Via LaVelle E. Neal: The Twins have agreed to sign Phil Hughes to a three-year contract worth $24M. I thought he would take a one-year deal, hope to rebuild value in 2014, then try to land a big contract next winter, when he would still only be 28. Hughes appears to have gone for the biggest payday instead, which is never a bad idea. Target Field should help his homerun problem, at least somewhat. The Yankees will not receive a compensation draft pick because they didn’t make Hughes a qualifying offer.
I couldn’t think of a better way to finish off the traditional first half than with three games against the Twins at Yankee Stadium. Following last week’s four-game sweep in Target Field, the Yankees have won 71 of 91 games against Minnesota during the Ron Gardenhire era. That includes the postseason and is completely ridiculous.
What Have They Done Lately?
Since getting swept by the Yankees, the Twins lost two of three to the Blue Jays and four straight to the Rays. They’ve lost their last five games and ten of their last eleven games overall. Gardenhire’s team is 37-52 with a -55 run differential, the third and fourth worst marks in the league, respectively.
At 4.1 runs per game with a team 93 wRC+, the Twins are a bit below the league average offensively. They are withing OF Josh Willingham (112 wRC+), who will miss several weeks following knee surgery. OF Darin Mastroianni (50 wRC+) and OF Wilkin Ramirez (57 wRC+) are both on the DL as well. None of the three will return in time for this series.
Obviously, the centerpiece here is C Joe Mauer (138 wRC+), who remains one of baseball’s great pure hitters. 1B Justin Morneau (102 wRC+) doesn’t have the same power he once did, and C/OF/DH Ryan Doumit (90 wRC+) isn’t having a great year. 3B Trevor Plouffe (107 wRC+) and OF Oswaldo Arcia (104 wRC+) have been productive though. OF Clete Thomas has had his moments as well (95 wRC+ in limited time).
There’s not much to see on the rest of he roster. IF Brian Dozier (92 wRC+) get regular reps at second base and IF Pedro Florimon (65 wRC+) is the starting shortstop. IF Jamey Carroll (46 wRC+) and IF Eduardo Escobar (62 wRC+) are the seldom-used reserves. OF Aaron Hicks (71 wRC+) was banged up the last two times these teams played but has since returned to the lineup full-time.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Friday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. LHP Scott Diamond
Diamond, 26, has become a rotation mainstay after being plucked from the Braves in the Rule 5 Draft a few years ago. He’s got a 5.52 ERA (5.08 FIP) in 16 starts with classic Twins peripherals, meaning a low strikeout rate (4.30 K/9 and 11.1 K%), a low walk-rate (2.15 BB/9 and 5.5 BB%), a high homer rate (1.53 HR/9 and 14.4% HR/FB), and a solid ground ball rate (46.8%). Diamond sits in the upper-80s with his four-seamer and in the low-80s with his curveball and changeup. The Yankees scored three runs in 6.2 innings off the southpaw two weeks ago.
Saturday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Samuel Deduno
The 30-year-old Deduno was a star for the Dominican Republic during the World Baseball Classic and has been pretty good for the Twins in nine starts (3.90 ERA and 4.13 FIP). He’s a big-time ground ball guy (61.1%) who doesn’t miss bats (4.55 K/9 and 11.9 K%) but will limit walks (2.77 BB/9 and 7.2 BB%) and homers (0.65 HR/9 and 10.5% HR/FB). Deduno’s bread-and-butter is his low-90s four-seamer, but he also throws low-90s cutters, low-80s curveballs, and low-80s changeups. You might remember all those ground balls he induced from the Yankees the last time these two clubs met, when he held New York to three runs in six innings.
Sunday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
This will be the 25-year-old Gibson’s fourth career big league start, and in the first three he owns a 7.27 ERA but a 3.12 FIP. He hasn’t struck many batters out (5.19 K/9 and 12.8 K%) but he has gotten grounders (54.1%) and kept the walks to a minimum (2.60 BB/9 and 6.4 BB%). Gibson has yet to allow a homer. He is a three-fastball guy, with upper-80s two-seamers, four-seamers, and cutters setting up a mid-70s slider and rarely used low-80s changeup. The Yankees punished Gibson for eight runs in 5.2 innings two starts ago.
The Twins and Rays played a 12-inning game on Wednesday that wrecked the Minnesota bullpen. Closer LHP Glen Perkins (1.84 FIP) is fresh, but LHP Brian Duensing (3.10 FIP), RHP Casey Fien (2.88 FIP), and RHP Josh Roenicke (5.10 FIP) have each appeared in two of the last three games. RHP Jared Burton (3.73 FIP), RHP Anthony Swarzak (3.40 FIP), RHP Ryan Pressly (3.21 FIP), and RHP Michael Tonkin (1.57 FIP in very limited time) round out the eight-man bullpen.
The Yankees are in fine bullpen shape heading into the weekend; no workload concerns here. With the All-Star break coming up, I’m sure Joe Girardi won’t have any trouble using guys a little more than normal. Three days in a row, maybe four or five outs instead of three, stuff like that. Our Bullpen Workload page has all the details. Twinkie Town and Aaron Gleeman are my Twins blogs of choice.
Whenever the Yankees have needed a few wins over the years — and they certainly need a few right now — they could always count on the Twins. New York has won 67 of 87 (!) games against Minnesota during the Ron Gardenhire era (including playoffs), and four of those 20 losses came against in-his-prime Johan Santana. The Bombers are also 12-3 at Target Field, which is where these four games will be played. Hopefully the domination continues.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Twinkies just split a four-game series against the Royals and have won just three of their last nine games. They sit in fourth place in the AL Central at 36-42 with a -28 run differential.
At 4.2 runs per game with a team 97 wRC+, the Twins are pretty close to a league average offense. They are currently without CF Aaron Hicks (57 wRC+), OF Darin Mastroianni (51 wRC+), and OF Wilkin Ramirez (57 wRC+), all of whom are on the DL and will not return in time for this series. OF Josh Willingham (113 wRC+) has been dealing with a knee issue and is day-to-day. He should return at some point this week if not tonight.
As usual, the centerpiece of the Minnesota offense is C Joe Mauer (144 wRC+), who quietly continues to be one of the best hitters in the world. 1B Justin Morneau (107 wRC+) is still productive even if he isn’t the hitter he once was. Rookie OF Oswaldo Arcia (126 wRC+) has had a nice start to his big league career and 3B Trevor Plouffe (118 wRC+) has bounced back well after missing time with concussion and leg issues earlier this year. OF Clete Thomas (115 wRC+ in limited time) has stepped in as the leadoff hitter with Hicks on the DL and DH Ryan Doumit (92 wRC+) has been his typically okay but not great self.
The rest of the lineup is a bit of a mixed bag. OF Chris Parmelee (91 wRC+) has some power and SS Pedro Florimon (71 wRC+) has some speed while IF Brian Dozier (87 wRC+) has a little of both. IF Eduardo Escobar (69 wRC+) and IF Jamey Carroll (46 wRC+) round out the lot of position players. The Twins are currently using a three-man bench even with Willingham banged up.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Monday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. LHP Scott Diamond
The Twins struck Rule 5 Draft gold with the 26-year-old Diamond in 2011 — technically, they traded for his rights in Spring Training that year and didn’t have to jump through the Rule 5 hoops — as he pitched to a 3.54 ERA (3.94 FIP) in 27 starts a year ago. He opened this season on the DL after having offseason surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, and he’s since posted a 5.40 ERA (4.48 FIP) in 14 starts. His walk (1.88 BB/9 and 4.9 BB%) rate is excellent and he gets plenty of grounders (47.8%), but he misses no bats (4.23 K/9 and 11.0 K%) and will give up the long ball (1.17 HR/9 and 10.8% HR/FB). Diamond is the pitch-to-contact philosophy personified. He’ll throw his upper-80s four-seam fastball almost two-thirds of the time, using it to set up his low-80s curveball and changeup. It’s worth noting he’s had a reverse platoon split during his entire big league career. The Yankees didn’t see Diamond at all last year, but they crushed him for five runs on ten hits in a four-inning start in 2011.
Tuesday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Sam Deduno
Deduno, who turns 30 tomorrow, was called up a few weeks ago and has pitched to a 3.32 ERA (3.79 FIP) in seven starts. His strikeout rate (4.98 K/9 and 13.0 K%) is terrible, but he limits walks (2.91 BB/9 and 7.6 BB%) and doesn’t give up any homers (0.42 HR/9 and 6.9% HR/FB) because he gets a freakin’ ton of ground balls (60.7%). That’s not just a small sample size thing, he has a 59.0% career ground ball rate in parts of four big league seasons. Deduno lives off his low-90s four-seamer and cutter, but he also throws a ton of low-80s curveballs and a handful of low-80s changeups. It’s worth noting he has a decent-sized reverse platoon split — lefties have gotten him for a .307 wOBA in his career, righties a .351 wOBA — which might have to do with the cutter. Deduno started a game against the Yankees late last year, but he was forced from the game after just 1.2 scoreless innings with an eye issue.
Wednesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP P.J. Walters
The Twins have really had to scrape the bottom of the pitching barrel this year. The 28-year-old Walters has a 6.03 ERA (5.24 FIP) in seven starts, and he comes with the low strikeout rate (4.98 K/9 and 11.8 K%) required of all Minnesota starters. He doesn’t really limit walks (3.93 BB/9 and 9.3 BB%) and he has been homer prone (1.31 HR/9 and 11.6% HR/FB) because he doesn’t get a ton of grounders (42.4%). A trio of upper-80s fastballs — two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter — set up a mid-70s slider that he throws more than 30% of the time. He’ll use a low-80s changeup on occasion. Walters has never faced the Yankees despite spending parts of each of the last five seasons in the show.
Thursday: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Minnesota called up their top pitching prospect last week, and he held Kansas City to two runs in six innings while striking out five and walking zero. A fine debut, to be sure. Before the call-up, the 25-year-old Gibson had a 3.11 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 15 Triple-A starts with good peripherals: 7.67 K/9 (21.3 K%), 2.72 BB/9 (7.6 BB%), 0.39 HR/9, and 58% grounders. He works primarily off a low-90s four-seamer that sets the stage for his mid-80s changeup and nasty low-80s slider. That’s the pitch that got him drafted 22nd overall in the 2009 draft. Obviously the Yankees have never faced Gibson before, but I suppose it’s worth noting Zoilo Almonte and David Adams saw him in Triple-A back in April.
The Royals roughed up Kevin Correia yesterday, so Gardenhire had to get four innings from his bullpen. Closer LHP Glen Perkins (1.88 FIP) did not pitch but setup man RHP Jared Burton (3.91 FIP) did. Long man RHP Ryan Pressly (3.27 FIP) threw two innings and middle man RHP Josh Roenicke (5.22 FIP) threw one as well. LHP Brian Duensing (2.95 FIP) and LHP Caleb Thielbar (2.74 FIP) are the matchup guys while RHP Anthony Swarzak (3.25 FIP) and RHP Casey Fien (3.09 FIP) round out the eight-man bullpen. It’s a sneaky good pen. Not great, but effective.
The Yankees are in good shape as far as their relievers go, and in fact we’ve reached the point where Mariano Rivera and David Robertson need get some work in. Neither guy has pitched since last Tuesday, and Rivera hasn’t even warmed up since then. Robertson warmed up on Wednesday, that’s it. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact recent reliever usage details. For the latest and greatest on the Twins, check out Twinkie Town and Aaron Gleeman.
The Twins and Yankees had a very one-sided rivalry in the mid-to-late-aughts, a rivalry that included four ALDS matchups from 2003-2010 and two wins by Minnesota. Not series wins, individual game wins. New York took all four of those ALDS meetings by a total of 12 wins to two.
The Twins have run off a pair of 95+ loss seasons since last getting bounced from the postseason by the Yankees, so they’re in something resembling a rebuilding phase. I say “something resembling a rebuilding phase” only because they’re still signing free agents and trying to piece together a contender given their weak division, yet they’re still closer to another 95-loss campaign that a playoff berth.
If Minnesota does decide to commit to a rebuild this winter (unlikely but possible), they would have several pieces of interest to the Yankees. I’m not talking about Joe Mauer, whose contract is prohibitive and days behind the plate are numbered, or even Ryan Doumit, who just signed a contract extension. Yesterday I wrote about utility man Jamey Carroll, now here are two outfielders who might fit in New York…
When you hit .260/.366/.524 (143 wRC+) with 35 homers and a 12.4% walk rate, you’re going to generate some buzz like the soon-to-be 34-year-old Willingham did this season. The Twins reeled him in with a three-year contract worth $21M last offseason, a deal that sure looks like one of the biggest bargains of the winter at this point.
The Yankees need to replace Nick Swisher and Willingham is one of the few outfielders who can provide similar offensive production. This year was a career year for him and I don’t expect him to repeat it, but he still hit .257/.360/.476 (127 wRC+) with an average of 23 homers per year from 2009-2011. He’s consistently offered power (.233 ISO since 2010) and patience (12.2 BB%), plus his right-handed bat would help balance out a lineup short on righty power given Alex Rodriguez‘s decline.
Willingham, however, is an atrocious defensive outfielder who has only gotten worse following 2010 knee surgery. His best position is probably first base or even DH at this point. You’re also getting nothing on the basepaths and usually a stint on the DL at some point during the season as well. His value stems exclusively from his bat, but luckily for Willingham he can really hit.
The 28-year-old Span is generally considered to be more attainable than Willingham because the Twins already have his center field replacement lined up — Ben Revere put together an 88 wRC+ and stole 40 bases while playing stellar defense this summer. Span is signed to a long-term contract that will pay him $4.75M next year and $6.5M the year after before a $9M club option ($500k buyout) comes into play for 2015. For luxury tax purposes, the average annual value is a friendly $3.3M.
The concern for the Yankees is that Span is basically Brett Gardner with half the stolen bases and half the called strike threes. He broke out during the 2008-2009 seasons (119 wRC+ in 1,087 plate appearances) but has hit just .271/.334/.397 (95 wRC+) in 1,584 plate appearances since. Concussion and shoulder problems have hampered him the last two years and could be to blame for the declining offense, but he was perfectly healthy in 2010 and still managed an 89 wRC+ in over 700 plate appearances.
What Span does provide is crazy good contact skills from the left side (10.9 K% and 92.0% contract lasts three years) and some patience (8.5 BB%) to go along with dynamite defensive ability. He ranks ninth in UZR (+21.9) and tenth in DRS (+24) among all outfielders over the last three seasons, but he hasn’t played anywhere other than center since 2009. Although it would create a stellar defensive outfield, Span and Gardner are completely redundant. The Yankees would be lucky to get ten homers out of the duo combined.
* * *
One of the oddest trade discussions to (reportedly) take place in recent years involved Span and the Nationals at last year’s deadline, when the Twins were willing to trade him for a reliever (Drew Storen) but Washington haggled over which reliever (offered Tyler Clippard instead). Given their lack of a long-term center fielder, it seemed like an easy call for the Nats. I highly doubt the Yankees would be lucky enough to pry Span away with just a reliever now that Minnesota has revamped their bullpen (3.77 ERA and 4.09 FIP in 2012), but even if they wanted to replace Swisher with a contact-and-speed, defense-first outfielder, they’d probably just re-sign Ichiro Suzuki. They know him and it would only cost money.
Willingham is a different case since the only free agent outfielders who could match his offensive production are Josh Hamilton and Swisher. Normally bringing a dead pull right-handed hitter to Yankee Stadium would give me pause, but Willingham has the kind of power to overcome Death Valley in left-center. I’m not too concerned about that with him. Considering his luxury tax friendly contract (just $7M average annual value through 2014), maybe the Yankees have to overpay a bit to get the production they need at affordable rates. The Twins appear to be very disinclined to move him however, so chances are this is all moot.
The fourth series of the Yankees’ season was a four-gamer against the Twins in Yankee Stadium, but the two clubs have not faced each other since. They split those four games and since the start of the Ron Gardenhire era in 2002, the Yankees are 65-19 (!) against Minnesota (including playoffs). Four of those 19 losses came against in-his-prime Johan Santana. The Bombers are 10-2 at the new Target Field as well, where these three games will be played.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Twins swept the Tigers in a doubleheader yesterday, which I can’t imagine went over well in Detroit. They had lost two straight prior to that, and have dropped nine of their last 17 games. Overall, the Twinkies are 64-89 with a -119 run differential. Only the Indians have a worse record in the league.
Despite the pitcher friendliness of Target Field, Minnesota averages 4.4 runs per game with a team 99 wRC+. They’re a league average offense, and that’s pretty good. Their two best hitters this year have been Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham (both 142 wRC+), who go about it very differently. Mauer hits for a sky-high average (.323) and leads the league in OBP (.416) while Willingham has 35 homers and a .265 ISO. They shouldn’t be underestimated, they’re right behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder as the best three-four combo in the AL this year.
Setting the table for Mauer and Willingham is leadoff man Denard Span (107 wRC+) while Justin Morneau (114 wRC+) bats fifth behind them. Ryan Doumit (106 wRC+) and the powerful Trevor Plouffe (103 wRC+) add length behind the middle of the order. Ben Revere (95 wRC+) and Jamey Carroll (83 wRC+) play everyday, and the recently recalled Pedro Florimon (71 wRC+) is getting regular reps at shortstop. Darin Mastroianni (103 wRC+ in limited time) plays more than the typical fourth outfielder and brings a lot of speed to the table. The September call-ups include former Yankees farmhand (and former RAB Lifetime Achievement Award honoree) Matt Carson, infielders Eduardo Escobar, Alexi Casilla, and Chris Parmalee, and catchers Drew Butera and Chris Herrmann.
Monday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. RHP Liam Hendriks
Hendriks, 23, has been up-and-down all season and has pitched to a 5.88 ERA (5.38 FIP) in 72 innings. He’s a classic Twins pitcher in that he doesn’t walk anyone (2.88 BB/9 and 7.0 BB%) and doesn’t strike anyone out (5.38 K/9 and 13.2 K%), but he doesn’t get many ground balls either (41.7%). Hendriks is five-pitch pitcher, using two upper-80s/low-90s fastballs (two- and four-seamer) to set up an array of offspeed pitches: low-80s slider, low-80s changeup, low-70s curveball. Lot of separation between those pitches. The Yankees have never faced Hendriks, who has pitched decently against the Royals and Indians the last two times out.
Tuesday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Esmerling Vazquez
A former reliever with the Diamondbacks turned starter for the Twins, the 28-year-old Vazquez has pitched to a 6.75 ERA (5.36 FIP) in four starts and 20 innings since being recalled. He’s walked 15 and struck out just eight in that time with a 31.8% ground ball rate. Vazquez is offspeed heavy, throwing his low-90s four-seamer and sinker just ~45% of the time. A low-80s changeup is his top offspeed pitch, and he’ll also mix in a mid-70s curveball. The Yankees scored five runs in zero innings (!) against Vazquez back when he was pitching out of the Arizona bullpen, but otherwise they haven’t seen him. They’ll also be the first above-average team he faces as a starter after four games against the dregs of the AL Central.
Wednesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Sam Deduno
Deduno, 29, has made 14 serviceable starts since being recalled from Triple-A at midseason (4.54 ERA and 5.54 FIP) in 77.1 innings. He gets a ton of ground balls (57.9%) and won’t miss a ton of bats (6.40 K/9 and 16.1 K%), typical Twins stuff, but he will walk himself into trouble (5.94 BB/9 and 15.0 BB%). Deduno sits right around 90 with two fastballs (four-seamer and cutter), and will throw his hard, low-80s curveball almost one-third of the time. A low-80s changeup is a distant third offering. He makes it three starters the Yankees have never faced before, for all intents and purposes.
Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters soaked up some innings as the two starters yesterday, so Gardenhire’s bullpen is in decent shape. Left-hander Glen Perkins (3.00 FIP) has assumed closer duties with Matt Capps on the DL, and he’s being setup by splangeup specialist Jared Burton (3.26 FIP). Both of those guys pitched an inning last night but otherwise had two days off beforehand.
Middle relief duties belong primarily to right-handers Casey Fien (2.18 FIP) and Alex Burnett (4.22 FIP), as well as left-handers Brian Duensing (3.86 FIP) and Tyler Robertson (3.86 FIP). Robertson is the specialist while Duensing is the multi-inning guy. Burnett was the only one of those four not to pitch in either of yesterday’s games. The lot of September call-ups is righties Luis Perdomo and Anthony Swarzak, that’s it. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for details on the Yankees’ relievers, then check out Aaron Gleeman and Twinkie Town for the latest and greatest on the Twins.
Having watched the Twins play over the last week and a half, I’m pretty sure they’re not going to win 62 games this season. They’re that bad. The Yankees also completely own them, winning 63 of 80 games during the Ron Gardenhire era (including playoffs). They’re also 10-2 in new Target Field, but this series will be played in the Bronx.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Twins have won just two of their nine games this season, both against the same Angels team that just left the Bronx. They were swept by the Orioles in the season-opening series, and they were just swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Their 28 runs scored are the fewest in the league and their 48 runs allowed are the fourth most. That -20 run differential the worst in baseball. Yeah, they’re awful.
Only twice in nine games have the Twins managed to score more than three runs. They’ve mustered no more than two runs in six of ten games, and their team .311 wOBA is the fifth worst in the league. Joe Mauer (.307 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (.276 wOBA) are shells of their former selves due to injury, though they recently homered in the same game for the first time ever at Target Field. Jamie Carroll (.276 wOBA) is either going to walk or make an out, while Chris Parmalee (.262 wOBA), Danny Valencia (.238 wOBA), Ryan Doumit (.212 wOBA), and Alexi Casilla (.182 wOBA) have contributed next to nothing.
Only two regulars in Minnesota’s lineup are doing anything with the sticks. Josh Willingham (.579 wOBA) has four of the team’s seven homers while Denard Span (.433 wOBA) has been setting the table as the leadoff hitter. Recent waiver claim Clete Thomas took over the right field job from Ben Revere (.160 wOBA) and hit a homer in his first game as a Twin yesterday. You still have to respect Mauer and Morneau because of what they were, but this lineup isn’t scaring anyone.
Monday: RHP Freddy Garcia vs. RHP Carl Pavano
Pavano has a special place in the hearts of Yankees fans thanks to his hilariously injury-riddled and ineffective stint in pinstripes back in the mid-aughts. Ironically enough, he’s turned into a innings eater since leaving New York, though he hasn’t always been effective. He owns a 4.39 ERA (4.05 FIP) over the last three years, ranking 12th in innings (656) but 35th in fWAR (9.8) among all starters. Pavano’s velocity has dropped off in a big way recently, as he now sits in the mid-80s with his sinker and low-80s with his slider, changeup, and splitter. He relies on ground balls and not strikeouts per team philosophy, and he is stingy with ball four. At 36 years old, Pavano is a junkballing righty.
Tuesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
The Twins have one guy in their rotation — really on their entire pitching staff — that can miss bats consistently, and that’s Liriano. He’s injury prone and enigmatic, two traits that are very likely to be related. On any given night he’s capable of a ten-run stinker or a two-hit shutout. Liriano relies very heavily on his offspeed pitches, specifically his wipeout mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup. His two fastballs — two and four-seamer — are more low-90s now than the mid-90s they average two years ago. Liriano has traditionally piled up a ton of strikeouts and ground balls, but walks have been an issue in recent years. He’s been very hit or miss against the Yankees, with a few strong games and a few duds.
Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. Jason Marquis
Marquis, a Staten Island-native, will be making his first start of the season after leaving the team to be with his family after his daughter suffered a near-fatal injury in a bicycle accident. She is recovering well, thankfully. Marquis threw a simulated game as a tune-up on Tuesday, and believe it or not, this will only be his second career start against the Yankees in his 12-year career. That’s what happens when you spend all 12 years in the NL. Marquis is a classic Twins pitcher, getting ground balls with an upper-80s sinker and no strikeouts with his mid-80s slider and low-80s changeup.
Thursday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Nick Blackburn
It’s a matchup of disappointing right-handers in the finale, though at least the Yankees don’t owe Hughes over $10MM from 2012-2013 like the Twins owe Blackburn. Like Pavano and Marquis, Blackburn is the prototypical pitch-to-contact back of the rotation dreck the Twins love so dearly. He gets ground balls (career 48.3%), doesn’t miss bats (career 4.33 K/9), and rarely walks anyone (career 2.20 BB/9). I feel like I’m repeating myself here. An upper-80s sinker, low-80s changeup, and mid-70s curveball are Blackburn’s weapons of choice. The Yankees have hit him very hard just about every time they’ve faced him through the years.
For what it’s worth, Blackburn left his last start due to shoulder discomfort, but the tests came back clean and he’s not expected to miss a start. There’s always a chance he could, however.
Minnesota’s bullpen has taken a bit of a beating over the last two days, with standout setup man Glen Perkins getting spanked for three runs in two-thirds of an inning over two games. He threw 23 pitches on Saturday and ten pitches yesterday, so it’s unlikely he’ll be available tonight. Right-handers Alex Burnett and Jared Burton have each pitched in three of the last four days, so I wouldn’t count on seeing either guy tonight barring an emergency.
The rest of the Twins’ bullpen is pretty well set. Closer Matt Capps is both terrible and well-rested, plus they have righty Jeff Gray and lefties Matt Maloney and Brian Duensing in reserve. Overall, their bullpen ranks 23rd in baseball with a 4.50 ERA, though their 3.83 FIP paints a rosier picture (13th in MLB). For the latest and greatest on the Twins, we recommend Aaron Gleeman and Twinkie Town.
Last week we took a nice long look at the teams who figure to be the Yankees’ primary competition this season, meaning the Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Rangers. There are eight other clubs in the American League though, and the Yankees are going to play those eight teams quite a bit more than the five other contenders. Most of those eight teams aren’t very good, but every game counts the same.
Rather than doing a boring old offense/defense/pitching preview for each of those eight non-contenders, I decided to have a little fun with this one and put together some haikus. I encourage you to leave your own in the comments.
No pitching, few bats.
Buck is all talk and no bite.
Don’t dare dis Flanny!
Chicago White Sox
Rebuild or contend?
Kenny can’t seem to decide.
I wish we had Danks.
Some funny names,
Asdrubal and Ubaldo?
Not winning this year.
Kansas City Royals
Hosmer is the shizz.
Young pitching ain’t quite there yet.
Mauer and Morneau
Used to be really awesome.
Now they are broken.
Yoenis is here.
Trade all of the pitchers!
Where are the fans?
Felix is the man,
The rest of the team sucks.
I miss Montero.
Toronto Blue Jays
AA the best,
Until he gets Jeff Mathis.
New unis do rule.