Archive for Mark Teixeira
Injury News: Robertson, Tex, Gardner, Venditte
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(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Here are some injury updates courtesy of Chad Jennings, George King, and Brian Heyman…
- David Robertson (left oblique strain) played catch on Thursday and felt fine yesterday. He’s on a throwing program and will play catch again on Monday, though Brian Cashman confirmed that the right-hander will need some minor league rehab appearances and won’t be back before the end of the current road trip.
- Brett Gardner is still on track to swing a bat on Monday for the first time since his setback. An MRI earlier this week showed that the muscle in his right elbow has healed, but a few days ago he was still experiencing some stiffness.
- Mark Teixeira‘s cough is finally starting to subside and it’s part of the reason he got thrown out at third trying to stretch a double into a triple last night. He wouldn’t even have attempted it a few weeks ago because he had trouble breathing.
- Pat Venditte has a torn labrum in his right shoulder according to Steven Pivovar. He is currently rehabbing in Tampa and hopes to avoid surgery, but they’ll know if that’s possible in about two weeks. The ambidextrous Venditte had been pitching exclusively left-handed for a few weeks before hitting the DL.
Retaining hope for Mark Teixeira
Posted by: | CommentsWhile we’ve seen turnarounds after slow starts from Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano, we’ve yet to see the same from Mark Teixeira. While he doubled and hit a big two-run homer last night, his numbers are still middling, to be kind. Of the Yankee regulars only Russell Martin has a lower batting average. None has a lower OBP. This goes beyond the typical slow starts of Teixeira, which is certainly cause for concern.
There are few positives in Teixeira’s abnormally slow start to the season, but we can take solace in a few numbers. For starters, he’s not a true-talent .286 OBP or 83 OPS+, even if you believe that he’s in decline. His numbers have nowhere to go but up. He hasn’t been popping up balls with the propensity he has in the last two years; to date he has just three infield pop-ups. We can also look this his most recent four games: 6 for 16 with two doubles and a homer. He might already be in the midst of a turnaround.
Teixeira doesn’t need anyone making excuses for him. But at the same time it hasn’t been easy for him in the early goings. After last season he admitted to being a bit too pull happy, acknowledging that he needed to change his swing. Maybe he worked on that during the off-season into spring training. But all the cage work and BP in the world can’t replace the in-game work it takes to make such adjustments. At the same time, he’s been battling a nasty cold. Can you imagine having to cough while you’re waiting for a pitcher to deliver the ball?
It might take Teixeira some more time to get into the groove of things. But once he does, I expect big things. If his early season struggles truly are the results of a sick man trying to make adjustments to live pitching, then the best is yet to come. As we’ve seen in the past, that could provide an enormous improvement to the team’s offensive output.
Mailbag: Peavy, Mustelier, Jeter, Teixeira, Mo
Posted by: | CommentsKind of a long mailbag this week, with five questions that cover everything from trade candidates to prospects to historical comparisons. Remember to use the Submit a Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.
(AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Peter asks: Mike, you wrote up Jake Peavy as a trade candidate on MLBTR a few weeks ago. Do you see the Yanks possibly targeting him in July? If so, what’s a fair price?
Here’s the link to that MLBTR post. Peavy, 30, has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball this season, pitching to a 1.89 ERA (2.22 FIP) with 7.57 K/9 (22.6 K%) and 1.20 BB/9 (3.6 BB%) in 52.1 IP across seven starts. He’s been absolutely phenomenal, no doubt about it, but there are still some red flags.
For one, Peavy’s recent injury history is quite scary. He’s been on the DL five times in the last four years, including lengthy stints for an elbow strain (2009), an ankle strain (2009), shoulder surgery (2010), and shoulder inflammation (2011). The shoulder surgery was not a typical labrum or rotator cuff issue, he torn his right lat muscle right off the bone. The injury is rare and the medical procedure so unique that the recovery timetable was completely unknown. Peavy is showing now that he’s healthy, but the injury stuff has to be in the back of everyone’s mind.
Statistically there’s not much to worry about. He’s always been a fly ball pitcher but now he’s taken it to the extreme, with a 28.7% ground ball rate on the season. That explains his .234 BABIP to a certain extent and even though not every fly ball is hit deep, you have to assume his 2.8% HF/FB rate is going to correct at some point. That’s insanely low. Peavy’s salary — $17M this year with a $22M option for 2012 ($4M buyout) — is quite high as well.. I mentioned Erik Bedard as a trade comp in the MLBTR post, meaning one top-ten prospect (in a farm system, not all of baseball) and another Grade-C secondary piece could work as a trade bounty. The Yankees could have interest, and thankfully we have a few months to see if Peavy holds up physically and can maintain his performance before the deadline.
Willie and many others asked: Is it time to start getting a little excited about Ronnie Mustelier?
(Rudy C. Jones/MiLB.com)
I was surprised by how many people asked about Mustelier following his promotion to Triple-A earlier this week. We must have gotten at least ten questions about him, but I guess that’s what happens when a player hits .351/.397/.550 in 295 plate appearances since signing last summer.
Just some real quick background info: Mustelier is 27 years old (28 in August), short (5-foot-10), kinda fat (210 lbs.), a right-handed hitter, and versatile (has played second, third, and the outfield corners). He spent a number of years playing in Cuba before defecting, and as a hitter he makes consistent contact (13.2 K%) but doesn’t walk much (6.4 BB%) or steal bases (12-for-18). The Yankees like Mustelier enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League last year, where he hit .344/.354/.516 in 16 games while missing time with injury. Here’s some video.
The most important thing to understand is that Mustelier has been very old for his level since signing. This is an older guy pounding young pitchers and that can skew the results. The Yankees have done a good job getting him to Triple-A quickly so they can evaluate him against the best pitching in the minors, though I wouldn’t expect to see him in the big leagues anytime soon. Baseball America didn’t even have Mustelier on their 80-player Yankees prospect depth chart in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, so there’s a whole lot of unknown here. His versatility is a plus, but we need to see another few hundred minor league at-bats to know if there’s anything worthwhile here.
Arad asks: Had this argument with my brother, who is the better player over their careers using everything, Jeter or Honus Wagner? Thanks Mike!
Wagner is the greatest shortstop in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Obviously it was a much different era, but he hit .325/.392/.462 during his 16-year career despite not officially joining the big leagues until age-27. That’s worth 110.0 bWAR and only one other shortstop is over even 75 career bWAR (Cal Ripken Jr. at 90.9). Jeter is at 69.4 bWAR and counting. No version of WAR is perfect, but the gap between Wagner and everyone else is impossible to ignore.
Jeter is very clearly the best shortstop in Yankees history and is in the conversation for a top five spot all-time with Wagner, Ripken, Ozzie Smith, Arky Vaughan, and Luke Appling. Robin Yount and Alex Rodriguez deserve acknowledgement as well, though they both spent significant portions of their careers at other positions. Wagner’s the best shortstop ever though, very hard to dispute that.
(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
Alex asks: Mike, I read all the pieces you wrote about Mark Teixeira. One thing, which you addressed, slightly still interests me. Since Tex is a switch hitter, it seems like hitting righties from the right side is out of the question. But isn’t everyone a “switch hitter” to a degree? I bet A-Rod could turn around and produce a poor line from the left as well. Has any switch hitter ever became a one-side hitter? Will it hurt to try?
Here are those three posts on Teixeira (part one, two, three, four). I don’t know of any players who successfully dropped switch-hitting this late in their careers. Lots of guys stop switch-hitting in the minors, including Frankie Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez, but that’s very early in their careers. A lot of players mess around with switch-hitting in batting practice and may be able to survive on athleticism in a game situation, but I’d put money against it.
Teixeira’s been switch-hitting his entire life, going all the way back to high school. The guy has never been at the platoon disadvantage at a high level and he’s never seen a breaking ball that breaks away from him. If he were to stop hitting from the left side, he wouldn’t magically replicate his performance against lefties as a righty (.397 wOBA) as a righty against righties. If Teixeira’s offensive problems become so severe that dropping switch-hitting is being seriously discussed, it’s a transition that would have occur during the offseason and in Spring Training. I don’t see any way you could ask him to do that midseason and be productive. You’re setting him up for failure both short and long-term that way.
Jon asks: I literally got physically ill when I heard about Mariano Rivera‘s torn ACL. The question is does Mo fit into the new budget? Do they bring him back next year at $10-15 million if it costs them Cole Hamels?
Well the new budget doesn’t kick in until 2014 unless ownership decides to implement next season. That would suck. I can’t imagine any scenario in which Rivera gets a two-year contract after this season, not at his age and not coming off a major injury. In that sense they could pay him whatever and still sign Hamels knowing that Rivera and his salary will be gone in 2014, when the payroll tightens up. It would be a major surprise if Mo’s next contract somehow extends beyond next season.
I am curious to see how negotiations with Rivera play out this winter. Are the Yankees going to pay him the $15M+ next year just because he’s Mariano Rivera? Or will they try to scale it back a bit, maybe $10-12M given his age and injury? Considering that they offered Andy Pettitte eight figures this past December after he sat at home for a year, I’m willing to bet they’ll have no problem paying Mo something similar to, if not in excess of his current salary.
Missing: Mark Teixeira’s walks
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(Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Answer: Jerome Williams.
Question: Who was the last pitcher to walk Mark Teixeira?
It’s been 52 plate appearances since Teixeira last drew a walk, dating all the way back to the final game of the home-opener series against the Angels. He’d drawn five walks in his previous 38 plate appearances, a 13.2% walk rate that isn’t completely out of line with the 11.5% career walk rate he brought into the season. But since then, nothing. Tex hasn’t drawn a walk or even been hit by a pitch — something he’s quite good at, actually — since his plate appearance against Williams more than two full weeks ago.
Sample sizes are one of the biggest analytical dangers this early in the season, but swing and contact rates are the very first thing to stabilize. They only take 50-75 plate appearances to even out. Teixeira is at 90 plate appearances at the moment, so we can start to draw some conclusions from his swing tendencies and performance even though it’s still only April. Here’s a look at his swing and contact rates, courtesy of FanGraphs…
Right off the bat you can see that Teixeira is not only swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than ever before (30.5%), he’s also making more contact with those pitches as well (75.5%). That’s a great recipe for not drawing walks. His swing rate on pitches in the zone (60.5%) is pretty normal compared to recent years, though his contact rate on those offerings is a touch high (94.9%). That’s why Teixeira has struck out in just 11.1% of his plate appearances, a career-low by several percentage points.
We have an idea of why Teixeira hasn’t been drawing walks lately, but why has he been swinging at more pitches out of the zone? That’s not something we can answer here, it could be a countless number of different reasons. Maybe he’s pressing, maybe he’s swinging at more pitches on the outside corner in an effort to go the other way, or maybe it’s one of a million other things. Teixeira’s latest slump — 2-for-24 with no extra-base hits — has dragged his season line down to .229/.278/.386, so the lack of walks is just one piece of the problem. Plate discipline is the root of offensive performance, and right now Tex’s isn’t where it should be.
The Teixeira Analysis: Closing Thoughts
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Over the last three days I spend way too much time looking at Mark Teixeira‘s declining offensive production — part one, part two, and part three. To save you the headache of readhing, here’s a quick recap of the findings…
- Teixeira is still a monster as a right-handed hitter. Nothing’s changed from that side of the plate in recent years.
- Teixeira’s walk, strikeout, and homerun power rates as a left-handed batter have not declined at all. His batting average and BABIP have steadily dropped, however.
- The shift is a problem given Teixeira’s new pull-happy ways, but he’s also added an uppercut to his swing that has resulted in more fly balls. Fly balls turn into outs more than any other type of batted ball, hence the BABIP and average decline.
That uppercut swing was on full display last night, as Tex flew out to relatively deep right field to end the game. He’s a notoriously slow starter, we knew this before he ever played a game in pinstripes, but this was probably the one year he could have used a strong start to help silence all the critics. He has come around a bit of late, with three straight two-hit games and nine hits in his last 25 at-bats. Strangely enough, Tex has yet to hit a homer in 2012, and that includes Spring Training. I know people are going to freak out about that, but I have a hard time taking it seriously after a dozen regular season games.
Teixeira acknowledged the problems with his swing late last year and has reportedly worked to correct them with hitting coach Kevin Long, but it’s still far too early to know if the adjustments are working. He’s only had 35 plate appearances as a left-handed batter so far, and in only 25 of the 35 did he actually put the ball in play (five walks, four strikeouts, one hit-by-pitch). Here’s his spray chart as a lefty…
He’s hit two balls pretty deep to left field — one came in last night’s game — but we’re still weeks away from being able to say anything definitive about an adjustment to his left-handed swing. This is all just window dressing at the moment.
I think the most important we have to realize is that the old Teixeira, the MVP-caliber hitter from 2005-2009, is probably never coming back even if Long’s fixes manage to stick. Tex just turned 32 a week ago and is leaving his prime years, so some semblance of decline is inevitable. Similarity scores hardly qualify as analysis, but Baseball-Reference says the most similar player to Tex through age 31 is Carlos Delgado. Delgado was one of the best hitters of his generation, but his production started to drop off at age 32. It’s the baseball circle of life.
The best case scenario probably calls for the adjustments to halt any further decline, at least temporarily. You can’t control age, but Teixeira can control his swing and perhaps break some of the bad habits he’s developed over the last two seasons or so. Remember, he wasn’t a bad hitter last season by any means, but his performance has fallen below his expected level of production. I think I know how this is going to turn out, but I’m going to ask the question anyway…
The Teixeira Analysis: Left-Handed Balls In Play
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At least someone in Maryland likes him. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Over the last two days we’ve taken a look at the two different Mark Teixeiras to help get an idea of his where his offensive decline is coming from. There’s a right-handed hitting version of Teixeira, who continues to mash and has actually shown signs of improving in recent years, not decline. Then there’s a left-handed hitting version of Teixeira, who has racked up fewer and fewer hits over the last three years. The good news that he’s still hitting the ball over the fence and isn’t striking out any more or walking any less, the problem is isolated to the balls he’s putting in play from the left side of the plate.
Today we’re going to look at those balls in play as a left-handed batter. This post is very image-heavy, so I’ve added a Read More button just to make sure we don’t have any loading issues with the front page. You have been forewarning, there are a bunch of images on the other side of that jump…
The Teixeira Analysis: Left-Handed Production
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
We started our little mini-series looking at Mark Teixeira‘s declining offense yesterday by first acknowledging that as a right-handed batter, the guy is still an elite hitter. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline from that side of the plate, and in fact he’s been able to increase his homer output with sacrificing his batting average, walk rate, or strikeout rate in recent years. The decline has been limited to his left-handed swing exclusively.
First things first, let’s take a look at Teixeira’s offensive performance as a left-handed batter over the last five seasons…
| AVG | ISO | wOBA | BB% | K% | HR/CON | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.397 | 12.8% | 19.6% | 9.3% | 0.302 |
| 2008 | 0.311 | 0.277 | 0.417 | 12.9% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 0.314 |
| 2009 | 0.282 | 0.296 | 0.402 | 11.2% | 17.6% | 8.6% | 0.290 |
| 2010 | 0.244 | 0.213 | 0.350 | 11.3% | 18.3% | 6.9% | 0.255 |
| 2011 | 0.224 | 0.229 | 0.339 | 11.6% | 18.3% | 7.6% | 0.222 |
Just as a reminder, HR/CON is homers per plate appearances with contact. That’s the best way to measure over-the-fence power. Anyway, there’s quite a bit going on here, so let’s take it piece by piece…
Walk & Strikeout Rates
Let’s do the easiest stuff first. There’s no issue here; Teixeira’s walk and strikeout rates as a left-handed batter have barely changed over the years. His walk rate is much better than the league average while his strikeout rate is right there at the average. Given his power production, Teixeira really doesn’t get enough credit for striking out as infrequently as he does. Most 30+ homer guys whiff in 20+% of their plate appearances. So like I said, no problem here. Tex’s ability to control the strike zone has not changed over the last few years.
Power Production
This one’s kinda weird. The HR/CON rates indicates a very slight decline in over-the-fence power but nothing outrageous. A 6.9% HR/CON rate, which represents Teixeira’s worst year in our admittedly arbitrary five-year sample, was still well above the 3.4% league average that year. We’re talking about a guy that hits the ball out of the park at approximately double the league average rate when he makes contact. That’s impressive.
On the other hand, Teixeira’s year-by-year ISO indicates a significant decline in his over power numbers. That decline is relatively speaking of course, because a .213 ISO — his 2010 rate — is still really good. Tex has just gone from an elite power hitter (.270+ ISO) in 2007-2009 to just a really really good one (<.230 ISO) in 2010-2011. The HR/CON and ISO rates seem to be telling us two different things, that Teixeira is both hitting for less and the same amount of power simultaneously, but they’re not. It’s explained in the next section.
Batting Average & BABIP
As you probably knew coming into this post/series, this is where the problem lies. Teixeira has acknowledged that he’s altered his left-handed swing in an effort to take advantage of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium, and that pull happy approach has led to a decline in his total number of base hits. That explains the contradicting HR/CON and ISO; Teixeira is still hitting homers at (approximately) the same rate as past years but he’s hitting fewer doubles as a result of his pull happiness, hence the declining ISO but relatively static HR/CON.
A lot of times a BABIP — and subsequently, batting average — drop is lazily written off as a fluke, but in Teixeira’s case we have tangible evidence supporting the decline. Being a pull-hitter is not automatically a bad thing, but in this case it has sapped his ability to get a simple base knock.
* * *
It’s easy to forget that Teixeira was still above-average as a left-handed batter last season, roughly 10% better than league average. That’s good but not great, and not what we’re used to seeing or expecting out of him. Given the lack of change in his walk, strikeout, and homerun power rates over the last few years, it’s safe the say the guy hasn’t just forgotten how to hit or hit the point where age is taking its toll. He’s gotten into some bad habits that are robbing him of base hits, dragging down his batting average and overall performance as a lefty. Tomorrow we’re going to look at Teixeira’s batted balls from the left side of the plate, so get ready to talk about the shift. That is not the only problem, however.
The Teixeira Analysis: The Right-Handed Batter
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next few days I’m going to spend some time analyzing Mark Teixeira‘s offensive performance, one of the most polarizing topics in Yankeeland. We’re going to start with the piece of the equation that actually isn’t a problem.
(REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
During his three full seasons with the Yankees, Mark Teixeira’s overall offensive performance has declined each year. He put up a .410 wOBA with the Braves and Angels during his walk year in 2008, then put together a still stellar .402 wOBA during his first year in New York. That dropped to a .367 wOBA in 2010, then again to a .361 wOBA in 2009. Now a .361 wOBA is still really good — more than 20% better than the league average — but it’s not up to the lofty standards Teixeira has set for himself with his past production and contract.
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of Teixeira’s declining offense, the very first thing we have to understand is that we’re dealing with two different hitters. As a switch-hitter, there’s a right-handed version of Teixeira and a left-handed version of Teixeira. They’re two different hitters with two different swings and two different sets of tendencies. Lumping the two together doesn’t help us identify the problem.
Overall Performance
Here’s a look at the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last five full seasons, the guy that tees off against left-handed pitchers…
| AVG | ISO | wOBA | BB% | K% | HR/CON | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.357 | 0.208 | 0.430 | 11.9% | 18.6% | 4.9% | 0.422 |
| 2008 | 0.303 | 0.179 | 0.393 | 16.5% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 0.321 |
| 2009 | 0.305 | 0.207 | 0.389 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 6.0% | 0.312 |
| 2010 | 0.278 | 0.250 | 0.403 | 17.0% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 0.290 |
| 2011 | 0.302 | 0.286 | 0.410 | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 0.278 |
HR/CON is homers per plate appearances with contact, the most accurate way to measure over-the-fence power.
Aside from the typical year-to-year ebbs and flows, Teixeira has been a consistently elite producer as a right-handed hitter since 2007. His strikeout and walk rates are both much better than the league average, he’s a .300 hitter (.306 to be exact), and his power output has actually increased each year. Because he’s hit more and more homers against lefties in recently years, his BABIP has dropped. Homers don’t count as balls in play because the defense never gets a chance to actually field them. That’s why his batting average has remained steady despite the BABIP drops; he’s traded some singles and doubles for homers. I’ll take that trade every day of the week.
Batted Ball Profile
Outside of a pretty big outlier in 2008, Teixeira’s batted ball profile as a right-handed hitter hasn’t changed much in the last half-decade (and dating back even further than that)…
| GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% | HR/FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 39.3% | 36.9% | 23.8% | 2.5% | 13.3% |
| 2008 | 50.9% | 29.6% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 14.0% |
| 2009 | 41.3% | 38.0% | 20.7% | 6.0% | 15.8% |
| 2010 | 41.2% | 38.5% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 17.5% |
| 2011 | 37.3% | 42.8% | 19.9% | 4.8% | 21.1% |
Remember, the batted ball information we have these days isn’t perfect, especially when it comes to balls right on the fly ball/line drive bubble. Teixeira hit a few more air balls against lefties last year, but nothing insane. The continued rise in his HR/FB% jives with his increased homer rate, but otherwise there hasn’t been much of a change through the years. That’s a good thing, because Teixeira is a monster from the right side and any change at this point is unlikely to be positive.
Pitch Profile
Whenever you’re successful at something, the opposition is going to adjust. Here’s a look at how pitchers have attacked the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last four years…
| Fastballs | Changeups | Curveballs | Sliders | Misc. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 64.7% | 16.6% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 0.3% |
| 2009 | 61.0% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 0.1% |
| 2010 | 62.2% | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 0.3% |
| 2011 | 61.3% | 17.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 0.1% |
PitchFX data only goes back so far, and anything pre-2008 is unreliable. Even 2008 is pretty sketchy, but anything from 2009 through today is a-okay. Pitchers haven’t been approaching Teixeira any differently in recent years, he’s still seeing the same amount of fastballs and just a touch more changeups.
Teixeira is a difficult guy to pitch to because he always has the platoon advantage. Most left-handed pitchers are fastball-slider guys, and the slider typically isn’t as effective against batters of the opposite hand unless you’re talking a Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner type of slider. Teixeira has only seen one breaking ball out of every five pitches as a righty over the last few years, and the league hasn’t shown much inclination to adjust. Perhaps that’s a sample size issue, perhaps most left-handed pitchers just aren’t good enough to mix it up any more than they do.
* * *
Teixeira’s offensive problems over the last two years are exclusively limited to his left-handed swing. He still hits for a high average with light tower power from the right side while also drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts. It’s the lesser used half of the platoon, but righty Tex isn’t a problem. Tomorrow we’ll begin breaking down the left-handed hitting version of Teixeira, starting with his overall performance before figuring out where exactly the decline is coming from.
2012 Season Preview: Saving Runs
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So good that MLB told him he can't use a glove in 2012 just to make it fair. (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
Like a number of other teams, the Yankees ignored defense for quite some time in the mid-aughts. Maybe ignored is the wrong word, but it definitely wasn’t a priority. The 2005 Yankees were arguably the worst defensive team in baseball history, but they still managed to win 95 games thanks to a dominant offense and some good timing (pythag. 90 wins). That formula doesn’t cut it these days.
By no means are the 2012 Yankees a defensive dynamo, but they’ve improved defensively at a number of positions in recent years by shedding poor glovemen like Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, and Johnny Damon. UZR says the Yankees were the eighth best defensive team in baseball last year, saving 23.2 more runs than expected. At the same time, their -15 DRS ranks 21st out of the 30 team. Different systems give different answers, which is why this defense thing is so hard to pin down these days. Let’s take a look at the Yankees who provide value when not in the batter’s box…
Robinson Cano
Cano is a good example of just how imperfect defensive metrics are these days. UZR doesn’t like him one bit, rating him as a below average defender in each of the last four years and in six of his seven seasons. DRS, on the other hands, says he’s been above average in each of the last three years and in four of the last five. Total Zone says he’s been a bit below average the last two years, but above average the four years before that. FRAA? That says he’s been above average defensively in every season of his career except for 2010, when he registered at -0.5.
Which system is right? Probably all of them to a certain extent, but it goes to show that there’s still no right answer with this defensive stuff. Overall, I think Robbie’s a pretty good second baseman, particularly on plays to his right and around the bag on the double play pivot. Balls hit to his left have been a bit of a problem throughout the years, but I think he’s still a net positive, all things considered. No one will ever confuse Cano for Roberto Alomar or Chase Utley on defense, but he’s a solid glove guy that does his best work near the bag. That double play pivot is just as sweet as his swing.
Brett Gardner
You can make a legitimate case that Gardner is the best defensive player in baseball. He combines his speed with excellent reads for top notch range, and his throwing has improved dramatically over the last two years or so. His arm isn’t terribly strong, but it is accurate. Anytime a ball is hit in the air towards left, I’m pretty confident that it’ll be turned into an out these days.
One thing to keep in mind is that Gardner’s ridiculous defensive ratings — +50.9 UZR and +35 DRS last two years — are relative to other left fielders, and most other left fielders are slow, plodding, bat-first types. I don’t want to take anything away from Brett because he is an elite defender, but if the Yankees were to move him to center, he would not be a +20 defender on an annual basis. He’d be more along the lines of +10 or so. That’s still really awesome, and when it comes to saving runs with the glove, no one on the Yankees is better and very few around the league are even comparable.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Russell Martin
Catcher defense is a tough thing to quantify, but we’ve gotten better throughout the years. Although he’s been below average at blocking passed pitches in recent years, PitchFX data has shown that Martin is one of the very best at framing pitches and saving runs by turning balls into strikes. With an average arm that consistently throws out 30% of attempted base stealers or so, Russ handles himself well behind the plate and is an asset to the team defensively.
Of course, Martin looks like the greatest catcher ever compared to his predecessor Jorge Posada. Not to dump on Posada, but he was a bad defensive catcher and flat out abysmal later in his career, and it could be clouding our judgment when watching Martin or any other Yankees catcher. The few advanced metrics we have do a good job of showing that while he’s a good defensive backstop, Martin isn’t great. He does the job throwing out baserunners, frames pitches exceptionally well, and won’t allow and excessive amount of pitches to get by him.
Mark Teixeira
Defensive metrics still haven’t mastered the first base position, which has more to do with straight glovework than range. Tex isn’t fleet of foot but he does guard the line well and keeps his fair share of balls from getting through the hole. That has more to do with positioning than actual quickness. He’s also a strong thrower, which is still amazing to see after watching Giambi airmail throws for the better part of a decade.
I think Teixeira’s best defensive work comes when he’s scooping throws at first or snagging bad hops, stuff like that. There’s no way to measure this accurately, so it’s completely anecdotal. He saves the other infielders errors by scooping those poor throws, but more importantly saves pitches for the guys on the mound. Tex sees more defensive work than every non-battery position on the field, which is a good thing for the Yankees given his skills.
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I think Alex Rodriguez is worth a mention here, because he looked fantastic on defense late in the season and especially in the ALDS. He didn’t hit much after the knee and thumb injuries, but he still moves well around the bag and makes a lot of tough plays look easy because of his strong arm. I also think A-Rod is the smartest, most instinctual player I’ve ever seen. He always seems to makes the correct decision when it comes to going for the double play, looking back the lead runner, charging the bunt, all that stuff. Alex won’t win a Gold Glove, but by no means is he a liability at the hot corner.
2012 Season Preview: Power Sources
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Granderson provided more power than any other Yankee in 2011. (via Reuters Images)
Since the Yankees’ 2009 championship run, power has largely defined the offense. In both 2009 and 2011 the Yankees led the majors in isolated power, and in 2010 they finished third. They’ve hit 15 more home runs than any other team in that three-year span. Even more impressively, they’ve done this at a time when they’re getting less and less from their once-premier slugger, Alex Rodriguez. But that’s the point, really. The Yankees have many power sources, which helps keep the team ahead of the pack.
When the Yankees traded for Granderson after the 2009 season, people salivated over his power potential. He’d just smacked 30 home runs while playing half his games in homer-suppressing Comerica Park. What could he do with the short porch at Yankee Stadium? It wasn’t uncommon to hear predictions of 40 homers. While that didn’t come immediately, it did last season.
From the start Granderson’s power was evident. Not only did he homer on Opening Day, but he did so against a lefty. He continued belting homers throughout the year, putting on his best displays in May and August. This was made possible in large part because of his improvement against left-handed pitching. In 2010 he managed a paltry .120 ISO against lefties, hitting just four of his 24 homers against them. In 2011 he actually had a higher ISO against lefties than against righties, .325 to .273. If that’s a real effect of the adjustments he made to his swing, the Yanks will continue reaping the benefits in 2012.
The Yankees originally signed Jones last winter, because he added some right-handed pop to an outfield that featured two flawed lefties. One had little power, and the other, to that point, had shown little power against lefties. Jones was coming off a season in which he mashed lefties, producing a .302 ISO and hitting eight homers in 102 PA. But a slow start threatened to end the relationship prematurely, as Jones produced little power through June. From then on, though, he was phenomenal.
While his power numbers against lefties were a bit better than against righties, he still produced solid overall power numbers. In fact, his .234 ISO against right-handed pitchers was higher than Robinson Cano‘s ISO on the season.* He comes back this year with a chance to play a bigger role and provide even more power. While Jones is nowhere near the player he was during his heyday with the Braves, his ability to hit baseballs with authority has kept him well employed in the last few years.
*This is not a demonstrative statement, just a little illustration of how well Jones did hit against righties in his limited at-bats against them.
The story of Mark Teixeira’s 2010 and 2011 seasons centers on overall disappointment. His batting average dropped precipitously, and it affected all of his numbers. That is, except his power numbers. While they look low on a superficial level, that’s in part because power numbers are down across the league. Last year in particular he produced very good power numbers, ranking 12th in the majors in ISO and fourth in home runs.
Unless he brings up his batting average, which will in turn prop up his other numbers, Teixeira will be seen as a disappointment. But even if he doesn’t, he’ll still provide an excellent source of power. Batting in the fifth spot, that could come in handy. He might miss out an opportunity for an RBI single, but he can clear the bases with a homer as well as almost anyone else in the majors.
Robinson Cano
Since his early days in the league, people saw in Cano a perpetual .300 hitter. At the same time, they saw his smooth as silk swing and thought that he could drive plenty of pitches over the fence. Yet in his first four seasons he failed to crack 20 home runs. It wasn’t until 2009 that he found his true power stroke. He hit 25 that year and has topped that in the following two. Could 2012 be the year he finally cracks 30?
The best part about Cano’s increased home run output is that it hasn’t affected his gap power. That is, he’s not driving pitches over the fence that he once drove into the gap. From 2009 through 2011 he ranks second in the majors in doubles with 135, seven ahead of No. 3, Miguel Cabrera, and five behind No. 1, Billy Butler. At the same time he ranks No. 23 with 82 home runs in that span. Perhaps most impressively of all, he’s No. 3 in total bases during the last three seasons.
Alex Rodriguez
Rounding out the middle of the order is a player whose production has faded a bit in the last few years. Clearly injuries hampered Rodriguez in 2010, to the point where he provided no more power than Nick Swisher. That he missed nearly two months of action, among all of his ailments, didn’t help his cause. In a year when the Yankees hit, according to some, too many home runs, Rodriguez managed just 16, sixth most on the team.
During his prime years, from 2001 through 2007, Rodriguez averaged a .287 ISO. It’s unlikely that, even if healthy, he reaches that mark again. But he did produce a .236 ISO in 2010, and .245 in 2009. Those are higher than the marks that he produced in 2006 and 2004, times when the offensive environment was a bit more potent than it has been recently. If he can simply reach those levels in 2012, hitting 30 homers and 30 doubles with a solid batting average, he’ll produce enough power for the Yankees’ already powerful lineup.
