Archive for Seattle Mariners
8:03pm: Jon Heyman says the Mariners are preparing to offer Cano nine years and $225M. I would be surprised if the Yankees went that high. Cano might have to leave money on the table to return to New York.
6:16pm: Ken Rosenthal says Cano asked the Mariners for ten years and $240M. The team did make an offer but it was not over $200M. Last we heard, Robbie asked the Yankees for $250-260M or so. His price just came down again.
4:10pm: Via Enrique Rojas (translated article): The Mariners let Robinson Cano know they would be willing to offer him a ten-year contract worth $230-240M during a private meeting today. Robbie flew out to Seattle to speak to the club personally. It doesn’t sound like they gave him a formal offer, but either way, this is the first time another club has talked dollars with Cano (as far as we know). If they do offer him ten years and $230M or so, the Yankees would have no choice but to up their offer from seven years and roughly $165M, probably into the $200M range they reportedly want to avoid. Unless, of course, they’re willing to walk away.
Wednesday: Cano’s representatives met with the Mariners’ brass in Seattle yesterday, according to Kevin Kernan. No word on whether Robbie himself was actually there. “The meeting went very well,” said one source to Kernan. Anthony McCarron hears the M’s are going after Cano with “guns-a-blazing” and may have made an offer during the meeting that exceeded New York’s.
Tuesday: Via Wally Matthews: The Yankees believe the Mariners may jump into the Robinson Cano sweepstakes and make a big offer, perhaps $200M across eight years. One official said the chances of Cano staying with New York are “less than 50-50″ while Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik acknlowedged speaking to pretty much every free agent available.
The headline and opening of Matthews’ article are scarier than the actual message. The Yankees think the Mariners could jump into the race but Seattle has not done that yet. I think the Dodgers could still get involved, but until it actually happens, it’s not worth worrying about. Cano’s camp is holding firm at nine years and $250-260M while the Yankees insist they won’t go near $200M. Things won’t get really interesting until another team gets serious and makes an offer.
The Yankees re-signed Joe Girardi to a new four-year contract worth $16M yesterday, but there are still some other coaching staff and front office situations to address. Here’s the latest from George King, Andy Martino, and Andrew Marchand.
- Pitching coach Larry Rothschild is close to signing a new contract extension. Brian Cashman recently said the team hoped to bring him back, but they needed to get the manager’s spot settled first. All of the coaches’ contracts expire on October 31st.
- The Mariners have internally discussed the possibility of pursuing Yankees third base coach Rob Thomson for their managerial opening. They have not yet asked New York for permission to interview Thomson or any of their coaches, however.
- The Phillies named Pete Mackanin their new third base coach earlier this week. He spent this past year as a Major League scout with the Yankees. Mackanin is very highly regarded within the game and was reportedly on the team’s short list of managerial candidates if Girardi left.
- The Yankees will not bring back Charlie Wonsowicz, who has been an advance scout/video coordinator for the last five years. The position has being eliminated for whatever reason. Wonsowicz had been in the organization for 21 years.
- Lastly, former Yankee and current YES broadcaster Paul O’Neill has some interest in replacing the since-fired Dusty Baker in Cincinnati. However, Reds GM Walt Jocketty confirmed the team has “not reached out to Paul regarding our managerial vacancy.”
Via Jon Heyman: The Yankees used their contractual right to decline the Mariners permission to interview Brian Cashman for their GM vacancy back in 2008. Seattle eventually settled on Jack Zduriencik. “I’m a fan of Brian Cashman. We’re both Kentucky guys. He’s an astute baseball man, and I like him very much,” said Mariners president Chuck Armstrong.
Despite some very public disagreements, Heyman says Cashman and team ownership have no interest in severing an “overwhelmingly positive longstanding relationship.” Cashman is under contract through next year and reportedly does not want to leave New York, plus an official told Heyman his job is “secure.” I still think Cashman winds up being promoted to some other position (President of Baseball Operations?) after next season with assistant Billy Eppler taking over as GM. I feel like that transition has been in the works for a while now.
Off to the West Coast. The Yankees are in Seattle for the start of a ten-game, 12-day road trip up and down the Pacific coast. Four games in the Emerald City start things off.
What Have They Done Lately?
As you probably heard, the Mariners lost a ridiculous 16-inning game to the White Sox yesterday. They were down five runs in the 14th and came back to tie it before losing two innings later. Seattle won two straight before the loss and is 26-34 with a -42 run differential, making them one of the AL’s worst.
The Mariners average 3.7 runs per game with a team 97 wRC+, but this isn’t the same lineup the Yankees saw in New York a few weeks ago. 2B Dustin Ackley and C Jesus Montero have been sent to the minors, which was long overdue. They’re also without 1B Justin Smoak (103 wRC+), who is on the DL with an oblique injury. OF Mike Morse (120 wRC+) is day-to-day with a quad injury and could return to the lineup as soon as tonight. OF Franklin Gutierrez (126 wRC+) has been sucked into a black hole and will never be heard from again (hamstring).
Manager Eric Wedge has just two above-average, full-time players on his roster: 1B Kendrys Morales (142 wRC+) and 3B Kyle Seager (131 wRC+). Morse will make it three whenever he gets healthy. Former Yankee Raul Ibanez (118 wRC+) and former Met Jason Bay (110 wRC+) have formed a very nice DH platoon. Top prospect 2B Nick Franklin (166 wRC+ in limited time) was recently recalled to replace Ackley.
CF Endy Chavez (80 wRC+) has replaced Gutierrez and C Jesus Sucre (24 wRC+ in very limited time) replaced Montero. C Kelly Shoppach (80 wRC+) backs him up. OF Michael Saunders (87 wRC+) has been both hurt and disappointing while SS Brendan Ryan (57 wRC+) is his usual all-glove, no-hit self. 3B Alexi Liddi (-100 wRC+ in very, very, very limited time) and C Brandon Bantz (has not played) are on the roster as well. The Mariners can hit the ball out of the park (71 homers), but not much else.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Thursday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Aaron Harang
Those innings aren’t going to eat themselves. Harang, 35, is keeping a spot warm until some of Seattle’s prospects are deemed big league ready, and so far this year he’s pitched to a 5.82 ERA (4.43 FIP) in eight starts. His strikeout (8.10 K/9 and 20.6 K%) and walk (1.87 BB/9 and 4.5 BB%) rates are actually excellent, but he’s a fly ball (33.8% grounders) and homer (1.66 HR/9 and 12.1% HR/FB) machine. The Harangutan sits right around 90 mph with his two- and four-seam fastballs, and his top offspeed pitch is a low-80s slider. He’ll also throw mid-70s curveballs and low-80s changeups. The Yankees were supposed to see Harang when the Mariners came to the Bronx a few weeks ago, but he was scratched from the start with a stiff back. He’s never faced the Bombers in his long career.
Friday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Jeremy Bonderman
Yes, that Jeremy Bonderman. The 30-year-old former Tiger attempted a comeback this year after missing most of 2008-2010 and all of 2011-2012 due to various injuries. Seattle called him up and he made his first big league start in nearly three years last week, getting tattooed for seven runs on nine hits (seven for extra-bases) in 4.2 innings against the Twins. His Triple-A performance before being promoted wasn’t a whole lot better: 4.52 ERA (4.49 FIP), 4.66 K/9 (12.0 K%), and 2.54 BB/9 (6.5 BB%) in 63.2 innings. Bonderman sat right around 90 mph with his four-seamer last week, throwing a bunch of low-80s changeups and sliders as well. He’s not the pitcher he once was after all the injuries, so his experience against the Yankees is meaningless. Obviously no one on the roster has faced him in more than two years.
Saturday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. LHP Joe Saunders
Saunders, 31, apparently left his horseshoe in Baltimore. He’s been dreadful in 12 starts this year (5.20 ERA and 4.87 FIP) despite a career-high ground ball rate (48.0%). Saunders doesn’t strike anyone out (4.69 K/9 and 12.0 K%) but he limits walks (2.92 BB/9 and 7.4 BB%), which is good because he’s homer prone (1.27 HR/9 and 13.0% HR/FB). An upper-80s sinker is his weapon of choice, though he’ll occasionally mix in a few straight four-seamers at the same velocity. A low-80s changeup is his top secondary pitch, but he’ll also use low-80s sliders and mid-70s curves as well. The Yankees have seen Saunders plenty of times over the years, including twice with the Orioles late last year (once in September and once in the ALDS). He pitched well both times despite failing to complete six innings of work. Buck Showalter had the quick hook.
Sunday: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Felix Hernandez
You didn’t think the Yankees were going to get through a Mariners series without seeing Felix, did you? The 27-year-old King is having the best season of his career (2.58 ERA and 2.39 FIP), with career-best strikeout (9.43 K/9 and 26.8 K%) and walk (1.69 BB/9 and 4.8 BB%) rates. His 52.3% ground ball rate is not a career-high, but it is very good. Hernandez sits in the low-90s with his four-seamer and sinker, which is more than enough to set up his all-world array of offspeed pitches: upper-80s changeup, mid-80s slider, and low-80s curveball. He’s filthy. He’s filthy and he seems to dominate the Yankees every time he faces them. I expect no different this weekend.
That 16-inning game yesterday really taxed the Seattle bullpen. Six of their seven relievers pitched, with closer RHP Tom Wilhelmsen (3.10 FIP) the only exception. That’s because he pitched in each of the prior two games. RHP Yoervis Medina (2.69 FIP), former Yankee Hector Noesi (3.54 FIP), and former Yankees farmhand RHP Danny Farquhar (0.74 FIP in limited time) all threw multiple innings on Wednesday.
LHP Charlie Furbush (3.88 FIP) and RHP Carter Capps (3.62 FIP) are relatively well-rested despite pitching yesterday, though LHP Oliver Perez (3.21 FIP) has pitched in each of the last two games. I’m guessing the Mariners will make a roster move or two for a fresh arm tonight, perhaps involving Medina or Farquhar. Either way, the White Sox did the Yankees a big favor and the Mariners’ tired relief corps could be a factor this weekend.
The Yankees have a nice and fresh bullpen thanks to CC Sabathia‘s complete-game yesterday, or at least as fresh as they can be this time of year. David Robertson and Mariano Rivera were off yesterday but pitched in each of the two games before that. You can check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact recent reliever usage. Lookout Landing and U.S.S. Mariner are the best Mariners sites on the netweb.
Am I the only Yankees fan with an irrational dislike of the Mariners? I guess it dates back to the 1995 ALDS, but it’s really ramped up in recent years with the Cliff Lee non-trade and Michael Pineda‘s shoulder injury. On the bright side, Seattle has won just seven of 18 games at the new Yankee Stadium.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Mariners have actually been playing pretty well of late. They just took two of three from the free-falling Athletics and have won three of their last four games. They’ve also won six of their last nine and nine of their last 13 to bring their season record to 18-20 with a -20 run differential.
To no one’s surprise, the Mariners are a below-average offensive club. They’ve scored just 3.6 runs per game this year, and their team 94 wRC+ is a bottom ten mark in the game. Seattle’s only injured position player is CF Franklin Gutierrez (127 wRC+), who visits the DL on an annual basis these days. He’s out with a hamstring problem.
Manager Eric Wedge’s two best offensive players are CF Michael Saunders (144 wRC+) and 3B Kyle Seager (129 wRC+), and they usually bat first and second. Wedge doesn’t mess around. Offseason additions DH Kendrys Morales (118 wRC+) and OF Mike Morse (110 wRC+) anchor the middle of the lineup, but OF Jason Bay (131 wRC+) will get a prime batting order spot against southpaws.
Seattle’s trio of disappointing young positions players includes former Yankee C Jesus Montero (64 wRC+), who splits time behind the plate with C Kelly Shoppach (139 wRC+ in limited time). 1B Justin Smoak (99 wRC+) has been less awful than usual, but 2B Dustin Ackley (55 wRC+) has made up for it. SS Robert Andino (22 wRC+) is playing everyday over defensive whiz SS Brendan Ryan (-5 wRC+). OF Endy Chavez (71 wRC+) and former Yankee OF Raul Ibanez (80 wRC+) round out the everyday roster.
Starting Pitching Matchups
Tuesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Felix Hernandez
Did you know the Yankees haven’t played a series against the Mariners without seeing King Felix since 2009? That’s a span of ten series, and they’ve face him in every single one. That’s kinda annoying. The 27-year-old Hernandez has been as good as ever this year, pitching to a 1.53 ERA and 2.16 FIP through eight starts. His strikeout (8.59 K/9 and 25.3 K%), walk (1.23 BB/9 and 3.6 BB%), and ground ball (50.6%) rates are all outstanding. It seems silly to say, but as Jeff Sullivan wrote recently, Felix has made the jump from thrower to pitcher. His three fastballs — four-seamer, cutter, sinker — all sit in the low-90s, and his all-world array of offspeed pitches include an upper-80s changeup, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s curveball. The Yankees have seen Hernandez plenty over the years, but as you know, he usually dominates them.
Wednesday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
Believe it or not, the Mariners actually have two aces this year. Iwakuma, 32, has pitched almost as well as Felix this year (1.74 ERA and 2.80 FIP), his second in MLB after spending last season as a swingman. His peripheral stats are excellent as well — 8.88 K/9 (26.7 K%), 1.39 BB/9 (4.2 BB%), and 41.5% grounders — so it’s not all smoke and mirrors. That said, his .198 BABIP won’t last forever. Iwakuma’s four-seamer and sinker sit in the upper-80s, and his top offspeed offering is a mid-80s splitter that falls off the table. He’ll also throw low-80s sliders and slow-70s curveballs. The Yankees saw Iwakuma twice last year, both times as a starter. He held them to one run in five innings the first time, then got tagged for four runs in five innings the second time.
Thursday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. RHP Aaron Harang
Harang, 35, is no longer the strikeout heavy workhorse he was during his prime with the Reds. He’s bounced from the Dodgers to the Rockies to the Mariners these last six weeks or so, but he’s only thrown a pitch for Seattle in 2013. Harang has been awful so far, putting up a 7.30 ERA (5.14 FIP) in five starts despite strong strikeout (8.39 K/9 and 20.7 K%) and walk (1.82 BB/9 and 4.5 BB%) numbers. The problem is his 35.8% ground ball rate and 2.19 HR/9 (15.8% HR/FB). These days Harang will sit in the upper-80s with his two- and four-seamer, and he throws the former roughly twice as often as the latter. A low-80s slider is his top secondary pitch, but he’ll also throw the occasional low-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. Believe it or not, Harang has never faced the Yankees. I get that he was a career NL guy prior to being traded to the Mariners, but he’s been in the show for 12 years now. You’d think he would have run into them during interleague play at some point.
The Mariners were off on Monday for travel, so their bullpen is as fresh as can be this time of year. Closer RHP Tom Wilhelmsen (2.56 FIP) is one of the best least talked about relievers in the game, and setup men LHP Oliver Perez (3.76 FIP), RHP Carter Capps (4.72 FIP), and LHP Charlie Furbush (4.05 FIP) all rack up a ton of strikeouts. RHP Yoervis Medina (1.44 FIP in limited time) and LHP Lucas Luetge (2.64 FIP in limited time) handle the middle innings while former Yankee RHP Hector Noesi (2.67 FIP) is saddled with long relief duty.
Despite yesterday’s doubleheader, the Yankees are in pretty good shape bullpen-wise. Both David Robertson and Mariano Rivera had the day off, but they’ve also pitched in four of the last six days. Giving them the proverbial one extra day would be neat. If the Yankees send down one of their extra arms to clear a roster spot for Curtis Granderson, I’m guessing they would keep the fresh and available Brett Marshall and demote Vidal Nuno. I guess we’ll find out. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for recent reliever usage. For the latest and greatest on the Mariners, I recommend Lookout Landing and U.S.S. Mariner.
Felix Hernandez is close to signing a mammoth seven-year, $175M contract with the Mariners according to Bob Nightengale. The deal rips up the final two years of his previous contract and takes effect immediately, so it’s basically a five-year extension that will keep him in Seattle through 2019. The Yankees and pretty much every other team have tried to trade for Felix at some point recently, but GM Jack Zduriencik steadfastly refused to discuss him. Don’t worry, I’m sure the Yankees will pay through the nose for whatever is left of his career in seven years.
According to multiple reports, the Mariners have re-acquired Mike Morse from the Nationals in a three-team trade that sends John Jaso to the Athletics and prospects to Washington. The Yankees had interest in Morse but apparently not enough to make a serious run at him. That’s a shame. Oakland designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster, and New York should definitely look to bring him in. Here’s the now-outdated Scouting The Market post I wrote about him last summer. Makes too much sense to actually happen.
The Yankees will have a new DH next season. Raul Ibanez is headed back to Seattle, having agreed to a one-year deal with the Mariners according to multiple reports. He’ll earn a guaranteed $2.75M with another $1.25M in incentives. Just a few days ago we learned the Yankees were still talking to Ibanez about a return next season, but you can’t blame him for taking that deal. Great job by his agent. It’ll be Raul’s third stint in Seattle.
Ibanez, 40, earned True Yankee™ status with all of those ridiculously clutch homers late in the season and in the playoffs, but I was all for turning the page. I dig the idea of acquiring Jason Kubel to DH, but the free agent market has plenty of alternatives as well — Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Jason Giambi, and Luke Scott just to name a few. I expect the club to seek a DH capable of actually playing the field in an emergency, so that probably rules out the Thomes and Hafners of the world.
Only three questions this week, but they’re good ones. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything at any time. I might do a few mailbag posts next week since things will be slow during the holiday and I know I’ll have the itch to write but not the itch to think real hard, so submit accordingly.
Jimmy asks: So the Yankees traded A.J. Burnett and he had a good season for the Pirates. Can we get some analysis in terms of did his command and velocity improve? Or was it the transition to a weaker division and league combined with the effects of PNC Park and their defense? Why was he so good? Since they’re still paying so much of his contract, should the Yankees have seller’s remorse?
Burnett, 35, pitched to a 3.51 ERA (3.52 FIP) in 202.1 innings and 31 starts for the Pirates last season. His strikeout rate (8.02 K/9 and 21.2 K%) was almost identical to his career norms, though his walk (2.76 BB/9 and 7.3 BB%) and ground ball (56.9%) rates were his best in six and seven years, respectively. His homer rate (0.80 HR/9 and 12.7% HR/FB) also dropped quite a bit, but that was expected. He didn’t enjoy any BABIP luck (.294 after .294-.319 from 2008-2010) but surely got some help from PNC Park, which is much more pitcher friendly than Yankee Stadium.
For the most part Burnett did not change his pitch selection much. He scrapped the cutter he toyed with in 2011 and otherwise threw a few more sinkers at the expense of changeups, but nothing drastic. His fastball averaged 92.2 mph, continuing a slow and steady decline that is very normal for a pitcher in his mid-30s. Burnett did throw more strikes through, a lot more in fact. His 61.1% first pitch strike rate was his best in eight years and about five percentage points better than what he did in New York. More than half (51.1% to be exact) of his pitches were in the strike zone as well, his highest rate in the PitchFX era and nearly seven percentage points better than 2011. That could be an NL thing (weaker lineups), a mechanics thing, or a million other things. Who knows?
It’s probably worth noting that Burnett threw to Rod Barajas this season, who was his catcher during his strong 2008 campaign with the Blue Jays. Maybe the two just work together well, but if nothing else it probably helped the transition a bit. It was pretty obvious after 2011 that Burnett had to go and the Yankees would have to each a big chunk of his contract to make it happen, which sucks. I don’t think the Yankees have (or should have) seller’s remorse though. He had just had two of the worst seasons by a starter in team history in back-to-back years and was showing no signs of turning things around. Burnett worked hard, he tweaked his delivery every other start it seemed, but nothing was working. At some point a change as to be made, especially if you’re trying to contend.
Mark asks: It seems that the Mariners are looking for some outfield help and are most likely missing out on Nick Swisher, as they did Josh Hamilton. Do you think they would be interested in Curtis Granderson and possibly send something back of quality in return? Say a right-handed bat like Jesus Montero? What else would the Yanks need to add to get a return of that quality?
The Mariners added offense in Kendrys Morales earlier this week and are still looking for outfield help, but they have very little of value to offer the Yankees for Granderson. They aren’t getting Taijuan Walker or any of Seattle’s other big pitching prospects, and I doubt the M’s have soured so much on Montero that they’d trade him for one year of Granderson, or even one year of Granderson plus a prospect. Justin Smoak is awful and Franklin Gutierrez hits the undesirable trifecta (awful, injury prone, expensive), so forget them.
The Yankees could ask for infielder Kyle Seager or nominal catcher John Jaso, but I would expect a no to both. Right-handed hitting outfielder Casper Wells could probably be had and he’d make a ton of sense for New York, but he alone is not nearly enough of a return. As I’ve been saying for weeks, it’s very hard to envision a realistic trade scenario in which the Yankees move Granderson and actually improve the team. The Mariners could use the Grandyman, but they don’t have much to make it worthwhile.
Mike asks: Just wondering if you think the Yankees should have any interest in Kelly Shoppach. He has the AL East pedigree and would provide some desperately needed RH pop. Too expensive?
Shoppach, 32, has spent most of the last three seasons with the Rays and Red Sox, so he’s certainly familiar with the division. His overall offensive performance is pretty bad (even for a catcher) during those three years (.202/.294/.374, 85 wRC+), but that doesn’t tell the whole story. As a right-handed batter, Shoppach pounds lefties (.246/.336/.437, 115 wRC+) and gets completely dominated by righties (.156/.248/.301, 52 wRC+). It’s worth mentioning that since 2010, only one batter (Mark Reynolds) has made less contact on pitches in the strike zone than Shoppach (73.4%). His career 33.4% strikeout rate is ghastly for a player without huge power.
The various catcher defense rankings (2010, 2011, 2012) rate Shoppach as anywhere from average to above-average behind the plate, which surprised me. He’s also thrown out 31.5% of attempted base-stealers over the last three seasons, which is much better than the league average. For some reason I thought he was a butcher back there. The Yankees already have three right-handed hitting catchers in Frankie Cervelli, Chris Stewart, and Austin Romine, but that shouldn’t stop them from pursuing Shoppach at a reasonable (one-year, $3M?) price just so they could get some offense from the catcher position, even if it’s just against lefties.