Rob Refsnyder ranks ninth among MLB.com’s top second base prospects

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

MLB.com’s look at the top ten prospects at each position continued yesterday with second base. Red Sox 2B Yoan Moncada predictably topped the list, and was followed by Reds IF Jose Peraza and Cubs 2B Ian Happ in the top three. Rob Refsnyder placed ninth on the top ten list. MLB.com’s scouting reports are free, as always.

“An outfielder at Arizona, Refsnyder’s transition to second base has been slow and steady. It’s always encouraging when a solid hitter in the Minors performs well in his big league debut, and that’s exactly what Refsnyder did in 2015,” said the write-up. Here’s a piece of their latest scouting report:

He recognizes pitches and manages the strike zone better than most players. Refsnyder’s compact right-handed stroke yields line drives to all fields and he projects to top out at 12-15 homers per season … While Refsnyder has improved at second base, he’s not a smooth defender and likely won’t ever be more than adequate there. He’s not suited for the left side of the infield, though he has the average speed and arm strength to get the job done on an outfield corner.

Like it or not, the Yankees have made it pretty clear they’re not comfortable with Refsnyder playing a full-time role at this point in time. They didn’t give him much of a look despite Stephen Drew‘s long stretches of nothing last year, then they acquired Starlin Castro to be their long-term second baseman earlier this offseason.

That isn’t to say the Yankees will never be okay with Refsnyder playing regularly. It might happen someday. Right now though, there’s no obvious place for him on the 25-man roster, which means another season in Triple-A. There are pretty much only two ways Refsnyder can have an impact for the 2016 Yankees: 1) Castro or Didi Gregorius get hurt, or 2) as a trade chip. That’s about it.

Gary Sanchez ranked second on the MLB.com’s catchers list and the Yankees did not have any representatives on the right-handers, left-handers, or first basemen lists. (Greg Bird no longer qualifies as a prospect. Too much MLB time.) The third base list comes out later today and the Yankees won’t have anyone on that either. Shortstops is tomorrow and Jorge Mateo figures to crack the top ten, though shortstop is always a super deep prospect position.

Gary Sanchez ranks second on MLB.com’s top ten catcher prospects list

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The crew at MLB.com is the middle of their series ranking the top ten prospects at each position. The Yankees didn’t have anyone on the right-handed pitcher or left-handed pitcher lists, but C Gary Sanchez ranks second on the catcher list, behind only Cubs C Willson Contreras. As always, MLB.com’s scouting information is free.

“Sanchez resuscitated his prospect stock last season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, and he made his big league debut in early October,” said the write-up, which also mentioned the persistent questions about his defense. There’s reason to think he’s improving defensively, however. Here’s a snippet of their latest scouting report:

Sanchez’s combination of bat speed, strength and loft in his right-handed swing allow him to drive balls great distances … Sanchez still can get overly aggressive at the plate, which hampers his ability to hit for average, and his receiving and blocking still need more polish. But he did show improvement in those facets of his game and played with more passion in 2015. If Sanchez stays behind the plate and realizes his power potential, he can be an All-Star.

It seems like Sanchez has the inside track for the backup catcher’s job heading into the 2016 season, though the Yankees could send him back to Triple-A for a little more work on his defense. And, as I mentioned in the mailbag this morning, sending him down for 35 days will delay his free agency another year. That seems tempting.

Either way, Opening Day roster or not, Sanchez has a clear long-term future with the Yankees following the John Ryan Murphy trade. Brian McCann is still quite productive, but he will be 32 next month and he has a ton of innings on his body, so at some point the Yankees will have to scale back his workload. Sanchez will be the guy to pick up the slack, a la Jorge Posada and Joe Girardi from 1997-99.

Aaron Judge claims top spot on Baseball Prospectus’ top ten Yankees prospects list

Judge. (Presswire)
Judge. (Presswire)

Prospect season is in full swing now. One day after Baseball America published their top ten Yankees prospects list, the crew at Baseball Prospectus did the same. For BP, the top ten list plus the write-up for the top prospect are free. Everything else is behind the paywall. Here’s the top ten:

  1. OF Aaron Judge
  2. SS Jorge Mateo
  3. C Gary Sanchez
  4. RHP James Kaprielian
  5. OF Dustin Fowler
  6. 2B Rob Refsnyder
  7. RHP Drew Finley
  8. 3B Eric Jagielo
  9. RHP Brady Lail
  10. LHP Ian Clarkin

Again, as a reminder, both RHP Luis Severino and 1B Greg Bird are no longer prospect eligible, which is why they’re not on the list. They both exceeded the rookie playing time limits this past season.

Judge, Mateo, Sanchez, and Kaprielian are very clearly the top four prospects in the organization right now, as I said yesterday. We could argue the precise order until we’re blue in the face, but those are the four guys. It’s them, then everyone else right now.

The BP gang appears to be quite high on Fowler — “If he isn’t an everyday center fielder at the highest level, he could be a very good fourth outfielder,” said the write-up — and I’m glad to see someone shares my Finley affection. I’m not sure Finley’s a top ten guy, but he’s close.

Both Jagielo and Clarkin were understandably dinged in the rankings after losing so much time to injury in 2015, but the BP crew opted not to ignore their ceilings. I don’t know where Jagielo will play long-term, but he can mash. Clarkin didn’t have surgery and showed his pre-injury stuff in the Arizona Fall League.

“Recent success with early-round draft picks and aggressive tactics in the July 2nd market have given the Yankees a deep system with a healthy mix of almost-ready major-league regulars and teenagers with loud tools,” said the write-up, which also listed SS Wilkerman Garcia, OF Leonardo Molina, C Luis Torrens, 3B Dermis Garcia, and LHP Jacob Lindgren as other interesting prospects to watch. One of those things is not like the others.

The Baseball Prospectus feature also includes a ranking of the top ten players in the organization age 25 or younger. Severino sits in the top spot, followed by Judge, Mateo, Sanchez, Bird, Kaprielian, Fowler, Refsnyder, RHP Bryan Mitchell, and LHP Chasen Shreve. SS Didi Gregorius, 2B Starlin Castro, and RHP Nathan Eovaldi all missed the age cutoff by a few weeks and weren’t eligible for the 25 and under list.

Of nothing else, the 25 and under list shows how much better shape the Yankees are in right now than a year ago. Last year Molina was in the top ten under 25 list and, uh, no. This year eight of the ten are either in MLB or will be very soon. “The Yankees of the future likely won’t take shape for a year or two at least,” said the write-up, “but if the end of 2015 was any indication, we’ll get an increased glimpse into its promise in 2016.”

Jorge Mateo tops Baseball America’s top ten Yankees prospects list

Mateo. (Main St. Rock)
Mateo. (Main St. Rock)

Baseball America’s annual look at the top ten prospects in each organization continued today with the Yankees and their improving farm system that figures to take a hit in the rankings. As always, the list and intro essay are free, but the individual scouting reports are not. You need a subscription for those. Here’s the top ten, as ranked by Josh Norris:

  1. SS Jorge Mateo
  2. C Gary Sanchez
  3. OF Aaron Judge
  4. RHP James Kaprielian
  5. RHP Domingo Acevedo
  6. RHP Rookie Davis
  7. SS Tyler Wade
  8. 2B Rob Refsnyder
  9. SS Wilkerman Garcia
  10. OF Dustin Fowler

As a reminder, neither RHP Luis Severino nor 1B Greg Bird are prospect eligible. They both exceeded the rookie playing time limits — 130 at-bats for position players and 50 innings for pitchers — this past season. Severino threw 62.1 innings and Bird had 167 at-bats in the big leagues.

I wouldn’t say Mateo moving into the top spot is surprising, though I don’t necessarily agree with it. Moving him ahead of Sanchez and especially Judge means fully buying into his projection. The scouting reports say Mateo “could be an above-average shortstop” while Sanchez “profiles as a front-line catcher,” yet the shortstop in Single-A is ranked above the catcher in Triple-A (or MLB). Eh, whatevs. I’m guessing the gap between No. 1 and No. 3 is pretty small anyway.

The team’s top four prospects — in whatever order — are pretty obvious. If you have anyone other than Mateo, Sanchez, Judge, and Kaprielian in the top four, you’re overthinking it. After the top four is where it gets interesting and I honestly have no idea who New York’s fifth best prospect is right now. Norris slots Acevedo in at No. 5 and he’s the next great divisive Yankees prospect. Some see him as an ace in the making and others see a big guy with a big fastball and not much else.

Davis and Wade both made nice strides this past season and Refsnyder is Refsnyder. We know all about him by now. Garcia had the best debut from the team’s massive 2014-15 international haul and the scouting report says he “has the potential to be a five-tool player, with some scouts even giving him future average power.” Fowler, a 2013 draftee, was a two-sport guy in high school who is starting to figure out this baseball thing now that he’s playing it full-time.

LHP Ian Clarkin and 3B Eric Jagielo stand out as the most notable omissions. Clarkin (elbow) was hurt all season before getting some innings in the Arizona Fall League, so it’s understandable to drop him. I’m not sure I’d drop him all the way out of the top ten, but to each his own. Jagielo probably isn’t a third baseman long-term, though he mashed at Double-A this summer before jamming his knee sliding into home plate and having surgery. I like Wade, but give me Clarkin and Jagielo before him.

The Yankees actually got some help from their farm system this past season, and the graduations of Severino and Bird all but guarantee the team will place lower in the various organizational rankings in 2016 than they did in 2015. Losing two high-end talents like Severino and Bird hurts. Then again, the farm system lost them for the right reason, not because they stalled out in the minors. Sanchez, Judge, Refsnyder and possibly Davis are the top ten prospects in position to help the Yankees in 2016.

Severino, Bird, Judge, and Sanchez rank among Baseball America’s top 20 International League prospects

(Tony Dejak/Associated Press)
(Tony Dejak/Associated Press)

Baseball America wrapped up their look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the Triple-A International League today. As always, the list is free but the scouting reports are not. Indians SS Francisco Lindor sits in the top spot. The Yankees have four players on the list: RHP Luis Severino (No. 2), 1B Greg Bird (No. 6), OF Aaron Judge (No. 10), and C Gary Sanchez (No. 18).

“While opposing managers lauded Severino’s stuff—a 92-97 mph fastball that typically sits at 95 and is complemented by a solid low-80s changeup and solid-average slider—many were equally impressed with his command, composure and athleticism on the mound,” said the write-up. The 21-year-old Severino had a 1.91 ERA (2.50 FIP) in eleven starts and 62.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton before being called up to the big leagues.

Bird, 22, hit .301/.353/.500 (146 wRC+) with six homers in 34 games with the RailRiders before being called up. “He combines a disciplined approach at the plate with a balanced swing and quick hands to drive the ball to all parts of the ballpark,” said the scouring report. “Bird made significant strides at first base this season: His footwork around the bag is serviceable and he has improved at picking balls in the dirt.”

Judge, 23, put up a .224/.308/.373 (98 wRC+) line with eight homers and a 28.5% strikeout rate in 61 games for Scranton this summer. “(Judge) struggled for stretches against experienced pitchers who found holes in his swing with breaking and offspeed pitches,” said the write-up. “He did show the ability to make adjustments and punish mistakes. Judge uses a gap-to-gap approach with bat speed and natural strength to drive the ball.”

As for Sanchez, the scouting report says he was “more mature off the field” and “in noticeably better shape this season.” The write-up also noted his “improved plate discipline” allowed him to better tap into his power in games. “He has double-plus arm strength behind the plate, and though he worked hard at improving his receiving, it remains the biggest hurdle for him to clear at catcher.” Sanchez, 22, hit .295/.349/.500 (145 wRC+) with six homers in 35 games for the RailRiders.

I was a bit surprised 2B Rob Refsnyder didn’t make the top 20, especially since Baseball America’s prospect rankings tend to be performance driven. Then again, I guess that could be why Refsnyder didn’t make the International League list. He had a good (123 wRC+) but not truly great year with the RailRiders. Others like RHP Bryan Mitchell, OF Slade Heathcott, and OF Ben Gamel are fine prospects, but not top 20 in the league caliber prospects.

Other league top 20s: Rookie Gulf Coast League, Rookie Appalachian League, Short Season NY-Penn League, Low-A South Atlantic League, High-A Florida State League, Double-A Eastern League

Judge, Bird among top Baseball America’s top 20 Eastern League prospects

Judge and Bird in the Arizona Fall League. (Presswire)
Judge and Bird in the Arizona Fall League. (Presswire)

Baseball America’s look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued earlier today with the Double-A Eastern League. As always, the list is free but the scouting reports are not. Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito claims the top spot and is followed by Phillies SS J.P. Crawford and Mets OF Michael Conforto.

The Yankees have two players on the stacked — seriously, Giolito and Crawford are the two best prospects in the minors right now — Eastern League list: OF Aaron Judge ranks 15th while 1B Greg Bird ranks 16th. RHP Luis Severino only threw 38 innings with Double-A Trenton and did not qualify for the list. Josh Norris did not take any Yankees questions in the subscriber-only chat, so there’s no other information there.

“Having such a big body means Judge has a big area for pitchers to attack, with a greater probability of finding holes to exploit. The book on Judge this year read: work him hard inside before finishing him off with soft stuff away,” said the write-up. “Even so, Judge’s power is undeniable, and he has the potential to make an impact in the near future … Nearly all who watch him say he’s more athletic than they’d estimate simply by looking at his body, and all praise his throwing arm as plus.”

Judge, 23, hit .284/.350/.516 (147 wRC+) with 12 homers, an 8.6% walk rate, and a 25.0% strikeout rate in 63 games with the Thunder before being promoted to Triple-A Scranton. The relatively low ranking seems like an overreaction to Judge’s strikeout issues in Triple-A more than anything, especially since the guy ranked one spot ahead of him (Phillies C Andrew Knapp) is older and had a similar strikeout rate (22.4%) while slugging .356. (Oops, read the wrong stat line.) Whatevs.

As for the 22-year-old Bird, the scouting report says he has “shown an approach at the plate advanced beyond his years, as well as enough power to stick as an everyday player at a corner position.” He also received credit for showing “smoother actions around the bag at first base” this summer, although his defense is still not considered a plus. We’ve seen it firsthand the last few weeks.

Bird put up a .258/.358/.445 (133 wRC+) line with six homers in 49 Double-A games before being promoted to Triple-A. He struck out in 14.2% of his plate appearances and walked 11.3% of the time. 3B Eric Jagielo and C Gary Sanchez both qualified for the top 20 — at least based on their playing time compared to Bird’s — but simply fell short of the list. OF Jake Cave and RHP Brady Lail were long shots for the top 20.

The next and final list of interest to Yankees fans it the Triple-A International League. That will be released later this week. Judge and Severino are right on the playing time bubble and might not qualify for the list. Bird and Sanchez will almost certainly fall short of qualifying. 2B Rob Refsnyder had plenty of playing time with the RailRiders and could be the only Yankees farmhand on the top 20. OF Ben Gamel and RHP Bryan Mitchell are long shot candidates.

Other league top 20s: Rookie Gulf Coast League, Rookie Appalachian League, Short Season NY-Penn League, Low-A South Atlantic League, High-A Florida State League

Jorge Mateo near top of Baseball America’s top 20 South Atlantic League prospects

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Baseball America’s look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued today with the Low-A South Atlantic League. The list is free but the scouting reports are not, as always. Red Sox 2B Yoan Moncada predictably claims the top prospect and is followed by SS Jorge Mateo. He ranks second and is the only Yankees farmhand on the list.

“Mateo has tools to rival the league’s No. 1 prospect Yoan Moncada,” said the write-up. “Mateo is just as fast, just as prolific at stealing bases, has similar power potential and a better arm. Plus, he is a potentially above-average defender at shortstop … Mateo is a well-rounded prospect who could end up making an impact both offensively and defensively.”

Mateo, 20, hit .278/.345/.392 (114 wRC+) with two homers, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and an 8.6% walk rate overall this season, including .268/.338/.378 (106 wRC+) in 96 games with Low-A Charleston before being promoted to High-A Tampa. Mateo led the minors with 82 steals this season — no one else had more than 71 and only one other player had more than 65 — and was only caught 17 times for an 83% success rate.

The most common comp for Mateo is Jose Reyes because they’re speedy shortstops, but that’s optimistic. Mateo is a righty hitter, not a switch-hitter, and Reyes had a 102 wRC+ in the big leagues when he was Mateo’s age. That’s not a fair comparison. That said, with RHP Luis Severino having graduated to MLB and OF Aaron Judge struggling in Triple-A, you could argue Mateo is the Yankees’ top prospect right now.

The next list relevant to Yankees fans is the Double-A Eastern League, and boy, the Yankees should be well-represented. Severino, Judge, 1B Greg Bird, C Gary Sanchez, and 3B Eric Jagielo are the big names with OF Jake Cave and RHP Brady Lail other possibilities. Severino and Judge may rank one-two in some order. That’d be neat. That list is due out next week.

Other league top 20s: Rookie Gulf Coast League, Rookie Appalachian League, Short Season NY-Penn League, High-A Florida State League