluke. Not a fluke in the sense that he played way over his head. Voit punished the ball with the Yankees and was rewarded appropriately. A total of 336 hitters put at least 50 balls in play after the trade deadline. Voit’s ranks among those 336 hitters:

  • Exit Velocity: 93.0 mph (sixth highest)
  • wOBA: .458 (third highest behind Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts)
  • Expected wOBA: .450 (second highest behind Yelich)

Voit had a 47.3% hard contact rate and a 34.4% ground ball rate with the Yankees. He crushed the ball and he got it airborne. Do that and good things tend to happen, and good things sure happened when Voit was at the plate for the Yankees. His xwOBA, which is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that, was right in line with his actual wOBA. Voit was rewarded for the contact he made. He wasn’t living off bloops and grounders with eyes.

Given his statistical track record, Voit’s ability to hit the ball extremely hard is very real. Say what you want about exit velocity — I know I’m tired of hearing about it after every batted ball — but you can’t fake it. You can either hit the ball that hard consistently or you can’t. Voit can. He showed the ability to go the other way — his 20.4% opposite field rate with the Yankees was lower than I would’ve guessed — and work counts. They were professional at-bats, as broadcasters like to say.

There are two things working against Voit going forward. One, he put up the bulk of those numbers in September, and September has a way of playing tricks on you. Call-ups and teams with nothing to play for — there are a lot of teams with nothing to play for late in the season these days — can skew numbers. And two, Voit won’t catch teams by surprise next year. They’re going to make adjustments and he’ll have to adjust back.

In fact, it’s already happening. The Red Sox attacked Voit with high-velocity right-handed fastballs whenever possible in the ALDS, and for good reason. They give him fits. Here are some numbers, with the MLB averages for right-handed hitters vs. right-handed pitchers in parentheses:

AVG ISO xwOBA Whiffs-per-Swings
Voit vs. all RHB fastballs .276 (.259) .483 (.195) .558 (.348) 32.4% (21.2%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs <95 mph .462 (.275) .846 (.226) .800 (.373) 16.7% (18.5%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs =>95 mph .154 (.236) .231 (.144) .377 (.309) 45.5% (24.9%)

Voit’s time with the Yankees was a small sample size to start with. Only 148 plate appearances. Now we’re slicing and dicing it even more, so take this all with a giant grain of salt. Right now, all we know is that in his limited time with the Yankees, Voit hammered right-handed fastballs below 94 mph and struggled to make contact against right-handed fastballs at 95 mph and above. Moreso than the typical righty hitter. Hence the Red Sox pounding him with righty heaters in the ALDS, and his 3-for-13 (.231) showing with zero extra-base hits.

Point is, Voit hits the ball really hard and that is a skill you can not teach. He has it and it drew the Yankees to him. Whether he can remain productive outside the pathological liar that is September and once the league adjusts to him remains to be seen. His performance this past season happened and it helped the Yankees win games. There’s no taking it away. The tools are there for Voit to remain productive going forward. Perhaps not that productive, but productive. Now it’s up to him to do it.

What’s Next?

Both Cashman and Boone stopped short of naming Voit the 2019 starting first baseman during their end-of-season press conferences, which makes sense. No need to declare an uncertain position settled before the offseason. “He certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in. I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels,” Boone said.

At the very least, Voit earned a chance to win a big league job in Spring Training. He’s a late-bloomer — Voit turns 28 in February — and the Yankees owe it to themselves to find out whether Voit can be their late-bloomer. Their Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar. Cruz didn’t get his first opportunity as an everyday big leaguer until his age 28 season. Ditto Aguilar. These defensive challenged right-handed bats can get written off quickly. Every so often they surprise.

There is a lot of offseason left to go and, even though pitching and a Didi Gregorius replacement are the top priorities, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yankees bring in another first baseman. Maybe they’ll go big and trade for Paul Goldschmidt. That’d be cool. Or perhaps they’ll opt for a lower cost pickup to compete with Voit (and Bird?) in Spring Training. Either way, Voit was awesome this year and I expect him to get a chance to prove he can do it against next year.

The Yankees have questions all around their infield heading into the 2018-19 offseason

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(Getty)

Although the 2018 season had a (very) disappointing ending, it is exciting to look at the Yankees and know they are loaded with young talent for the future. Aaron Judge is a superstar through and through. He’s a top ten player in baseball. Then there’s Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar. Most teams hope to have two guys like that on their roster. The Yankees have all of them.

And yet, going into the 2018-19 offseason, the Yankees are facing some very real questions all around the infield. As recently as June or July it looked like the Yankees were set long-term around the horn, with a young and productive player at all four infield positions. Now, in October, that isn’t really the case. That isn’t to say the Yankees are in bad shape on the infield, because they’re not, but things are a little up in the air. Let’s take a trip through the infield.

First Base

Since Opening Day 2016 the Yankees have received a .234/.314/.403 (91 wRC+) batting line and +1.9 WAR from their first basemen. Among the 30 teams they rank 26th in AVG, 23rd in OBP, 29th in SLG, 29th in wRC+, and 27th in WAR. Gross. Even with the first base cast of characters combining for 34 home runs (!) in 2018, first base has been wasteland since Mark Teixeira’s last good season in 2015.

Right now, it is fair to wonder whether Luke Voit is legit, whether Greg Bird is salvageable, and whether Miguel Andujar is going to wind up at first base. The Yankees love Bird and I’m certain that if you gave Brian Cashman & Co. a truth serum, they’d say they want Bird to grab the job and run with it next year. I would like that too. Bird has power and patience, at least when healthy, and the Yankees could use another left-handed bat.

“We’ll see how the offseason unfolds, but right now, he grabbed that job, no question about that,” Aaron Boone said of Voit at his end-of-season press conference. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

Honestly, I feel like nothing that happens with first base this offseason would surprise me. Stick with Voit? I could buy it. At the very least, he has to be given every opportunity to win a roster spot in Spring Training, right? Right. Stick with Bird? I could see that too. Trade for Paul Goldschmidt? Trade for someone else? I could totally see it. Sign Bryce Harper and put him at first? Eh, that’s a stretch. Point is, first base remains unsettled, even after Voit’s late-season showing.

“In some ways, (Bird) never got all the way back physically to, I think, where he’ll be next year,” added Boone. “I think there’s a realistic chance he comes into Spring Training next year, physically in a really good place with a chance of a normal offseason where he gets his body where he wants it. Hopefully the results from that will follow. He’ll have his opportunities. We’ve never lost sight of the fact that when he’s right, can really hit.”

Second Base & Shortstop

Gleyber. (Getty)

These two positions are tied together because Torres is going to play one of them next year. We just don’t know which one. Gleyber’s a stud, man. A 21-year-old kid hitting .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) with 24 home runs as a middle infielder thrown into a pennant race as a rookie is awfully impressive. Torres is a stud and I think we’re no more than two years away from him emerging as the Yankees’ best player. Not because Judge will collapse or anything. Just because Torres is that damn good.

The problem here is Didi Gregorius. He had Tommy John surgery yesterday. He’s expected to return sometime next summer but no one really knows when. Could be as early as May or June, or as late as August or September. The Yankees have to proceed as if they won’t have Gregorius next year. Although Tommy John surgery is fairly routine, it is a major surgery, and there could be setbacks or a slower than expected recovery. It happens and the Yankees have to be prepared for it.

Gleyber is a natural shortstop — I thought he looked way smoother at short this season than second base — and his flexibility allows the Yankees to replace Gregorius with either a shortstop or second baseman. I’d prefer adding another shortstop and leaving Torres at second, but, if the market cranks out better options at second base, then Gleyber moves over. The only question then is who is the backup shortstop? You’d have to dedicate a bench spot — only of three bench spots since the eight-man bullpen seems to be here to stay — to a shortstop capable infielder.

We know this much about second base and shortstop: One of these two positions is set. Torres will play one. Cashman said they’ll scour the offseason market for a player at the other position “whether it’s an everyday player or an insurance policy.” In a weird way, Torres is the most “sure thing” among Yankees infielders at the moment, and we don’t even know whether he’s playing second or short next year. We just know he’ll be there. Hmmm.

Third Base

By OPS+, Andujar just had one of the three best seasons by a rookie third baseman in the last 30 years. Kris Bryant (135 OPS+) is kinda out there in his own little world, but Andujar (126 OPS+) is right there with Evan Longoria (127 OPS+). Those are the only three rookie third basemen to best a 125 OPS+ since Kevin Seitzer back in 1987. Andujar had an incredible rookie season.

By WAR, Andujar had only the 16th best season by a rookie third basemen over the last 30 years. His +2.2 WAR puts him alongside guys like Gordon Beckham (+2.1 WAR), Akinora Iwamura (+2.2 WAR), and Garrett Atkins (+2.3 WAR). That’s how much value Andujar gave back with his glove. He had one of the best offensive seasons by a rookie third basemen in three decades and was still run of the mill in terms of overall value.

Miggy Mantle. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

The Yankees told use exactly what they think about Andujar’s defense. They subbed him out in the sixth inning (!) for defense in the postseason. When it mattered most, the Yankees didn’t trust Andujar in the field, and I don’t really blame them. Range is a clear issue, and while Andujar has a strong arm, it plays down because his transfer is slow and his sidearm sling can cause the ball to sail wide of first.

“He made big strides this season. He has the athleticism, he has the hands and the arm strength. Preparation for the pitch and footwork are gonna determine if he becomes that frontline defender at third base. I do believe it is in there,” Boone said. “This winter is important for him as far as that goes. When I got here, there were all kinds of questions. He earned his at-bats with the way he swung the bat, but also by improving as much as he did defensively. Now it’s on all of us (to help him get better).”

For what it’s worth, earlier this week Cashman said during a radio interview that he expects Andujar to be the team’s third baseman next season. Of course he’s going to say that, right? The Yankees could be planning — and already enacting — a position change and they would still say they want Andujar at third base because it allows them to maintain leverage during trade and free agent talks.

I am weirdly ambivalent about Andujar’s defensive home next season. If the Yankees decide to keep him at third base for another season and let him work at it, I’m cool with it. And if the Yankees decide to move him to first base or left field (or DH), I’d be cool with that too. Ryan Braun had a great rookie year overall but was a defensive disaster, so he was moved to left field the next season. Could happen with Andujar!

Maybe this is a fluid situation. The Yankees might be planning to put Andujar at third base next season, but, if a better option comes along (trade for Nolan Arenado?), they’ll move him. Otherwise they’ll stick with it at least until Gregorius returns, then they can reevaluate their infield situation and figure out the best alignment. It could be that whoever replaces Didi plays well enough to stay in the lineup everyday, pushing Andujar somewhere else. We’ll see.

* * *

The good news is the Yankees are not devoid of infield talent. There are worse things in baseball than having Miguel Andujar as your starting third baseman, you know? Torres is a stud. Voit raked this year — maybe he is the Yankees’ Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar? that late bloomer who finds it in his late 20s? — and Bird could still maybe be something. They have to replace Gregorius at least temporarily, for sure. A Didi replacement is a “must have” this winter.

At the same time, Voit may be more Shane Spencer than Cruz or Aguilar, and play his way to Triple-A. Andujar could struggle defensively again. I don’t see how you could count on Bird for anything. The Yankees don’t necessarily have an infield problem. They just have some things to sort out. Is Andujar the long-term answer at third? Is it time to bring in a veteran first baseman to stop the post-Teixeira revolving door? Who steps in for Gregorius? Those are all questions the Yanks will answer this winter.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

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(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Thanks to good health and new additions, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they have all year

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(Getty)

For all intents and purposes, the AL East race ended in early August. The Yankees went up to Boston, got swept in four games — they were outscored 28-13 in the four games — and fell 9.5 games behind the Red Sox. That was it. The Yankees never again drew closer than six games behind Boston. The Red Sox took care of business that series and were able to coast the rest of the way.

Starting tomorrow though, the slate will be wiped clean, and the Yankees and Red Sox will go into the ALDS on a level playing field. No deficit to make up in the standings. First to three wins moves on to the ALCS. Given how close these teams usually play — even with that four-game sweep, the Red Sox only won the season series 10-9 — it would not surprise me at all if the ALDS goes the full five games.

The Yankees team going into the ALDS is much different than the Yankees team that was swept in that four-game series in August. The Yankees went into that series shorthanded. I’m not making excuses. The Yankees had enough talent to win and didn’t do it. They played terribly. But the fact of the matter is they were not at full strength. Consider:

  • Aaron Judge had just been placed on the disabled list with his wrist fracture.
  • Gary Sanchez was on the disabled list with his second groin strain.
  • J.A. Happ was on the disabled list with hand, foot, and mouth disease.

Given Luis Severino’s second half struggles, you could argue the Yankees went into that series without their best starting pitcher. (Chance Adams had to fill in, which he did admirably.) The Yankees definitely went into that series without their best hitter. And while Sanchez had a terrible season, he tends to rake in Fenway Park, and the Yankees were without him as well.

When the ALDS opens tomorrow night, the Yankees will have Judge and Sanchez in the lineup, and chances are Happ will be on the mound in Game One. Furthermore, Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit will be in the lineup. McCutchen was not a Yankees when these two clubs met in August. Voit was a Yankee and he did appear in two games in that series, but he was still Luke Voit and not American Hero Luke Voit at the time.

The Red Sox have a left-handed heavy pitching staff — Chris Sale and David Price are starting Games One and Two, the club announced — and the Yankees will now have four premium righty bats in the lineup that they did not have in August. Three if you’re really down on Sanchez. McCutchen replaces Brett Gardner, Judge replaces the Neil Walker/Shane Robertson platoon, and Voit replaces Greg Bird. Considerable upgrades all around.

I should note this goes beyond platoon matchups as well. McCutchen, Judge, and Voit all mash left-handed pitchers — Sanchez does as well, he had a .229/.354/.518 (136 wRC+) line against southpaws this season — but they’re also better against righties than the guys they replaced. McCutchen’s a much better hitter than Gardner. An inferior defender? Yes, but the decline in defense is more than made up by the increase in offense. Going from Walker/Robinson and Bird to Judge and Voit is just a massive upgrade. Massive.

The Yankees will also have Happ on the mound, presumably in Game One but also possibly in Game Two. Happ is one of the few starting pitchers who consistently pitched well against the Red Sox this year. Just last week he carved them up for five innings before giving up what amounted to a garbage time grand slam to Steve Pearce in the sixth inning. Happ made four starts against Boston this year and three times he allowed no more than one earned run.

Four times in six September games the Yankees beat the Red Sox, and while that feels good, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. The BoSox had nothing on the line in any of those games, especially in that final weekend, and they never really seemed to give the Yankees (or anyone) their best effort in September. They earned that. They had a huge division lead and were able to rest their regulars and audition others for the postseason roster down the stretch.

These two teams last played a meaningful series in August, in that four-game sweep, and the team the Yankees take into the ALDS is going to look much different than the team they sent to Fenway Park in August. McCutchen and Voit are big upgrades over Gardner and Voit, Happ is healthy, Judge is healthy, and Sanchez is healthy too. Right now, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they did at any other point in 2018.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

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(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.