The Yankees are reportedly interested in Martin Prado and Justin Bour even though neither of them can pitch

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

We’ve officially reached trade rumor season, folks. According to Bob Nightengale, the Yankees recently reached out to the Marlins to let them know they have interest in third baseman Martin Prado and first baseman Justin Bour. The Red Sox are after Prado as well. The Marlins shipped Adeiny Hechavarria to the Rays earlier this week, which is a pretty good indication they are open for business and ready to move veterans.

A nagging hamstring injury has limited Prado, 33, to 22 games this season, during which he’s hit .276/.297/.391 (79 wRC+). He returned to the lineup last Friday. Prado spent the second half of the 2014 season with the Yankees before being sent to Miami for Nathan Eovaldi, as I’m sure you know. The 29-year-old Bour is hitting .289/.364/.564 (140 wRC+) with 18 homers in 66 games this year. Who knew? Anyway, this is our first real trade rumor of the season, so let’s talk it out.

1. Does this rumor pass the sniff test? The always important first question. There are so many rumors out there these days that it’s important to keep things in perspective. In this case, yeah, I think the rumor makes sense. We know the Yankees have been looking for a third baseman. They also need a first baseman given Greg Bird‘s ongoing injury issues. The headline was a weak attempt at humor. The Yankees need bullpen help more than anything right now. That’s no reason not to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster though.

2. Prado is pretty darn expensive. Generally speaking, Prado is a solid hitter. Not a great hitter and not a terrible hitter. He was very good during his half-season with the Yankees and that seems to have left a lasting impression on many folks. It happens. That’s not who he is all the time though. Prado is more or less an average offensive producer at this point of his career:


Source: FanGraphsMartin Prado

I don’t dispute that Prado is a better player than Chase Headley, and apparently the Yankees don’t dispute it either, which is why they’ve shown interest in him. The potential hang-up here is Prado’s contract. The Marlins signed him to an extension last September and he’s owed $11.5M this year, $13.5M next year, and $15M the year after that. Paying 35-year-old Martin Prado a $15M salary in 2019 doesn’t sound fun.

The Yankees are trying to get under the luxury tax in the near future (i.e. 2018) and acquiring Prado would make that more difficult. I suppose the Marlins could eat some money to facilitate a trade, though that seems unlikely, not with the Red Sox after him as well. Besides, Jeffrey Loria is trying to sell the team, so the less money he has on the books, the better. They’ll want to move Prado’s entire contract, the same way they moved Hechavarria’s entire contract.

Headley is a sunk cost at this point. The Yankees owe him his $13M salary this year and $13M salary next year no matter what. Perhaps they could unload part of it in a salary dump after acquiring Prado, though they almost certainly won’t be able to get out of all of it. Between taking on Prado’s salary and Headley’s existing contract, the Yankees would end up paying something like $25M total for two okay-ish third basemen next year. Eh.

3. Bour is a really great fit. Bour, on the other, would really fit the Yankees both now and in the future. He’s a left-handed hitter with big pull power, and that always plays well in Yankee Stadium. Bour also draws plenty of walks (10.3%) and won’t strike out a ton (22.5%). That’s more or less what the Yankee were hoping to get from Bird this season, right? A .289/.364/.564 (140 wRC+) line with 18 homers at the almost halfway point and solid strikeout and walk numbers? I’d say so.

There are, however, two big drawbacks with Bour. For starters, he probably could use a platoon partner. His numbers against lefties this season are pretty good, actually (.340/.421/.740, 198 wRC+), but that’s a sample size issue. Bour’s career numbers against lefties (.261/.323/.438, 104 wRC+) tell a different story. And two, he’s very shiftable. Here is his spray chart, via Baseball Savant:

justin-bour-spray-chart

Bour has power to all fields, yeah, but when he doesn’t hit the ball over the fence, chances are he’s going to hit it to the right side of the field. Opponents will load up their defense on the first base side of second base. Bour is among the most shifted hitters in the big leagues and that spray chart tells you why. He’s a dead pull lefty.

The Yankees used to have several players like that in their lineup. It was a problem. Now they have none with Bird on the disabled list. Acquiring Bour and carrying one pull happy lefty is no big deal. It’s okay to have one guy like that in the lineup. Putting three or four guys like that in the lineup day after day can be an issue though. The Yankees aren’t there.

As I said a few weeks ago, the Yankees should consider acquiring a new first baseman and treating this almost as a rehab year for Bird. Let him rest as much as he needs and then give him a ton of Triple-A at-bats to get his timing back. Picking up a first baseman will eliminate any sense of urgency to get Bird back to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Remember, he’s coming off shoulder surgery too. It’s not just the ankle.

Bour could step in at first base for Bird this year, provide that left-handed thump, then stick around to serve as the designated hitter (and Bird insurance) going forward. He’s under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2020. This isn’t a rental. The Yankee are pretty short on left-handed power going forward. It’s Bird and Didi Gregorius, and that’s pretty much it. Most of their top prospects are right-handed hitters. Bour would help balance the lineup.

4. Are we heading for a Yankees-Red Sox bidding war? I suppose it’s possible for Prado. The Red Sox are desperate for third base help, and Dave Dombrowski is not one to take half-measures. He’s going to go get a third baseman and Prado is as good a candidate as anyone. The Red Sox don’t need a first baseman or a designated hitter, so a bidding war for Bour ain’t happening.

That all said, I can’t help but feel the Marlins may be using the Yankees to jack up the price for the Red Sox. Yeah, Prado would make the Yankee better, so there’s a fit, but his contract situation complicates things. The Marlins just need it to seem plausible though. Get the Yankees involved and try to get the Red Sox to pay move. And you know what? I bet Brian Cashman would happily go along with it.

The opposite could be true too, you know. The Marlins could be using the Red Sox to drive up the price for the Yankees. That isn’t quite as believable though. Boston is all-in right now. They’re a win-now team and it stands to reason they’d more aggressively pursue Prado given their third base hole. The Yankees are still focused on their youth movement and reluctant to trade prospects. Eh, whatever.

* * *

I like the idea of the Yankees picking up Bour given the first base situation, though I don’t love adding Prado. The Yankees would be adding another okay veteran third baseman on top of the okay veteran third baseman they already have, except this one is owed more money and under contract an extra year. There’s no harm in kicking the tires because hey, the Marlins could always decide to give Prado away, but that doesn’t seem likely. Bour’s a really good fit in my opinion. I don’t consider Prado enough of an upgrade to take on that contract.

Report: Derek Jeter part of ownership group with deal to buy Marlins for $1.3 billion

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

It looks like Derek Jeter‘s dream of being an owner is coming true. According to Barry Jackson, Jeter is part of an ownership group that has agreed in principle to purchase the Miami Marlins from Jeffrey Loria for $1.3 billion. There are still some details to work through, plus MLB and the other owners have to give approval, so the sale is not final.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush is leading the ownership group and will be the “control person” while Jeter will have an “active role” with the franchise, according to Jackson. Sounds like a Magic Johnson situation. The Guggenheim Partners own controlling interest in the Dodgers, but Johnson owns a piece and is basically the face of the ownership group.

Loria has been looking to sell the team for months now and at one point reportedly had a $1.6 billion handshake agreement in place, but that fell apart due to political reasons. Loria purchased the Marlins for $158.5M back in 2002. He sold the Expos to MLB and bought the Marlins from John Henry, who then bought the Red Sox. It was essentially three sales at once.

Jeter has made it no secret he wants to one day own a team, and while he won’t have controlling interest in the Marlins, he has a piece of the pie. I have to say, I always figured Alex Rodriguez would buy into the Marlins. Not Jeter. The team is right in A-Rod‘s backyard. A-Rod buys the Marlins and Jeter buys the Rays. That’s how it’s supposed to work!

In all seriousness, it’s going to be kinda weird seeing the Cap’n promoting the Marlins, huh? What if he throws a ceremonial first pitch in a Marlins jersey? That’s going to be weird. I’m sure Hal Steinbrenner will love cutting Jeter and the Marlins a revenue sharing check too. That won’t be awkward at all.

Saturday Links: Tanaka, Extensions, Jeter, Torreyes

Can he DH? (Brian Blanco/Getty)
Can he play a little outfield? (Brian Blanco/Getty)

The Yankees and Orioles continue their three-game series with the middle game later this afternoon. Until then, here are some bits of news and notes to check out.

Yankees shoot down Tanaka opt-out report

The Yankees have shot down a report that said they would not pursue Masahiro Tanaka should he exercise his opt-out clause after the season. “It ain’t on my radar screen right now — an entire season to play. Secondly, anyone that knows me knows that I don’t get emotional or personal about business. Any decision then will be made on a solid analysis of all the relevant data, per usual,” said Hal Steinbrenner to George King. Brian Cashman and Randy Levine rejected the report too.

The original report sounded like the Yankees trying to negotiate through the media and it didn’t really pass the sniff test. Why make a free agent decision in April? If Tanaka opts out, it will be because he stayed healthy and had a very good 2017 season, in which case he’d be in high demand. Why close the door on that guy in April? There’s also this: If the Yankees truly do not intend to pursue Tanaka after he opts out, they should trade him as soon as possible. Can’t let him go for nothing but a dinky draft pick.

Yankees not yet thinking about extensions for young players

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees are not yet considering long-term contract extensions for young players like Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. “It’s a bit premature,” said Cashman. One of the reasons? The luxury tax. Signing any pre-arbitration player to an extension now means their luxury tax number would be equal to the average annual value of the contract. Sanchez and Bird will both make six figures in 2018, which will help the Yankees immensely with the luxury tax situation. They’re desperately trying to get under the threshold.

“It can be an issue. I am not saying we have confronted the issue with Hal, but that would be a hurdle to get past. I am not saying it is unsurpassable, but that is my best guess,” said Cashman. Interestingly enough, Cashman also seemed to indicate the Yankees are more open to discussing an extension with Didi Gregorius. Gregorius can be a free agent after the 2019 season. Bird has to wait until after 2021 and Sanchez (and Aaron Judge) until after 2022. I wrote about this early this week. Signing these guys now could save millions down the road, but it would also make it more difficult to get under the luxury tax threshold next year.

Jeter involved in bidding for Marlins

(Koji Watanabe/Getty)

Since retiring, Derek Jeter has become a husband and he will soon become a father. Now he wants to own a baseball team. According to Charlie Gasparino, Brian Schwartz, and Tim Healey, Jeter is involved with a group led by longtime investment banker Gregory Fleming that is bidding for the Miami Marlins. Two other ownership groups are in the running too. MLB has to be kept in the loop during the process and the league is aware of Jeter’s involvement.

“There are many groups who are interested. We field offers often. The difference now is those offers are being looked at very seriously,” said Marlins president David Samson. Owner Jeffrey Loria reportedly had a handshake agreement in place to sell the team for $1.6 billion a few weeks ago, but that fell apart. Jeter has made it no secret he would one day like to own a team, and getting involved as the face of an ownership a la Magic Johnson and the Dodgers would seem to make the most sense.

Torreyes is keeping No. 74

I thought this was a fun little story. Ronald Torreyes gave up his No. 17 to Matt Holliday this year — Holliday wore No. 5 with the Rockies and Athletics, and No. 7 with the Cardinals, and those numbers weren’t going to happen with the Yankees — and, in exchange, Holliday bought him a new suit, according to Dan Martin. Torreyes then picked No. 74 because that’s the number the Yankees gave him when he joined the organization last year.

“Last year, 74 was the number they gave me when I arrived for Spring Training. This year, I used it again and had good results with it (in the spring), so I decided to keep it,” said Torreyes to Martin. That’s pretty neat. Better than the time the Yankees ripped No. 29 away from Francisco Cervelli and gave it to Rafael Soriano. I enjoy seeing young guys in the lineup with uncommon numbers like 74 and 99. Gives them a little personalty.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Wednesday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The Yankees sure do know how to make things complicated, don’t they? Rather than continue to fade out of the postseason race and into obscurity, the Yankees have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games to climb to within four games of the second wildcard spot. There are still three teams ahead of them, but hey, that’s better than six. FanGraphs put their postseason odds at 10.1% as of this writing.

Two days ago the Yankees made what can no doubt be described as a “sellers” trade when they shipped Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for Adam Warren and three minors leaguers. Will they continue to sell pieces before Monday’s trade deadline? Or will the recent hot streak prompt them to go out and add help? I guess we’ll find out over the next five days. Here are Tuesday’s rumors. We’ll again keep track of the day’s Yankees’ rumors right here, so check back often for updates. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:30am: The Yankees seek big league ready players in any Andrew Miller trade. They were willing to take true minor league prospects for Chapman, but not Miller. They want players who can help right now. That’s smart. There’s no urgency to trade Miller given his contract situation. Someone’s going to have to blow them away. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: In addition to the Marlins, the Rangers are also in the mix for Ivan Nova. The Yankees are said to be looking to move Nova next now that Chapman’s gone. He’s a rental and he hasn’t pitched all that well, but there are so few quality starters on the market that I bet they get something halfway decent for him. [George King]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.

Trade Deadline Notes: Nats, Sabathia, Blue Jays, Pineda

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The trade deadline is now only nine days away, and according to FanGraphs, the Yankees have a 9.6% chance to make the postseason. That’s not very good. Buster Olney (video link) said yesterday Aroldis Chapman could be dealt as soon as this weekend, though I’m not sure I buy that. “The Yankees are playing it smart and will likely take it to the end to get the most,” said an official with another team to George King. Here are the latest trade rumblings.

Nats make top prospects off-limits

Despite their interest in Chapman, Barry Svrluga reports the Nationals will not trade top prospects Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, or Reynaldo Lopez for the hard-throwing lefty. Every team says they’re unwilling to trade their top prospects this time of year, so I wouldn’t make too much of this. It’s just posturing.

If the Nationals are serious about getting Chapman (or Andrew Miller), they’ll have to put one of those guys on the table. Lopez seems most likely, mostly because he’s the lowest rated prospect of the bunch. He’s not bad — Baseball America had him 48th in their midseason top 100 — the other guys are just really, really good. Based on what Miller fetched two years ago, I think Lopez would be a fair return for Chapman.

Blue Jays scouted Sabathia

The Blue Jays had a scout watching CC Sabathia‘s most recent start, reports Jon Heyman. George King says the Astros, Mets, Marlins, and Cubs also had scouts on hand Thursday. It’s worth noting Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro was in the Indians’ front office all those years Sabathia was in Cleveland, including most as GM. There’s a bit of a connection there.

We heard Sabathia has been drawing some interest the other day, though I have a hard time believing it’s serious interest. I’m guessing it’s more “if you eat a ton of money we’ll take him off your hands” interest. Also, an intradivision trade with the Blue Jays probably isn’t happening, even though you could argue trading Sabathia to an AL East rival would be good for the Yankees.

Giants, Astros, Cubs among teams to scout Pineda

The Giants, Astros, Cubs, and “a ton” of others were on hand to see Michael Pineda‘s most recent start, report Jon Morosi and Chris Cotillo. Pineda had his first scoreless start of the season Wednesday, and he had maybe his nastiest slider of the season too. As Katie pointed out in Yankeemetrics, Pineda generated 18 swings and misses with his slider that game, the most by any pitcher in baseball in 2016.

The Yankees are at the point where they have to figure out what they want to do with Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi. Do they want to keep them long-term? If so, they should start thinking about extensions. If they don’t want them long-term, then they should trade them soon to get as much back as possible. I understand waiting and hoping they rebuild value in the second half, but I think it’s more likely they’ll lose value going forward between the injury risk and being closer to free agency.

Trade Deadline Notes: Marlins, Indians, Nationals, Cubs

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

We are now 13 days away from the trade deadline, and while the Yankees have won two straight, their odds of playing in October are long. Buster Olney says they are going “full bore” in shaping possible trades, though ownership still needs to give the thumbs up. I wish they’d go ahead and sell now before someone gets hurt or other teams decide to drop out of the race and sell. There’s a lot of demand and not much supply right now. That works in New York’s favor. Alas. They’re still not ready to move players. Anyway, here’s the latest from the rumor mill.

Pineda among Marlins’ targets

The Marlins are working to add a starter before the trade deadline and Michael Pineda is on their list of targets, reports Jon Morosi. Miami and the Yankees discussed Aroldis Chapman a few weeks back, so the two teams have been in contact. It’s unclear if the Yankees and Marlins have actually talked about a Pineda deal, or if the Marlins simply admire him from afar.

Morosi says the Marlins are interested in Jeremy Hellickson and Andrew Cashner in addition to Pineda. All three of those guys kinda suck, but Hellickson and Cashner are rentals while Pineda has an extra year of control. That figures to play a role in Miami’s decision making. As I’ve said though, the Marlins don’t have many prospects to offer. Their system isn’t very good. That’s why the Yankees wanted big league players for Chapman.

Indians prefer Miller to Chapman

The Indians are in the hunt for a shutdown left-handed reliever, and Ken Rosenthal says Andrew Miller is “probably” their top target. Rosenthal says they prefer Miller to Chapman, presumably because he’s willing to be a setup man and has two extra years of team control. Jerry Crasnick says the feeling within the game is the Indians are more inclined to make a blockbuster trade than they normally would because they’re in first place and the club is already so well-rounded.

Not coincidentally, Keith Law says the Yankees had two scouts on hand to see left-hander and top Indians pitching prospect Justus Sheffield this afternoon. Other top prospects on the loaded High-A Lynchburg roster include first baseman Bobby Bradley, catcher Francisco Mejia, and shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang. Those guys are all far away from MLB and I imagine the Yankees want talent closer to the show for Miller, so perhaps these guys are being looked at as second and third pieces in a deal. Cleveland had seven (!) players on Baseball America’s midseason top 100 prospects list. Here is MLB.com’s top 30 Indians prospects list with free scouting reports and all that.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)
(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Chapman is Nats’ most likely target

According to Rosenthal, Chapman is the Nationals’ most likely target at the deadline. That makes sense. Dusty Baker had Chapman in Cincinnati and the Nats tried to get him from the Reds over the winter — even after the domestic violence incident — but the Yankees beat them to it. How would Chapman and Jonathan Papelbon co-exist? That ain’t my problem. That’s up to Washington to figure out.

Interestingly, Rosenthal says top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito is not as untouchable as he once was. I still highly doubt the Nationals would give him up for a reliever, even one as good as Chapman or Miller. Any trade sending Giolito to the Yankees — and let’s be clear, that is an extreme long shot — would have to be a blockbuster with high-end talent going to Washington. Maybe something like Chapman, Masahiro Tanaka, and Brett Gardner for Giolito and stuff. I dunno, I’m just spitballing here. My trade proposal sucks.

Cubs haven’t made best offer for Miller or Chapman

To date, the Cubs have not made the best trade offer for Miller or Chapman, reports Jon Heyman. To be perfectly honest, I read this report and assumed it was a leak from the Yankees intended to get Chicago to up their offer. The Cubbies have been scouting Miller and Chapman for weeks — they’re said to prefer Miller to Chapman like pretty much everyone else (except the Nats, I guess) — and there’s a definite need for a shutout lefty reliever in their bullpen.

Jeff Passan says the Yankees covet the injured Kyle Schwarber — “Cash thinks he can hit 50 home runs there,” said one of Passan’s sources — but the Cubs are not budging. They won’t deal him for a reliever, not even Miller. The Cubs have lots of prospects to offer though, so being unable to get Schwarber shouldn’t end trade talks. Assuming Heyman’s report is a leak from the Yankees, I see nothing wrong with trying to squeeze a little more out of Chicago. The Yankees control the bullpen market right now.

Trade Deadline Notes: Beltran, Royals, Nationals, Rangers

(Harry How/Getty)
(Harry How/Getty)

Thanks to last night’s win over the BoSox, the Yankees improved their postseason odds to … 5.2%. That’s not so good. Ownership still has not whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline according to Buster Olney, which is no surprise. I’m guessing they won’t make that decision until the very last moment. I just hope none of their top trade chips get hurt between now and then. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous trade notes.

Yankees, Royals talked Beltran

According to George King, the Yankees and Royals discussed a trade involving Carlos Beltran earlier this season. Apparently reliever Luke Hochevar’s name came up. The Royals are short on offense at the moment and they have a huge hole in right field, so while Beltran doesn’t fit their mold as a premium defender, he’d sure as heck improve their lineup. Remember, Kansas City tried to sign Beltran as a free agent two offseason ago.

Hochevar being part of trade talks is interesting if not a little weird. He’s a solid middle reliever (3.86 ERA and 3.83 FIP) and an impending free agent, but trading rental Beltran for a rental reliever makes no sense for the Yankees. I think Hochevar would have been part of the deal as a way to offset money on Kansas City’s end. (He’s making $6M total this year.) Beltran for Hochevar and a prospect or two seems like the final outcome there. There’s no word on whether talks were serious or are ongoing.

Yankees scouting Nationals, Triple-A affiliate

The Yankees spent the weekend scouting the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate and will cover the big league team this week, reports Barry Svrluga. It’s hard not notice Washington will be calling up pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez from Triple-A to make his MLB debut tomorrow night. Pitching prospects Austin Voth and A.J. Cole are currently with Triple-A Syracuse as well.

Lopez, who Baseball America ranked as the 48th best prospect in baseball in their midseason top 100, has long been speculated as a possible trade target for New York. That said, he didn’t pitch in Triple-A this weekend, so Yankees’ scouts in Syracuse didn’t see him. He threw an inning in the Futures Game in San Diego on Sunday. Voth and Cole pitched Friday and Saturday in Triple-A, respectively, for what’s it worth. The Nationals have interest in Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, so it’s no surprise the Yankees are scouting their system. They’re scouting everyone’s system.

(Denis Poroy/Getty)
(Denis Poroy/Getty)

Rangers want Yankees to take on money in potential Miller trade

According to Jeff Wilson, the Rangers would like the Yankees to eat some money in a potential Miller trade. Miller is owed whatever is left of his $9M salary this season plus another $9M in both 2017 and 2018. That’s certainly very reasonable given his on-field production, but who knows what Texas’ financials look like. A $9M a year reliever may not be feasible to them.

Of course, given their financial might, the Yankees should be willing to eat money to facilitate any trade as long as it means a greater package of players coming back. It seems silly to pay someone as good as Miller to play elsewhere, but you know what? If it’s the difference between getting a very good prospect and an elite prospect, why not? The Yankees have the money. That’s a good way to leverage their financial firepower.

Cubs, others continue to scout Yankees

Yet another high-ranking Cubs official was at Yankee Stadium this weekend, presumably to scout their bullpen pieces, reports George King. They’ve now had three different scouts and pro scouting director Jared Porter watch New York’s end-game relievers in recent weeks. That ain’t routine coverage. The Cubs are getting multiple eyes on these guys because they want as much information as possible before getting serious about a trade.

King says the Braves, Rangers, Marlins, Cardinals, Nationals, Royals, and Giants have also been scouting the Yankees recently. I’m not quite sure what the Braves were doing there. Maybe they were checking guys out in the case the Yankees decide to buy or something? The other five clubs all make sense though. They’re all contending and they all have some kind of clear need New York may be able to address via trade. The deadline is exactly two weeks away.