Archive for Mark Teixeira
2012 Season Preview: All Day, Every Day
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(Via Reuters Images)
When we talk about the core of a team, we can mean many things. From 2007 through 2010 the Yankees had the Core Four of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte. As the remaining relics from the late-90s dynasty, they led the team in spirit. We can also refer to the core producers on the team. Last year Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano were the core run producers. Still, there is one core area of a team that often gets overlooked.
With the grind of a 162-game season, teams need guys who take the field day after day. A few fragile players can fit into a team’s blueprint, but as those injury risks increase so does the need for durability. Part of a team’s core, then, centers on these guys who somehow remain healthy. After all, as friend of RAB Tommy Bennett likes to say, health is a skill.
While anyone can get injured at any time, these guys have proven their durability. That’s a big plus for any team, especially one that expects to contend from wire-to-wire. We’ll limit this to position players.
Since debuting in 2003, Teixeira has played fewer than 145 games in just one season. That came in 2007, when he missed 27 games with a quadriceps strain. Prior to that he’d been on the DL just once. Since then he hasn’t spent a single day on the DL, unless you count his hamstring injury in Game Four of the 2010 ALCS. (Apparently Baseball Prospectus lists that as a zero-day DL stint.) In the last four seasons Teixeira has played in at least 156 games. He has become one of the game’s iron men.
Should Teixeira fall victim to injury, the Yankees do have some backup plans. Eric Chavez has been taking reps at first base this spring, as he did last year. There’s also Nick Swisher, who has played there occasionally as a Yankee. That would seemingly open up a hole in the outfield, but if Andruw Jones proves he’s viable in a regular role the Yankees could opt to use Swisher at first if a long-term need arises.
Nick Swisher
Swisher is the type of player that, as the cliche goes, bends but does not break. His injury history, per Baseball Prospectus, is actually quite long. Yet it consists mostly of day-to-day items that have kept him out one, two, maybe three days at a time. Just once in his career has he spent time on the disabled list, and that came all the way back in 2005 when he separated his shoulder running into an outfield fence. That caused him to miss 19 games. He wouldn’t miss 19 games combined in the next four years, and has missed only 30 games since returning from the DL.
In each of his three years with the Yankees Swisher has played in exactly 150 games. He has racked up at least 607 PA in those years, and has come to the plate 635 times in each of the last two. He’s lost 20 games to various injuries, including his knee and biceps, but he’s never been out of position for any significant stretch. With a greater focus on conditioning — Swisher was noticeably thinner in 2010 and 2011 than he was in 2009 — he could remain one of the Yankees’ most dependable players.
Robinson Cano
Remember back in 2006 when Cano missed 35 games — 43 days — with a hamstring injury he suffered running the bases? That felt like a long time for him to be out. The injury didn’t seem that severe, and the Yankees did downplay it to a degree. But he came back with a fury, hitting .365/.380/.635 to finish the season and contending with Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter for the batting title. Since then Cano has missed two games — two games! — due to injury. This includes the time in 2010 when Josh Beckett hit him right in the friggin’ knee with a pitch; he was back as the DH the very next game.
In the last five years Cano has averaged 159.8 games played per season. He’s dipped below 160 just twice: in 2008, because he got benched in September, and last year, when he got a couple of days off in the season’s final weeks. Considering his on-field production at a premium position, Cano’s durability has been a great boon to the Yankees.
Curtis Granderson
It might seem odd to count Granderson among the more durable Yankee players. He did, after all, suffer a groin injury early in his pinstriped tenure, and that sticks in our craws. But that was just Granderson’s second career trip to the DL. He opened the 2008 season on the DL with a broken finger, suffered as the result of a spring training hit by pitch. He also missed time last spring training with an oblique injury, but that cost him just 10 days. And, as we saw, it had little bearing on his regular season performance.
What’s odd about Granderson’s injury rap sheet is that it contains zero day-to-day injuries. It’s just the fractured finger, the groin injury suffered while running the bases, and the oblique injury. That’s uncommon, especially for someone who plays a physically demanding position.
Derek Jeter
If Jeter’s injury history is long, it’s only because he’s been in the league for 16 years. He’s had his minor dings and dents over the years, many times after being struck in the hand with a pitched baseball. But last year was the first time since 2003 that he hit the disabled list. Between those DL stints he missed just 42 games, which covers seven full seasons and parts of two others. In those seven years he never dipped below 150 games and has averaged just under 155 per season.
The Yankees, then, have a great advantage, in that five of the nine hitters in their lineup have proven their durability. What of the other four? As it turns out, with one exception, they’ve been durable in the past as well.
Gardner did miss time in 2009 after fracturing his thumb while sliding into second. He also underwent wrist surgery after the 2010 season. He’s had a few other nagging injuries here and there, but nothing serious. He might not seem durable, due to his size, but he’s managed to stay on the field for most of his time with the Yankees.
Time was, Martin played almost every day. That’s usually a commendable trait, but since Martin squats behind the plate for nine innings that workload can take its toll. The injury problem started in 2010, when he hurt his hip while crossing home plate. Before that the worst he’d suffered was an abdominal strain in spring training — though it came the same year as his hip injury. He also underwent knee surgery that off-season, and then missed time last year with a sore lower back.
Still, Martin has remained on the field for an incredible portion of his career, especially for a catcher. Even last year he managed to miss the DL, sitting out just seven games with the back injury. He started 118 games behind the plate, which is good for a catcher. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him around 125 this year.
Since 2004 Ibanez has been on the DL just twice. The first came in 2004, and the other came in 2009. The pair of injuries caused him to miss 52 games total. Other than that, he has a few day-to-day stints. They have added up to 20 games since 2004. That’s a pretty impressive track record. The biggest knock on Ibanez’s health right now is that he missed four games in 2011 with a groin injury, which is the same one he suffered in 2009. He also underwent surgery to correct a sports hernia after the 2009 season. But for the most part he’s stayed on the field.
That just leaves just two regulars. Andruw Jones has been mostly healthy since 2009, but he’s also played limited roles. It’s tough to say how he’d hold up given more playing time. Then again, prior to 2008 he had never hit the DL. There’s also Alex Rodriguez, who has been on the DL every year since 2008. It’s tough to expect him to remain healthy at this point in his career, but he is working with the same trainer that has kept Grant Hill on the basketball court for the last few seasons.
One of the Yankees’ biggest advantages on offense comes in the form of durability. Injuries can hamper a team’s production. It’s not just that they’re missing the one player’s production. The entire lineup changes, and suffers, when one of its main cogs goes on the DL. The Yankees, with the exception of Rodriguez, have been thankful to avoid that in the last few years. Again, injury can happen to anyone, but if the Yankees maintain their injury record, the offense will be all the more powerful.
2012 Season Preview: Regression Candidates
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He smiled! (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
Yesterday we took at look some Yankees who are candidates to see their performances take a step back in 2012, and now it’s time to flip the coin and look at some players with the potential to improve. That’s the neat thing about the term “regress,” it can work both ways even though it’s somehow developed this negative connotation. The Yankees had a few players under-perform last year, some with good reason and others just because.
Boone Logan
On the surface, Logan had some killer stats last season. He struck out 9.94 batters per nine (24.9 K%) while walking 2.81 per nine (7.0 BB%) with a decent 42.4 GB%. Of course lefty specialists usually aren’t judged by their overall numbers, they’re on the roster to get left-handed batters out. That was a problem for Logan last year, who allowed same-side hitters to tag him for a .260/.328/.462 batting line in 118 plate appearances. He gave up three times as many extra-base hits to lefties as David Robertson despite facing 24 fewer hitters.
Logan’s strikeout (11.20 K/9 and 28.8 K%) and walk (2.30 BB/9 and 5.9 BB%) rates against southpaws were insanely good, but his problem was the long ball. His 40.6 GB% resulted in a 13.3% HR/FB ratio, though Hit Tracker says that three of the four homers he surrendered to lefties were Just Enoughs. That means they cleared the fence by less than ten vertical feet or landed less than one fence height beyond the wall. Two of the four homers would have remained in play in the other 29 parks according to their data. Just Enoughs are the most volatile type of homer given their definition, as they’re very prone to the weather and wind and ballpark. The homer issue may not be much of one, so if Boone can maintain those strikeout and walk rates, he should do just fine against left-handed batters going forward.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Russell Martin
We all know the story by now. Martin started last season ridiculously hot — .270/.367/.511 in his first 158 PA — before dragging himself across the finish line — .221/.303/.357 in his final 318 PA. The end result was a .237/.324/.408 batting line in 476 PA, or a .325 wOBA and a perfectly league average 100 wRC+. The average catcher produced a .309 wOBA and a 91 wRC+ last season, so Martin was an above average hitter relative to his position.
Like most players, Russ was a more productive hitter at Yankee Stadium (.345 wOBA and 114 wRC+) than on the road (.307 and 88). The easy answer is the short porch and more homers, but that’s not the case. Martin went deep eight times with a .175 ISO and a 15.4% HR/FB ratio at home last year, but clubbed ten homers with a .166 ISO and a 16.4% HR/FB ratio away from the Bronx. His walk and strikeout rates were essentially identical both home and away as was his batted ball profile, but his road batting average (.217 with a .220 BABIP) paled in comparison to his home rate (.260 and .288).
Martin is likely to see his home performance suffer a bit next year and his road performance improve a bit. In terms of process stats — the strikeouts, walks, batted ball types — he was the same hitter regardless of venue in 2011, he just got different results. Given the advantages of Yankee Stadium, the short porch and the fact that pretty much every hitter performs better at home, his home performance may not decline as much as his road performance improves. Martin will never be the guy he was in 2007 again, but a little more love on the road will boost his overall numbers and value to the team. Some more rest will only help further.
Nick Swisher
Swisher was basically the anti-Martin last year. He was dreadful to start the season — .206/.321/.288 in his first 193 PA — but a monster thereafter — .284/.397/.519 in his final 442 PA. Overall, Swisher finished with a .260/.374/.449 batting line (.358 wOBA and 122 wRC+), his worst performance as a Yankee and the second worst season full season of his career. His 23 homers were his fewest in five years thanks to the early-season slump.
Although he’ll never be a high-contact guy, Swisher has slightly improved his strikeout rate as his career has progressed while maintaining his high walk rate. He’ll never hit for a high average but that’s fine, he’s asked to provide power and patience. That power was missing early in the season, though his 14.3% HR/FB ratio in 2011 was right in line with his career average (14.9%). He just didn’t hit as many fly balls has he had in the past…
Green is GB, blue is FB, red is LD. (via FanGraphs)
Swisher’s performance against right-handed pitchers last year was by far his worst as a Yankee, going from .375+ wOBAs to just .335. Again, it had to do with the lack of fly balls, a 41.4 GB% compared to 35.9% from 2004-2010. He’s still relatively young (turned 31 in November) and healthy, so there’s no reason we shouldn’t expect the fly balls to return in 2012. It’s not like we’re asking an injury-prone guy in his late-30′s to perform miracles here. More fly balls will lead to more homers, hopefully getting Swish back around 28-30 and making him more dangerous against northpaws.
Alex Rodriguez
It’s easy to forget just how stellar A-Rod was before his knee started giving him problems. He carried a .301/.377/.509 batting line (in 318 PA) into July before getting hurt, which is still excellent even if it’s not on par with his lofty standards. Alex was never the same after that (.191/.345/.353 in his final 84 PA), and the story is the same heading into 2012. I don’t want to spend too much time on this because I think everyone knows the deal. If healthy, A-Rod will produce big numbers even if they aren’t quite as big as they used to be. Whether or not he can actually stay on the field for 140 games or so is a total mystery, experimental knee procedures and new training methods be damned.
Rafael Soriano
Baseball’s highest paid setup man didn’t have a great first year in pinstripes, particularly early on. Most realized that his fly ball ways (just 35.2 GB% in 2011 and 31.4% career) were a bad fit for Yankee Stadium, so the big jump in homer rate (0.92 HR/9 and 8.3% HR/FB were nearly double his 2010 totals) wasn’t a surprise. What was a surprise was his walk rate, which jumped from 2.69 BB/9 and 7.5 BB% coming into the season to 4.12 and 10.0 in 2011, respectively.
Most of the walk damage came before Soriano hit the DL with an elbow problem. That makes sense, since elbow injuries have historically resulted in a loss of control while shoulder injuries have resulted in loss of velocity. Soriano walked 11 of 69 batters (15.9%) before hitting the DL but only seven of 95 batters (7.4%) after getting healthy. His strikeout (14.5 K% per-injury but 27.4 K% after) rate improved as well. Unfortunately, health is a going to remain a question going forward given his career-long battle with his elbow, but a healthy Soriano should be a very good reliever for the Yankees.
Nothing to complain about from the right side. (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)
Mark Teixeira
Teixeira’s performance problems are all self-inflicted. He readily admits that he’s changed his left-handed swing over the last three years in an effort to take advantage of the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium, and says he’s working hard to correct the problem. He’s even talked about laying down bunts to beat the shift, which might be going a little too far. That’s another argument for another time.
With his massive power (.246 ISO and 17.1% HR/FB in 2011 vs. .250 ISO and 18.2% career), strong walk rate (11.1 BB% in 2011 vs. 11.5% career), relatively low strikeout rate (16.1 K% in 2011 vs. 17.2% career), and right-handed production (.410 wOBA vs. LHP in 2011 vs. .400 career) still intact, it’s all about Teixeira getting that batting average as a left-handed hitter (.224 in 2011) back up to his career norm (.277 coming into 2011). If he does that, his overall batting average (.248 in 2011) and OBP (.341) will also return to their previous levels (.286 and .377 coming into 2011, respectively).
Fixing the problem is much easier said than done. The uppercut Teixeira has added to his swing has resulted in a ton of fly balls (48.3% in each of the last two years) against righties, and fly balls will do a number on the ol’ BABIP (just .222 last year) since they’re generally easy to field. Eliminating the uppercut and returning to the level, all-fields approach that made him one of the game’s very best hitters will be tough because that’s a lot of muscle memory to undo. It won’t happen overnight, but it can be done. It will cost Teixeira some homers, but he’s a good enough hitter that he’ll be able to provide average, on-base skills, and 30+ homers at the same time. It doesn’t have to be one of the other.
Mark Teixeira hires agent Casey Close
Posted by: | CommentsVia Jon Heyman, Mark Teixeira has hired Casey Close to be his new agent after dropping Scott Boras almost one year ago to the day. Close — who the Yankees selected in the seventh round of the 1986 draft — also represents Derek Jeter and former Yankees Tyler Clippard, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Marcus Thames. Teixeira still has five years and $112.5M left on the eight-year, $180M contract Boras got him prior to 2009, so the switch to Close has no impact as far as we’re concerned. He’s probably just handling behind the scenes stuff we couldn’t care less about.
2012 Season Preview: Something To Prove
Posted by: | CommentsWith Spring Training fully underway, it’s time to begin our season preview. We’re going to change things up a bit this year, focusing on various aspects of the team rather than individual players. You’ll see most players in multiple posts, but the concepts will all be different.
Jeter will have something to prove for the rest of his career.
The 2011 Yankes might have won more games than any other team in the American League, but that doesn’t mean everything broke their way. A number of proven players struggled at various points in the season. Some struggled the entire season. They’ll all enter the 2012 season with something to prove.
These players could prove vital to the Yankees’ success in 2012. As we’ll discuss early next week, there are a number of players who performed above expectations in 2011. We can’t expect them to repeat those phenomenal performances, so it becomes important that other players step up. The following players contributed less than expected to the 2012 Yankees, but could make up for it with big 2012 campaigns.
It’s hard to forget Phil Hughes’ horrible start to the 2011 season. After the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee (everybody drink!), Hughes became that much more important to the 2011 rotation. He generated some hype after his 18-win 2010 campaign, even though his overall numbers were average at best. It was seemingly his time to shine, but his body had other plans.
Late in spring training reports surfaced that Hughes wasn’t even cracking 90 with his fastball. He proved those reports right in his first start. And then his second. By his third it had become too much. Hughes in 2011 looked like Chien-Ming Wang in 2009. The Yankees reacted in the same way, too; they placed Hughes on the DL with an ambiguous injury.
He came back and pitched better, but by no means did he wow anyone. That led to an intense off-season training regimen that, by all accounts, has him looking fit and prepared for the 2012 campaign. Brian Cashman has asserted that he believes Hughes is “a top-of-the-rotation starter.” Such a transformation, after never previously pitching at that level (as a starter) in the majors would be quite a coup.
Really, though, the Yankees just need Hughes to bounce back to his 2010 levels. If he can give them 180 to 200 innings and perform slightly better than the major league average, he’ll have more than fulfilled his duties as the No. 5 starter. The competition is apparently rigged in his favor, so he’ll get every shot to prove he’s capable.
The questions surrounding Soriano don’t revolve around performance so much as they do health. True, Soriano’s early season performance left much to be desired — through mid-May he had walked more than he struck out and had allowed nine runs in 15 innings (plus another inherited runner). But his main problem in 2011 involved the 66 games he missed with an elbow injury. This is even more concerning for a guy who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2004 and then missed almost all of the 2008 season with elbow troubles.
After returning from the DL, however, Soriano looked more like his old self. He struck out 26 in 24.1 innings, walking only seven in that span and holding opponents to a .205/.263/.318 batting line. He continued pitching well into the playoffs, holding the Tigers to just one hit in 4.2 innings. Unfortunately, that one hit cost them enormously. Even so, his overall performance definitely adds to the optimism that he’ll turn in a full and productive 2012 season.
If Soriano’s elbow doesn’t act up, he’ll play a big role in the bullpen. While Joe Girardi said that David Robertson will resume his eighth-inning duties, it’s not as though he can pitch every eighth inning of every close game. There are also important situations in the seventh inning and even before, and Soriano, who can still induce a good share of swings and misses, could thrive in those. In essence, he’s one of three currently healthy Yankees relievers capable of closing ballgames. That gives them quite a tremendous endgame.
As with Soriano, Rodriguez has to prove his health above all. He started off last season with a bang, going 9 for his first 28 with three homers. But then he dived for a ball at third. That started a chain reaction of injuries that slowed his production. His power took the biggest hit. It gradually faded at first, but by mid-June it was gone. From then through the All-Star break he hit no homers; his .417 SLG was based on his seven doubles and 21 singles.
It was then revealed that he was having severe knee issues, which would eventually require surgery. Rather than spend the rest of the year in pain while producing little in terms of power, Rodriguez opted for the surgery so that he could return, healthy and productive, for the stretch run. That didn’t quite go as expected, though. A thumb injury complicated matters, and Rodriguez hit just .191/.345/.353 in 84 PA after coming off the DL.
At this point we all know about A-Rod‘s knee procedure from this past off-season. We know that he’s so dedicated to his training and health regimen that he’s taking his own meals to restaurants. The effort is definitely there. If his health holds, the performance will almost certainly follow. At this point in his career, though, it’s tough to make any assumptions. He’ll turn 37 in July and has spent time on the DL every year since 2008. Proving his health would be a huge boon for the Yankees in 2012 and in the future.
Derek Jeter proved plenty in the second half of 2011. After a rough start that in many ways reflected his below-expectations 2010 campaign, he found the on-switch while rehabbing from a calf injury. From his return through season’s end he hit .331/.384/.447 in 314 PA, silencing critics. At least for the moment.
Unfortunately, at this stage in his career Jeter will have something to prove every year. If he gets off to a slow start, he’ll have something to prove every at-bat. It won’t be easy on him, either. As a player ages his body does things to which he is not accustomed. Jeter, however, has shown that he’s capable of making adjustments. They might not be drastic maneuvers — the stride-less swing he worked on failed — but they worked in the second half.
While baseball players are typically in steep decline at Jeter’s age, Jeter is not a typical ballplayer. He is one of four players in baseball history with at least 10,000 PA and a BABIP above .350. The other three — Rod Carew, Ty Cobb, and Tris Speaker — all had above-average age-38 seasons. In fact, Cobb led the league in OPS+ at age 38. Carew was the worst of them, with a 101 OPS+, but he did produce a 128 OPS+ at age-37. So while it’s easy to expect decline from Jeter based on his age, remember that he’s not the average ballplayer going through an average decline phase.
Maybe 2010 was just a down year, we thought. After all, Teixeira had a glowing 2009 season in the Bronx. He also battled nagging injuries in 2010, including a thumb injury that sapped his production later in the season. He even ended the postseason on the DL, straining his hamstring in Game Four against Texas. Surely, it was just some bad luck, as evidenced by a .268 BABIP. Right?
As it turns out, Teixeira’s 2010 season was pretty close to his 2011 campaign. They were both colored by heavy power production and a good walk rate, but his batting average simply dipped. While batting average is not a be-all, end-all stat, it does mean plenty — especially when it falls more than 30 points from a player’s career average. For Teixeira, that meant 30 points of OBP and SLG, which led to yet another below expectations year in 2011.
The main problem for Teixeira in 2011 was his performance batting left-handed. He produced a 110 wRC+ from that side, a far cry from his normal levels. He hit right-handed just fine — .302/.380/.587 — but he faced lefties just 216 times out of his 670 PA. He also popped up the ball too often — 11.8 percent of all his fly balls, which is compounded by an increasing number of fly balls in general.
Maybe it’s a kink in his swing. Maybe it’s the psychological effect of a right field fence that is relatively close-by. Whatever the reason, Teixeira is hitting the ball in the air more frequently as a Yankee than he had as a Brave or a Ranger. He’s also popping up more of those pitches. Teixeira is aware of the problem, and says he worked on it this winter. He still has plenty to prove, though, in terms of executing. The last two years were not kind, and he hasn’t played to the expectations the Yankees had when they signed him. As with Rodriguez, a turnaround in 2012 is important not only for the current team, but also for the next five seasons.
The original version of this post omitted Teixeira, which was a glaring oversight.
Girardi Speaks: CC, Rotation, Lineup, A-Rod
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New year, same buzzcut.
Travel problems delayed Joe Girardi‘s arrival to Spring Training, but he made it to Tampa safe and sound prior to today’s workout session, the first of the 2012 season. Girardi spoke to the media about the state of his team afterward, so here’s a recap…
Pitching
- CC Sabathia will get his seventh consecutive Opening Day nod, but after that? “You go [in] with an open mind,” said the skipper. [Marc Carig]
- Girardi said it’s important that Sabathia maintains his weight, and “stays there or close to it.” It’s most important that he “stays strong,” obviously. [Jack Curry]
- Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia will battle it out for the fifth starter’s spot, though Girardi said he still envisions the former as a starter. [Curry]
- “I’m always amazed at how big players are today,” said Girardi about new pickup Michael Pineda. “They’re large humans.” [Mark Feinsand]
- David Robertson will remain the Eighth Inning Guy™ while Rafael Soriano gets stuck in the seventh inning. I’d like to see Robertson in more a fireman role rather than be married to one inning, but whatever. [Feinsand]
Position Players
- Girardi is leaning towards a 3-4-5 of Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira, but he qualified it by saying: “I’m not married to that.” Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson figure to remain atop the lineup. [Feinsand & Carig]
- Girardi doesn’t have a clearly defined plan for A-Rod regarding his rest and time at DH, and he’ll probably play it by ear. He does expect Alex to have a big year, though not necessarily 45 homers big. [Carig & Curry]
- “I anticipate it will be [Frankie Cervelli],” said the skipper when asked about the backup catcher. Others like Austin Romine will get a shot to take the job in camp though. [Erik Boland & Carig]
Miscellany
- “If not for [A.J. Burnett], we may not win that World Series,” said Girardi about his departed right-hander. “I felt A.J. did everything we asked him to.” [Marc Carig]
- “I thought our guys came in good shape,” Girardi said. “I thought they were all ready to go.” [Chad Jennings]
[Photo via Bryan Hoch]
Tex should focus on pitch recognition from the left side, not bunting
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Tex swinging over what I can only imagine is a curveball. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty)
About a year ago I took a look at Mark Teixeira’s curveball problem. While anyone who watched Tex hit in 2010 didn’t need an elaborate post telling them he struggled against the curve, it bore watching as he had posted above-average run values versus the curveball in his two seasons prior. 2010 was also a down year for Tex against the fastball, as he posted a five-year low (a mere 7.3 runs above average) against a pitch he punished to the tune of 38.8 runs above average a mere two years earlier.
Tex found himself back in Yankee fans’ crosshairs again last week, after suggesting that he might try bunting from the left side of the plate this coming season in a misguided attempt to beat the shift. Brien Jackson at IIATMS noted that the shift isn’t the real problem, William Juliano published a typically comprehensive look at Tex’s offensive numbers from both sides of the plate hitting to different fields, and TYA’s Michael Eder pondered whether Tex bunting would actually work.
Today I thought I’d take a slightly different tack and dive into how pitchers are attacking Mark Teixeira, left-handed hitter. The good news for Tex is that he improved his performance against the fastball this season (although wFF numbers are cumulative from both sides of the plate), fininishing the year at 12.3 runs above average. Still, this is a far cry from the heady days of wFF numbers in the high-20s. Unfortunately for Tex, his woes against the curveball continued in 2011, and he actually tied for the 9th-worst wCU/100 mark in the American League. So what’s going on with Tex against the curve? The below chart shows various outcomes for Tex against the curveball when hitting from the left side of the plate (data c/o both TexasLeaguers.com and JoeLefkowitz.com):
Following the curve’s whopping success against left-handed Tex in 2010, righties slightly increased the number of hooks they threw the Yankee slugger last season, from 11.2% to 11.8%. Now obviously we’re talking about a pretty small rise, but with Tex also seeing significantly fewer four-seamers than he did in 2009 (46.4% down to 38.1%), the minimal increase carries a bit more weight.
Right-handers threw the curve less frequently for strikes in 2011, but Tex still swung at them with essentially the same frequency as the previous year. He hit them in the air more frequently than he had previously as a Yankee (no surprise given his predilection for popping out to the infield), fouled them off slightly more frequently, hit fewer on the ground, and to his credit, actually whiffed less frequently than the previous two years. However, he also stopped hitting the curve for as much power, following a 1.3% HR% in 2009 with two straight seasons of 0.4%.
Given the curveball’s continued effectiveness against Tex, I was curious to see whether its deployment increased depending on the count. The below chart shows curveball frequency when the pitcher is ahead (I’m considering 0-0 as the pitcher being ahead in this case, because anecdotally it seems like Tex never swings first pitch, even though B-Ref says he did at least 56 times last year):
I was a bit surprised to see the curve being most frequently deployed on 0-2 and 1-2 in 2009, but perhaps the most telling component of this graph is that pitchers have significantly increased their likelihood of trying to get ahead of Tex at the start of his at-bats, dropping a curve in on the first pitch 13.9% of the time last season, a three-year high.
And what’s been happening when Tex does make contact?
His LD BABIP spiked back up last season after a woeful .250 in 2010, but was still nearly 200 points below its 2009 high of .833. His FB BABIP on the curve unsurprisingly fell to a three-year low, and his GB BABIP basically remained constant.
Now, in fairness to Tex, part of the curveball issue is that he has to face some outstanding curveball-throwing pitchers. Out of the 233 curveballs he saw from righties in 2011, 79, or 34%, were thrown by Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, James Shields, Felix Hernandez, Jeremy Hellickson and John Lackey (pitchers he had 10 at-bats or more against each). Outside of Lackey, those hurlers are among the best in in the league, and so Tex probably needs to be cut some slack.
However, he’s shown that he’s not completely useless against the curveball in the past, and it would bode well for the 2012 Yankees if he can recognize that right-handed pitchers are probably going to attack him earlier in the count with curveballs and ideally hold off from swinging at said curves unless he actually is able to revise his approach from the left side with Kevin Long.
Comparing Teixeira’s Contract To Fielder’s
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Don't hate on my MS Paint skills. (Both photos via AP)
In perhaps the most extreme case of overreaction in baseball history, the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214M contract two weeks ago after learning that Victor Martinez would miss the season with a knee problem. It’s the fourth largest contract in baseball history, and like many of you, I couldn’t help but think that Mark Teixeira eight-year, $180M contract suddenly looked a whole lot better by comparison. Fielder is the better player at the moment, but Teixeira didn’t get his contract at the moment. He signed it three years ago.
Given the enormous outlays, let’s compare the two players and their contracts. To do this, we’re going to go back in time a bit and look at the player Teixeira was when he signed his contract, because that’s more applicable when comparing these massive deals. He was 28 years old when the Yankees signed him prior to 2009, a year older than Fielder is right now. Both guys are Scott Boras clients, so that makes the comparison a little easier. With all due respect, no agent is as successful as Boras when it comes to getting top dollar.
We’re going to break the comparison into four sections: offense, baserunning, defense, and durability. The first three are self-explanatory, and durability is quite underappreciated in my opinion. If you’re giving out contracts like these, you want to be damn sure the player can stay on the field. Let’s start with the money-makers, the bats…
Offense
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | K% | uIBB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 0.298 | 0.393 | 0.541 | 141 | 0.244 | 0.395 | 139 | 16.8% | 11.3% |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 0.287 | 0.409 | 0.547 | 155 | 0.260 | 0.403 | 153 | 18.0% | 12.7% |
Both players are well above average offensively, both in terms of getting on-base and launched baseballs into orbit. Teixeira was approximately 40% better than league average back in the day while Fielder is roughly 50% better than league average today, so Prince is the better hitter by a not small margin. It is worth noting that Teixeira is a switch-hitter, and back then he had a relatively small platoon split (134 wRC+ vs. RHP and 148 vs. LHP from ’06-’08). Fielder is a lefty and has shown a somewhat significant split throughout over the last three years (168 wRC vs. RHP but 119 vs. LHP). He’s the better hitter, but the switch-hitting thing is a definite plus for Tex.
Baserunning
| SB | CS | SB% | XB% | BsR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 4 | 0 | 100% | 40% | -0.8 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 4 | 4 | 50% | 19% | -16.4 |
Baserunning is an important part of the game, but it really doesn’t have as much impact as you might think. The different between the best and worst baserunners in a given season will be something like 30 runs, and we’re talking Michael Bourn vs. Jorge Posada type of stuff. Most players are within five runs of league average (one way or the other) with few outliers.
He’s slow and he makes funny faces when he runs, but Teixeira was a pretty good baserunner once upon a time. He took the extra base 40% of the time from 2006-2008 (meaning he went first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double, etc.), ever so slightly above the league average (39%). Fielder is well below average on the bases, taking the extra roughly half as often as the average player (league average is 41% these days). In terms of runs created on the bases (that’s BsR), Tex was essentially league average again while Fielder was well below. We’re talking a 15 or so run difference between the two players over a three-year span, or five runs a year. None a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.
Just ignore the stolen base stuff, neither of these guys are asked to do much of that.
Defense
| UZR | DSR | TZ | FRAA | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 17 | 16 | 21.1 | 3.7 | 14.5 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | -10.8 | -15 | -25.8 | -11.9 | -15.9 |
Advanced fielding metrics aren’t perfect, especially for first baseman. They are useful over large samples though, especially in conjunction with the ol’ eye test. Teixeira is a great fielder and always has been by reputation, and the numbers back that up. Fielder is the opposite, a poor defender with the reputation to match. You can quibble with the exact numbers if you want, but they pass the sniff test. A 30 or so run gap is significant, even when talking about a three-year stretch.
Durability
| Games | Games Started | DL trips | Days on DL | Day-to-Days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 451 | 440 | 1 | 37 | 10 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 485 | 481 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Durability is a skill to a certain extent, and like I said earlier, I think it’s underappreciated. Fielder is arguably the most durable position player in the sport right now, appearing in all but one game over the last three years and starting all but five of them. That’s pretty amazing. Teixeira missed more than five weeks with a quad strain in 2007, but otherwise he appeared in 162 and 157 games in 2006 and 2008, respectively.
This is a pretty good spot to talk about the body types, because they are important. Teixeira’s got the prototypical robot baseball player build, meaning 6-foot-3 and 220 lbs., with less body fat than I have in my left thigh. Fielder’s a portly little guy, listed on the Tigers official site at 5-foot-11 and 275 lbs. That doesn’t mean he’s out of shape — there’s a difference between being fat and being out of shape — but his body is absolutely a concern going forward. All that extra weight can lead to knee and back problems later in his career. Three years ago (and even today), no one had any reason to be concerned about Teixeira physically.
Adding up the WARs
| fWAR | bWAR | WARP | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’06-’08 Teixeira | 15.0 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 14.5 |
| ’09-’11 Fielder | 15.3 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 14.1 |
As far as I’m concerned, there’s no difference between 14.5 and 14.1 WAR. The various WAR models just aren’t accurate enough to get worked up over a four run difference. All this tells us is that Teixeira’s fielding and baserunning closed the gap between his offense and Fielder’s, nothing more. This is how each player performed in the three years leading up to their free agency, not an indication of how they’re likely to perform going forward. It might give you an idea of what to expect in the future, but make that assumption at your own risk.
At the end of the day, we have two very similar players in 2006-2008 Teixeira and 2009-2011 Fielder. Both guys were top ten draft picks once upon a time, both play the same position, both are young and very much in the primes of their careers, and both have provided the same amount of value in the three years leading up to their free agency. They’re both $100M+ players, no doubt about that. Going forward though, wouldn’t you rather have the switch-hitter than provides better defense and has the better body? I know I would.
In many ways, Fielder’s contract is one of Boras’ best. He got Teixeira 8/180 when both the Yankees and Red Sox were heavily involved in the bidding, but then three years later he got Fielder 9/214 with almost no big money teams in the market for the first baseman. Convincing the Tigers to sign Prince to that contract when they already had a better player with his own nine-figure contract at the same position is nothing short of player representation genius in my book.
Yanks’ slugger proposes bunting to beat the shift
Posted by: | CommentsBy all accounts, Mark Teixeira had a disappointing 2011 for the Yankees. After a stellar 2009 when he hit .292/.383/.565, Teixeira had a down year in 2010 with a .256/.365/.481 line. His slugging rebounded slightly to .494 last year but he hit .248 with a .341 OBP. At age 31, in his offensive peak, Teixeira shouldn’t see his numbers declining so drastically.
To make matters worse, Teixeira exhibited some drastic splits. Against right-handed pitchers as a left-handed batter, Teixeira hit .224/.325/.453 in 464 plate appearances, and it seemed as though he had been programmed for pop-ups. In an effort seemingly to blast home runs over the short right field wall, Teixeira got under too many pitches. Watching him hit left-handed grew painful.
Over the course of the season, Yankee fans grew frustrated with Teixeira. Why would he keep batting lefty? Why wouldn’t he do something to change his approach? Why wouldn’t he — gasp — bunt against the shift?
Now, I can’t stand this idea. Mark Teixeira was brought in to hit home runs and play a solid first base. He wasn’t brought in to bunt, and the Yanks shouldn’t be messing with his swing after a disappointing season. Still, Teixeira is seemingly open to the idea. Pete Caldera was at the Thurman Munson Awards Dinner on Tuesday night when the Yanks’ $180 million man started talking.
“I’ve been so against it my entire career, [but] I might lay down some bunts. If I can lay down a few bunts, beat the shift a little more the other way, then I’m right where I need to be,” he said. “Maybe I’ll lay down 20 bunts in spring and see what happens. If I’m 1-for-20, maybe I’ll have to go back to the drawing board.”
On the one hand, I like the idea of beating the shift now and then. On the other hand, the idea of Mark Teixeira bunting fills me with sheer unavoidable dread. In theory, it seems like a decent enough idea, but this is a baseball player who admitted he hadn’t bunted since high school, 14 years ago.
Teixeira had a .239 BABIP last year. That could indicate that he was largely unlucky or that could indicate that he was simply hitting too many ground balls or pop ups. He still blasted 39 home runs, and that’s why the Yanks have him. In January, it might be fun to suggest bunting. In April, he should be up there swinging away, in search of a more productive season. The bunting can stay at home.
Teixeira could be 2012′s big offensive addition
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(Kathy Kmonicek/AP)
If the Yankees off-season seems to be moving slowly, it’s for good reason. There just aren’t that many moves to make. The starting rotation would benefit from an upgrade, and the bench needs filling. The former will take time, and the latter usually comes towards the end of the off-season. In terms of starting position players and bullpen, the Yankees are pretty set. In fact, the biggest upgrades are likely to come from within. It all starts with the big bat at first base.
In the last two seasons Mark Teixeira has disappointed. The Yankees signed him to a $180 million contract with high expectations, and he delivered fully in his pinstriped debut. His 2009 season ranked among his best, and his 42.9 runs above average led the Yankees by a decent margin. Yet in the last two seasons combined Teixeira has managed only 50.8 runs above average. While he’s still ranked among the team’s best hitters, he hasn’t provided the top-level production expected of him. A return to his days of 40-plus runs above average could be vital for the 2012 squad.
Teixeira has talked about his failures in 2011, and this week he reiterated them as he received the March of Dimes’ Sportsman of the Year award.
“Right-handed, I thought I had a great year,” Teixeira said. “Power-wise, I thought I had a great year, but my average was very disappointing. Being able to hit the ball the other way a little bit more, use the whole field, take the shift away, it’s going to really help me out.”
There is nothing false about Teixeira’s assessment. Against lefties he hit .302/.380/.587, good for a 158 wRC+. That ranked 25th out of 204 players with at least 110 PA vs. left-handed pitching. In terms of power Teixeira is spot-on, too. His .246 ISO was the fifth-best mark of his career, despite declining league-wide power numbers — his ISO ranked 12th in the majors. And, of course, his average was quite disappointing. This was not only because it was so low in general, but also because it was two straight years of sub-.260 hitting from a player who hadn’t hit below .280 since his rookie season.
The issue of hitting the ball the other way is something that almost everyone sees when watching Teixeira hit every day. While hitting into the shift represents one aspect of his left-handed hitting futility, it’s not the whole of it. Oftentimes he tries to pull outside pitches, which leads to weak fly balls and grounders, not to mention the now-infamous pop-ups. A quick look at his spray charts against right-handed pitching makes the issue as clear as possible.
In 2011 Teixeira lacked any power to the opposite field. While the green and red dots denote where the ball was fielded, and not necessarily where it landed, the idea is still the same. The green dots deep to center, left-center, and left field are indicative of balls hit far enough, or hard enough, to get near the wall. In 2011 he hit just one baseball to the warning track in center, left-center, or left, and it was a fly ball that was caught. None of the ball he hit in that direction were hard enough to get by the outfielders, for the most part. So, again, this issue extends far beyond hitting into the shift. It’s an issue with his approach as much as it his his swing.
Thankfully, Teixeira is already hard at work. He hasn’t resumed baseball activities yet — that begins with the new year. But he knows the issue and plans to put a greater focus on hitting for contact from the left side. In the meantime, he’s already started off-season workouts and has dropped 10 pounds since the season. This might not seem that important, since Teixeira has never seemed anything less than athletic. But it does emphasize a point that I haven’t seen mentioned often. At this point last off-season, Teixeira was still rehabbing.
In fact, in the last two off-seasons Teixeira has faced unprecedented challenges. In 2009 he played deeper into October (and November) than he had previously in his career. That necessarily changes his off-season habits. Perhaps his conditioning suffered and that played a part in his disappointing 2010 season. Teixeira ended the 2010 season with a hamstring injury, suffered in mid-October. That takes rest and rehab, and chances are he was again thrown off his normal routine. This year, however, with an early October exit and a clean bill of health, Teixeira is able to go through the motions as he’s become accustomed. That he’s already lost weight is only a positive sign.
The 2012 Yankees offense might be set, but that doesn’t mean it’s worry free. Curtis Granderson, for instance, had a career year that will prove difficult to repeat. Derek Jeter is another year older, and could see a further decline in his numbers. It’s tough to know what they can expect from Alex Rodriguez. Teixeira stepping up, then, factors heavily into the strength of the 2012 offense. A return to stardom for him could help offset declining performance from others.
Granderson, Cano finish fourth and sixth in AL MVP race
Posted by: | CommentsThe AL Cy Young Award wasn’t enough. Justin Verlander was named the MVP of the American League today, receiving 13 of 28 first place votes. He’s the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher to win the award since Roger Clemens in 1986. He’s also the first Tiger to be named MVP since Willie Hernandez in 1984.
Curtis Granderson was the Yankees’ best player all season, and was rewarded for his efforts with a fourth place finish in the voting. He received three first place votes and finished with 215 points, trailing only Verlander (280), Jacoby Ellsbury (242), and Jose Bautista (231). The top five finish triggers an escalator clause in his contract, raising the value of his 2013 option from $14M to $15M. Robinson Cano finished sixth in the voting with 112 points, though he did not receive any first or second place votes.
CC Sabathia (two sixth place votes), Mark Teixeira (one seventh and one tenth place vote), and David Robertson (one tenth place vote) also appeared on ballots. The full results are available on the BBWAA’s site. The NL MVP will be announced tomorrow at 2pm, the final award of the season.
