Aaron Judge and Luis Severino make BP’s midseason top 50 prospects list


Earlier today, the crew at Baseball Prospectus published their updated list of the top 50 prospects in baseball (subs. req’d). Dodgers SS Corey Seager has taken over as the top prospect in baseball following all the recent promotions, and he is followed by Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito and Dodgers LHP Julio Urias in the top three.

The Yankees have two players in the top 50. Two in the top 30, really. OF Aaron Judge ranks 13th while RHP Luis Severino ranks 28th. The write-up notes Judge has “shown an advanced feel for hitting, and despite his long limbs he gets through the zone quickly, spraying line drives all over the field” while adding he’s “also a quality defender.”

As for Severino, the write-up says there is “no denying that Severino has the stuff to pitch in a major-league rotation, so it comes down to whether you believe he has the frame and mechanics to stick long-term … He’s a big-league difference maker even if he’s not a starter, with stuff that will work in the back end of a bullpen.”

In a separate piece (subs. req’d), SS Jorge Mateo was listed among a dozen players who just missed the top 50. “Mateo was mentioned a number of times in our discussions and for good reason given what he’s doing in the South Atlantic League as an 20-year-old this season,” said the write-up. Mateo still leads baseball with 53 steals, nine more than anyone else.

Both Judge and Severino made pretty big jumps up the list — they ranked 49th and 51st in BP’s top 101 list coming into the season, respectively. Mateo was not on any top 100 lists before the season but seemed like a prime candidate to make the jump this year.

Aaron Judge ranks 16th on Keith Law’s updated top 25 prospects list


Earlier today, Keith Law published his updated list of the 25 best prospects in the minors (subs. req’d). With Cubs 3B Kris Bryant now in MLB, Astros SS Carlos Correa takes over as the number one prospect in baseball. Dodgers SS Corey Seager, Twins OF Byron Buxton, Phillies SS J.P. Crawford, and Indians SS Francisco Lindor round out the top five.

The Yankees have one player in Law’s updated top 25: OF Aaron Judge ranked 16th, up from 23rd in Law’s preseason top 100. Here’s the blurb on Judge:

Judge is prone to strikeouts — he had 11 in a recent four-game stretch — but he also is doing so much damage when he does make contact that he projects as an average regular even if he doesn’t improve his contact rate. He’s also an above-average to plus defender in right. Most scouts I’ve talked to share my belief that he’ll continue to close some of the gaps in his plate coverage, especially if he backs off the plate a little.

The “especially if he backs off the plate a little” comment made me chuckle because here’s where Judge was standing in the batter’s box in Spring Training:

Aaron Judge

If he moves back any further he’ll be in the on-deck circle.

Anyway, Judge, who turned 23 late last month, is hitting .288/.356/.469 (134 wRC+) with nine doubles and six homers in 180 plate appearances for Double-A Trenton this year. He hit .283/.411/.442 (149 wRC+) with nine doubles and eight homers in 285 plate appearances for High-A Tampa in the second half last year, so his raw power is starting to show up in games.

Despite a recent slump — Judge is 2-for-20 (.100) with 14 strikeouts (!) in his last five games — Judge has a 26.1% strikeout rate this year, which isn’t too far off from the 23.3% strikeout rate he had with Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa last year. (He had a 21.4 K% before this recent five-game slide.) Given his size and his long arms, Judge is always going to be prone to strikeouts, but when he makes contact, he does major damage.

The Yankees don’t have any other top 25 caliber prospects in the system right now. I’m not even sure they have another top 50 caliber prospect either. RHP Luis Severino didn’t make Law’s preseason top 100 but that was an outlier — Severino was on every other top 100 list out there. 1B Greg Bird was 86th on Law’s preseason list but he’s been just okay (122 wRC+) and hurt (shoulder) with Double-A Trenton this year. No surprise he didn’t shoot up the list.

Yanks have 18th best farm system in Baseball America’s organizational rankings


Early last week, Baseball America released their annual farm system rankings, which are predictably topped by the Kris Bryant-led Cubs. The Red Sox and Dodgers round out the top three while the Angels, Orioles, and Tigers claim the bottom three spots. The farm rankings and write-ups are free. You don’t need a subscription.

The Yankees are ranked 18th overall, which, believe it or not, is actually down from 13th last year, when the Yankees had that miserable 2013 season. That’s because Baseball America considered Masahiro Tanaka a prospect last year — he was fourth on their 2014 top 100 prospects list — and he’s graduated to the big leagues. I guess the massive international spending spree doesn’t make up to Tanaka’s graduation. Anyway, here’s the blurb on New York’s farm system:

How They Got Here: The Yankees got breakout seasons from Luis Severino and Aaron Judge, who are opposites physically. However, the Yankees have failed to develop in-house young replacements for an aging roster that has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. New York’s unprecedented July 2 international spending ($17.3 million) brought in impressive depth, obviously with risk that is ameliorated by the depth.

High-Ceiling Sleeper: The system is full of them, but a spring candidate who was emerging was 21-year-old Domingo Acevedo, a big-bodied Dominican signee who is starting to coordinate the long levers in his 6-foot-7, (listed) 190-pound frame. His fastball was sitting in the 94-96 mph range during the spring and reaching higher, and it was still just March. He’s headed for his full-season debut.

2015 Rookies: A concussion this spring interrupted 2B Jose Pirela’s chase for a utility role or to compete with Rob Refsnyder for the second-base job. LHP Chasen Shreve and RHP Bryan Mitchell competed for staff roles in spring training, with Mitchell headed back to the minors to start the year in a rotation role.

Acevedo continues to get a lot of love this spring. A strong year with Low-A Charleston should shoot him up prospects lists. Also, I’m surprised Jacob Lindgren was not mentioned as a top 2015 rookie in the write-up, but whatever. We know he’ll be up at some point and that’s all that matters.

Baseball America is the high man on the Yankees’ farm system this spring, though not really. Keith Law had them 20th and Baseball Prospectus had them 21st, and there’s not really much of a difference between 18th and 21st. It’s a matter of personal preference at that level, not quality or quantity of talent. As I’ve been saying all winter, the farm system figures to take a big step forward this summer thanks to the international talent haul. That’s a lot of talent added at once.

Luis Severino, Aaron Judge top MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list

Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)

As part of their look at the best minor league prospects in each organization, the crew at MLB.com published their list of the top 30 Yankees prospects earlier this week. Jim Callis also compiled some notes and scouting grades in a supplemental piece. As always, MLB.com’s info — the list, scouting reports, video, etc. — is all free. It’s great.

Predictably, RHP Luis Severino and OF Aaron Judge claim the top two spots, in that order. Severino is No. 1 on MLB.com’s and Baseball America’s lists while Judge is atop Keith Law’s, Baseball Prospectus’, and my top Yankees prospects lists. I guess Judge wins. SS Jorge Mateo, 1B Greg Bird, and 2B Rob Refsnyder round out the top five on MLB.com’s list.

You can click through to see the full top 30 for yourself. MLB.com included two of last year’s international signings and ranked them pretty highly as well — OF Juan DeLeon and SS Dermis Garcia ranks 15th and 16th, respectively. They also ranked four other players who didn’t make my top 30: RHP Rookie Davis (No. 24), UTIL Jose Pirela (No. 25), 2B Gosuke Katoh (No. 28), and RHP Domingo Acevedo (No. 30).

The 21-year-old Acevedo was one of my five prospects to watch heading into the 2014 season and the MLB.com scouting report is pretty glowing:

In his limited game action, Acevedo hit 100 mph and worked at 95-97 mph. He also has an advanced changeup and some feel for spinning the ball, though he’s still trying to find a comfortable grip for his slider. His command is work in progress, though he does a decent job of throwing strikes.

Between his velocity and his size — he’s 6-foot-7 and carries maybe 50 pounds more than his listed 190 — Acevedo presents an extremely intimidating figure on the mound. He’ll have frontline starter stuff if he can develop a good breaking ball, and he’s still a potential closer if he doesn’t.

Acevedo is older than most international prospects — he signed as an 18-year-old in October 2012 — but they don’t check IDs on the mound. If he continues to show big stuff and gets people out, the Yankees won’t care if he makes his MLB debut at 23 or 26. The 2015 season will be an important one when it comes to determining if Acevedo is one of the team’s top prospects going forward or just a tease.

MLB.com’s list essentially wraps up prospect ranking season. The Yankees have a middle of the road farm system that is on the rise thanks mostly to last summer’s international spending spree. Severino and Judge are high-end prospects while others like Bird and Jacob Lindgren look like high-probability big leaguers. The Yankees focused on youth this winter and that means we should expect to see a few of these guys get an opportunity at the MLB level in the next year or two. That’s exciting.

Severino and Judge crack Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list

Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)
Severino and Judge, yet again. (Presswire)

On Thursday night, Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list during a live MLB Network broadcast. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claimed the top spot and was followed in order by Twins OF Byron Buxton, Cubs SS Addison Russell, Astros SS Carlos Correa, and Dodgers SS Corey Seager. The full top 100 can be seen right here.

The Yankees landed two players in the top 100 and they’re two players you expect: RHP Luis Severino ranks 35th and OF Aaron Judge ranks 53rd. Interestingly enough, Baseball America ranked Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada tenth during the television broadcast, but he isn’t on their online list. I can’t remember them ever ranking an unsigned player before.

Anyway, in the subscriber-only report, Baseball America gave Severino a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) for both his fastball and changeup. He received a 60 for his control and a 50 for his slider. (50 is average, 60 is above-average, 70 is well-above-average.) Judge received a 70 for power, a 55 for his arm, and 50s for his hit tool, speed, and defense. Five average or better tools is really, really good.

Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com ranked Judge as the 23rd, 49th, and 68th best prospect in baseball, respectively. Those three plus Baseball America’s ranking average out to 48th overall. Severino was ranked 23rd by MLB.com and 51st by Baseball Prospectus. (He didn’t make Law’s.) Those two rankings plus Baseball America’s average out to 36th overall. Two consensus top 50 prospects ain’t bad at all.

Update: In a supplemental piece, J.J. Cooper said 1B Greg Bird didn’t miss the top 100 by much.

2015 Preseason Not Top 30 Prospects

Palma. (MiLB.com)
Palma. (MiLB.com)

Tomorrow is a pretty big day in Yankeeland. Pitchers and catchers are set to officially report to Spring Training, that’s always fun, plus Joe Girardi will hold his annual start of camp press conference. He’s got a new look roster and a returning Alex Rodriguez to discuss. Tomorrow is also RAB’s eighth birthday, and that’s sorta neat.

But, most importantly, tomorrow I will post my annual Top 30 Prospects List, which is both an awful lot of work and something I enjoy compiling each year. Before we get to the Top 30 though, we have to look at the Not Top 30 Prospects. These are five players on the outside of this year’s Top 30 who I think have a chance to make the jump into next year’s Top 30.

Only one of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects climbed into the actual Top 30 this year, and I’ve learned over the years that one out of five ain’t all that bad when it comes to this stuff. As a reminder, these are not prospects 31-35. They’re just five guys listed alphabetically who I think could be Top 30 caliber prospects after another season of development. Got it? Good. Let’s get to it.

RHP Simon De La Rosa
Signed out the Dominican Republic for only $50,000 back in October 2012, De La Rosa spent 2013 in the Dominican Summer League and last year in the rookie Gulf Coast League, where he had a 4.43 ERA (3.81 FIP) with 28.0 K% and 13.2 BB% in 42.2 innings. De La Rosa is a big and lanky kid at 6-foot-3 and 185 lbs., and he already sports three pitches in his low-to-mid-90s heater, tight curveball, and promising changeup. The curveball is his money pitch. As the walk rate suggests, he needs to work on his location. De La Rosa is older than the typical international prospect in rookie ball — he turns 22 in mid-May — but he has bat-missing stuff and just needs to improve his control more than anything. Obviously that’s easier said than done. I think De La Rosa could make the jump to start 2015 with Low-A Charleston. If not, Extended Spring Training and Short Season Staten Island await.

Foley. (Robert Pimpsner)
Foley. (Robert Pimpsner)

RHP Jordan Foley
Foley, 21, was New York’s fifth round pick out of Central Michigan in last summer’s draft ($317,500 bonus). He pitched to a 4.10 ERA (3.26 FIP) with 23.1 K% and 9.4 BB% in 37.1 innings after turning pro last summer, most with Staten Island. Foley is an arm strength guy, sitting in the low-90s and touching 96-97 as a starter. He’ll sit closer to that 96-97 mph range when working out of the bullpen. His second pitch is a low-80s splitter, and he also throws an okay mid-80s slider. Foley, who is listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 lbs., has a pretty substantial head whack in his follow through (video) and it hurts his command. Between the spotty command and the head violence, many expect Foley to wind up in the bullpen long-term. I like him better there too. The Yankees will probably give him a chance to start this coming season if only to accumulate innings. If they stick him in the bullpen full-time, he could be an MLB option as soon as the second half of 2016. Low-A Charleston is in the cards this coming season.

OF Dustin Fowler
The Yankees grabbed Fowler in the 18th round of the 2013 draft and got him to turn pro with an above-slot $278,000 bonus. He was a multi-sport guy in high school, playing football and wrestling in addition to playing baseball. Fowler is a pure tools guy who has shown quite a bit of improvement since signing, and his .257/.292/.459 (104 wRC+) batting line with nine homers, 19.5 K%, and 4.8 BB% in 66 games with the River Dogs last year sums up his game well. He has power — Fowler is a lefty swinger listed at 6-foot-0 and 185 lbs. — but doesn’t know the strike zone well and can be over-aggressive. His above-average speed doesn’t show up in the stolen base total (three in five attempts) but he can run. Fowler’s a project. He has a lot of physical ability and just needs to learn how to turn it into baseball tools. Chances are he will return to Low-A Charleston to begin the 2015 season.

Montgomery. (Post and Courier)
Montgomery. (Post and Courier)

LHP Jordan Montgomery
The 22-year-old Montgomery spent three years in South Carolina’s rotation and has a track record of performing well against high-caliber college competition. The Yankees signed him for $424,000 as their fourth round pick last season and Montgomery put up a 3.79 ERA (2.30 FIP) with 25.3 K% and 7.6 BB% in only 19 innings after turning pro. Montgomery has the prototypical workhorse frame at 6-foot-4 and 225 lbs., and he’s a four-pitch guy with an 89-92 mph fastball, a low-80s changeup, a slow upper-70s curveball, and a show-me cutter I’m sure the Yankees will work to improve. They love their cutters. Montgomery’s stuff all plays up because he locates well and has very good feel for his craft. It’s a boring profile but there’s potential here. He’s cut from the David Phelps/Adam Warren cloth. After three years in the SEC, Montgomery figures to start next year with High-A Tampa.

OF Alex Palma
Palma signed out of Venezuela for $800,000 in July 2012 and played in the GCL last year after spending 2013 in the Dominican Summer League. He performed very well last summer, hitting .305/.318/.451 (118 wRC+) with four homers, nine steals, 6.8 K%, and 1.4 BB% in 220 plate appearances. The strikeout and walk rates are evidence of how easily he makes contact, but he’s not a slash hitter. Palma is listed at 6-foot-0 and 201 lbs. and he has raw power, mostly to the pull side as a right-handed hitter. He’s a good athlete and a sound defensive outfielder with a strong arm who fits best in right field. Palma is close to maxed out physically even though he is only 19, but his raw tools right now are plenty good enough. As soon as he learns he doesn’t have to swing at a pitch just because he can reach it, Palma should rocket up prospects lists. I expect him to start the season in Extended Spring Training before joining either Staten Island or the organization’s new rookie ball affiliate in Pulaski.

Yankees land seven players on FanGraphs’ top 200 prospects list

Bird. (Presswire)
Bird. (Presswire)

Over at FanGraphs yesterday, Kiley McDaniel posted his list of the top 200 — not the top 100, the top 200 (!) — prospects in baseball heading into the 2015 season. Cubs 3B Kris Bryant claims the top spot and is followed by Twins OF Byron Buxton and Cubs SS Addison Russell in the top three. At this point, it’s clear Bryant is the consensus top prospect in baseball with Buxton, last year’s No. 1, right behind him.

The Yankees landed seven players in the top 200. Here’s the list with a short quote from McDaniel’s write-up:

  • RHP Luis Severino (No. 26): “He’s quickly improved and developed starter traits, but on certain days the stuff, command and delivery may all look more like a reliever.”
  • OF Aaron Judge (No. 58): “He’ll be 23 in Double-A next year and that will give us a better idea of if he’s a solid everyday guy or a potential star, but there’s clearly more here than people were expecting.”
  • LHP Jacob Lindgren (No. 100): “(He’s) now knocking on the door of the big leagues with closer level stuff and just enough of the feel from his starter days to spot his hellacious slider where he wants it.”
  • SS Jorge Mateo (No. 102): “(He) has top-of-the-scale 80 speed, has the tools to stick at shortstop, has surprising pop and was hanging with pitches three or four years older than him.”
  • 1B Greg Bird (No. 120): “Bird has plus power and good plate discipline, with some comparing him to a non-injury-prone Nick Johnson.”
  • LHP Ian Clarkin (No. 137): “His velocity has settled near the high end of where it was pre-draft and his above average to plus curveball is still the separator, with his changeup and command making good progress.”

2B Rob Refsnyder is the seventh prospect, but the bottom 58 players of the top 200 are not ranked and are instead listed as honorable mentions, basically. It’s kinda interesting McDaniel ranked Bird as the team’s third best prospect behind Severino and Lindgren last month, but now he’s fifth behind Severino, Judge, Lindgren, and Mateo. Eh, whatever.

I’m biased, so what the hell do I know, but I find it very hard to believe there are 200 prospects in the minors right now better than C Gary Sanchez. I get people are down on him, but a catcher with his arm and that much offensive upside is a pretty valuable prospect. Especially when they’ve had success at Double-A before their 22nd birthday. Not top 100? Okay. But not top 200? C’mon now.