Trade Deadline Notes: Nats, Sabathia, Blue Jays, Pineda

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The trade deadline is now only nine days away, and according to FanGraphs, the Yankees have a 9.6% chance to make the postseason. That’s not very good. Buster Olney (video link) said yesterday Aroldis Chapman could be dealt as soon as this weekend, though I’m not sure I buy that. “The Yankees are playing it smart and will likely take it to the end to get the most,” said an official with another team to George King. Here are the latest trade rumblings.

Nats make top prospects off-limits

Despite their interest in Chapman, Barry Svrluga reports the Nationals will not trade top prospects Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, or Reynaldo Lopez for the hard-throwing lefty. Every team says they’re unwilling to trade their top prospects this time of year, so I wouldn’t make too much of this. It’s just posturing.

If the Nationals are serious about getting Chapman (or Andrew Miller), they’ll have to put one of those guys on the table. Lopez seems most likely, mostly because he’s the lowest rated prospect of the bunch. He’s not bad — Baseball America had him 48th in their midseason top 100 — the other guys are just really, really good. Based on what Miller fetched two years ago, I think Lopez would be a fair return for Chapman.

Blue Jays scouted Sabathia

The Blue Jays had a scout watching CC Sabathia‘s most recent start, reports Jon Heyman. George King says the Astros, Mets, Marlins, and Cubs also had scouts on hand Thursday. It’s worth noting Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was in the Indians’ front office all those years Sabathia was in Cleveland, including most as GM. There’s a bit of a connection there.

We heard Sabathia has been drawing some interest the other day, though I have a hard time believing it’s serious interest. I’m guessing it’s more “if you eat a ton of money we’ll take him off your hands” interest. Also, an intradivision trade with the Blue Jays probably isn’t happening, even though you could argue trading Sabathia to an AL East rival would be good for the Yankees.

Giants, Astros, Cubs among teams to scout Pineda

The Giants, Astros, Cubs, and “a ton” of others were on hand to see Michael Pineda‘s most recent start, report Jon Morosi and Chris Cotillo. Pineda had his first scoreless start of the season Wednesday, and he had maybe his nastiest slider of the season too. As Katie pointed out in Yankeemetrics, Pineda generated 18 swings and misses with his slider that game, the most by any pitcher in baseball in 2016.

The Yankees are at the point where they have to figure out what they want to do with Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi. Do they want to keep them long-term? If so, they should start thinking about extensions. If they don’t want them long-term, then they should trade them soon to get as much back as possible. I understand waiting and hoping they rebuild value in the second half, but I think it’s more likely they’ll lose value going forward between the injury risk and being closer to free agency.

Trade Deadline Notes: Marlins, Indians, Nationals, Cubs

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

We are now 13 days away from the trade deadline, and while the Yankees have won two straight, their odds of playing in October are long. Buster Olney says they are going “full bore” in shaping possible trades, though ownership still needs to give the thumbs up. I wish they’d go ahead and sell now before someone gets hurt or other teams decide to drop out of the race and sell. There’s a lot of demand and not much supply right now. That works in New York’s favor. Alas. They’re still not ready to move players. Anyway, here’s the latest from the rumor mill.

Pineda among Marlins’ targets

The Marlins are working to add a starter before the trade deadline and Michael Pineda is on their list of targets, reports Jon Morosi. Miami and the Yankees discussed Aroldis Chapman a few weeks back, so the two teams have been in contact. It’s unclear if the Yankees and Marlins have actually talked about a Pineda deal, or if the Marlins simply admire him from afar.

Morosi says the Marlins are interested in Jeremy Hellickson and Andrew Cashner in addition to Pineda. All three of those guys kinda suck, but Hellickson and Cashner are rentals while Pineda has an extra year of control. That figures to play a role in Miami’s decision making. As I’ve said though, the Marlins don’t have many prospects to offer. Their system isn’t very good. That’s why the Yankees wanted big league players for Chapman.

Indians prefer Miller to Chapman

The Indians are in the hunt for a shutdown left-handed reliever, and Ken Rosenthal says Andrew Miller is “probably” their top target. Rosenthal says they prefer Miller to Chapman, presumably because he’s willing to be a setup man and has two extra years of team control. Jerry Crasnick says the feeling within the game is the Indians are more inclined to make a blockbuster trade than they normally would because they’re in first place and the club is already so well-rounded.

Not coincidentally, Keith Law says the Yankees had two scouts on hand to see left-hander and top Indians pitching prospect Justus Sheffield this afternoon. Other top prospects on the loaded High-A Lynchburg roster include first baseman Bobby Bradley, catcher Francisco Mejia, and shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang. Those guys are all far away from MLB and I imagine the Yankees want talent closer to the show for Miller, so perhaps these guys are being looked at as second and third pieces in a deal. Cleveland had seven (!) players on Baseball America’s midseason top 100 prospects list. Here is MLB.com’s top 30 Indians prospects list with free scouting reports and all that.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)
(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Chapman is Nats’ most likely target

According to Rosenthal, Chapman is the Nationals’ most likely target at the deadline. That makes sense. Dusty Baker had Chapman in Cincinnati and the Nats tried to get him from the Reds over the winter — even after the domestic violence incident — but the Yankees beat them to it. How would Chapman and Jonathan Papelbon co-exist? That ain’t my problem. That’s up to Washington to figure out.

Interestingly, Rosenthal says top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito is not as untouchable as he once was. I still highly doubt the Nationals would give him up for a reliever, even one as good as Chapman or Miller. Any trade sending Giolito to the Yankees — and let’s be clear, that is an extreme long shot — would have to be a blockbuster with high-end talent going to Washington. Maybe something like Chapman, Masahiro Tanaka, and Brett Gardner for Giolito and stuff. I dunno, I’m just spitballing here. My trade proposal sucks.

Cubs haven’t made best offer for Miller or Chapman

To date, the Cubs have not made the best trade offer for Miller or Chapman, reports Jon Heyman. To be perfectly honest, I read this report and assumed it was a leak from the Yankees intended to get Chicago to up their offer. The Cubbies have been scouting Miller and Chapman for weeks — they’re said to prefer Miller to Chapman like pretty much everyone else (except the Nats, I guess) — and there’s a definite need for a shutout lefty reliever in their bullpen.

Jeff Passan says the Yankees covet the injured Kyle Schwarber — “Cash thinks he can hit 50 home runs there,” said one of Passan’s sources — but the Cubs are not budging. They won’t deal him for a reliever, not even Miller. The Cubs have lots of prospects to offer though, so being unable to get Schwarber shouldn’t end trade talks. Assuming Heyman’s report is a leak from the Yankees, I see nothing wrong with trying to squeeze a little more out of Chicago. The Yankees control the bullpen market right now.

Trade Deadline Notes: Beltran, Royals, Nationals, Rangers

(Harry How/Getty)
(Harry How/Getty)

Thanks to last night’s win over the BoSox, the Yankees improved their postseason odds to … 5.2%. That’s not so good. Ownership still has not whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline according to Buster Olney, which is no surprise. I’m guessing they won’t make that decision until the very last moment. I just hope none of their top trade chips get hurt between now and then. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous trade notes.

Yankees, Royals talked Beltran

According to George King, the Yankees and Royals discussed a trade involving Carlos Beltran earlier this season. Apparently reliever Luke Hochevar’s name came up. The Royals are short on offense at the moment and they have a huge hole in right field, so while Beltran doesn’t fit their mold as a premium defender, he’d sure as heck improve their lineup. Remember, Kansas City tried to sign Beltran as a free agent two offseason ago.

Hochevar being part of trade talks is interesting if not a little weird. He’s a solid middle reliever (3.86 ERA and 3.83 FIP) and an impending free agent, but trading rental Beltran for a rental reliever makes no sense for the Yankees. I think Hochevar would have been part of the deal as a way to offset money on Kansas City’s end. (He’s making $6M total this year.) Beltran for Hochevar and a prospect or two seems like the final outcome there. There’s no word on whether talks were serious or are ongoing.

Yankees scouting Nationals, Triple-A affiliate

The Yankees spent the weekend scouting the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate and will cover the big league team this week, reports Barry Svrluga. It’s hard not notice Washington will be calling up pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez from Triple-A to make his MLB debut tomorrow night. Pitching prospects Austin Voth and A.J. Cole are currently with Triple-A Syracuse as well.

Lopez, who Baseball America ranked as the 48th best prospect in baseball in their midseason top 100, has long been speculated as a possible trade target for New York. That said, he didn’t pitch in Triple-A this weekend, so Yankees’ scouts in Syracuse didn’t see him. He threw an inning in the Futures Game in San Diego on Sunday. Voth and Cole pitched Friday and Saturday in Triple-A, respectively, for what’s it worth. The Nationals have interest in Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, so it’s no surprise the Yankees are scouting their system. They’re scouting everyone’s system.

(Denis Poroy/Getty)
(Denis Poroy/Getty)

Rangers want Yankees to take on money in potential Miller trade

According to Jeff Wilson, the Rangers would like the Yankees to eat some money in a potential Miller trade. Miller is owed whatever is left of his $9M salary this season plus another $9M in both 2017 and 2018. That’s certainly very reasonable given his on-field production, but who knows what Texas’ financials look like. A $9M a year reliever may not be feasible to them.

Of course, given their financial might, the Yankees should be willing to eat money to facilitate any trade as long as it means a greater package of players coming back. It seems silly to pay someone as good as Miller to play elsewhere, but you know what? If it’s the difference between getting a very good prospect and an elite prospect, why not? The Yankees have the money. That’s a good way to leverage their financial firepower.

Cubs, others continue to scout Yankees

Yet another high-ranking Cubs official was at Yankee Stadium this weekend, presumably to scout their bullpen pieces, reports George King. They’ve now had three different scouts and pro scouting director Jared Porter watch New York’s end-game relievers in recent weeks. That ain’t routine coverage. The Cubs are getting multiple eyes on these guys because they want as much information as possible before getting serious about a trade.

King says the Braves, Rangers, Marlins, Cardinals, Nationals, Royals, and Giants have also been scouting the Yankees recently. I’m not quite sure what the Braves were doing there. Maybe they were checking guys out in the case the Yankees decide to buy or something? The other five clubs all make sense though. They’re all contending and they all have some kind of clear need New York may be able to address via trade. The deadline is exactly two weeks away.

Frisaro: Yankees wanted big league players from Marlins for Aroldis Chapman

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

According to Joe Frisaro, the Marlins reached out to the Yankees and “kicked the tires” on lefty relief ace Aroldis Chapman in recent weeks. The Yankees sought big league players in return, not prospects, which pretty much ended things. Miami instead traded for Fernando Rodney a few days ago.

The Marlins are right in the thick of the wildcard race, but they probably need to add some pitching to stay in it all season. We first heard about their interest in Chapman a few days ago, and I wondered whether the Yankees would ask for big league players in return given Miami’s shallow farm system. They wound up surrendering one of their better prospects for Rodney.

I mentioned outfielder Marcell Ozuna, lefty Adam Conley, and utility man Derek Dietrich as possible targets for the Yankees in trade talks with the Marlins. It’s hard to think they’d get Ozuna or Conley for a rental reliever, even one as good as Chapman, but maybe Dietrich could be had. I’m not sure what other big league Marlins the Yankees could have targeted. Lefty Justin Nicolino? They know Christian Yelich wasn’t happening.

For what it’s worth, Jon Heyman says the general feeling within the game is that Brian Cashman is “more receptive” to selling at the trade deadline than ownership despite his public comments to the contrary. Hal Steinbrenner, Randy Levine, and all of the other head honchos are not yet to ready to throw in the towel and trade away veteran players at the deadline. That’s not a surprise.

The trade deadline is four weeks and two days away, and the Yankees will play an absolutely brutal schedule immediately after the All-Star break (Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, Astros). If nothing else, that should help clarify the team’s position in the postseason race by the end of the month. My biggest concern is the Yankees will be just close enough to the race that they do nothing, neither buy nor sell. That would be bad.

Olney: Marlins considering a pursuit of Aroldis Chapman

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), Aroldis Chapman is one of several pitchers the Marlins have “talked about internally” leading up to the trade deadline. Miami is very much in the postseason race — the Marlins and Dodgers are essentially tied for the second wildcard spot — but the Marlins definitely need some pitching help to stay in the hunt the rest of the way.

I don’t know why, but Chapman has always struck me as someone destined to play for the Marlins at some point. You know how some guys just seem to fit certain teams? No? Maybe I’m crazy. Anyway, Chapman to the Marlins is definitely something that passes the sniff test, especially since Miami is known to swing a blockbuster trade from time to time. I have some thoughts on this.

1. So what do the Marlins have to offer? The Marlins are one of the best player development organizations in the game, but their farm system is rather thin at the moment. Their No. 1 prospect is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, their No. 2 prospect stabbed a teammate, their No. 3 prospect is on the DL, and their No. 4 prospect is the guy who got stabbed. Yeah. Here is MLB.com’s top 30 Marlins prospects for your perusal.

Given the state of Miami’s system, I wonder if the Yankees would instead target players on their big league roster. The Marlins were very open to trading Marcell Ozuna over the winter, but he’s broken out in a big way this season (152 wRC+), so I doubt he’d be on the table for Chapman. Derek Dietrich maybe? He can hit (123 wRC+ since the start of 2015) and play multiple positions (first, second, third, left). The Marlins are short on pitching, so they’re probably not willing to move a young arm like Adam Conley. It could be tough to match up for a Chapman trade.

2. What about expanding a Chapman deal into something bigger? Now we’re talking. Chapman for Ozuna might not work, but what about Chapman and, say, Michael Pineda and Jorge Mateo and Aaron Hicks for Ozuna and Conley? Yes, my trade proposal totally sucks. You catch my drift though. There is definitely the potential for a Yankees-Marlins swap to grow into something bigger with multiple players going each way. That sure would be fun. It’s been a while since the Yankees made a good ol’ fashioned blockbuster with multiple big names going each way.

3. The Yankees need the Nationals and Mets to continue to sputter. The Nationals crushed the Mets last night and now have a 3.5-game lead over the Marlins and 4.0-game lead over the Mets in the NL East. Washington has won only three of their last ten games though, and the Mets have dropped six of ten as well. Neither club is playing all that well while the Marlins have won seven of their last ten games.

The Nats and Mets will play six more times between now and the All-Star break, and the best thing for the Yankees would be those clubs beating up on each other and keeping the NL East race nice and tight. The Marlins need to stay in the race too, otherwise paying big for a rental like Chapman won’t make much sense. Added bonus: the Nationals struggling could increase their urgency to pick up another reliever. Point is, the tighter the NL East race, the more likely it is these clubs will have to make a move, and that’s good for the Yankees.

* * *

The Yankees aren’t in sell mode right now and I get it even though I don’t necessarily agree with it. They are only three games back of a wildcard spot, after all. (Three games back with six teams ahead of them, but I digress.) If they do decide to sell, Chapman figures to be first to go, and the Marlins are a logical destination. Could the Yankees and Marlins find common ground? It might be tough because Miami’s farm system is thin. They might not be willing to trade away players from their MLB roster while still in the race.

The Rest of MLB [2016 Season Preview]

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The new season is upon us. Opening Day is Monday, which means it’s time to wrap up our annual Season Preview series. As always, we’ll end the series with a quick look around the league. Some of this is serious, most of it isn’t. Enjoy.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Why They’ll Suck: The middle infield is a mess and their corner outfield defense is going to be pretty bad if Yasmany Tomas plays left everyday. Also, they’ll probably trade some good players to unload a bad contract again.
Bold Prediction: Shelby Miller actually pitches well. I have no idea why so many analysts think he’s bad.

Atlanta Braves
Why They’ll Suck: Because they are trying to suck. Rebuilding is just a nice way of saying tanking.
Bold Prediction: Nick Markakis beats his ZiPS projection and slugs .370.

Chicago Cubs
Why They’ll Suck: They’re going to strike out way too much. It’s also only a matter of time until someone gets bit by some wild animal Joe Maddon brings into the clubhouse.
Bold Prediction: Adam Warren is their best starter. Boom!

Chicago White Sox
Why They’ll Suck: They lost their leader, Drake LaRoche.
Bold Prediction: We find out Adam LaRoche was the one who complained about Drake LaRoche being in the clubhouse all the time.

Cincinnati Reds
Why They’ll Suck: Their rotation is Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot, and John Lamb. No, wait, that’s the list of their injured starters. Now they have to turn to the B-team.
Bold Prediction: Joey Votto finally loses his mind, but in a polite, Canadian way. He’s already doing this between pitches:

Joey Votto

Cleveland Indians
Why They’ll Suck: In all seriousness, their entire starting outfield is either hurt (Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall) or suspended (Abe Almonte). They’re a Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco injury away from 85 losses. Beware.
Bold Prediction: Francisco Lindor leads all shortstops in WAR.

Colorado Rockies
Why They’ll Suck: The Rockies exist in a perpetual state of suck. Fun Fact: They have never once won a division title. They’ve finished as high as second place only three times in their 23 years of existence.
Bold Prediction: They finally trade Carlos Gonzalez. I’m thinking … Orioles.

Detroit Tigers
Why They’ll Suck: They’ve punted defense at the four corner positions and, inevitably, the relievers they acquired this winter will stink.
Bold Prediction: Justin Verlander bounces back and finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting.

Houston Astros
Why They’ll Suck: Karma for doing very little in the offseason outside of adding a new closer and fifth starter. The rebuild is supposed to be over.
Bold Prediction: Carlos Correa is more Alex Gonzalez than Alex Rodriguez.

Kansas City Royals
Why They’ll Suck: They replaced Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist with Ian Kennedy and Christian Colon. Like, on purpose.
Bold Prediction: Kennedy wins 18 games and Colon hits .310. Eff the Royals, man.

Los Angeles Angels
Why They’ll Suck: The Angels have surrounded Mike Trout with as little position player talent as possible in an effort to make him look even greater by comparison.
Bold Prediction: Jered Weaver’s fastball hits 84 mph once or twice.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They’ll Suck: The Dodgers have surrounded Clayton Kershaw with as little pitching talent as possible in an effort to make him look even greater by comparison.
Bold Prediction: It becomes clear Yasiel Puig peaked early.

Miami Marlins
Why They’ll Suck: The fans and players are doomed to pay for Jeffrey Loria’s evil villian-ness. Fun Fact: They’ve never won a division title either. They’ve also never lost a postseason series.
Bold Prediction: Christian Yelich breaks out and puts up Andrew McCutchen numbers. I’m serious about that one.

Milwaukee Brewers
Why They’ll Suck: They’re another team that is going to suck on purpose. Before long they’re going to trade Jonathan Lucroy too.
Bold Prediction: Ramon Flores hits 15 dingers with a .350 OBP.

Minnesota Twins
Why They’ll Suck: I don’t know, but I’m sure Twins fans will blame it on Joe Mauer.
Bold Prediction: Miguel Sano plays right field better than Torii Hunter did last year.

New York Mets
Why They’ll Suck: They’re still the Mets. Case in point: the recent Matt Harvey bladder story. Last year’s pennant didn’t change anything in that regard.
Bold Prediction: They have to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline.

Oakland Athletics
Why They’ll Suck: No joke, I can name only one A’s starter (Sonny Gray) and one A’s infielder (Marcus Semien). Is Bobby Crosby still playing?
Bold Prediction: Josh Reddick gets traded for a holy crap package at the trade deadline. I’m thinking … Royals.

Philadelphia Phillies
Why They’ll Suck: Still reeling from the 2009 World Series, obviously.
Bold Prediction: Someone not named Maikel Franco or Ryan Howard hits a home run.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Why They’ll Suck: The baseball gods will not let John Jaso’s hair go unpunished.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Bold Prediction: Mark Melancon is traded at the deadline. I’m thinking … Dodgers.

St. Louis Cardinals
Why They’ll Suck: The Cardinals will never suck. The only thing they suck at is sucking. Their ace made four starts and their highest paid position player hit four home runs last season, and they still won 100 games. The Cardinals, man.
Bold Prediction: Three years after learning to play second base and one year after learning to hit for power, Matt Carpenter picks up pitching and saves 46 games.

San Diego Padres
Why They’ll Suck: I’m not entirely convinced the Padres exist at this point. Are we sure MLB still lets them into the league? What an amazingly nondescript franchise.
Bold Prediction: Someone throws the first no-hitter in franchise history. I’ll go with Colin Rea, who is a real player and definitely not someone I just made up.

San Francisco Giants
Why They’ll Suck: They buy into the “even year trend” a little too much and give Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner weeks off at a time this summer.
Bold Prediction: Bumgarner out-slugs the starting outfield.

Seattle Mariners
Why They’ll Suck: I don’t know how it will happen exactly, but they’ll suck. The Mariners are the Wile E. Coyote of MLB. Every time they looked poised for success, they crash into the mountain with a tunnel painted on the side of it.
Bold Prediction: Bob Cano mashes 30 taters and finishes in the top three of the MVP voting. I’m expecting a big year from Robbie.

Texas Rangers
Why They’ll Suck: They won’t suck. They’ll be just good enough to get thisclose to winning something meaningful before having it ripped away again. Think Game Six of the 2011 World Series, or the seventh inning of Game Five of last year’s ALDS. That’s how the Rangers roll.
Bold Prediction: Josh Hamilton leads the team in home runs.

Washington Nationals
Why They’ll Suck: They’re the NL version of the Red Sox. They have talent and everyone buys the hype. It should work! But it doesn’t.

Homer Simpson

Bold Prediction: Bryce Harper is even better this year.

Reports: Marlins agree to five-year deal with Wei-Yin Chen

(Leon Halip/Getty)
(Leon Halip/Getty)

One of the few remaining quality free agent starters is off the board. The Marlins have agreed to a five-year contract with former Orioles southpaw Wei-Yin Chen, according to multiple reports. The contract includes a vesting option for a sixth year and an opt-out after year two.

The deal is worth $80M and it’ll be interesting to see the breakdown. The Marlins have a history of backloading their big free agent contracts then trading the player one year later. Carlos Delgado ($4M of $52M in year one before being traded), Jose Reyes ($10M of $106M), and Mark Buehrle ($6M of $55M) all got caught up in that scheme.

The Yankees were said to be monitoring the market for Chen earlier this offseason — here’s our Scouting The Market post — though they were never seriously connected to him at any point. Story of the offseason, basically. The Yankees haven’t been seriously connected to any significant free agents this winter.

With Chen off the board, the top unsigned free agent starters are Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy, both of whom rejected the qualifying offer. Doug Fister, Tim Lincecum, and Cliff Lee are the top reclamation projection arms. Meh.

The Marlins have a protected first round pick (seventh overall), so the Yankees won’t move up in the 2016 draft due to the Chen signing.

Update: Chen will make $6M in 2016 and $14M in 2017, then $60M over the final three years. So yeah, they heavily backloaded the deal again.