Patrick Corbin Archives - River Avenue Blues

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Corbin, Eovaldi, Miller

December 24, 2018 by Mike

It’s been five years since the last notable transaction on Christmas Eve (Dodgers signed Jamey Wright in 2013) and 13 years since the last notable transaction on Christmas Day (Angels re-signed Tim Salmon in 2005). Will we get a Christmas deal this year? Probably not! But maybe. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Machado decision will come in 2019

According to Jon Heyman, Manny Machado has let teams know his free agent decision won’t come until after New Years. Does that mean soon after New Years, as in sometime next week, or after New Years in general, as in potentially mid-to-late January (or even later)? I guess we’ll find out. Machado visited the White Sox and Phillies in addition to the Yankees last week and those three teams are believed to be his most serious (only?) suitors.

Not surprisingly, there have been reports indicating the Yankees will only sign Machado at their price, which is said to be something south of ten years and $300M. Those “the Yankees will only sign/trade for him at their price” rumors are pretty common these days. It behooves the Yankees to downplay their interest to prevent other teams from driving up the price. I get the feeling the Phillies will not be outbid for Machado. The Yankees might have to step outside their comfort zone to make this happen.

Yankees are a “lead” team for Britton

The Yankees are among the “lead” teams for free agent lefty Zach Britton, reports Heyman. The Phillies are in that mix as well. The Yankees are looking to add two relievers this offseason and they’ve been connected to Britton basically since the end of the season. He’s said he’d “love to be back” with New York as well, so there’s mutual interest. That said, money talks, and this may be Britton’s only chance at a huge free agent payday.

Between the Orioles and Yankees this past season the just turned 31-year-old Britton posted a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) with an okay strikeout rate (20.1%), a high walk rate (12.4%), and an excellent ground ball rate (73.0%). He was much better as he got further away from his offseason Achilles surgery. The Yankees have about $16M to spend under the $197M luxury tax threshold assuming Sonny Gray and his projected $9.1M salary are traded away at some point. Britton would presumably eat up most of that $16M in payroll space.

Yankees didn’t make offers to Corbin, Eovaldi, Miller

The Yankees never made official contracts offers to former free agent hurlers Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Miller according to Jack Curry, Erik Boland, and Andy Martino. This is all semantics and it gets talked about every offseason. The two sides talked contract terms, of course, but the Yankees never presented an official offer to be signed. That’s all. They discussed money and tried to found common ground and that’s the most important thing.

Once the holidays pass, the Yankees will have a lot to do before Spring Training, most notably securing a Didi Gregorius replacement and bulking up the bullpen. I get the sense the Gregorius replacement will go one of two ways. Either the Yankees will go big and sign Machado, or they’ll go cheap and sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias in February. Offers or no offers, the Yankees still have a lot to do this winter. The first few weeks after New Years should be busy.

Signing Manny Machado is the Best Path to a Dominant Rotation

December 8, 2018 by Bobby Montano

They’re talking about winning the World Series in the Bronx. (Getty Images)

The Yankees did not sign this year’s top free agent starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin will instead have six tries to help the Washington Nationals win their first playoff series. Many Yankee fans, myself included, believed that Corbin represented the Yanks’ best path to creating a dominant rotation—but the reality is that he was never the only option. The Indians are reportedly “increasingly motivated” to move Corey Kluber (and another very good but not-to-be-named starter) and the Yankees should do everything they can to acquire him.

That will not be easy. The Yankees once stacked farm system has depleted significantly over the last several years—and even if that depletion was for all of the right reasons, it significantly complicates any effort to trade for an ace. But it is not impossible. If the Yankees decide to flex their financial muscles and sign Manny Machado, it will make available precisely the type of talent needed to trade for a pitcher of Corey Kluber’s status. Let’s break this one down step-by-step.

Signing Machado

The case to sign Machado, of course, is a simple one to make. The 26-year-old should be one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history, boasting a career .282/.335/.487 (120 wRC+) line in just over 4,000 plate appearances. Like Bryce Harper (who they should also sign), he is just now entering his prime—meaning he should, in theory at least, be as good as he’ll ever be in the next four seasons or so.

That alone should put him on every team’s radar. The fact that he has posted a wRC+ greater than 130 in three of the last four seasons (with the fourth being a down year in 2017 that was clearly an outlier) ought to only sweeten the deal. In each of those seasons, he has hit at least 33 home runs. And last year, when he hit .297/.367/.548 (141 wRC+) with 37 home runs, was the most productive of his career.

Machado is about as good as it gets offensively. Defensively, the story is a bit murkier—but it doesn’t have to be. He switched positions from third to short in 2018 with mixed results. He struggled with the analytically-inept Baltimore Orioles but, if the data is to believed, he seemed to benefit from better positioning in Los Angeles. As a third baseman, though, Machado is as impressive a defender as I can remember seeing, an observation supported by most defensive metrics.

Even though he prefers shortstop (his natural position), Machado is reportedly willing to shift back to the hot corner if it meant playing in the Bronx. That is exactly what the Yankees should insist, and not just the Yanks are loaded with groundball pitchers and struggle with infield defense. Doing so would also allow the Yankees to slide Gleyber Torres to short until Didi Gregorius returns while slotting Machado in at third—opening up Miguel Andújar to be the centerpiece in a package for a top-shelf starting pitcher like Corey Kluber.

Saying Goodbye to Miggy Mantle

Don’t worry: you’ll be reunited at the ASG. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The case to trade Andújar, unlike signing Machado, is a bit more difficult to make. Miggy Mantle burst onto the scene in 2018, hitting .297/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) with 27 home runs in just over 600 plate appearances. His ability to make hard contact on almost any pitch and drive it is a rare offensive skill—and it is the reason why he hit so many balls for extra bases in 2018. Andújar quickly became one of my favorite Yanks, and it is hard to imagine what the 2018 squad would have been like without Andújar’s steady performance.

But that does not mean that it would not make sense to say goodbye. Andújar’s defense is a work in progress to put it kindly, and that was enough to have him be replaced in the 6^th (!) inning of the Wild Card Game this October for defensive reasons. That the team didn’t start or pinch hit him in the deciding game of the ALDS suggests that these worries may run deep in the front office—even if that decision, in my opinion, was an obvious tactical blunder.

Andújar will start 2019 at age 24—but Machado will begin the season at age 26. In fact, replacing Andújar with Machado is one of the few ways where the Yankees would get a significant defensive upgrade in the infield without sacrificing any offensive value, and Machado is an even better hitter than Andújar to boot.

Miggy’s trade value figures to be about as high as any player in the league—any 23 year-old who put up those offensive numbers at the league minimum salary will get teams interested. Even with his obvious defensive warts, another team may see a way to improve his defense at the hot corner, or perhaps they see a future for him in left field ala Ryan Braun or at first base. But in any case, Andújar is the type of talent who commands a large return.

Welcoming Corey Kluber

His number has some meaning. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

The pertinent question, now, is if a package based around Andújar would be enough to entice Cleveland to say goodbye to one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 32-year-old ace has won two of the last five AL Cy Youngs—finishing no lower than 3^rd in overall voting with one win in the last three years—and it is clear why. Since 2014, Kluber has posted a 2.85 ERA (152 ERA+) with a 2.84 FIP over 1091.1 innings. He has struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that with less than 2 walks per 9 innings across that stretch, with a WHIP just barely over 1. There are few signs of decline: he is just one of the best pitchers in the league.

If Cleveland will be cheap enough to ship him off in a trade while in the middle of their own (alleged) title run, then the Yankees should simply do everything they can to bring him to the Bronx—even if that means trading one of the league’s most exciting young pieces. Cleveland has a very good infield as it is, but they did just trade for Josh Donaldson last year, so they have been willing to add offense to that infield as recently as last summer.

On the Yankees side, the need is obvious. Adding Kluber as the final piece of a rotation that already includes Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia would position the Yankees to have a truly dominating staff in 2019 and 2020. To me, that’s easily worth the haul it would take to get him, which would likely be Andújar+. Always trade your prospects for dominating starting pitchers. Just look a bit to the north to see why.

Will it Happen?

To sum up, this plan involves shelling out a significant sum of money (likely more than $300 million) on Manny Machado and then turning around and trading one of their most exciting young (and thus cheapest) players. It still isn’t clear that the Yankees are willing to take on that much salary—though Kluber would be a steal at his current contract, especially compared to Patrick Corbin.

But what is clear is that this path is out there and isn’t that far-fetched. The Yankees have always had interest in Machado, and he’d take all of the sting away from losing Andújar. Meanwhile, the team would be in a position to get a starting pitching upgrade beyond any of our wildest dreams even eight weeks ago.

As Yankee Twitter’s Thought Leader and Official Friend of RAB™ put it the other day, a path like this is really the easiest and most straightforward way to create a roster that would likely be the World Series favorites on Opening Day. And if the Yankees spend as they can, they have the chance to add two prime-aged generational talents alongside one of the league’s best starting pitchers to their already loaded roster. It’s been a decade since the Yankees have won the championship, and now the only thing standing between them and their best shot since 2009 is Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to spend.

Thoughts after the Yankees miss out on Patrick Corbin

December 5, 2018 by Mike

The best free agent pitcher on the market won’t be signing with the Yankees. Patrick Corbin agreed to a massive six-year, $140M contract with the Nationals yesterday. It is the 13th largest pitching contract in history. The Yankees now have to look elsewhere to address their rotation. Let’s get to the thoughts.

1. Missing out on Corbin the pitcher really stinks — lefties who miss that many bats and get that many ground balls are hard to find! — but the principle of it all bothers me more than anything. Why are the Yankees getting outbid for anyone this offseason? Their window to win is never going to get more open than it is right now. All the prospects have arrived and assumed big league roles. There are no more Aaron Judges or Gleyber Torreses or Luis Severinos coming. Those dudes are in the Bronx already. Also, young veterans like James Paxton, Aaron Hicks, and (the injured) Didi Gregorius have blossomed. Veterans like Masahiro Tanaka, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman are still productive. And the Yankees reset their luxury tax rate this season! When are they going to spend if not now? Corbin’s not perfect, no one is, but he’s really good and he was the best available free agent starter. He was available for cash. Now the Yankees will settle for a lesser pitcher because they didn’t want to tack on a sixth year, a sixth year that very well might come after the window to win with this group has closed. How do you spend all offseason saying the priority is starting pitching, only to let the best available starter get away because you don’t want to pay him in what will be Aaron Judge’s age 32 season? There’s a lot of winning that has to be done between now and then.

2. So what do the Yankees do now? The easy answer is pivot to J.A. Happ. They’ve been connected to him throughout the offseason and of course Happ pitched quite well for the Yankees this past season, making eleven starts with a 2.69 ERA (4.21 FIP) in 63.2 innings. He stunk in his one postseason start but I’m not going to get bent out of shape about that. Happ’s solid. Getting him on a one-year contract would be ideal but it’ll probably take two years — giving Happ a third year covering his age 38 season would be rich after not wanting to sign Corbin for his age 35 season — given the market. Several other clubs are said to be in on him as well. Happ is fine but is just so underwhelming to me. He’s a just turned 36-year-old pitcher who throws a ton of fastballs and saw his fastball spin rate dip noticeably this year. That’s a pretty big deal! I just feel like, with a pitcher this age and this skill set, you’re hoping he maintains his 2018 performance (3.65 ERA and 3.98 FIP) and doesn’t slip any further. There’s not a whole lot of upside here. Meh. Bringing Happ back is the easy and most straightforward move but it doesn’t move the needle much for me at all. He’d be fine. That’s all. Fine.

3. Personally, with Corbin now in Washington, my preference for addressing the rotation would be circling back with the Indians about Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees and Indians did have a face-to-face meeting about those guys at the GM Meetings, remember. The Yankees used their best trade chip (Justus Sheffield) to get Paxton and that figures to make it awfully difficult, if not impossible, to nab Kluber or Carrasco. Would the outfield needy Indians have interest in Clint Frazier? How desperate are they to unload the $17M they owe Jason Kipnis next season? (Kipnis comes with an $8.75M luxury tax hit.) Is there a three-team trade scenario possible? Maybe something like this:

Yankees get: Kluber or Carrasco
Indians get: Mitch Haniger
Mariners get: Sonny Gray (they want him!) and prospects from the Yankees

Who knows whether something like that is possible. Point is, I don’t want the Yankees out there looking for someone who can simply fill the rotation spot capably a la Happ. There’s value in that, believe me I know, but I want a high-end starter with the potential to dominate every five days. The Yankees definitely have that in Severino, second half skid notwithstanding, and I believe they have that in Paxton as well. I want another guy like that and either Kluber or Carrasco would fit. Going hard after those dudes before settling for Happ is my preference. (Trevor Bauer is insufferable. Hard pass on him even though he’s really good.)

4. Does losing out on Corbin make the Yankees more interested in Yusei Kikuchi? Kikuchi is the youngest starter on the free agent market and, based on the data and scouting report, he is similar to Corbin as a left-handed slider machine. He also comes with a history of shoulder problems and no MLB track record, which makes him risky, and that risk will presumably be reflected in his contract. I can’t see Kikuchi approaching Tanaka’s posting system record seven-year, $155M contract. Something like five years and $50M would be more appropriate, I think, but crazy things can happen if there’s a bidding war. Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating window officially opened yesterday — I haven’t heard anything about him meeting with teams yet, though I imagine there are plans and a schedule in place — and reports indicate the Yankees want another starter before the Winter Meetings begin next week, and Kikuchi doesn’t match up with that timeline. The 27-year-old southpaw may be preferable to guys like Happ, Nathan Eovaldi, Charlie Morton, and Dallas Keuchel though. I dunno. Just a thought.

5. So, what are the odds Sonny Gray is better than whomever the Yankees bring in to plug the open rotation spot? Not good, I don’t think, but it’s not entirely impossible either. I mean, do you really have to try all that hard to envision Gray being more valuable than Happ or Eovaldi or Morton in 2019? Not really! Sonny is a goner. Brian Cashman and the Yankees have made that very clear this offseason — pivoting now and keeping Gray would be kinda awkward, eh? — and I think it’s for the best. I wanted it to work, I’ve been a pro-Sonny guy for years now, but it didn’t work and it’s best the Yankees cut their losses rather than hope something changes next year even though nothing’s changed the last year and a half. They get something in return in the trade and Gray gets a fresh start somewhere else. A trade is the best thing for both parties. Still, can’t you see Gray performing well with his next team, better than whomever the Yankees get to fill the rotation, and everyone complaining they gave up on Sonny?

6. The Yankees are going to sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, right? They really should sign them. Both of them. One would be okay but both are preferred. It’s not often you get the opportunity to add a 26-year-old mega-talent through free agency and it is basically never that you get an opportunity to add two 26-year-old mega-talents through free agency. The Yankees have the money to sign both even though they like to pretend they don’t. Machado at short until Gregorius returns makes too much sense. Harper? They’d figure out a way to make the crowded outfield work. These things always take care of themselves. (Easiest solution is moving Brett Gardner to the bench full-time.) The Yankees don’t have to worry about paying Corbin $20-something-million a year now, so they should redirect the savings to Machado and Harper. Heck, even if they signed Corbin, they should’ve still gone after Machado and Harper. I know I’m going all spoiled Yankees fan on here but damn yo, sign these dudes. Anytime the Yankees want to go back to acting like the Yankees is okay with me.

Report: Patrick Corbin agrees to six-year deal with Nationals

December 4, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees have missed out on the best free agent pitcher on the market. According to multiple reports, left-hander Patrick Corbin has agreed to a six-year contract worth $140M with the Nationals. Billy Witz says the Yankees offered five years and $100M, but wouldn’t tack on the sixth year, so to Washington he goes.

Last week Corbin went on a three-city recruiting tour through Philadelphia, Washington, and New York. As is often the case, far too much was made of his hometown (Clay, New York) and the fact he grew up a Yankees fan in a family full of Yankees fans. Money trumps signing with the team you rooted for as a kid, always and forever.

Had the Yankees landed Corbin, they would’ve added a third prime-aged elite bat-misser to the rotation alongside James Paxton and Luis Severino. Instead, they missed out on Corbin over a sixth year — a sixth year beyond the current Collective Bargaining Agreement — after spending the offseason saying they need rotation help. Cool cool.

With Corbin now off the board, I imagine the Yankees will now shift their focus to J.A. Happ, the other free agent starter they’ve been most connected to in recent weeks. They haven’t been connected to Dallas Keuchel at all and are reportedly not among the early suitors for Nathan Eovaldi. Maybe they circle back to Corey Kluber? We’ll see.

Along with another starting pitcher, the Yankees also need to add bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement this offseason, as well as general depth and fringe roster moves. Plus, you know, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are out there. The Yankees should sign them both but I’ll settle for one.

Hot Stove Rumors: Realmuto, Corbin, Miller, Greinke, Gray

December 3, 2018 by Mike

We’re now into December, traditionally the busiest month of the offseason, and next week the 2018 Winter Meetings begin in Las Vegas. I suspect the Yankees will be among the most active teams at the Winter Meetings. If not transactions-wise, then rumors-wise. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Cashman shoots down Realmuto rumor

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were among the teams with interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto but “resisted offering other top pieces in a package with (Gary) Sanchez.” Brian Cashman shot that rumor down. “False. Completely false. I saw that somebody had written that we had offered for Realmuto. That is completely false,” said Brian Cashman to George King over the weekend. “(Sanchez) is not for sale,” Cashman added during a YES Network interview (video link), which, to be fair, is what he’d say even if he were open to trading Sanchez.

When I saw the Realmuto rumor my first thought was the Marlins leaked it in an effort to drive up the price for other teams. It doesn’t really pass the sniff test otherwise. I mean, Sanchez and more for Realmuto? Selling low on Gary to buy high on (the very good) Realmuto is a hard pass for me. Sanchez is two years younger, under control two years longer, and almost certainly the more talented player even if he didn’t show it this past season. Their numbers through their age 25 seasons do not compare. Juicy rumor. Fortunately it seems to be nothing more than that.

Corbin meets with Yankees during recruiting trip

Last week Patrick Corbin went on a three-city recruiting trip through Philadelphia, Washington, and New York. The Yankees did the “photoshopped picture on the scoreboard” thing (here’s a photo) and, according to Ken Davidoff, Corbin toured Yankee Stadium and met with Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, Mike Harkey, and traveling analyst Zac Fieroh. He also ran into CC Sabathia, who was at the park for an offseason workout.

“I wouldn’t call it a recruiting effort as much as an educational effort, where (he’s) getting a chance to see the facilities from the home side (after being here as a visitor),” said Cashman during a recent YES Network interview (video link). “… He’ll get access to all aspects of what we’re about. The brand, our efforts, the people, with Aaron Boone and our coaches and myself and hopefully he’ll walk away getting a better feel for who we are.”

For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Nationals are “seriously focused” on Corbin and are believed to be willing to offer six years to get him. It seems Yu Darvish’s six-year, $126M contract with the Cubs is the benchmark here. Of course, a six-year deal is likely to include an opt-out along the way, which changes the calculus a bit. Well, either way, Corbin visited the Yankees last week, and reports indicate he’s looking to sign soon. I hereby dub this situation: “developing.”

Yankees “badly” want another starter this week

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees “badly” want another starter before the Winter Meetings. That jibes with what we heard yesterday. Jayson Stark says the Yankees haven’t ruled out adding two “high-profile” starters — Andy Martino again names Corbin and J.A. Happ as the likely targets — though that seems like a stretch. This strikes me as one of those general “we’re open to the idea” offseason rumors. Adding two starters would be kinda cool though.

As for the report that the Yankees “badly” want a starter before the Winter Meetings, I totally buy it. First and foremost, they want to get the rotation locked down, the sooner the better. Secondly, once the rotation is set, the Yankees will know exactly what resources they have available (trade chips, payroll space) to pursue bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The longer the search for a starter drags out, the more unpredictable it gets. (Wanting a starter this week presumably takes the Yankees out of the running for Yusei Kikuchi, whose 30-day posting period opens tomorrow and closes in early-January.)

Yankees have Miller on their radar

The Yankees have Andrew Miller on their radar, according to George King. King also reiterates the team’s interest in Adam Ottavino. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees requested Miller’s medical information, which is a) standard operation procedure (teams request the medical information of lots of players each winter), and b) not a mere formality given his knee trouble the last two years and shoulder trouble this year. Those medicals will be heavily scrutinized.

Miller, 33, pitched to a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 10.4% walks in 34 innings around the injuries this past season. Those numbers are far worse than what he did as a full-time reliever from 2014-17. The injuries stink but are not necessarily a dealbreaker. With good health, it’s not all that difficult to envision Miller turning in one or two more dominant seasons before things slip for good. The question is how much are the Yankees willing to bet on that? They supposedly want two relievers and a reunion with Miller could be in the cards.

Yankees on Greinke’s no-trade list

According to Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d), the Yankees are on Zack Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Like most no-trade lists, Greinke’s includes big market teams that would theoretically be willing to compensate him for waiving his no-trade cause (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies) and rebuilding teams he presumably doesn’t want to play for (Orioles, Tigers, Reds). For what it’s worth, Buchanan says there’s “no way” the Diamondbacks would attach Greinke to Paul Goldschmidt in an effort to unload his contract a la Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

Greinke, 35, posted a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with 23.7% strikeouts and 5.1% walks in 207.2 innings this past season — it was the tenth time in the last eleven seasons he threw at least 170 innings and the eighth time he threw at least 200 innings — so he’s still crazy good. He’s also owed $104.5M the next three years. It should noted the Yankees have steered clear of Greinke whenever he’s become available via trade or free agency. They’ve made it pretty clear they don’t think he’d mix well in New York. Oh well. Even if they were open to a trade, Greinke would have to approve it.

Eleven teams in on Gray

There are eleven teams in on Sonny Gray, reports Davidoff. Among them are the Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins. “I’ve had a lot of interesting dialogue, whether it’s for prospects, whether it’s for Major League our need for their need, whether it’s part of a complicated larger situation that involves prospects and Major Leaguers going both ways. So I think we’ve had a little bit of experience with all aspects of it,” said Cashman.

I honestly have no preference here. Normally I lean toward MLB ready players in return — the Yankees are a win now team, after all — but, if the best offer for Gray is a Single-A prospect(s), so be it. One way or the other, the inevitable Gray trade will help the Yankees at the MLB level. Either they’ll trade him for a big leaguer or they’ll trade him for a prospect(s) and unload his salary, which can then be used on a free agent. I’m not gonna lie, I’m kinda surprised Sonny is still a Yankee. I thought he’d be gone by now.

A Question of Two Lefties

December 2, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

The Yankees improved their rotation in the short term recently when they dealt for (former) Seattle lefty James Paxton. This came after re-signing CC Sabathia for a one year contract, joining the two with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and, uh, Sonny Gray. On its face, that isn’t a bad starting five and if they were to all pitch to their potential, it’d be fantastic. But that’s not the way the baseball world works.

Severino hit a road bump last year. Tanaka can be a bit up and down, despite my undying love for him. Sabathia is old now and can’t give more than 140-50 innings max. And Gray is likely to be shipped out any minute with the Winter Meetings looming. Given those realities, the Yankees still need to improve their rotation. The two players they’ve been connected with most frequently are free agent lefties Patrick Corbin, whom they met with this week, and JA Happ, whom they traded for last year. It appears an answer is on the way:

Yankeee Corbin/Happ SP situation appears on track to resolve itself within a week or less

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) December 1, 2018

So it appears that something is going to happen. What is that something, though? As a follow up to Martino’s tweet, friend of the blog–and former guest post author Randy Wilkins had a good question: Is this either/or or both? The implication I took from Martino’s tweet is that it’s an either/or situation and the Yankees will sign one of them, not both.

Both pitchers have their pluses, aside from being lefties. Happ is a solid veteran who’s fairly consistent and, given his age, will likely require a shorter term deal for not as much money. Corbin will be looking for a big pay day, but is younger and better than Happ.

Signing either one would be a right move, but I think signing Corbin is the right move, for the reasons Mike and Bobby have laid out. The only wrong move here would be to pass on both of these players with no substitute move. If they passed on one but then went ahead and traded for, say, Corey Kluber, that would be acceptable.

But what about signing both? Or signing one and making another trade for a top starter? That would give the Yankees a six man rotation once Gray is a goner. Given Sabathia’s age, Severino’s wall-hitting, Paxton’s injury history (and therefore lack of innings), and Tanaka’s ‘upbringing’ as a pitcher in Japan (though extra rest hasn’t always done him good in MLB), it might make a good deal of sense for the Yankees to go with six starters. In theory, everyone gets more rest and it might allow for more bullpen flexibility. The way baseball is going, starters aren’t throwing huge workloads anymore and there may be a hidden advantage in having good pitchers throw less often but at theoretically higher effectiveness.

I doubt the Yankees will go with a six man rotation, but at the very least, they need to bring in one of the two lefty starters out there. Corbin is the one it should be. He’s the better pitcher. He’s the one with prime years left. He’s the one that fits this rotation best now and in the near future. With him, the Yankees would have three lefty starters who can miss bats or induce soft contact and two righties with great stuff and dominant potential. Pairing that with their bullpen and their lineup would make this team a contender in every sense of the word.

Hot Stove Rumors: Diaz, Gray, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Goldy

November 28, 2018 by Mike

The rumors are starting to come in steadily now, and, in fact, player visits are going down. Patrick Corbin visited the Phillies earlier this week — they had the obligatory scoreboard photoshop ready to go — and tomorrow he’ll be in New York to visit the Yankees, according to Joel Sherman. For what it’s worth, Andy Martino hears Corbin is not expected to drag out his free agency. He could sign sooner rather than later. We’ll see. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees showing strong interest in Diaz

The Yankees were among the teams showing the strongest interest in Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, reports Joel Sherman. The Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox were also involved, though Sherman says everyone thus far has balked at taking on Robinson Cano to get Diaz. Presumably the more money you take on in Cano — he’s owed $120M the next five years — the less you have to give up in prospects to get Diaz. “What are those teams willing to part with in dollars to (get Diaz)?” a source said to Sherman.

Diaz, 25 in March, has four years of team control remaining and he is electric. This season he posted a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 44.3% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 73.1 innings. He is on the short list of the best relievers in the game. The Yankees are said to want two relievers and Diaz would certainly be an upgrade to the bullpen. With Justus Sheffield gone, I’m not sure the Yankees have the prospects to win a Diaz bidding war, not unless they put Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres on the table. Taking on Cano’s deal might be their only way to get Diaz.

Mariners wanted Gray in Paxton deal

Another Yankees-Mariners nugget. Been a lot of them these last few weeks. Anyway, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Mariners wanted Sonny Gray in addition to Sheffield in the James Paxton trade. The Yankees balked because enough other teams are showing interest in Gray that they believe they can maximize their return by trading him and Sheffield separately. Obviously the two sides got the Paxton deal done without Sonny.

The Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have all shown interest in Gray this offseason. We can now add the Mariners to that list. Wouldn’t it be something if the Yankees could build an Edwin Diaz trade package — or even a Jean Segura trade package — around Gray and, say, Estevan Florial? Plus a secondary piece or two? I expect the Yankees to get a decent return for Gray. Using him to get a true impact guy like Diaz (or Segura!) would be an A+ move in my book.

Giants open to trading Bumgarner

According to Jon Morosi, the Giants are willing to discuss trade scenarios involving lefty Madison Bumgarner. The Yankees were not mentioned as a suitor — the Braves and Phillies are said to have touched base with San Francisco — but I’m certain they’ll show interest. They want another starting pitcher, and remember, the Yankees were “in the hunt” for Bumgarner at the trade deadline. I am a tad skeptical the Giants would actually trade a franchise icon, but it would make sense given their current situation and the fact he’s a year away from free agency.

Jeff Sullivan wrote a post this week detailing Bumgarner’s decline. He’s still quite good — Bumgarner did have a 3.26 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 129.2 innings around a fluke finger injury (hit by a comebacker) this past season — but his velocity, swing-and-miss rate, and walk rate are trending down big time. I mean, look at this. Yikes. Bumgarner is still only 29, but he has a lot of innings on his arm, and he might be entering his Felix Hernandez decline phase. That said, there’s only one year and $12M on his contract, and the Yankees wouldn’t need him to be their ace or even their No. 2 starter. Depending on the asking price, rolling the dice on one year of Bumgarner could make an awful lot of sense.

Yankees not in on Syndergaard

Mets righty Noah Syndergaard is available but the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest, reports Martino. Maybe the front office change in Flushing makes it possible, but a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber? I can’t see it. For the Mets, trading Syndergaard to the Yankees would be an ownership decision, not a front office decision, and I can’t see the Wilpons signing off on that.

Hypothetically, I think Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers the Yankees would be willing to trade Andujar or Torres to acquire. Syndergaard has had some injury problems the last two years, but he has no-doubt ace upside, and those guys are extremely rare. Three years of control with that potential? Hard to pass that up, even if you have to give up an Andujar or Torres. You’ve gotta give something to get something, after all. Like I said though, I can’t see a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber going down.

Yankees not pursuing Goldschmidt

Yet another contradictory Paul Goldschmidt rumor. Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees are not pursuing the Diamondbacks’ first baseman at this time. They prefer a lefty bat and don’t see first base as a top priority right now. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees didn’t have interest in Goldschmidt, then, earlier this week, it was reported they pushed Sheffield in trade talks with Arizona. That was a secondhand report though. I’m inclined to believe the “they’re not really pursuing him” rumors.

It’s more interesting to me that the Yankees, at least according to Rosenthal, do not consider first base a top priority at the moment. Greg Bird stunk last year, and while Luke Voit was awesome, his track record is basically one month, and that month is September, when weird things happen. There are always cheap first base stopgap types available in the days leading up to Spring Training — what are the odds Lucas Duda signs before February? — so if the Yankees want some first base depth, they’ll be able to find it. Guys like Goldschmidt don’t become available often though.