Archive for Phil Hughes
Two relievers, one inning
Posted by: | CommentsLet me offer you a thinly-veiled comparison between two pitchers.
Pitcher A: 55 G, 55.2 IP, 1.78 ERA, 41 H, 9 BB, 61 K, .199/.233/.316
Pitcher B: 31 G, 39.1 IP, 1.14 ERA, 22 H, 10 BB, 48 K, .162/.218/.204
Bite your tongue if you picked Pitcher B over Pitcher A. Don’t tell Yankee fans that, in this admittedly tiny sample size, Phil Hughes‘ numbers look, if not a little bit better than Mariano Rivera’s, just as good as Mo’s. Just don’t.
News broke after the game last night that the Sandman is out with a sore left groin. While I’m holding my breath, Rivera isn’t too concerned. “That’s good, because it’s not my pushing leg,” Rivera said of his left leg. “You don’t want to have that kind of injury, especially in your legs, but it’s nothing we’re worried about. We will take care of it and work at it. Everything will be fine.”
The Yankees, enjoying their 7.5-game lead over Boston, plan to take it slow with Mo. We saw a glimpse of that strategy last night. With the Yanks holding to a two-run lead, Joe Girardi altered the pattern. Brian Bruney pitched some of the 8th, and the Phils joined him. Mr. Hughes stayed in for the final three outs of a blow out, and due to the intricacies of baseball’s rule book, he walked away with his second save of the season. It probably won’t be his last.
According to Girardi and Rivera, Mo first felt the pain in his leg while the Yanks were visiting Seattle a few weeks ago, but it had subsided. It came back on Tuesday night after Rivera appeared in his second straight game. It seems as though every year, Rivera goes through a slight malady. This one is a little late in the season for my tastes, but the Yanks are downplaying the injury. “I don’t even know if I would call it a strain,” Girardi said. “So you just kind of give him a few days and see if he can get rid of it. We’ll get it right, get him healthy and make sure it’s 100 percent.”
For the weekend as the Yanks head to Toronto, Rivera won’t pitch. “It’s a concern for you to run him out there,” Girardi said. “We don’t want to hurt him. We’ll probably give him a few days off and see if we can nip it.”
In his stead, then, the Yanks’ closer will be Phil Hughes. And you know what? I have no problem with that. As Hughes’ numbers show, he has been more than up for the task this year out of the pen. He has allowed one double, one triple and one home run while giving up 18 singles in 31 innings. His strike-out numbers are off the charts, and while he can’t quite match Mariano in the control department, that 4.80 K/BB ratio is right in line with Mo’s 2005 season.
So now, the Yankees will use the luxury of the lead to their advantage. The expanded rosters provide them with added bullpen depth, and the emergence of Phil Hughes as a force gives them, in effect, a second closer. He hasn’t wilted under pressure and wants the ball every day. Phil might run into a hiccup at some point this season, but after watching him mow down the Orioles in the 9th last night, I can sleep easy with the game in his hands.
Still, get well really soon, Mo. I want a seven-inning game come October.
The amazing, disappearing Phil Hughes
Posted by: | CommentsYou remember Phil Hughes, right? That great young pitcher the Yankees have decided is more valuable out of the bullpen? Well, have you seen him lately? It seems that the team, or at least manager Joe Girardi, has decided that the best way to utilize the kid’s talent is by using him as infrequently as possible. People used to trash Joe Torre for overusing his Circle of Trust™ relievers, but now we have the exact opposite going on; they aren’t being used enough.
A few weeks ago I mentioned that even though he was going to work in relief the rest of the season, Hughes would be generally okay in terms of his innings count, but since that post 22 days ago, Hughes has thrown a grand total of 5.1 innings, or just one every four days or so. Just to put this underuse in even more perspective, let’s bullet point some more stats:
- In the month of August (remember, today’s the 28th), Hughes has thrown exactly 8 IP.
- Here are the American League relievers that have thrown fewer innings than Hughes this month: Randy Choate (LOOGY), Edgar Gonzalez (Oakland’s mop-up guy), Jess Todd (called up a week into August), and Jason Jennings (DFA’d). That’s it. There’s roughly 155 relief pitchers in the American League at any given moment, and just four have been used less this month.
- Over the last 14 days Hughes has made two appearances, throwing 2.1 IP and a grand total of 37 pitches. Two appearances in the last two weeks. That would be fine if he were, you know, a starter.
- Over the last 16 days, he’s thrown 4.2 IP and 81 pitches.
- Every other pitcher on the Yankees staff has thrown more innings this month, including Chad Gaudin, who didn’t join the team until August 9th.
I understand that relief pitchers have become more and more specialized (damn you, Tony LaRussa, damn you to hell) and that the 8th inning has somehow morphed into the most important inning in the history of New York baseball, but this is getting ridiculous. We’ve seen the last two times out that Hughes was battling rust, yet the solution seems to be use him … less.
Please, more Phil Hughes. You’ll be amazed by what you see.
More praise for Phil Hughes
Posted by: | CommentsDave Allen at FanGraphs is the latest to pen a piece complimentary of Phil Hughes, who has emerged as a bullpen force for the best team in the land. Allen explains how the move to pen has allowed Hughes’ stuff to play, which is exactly what you’d expect to happen. After dealing with this for the last two years, it looks like we might end up having another starter-or-reliever debate on our hands next year. Thankfully, this is not debate to the guys calling the shots.
Overlooking the obvious in the hunt for a starter
Posted by: | CommentsFor four out of five days, the Yankees’ starters have been among the best in the game. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte have combined to go 41-22 this season with a collective 3.81 ERA. In 606.1 innings, the quartet has allowed 564 hits and 238 walks while striking out 497. The WHIP of 1.32 is a little on the high side, but the K/9 of 7.38 is stellar. This Big Four are primed for an October run.
The other guy — that much-maligned fifth starter — hasn’t been nearly as good. The Yankees have tried Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre in the role. Chad Gaudin will make his fifth starter debut later today. As a group, the Yanks’ fifth starters are 6-9 with a 7.79 ERA. In just over 100 innings — that’s 4.1 IP per start — these pitchers have given up 143 hits, and their WHIP clocks in at 1.83. It has been a constant struggle to find a fifth starter, to say the least.
Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal dropped a bullet point on the Yanks’ hunt for a fifth starter. He wrote:
The Yankees inquired about Reds right-handers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but backed off when the Reds said they would not include any money in a deal. While the Yankees remain active in their pursuit of a starter, they likely will stand pat and await the benefit of the roster expansions on Sept. 1.
We’ve assessed both Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo when the Yanks nearly acquired him prior to the July 31st trade deadline. There is no need to get into their pluses and overwhelming minuses right now.
Instead, I’d like to ask yet again why the Yankees are continuing to overlook the most obvious answer to their fifth starter problems: Phil Hughes.
Earlier this year, the Yankees tried Phil Hughes in the rotation. He went 3-2 with a 5.45 ERA. In 34.6 innings, he allowed 37 hits and struck out 31. He had one awful start against the Orioles and one very good start. His other five starts were inconsistent, exactly what you would expect from a young starter with great stuff but not enough Major League experience. Prior to Chien-Ming Wang’s comeback, Hughes had seemed to turn a corner, and the Yankees kept him around.
At first, Hughes shadowed Wang, and he really seemed to excel out of the pen. He was throwing harder and was attacking the zone more than he had as a starter. With the Bridge to Mariano unsettled, the Yankees fell in love with Phil Hughes in the 8th inning. He was as lights out as Joba was in 2007, and all of a sudden, Phil Hughes the starter morphed into Phil Hughes the lockdown reliever.
Since the move to the bullpen, Hughes’ innings totals have been meager. He threw just 13 innings in June and 14 innings in July. This month — 18 days through August — Hughes has thrown just 5.2 innings. For comparison’s sake, Sergio Mitre has thrown 14.2 unspectacular innings this month. The 8th inning does not matter more.
On the season, between the Majors and Minors, Hughes has thrown just 87.1 innings, and at this rate with his current usage patterns, he won’t reach more than 105-110 in the regular season. Next year, as a starter, Hughes will be limited to around 150-160 innings. If this sounds like Joba Chamberlain, well, that’s because it is.
With their win last night, the Yankees are 75-45. They have a seven-game lead with 42 left to play, and while it ain’t over ’til it’s over, it’s getting awfully close. The Yanks could stretch Phil Hughes out, give him a few starts, build up his innings and then move him back into the bullpen for the playoffs. The future would thank them, and it would give the Yankees a better solution to the fifth — and fourth — starter issue than Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin will.
Quick musings on Hughes’ inning
Posted by: | CommentsEarlier today in an appearance on Mike Francesa’s show, Yanks GM Brian Cashman all but admitted that Phil Hughes will not be moved back into the rotation this year. I echo what Joe said to me earlier about this: “I’m glad I came to grips with that earlier in the year.” In general, there are two problems with leaving Hughes in the bullpen: 1) the team needs another starter, and 2) he’ll be stuck on an innings limit again next year. The first part is most certainly true, there’s not denying that. But what about those innings?
Hughes has thrown 84.1 IP this year between the majors and minors. As a full-time reliever in the months of June and July, Hughes threw 13 and 14.2 IP, respectively. If we assume he’ll work 14 innings in both August and September, that would put him at 112.1 IP on the season, his most since throwing a career high 146 IP in 2006 and 42.2 IP more than he threw last year. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA adjusted standings say the Yanks have a better than 93% of chance of making the postseason, but even if we assume zero playoff innings for Hughes and he finishes the season in that 110-120 IP range, he’d be good for 150 innings or so next year. That’s … not terrible. Not ideal, but better than I thought it would be.
What price Halladay
Posted by: | CommentsSunday morning is a great time for unfettered discussion. The TV stations are filled with talking heads arguing health care, Supreme Court confirmation hearings and economic reform. The Sunday newspaper and crossword puzzle can fill the hours we must pass until baseball action resumes.
But that does not of course mean we have nothing of our own to debate or discuss. With the non-waiver trade deadline a scant five days away, news and rumors — some less founded than others — fill the airwaves. While the Yankees have not made a major splash yet and haven’t been subject of many legitimate rumors, the names are out there — the Phil Hugheses, the Joba Chamberlains, the Jesus Monteros. The GMs with something to offer know what the price tag should and could be.
On Saturday, a flurry of Yankee-related rumors arrived late in the day, long after the Yanks’ game against Oakland and the team’s eight-game winning streak came to an end. The first comes to us from a Peter Gammons blog post. It’s a buyer’s market, says Gammons as he pontificates about teams that want to hold onto their young players. Of the Yankees and Roy Halladay, he writes:
Yankees GM Brian Cashman argues that he doesn’t overvalue prospects, which is why he has Phil Hughes pitching like the American League’s best eighth-inning reliever, Melky Cabrera in center, Nick Swisher (obtained for Jeffrey Marquez, another pitcher in the package the Twins would’ve required for Johan Santana) in right and CC Sabathia on the mound, all in lieu of Santana.
When the Yankees approached Toronto about Halladay, the price was Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. Not happening.
Of course it’s not happening. Roy Halladay isn’t worth three of the Yanks’ top young players. That doesn’t make an ounce of sense. The Yankees need pitching depth, but they need depth without surrendering depth. Sending out one pitcher for another doesn’t solve the problem.
Another rumor hit the Twitter world some time around 11 p.m. This one came from Jon Heyman whose track record this July has been spotty to say the least. He writes: “Yankees might – repeat, might – consider giving up Joba for Halladay. but wont entertain request of Joba & Hughes.” Joba, by the way, has thrown 13.2 innings since the All Star Break and has given up two earned runs on five hits and 14 strike outs.
This one is more ludicrous than the Blue Jays’ asking price for Halladay. The team just isn’t going to give up Chamberlain for Roy Halladay. While it might solve a short-term depth problem, no General Manager would give up that youth for two months of limitless innings. It is also worth pointing out that Joba’s starting career — 31 starts, 9-3 record, 3.43 ERA and 166 strike outs in 168.1 innings pitched — is off to a far better start than Halladay’s. Through Roy’s age 23 season, he was 10-12 as a starter with a 6.23 ERA and 116 strike outs in 179 IP.
And so it goes on. The rumors rise and fall, and we wait for something to happen as the clock ticks onward toward Friday.
Rumor of the Day: What the Indians want
Posted by: | CommentsWhile we generally shy away from posting the endless speculation about potential trade requests, this one is too good to pass up. According to Jon Heyman via Twitter, the Yankees asked the Indians about Cliff Lee, and Cleveland expressed its desire for Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain and more. As Chris at iYankees said, a trade involving either of those two would defeat the purpose of acquiring a replacement for Chien-Ming Wang. That Mark Shapiro, he’s quite the joker.
Cashman talks, but not much, about plans for Joba
Posted by: | CommentsBrian Cashman made one thing clear during his pregame talk yesterday: There is a plan in place for Joba Chamberlain. What exactly that plan entails he wouldn’t say. And why would he? The team’s plans for the 23-year-old righty haven’t changed since Spring Training, and they will not change based on the highs and lows an inexperienced pitcher will inevitably face.
There’s been no shortage of speculation on what the team will do with Joba, now at 95.2 innings, once he nears his limit. Yet no one knows exactly what the Yankees will do. That’s fine. He’ll start until he reaches some predetermined point, and the Yankees will do what they planned to do with him. That won’t stop us from speculating, though.
Before commenting on what they could do, let’s take a look at what Cashman actually said. This comes right from PeteAbe’s pregame audio. Thanks to the sound quality I had to listen three or four times for accuracy. Also, because it sounded like Cashman actually divulged some information.
When asked if the plan is to have Joba in the rotation through the end of the season, Cashman responded “Yes.” He then added, “Well, it depends on how he gets used.” Well, if he’s a starter he’s only going to get used one way. More importantly, when asked if there’s a chance Joba would be shut down at any point, Cashman said no.
From this, I can only infer that Cash misheard the question as, “Will Joba be pitching for the rest of the season?” since he added the “how he gets used” part. Since he won’t be shut down, I can only imagine this means that he’ll return to the bullpen when he hits a certain milestone. While I know some are against this plan and would rather see Joba hit his limit and then shut it down, I have no problem with this plan.
Young pitchers can learn a lot by pitching out of the bullpen. Phil Hughes is a prime example. He struggled as a starter, though we saw flashes of brilliance. Now that he’s in the bullpen he’s attacking hitters and letting loose with his fastball. The hope is that when he returns to the starting rotation, whether that be later this year or in 2010, he takes those lessons with him.
Same with Joba. He clearly has plenty to work on. At times he looks brilliant, and at times he looks lost. He’s learning plenty in the rotation, but it’s best for him to stay with the team throughout the season, work through a whole 162-game schedule, and continue learning his lessons in the bullpen.
What happens to Joba’s rotation spot once he moves to the bullpen? For all we know, the Yankees could acquire a starter between now and then, but I think Phil Hughes is as obvious an answer as any. Once Joba’s nearing the end of the starter portion of his season, Hughes could shadow him, stretching himself out. Hopefully it would take only two starts (because it’s really a waste of a roster spot), and then the transition is complete. Joba is in the pen, Hughes is in the rotation.
This isn’t necessarily what the Yankees will do, but based on Cashman’s comments yesterday, it sounds like a strong possibility. It would also make sense. The Yankees have two young pitchers whose innings need managing. The Hughes-Joba swap seems to work for both parties.
Pondering Wang’s — and the Yanks’ — future
Posted by: | CommentsA couple of hours before the Yanks and Orioles squared off last night, the Yankees announced a setback for Chien-Ming Wang. Their erstwhile ace, on the DL since July 4 with a strained right shoulder, had experienced some bicep pain during a throwing session, and the Yanks no longer sound certain they will get any contribution from Wang this season.
“It’s not exactly the news that I wanted,” Joe Girardi said to reporters. “We were hoping two weeks’ rest would be enough for him to get on a throwing program. Does it mean he won’t pitch this year? No, I’m not saying that. But obviously, it’s not going to be as soon as we thought.”
During the pre-game news conference, Girardi hinted that Wang’s rotator cuff may be suffering as part of this amorphous shoulder strain. “I think anytime you’re dealing with cuff issues or shoulder tendinitis or whatever you want to describe it as, there is concern,” Girardi said. “Whatever he is able to do, we would love to have. But I think anytime someone is injured and you’re not sure when they’re exactly going to be back, you can’t count on them.”
For the Yankees, these apparent injuries justify what had been a controversial off-season tactic. For the last few seasons, the Yankees have opted not to sign Wang to a long-term contract. Rather, they have gone year-to-year with the arbitration-eligible pitcher. They did so because Wang’s peripherals did not necessarily predict future success and because the pitcher, as we’ve seen, is volatile. If Wang is out for the rest of the year, he will have gone 1-6 with a 9.34 ERA over just 42 innings since June 15, 2008.
Meanwhile, the Yanks have some other pitching questions to resolve. In writing about Wang today in The Times, Tyler Kepner explores how the Yanks’ rotation depth is suffering with Wang out:
Wang had pitched decently in his last few starts, and Girardi acknowledged that the latest setback was another reason to be concerned about rotation depth. After Mitre, the Yankees’ next option in the minors is Kei Igawa, who has repeatedly failed in the majors.
Relievers Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves are natural starters, but Hughes has become so entrenched in short relief that Girardi said he could throw no more than 40 pitches now. Adding 15 pitches an outing, it would take Hughes four appearances before he could throw 100 pitches.
That is not an easy or appealing option, especially because Hughes has been invaluable in the bullpen. Entering Monday, he had a streak of 19 scoreless innings, the longest by a Yankee since Mariano Rivera’s 23-inning streak in 2005, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
It’s far too early to write off Sergio Mitre. He hasn’t even thrown a pitch as a member of the New York Yankees, but my expectations aren’t high. Beyond Mitre, Kepner’s mention of Igawa is enough to make me want to curl up in a corner in the fetal position.
The answer though is staring the Yanks in the face. Sure, Phil Hughes’ 19 scoreless innings of the pen is an impressive number, but good pitchers make for great relievers. If the Yanks truly expect nothing from Chien-Ming Wang right now, the team would be far better off moving Hughes into the rotation. He may be on a pitch count, but it’s easy to stretch him.
First, the Yanks can have him duplicate what he did on Friday. That evening, he threw 40 pitches out of the pen. The Yanks could then have him make a 65-pitch start as they were willing to do with Alfredo Aceves prior to the All Star break. The 80-pitch outing leaves the bullpen in limbo, but with Brett Tomko still on the active roster and Mark Melancon ready to hop on the Scranton shuttle, the Yankees have some flexibility. That would do it.
As for the late-inning relief efforts, the Yankees still have Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves ready, willing, and able to get the job done. It’s very tempting to keep Hughes in the late innings as a band-aid, but the Yankees need starters. Maybe Sergio Mitre can cut it, but Phil Hughes is the future while Mitre is a place-holder for Wang.
If Wang is out, if the Yanks are truly short in the rotation, it’s time to stretch out Hughes. He has the experience and the confidence. Now, all he needs is the work and the innings.
