The Suddenly Productive Farm System [2015 Season Review]

Judge at the Futures Game. (Rob Carr/Getty)
Judge at the Futures Game. (Rob Carr/Getty)

This past season the Yankees received more production from their farm system than they did in any year since Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang arrived in 2005. And because of that, they’ll take a hit in the various farm system rankings next spring. Top prospects Luis Severino and Greg Bird graduated to MLB, as did the since traded John Ryan Murphy.

When you lose two high-end talents like Severino and Bird to the big leagues, your system is going to take a hit. That’s life. You’d rather the system take a hit because of graduations than failing prospects, and in recent years the Yankees were dealing with too much of the latter. With new farm system head Gary Denbo in charge, the system took a step forward this summer and gave the MLB team help, the kind of help that wasn’t always available in recent years. Let’s review the season on the farm.

The Top Prospect

Coming into the season it was debatable whether Severino or OF Aaron Judge was the Yankees’ top prospect. I went with Judge for a number of reasons, including the inherent injury risk with pitchers. Severino zoomed to the big leagues this summer while Judge split the season between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton, hitting .258/.332/.446 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 127 total games.

Judge dominated the Double-A level (147 wRC+ with 12 HR in 63 games) but had a tougher time in Triple-A (98 wRC+ with 8 HR in 61 games), which isn’t all that uncommon. He was facing pitchers with big league experience for the first time and they picked him apart, mostly by taking advantage of his big strike zone — Judge is 6-foot-7, remember — with high fastballs and soft stuff away.

Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, Judge’s strikeout rate did not spike in Triple-A, at least not insanely so. He had a 25.3% strikeout rate at High-A, a 25.0% strikeout rate in Double-A, and a 28.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A. That’s three extra strikeouts per 100 plate appearances. Judge did have some ugly strikeout heavy slumps with the RailRiders, but overall the strikeout increase was not alarming.

That isn’t to say Judge’s strikeouts aren’t an issue. He’s always going to strike out a lot, he’s a huge guy with a big zone, but you’d rather see him hover around 25.0 K% rather than 28.0+ K% long-term. The power is there though. Judge hit three more homers and two more doubles in 2015 than 2014 despite getting 23 fewer plate appearances, playing against better competition, and playing in worse hitters parks.

The less than stellar showing at Triple-A ensures Judge will return to the RailRiders to start 2016 so he can work on controlling the strike zone a little better (his 9.8% walk rate was above-average, for what it’s worth) and laying off soft stuff off the plate. Judge has big power and his right field defense is easy to overlook. He’s a really good athlete with a strong arm who’s an asset in the field. Hiccup in Triple-A notwithstanding, Judge remains New York’s top prospect in my book.

Mateo. (Jerry Coli)
Mateo. (Jerry Coli)

The Big Name Breakout Prospects

It’s weird to consider C Gary Sanchez a breakout prospect because he’s been one of the best prospects in the organization for a few years now, but a few things finally clicked this year, mostly in terms of his maturity. It helped him reach the big leagues in September. Sanchez is now a candidate — if not the favorite — to replace Murphy as the Brian McCann‘s backup next summer.

SS Jorge Mateo, another one of the team’s top prospects, also broke out this past season in the sense that he played his first full season. The 20-year-old speedster hit .278/.345/.392 (114 wRC+) with a minor league leading 82 steals in 99 attempts (83% success rate) in 117 games with (mostly) Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. No other player stole more than 75 bases this year. If you want to argue Mateo (or Sanchez) is the Yankees’ top prospect and not Judge, I’d disagree, but I’d understand.

A few years ago RHP Rookie Davis was an interesting name literally because of his name. His real name is William but a nickname like Rookie gets you noticed. Davis took a big step forward this year, especially with the command of his mid-90s heater/curveball combination. Walk rate is a control stat, not a command stat, though it is notable he cut his walk rate from 7.6% last year to 4.7% his year. Davis had a 3.86 ERA (2.47 FIP) in 130.2 innings with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton.

OF Dustin Fowler, 20, also made the jump from sleeper to bonafide prospect this summer by hitting .298/.334/.394 (113 wRC+) with 20 doubles, five homers, and 30 stolen bases in 123 games at Low-A and High-A. He then had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Fowler has been playing baseball full-time for only two years now — he was also a top football recruit in high school — and he’s starting to turn his power/speed/defense tool package into baseball ability.

And finally, the biggest breakout prospect of the summer was OF Ben Gamel, who’s spent the last few years as a depth player and not an actual prospect. Thee 23-year-old hit .300/.358/.472 (138 wRC+) with 28 doubles, 14 triples, ten homers, and 13 steals in 129 games, all at Triple-A. Gamel’s power finally started to blossom and he’s now a legitimate big league candidate. He and Davis were added to the 40-man roster last month.

The Emerging Depth

Farm systems will always be defined by their star power, that’s just the way it goes, though depth is important as well. The Yankees had several lower profile prospects — guys who don’t necessarily project to be stars but do have a chance to contribute at the big league level in a meaningful way — emerge this summer, including SS Tyler Wade, RHP Brady Lail, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Cale Coshow, and RHP Domingo Acevedo.

Wade. (The Times of Trenton)
Wade. (The Times of Trenton)

Wade, 21, had an ugly 21-game cameo with Double-A Trenton (37 wRC+) late in the season after a strong showing with High-A Tampa (117 wRC+). He hit .262/.321/.333 (99 wRC+) in 127 total games overall in 2015 and is a contact-oriented left-handed hitting middle infielder with the defensive chops for either side of the second base bag. At the very least, Wade is in position to have a long career as a backup infielder.

The 22-year-old Lail is a major player development success for the Yankees. He was the team’s 18th round pick in the 2012 draft as an extremely raw high schooler from Utah. The Yankees have helped mold him into a four-pitch righty who is in position to give the team serviceable innings soon. Lail had a 2.91 ERA (3.51 FIP) in 148.1 innings for Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton in 2015, though he didn’t miss any bats (13.8 K%). He offers a fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup. The ceiling is not all that high here, but Lail can help.

Unsurprisingly, the 22-year-old Montgomery was one of the best pitchers in the system this season, posting a 2.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.1%) and walk (6.6%) rates in 134 innings at Low-A and High-A. Montgomery spent three years in South Carolina’s rotation facing tough SEC lineups, so Single-A lineups were no challenge. He’s another four-pitch guy (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and we’ll find out if Montgomery is for real next season, when he heads to Double-A Trenton.

Coshow is an interesting prospect. For starters, the guy is listed at 6-foot-5 and 260 lbs., so he’s an intimidating presence on the mound. Secondly, he had a 2.45 ERA (2.80 FIP) with good strikeout (21.5%) and walk (6.2%) numbers in 114 innings at three levels in 2015. He topped out at Double-A. Coshow, 23, performed so well the Yankees moved him from a relief role into a starting role at midseason. He’s got a huge fastball, sitting 95-97 and hitting 100 mph in relief, and he backs it up with a wipeout slider. I don’t think Coshow’s a starter long-term, but gosh, that’s a nice looking relief prospect.

And finally, the 21-year-old Acevedo is either one of the best prospects in the organization or just an interesting arm with a long way to go, depending who you ask. Acevedo had a 1.81 ERA (2.89 FIP) with a lot of strikeouts (26.6%) and an average number of walks (7.9%) in 49.2 innings with mostly Short Season Staten Island this summer. He’s another huge guy (6-foot-7) who has touched triple digits, and his changeup is pretty good too. Acevedo needs to figure out a breaking ball at some point to avoid a future in the bullpen.

The Reclamation Prospects

At this time last year both OF Mason Williams and OF Slade Heathcott were afterthoughts. Williams didn’t hit at all from 2013-14 and he was dogged by maturity issues. Heathcott simply couldn’t stay healthy. The two came to Spring Training healthy this year and with positive attitudes, and they put themselves back on the prospect map. Both made their MLB debuts in the first half. It might not sound like much, but Williams and Heathcott went from non-factors to the show in about six months. That’s pretty darn cool.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees had to be pleased with what they saw from 3B Eric Jagielo (141 wRC+ with Double-A Trenton) before he jammed his knee sliding into home plate in June and had to have it scoped, ending his season. Jagielo’s defense is still a huge question, but the guy can hit, especially for power. IF Abi Avelino and IF Thairo Estrada both had nice seasons in the low minors — Avelino stole 54 bases and Estrada had a 108 wRC+ with Short Season Staten Island.

OF Rob Refsnyder, LHP Jacob Lindgren, and RHP Bryan Mitchell gave the Yankees some mileage at the big league level, and the team turned OF Ramon Flores and RHP Jose Ramirez into Dustin Ackley. The 2014-15 international spending spree added a bevy of prospects to the system and the 2015 draft added even more talent, with RHP James Kaprielian, SS Wilkerman Garcia, RHP Drew Finley, SS Hoy Jun Park, 3B Dermis Garcia, and RHP Chance Adams among the most notable new additions. Also, 2B Tony Renda came over in the David Carpenter trade.

The Disappointing Prospects

It’s not all good news, of course. Several prospects had disappointing seasons, most notably OF Tyler Austin. He hit .240/.315/.343 (92 wRC+) in 94 regular season games and was demoted from Triple-A Scranton to Double-A Trenton at midseason. The Yankees dropped Austin from the 40-man roster in September and he slipped through waivers unclaimed.

3B Miguel Andujar did the bad first half/good second half thing again, though the end result was a .243/.288/.363 (98 wRC+) line in 130 High-A Tampa games. At some point Andujar has to put together a full productive season. Bonus baby OF Leonardo Molina hit .247/.290/.364 (96 wRC+) while repeating the Rookie Gulf Coast League. Age is on his side though — Molina turned 18 in July. Yes, he’s still only 18. Austin, Andujar, and Molina were the biggest disappointments among the team’s top 30 prospects.

Clarkin. (MLB.com screen grab)
Clarkin. (MLB.com screen grab)

The Inevitable Injures

Injuries are part of baseball. That’s just the way it is. The Yankees had several high-profile prospects suffer significant injuries in 2015. LHP Ian Clarkin (elbow inflammation), C Luis Torrens (shoulder surgery), RHP Domingo German (Tommy John surgery), RHP Austin DeCarr (Tommy John surgery), and RHP Ty Hensley (Tommy John surgery) combined for zero regular season games played this year. Zero.

That is two of the top six, three of the top eleven, and five of the top 18 prospects in the organization according to my preseason rankings. (Four of the top seven pitching prospects!) Ouch. Literally and figuratively. On the bright side, Clarkin did avoid the zipper and was able to throw 24.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League. But still, that’s a lot of really good prospects going down with major injuries. The Clarkin and Torrens injuries really took a bite out of the system. They have the most upside.

* * *

Overall, the 2015 season was a big success for the Yankees’ farm system because they graduated some impact talent to the big leagues. Severino and Bird look like keepers and future core players. Murphy had a very good season before being traded a few weeks ago. Sanchez and Mateo emerged, Kaprielian was drafted, and Judge reached Triple-A.

The Yankees dipped into their farm system for help whenever possible this season, and I have to think that serves as motivation for the guys still in the minors. They see that if they stay healthy and produce, they’ll get a chance too. Calling up guys like LHP Matt Tracy and OF Taylor Dugas shows the Yankees will now give anyone and everyone an opportunity if they’re the right man for the job.

The Young Outfielders [2015 Season Review]

Slade & Co. (Presswire)
Slade & Co. (Presswire)

Thanks mostly to Jacoby Ellsbury‘s knee injury, the Yankees had an opportunity to audition several of their young outfielders this past season. Of course several of the young guys then got hurt as well. The center field position was cursed for a few weeks there. Whoever played the position kept getting hurt.

I’m not sure many folks expected Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams to make their MLB debuts this summer, but the Yankees dipped into their system for help time and time again, and both got the call. Both made solid impressions before the injuries too. Those two plus Ramon Flores spent time with the Yankees this summer and all three helped in their own way.

First Up: Heathcott

At this time last year, the Yankees were about to non-tender Heathcott and remove him from the 40-man roster. The plan was to non-tender him, re-sign him to a minor league contract, and keep him as a non-40-man player. Heathcott leveraged his sudden free agency into a pretty sweet deal and returned to the organization a few days later.

Injuries, specifically knee and shoulder surgeries, limited Heathcott to nine games in 2014 and 117 games total from 2012-14. It was a long shot he would be able to contribute, but Slade came to Spring Training healthy and in great shape, and he mashed. He hit .333/.450/.545 in 23 Grapefruit League games and received the James P. Dawson Award as the best rookie in camp.

The Yankees planned to sent Heathcott to Double-A Trenton to start the season, but his strong spring convinced them he was ready for Triple-A Scranton, so he instead opened the year with the RailRiders. He stayed healthy and continued to hit early in the regular season, putting up a .285/.335/.358 (102 wRC+) batting line in his first 37 Triple-A games. On May 19th, after Ellsbury hurt his knee, the Yankees called Slade to the show for the first time.

Heathcott did not start that first game on May 20th, instead making his MLB debut by coming off the bench in the late innings for defense. He started in center field the next day and went 2-for-3 with a double. The double was his first career hit in his first career at-bat. Three days later, Heathcott launched his first career big league home run.

The kid was on fire. Slade went 6-for-17 (.353) with a double and a home run in his first six big league games … and then he got hurt. All the air was let out of the balloon. A strained quad was the culprit this time, and I guess the good news is it was only a muscle pull, not serious structural damage that required surgery like the knee or shoulder.

The quad injury sidelined Heathcott for two months — he was actually placed on the 60-day DL at one point to clear 40-man roster space — and, once healthy, he returned to Triple-A Scranton. Slade hit a disappointing .257/.300/.336 (84 wRC+) in his final 30 Triple-A games of the season. The Yankees did not call him up on September 1st either. They wanted him to get regular at-bats and not sit on the big league bench.

Heathcott remained with the RailRiders through the end of the minor league season before being called up on September 12th. On September 14th, after entering a game against the Rays as a defensive replacement in the eighth inning, Heathcott hit a go-ahead three-run home run in the top of the ninth. It was, as Michael Kay would say, a UUUGE hit.

That was one of the coolest moments of the season, hands down. Forget the enormity of the hit — the Yankees were desperately trying to stay in the AL East race and needed every win possible — just think about everything Heathcott had gone through in his career up to that point. All the injuries, all the off-the-field problems. He had to overcome an awful lot to get to that point. It was so awesome.

The home run didn’t earn Heathcott more playing time — he received only eleven plate appearances the rest of the way — but he did see time as a defensive replacement and in the late innings of blowouts. The Yankees were in the postseason race and stuck with their regular veteran outfielders. I can’t fault Joe Girardi for that.

In 17 big league games this summer, Slade went 10-for-25 (.400) with two doubles, two home runs, and mean defense in right and center fields. He was also on the wildcard game roster but did not play. Heathcott hit .267/.315/.343 (90 wRC+) with two homers in 64 Triple-A games around the quad injury as well. All things considered, it was a successful bounceback from his injury plaque 2014 season.

Heathcott remains on the 40-man roster and he has a minor league option remaining for next season. If he stays healthy — that will always be a big if — Slade figures to again start the season with Triple-A Scranton, though a Brett Gardner trade could open up a big league roster spot. We’ll see how that works out. For now, he’s put himself in position to be a call-up candidate.

Flores. (Presswire)
Flores. (Presswire)

Next Up: Flores

Although he didn’t offer the same tools, Flores had been more productive than either Heathcott or Williams the last few years in the minors. He played well in Spring Training — he even hit a walk-off Grapefruit League homer (video) — and started the season with Triple-A Scranton. After Ellsbury and Heathcott got hurt, Flores was called up to the big leagues for the first time in late-May.

Flores made his MLB debut on May 30th in Oakland, and he stood out more for his glove than his bat at first. He made several stellar defensive plays in the spacious O.co Coliseum, including throwing a runner out at the plate (video) and making a diving catch in foul territory (video). The Yankees traveled to Seattle next and Flores threw another runner out at the plate, coincidentally Dustin Ackley.

Flores recorded his first career big league hit on a ground ball single against Jesse Chavez, and in his first nine games with the team, he went 7-for-26 (.269) with a double. That includes a 3-for-4 game against the Nationals on June 9th. The Yankees eventually decided to bring up a center field capable defender and Flores was sent back to Triple-A for a few weeks. He rejoined the Yankees in early-July for a few games after Carlos Beltran landed on the DL with an oblique strain. On July 4th, Flores bunted into a walk-off error.

The Yankees sent Flores back to Triple-A shortly thereafter, where he stayed until being traded to the Mariners with Jose Ramirez for Ackley at the deadline. Flores went 7-for-32 (.219) in 12 games with the Yankees and hit .286/.377/.417 (133 wRC+) with seven home runs in 73 Triple-A games before the trade. He played 14 games with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. The Mariners flipped him to the Brewers for infielder Luis Sardinas last week.

The Yankees have a lot of upper level outfield depth and something had to give. Flores was arguably the most productive of the group and I think he’s got a good chance to carve out a lengthy career as a platoon bat, but he’ll be out of minor league options next season and the Yankees don’t have a spot for him on the big league roster. Using him to get a piece who fits the roster better made perfect sense.

Williams. (Presswire)
Williams. (Presswire)

Third In Line: Williams

Like Heathcott, Williams is a tooled up outfielder whose stock had fallen big time in recent years. Slade’s stock fell because he kept getting hurt. Williams? His stock fell because he didn’t hit — .236/.298/.319 (74 wRC+) in over 1,200 minor league plate appearances from 2013-14 — and had attitude problems in the minors. The Yankees believed in the talent though and added him to the 40-man roster last offseason.

Williams did not play as much as Heathcott in Spring Training but he did play well, hitting .313/.400/.625 with three doubles and a triple in 15 Grapefruit League games. The Yankees assigned him to Double-A Trenton once again — Williams was there for part of 2013 and all of 2014 — and his hot spring carried over. Williams hit .317/.407/.375 (131 wRC+) with more walks (13.2%) than strikeouts (11.8%) in 34 games with the Thunder.

The Yankees bumped Williams up to Triple-A in mid-May to replace the called up Heathcott, then, after a few weeks with the RailRiders, Williams was called up to the big leagues, this time to replace Flores. He made his MLB debut as the starting center fielder on June 12th and hit a two-run home run for his first career hit in his second at-bat. Not a bad debut, eh?

Williams stayed in the lineup as the starting center fielder and, after a little three-game cold streak, he went 5-for-10 with three doubles, a walk, and no strikeouts during a four-game tear in mid-June. Through eight big league games, Williams had gone 6-for-21 (.286) with three doubles and a home run. He also made several spectacular catches in the outfield.

Unfortunately, Williams’ season came to a premature end on June 19th. He suffered a pretty fluke right (throwing) shoulder injury sliding back into first base on a pickoff throw. It was an innocent looking play. Williams just landed awkwardly and his shoulder popped in and out of the socket. He stayed in the game to run the bases but was lifted after the inning.

The Yankees placed Williams on the 15-day DL with inflammation and the injury wasn’t considered serious. The inflammation and discomfort never did go away though. On July 17th, almost exactly one month after getting hurt, the Yankees announced Williams needed season-ending surgery to clean up the shoulder. They slid him to the 60-day DL to clear 40-man space around that time as well.

Williams went 6-for-21 (.286) with those three doubles and that home run in eight MLB games before getting hurt. He hit .318/.397/.398 (133 wRC+) with 14 doubles, 13 steals, and more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (9.8%) in 54 total minor league games. It’s a shame he got hurt because Williams was doing a really great job re-establishing himself as a prospect.

Front shoulder injuries are tricky for hitters and it may take Williams some time to get back to 100% next year. He’s expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be all the way back. Either way, Williams is still on the 40-man roster and he has two option years left. He’ll stick around for a while, even if Heathcott is ahead of him on the call-up depth chart.

Yankees well-stocked with trade chips heading into the offseason

(Mike Stobe/Getty)
(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Over the last 12 months the Yankees have changed the way they do business. We’re used to seeing them throw money at their problems. They’ve been doing that for decades. Trades were the focus last offseason though, and whenever a need arose during the season, the Yankees called someone up from the minors. It was … different.

The Yankees have limited flexibility this winter. The roster is pretty full thanks to guaranteed contracts and whatnot, and with so little money coming off the books, there’s probably not much payroll space to work with either. Not unless Hal Steinbrenner approves a payroll increase, which he’s been hesitant to do over the years.

Trades again figure to be the focus this offseason. That allows the Yankees to both navigate their roster and payroll limitations while attempting to improve the team at the same time. They don’t all have to be blockbuster trades, of course. Shane Greene for Didi Gregorius was a low-key move that paid big dividends for the Yankees in 2015.

So, with trades again likely to dominate the winter months, let’s sort through the team’s trade chips and figure out who may be on a move.

The (Almost) Untouchables

As far as I’m concerned, the Yankees do not have any untouchable players. They have some players I wouldn’t trade unless the return is significant, but that doesn’t make them truly untouchable. Wouldn’t you trade, say, Luis Severino for Jose Fernandez? I know I would. The group of almost untouchables includes Severino, Gregorius, Dellin Betances, Aaron Judge, and Andrew Miller. That’s all of ’em in my book.

The Untradeables

The Yankees have several players who they couldn’t trade even if they wanted to due to performance or contract or something else, or in some cases all of the above. Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, and CC Sabathia headline this group. None of them are worth the money they’re owed and they all have full no-trade protection as well, so the Yankees would have to get their permission to move them.

There’s a second tier of big contract players who are not necessarily untradeable, but who would be difficult to move for various reasons. Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, and Masahiro Tanaka fit here. Teixeira and Beltran are entering the final year of their contracts, so they’d be short-term pickups, but they both have no-trade protection and have indicated a desire to stay in New York.

McCann, even while in decline, is still one of the better catchers in baseball. Maybe not top five anymore, but certainly top seven or eight. He’s got another three years and $51M left on his contract, and paying a catcher $17M per season is not something most teams can afford. Headley’s contract isn’t bad — three years and $39M is nothing — but he was below-average on both sides of the ball this season.

Tanaka is an interesting case. It seems like he’s neither as good nor as bad as many people think. Is he an ace? On his best days, yeah. But a 3.51 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 154 innings this year suggests he is more above-average than elite. Tanaka is also owed $22M in both 2016 and 2017 before his opt-out comes into play. He just had elbow surgery and teams are well aware his UCL is a grenade with the pin pulled. How in the world do you value him?

The Yankees could try to move any and all of these players. It’ll be tough though, either because their performance is down, their contracts are exorbitant, or they have no-trade protection. They’re untouchable, but in a different and bad way.

(Jim Rogash/Getty)
(Jim Rogash/Getty)

The Top Chip

Among the established players on the roster, Brett Gardner has by far the most trade value. It also helps that he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. (Gardner gets a $1M bonus if traded.) Gardner is owed only $39.5M over the next three years and he remains above-average on both sides of the ball. Even with his second half slump, he still put up a .259/.343/.399 (105 wRC+) batting line with 16 homers and 20 steals in 2015.

The Yankees can market Gardner as a two-way leadoff hitting center fielder to teams looking for outfield help but unable to afford top free agents like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. He’s affordable, he’s productive, and he’s a high-character guy who’s shown he can play and win in New York. Teams absolutely value that stuff. Getting a player of Gardner’s caliber on a three-year contract would be a major coup.

The real question is why would the Yankees trade Gardner? He’s arguably their best all-around player. They could move him to free up an outfield spot for, say, Heyward, but I think that’s unlikely. I also don’t think anyone in the minors is ready to step in and play left field regularly. Gardner is the only veteran on the team with actual trade value though. That’s why we’ll hear his name a lot this offseason.

The Top-ish Prospects

Beyond Judge, the Yankees have a few other high-end prospects they could trade for big league help, most notably Gary Sanchez, Jorge Mateo, and Rob Refsnyder. Greg Bird is technically no longer a prospect — he lost his rookie eligibility late in the season — but we can lump him in here too because he’s not exactly an established big leaguer yet. The elimination of the Pete Incaviglia Rule means the Yankees could trade James Kaprielian and any other 2015 draftees this winter, if they choose.

Sanchez and Mateo are the team’s best young trade chips among players who could actually be made available. (I don’t think the Yankees would trade Bird but I would in the right deal.) Sanchez is stuck behind McCann and John Ryan Murphy, and his defense probably isn’t up to the team’s standards. Mateo is an excellent prospect, but Gregorius is entrenched at the MLB level, and the Yankees are loaded with lower level shortstop prospects. They already offered Mateo in a trade once, remember. (For Craig Kimbrel at the deadline.)

The Yankees refused the trade Refsnyder this summer — the Athletics wanted him for Ben Zobrist — but they also refused to call him up for much of the year. It wasn’t until very late in the season that he got an opportunity. Refsnyder’s defense is improving but it is still an issue, and the truth is it may never be good enough for the Yankees. That doesn’t mean they’ll give him away though.

Second tier prospects like Eric Jagielo, Tyler Wade, Rookie Davis, and Jordan Montgomery could all be trade bait, though that’s true every offseason. The second tier prospects usually don’t bring back a whole lot unless there’s a salary dump involved. Either way, we can’t rule them out as trade chips.

The Outfielders & Relievers

The Yankees are very deep in Triple-A left-handed hitting outfielders and relievers. Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, and Jake Cave make up the crop of lefty hitting outfielders. Relievers? Gosh. There’s Chasen Shreve, Branden Pinder, Caleb Cotham, Nick Rumbelow, Nick Goody, James Pazos, healthy Jacob Lindgren, and I guess even Bryan Mitchell. He’s part of this group too, although he can start.

These are obvious positions of depth and the Yankees can and should use them in trades this offseason, if possible. The problem is they don’t have a ton of trade value. The Yankees already traded a lefty hitting outfielder (Ramon Flores) and a Triple-A reliever (Jose Ramirez) this year. The return was busted Dustin Ackley. So yeah. Heathcott and Williams have been both hurt and ineffective in recent years while Gamel lacks a track record of top end production. They have trade value, no doubt, but don’t expect them to headline any blockbusters.

The Spare Arms

The Yankees have a lot of pitchers but not a whole lot of pitching, if you catch my drift. The rotation ranked 19th with a 4.25 ERA and 15th with a 4.04 FIP this past season. Right smack in the middle of the pack. The Yankees have seven potential starters in place next year: Sabathia, Tanaka, Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, and Adam Warren. That group is a mixed bad of upside and mediocrity, I’d say.

Of the final four pitchers on that list, I’d say Nova has the least trade value because he was both hurt and terrible last year. Also, next season is his final year of team control before free agency. Eovaldi and Pineda are the embodiment of that “upside and mediocrity” group. They’re so obviously talented. But the results? Eh. Not great this year. Both are under team control for another two seasons, which is a plus.

Warren has proven himself as a very valuable member of the pitching staff. He’s basically a high-end version of Ramiro Mendoza. He can start or relieve and is very good in both roles, and he’s durable with a resilient arm. No injury problems at all since being drafted. Warren is under control another three years and the Yankees rejected the trade that would have sent him to the A’s with Refsnyder for Zobrist.

Personally, I don’t think the Yankees are in position to deal away pitching depth given some of the injury concerns in the rotation, but I thought that last year and they traded Greene anyway. As it turned out, they were planning to trade for another pitcher (Eovaldi) and bring in a low cost veteran for depth (Chris Capuano). They also had Warren waiting. The same could happen this year.

(Rich Schultz/Getty)
(Rich Schultz/Getty)

The Best of the Rest

There’s three players on the roster we haven’t covered. The best of the bunch is Murphy, a young and cheap catcher with defensive chops, a promising bat, and five years of team control remaining. I can’t imagine how many calls Brian Cashman has fielded about Murphy over the last 18 months or so. He’s really valuable and not just in a trade. To the Yankees too.

Justin Wilson is what every team looks for in a reliever: he throws hard and he misses bats. Being left-handed is a bonus. He struggles with control sometimes, and that’s why he’s only a reliever and not a starter or something more. Wilson has three years of control remaining, so his trade value is less than last offseason, when all it took to get him was an injury plagued backup catcher two years away from free agency. (What Francisco Cervelli did after the trade doesn’t change anything.)

Ackley is the third player and he doesn’t have much value. Flores and Ramirez. There’s his trade value, even after a strong finish to the season. Those 57 plate appearances with the Yankees didn’t erase his 2,200 plate appearances of awful with the Mariners. Given his versatility, Ackley is more valuable to the Yankees as a player than as a trade chip. I think the same is true of Wilson as well.

* * *

Last offseason taught me that pretty much no one is safe from trades other than the guys with no-trade clauses. I did not at all expect the Yankees to trade Greene or Martin Prado or even Manny Banuelos. Those were surprises. I would be surprised if the Yankees traded guys like Severino and Gregorius and Gardner this winter, but hey, anything can happen. Surprises are fun. The Yankees are well-armed with trade chips this winter. All shapes and sizes.

Bailey elects free agency; Yankees add Campos to 40-man roster, activate four off 60-day DL

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Busy transaction day for the Yankees. After releasing Chris Martin so he could sign with the Nippon Ham Fighters, the Yankees announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. Here’s the recap:

Campos, 23, returned from Tommy John surgery this year and had a 6.29 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 54.1 innings, mostly with High-A Tampa. Campos came over in the Michael Pineda/Jesus Montero trade and was once one of the top prospects in the organization, but injuries derailed him the last few seasons.

Brian Cashman said over the summer the team would consider adding Campos to the 40-man roster if his stuff returned following elbow reconstruction, and apparently it did. Campos would have become a minor league free agent this weekend had the Yankees not stuck him on the 40-man. He was on the 40-man in 2014 before getting hurt. The Yankees non-tendered Campos last offseason and re-signed him to a minor league deal.

Lindgren had surgery in June to remove bone spurs from his elbow. German and Whitley both blew out their elbows and needed Tommy John surgery. German had his in Spring Training while Whitley had his in May. Williams hurt his shoulder running into the outfield wall in mid-June and eventually needed surgery. There is no DL in the offseason. These four had to be activated no later than Friday.

The Yankees declined their $2M club option for Bailey earlier this week, but he remained under team control as an arbitration-eligible player. Apparently the team slipped him through waivers and dropped him from the 40-man roster. Rather than accept the minor league assignment, Bailey will try his hand at free agency. Makes sense. He seemed like a potential 40-man roster casualty this winter.

So, after all of that, the Yankees have just one open 40-man roster spot at the moment. The deadline to add players to the 40-man to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is November 20th. Two weeks from Friday. They’ll have to clear some more spots. Austin Romine, Caleb Cotham, and Jose Pirela stand out as candidates to be removed from the roster.

Yankees place Dustin Ackley on 15-day DL; Mason Williams to have shoulder surgery

Williams. (Presswire)
Williams. (Presswire)

The Yankees have placed utility man Dustin Ackley on the 15-day DL with a right lumbar strain, the team announced. Also, Brian Cashman told reporters Mason Williams will have shoulder surgery on August 7th, effectively ending his season. Blah.

Cashman said an MRI showed a herniated disc in Ackley’s back. He received an epidural and will be out 20-30 days. The Yankees are hoping Ackley can avoid surgery, which would end his season. The injury happened at some point after the trade. “He was a hot potato without realizing he was hot. The hot potato fell on our lap,” said the GM.

Ackley, 27, has never had any sort of back trouble before and this is the first time he’s ever been on the DL. He’s gone 0-for-3 at the plate since being acquired from the Mariners for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez last week. Ackley replaced Garrett Jones as the team’s fifth outfielder/backup first baseman.

Williams, meanwhile, has been out since mid-June with a right shoulder injury. He hurt himself diving back into first base on a pickoff play. Williams has been rehabbing his shoulder since the injury and has dealt with some setbacks, but the Yankees were optimistic he would avoid surgery. It won’t happen. That stinks.

The Yankees activated Slade Heathcott off the 60-day DL and optioned him to Triple-A on Friday, so he can’t be recalled until next Monday because of the ten-day rule. Rob Refsnyder, Tyler Austin, Jose Pirela, and Cole Figueroa are all on the 40-man and waiting in Triple-A. I wonder if the Yankees will just stick with a three-man bench and an eight-man bullpen for the time being.

DotF: Hendrix extends hitting streak in Staten Island’s win

IF Abi Avelino was named the High-A Florida State League Offensive Player of the Week, so congrats to him. Also, Chad Jennings posted a bunch of minor league notes earlier today, so make sure you go check ’em all out. Here are the important injury updates:

  • LHP Ian Clarkin (elbow inflammation) is currently on a throwing program “with no complaints,” according to assistant GM Billy Eppler. So now we know Clarkin is throwing with unknown intensity and frequency. Hooray? The left-hander hasn’t pitched at all in 2015 and it seems unlikely he will get into any games before the minor league season ends in a few weeks.
  • 3B Eric Jagielo (knee) had arthroscopic surgery last week and will resume baseball activities in eight weeks, so his season is effectively over. Maybe Jagielo can get healthy in time to play in the Arizona Fall League. The season usually begins in early-October.
  • LHP Jacob Lindgren (elbow) is “progressing well” following surgery to remove bone chips. He’s scheduled to begin a throwing program next week and the expectation is he will pitch again this season. Also, OF Mason Williams (shoulder) is still rehabbing and will be re-evaluated this week.
  • And finally, RHP Brady Lail has been promoted to Triple-A Scranton and RHP Rookie Davis has been promoted to Double-A Trenton, report Matt Kardos and Josh Norris. We probably see a few more guys promoted for final few weeks of the season as well.

Low-A Charleston (5-4 loss to Hagerstown, walk-off style)

  • SS Jorge Mateo: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 K, 1 E (fielding)
  • CF Austin Aune: 0-4, 3 K
  • RF Alex Palma: 0-4, 1 K — threw a runner out at second
  • RHP Chance Adams: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 29/7 K/BB in 21.1 innings for this year’s fifth rounder

[Read more…]

Game 93: Make It Eleven

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Thanks to last night’s win, the Yankees are ten games over .500 for the first time since September 13th, 2013. Yes, I too was surprised to find they were ten games over at one point in 2013. The Yankees haven’t been eleven games over .500 since the preview day, September 12th, and that’s what they’re looking to accomplish tonight. Eleven games over .500 and a bigger lead in the AL East.

Ivan Nova is on the mound tonight and he has been rather uneven since coming back from Tommy John surgery. That’s not really surprising, but it doesn’t make it any more enjoyable to watch. For now, all the elbow reconstruction has done is turn Nova from an inconsistent starter into an inconsistent starter with an excuse. Hopefully he shoves tonight. Here is Baltimore’s lineup and here is New York’s lineup:

  1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. LF Brett Gardner
  3. DH Alex Rodriguez
  4. 1B Mark Teixeira
  5. C Brian McCann
  6. RF Carlos Beltran
  7. 3B Chase Headley
  8. SS Didi Gregorius
  9. 2B Stephen Drew
    RHP Ivan Nova

It’s a wonderful day for baseball in New York. Clear skies and warm but not super hot. Pretty great. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET and you can watch the game on YES locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy, y’all.

Injury Update: Mason Williams (shoulder) is heading to Tampa tomorrow to continue his rehab. He’s been throwing and stuff, and the trip to Tampa usually means the player is ready to really ramp up his workouts. That doesn’t mean minor league rehab games are imminent, but Williams is getting closer.