Update: Cano asked Mariners for ten years, $240M

8:03pm: Jon Heyman says the Mariners are preparing to offer Cano nine years and $225M. I would be surprised if the Yankees went that high. Cano might have to leave money on the table to return to New York.

6:16pm: Ken Rosenthal says Cano asked the Mariners for ten years and $240M. The team did make an offer but it was not over $200M. Last we heard, Robbie asked the Yankees for $250-260M or so. His price just came down again.

4:10pm: Via Enrique Rojas (translated article): The Mariners let Robinson Cano know they would be willing to offer him a ten-year contract worth $230-240M during a private meeting today. Robbie flew out to Seattle to speak to the club personally. It doesn’t sound like they gave him a formal offer, but either way, this is the first time another club has talked dollars with Cano (as far as we know). If they do offer him ten years and $230M or so, the Yankees would have no choice but to up their offer from seven years and roughly $165M, probably into the $200M range they reportedly want to avoid. Unless, of course, they’re willing to walk away.

More hot air about Robinson Cano

Who remembers following the hot stove season in the days before MLB Trade Rumors? You could read the New York papers and get tidbits here and there about free agent negotiations and trade speculation, but the information came from a limited number of sources. I remember reading the Star Ledger in my high school years, seeing just a tiny blurb here and there about the Yankees’ plans during the off-season. Only when deals appeared imminent did we get full articles.

When Trade Rumors launched in 2005, it changed the way everyone follows the off-season. Tim Dierkes and his crew (which at points included both Mike and me) have aggregated the notes from the beat writers and columnists of all 30 teams, giving us a fuller view of what’s happening. The writers have seemingly responded to this newfound national attention, working harder to provide even the smallest morsel of information. In the last few years Twitter has given rise to notes, rumors, and speculation like we’ve never before seen.

This is a long way of introducing the latest in the Robinson Cano hoopla. Over the weekend the Seattle Mariners “emerged” as a potential suitor for Cano. They’re desperate to become relevant, and Cano is, by some accounts, desperate to land a mega deal. The saga took a new twist yesterday, when we learned that Cano’s representatives met with the Mariners in Seattle and might have even made an offer. Yet it’s what came next that spurred an uproar.

Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik might have kicked off the fiasco with his comments to the press (as reported by Bob Dutton). “You have to adapt to the market. In some cases, you have to stretch more than you want to, you just have to.” He followed up by saying that he “always have felt there would be a time where we have to augment this club. I think we’re at that time.”

Those comments alone wouldn’t lead to rampant speculation, so Jason Churchill threw gasoline on the fire when he tweeted, “Just got a text from asst GM who think Seattle is about to make a ‘panic’ move…” Dave Cameron of FanGraphs fanned the flames when he said he received a similar text — which noted that the potential move could be “damaging.” Of course, given the reports of the meetings with Cano, people assumed that the Mariners were offering Cano an insane amount of money.

This morning George King took a fire extinguisher to the inferno (emphasis mine): “According to a person with knowledge of the Mariners’ involvement with the free-agent second baseman, the club’s ownership doesn’t have the stomach to pay one player $200 million across eight years even though they are doing the tango with Cano’s camp.” So perhaps the Mariners did make an offer. Chances are that if it topped the Yankees’ offer of around $170 million, it wasn’t by much.

Looking in from the outside, it is impossible to fully understand what’s happening behind the scenes. We can only piece together what we’ve heard. Clearly, it’s curious that Seattle “emerged” as a Cano suitor only after the Yankees met with Cano’s representatives last week. Obviously Cano and his people weren’t happy with the $80 million or so gap between their offers, so it makes sense that they’d try to get another team involved. Sensing desperation in Seattle, Cano’s team made a wise choice.

At this point it appears that Cano’s representatives at CAA are using Seattle in the same way they used the Mets. They’re trying to drum up interest wherever they can, in order to put the screws to the Yankees. Along the way perhaps they do elicit a bid from the Mariners that tops that of the Yankees. From what we’ve seen and heard, though, it does appear that Cano’s strongest option remains the Yankees. Perhaps the final contract will pay Cano a bit more than the roughly $170 million currently on the table ($188 million would mean an AAV $5 million higher than Ellsbury), but whatever the case, despite ridiculous odds reports, the safe bet is for Cano wearing No. 24 and batting in the Yankees’ lineup in 2014.

Update: Mariners may have made offer to Cano during meeting Tuesday

Wednesday: Cano’s representatives met with the Mariners’ brass in Seattle yesterday, according to Kevin Kernan. No word on whether Robbie himself was actually there. “The meeting went very well,” said one source to Kernan. Anthony McCarron hears the M’s are going after Cano with “guns-a-blazing” and may have made an offer during the meeting that exceeded New York’s.

Tuesday: Via Wally Matthews: The Yankees believe the Mariners may jump into the Robinson Cano sweepstakes and make a big offer, perhaps $200M across eight years. One official said the chances of Cano staying with New York are “less than 50-50″ while Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik acknlowedged speaking to pretty much every free agent available.

The headline and opening of Matthews’ article are scarier than the actual message. The Yankees think the Mariners could jump into the race but Seattle has not done that yet. I think the Dodgers could still get involved, but until it actually happens, it’s not worth worrying about. Cano’s camp is holding firm at nine years and $250-260M while the Yankees insist they won’t go near $200M. Things won’t get really interesting until another team gets serious and makes an offer.

Passan: Yankees will not offer Robinson Cano $200M

Via Jeff Passan: The Yankees are taking a hard line with Robinson Cano and will not push their contract offer up to $200M. The two sides met face-to-face several times last week and Robbie’s camp asked for a nine-year, $250-260M deal. “They are not going to go to $200M, period,” said a source to Passan while Mark Feinsand hears they remain “oceans apart.”

The offseason is still relatively young and Cano has yet to receive an offer from another team, at least as far as we know. That could change in an instant. The Nationals could make a push and I won’t believe the Dodgers are out of it until Cano signs his next contract. For now, the Yankees and their second baseman are locked in a high stakes game of hot stove chicken. At some point someone will cave — either the team will raise their offer or Cano will lower his demands. I don’t think either of those things will happen anytime soon.

Davidoff: Cano still seeking nine years, $250-260M

Via Ken Davidoff: Robinson Cano‘s camp requested a nine-year contract worth $250-260M when the two sides met face-to-face earlier this week. That’s down from the ten years and $305M they were seeking earlier this year. The Yankees, meanwhile, are holding steady with a seven-year offer in the $160-175M range. No reason to tack on another year or anything until another club actually makes him a competitive offer. Something tells me Robbie won’t be signing anytime soon.

Yankees met with Robinson Cano today, still far apart in contract talks

According to multiple reports, the Yankees met with Robinson Cano‘s representatives today to continue contract negotiations. It’s unclear if the two sides made any progress towards a deal, but the “gap is still very substantial.” They’ll talk again tomorrow before presumably breaking for the Thanksgiving holiday. As Joe wrote yesterday, the Yankees have been playing hardball with Cano and there’s a chance it will work to the benefit of all involved. The team has to continue to move forward and address their other needs though, they can’t wait around forever.

What Went Right: Robinson Cano, #KabakHat

On a cold day in February, I made a bet that I thought would be a sure thing. In a fit of Twitter arrogance, I threatened to eat my hat if Robinson Cano reached 80 walks. His previous career high had been 61.

How could things go wrong, I thought. The Yanks didn’t have a great lineup entering the season, but they seemed to be able to offer up Cano enough protection that he wouldn’t blow past his 2012 walk total. And the things went south in a hurry. Derek Jeter wasn’t ready to return really at all this year while Curtis Granderson suffered two freak accidents. Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner were total busts, and Cano was left holding the Yanks’ offense on his shoulders.

For a few months, things looked dicey. As Robbie emerged as the only real slugger in the Yanks’ lineup, his walk totals rose precipitously. After walking only 18 times in April and May combined, Robbie drew 18 free passes in June, and this four-walk affair at the hands of Joe Maddon and the Rays seemed to represent my nadir. Would I be able to eat an inedible item made of sponge and wire?

From May 24 through July 28 — a span of 59 games — Cano drew 39 free passes, ten of which were intentional. That’s a pace of over 100 in a 162-game season, and the hat seemed doomed. Even accounting for his slow start, Cano was on pace to draw 81 walks, and I figured all was lost. But then Alfonso Soriano arrived and Alex Rodriguez returned. It was all wine and roses from there.

From July 29 through the end of the season, Cano returned to his free-swinging ways. He drew just 13 walks while still hitting a robust .346/.391/.528. The intentional walk well fell dry as well since he now had protection in the lineup. Opposing mangers IBB’d Robbie just twice over the final two months of the season.

And so the hat was saved. Despite sweating out a tough summer, despite a short-lived Tumblr with hat recipes and an RAB Countdown, the hat has survived the winter. Robbie ended the year with 65 walks — a new career high but a far cry from the 80 he needed to achieve for us to see what happens when man eats toxic sponge. I’d say that’s a season that went very, very right.

(REUTERS/Robert Galbraith)
(REUTERS/Robert Galbraith)

Outside of the walks, though, Cano’s season was a bright spot. He hit .314/.383/.516 with 27 home runs and 107 RBIs. He played a spectacular second base and seemed to be a leader in the clubhouse when the top veterans were injured. After hitting 21 dingers prior to the All Star Break, he launched only six more longballs all year but still hit .331/.379/.494. He appeared on his fifth All Star game and placed fifth in the AL MVP voting.

What comes next though is more important than what he did. We’ve followed the saga of Robbie very closely. He’s a premier offensive player who can man his position with the best of them. He’s Jay-Z’s first client and star in New York City. He’s also turned 31 a little over a month ago and wants a long-term commitment with lots of dollar signs attached. The Yanks can’t afford to let him go but may not want to pay. Yet for all the public posturing, they need Robinson Cano. I won’t say I’ll eat my hat if he doesn’t sign with the Yanks; I’ve learned my lesson there. But I’d be very, very surprised if the team’s best player in 2013 isn’t wearing his Yankee pinstripes come April.