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River Ave. Blues » Matt Sauer » Page 2

Sorting out the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2018

January 22, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa three weeks from tomorrow, and at some point soon, likely within the next two weeks, the Yankees will announce their 2018 Spring Training invitees. These are non-40-man roster players who get a chance to come to big league camp to strut their stuff. Some non-roster invitees are top prospects, some are middling prospects, and some are veteran journeymen trying to hang on.

Generally speaking, teams bring 20-25 non-roster players to Spring Training each year. Last year the Yankees initially invited 23 non-roster players before adding a few more within the first few days of camp. It was a World Baseball Classic year, so they needed extra bodies around while guys were away playing for their country. This is a normal year though, so 20-25 non-roster players. That sounds about right.

The Yankees still have a strong farm system despite the recent trades and graduations, and many of their top prospects are already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll be in camp automatically. Four of MLB.com’s top seven Yankees prospects are on the 40-man, so yeah. Spring Training is a great time to prospect watch. We’ll get a chance to see pretty much all the team’s best prospects at some point, 40-man roster or otherwise.

So, with Spring Training inching closer and non-roster invitees soon to be announced, now is a good time to preview the non-40-man roster players the Yankees could bring to camp this year. Last year I predicted 24 non-roster players and 20 of the 24 actually got the call, so go me. Hopefully I’ll have a similar success rate this year. Anyway, let’s get to the potential non-roster players.

Catchers

Every team brings lots of catchers to Spring Training each year because hey, who is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions? That’s really all there is to it. There are lots of pitchers in camp who need regular work to get up to speed, and teams can’t overload three or four catchers early in camp. Imagine making Gary Sanchez squat four hours a day to catch bullpens before games even start? Nope. Not gonna happen. The Yankees will again bring plenty of non-roster catchers to camp.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Erik Kratz, Chace Numata, Jorge Saez. Kratz re-signed on a minor league deal a few weeks ago and as a big league veteran who spent September with the Yankees and traveled with the team in the postseason, it’s safe to assume he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player. Diaz and Saez are organizational depth catchers who were in camp last year. (Diaz re-signed as a minor league free agent earlier this winter.) The Yankees picked up Numata a few weeks ago and given the fact he has Double-A experience, it makes sense that he’d get the call for Spring Training. Sanchez, Austin Romine, and Kyle Higashioka are on the 40-man, making it seven catchers total for Spring Training.

Infielders

Solak. (@MLBPipeline)

The infield mix this spring should be pretty interesting. The Yankees have openings at second and third bases, and while youngsters like Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar may be the favorites for those jobs, I have to think the team will cover their bases and bring in plenty of options. Torres, Andujar, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Ronald Torreyes are all on the 40-man already. Those are your top five second/third base candidates.

On the prospect front, Nick Solak strikes me as a logical non-roster player given his status as a recent high draft pick (second round in 2016) and success at Double-A last season (.286/.344/.429 for a 112 wRC+), even though it came in a 30-game cameo. My hunch is Kyle Holder will get some non-roster time as well. He’s another recent high draft pick (supplemental first round in 2015) who had a good-ish year in 2017. The Yankees like him enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. I think Holder gets the invite as basically the last infielder and is among the first cuts.

Younger lower level infield prospects like Hoy Jun Park, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, and Oswaldo Cabrera aren’t non-roster material. Big league camp isn’t the appropriate place for them at this point in their careers. The Yankees will, however, bring another first baseman to camp. Greg Bird and Tyler Austin are the only 40-man players at the position now. The Yankees tried to re-sign Ji-Man Choi, who recently signed with the Brewers. I imagine they’ll target another Triple-A first baseman. Looking at the list of free agents … maybe Tyler Moore? We’ll see.

I also expect the Yankees to bring in another veteran infielder on a minor league deal. They’ve already signed Jace Peterson, but remember how many infield spots they have to fill. There’s second, third, and the backup spot at the MLB level. Then there’s second, third, short, and the backup spot in Triple-A. That’s seven infielders. Right now the Yankees have Torres, Andujar, Wade, Estrada, Torreyes, and Peterson for six of those seven spots. So yeah, another minor league contract infielder is coming.

My Prediction: Holder, Solak, Peterson, an infielder yet to be signed, and a first baseman yet to be signed. If the Yankees don’t sign a first baseman — that would really surprise me, but I suppose it’s not impossible — Ryan McBroom would be the third Spring Training first baseman almost by default. Billy McKinney, who is on the 40-man and started playing first in the Arizona Fall League, also figures to see time at the position.

Outfielders

Last year the Yankees invited two non-roster outfielders to camp: Clint Frazier and Dustin Fowler. Frazier, assuming he isn’t traded between now and reporting date, is on the 40-man and will be in camp automatically. Fowler is with the A’s. The Yankees are overloaded with outfielders at the moment, so they have more than enough bodies to cover all those innings during Grapefruit League play.

Now, that said, the Yankees tend to bring their very best prospects to camp each season, which means Estevan Florial is a good bet to receive a non-roster invite. He went to the Futures Game last year, finished the season with a quick Double-A cameo, and went to the Arizona Fall League. And he is one of the 100 or so best prospects in baseball. Even though he turned only 20 in November, Florial is sufficiently top prospecty enough for a non-roster invite at this point of his career.

My Prediction: Florial. That’s it. Other outfield prospects like Isiah Gilliam, Rashad Crawford, and Alex Palma are a no. Keep in mind the Yankees have nine outfielders on the 40-man at the moment: Frazier, McKinney, Jabari Blash, Jake Cave, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Peterson and Wade can also play the outfield. The Yankees are plenty covered.

Right-handers

Adams. (Presswire)

The Yankees have more high-end young pitching in the farm system than at any point in the last 10-15 years. One small problem: Most of it is in the low minors. Teenagers like Matt Sauer, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, and Deivi Garcia aren’t coming to big league camp. They don’t belong there. They’re not ready for it. Even the Single-A guys in their early-20s like Freicer Perez and Taylor Widener won’t get invited. It’s not their time. Clarke Schmidt, last year’s first round pick, is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he won’t get a non-roster invite. There’s no point.

Even ruling out the generally inexperienced lower level guys, the Yankees have no shortage of quality right-handed pitching prospects to invite to camp. Chief among them: Chance Adams and Dillon Tate. Adams was in camp last season and could be the first guy called up when a sixth starter is needed this season, so of course he’s coming to camp. Tate was not a non-roster guy last year, but now that he has some Double-A time under his belt, it stands to reason he’ll get the invite.

On the bullpen side, I think J.P. Feyereisen will return to big league camp this spring — he was in camp last year — even though he didn’t have a great 2017 season and was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s someone who could find himself in the big leagues rather quickly if he starts the season well and the Yankees have a need. The Yankees will want the new coaching staff to get to know him. Same with Cody Carroll, last year’s breakout relief prospect, who finished the season in Double-A and dominated in the Arizona Fall League.

My Prediction: Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Tate, Brady Lail, and a minor league contract guy yet to be signed. I get the feeling a depth arm signing is coming. As for Lail, he was a non-roster player each of the last two years, so the Yankees like him. Maybe they don’t like him as much now after a tough Triple-A season last year (5.17 ERA and 4.76 FIP), but I’m going to play it safe and say he gets another invite. There are always innings to be soaked up. Reminder: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all on the 40-man roster. They’ll be in camp. I’m looking forward to seeing Johnny Lasagna. Moreso than another other non-40-man prospect this spring.

Left-handers

Realistically, there’s only one worthwhile left-handed pitching prospect in the organization: Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is the Yankees’ top pitching prospect overall and he was in camp as a non-roster player last year, so of course he’ll be back this year. He made only two appearances totaling 3.2 innings last spring. I’d bet on a little more action this time around.

James Reeves and Stephen Tarpley are the two other non-40-man southpaws worth a mention. Reeves was actually in camp as a non-roster player last spring, but he suffered an elbow injury early on and didn’t pitch. Once healthy, he had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 46 innings, and he reached Double-A. Reeves has a classic low arm slot left-on-left matchup profile …

… the kind of profile that seems to be dying out around baseball, but the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp last spring, and after he season he just had, I expect him to be back in big league camp this year. As for Tarpley, he had an unreal 2017 season, throwing 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) and a strong strikeout rate (26.9%) but a not-so-strong walk rate (11.5%). The numbers are good, but Tarpley went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft last month, and teams usually gobble up any left-hander they think has a chance to be useful. Hmmm.

My Prediction: Sheffield, Reeves, Tarpley, and Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc is on a minor league contract with an invite to camp, so he’ll be there. I think Tarpley gets an invite because the Yankees are short on 40-man roster lefties — the only southpaws on the 40-man are Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, and Chasen Shreve — and clubs generally like to bring in plenty of lefties just to take inventory. See who could be an option at some point, you know?

* * *

Putting it all together, we come away with 20 non-roster players. Here is the breakdown:

  • Catchers (4): Diaz, Kratz, Numata, Saez
  • Infielders (5): Holder, Solak, Peterson, mystery infielder, mystery first baseman
  • Outfielders (1): Florial
  • Right-handers (6): Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Lail, Tate, mystery minor league signing
  • Left-handers (4): Reeves, Sheffield, Tarpley, LeBlanc

That’s probably not enough players. Last year the Yankees had 23 non-roster players initially before adding a few others during the first days of camp. They had 26 non-roster players in camp in both 2015 and 2016. My total of 20 potential non-roster players is light. There will be a few more players in camp.

Like I said, the Yankees are almost certainly not done signing journeymen like Kratz, Peterson, and LeBlanc to minor league deals. The Yankees had five veterans (Choi, Jason Gurka, Ruben Tejada, Donovan Solano, Pete Kozma) on minor league deals in camp last spring, for reference. A few more signings are coming and will get the non-roster list over 20 names.

Also, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will be more open to bringing lower level prospects to camp this spring. Maybe they let Donny Sands catch some bullpens, or give Park a taste of big league life, or let someone like Perez or Widener air it out for a few innings to showcase them as trade chips. Those 20 names above are the core non-roster players. A few minor minor league signings and a surprise prospect or two (like Daniel Camarena last year) figure to round out this year’s crop of invitees.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Alex Palma, Brady Lail, Chace Numata, Chance Adams, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, Dillon Tate, Donny Sands, Erik Kratz, Estevan Florial, Francisco Diaz, Freicer Perez, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, J.P. Feyereisen, Jace Peterson, James Reeves, Jorge Saez, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Holder, Luis Medina, Matt Sauer, Nick Solak, Oswaldo Cabrera, Rashad Crawford, Roansy Contreras, Ryan McBroom, Stephen Tarpley, Steven Sensley, Taylor Widener, Wade LeBlanc

The Farm System That Fueled The Yankees’ Surprising Success [2017 Season Review]

December 19, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Gleyber. (Yankees Magazine)
Gleyber. (Yankees Magazine)

Coming into the 2017 season, the Yankees had arguably the best farm system in baseball, thanks largely to last summer’s trade deadline deals. The development of players already in the system contributed to that as well. It would be wrong to credit the farm system turnaround to the trades only. Player development helped too.

That highly ranked farm system helped the Yankees get to within one game of the World Series this year. The system pumped productive players into the big league roster and also gave the Yankees plenty of trade chips. And, amazingly enough, the Yankees still have a very good farm system. Jim Callis rated the system as the fourth best in baseball back in August, after the trade deadline and all the graduations. Pretty incredible. Let’s review the year that was down on the farm.

The Graduates

Might as well start with the players who are no longer prospects. MLB’s rookie limits are 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched, and according to that, the Yankees graduated a very impressive group of prospects to the big leagues: OF Clint Frazier (season review), RHP Chad Green (season review), OF Aaron Judge (season review), and LHP Jordan Montgomery (season review). Also, IF Tyler Wade (season review) is no longer rookie eligible due to service time, not at-bats.

Judge set a new rookie record with 52 home runs, earning him the AL Rookie of the Year award (unanimously) and the runner-up spot for the AL MVP. Green was a top ten reliever in baseball this season despite not getting called up until early-May. Montgomery led all rookie starters in WAR. Frazier and Wade did not have that sort of impact this season, though Frazier did hit a walk-off homer, and that’s pretty cool. By WAR, no team in baseball received more production from their farm system in 2017. It wasn’t even close.

The Top Prospect

There was no change atop the organizational prospect list this year. The top prospect going into Spring Training is still the top prospect today. That is both good news and bad news. It’s good news because that prospect, SS Gleyber Torres, is really freaking good. He was a consensus top five prospect coming into the season and MLB.com currently ranks him as the second best prospect in baseball, behind Japanese league veteran Shohei Ohtani.

It is also bad news because had things gone according to plan this season, Torres would not be a prospect right now. He would’ve made his MLB debut at some point and likely accrued enough playing time to land with the graduated prospects. Instead, Torres’ season ended on June 16th, when he managed to tear the ulnar collateral ligament in his non-throwing elbow during a slide into home plate. What a fluky injury.

“(Torres) was starting to conquer the International League and then he got hurt,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty last week. “The way his trajectory was going, I think you would have seen him in the big leagues last year some point in the end. You may very well have seen him as the DH or third base. It may have prevented us from trading for Todd Frazier. Who knows. We never did find out because he didn’t get more time.”

Torres started the year by tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training — he hit .448/.469/.931 with nine extra-base hits (six doubles, one triple, two homers) and four singles in 32 Grapefruit League plate appearances — so much so that some wanted him on the Opening Day roster in place of the injured Didi Gregorius. I don’t mean fans either. Members of Joe Girardi’s coaching staff wanted to take Gleyber north out of camp.

“Our Major League staff wanted him ‘now.’ They wanted him to break camp and then play him at shortstop,” said Cashman to Ron Blum last week. “We just felt it was important for him to crawl before you walk, and walk before you run, and I didn’t want him drinking out of a fire hose in April. So I took my time, and I think it was the right move for him and for us.”

Torres went to Double-A Trenton and hit .273/.367/.496 (138 wRC+) in 32 games while being more than four years younger than the average Eastern League player. Then, after being promoted to Triple-A Scranton, he hit .309/.406/.457 (145 wRC+) in 23 games before the injuries. He was nearly seven years younger than the average International League player. Torres finished the season with a .287/.383/.480 (141 wRC+) batting line, seven homers, 12.8% walks, and 20.0% strikeouts in 55 minor league games.

As far as we know, Gleyber’s rehab is going well — he posts occasional workout videos on social media — well enough that Cashman confirmed Torres asked to play winter ball. The Yankees said no, however. They want him to come to Spring Training at full strength, not rush him back. We’ll see how what happens the rest of the offseason, though as things stand, there are openings at second and third base, and Torres could get a chance to win one of those jobs next spring. This time the coaching staff may get their wish and he’ll be included on the Opening Day roster.

The Other Top Prospects

Sheffield. (Presswire)
Sheffield. (Presswire)

I think there are two pretty defined tiers at the top of the farm system at the moment. There’s Gleyber and then there are the other guys who are top 100 caliber prospects. Will they all appear in top 100 lists next spring? Probably not, but I am sure they will all receive consideration, at the very least. Personal favorite 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) is among them. Even after graduating Judge and Frazier, the Yankees could still boast five or six top 100 prospects next year. That’s pretty cool.

LHP Justus Sheffield, who came over from the Indians with Frazier in the Andrew Miller trade, started the season as a 20-year-old in Double-A and threw 93.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA (4.58 FIP) and 20.3% strikeouts and 8.2% walks before an oblique injury shut him down. Sheffield returned in time to pitch in the Arizona Fall League (3.10 ERA in 20.1 innings) and was so impressive one scout told Josh Norris he had “No.1 starter-type stuff.” A lefty with good velocity and two potential out-pitch secondary pitches is a mighty fine prospect, and it is not out of the question that Sheffield will make his MLB debut at some point in 2018.

The Yankees’ other top pitching prospect, RHP Chance Adams, was impressive in his second full season as a starting pitcher, pitching to a 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 22.3% strikeouts and 9.6% walks in 150.1 innings at mostly Triple-A. The Yankees had plenty of opportunities to call Adams up this season, though they passed each time, which tells us they believe he still has some things to improve. And that’s okay. He just turned 24 and has been a starter for only two years. I thought Adams would debut in 2017 and it didn’t happen. If he doesn’t debut in 2018 though, something will have gone wrong.

RHP Albert Abreu came over in the Brian McCann trade last winter — the Yankees didn’t stop trading veterans for prospects at the 2016 deadline — and he was awfully impressive around elbow and lat injuries, throwing 53.1 innings with a 3.37 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.6% strikeouts and 8.1% walks at two Single-A levels. The injuries are a red flag, obviously, though the good news is Abreu was healthy enough to throw 27.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. Abreu has a legitimate four-pitch mix and might have the best stuff in the system. Even with the injuries, he upped his stock this year by improving his control.

The Trade Chips

Aside from producing the AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP runner-up, as well as several other contributing youngsters, the farm system also helped the Yankees by providing trade chips. We knew this was coming too. There is only so much roster space to go around, so the Yankees either had to trade some prospects, to risk losing them for nothing in the roster crunch. Heck, they made trades and still lost four players in the Rule 5 Draft.

The Yankees dipped into the prospect depth to make three trades this summer. Most notably, they shipped RHP James Kaprielian, SS/OF Jorge Mateo, and OF Dustin Fowler (season review) to the Athletics for Sonny Gray and $1.5M in international bonus money. Coming into the season Kaprielian (No. 5), Mateo (No. 7), and Fowler (No. 12) all ranked among my top 12 prospects in the system. That’s a lot of talent! There’s also more to the story.

Both Kaprielian and Fowler were damaged goods. Fowler blew out his knee crashing into the side wall at Guaranteed Rate Field in his first inning as a big leaguer, and Kaprielian underwent Tommy John surgery in April. He never took the mound this season. And that’s after a flexor injury limited Kaprielian to 45 innings in 2016. Since being the 16th overall pick in the 2015 draft, the soon-to-be 24-year-old Kaprielian has thrown 56.1 pro innings. He’s lost a lot of development time.

Mateo, meanwhile, was looking to bounce back from a wholly disappointing 2016 season, in which he hit .254/.306/.379 (99 wRC+) in 113 High-A games and was suspended two weeks for violating team rules. He hit .240/.288/.400 (98 wRC+) in 69 High-A games to begin this season, was promoted to Double-A anyway, and hit .300/.381/.525 (147 wRC+) in 30 games at the level. The Yankees also had Mateo begin working out in center field.

Mateo. (Presswire)
Mateo. (Presswire)

Aside from those 30 Double-A games before the trade, Mateo’s performance has not been good the last two years, yet the A’s loved his talent so much that they took him as the only healthy player in the Gray trade. In the end, the Yankees traded three of the dozen best prospects in their system for a potential impact starter in Gray, and all three of those prospects had seen their stock slip since Opening Day. Fowler and Kaprielian were seriously hurt and Mateo hadn’t performed aside from a month-long stint in Double-A immediately prior to the trade.

A few weeks prior to the Gray trade, the Yankees traded three prospects, including 2016 first round pick OF Blake Rutherford, to acquire David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier from the White Sox. Rutherford’s first full pro season was not going as hoped — he was hitting .281/.342/.391 (113 wRC+) with two homers in 71 Low-A games at the time of the trade — and my guess is that if he was living up to the hype, he would not have been traded. Rutherford hit .213/.289/.254 (63 wRC+) in 30 Low-A games after the trade, so yeah.

LHP Ian Clarkin, a 2013 first round pick, was also included in the trade. He’s been hampered by injuries over the years and, at the time of the trade, he had a 2.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) with 18.7% strikeouts and 8.0% walks in 75.2 innings at High-A. Clarkin made only three starts with the White Sox after the trade due to an oblique injury. The third prospect in the trade, OF Tito Polo, hit .307/.369/.455 (139 wRC+) with five homers and 27 steals in 74 games split between High-A and Double-A before going to Chicago. The ChiSox did not add Polo to the 40-man roster after the season and he was not selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Clarkin was added to the 40-man.

Also at the deadline, the Yankees turned two depth arms into Jaime Garcia, who provided rotation depth down the stretch. LHP Dietrich Enns, a stats before stuff guy, had a 2.29 ERA (2.70 FIP) in 39.1 Triple-A innings before the trade while missing time with a shoulder issue. RHP Zack Littell had a 1.87 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 115.1 High-A and Double-A innings before the trade, though the presence of many higher upside arms made his spot in the organization uncertain. Would the Yankees have 40-man roster space for him after the season? Rather than answer that question, the Yankees used Littell in a trade to help the MLB roster.

The Breakout Prospects

There may not have been a bigger breakout prospect in all the minors this season than OF Estevan Florial. The just turned 20-year-old spent most of the season with Low-A Charleston, hitting .298/.372/.479 (145 wRC+) with 13 homers and 23 steals in 110 total games. That earned Florial a spot in the Futures Game. His walk rate (10.1%) was very good. His strikeout rate (31.1%)? Not so much. Making more contact is the top priority going forward because everything else Florial does on the field is explosive. Power, speed, defense, you name it.

An argument can be made Florial is the second best prospect in the system behind Torres right now. I don’t have him that high in the system just yet — not gonna lie, the contact issues worry me, though he’s still so young and has plenty of time to improve — but it is clear Florial has emerged as a top 100 caliber prospect and one of the most tooled up outfielders in the minors. He has some things to work on. No doubt. Everyone does. But Florial’s emergence this year helped make Rutherford and Fowler expendable.

Florial. (Trust me.) (Presswire)
Florial. (Trust me.) (Presswire)

IF Thairo Estrada, a personal favorite, went from interesting low level guy to 40-man roster player this year by hitting .301/.353/.392 (107 wRC+) with a tiny little 10.3% strikeout rate in 122 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A. The Yankees added Thairo to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month and while he’s not another Gleyber or Andujar, Estrada can be the rich man’s Ronald Torreyes thanks to his contact skills and sure-handed defense all around the infield.

It might be a stretch to consider 2B Nick Solak a true breakout player, but the fact of the matter is that in his first full minor league season, the soon-to-be 23-year-old authored a .297/.384/.452 (143 wRC+) batting line with 12 homers, 14 steals, 11.7% walks, and 18.6% strikeouts in 130 games and reached Double-A. That is pretty darn good. Solak has some Rob Refsnyder in him — he’s a hitter first and a second baseman second — though he has more pop than Refsnyder and has a much better chance of staying at second base. I can’t help but feel like he’s trade bait.

Two years ago the Yankees gave 20th round pick OF Isiah Gilliam a well over slot $550,000 bonus because they like his power from both sides of the plate, and this season he put together a .275/.356/.468 (137 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers, 10.8% walks, and 21.7% strikeouts in 125 games, all with Low-A Charleston. He also showed he could handle the outfield full-time after spending most of the junior college career at first base. Gilliam turned 21 late in the season and his power is legit. That $550,000 looks like money well spent so far.

On the pitching side, there was no bigger breakout player this season than RHP Jorge Guzman, who played so well he was the top prospect in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. The 21-year-old came over with Abreu in the McCann trade and emerged as a top ten prospect in the system by throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.30 ERA (2.47 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (6.8%) rates for Short Season Staten Island. Guzman is an extreme hard-thrower — he reportedly sat 98-99 mph as a starter all summer — who made strides with his secondary stuff this year. As promising a prospect as he is — I think Guzman will pop up on top 100 lists come midseason — parting with a low level arm like Guzman for Stanton is a no-brainer.

RHP Taylor Widener made the college reliever to pro starter transition a la Adams, and he responded with 119.1 innings of 3.39 ERA (3.05 FIP) ball for High-A Tampa. His strikeout rate (26.4%) was good. His walk rate (10.2%) was not. Widener does not have Adams’ stuff — he lacks a legitimate put-away breaking ball or offspeed pitch — though remaining a starter long-term is not completely out of the questions now. If nothing else, Widener has raised his stock and could be a trade chip.

The Emerging Young Arms

A year ago the Yankees had a position player heavy farm system. Now they’re loaded with pitching, most of it in the low minors. RHP Domingo Acevedo is one of the exceptions. He pitched at three levels in 2017, including Double-A and Triple-A, and he finished with a 3.25 ERA (3.25 FIP) and 26.0% strikeouts and 6.2% walks in 133 total innings. Right now the 23-year-old Acevedo succeeds mostly by filling the strike zone with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, but he’ll have to improve his breaking ball to remain a starter long-term.

In the lower minors, RHP Luis Medina quickly established himself as one of the highest upside pitchers in the system despite throwing 38.2 rookie ball innings with a 5.35 ERA (3.98 FIP) and 22.7% strikeouts and 14.0% walks. The 18-year-old signed for $300,000 in July 2015 and has easy 97-100 mph heat with two potential knockout secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. Medina has a long way to go from where he is to big league starter, but gosh, the kid can really bring it. He’s a long-term project with frontline starter upside.

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, a 23-year-old Giants castoff with 103.2 career innings in parts of five seasons, earned a spot on the 40-man roster by throwing 32.2 innings with a 1.38 ERA (2.17 FIP) and 27.2% strikeouts and 2.5% walks in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s a tiny little guy (5-foot-11 and 165 lbs.) with a big arm, routinely sitting 93-97 mph with his fastball and backing it up with a power curveball and quality changeup. Not every prospect is a high draft pick or big money international signing. Sometimes a scrap heap signing like Loaisiga turns into a legit prospect worth a 40-man spot.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more classic Yankees pitching prospect than Loaisiga — Perez stands 6-foot-8 and 190 lbs. — and he’s gradually added velocity as a pro as he’s added muscle and refined his mechanics. The 21-year-old spent the season with Low-A Charleston and had a 2.84 ERA (3.59 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 8.7% walks in 123.2 innings. Perez has some clunkiness in his delivery …

… which makes it difficult for him to stay on top of his curveball, though he is gaining consistency with the pitch. A mid-90s fastball and a surprisingly good changeup round out his repertoire. The Yankees signed Perez for a mere $10,000 back in December 2014 and he’s come a long way with his mechanics and his control.

It can be easy to stereotype Latin America pitching prospects as raw hard-throwers, but that does not describe 18-year-old RHP Roansy Contreras, a four-pitch pitcher with low-90s gas and a plan. His performance this season wasn’t great — he threw 53.2 rookie ball innings with a 4.02 ERA (4.18 FIP) with 14.0% strikeouts and 7.0% walks — though it’s rookie ball, so who cares. Contreras has the projectability to add velocity and the pitching acumen to further refine his secondary pitches. He’s quite the sleeper.

The Garcias — RHP Deivi Garcia and RHP Rony Garcia — are similar in that they’re teenage prospects with good velocity and a quality curveball. Deivi, 18, had a 3.30 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 36.6% strikeouts and 8.2% walks in 60 rookie ball innings this year. His curveball is said to have an elite spin rate. Rony, 19, had a 2.50 ERA (3.74 FIP) with 18.2% strikeouts and 5.5% walks in 75.2 rookie ball innings, and he operated with a low-to-mid-90s cutter and a snappy upper-70s curveball. Both Garcias are 2018-19 breakout candidates.

The Rebound Prospects

When the Yankees made their trade deadline deals last year, they targeted several once highly touted buy low candidates they’d try to rebuild. Among them was RHP Dillon Tate, the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft and part of the Carlos Beltran trade. Tate missed time with a shoulder problem this year, but when he returned, he had a 2.81 ERA (3.95 FIP) with 18.4% strikeouts and 7.0% walks in 83.1 innings split between High-A and Low-A. More importantly, his stuff bounced all the way back after a down 2016 season. From Keith Law (subs. req’d):

On Tuesday night, he started Game 1 of the Eastern League championship series for Trenton, and was sitting at 94-97 mph from the windup with more fastball life than he’d shown last year in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever, along with a much-improved changeup that I think has surpassed his slider to become his best off-speed pitch … Tate still has starter potential, even good starter potential, but there are a couple of specific facets to his game that have to improve for him to get there.

OF Billy McKinney was part of the Aroldis Chapman trade and he rebounded from a tough 2016 season to hit .277/.338/.483 (124 wRC+) in 124 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His 16 home runs were easily a new career high. That was enough to land McKinney on the 40-man roster and enough for the Yankees to have him try first base in the Arizona Fall League as they look for a way to get him into the lineup.

Although he was not acquired at the 2016 trade deadline, OF Jake Cave qualifies as a rebound prospect because his stock is at an all-time high following several up and down seasons. The 25-year-old posted a .305/.351/.542 (145 wRC+) line with a career high 20 home runs — his previous career high was eight homers — in 103 games at Double-A and Triple-A. He credited the success to a new emphasis on elevating the ball. To wit:

  • 2015: 55.3 GB% and 17.9 K%
  • 2016: 44.0 GB% and 22.5 K%
  • 2017: 42.0 GB% and 26.3 K%

Fewer ground balls and more strikeouts are classic signs a player is selling out for power, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. Cave’s career had kinda stalled out and he made adjustments that landed him a spot on the 40-man roster. He and McKinney are both left-handed hitting outfielders who experienced Triple-A success this season. The fact Cave can play center field — and play it well — gives him the edge over McKinney as a prospect in my opinion.

RHP Nick Rumbelow, who spent some big league time with the Yankees in 2015, returned from Tommy John surgery at midseason and was dynamite, throwing 40.1 innings with a 1.12 ERA (1.89 FIP) and 29.4% strikeouts and 7.2% walks between Double-A and Triple-A. Rumbelow was so good the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster after the season, and the Mariners then traded two prospects (LHP JP Sears and RHP Juan Then) to the Yankees to get him. Sears has left-on-left matchup potential and Then is a lower level prospect with starter upside.

The New Faces

The Yankees subtracted way more prospects via trade this season than they acquired. In addition to Sears and Then, the Yankees added 1B Ryan McBroom in a minor trade with the Blue Jays. Refsnyder went the other way. McBroom is a right-handed hitting and left-handed throwing first baseman who hit .257/.327/.379 (96 wRC+) with four homers in 38 Double-A games after the trade. He hit .247/.323/.395 (98 wRC+) with 16 homers overall in 2017. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is a fringe prospect who might hold down first base in Scranton in 2018.

RHP Matt Frawley, a 17th round pick in last year’s draft, came over from the Pirates for Johnny Barbato. The 22-year-old had a statistically excellent season — he threw 71.2 innings between Low-A and High-A, and finished with a 1.63 ERA (2.24 FIP) and 26.7% strikeouts and 4.2% walks — and is a low-to-mid-90s fastball/curveball reliever. Frawley figures to open 2018 at Double-A and could be a big league option come 2019.

A few weeks ago the Yankees sent Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith to the Marlins for international bonus money and RHP Mike King, Miami’s 12th round pick in last summer’s draft. The 22-year-old threw 149 innings this year, all at Low-A, with a 3.14 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 17.8% strikeouts and 3.5% walks. King is a low-90s fastball/slider guy with very good command. I suspect the Yankees will move him into the bullpen at some point to see what happens when he airs it out for an inning or two.

King. (@7Kinger14 on Twitter)
King. (@7Kinger14 on Twitter)

The Yankees also acquired RHP Yoiber Marquina from the Indians as the player to be named later in last offseason’s Nick Goody trade, though the 21-year-old did not pitch in 2017 as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. Marquina is a legitimate prospect though, sitting in the low-90s with a usable curveball and changeup. He had a 3.16 ERA (2.90 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 31.1 Low-A innings last year, before his elbow gave out.

Of course, the Yankees also added talent through the 2017 draft as well. They signed 23 of their 40 picks, including the top 22. First round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt did not pitch after the draft as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. RHP Matt Sauer, the club’s second rounder, had a 5.40 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 21.1% strikeouts and 14.0% walks in 11.2 rookie ball innings after signing. Third rounder RHP Trevor Stephan was a monster in his pro debut, posting a 1.31 ERA (1.74 FIP) with 34.1% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 34.1 pro innings, mostly with Short Season Staten Island.

The Yankees may have found a diamond in the rough in 12th rounder OF Steven Sensley, who hit .292/.370/.584 (157 wRC+) with 13 home runs at three levels after the draft, climbing as high as Low-A Charleston. We’ve seen plenty of guys have big pro debuts and do nothing after, so we’ll see what Sensley does next year, but the scouting report is intriguing. Sensley has power, a plan at the plate, and good athleticism. Here are our Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

The Best of the Rest

Not counting the guys who graduated or were traded away, I’ve covered 32 prospects in this post already. I count about 15 others I haven’t covered who would land in a “normal” top 30 prospects list. The Yankees have a lot of depth in their system. Not everyone is going to be a star, but they have a lot of players who project to be useful big leaguers. Those guys can be plugged into the roster when help is needed or traded. Here are the other notable players who spent at least part of 2017 in the farm system (age in parentheses).

  • IF Abi Avelino (22): Avelino has become an organizational utility infielder — he hit .254/.304/.356 (82 wRC+) in 98 games at three levels and all different positions — and could really use a fresh start somewhere else.
  • IF Oswaldo Cabrera (18): Cabrera’s skills don’t show up in the stats: .252/.306/.321 (85 wRC+) with four homers in 112 games at the lower levels. He has good bat-to-ball skills, good defensive chops, and is a very hard worker.
  • C Gustavo Campero (20): The 5-foot-6 backstop hit .304/.444/.545 (179 wRC+) with three homers, 13 steals, and more walks (27) than strikeouts (23) in 36 rookie ball games. Can he hit more advanced pitching? Can he catch? Those are the questions going forward.
  • RHP Cody Carroll (25): Very hard-throwing reliever posted a 2.54 ERA (3.04 FIP) with 32.1% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in 67.1 innings at High-A and Double-A. Carroll needs to be more consistent with his slider and control, but he figures to be a big league option in 2018.
  • SS Diego Castillo (20): Contact maestro hit .263/.310/.315 (83 wRC+) with 10.0% strikeouts in 118 Low-A games. He’s a way better prospect than the stat line indicates. Castillo has great contact skills, he can really play shortstop, and he’s very instinctual.
  • LHP Nestor Cortes (23): Cortes had another dominant statistical season, throwing 104.2 innings with a 2.06 ERA (2.86 FIP) and 24.8% strikeouts at three levels. He was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft, so we might get to see how his soft-tossing approach works against big leaguers in 2018.
  • RHP Juan De Paula (20): De Paula, who was part of the Ben Gamel trade, quietly posted a 2.90 ERA (3.08 FIP) in 62 innings with Short Season Staten Island. He’s a pitchability guy with a deep arsenal.
  • RHP J.P. Feyereisen (24): In 63.1 upper level innings, Feyereisen managed a 3.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 23.3% strikeouts and 10.9% walks. Despite touching triple digits with his fastball, an inconsistent slider kept Feyereisen from being picked in the Rule 5 Draft.
  • RHP Drew Finley (21): Injuries continue to hamper the former third round pick. Finley threw 33.1 low level innings with a 6.48 ERA (4.51 FIP), and his stuff has backed up a bit since he was drafted in 2015.
  • 3B Dermis Garcia (19): No one in the farm system has more power than Dermis, who hit .249/.357/.542 (144 wRC+) with 17 homers and 14.3% walks in only 63 low level games. He has to get the strikeouts (30.5%) under control though, especially with a move to first base looking more and more likely.
  • SS Wilkerman Garcia (19): Second straight disappointing season for Wilkerman, who once upon a time was a top ten prospect in the system. He hit .222/.256/.296 (64 wRC+) in 67 games with Short Season Staten Island.
  • SS Kyle Holder (23): The defensive wiz hit .271/.317/.350 (95 wRC+) at High-A this year and seems to be getting a little better with the bat with each passing year. I’m buying.
  • RHP Brian Keller (23): Last year’s 39th round pick ripped up the low minors (3.13 ERA and 2.54 FIP in 144 innings), which is what you’d expect a four-year college guy to do. Keller has four pitches, none of which is great.
  • RHP Nolan Martinez (19): A shoulder issue limited Martinez to 13.2 rookie ball innings in 2017, during which he allowed one run and struck out 14. He’s a prime 2018 breakout candidate thanks to his low-90s heater and high spin curveball.
  • RHP Nick Nelson (22): The numbers aren’t great (4.56 ERA and 3.83 FIP at Low-A), but Nelson misses bats with his fastball and curveball, and his changeup is promising as well. Better prospect than the numbers would lead you to believe.
  • OF Pablo Olivares (19): Olivares is one of those good at everything, great at nothing prospects. He hit .241/.347/.322 (94 wRC+) in 59 games, which included a rough 36-game stint at Charleston (33 wRC+).
  • OF Alex Palma (22): The outfield assist machine (seven in 49 games!) had his best year with the stick, hitting .280/.322/.435 (120 wRC+) with four homers in 54 Single-A games. Palma did not get picked in the Rule 5 Draft, but with another strong year, he may force a 40-man roster decision next offseason.
  • SS Hoy Jun Park (21): The .251/.348/.359 (110 wRC+) batting line with seven homers and 25 steals in 110 games doesn’t stand out, but Park can play the hell out of shortstop and he has more raw power than he’s shown in games.
  • LHP James Reeves (24): The Yankees like Reeves enough that they brought him to Spring Training as a non-roster player this year. An elbow injury sidelined him for much of the season though. He had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts in 46 innings when healthy, and he profiles as a classic left-on-left matchup guy.
  • LHP Josh Rogers (23): Three-pitch lefty had a 3.24 ERA (3.38 FIP) with 21.7% strikeouts and 4.3% walks in 91.2 innings, mostly at High-A, before surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow ended his season. Rogers has gotten lost in the system’s pitching depth, but he’s a good prospect.
  • C Donny Sands (21): The conversion to catching isn’t going well so far, but there’s no reason to pull the plug yet. Sands did hit .276/.328/.374 (105 wRC+) with four homers in 93 Single-A games.
  • LHP Stephen Tarpley (24): The move to the bullpen worked wonders for Tarpley, who threw 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 26.9% strikeouts. He’s a left-on-left reliever candidate thanks to low-to-mid-90s heat and a good slider.
  • C Saul Torres (18): Torres didn’t hit much this year — he put up .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) line in 46 rookie ball games — but he’s the best defensive catcher in the system, and the consensus is there’s more offense coming.

OF Trey Amburgey, RHP Will Carter, OF Rashad Crawford, RHP Austin DeCarr, 1B Mike Ford, RHP Anyelo Gomez, RHP Nick Green, OF Jeff Hendrix, RHP Brady Lail, RHP Jose Mesa Jr., OF Leonardo Molina, RHP Jio Orozco, RHP Erik Swanson, and 1B Brandon Wagner all had varying levels of success in the minors this year and should be recognized as prospects, albeit fringe ones way down the organizational depth chart. Ford (Mariners), Gomez (Braves), and Mesa (Orioles) were all selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

* * *

The Yankees’ farm system inevitably took a hit in 2017. They had arguably the best system in baseball coming into the season and there was nowhere to go but down. The farm system took a hit for good reasons though. The Yankees graduated several players to the big leagues, almost all of whom had an impact right away. They also traded several quality prospects for MLB players, most of whom are under control for another few seasons. Seeing your system ranking drop because of graduations and trades is much more preferable to dropping due to poor performance and attrition.

Chances are the farm system will take another hit next season, when Torres likely reaches the big leagues and others like Andujar and Adams possibly exhaust their rookie eligibility. Overall though, the Yankees have become a player development machine the last few years, and that is the single biggest reason they are back to being a contender with such a bright long-term future.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2017 Season Review, Abi Avelino, Albert Abreu, Alex Palma, Anyelo Gomez, Austin DeCarr, Billy McKinney, Blake Rutherford, Brady Lail, Brandon Wagner, Brian Keller, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, Dietrich Enns, Dillon Tate, Domingo Acevedo, Donny Sands, Drew Finley, Dustin Fowler, Erik Swanson, Estevan Florial, Freicer Perez, Gleyber Torres, Gustavo Campero, Hoy Jun Park, Ian Clarkin, Isiah Gilliam, J.P. Feyereisen, Jake Cave, James Kaprielian, James Reeves, Jeff Hendrix, Jio Orozco, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jorge Guzman, Jorge Mateo, Jose Mesa Jr., Josh Rogers, JP Sears, Juan De Paula, Juan Then, Justus Sheffield, Kyle Holder, Leonardo Molina, Luis Medina, Matt Frawley, Matt Sauer, Mike Ford, Mike King, Nestor Cortes, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Nick Rumbelow, Nick Solak, Nolan Martinez, Oswaldo Cabrera, Pablo Olivares, Rashad Crawford, Roansy Contrera, Rony Garcia, Ryan McBroom, Saul Torres, Stephen Tarpley, Steven Sensley, Taylor Widener, Thairo Estrada, Tito Polo, Trevor Stephan, Trey Amburgey, Wilkerman Garcia, Will Carter, Yoiber Marquina, Zack Littell

Prospect Profile: Matt Sauer

November 29, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

(@MLBPipeline)
(@MLBPipeline)

Matt Sauer | RHP

Background
Sauer, 18, grew up in Southern California and attended Righetti High School in Santa Maria. (It’s named after Ernest, not Dave.) This spring he had a 0.98 ERA with 142 strikeouts in 78.1 innings, plus he hit .427/.504/.555 in 135 plate appearances. Sauer was more of an interesting sleeper than a bonafide prospect on the summer showcase circuit in 2016, then a breakout senior year put him in the conversation as a potential first round pick.

Prior to the 2017 draft both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Sauer as the 28th best prospect in the draft class, while Keith Law (subs. req’d) had him a little lower on his board at 67th. The Yankees selected Sauer with their second round pick, the 54th overall selection, and signed him to an above-slot $2,497,500 bonus. They gave Sauer the savings from first rounder Clarke Schmidt’s below-slot bonus to keep him away from Arizona, where he would have had a chance to be a two-way player.

Pro Debut
The Yankees assigned Sauer to one of their rookie level Gulf Coast League affiliates after signing. He made six starts, allowing nine runs (seven earned) in 11.2 innings with 12 strikeouts and eight walks. That works out to a 5.40 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 21.1% strikeouts and 14.0% walks. The Yankees had Sauer participate in Instructional League after the season, which is standard protocol for new draftees.

Scouting Report
Sauer is very much an arm strength/raw stuff prospect right now, not a polished pitcher. He stands 6-foot-4 and 195 lbs., and his fastball sits mostly 92-95 mph and will touch 97 mph. The pitch has some run back in on right-handed hitters. Last summer Sauer was throwing 88-91 mph in showcase events. His velocity blew up this spring after he bulked up over the winter, with the help of former pro pitcher John Thomas, as Josh Norris explained.

A low-to-mid-80s slider is Sauer’s primary secondary pitch, and he also has a power overhand curveball that shows promise, but lags behind the slider. Sauer doesn’t have much of a changeup, which isn’t uncommon for top high school arms. They never need a changeup to dominate prep competition.

The biggest knock on Sauer is his stiff delivery and long arm action, which hinders his command and has some projecting him as a reliever long-term. He strikes me as a candidate to pitch from the stretch full-time, even as a starter, a la Stephen Strasburg and Yu Darvish. An abbreviated stretch-like windup could work too, similar to Noah Syndergaard and Jon Gray (and Bryan Mitchell).

The Yankees drafted Sauer based on his raw tools, namely his arm strength, his athleticism, and his slider and curveball. Now they have to develop him into a pitcher. Someone who can repeat his delivery, locate consistently, and throw a reliable changeup to keep left-handed hitters off balance.

2018 Outlook
I think it’s pretty obvious Sauer will be held back in Extended Spring Training next year before joining one of the short season leagues when their seasons begin in late-June. Rookie level Pulaski seems like the most likely destination, though Short Season Staten Island is another possibility if the Yankees are willing to let Sauer play against mostly college kids. Either way, I do not expect him to jump right into full season ball next season. There is too much mechanical work to be done right now.

My Take
As risky as he is, I think Sauer is the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year, and one of the five or six best pitching prospects in their pitching rich system. The delivery and command issues are very real, but this is a young pitcher who needs to figure some things out, not an older guy who had it and lost it. He’s a prospect, not a finished product. If the Yankees can iron out his mechanics — a big IF, obviously — Sauer could rocket up prospect rankings in the near future. If it clicks, it’ll click big.

Filed Under: Prospect Profiles Tagged With: Matt Sauer

Thoughts on Baseball Prospectus’ top ten Yankees prospects

November 9, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Adams. (The Citizens' Voice)
Adams. (The Citizens’ Voice)

Now that the 2017season is over, the crew at Baseball Prospectus is storming through their annual look at the top ten prospects (plus more) in each farm system. Yesterday they hit the Yankees. From what I can tell, the entire article is free. You don’t need a subscription to read the commentary.

“A year after being deadline sellers, the Yankees thinned out their farm with graduations and a pair of July 31st buys. The system is down a little, but has an elite 1-2 punch at the top and a bonanza of high-upside teenagers further down the organizational totem pole,” said the write-up. Here’s the top ten:

  1. SS Gleyber Torres
  2. OF Estevan Florial
  3. RHP Chance Adams
  4. LHP Justus Sheffield
  5. RHP Albert Abreu
  6. 3B Miguel Andujar
  7. RHP Domingo Acevedo
  8. RHP Domingo German
  9. RHP Matt Sauer
  10. RHP Luis Medina

Both OF Clint Frazier and UTIL Tyler Wade exhausted their rookie eligibility this season, which is why they’re not in the top ten. Frazier exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit (he finished with 134) while Wade accrued too much service time. The rookie limit is 45 days outside the September roster expansion period. Wade finished with 50 such days, by my unofficial count. Anyway, some thoughts.

1. A year ago at this time the farm system was very position player heavy. The top four and six of the top nine prospects in the system were position players, per Baseball Prospectus. Six of my top eight were position players. Now Baseball Prospectus has seven pitchers among the top ten prospects in the organization. Furthermore, six prospects in the 11-20 range are pitchers as well. That’s a lot of quality arms! And the Yankees are going to need them too. Pitchers break down, they fail to develop a third pitch, etc. There are so many things that can derail development. Plus young pitching is the best currency in baseball. It can get you almost anything you want at the trade deadline. We could start to see the system strength shift from position players to pitchers earlier this year. Now this is damn close to a pitcher first farm system.

2. Speaking of pitchers, where’s RHP Jorge Guzman? He’s not mentioned in the Baseball Prospectus write-up at all. Not in the top ten, not in the next ten, nothing. In the comments it was explained the Yankees have a deep system and Guzman essentially got squeezed out by the numbers crunch, though I’m not sure I agree with him not being a top 20 prospect in the system. Heck, he’s in my top ten right now. When you have Medina in the top ten and RHP Roansy Contreras in the next ten, it’s tough to understand why Guzman isn’t there. He’s a more polished version of those guys, relatively speaking. Perhaps his age is the problem? Guzman will turn 22 in January and he’s yet to pitch in a full season league. That happens when you don’t sign until 18. I dunno. They don’t check IDs on the mound. If you can get outs, it doesn’t matter if you’re 21 or 31 or 41. Guzman’s stuff is as good as anyone’s in the system and he made great strides with his command and secondary pitches in 2017. Seems like a top ten prospect to me.

3. OF Pablo Olivares got some love. He’s been a little sleeper favorite of mine the last two years. The 19-year-old struggled in his quick stint with Low-A Charleston last season, but he .311/.420/.424 (149 wRC+) with 10.7% walks and 13.4% strikeouts in complex ball from 2016-17. Olivares is one of those guys who does a little of everything but nothing exceptionally well. “I project him to at least average across the board, led by a future 55 hit tool … (When) patient, he took walks and drove pitches to center and oppo. He’s bigger than his listed 6-foot, 160 pounds (likely closer to 170), and while just an average runner, his reads and instincts in center are good enough to stick with an average arm. With maturity and some added strength, he at least has a chance to see 50 power,” said the write-up, which included Olivares as a prospect in the 11-20 range of the farm system. I like him. I think he’ll establish himself as a no-doubt top 15 prospect in the system in 2018. There’s a “Thairo Estrada but an outfielder” quality to Olivares.

4. My favorite feature of Baseball Prospectus’ annual prospect write-ups are the “top talents 25 and under” lists. The ten best players in the organization no older than 25, basically. Straightforward, right? New York’s list has Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino in the 1-2-3 spots in that order, then slide the top ten prospects behind them. Noticeably absent: Greg Bird. Hmmm. I assume the injuries are the reason Bird was omitted from the top 25 and under talents — “As per usual, his future outlook depends almost entirely on his health,” said the write-up — but even considering that, I still feel like he belongs in the top ten somewhere. Why would injuries knock Bird out of the top ten but not, say, Abreu? He had injury problems of his own this year and he’s never pitched above High-A. Bird is quite risky given his injury history. He’s also shown he can be a productive big leaguer when healthy. Not sure I agree with knocking him down the list below prospects, who themselves are inherently risky.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Albert Abreu, Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, Estevan Florial, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Jorge Guzman, Justus Sheffield, Luis Medina, Matt Sauer, Miguel Andujar, Pablo Olivares, Prospect Lists

2017 Draft: Yankees sign first rounder Clarke Schmidt and second rounder Matt Sauer

June 24, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Schmidt. (The Post ad Courier)
Schmidt. (The Post and Courier)

The Yankees have signed their top two selections in the 2017 amateur draft. The team announced deals with South Carolina right-hander Clarke Schmidt (first round, 16th overall) and California high school right-hander Matt Sauer (second round, 54th overall) earlier this afternoon. Sauer posted photos of his contract signing on Twitter.

Here is the bonus information:

  • Schmidt: $2,184,300 per Jack Curry ($3,458,600 slot)
  • Sauer: $2,500,000 per Jim Callis ($1,236,000 slot)

Schmidt, 21, received a below-slot bonus because he is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He had the procedure in May, so he’s going to be out until midseason 2018. As our Draft Pool tracker shows, the Yankees now have a little less than $460,000 in bonus pool space remaining before hitting the penalties. They’ve maxed out their spending pool the last few years. I imagine that $460,000 is going to a late round pick.

Based on the way things played out, the Yankees planned all along to sign Schmidt below-slot — I’m guessing they had a pre-draft agreement in place — and spend the savings on a highly touted player who slipped into the second round. That happened to be Sauer. I think this was Plan B. Plan A was using the first round selection on a player who was no longer on the board when that pick rolled around, so they called an audible.

Anyway, Baseball America ranked Schmidt as the 32nd best prospect in the draft class. MLB.com ranked him 49th and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked him 74th. He was considered a mid-first round talent before blowing out his elbow last month. Here is a piece of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Schmidt relies heavily on a 92-94 mph fastball that can reach 96 and features power sink. Both his slider and curveball can be plus pitches at times but also lack consistency, and he also mixes in a decent changeup. He generally throws strikes but can be vulnerable if his pitches wander up in the strike zone … He maintained his improved velocity until he got hurt this spring, but scouts don’t love his delivery and now have even more questions about his durability.

Sauer was ranked as the 28th best prospect in the draft class by both MLB.com and Baseball America. Keith Law ranked 67th. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

He’s reached 97 mph at times this spring and has sat comfortably in the 91-95 mph range in most starts. He combines that with a nasty slider, up to 87 mph, thrown from a three-quarter slot with good power, bite and deception. The changeup is a distant third pitch … Some scouts are not in love with Sauer’s arm action and see him more as a potential power bullpen type of pitcher. Others see a potential three-pitch mix, two above-average to plus offerings, with the build to be a rotation workhorse.

The draft signing deadline is Friday, July 7th, so two weeks from yesterday. The Yankees have already handled all their major business, however. They’ve signed each of their picks in the top 17 rounds plus several late rounders. I expect them to spend that remaining $460,000 ($457,949 to be exact) on someone. That has been their M.O. in the draft pool era. To spend as much as possible without incurring penalties forcing them to surrender next year’s first round pick.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: 2017 Draft, Clarke Schmidt, Matt Sauer

2017 Draft Signings: Sauer, Smith, Lehnen, Higgins, Zurak

June 20, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Higgins. (Getty)
Higgins. (Getty)

We are still two and a half weeks away from the Friday, July 7th signing deadline, though the Yankees have already taken care of business with most of their 2017 draft picks. Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three recaps, and here are all of the Yankees’ picks. Now here are the latest signings:

  • Both Arkansas RHP Trevor Stephan (3rd) and Rice RHP Glenn Otto (5th) signed for less than originally reported. MLB.com says Stephan received $797,500, not $800,000. Jim Callis says Otto received $320,900, not $323,400. Turns out there’s an accounting trick that saves teams $2,500 against the bonus pool. Callis says the standard draftee contract includes $2,500 in bonuses so easily reachable that teams were counting it as part of the signing bonus. Now they’ve stopped. The player still gets the money, but it doesn’t count against the bonus pool. Huh.
  • The Yankees and California HS RHP Matt Sauer (2nd) have a deal in place, reports Steve Adams. Joe Bailey says Sauer was offered $2.5M, which is roughly double his slot value. I don’t doubt Adams and Bailey, though I’d like to see one of the regular draft gurus says the deal is done before considering it done, you know?
  • Texas HS OF Canaan Smith (4th) has signed, the Yankees announced. Jim Callis says he received a $497,500 bonus, a little above the $433,100 slot value. Smith has big left-handed raw power and he walked 60+ times in 40 games this spring. It’s a top ten walks total for a prep player all-time.
  • Augustana LHP Dalton Lehnen (6th) and Dallas Baptist RHP Dalton Higgins (7th) have signed, the Yankees announced. Callis says Lehnen received a $245,100 bonus, which is his slot value minus the $2,500 trick. No word on Higgins’ bonus yet. My guess is he received slot as well. (Update: Callis says Higgins signed for $227,500, which is slightly above slot.)
  • Radford RHP Kyle Zurak (8th), Texas-Arlington RHP Austin Gardner (9th), and Southern Illinois RHP Chad Whitmer (10th) have all signed as well, the Yankees announced. MLB.com says all three signed for a well-below slot $7,500. They’re draft pool saving college senior picks.
  • New Orleans RHP Shawn Semple (11th), Orange Coast 1B Eric Wagaman (12th), Virginia Tech RHP Aaron McGarity (15th), Mount Olive SS Ricky Surum (16th), Delaware RHP Ron Marinaccio (19th), and Notre Dame C Ryan Lidge (20th) have all signed, the Yankees announced. Slot money for every pick after the tenth round is $125,000 and I doubt these guys signed for more than that. (Update: Callis says Semple signed for $147,500. No word on the other guys.)
  • Seattle RHP Janson Junk (22nd) has signed, according to his Instagram feed. There’s no reason to think he received more than the $125,000 slot.

Assuming the Sauer deal is done, the Yankees have now signed every pick in the top 22 rounds except South Carolina RHP Clarke Schmidt (1st) and Alabama-Birmingham RHP Garrett Whitlock (18th). That Sauer is getting a big over-slot bonus indicates the Yanks have a below-slot deal in place with Schmidt.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: Aaron McGarity, Austin Gardner, Canaan Smith, Chad Whitmer, Dalton Higgins, Dalton Lehnen, Eric Wagaman, Glenn Otto, Janson Junk, Kyle Zurak, Matt Sauer, Ricku Surum, Ron Marinaccio, Ryan Lidge, Shawn Semple, Trevor Stephan

2017 Draft: Yankees play the bonus pool game on Day One

June 13, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Schmidt. (AP)
Schmidt. (AP)

The 2017 amateur draft is now underway. A total of 75 picks were made Monday night, during Day One of the draft, including the Yankees’ first (16th overall) and second (54th overall) selections. With those picks, the Yankees did something they had never done before in the draft pool era. They (presumably) cut a deal with their first round pick so they could spend big on their second rounder. Let’s review New York’s two picks from Day One.

Yankees gamble on Schmidt

At first blush, I wasn’t thrilled with the Yankees first round pick, South Carolina RHP Clarke Schmidt. I imagine I wasn’t alone. Schmidt’s a good prospect, don’t get me wrong, but he also had Tommy John surgery in April. Why take an injured college pitcher when healthy comparable college pitchers were still on the board? The Yankees had been connected to Oregon LHP David Peterson for weeks and he was still available, for example.

“Schmidt’s got four pitches that at times are all plus. He has command, he has makeup,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer in a statement. “We really like his delivery. He’s got a chance to be a top end of the rotation type of guy who combines pitchability with power stuff. And you always like it when they’re the Friday night guy, pitching and having success in that conference … The (surgery) results were positive and we feel really good about the rehab. He should be back pitching at full strength in approximately 12 months.”

Schmidt was a potential top 10-15 pick before blowing out his elbow thanks to a power arsenal with strikeout stuff. He struck out 70 in 60.1 innings for the Gamecocks this spring before needing elbow surgery, and Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) makes you can’t wait to see Schmidt healthy and back on a mound:

(This) spring he was routinely touching 95-96 mph with his four-seamer and sitting comfortably in the low 90s. He also throws a heavy two-seamer, although his four-seamer shows good movement as well. Schmidt’s slider has developed into one of the better breaking balls in the college class, a strikeout pitch in the mid-80s with tilt. He also flashed an above-average changeup at times, with sinking movement to his arm side … Before the surgery, Schmidt’s stock was steadily rising, and to some evaluators, he had inserted himself into the uppermost tier of college pitching.

Sounds good! But, you know, the elbow. Sure, Tommy John surgery has a very high success rate, but it’s not perfect. The Yankees have steered clear of injured pitchers in recent drafts, most notably Brady Aiken two years ago, and I’m sure the Andrew Brackman flame out was one of the reasons. The Yankees drafted Brackman knowing he needed Tommy John surgery, and all the missed development time was too much to overcome.

So again, why draft an injured college pitcher when comparable healthy college pitchers were still on the board? There are two possible answers. One, the Yankees really like Schmidt. I mean really like him. They must think he’s a no-doubt top ten guy to take him that high despite recent elbow construction, and they must also think he is very likely to make a full recovery. Or two, they know they can sign Schmidt to a below-slot bonus to manipulate their bonus pool.

Given their second round pick, the latter seems much more likely. They’re going to sign him cheap. The Yankees either got Schmidt to agree to a below-slot number before the draft or feel comfortable enough with his willingness to take a below-slot bonus to draft him in the first round. That 16th overall pick comes with a $3,458,600 slot bonus. Cutting a deal with Schmidt would free up a lot of bonus pool space to spend on other players, such as …

Planning to spend big on Sauer

With their second round pick, the 54th overall selection, the Yankees selected California HS RHP Matt Sauer — a Southern California kid, of course — and suddenly it all started to make sense. Sauer was a consensus late first round who really shot up draft boards this spring and was considered by some to be a potential tough sign given his commitment to Arizona. Now we know where any bonus pool money saved with Schmidt is going.

Prior to the draft, both MLB.com and Baseball America ranked Sauer as the 28th best prospect in the draft class — Keith Law (subs. req’d) isn’t as much of a fan and ranked him 67th — because he possesses a live arm with two knockout pitches. From MLB.com’s scouting report:

Sauer brings the potential to have premium velocity from his 6-foot-4 frame. He’s reached 97 mph at times this spring and has sat comfortably in the 91-95 mph range in most starts. He combines that with a nasty slider, up to 87 mph, thrown from a three-quarter slot with good power, bite and deception. The changeup is a distant third pitch, but he hasn’t needed it much against high school competition.

The lack of a reliable changeup is one of the biggest knocks against Sauer, though it’s not terribly unusual for a top high school pitcher to lack a changeup. They rarely need it to get outs. Another popular knock against Sauer is his delivery, specifically his arm action, which some believe is too long in the back and robs him of command. Here’s some video. The quality of his stuff is obvious, as is the lengthy arm action and command issues:

It’s easy to understand why Sauer was drafted so high. (Going 54th overall is pretty cool!) The kid throws fire. It’s also easy to see he’s a work in progress. The Yankees will have to work with Sauer to iron out his mechanics and develop a changeup. Won’t be easy! But the Yankees are banking on Sauer’s upside and their improving track record of developing arms.

“Sauer is a projectable high school right-hander who is athletic, with a ‘now’ fastball and a plus slider,” said Oppenheimer in a statement. “He really has a good way about his aggressiveness and makeup on the mound. We see a chance there for a starter with power stuff.”

We should look at the Schmidt and Sauer picks together because they are connected through the bonus pool. Like I said, Schmidt is slotted for $3,458,600. Sauer, on the other hand, is slotted for $1,236,000. That’s $4,694,600 between the two of them. Maybe they’ll wind up with even split? Roughly $2.35M each? Schmidt gets below-slot because he recently had his elbow cut open and Sauer gets over-slot because, well, that’s what it’ll take to get him to turn pro.

Why didn’t the Yankees take Sauer in the first round and Schmidt in the second round? Wouldn’t you rather take the high upside kid first to make sure you actually get him before cutting deals? Yes, in theory, but keep in mind that if a player doesn’t sign, the team loses all the pool money associated with that pick. Taking Sauer in the first round and having him walk away means losing $3,458,600 in bonus money. Yikes. The Yankees would rather roll the dice with the $1,236,000 in second round bonus pool money.

Chances are the Yankees did not specifically target Sauer for an over-slot bonus in the second round. He was probably one of several players they were looking at for that 54th overall pick. Among the other notable prospects to come off the board shortly after Sauer were Minnesota HS RHP Sam Carlson and Florida HS SS Mark Vientos, for example. California HS SS Nick Allen and Louisiana HS RHP Blayne Enlow are still on the board now and could have also been in the mix for that second round pick.

Ultimately, it boils down to this: the Yankees like Schmidt and think he can be a really good pitcher when healthy, but they also recognized his leverage is shot following Tommy John surgery. By taking him in the first round and (again, presumably) getting him to agree to a below-slot bonus, it would leave them bonus pool money to spend on another player(s) later. In this case that player is Sauer. If Sauer had come off the board before that 54th pick rolled around, maybe it would have been Carlson. Or Allen. Or whoever.

Last year the Yankees did the exact opposite of this strategy. They took the top available talent, Blake Rutherford, with their first round pick, then figured out how to save enough bonus money to pay him later. This year they saved the bonus pool money first, then waited to see who would be available later. And who knows? Maybe they’ll save enough with the Schmidt pick to go over-slot with their third round pick as well. That would be cool.

I should note this strategy is not particularly new or unique to the Yankees. Teams have been doing it since the draft pools were put in place. Most of the time it happens with teams at the very top of the draft, with the picks tied to huge slot values. They turn that one big bonus slot into multiple high-end prospects. Not many teams have done it in the middle of the first round, so in that sense the Yankees are unique. Overall though, this has been done before. It’s not new.

For now, the Yankees landed two nice power arms with upside on Day One. One of them happens to be broken at the moment. I didn’t like the Schmidt pick when it happened because Tommy John surgery is a big risk and I still don’t love it overall. Healthy players are cool. It’s not like Schmidt is getting a tooth pulled or something like that. Once the Yankees went for Sauer, arguably the best player still on the board, with their second pick, their strategy became clear. They were planning to pounce on whichever highly ranked prospect slipped into the second round.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: 2017 Draft, Clarke Schmidt, Matt Sauer

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