Archive for Mariano Rivera

Via Bryan Hoch, there is still no date set for Mariano Rivera‘s knee surgery. He’s still getting treatment and therapy for the blood clot in his right calf, and doctors want him to strengthen the knee before going in and repairing his torn right ACL. For what it’s worth, Mat Gamel of the Brewers torn his ACL a few days before Rivera but did not have surgery until today. Apparently waiting a few weeks for the swelling to go down and stuff is common with this kind of injury. Hopefully they can get Mo fixed up within a month so he can begin the rehab process.

Categories : Asides, Injuries
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Kind of a long mailbag this week, with five questions that cover everything from trade candidates to prospects to historical comparisons. Remember to use the Submit a Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.

(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Peter asks: Mike, you wrote up Jake Peavy as a trade candidate on MLBTR a few weeks ago. Do you see the Yanks possibly targeting him in July? If so, what’s a fair price?

Here’s the link to that MLBTR post. Peavy, 30, has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball this season, pitching to a 1.89 ERA (2.22 FIP) with 7.57 K/9 (22.6 K%) and 1.20 BB/9 (3.6 BB%) in 52.1 IP across seven starts. He’s been absolutely phenomenal, no doubt about it, but there are still some red flags.

For one, Peavy’s recent injury history is quite scary. He’s been on the DL five times in the last four years, including lengthy stints for an elbow strain (2009), an ankle strain (2009), shoulder surgery (2010), and shoulder inflammation (2011). The shoulder surgery was not a typical labrum or rotator cuff issue, he torn his right lat muscle right off the bone. The injury is  rare and the medical procedure so unique that the recovery timetable was completely unknown. Peavy is showing now that he’s healthy, but the injury stuff has to be in the back of everyone’s mind.

Statistically there’s not much to worry about. He’s always been a fly ball pitcher but now he’s taken it to the extreme, with a 28.7% ground ball rate on the season. That explains his .234 BABIP to a certain extent and even though not every fly ball is hit deep, you have to assume his 2.8% HF/FB rate is going to correct at some point. That’s insanely low. Peavy’s salary — $17M this year with a $22M option for 2012 ($4M buyout) — is quite high as well.. I mentioned Erik Bedard as a trade comp in the MLBTR post, meaning one top-ten prospect (in a farm system, not all of baseball) and another Grade-C secondary piece could work as a trade bounty. The Yankees could have interest, and thankfully we have a few months to see if Peavy holds up physically and can maintain his performance before the deadline.

Willie and many others asked: Is it time to start getting a little excited about Ronnie Mustelier?

(Rudy C. Jones/MiLB.com)

I was surprised by how many people asked about Mustelier following his promotion to Triple-A earlier this week. We must have gotten at least ten questions about him, but I guess that’s what happens when a player hits .351/.397/.550 in 295 plate appearances since signing last summer.

Just some real quick background info: Mustelier is 27 years old (28 in August), short (5-foot-10), kinda fat (210 lbs.), a right-handed hitter, and versatile (has played second, third, and the outfield corners). He spent a number of years playing in Cuba before defecting, and as a hitter he makes consistent contact (13.2 K%) but doesn’t walk much (6.4 BB%) or steal bases (12-for-18). The Yankees like Mustelier enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League last year, where he hit .344/.354/.516 in 16 games while missing time with injury. Here’s some video.

The most important thing to understand is that Mustelier has been very old for his level since signing. This is an older guy pounding young pitchers and that can skew the results. The Yankees have done a good job getting him to Triple-A quickly so they can evaluate him against the best pitching in the minors, though I wouldn’t expect to see him in the big leagues anytime soon. Baseball America didn’t even have Mustelier on their 80-player Yankees prospect depth chart in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, so there’s a whole lot of unknown here. His versatility is a plus, but we need to see another few hundred minor league at-bats to know if there’s anything worthwhile here.

Arad asks: Had this argument with my brother, who is the better player over their careers using everything, Jeter or Honus Wagner? Thanks Mike!

Wagner is the greatest shortstop in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Obviously it was a much different era, but he hit .325/.392/.462 during his 16-year career despite not officially joining the big leagues until age-27. That’s worth 110.0 bWAR and only one other shortstop is over even 75 career bWAR (Cal Ripken Jr. at 90.9). Jeter is at 69.4 bWAR and counting. No version of WAR is perfect, but the gap between Wagner and everyone else is impossible to ignore.

Jeter is very clearly the best shortstop in Yankees history and is in the conversation for a top five spot all-time with Wagner, Ripken, Ozzie Smith, Arky Vaughan, and Luke Appling. Robin Yount and Alex Rodriguez deserve acknowledgement as well, though they both spent significant portions of their careers at other positions. Wagner’s the best shortstop ever though, very hard to dispute that.

(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

Alex asks: Mike, I read all the pieces you wrote about Mark Teixeira. One thing, which you addressed, slightly still interests me. Since Tex is a switch hitter, it seems like hitting righties from the right side is out of the question. But isn’t everyone a “switch hitter” to a degree? I bet A-Rod could turn around and produce a poor line from the left as well. Has any switch hitter ever became a one-side hitter? Will it hurt to try?

Here are those three posts on Teixeira (part one, two, three, four). I don’t know of any players who successfully dropped switch-hitting this late in their careers. Lots of guys stop switch-hitting in the minors, including Frankie Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez, but that’s very early in their careers. A lot of players mess around with switch-hitting in batting practice and may be able to survive on athleticism in a game situation, but I’d put money against it.

Teixeira’s been switch-hitting his entire life, going all the way back to high school. The guy has never been at the platoon disadvantage at a high level and he’s never seen a breaking ball that breaks away from him. If he were to stop hitting from the left side, he wouldn’t magically replicate his performance against lefties as a righty (.397 wOBA) as a righty against righties. If Teixeira’s offensive problems become so severe that dropping switch-hitting is being seriously discussed, it’s a transition that would have occur during the offseason and in Spring Training. I don’t see any way you could ask him to do that midseason and be productive. You’re setting him up for failure both short and long-term that way.

Jon asks: I literally got physically ill when I heard about Mariano Rivera‘s torn ACL. The question is does Mo fit into the new budget? Do they bring him back next year at $10-15 million if it costs them Cole Hamels?

Well the new budget doesn’t kick in until 2014 unless ownership decides to implement next season. That would suck. I can’t imagine any scenario in which Rivera gets a two-year contract after this season, not at his age and not coming off a major injury. In that sense they could pay him whatever and still sign Hamels knowing that Rivera and his salary will be gone in 2014, when the payroll tightens up. It would be a major surprise if Mo’s next contract somehow extends beyond next season.

I am curious to see how negotiations with Rivera play out this winter. Are the Yankees going to pay him the $15M+ next year just because he’s Mariano Rivera? Or will they try to scale it back a bit, maybe $10-12M given his age and injury? Considering that they offered Andy Pettitte eight figures this past December after he sat at home for a year, I’m willing to bet they’ll have no problem paying Mo something similar to, if not in excess of his current salary.

Categories : Mailbag
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We have finally learned the nature of Mariano’s complication, to which his agent cryptically referred yesterday. Via basically every beat writer, he has a blood clot in his right calf. He stayed overnight in the hospital to get it taken care of, and is on blood thinners currently. This doesn’t change much in the long run; it just pushes back his surgery date a bit.

In other news, Mo revealed that he was leaning towards coming back in 2013, even before the injury. So much for all his actions being those of a man set on retirement.

Categories : Asides
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May
09

The New Bullpen Era

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(REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine)

For the first time in 15 years, the Yankees have someone other than Mariano Rivera closing the door in the ninth inning. The Sandman tore his right ACL shagging fly balls before last Thursday’s game, thrusting David Robertson into the closer’s role on a full-time basis. As we saw last night, things are going to be very different at the end of the game going forward.

As he usually does, Robertson created a bit of a mess against the Rays on Tuesday before striking his way out of the jam to secure the win. It’s what he does, make jams so he can pitch his way out of them. Unfortunately, that act is far less enjoyable in the ninth inning than at any other point of the game. If Robertson can’t wiggle his way out of trouble and a run(s) scores, the Yankees now have three outs to respond. That’s it. If he does the same in the eighth, they’ll have six outs to recover. Not much, but better than three. The margin for error is tiny.

This probably sounds stupid given how things turned out, but I thought last night’s game was a perfect example of why I believe that at the very least, Joe Girardi needs to be a little more flexible in the late innings. The Yankees were up two runs going into the eighth, but the top of the order was due up. That’s a pretty good spot to use Robertson given the degree of difficulty, allowing Soriano to finish the game against inferior hitters in the ninth. If the bottom of the order was due up in the eighth, then by all means go to Soriano. In a perfect world, you’d have Robertson pitch to the toughest batters.

Obviously pulling that off is much easier said than done. Pitchers do like knowing their specific role/inning and bouncing them around could have some negative impact. Might be a lot, might be negligible. Who knows. Girardi can play coy all he wants, but we know that Robertson will be his man in the ninth inning going forward. He’s certainly earned it and I’m not going to ding the manager for marrying relievers to specific innings when literally every other manager in baseball does it. This isn’t just a Girardi thing, but it will be more noticeable with Rivera on the shelf.

“What I think is Mo probably would have thrown 12 pitches, broke a bat and we would have been gone 20 minutes ago,” joked Robertson following last night’s game, though there is some truth there. We’ve been spoiled by Mariano’s stress (and walk) free ninth innings for a baseball lifetime, and we’re going to be in for a serious culture shock over these next six months or so. I have full confidence in Robertson doing the job, but he is going to test our patience and raise our blood pressure along the way. This is a new era of Yankees baseball, and to be quite honest, it makes me nervous.

Categories : Death by Bullpen
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Update (10:38 a.m.): ESPN’s Buster Olney has a source who says that these complications “will have no bearing on Mariano Rivera‘s ability to come back from his ACL injury.” And exhale.

9:24 a.m.: This does not sound good. Yesterday Mariano Rivera met with a pair of doctors to determine the course of action for surgery to repair his torn ACL. Unfortunately, they were not able to do so. “We ran into complications,” Rivera’s agent, Fernando Cuza, told the NY Post. “I am referring to Dr. Ahmad and Brian Cashman for further information.” For what it’s worth, ESPN NY’s Andrew Marchand spoke with a “high-ranking team official” who said the complications are not serious. We’ll keep you updated when further information becomes available.

Categories : Asides
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May
07

The Mariano Rivera Fact Sheet

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Forgive the self-promotion, but I wrote this FanGraphs post about Mariano Rivera today. It’s basically just a list of facts about the greatest reliever ever, most of them weird and interesting and not the typical banter. At least I hope so. Check it out.

 

Categories : Asides
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Via Pete Caldera, the Yankees are going to recall outfielder Dewayne Wise from Triple-A. He’s on his way to Kansas City and may even already be there. I assume Mariano Rivera was placed on the 15-day DL to clear a roster spot for Wise while either Michael Pineda or Cesar Cabral was transferred to the 60-day DL to open a 40-man roster.

Wise, 34, posted a .459 wOBA in 19 Triple-A games but hitting his not his forte. He’s a defensive stud capable of manning all three outfield spots with aplomb. Nick Swisher took batting practice on the field today according to Erik Boland, but perhaps the Wise move indicates that Swisher’s hamstring is still giving him a problem. He got hurt last Sunday and the Yankees have been playing with a short bench ever since.

Update (4:39pm): Via Boland, right-hander Cody Eppley has been recalled as well. That makes me think Swisher might be headed to the DL.

Update (5:41pm): The Yankees announced that right-hander D.J. Mitchell was optioned back to Triple-A, so Swisher avoids the DL. Pineda was transferred to the 60-day DL to clear a 40-man spot for Wise. Just to quickly recap: Wise and Eppley up, Mitchell down, and Mo to the DL.

Categories : Asides, Transactions
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May
04

Mariano: “I’m coming back”

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Finally, some good news for a change. After tearing his right ACL shagging fly balls prior to last night’s game, Mariano Rivera showed up to the park today and told reporters that he will indeed return to the Yankees in 2013. The circumstances are unfortunate, but this is the best news the team has gotten in quite some time.

Categories : Players
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Remember earlier this spring, when Mariano Rivera said he knew what the future held, but wasn’t revealing it? Those sure sounded like the words of a man who planned to retire after the season. But according to Reggie Jackson, that might not have been the case. He told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that Mariano was actually planning to pitch in 2013, reserving his decision only so he could ensure he remained at the top of his game. That is, the greatest of all time might have a few more rounds left in him, injury or not. Obviously he has a few obstacles to clear first — “We have to face this first,” he said last night — but we could see Rivera take the mound in the ninth inning a few more times before he decides to hang ‘em up.

Categories : Asides
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May
04

The end of the world as we Mo it

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(AP Photo/YES Network)

I can’t remember the last time baseball made me feel sad. Maybe it was in September 2008, when the old Yankee Stadium closed. I remember walking out of that place with a pit in my stomach knowing I would never get to go back there again. 1995 sucked, 2001 sucked, and 2004 sucked, but I wasn’t sad. I was angry more than anything. Those were games though, the Yankees played and lost. It happens.

This … this was a freak accident. And that’s sad. It’s sad because I don’t know if I’m ever going to get to see Mariano Rivera pitch again. I’m not ready for this. I wasn’t even ready for him to hint at retirement in Spring Training and now you’re telling me his career could be over? That’s not fair. It’s not supposed to end like this. It’s supposed to end with Rivera throwing the final pitch in the World Series for the sixth time, with him pouring champagne on Derek Jeter and riding the last float down Canyon of Heroes. That’s the send off Rivera was supposed to get, not carried off the field following a freak accident.

After last night’s game, Mo said he wouldn’t change a thing. If he had a chance to do it over again, he still would have been out there shagging fly balls before the game. He’s been doing it his entire professional life and it’s part of what makes him so great. Rivera wasn’t just the greatest relief pitcher the game has ever known, he was the best athlete on the team and if they stuck him in center field, he’s run everything down from gap to gap. He was extraordinary at everything he did, including shagging fly balls.

I’ve been stuck in the fourth stage of The Five Stages of Grief since I went to bed last night. I denied it at first. “He’ll be fine, he was smiling as he was being carted off the field,” I said to myself. Then I was mad. “Why the hell is he shagging fly balls anyway? That’s so stupid and dangerous!” Then I bargained and that stage is always the ugliest because it makes you desperate. “I’ll do anything for him to be okay, please! … Ewww, anything?”

Now I’m just depressed. It can’t end like this. Rivera deserves better, but I know he’s a deeply religious man. This could be a sign that it’s time for him to move onto the next phase of his life. Who knows? I don’t and I don’t think Mo does yet. That’s the worst part, the not knowing. Not knowing what the injury was, not knowing how severe it was, not knowing if he’ll ever play again. Maybe I’ll accept it at some point and complete the five stages, but right now that seems impossible. We all know Rivera was going to leave us eventually, but he wasn’t supposed to be ripped away from us like this.

This is a sad day. A sad day for me, a sad day for the Yankees, a sad day for Mariano, and a sad day for baseball. Yankeeland may never be the same.

Categories : Musings
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