River Avenue Blues

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Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

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(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

What offseason move would you undo?
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A lesson to take from the Sonny Gray disappointment

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(Presswire)

The Sonny Gray era in New York came and went much faster than anyone could have expected. He was one of the 2017’s trade deadlines prizes: an already successful 27 year-old with two more seasons under team control. Aside from a rough 2016, Gray was excellent in Oakland and recorded a 3.42 ERA in 705 innings. Alas, Gray was not the same pitcher in pinstripes. He was decent down the stretch in 2017, but 2018 was an abject disaster. Enough so that the Yankees were ready to move on.

Hindsight makes for easy judgement, but the truth is that the Gray trade was a sound decision at the time. How he was handled after joining the club is where we can find fault. It’s also a learning opportunity. In this case: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Gray built his career relying heavily on his fastball and sinker, only going to a curveball or slider as needed. Once he joined the Yankees, that allocation changed.

Since 2015, Yankees’ hurlers have thrown 46 percent non-fastballs. That’s easily the most frequent in baseball, ahead of the second-place Dodgers (43.4 percent). This isn’t a coincidence. Gray, at least in the Yankees’ eyes, was the perfect pitcher to implement this philosophy. The thought was that he didn’t use his curveball or slider enough. Low usage and high spin rates undoubtedly enticed the Yankees, who saw the under-utilization as an opportunity. Instead, it might have been his downfall.

Marrying the Yankees’ philosophy to Gray’s pitch usage didn’t happen in earnest until 2018. Perhaps that’s why Gray was actually decent in the second half of 2017 (3.72 ERA). Although Gray still leaned on hard pitches in 2018, the gap substantially shrunk. For all the debate about having Austin Romine as his personal catcher and whether or not he could handle the Big Apple, maybe more fault should be on the shoulders of the team.

Going forward, the Yankees are unlikely to abandon this pitching style. Hitters have more success against fastballs, so the evidence is in the team’s favor. However, if there are any takeaway from the Gray Saga, it’s that a one size fits all approach isn’t for the best. Sure, a pitcher could have excellent underlying Statcast metrics on his curve or slider, but that doesn’t mean those pitches need to be thrown more often. If a guy has had past success without throwing them at a high rate, why change? Making drastic adjustments for a struggling pitcher or one who doesn’t have a good fastball is one thing. That wasn’t the case for Gray.

On the bright side, the acquisitions of J.A. Happ and James Paxton are of some solace. Granted, neither have breaking balls with elite spin rates like Gray, so it’s not like the Yankees were going to try anything new. Rather, it’s the fact that the Yankees were willing to trade for them despite not aligning with the club’s pitching blueprint. Happ and Paxton go to their heat around 75 percent of the time, yet that didn’t scare the Yankees away. Perhaps this is an indication that the Yankees no longer feel the need to find guys that they can mold into their vision. Whatever the case may be, I don’t think they’ll try changing anyone’s pitch usage again anytime soon, unless it’s a last resort.

Sonny Gray left the Yankees little choice but to trade him

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(Presswire)

After a weekend of rumors and an offseason of waiting, the Yankees finally traded Sonny Gray earlier this week. We all knew it was coming at some point. We just didn’t know when. Gray went to the Reds in a three-team trade with the Mariners. The Yankees walked away with a lower minors prospect and a draft pick, which, honestly, is more than I thought they’d get. The draft pool money is a big deal.

The trade closes the book on Gray’s stint as a Yankee and we now know for certain it was a bust. There’s no chance at redemption now. I liked Gray and was glad when the Yankees added him for the 2017 stretch run, but the trade was a failure. The Yankees acquired Sonny expecting at least a mid-rotation innings guy and hoping for a bona fide No. 2 starter behind Luis Severino. They got a fifth starter. Sometimes worse.

At this point I’m not really interested in exploring why Gray performed the way he did with the Yankees. I’ve written enough about that the last 12 months or so. I don’t think it’s as simple as “he couldn’t handle New York” or “he was a bad match for Yankee Stadium.” I reckon it was a combination of several things, not one specific thing. Whatever it was, the Gray pickup proved to be a failure.

After last season, a season in which Gray had a 4.90 ERA (4.17 FIP) and lost his rotation spot to Lance Lynn and was not even a consideration for the postseason roster, the Yankees had two choices:

  1. Keep him and try to salvage him in 2019.
  2. Cut their losses and trade him.

Personally, I was willing to give No. 1 a try. I’ve been a Sonny Gray fan for a long time now and I wanted it to work with the Yankees, so I was open to bringing him into the new season as a swingman/sixth starter. You know a starter is going to get hurt at some point. That’s baseball. Gray has more upside than pretty much anyone the Yankees could realistically bring in as a sixth starter.

I was willing to give Gray another chance in 2019. What I think doesn’t matter though. The only thing that matters here is how the Yankees feel about Gray and their assessment of his performance going forward, and Brian Cashman made it clear the Yankees do not expect Sonny to improve next year, or at least improve enough to keep his $7.5M salary on the books. I thought this quote was pretty damning. From Joel Sherman (emphasis mine):

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx,” Cashman told me Monday at the GM Meetings. “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”

The Yankees tried pretty much everything with Gray last season. They gave him his personal catcher. They tightened up his mechanics. They altered his pitch selection and had him emphasize his sinker and curveball. They changed his role. When Cashman or Aaron Boone or Larry Rothschild were asked about Gray, their response often started with an exhale and a sigh. They were frustrated. Exasperated. Maybe even angry.

Given the way Cashman and the Yankees had been talking about him, it’s clear they did not trust Gray on the mound. How well would Sonny have to perform for you to feel confident when he’s on the mound? How long would he have to perform at that level to earn your trust? I imagine the answer is very good and very long. Longer than the Yankees were willing to commit and maybe longer than possible give his impending free agency.

Once the Yankees determined “(we) don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results” as Cashman said, that was it. They’d reached the point of no return. Gray had become a sunk cost. The Yankees gave up three pretty good prospects to get Sonny* and there was nothing they could do to change that. They could continue to force the issue and try to salvage him, or cut their losses and move on. They moved on.

* Could you imagine how much worse this all would’ve looked had Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, or Jorge Mateo done anything of note for the Athletics? They still could, sure. Right now, that trade is a dud all around. Everyone involved has seen their stock drop.

Everyone deserves some share of the blame here. The Yankees, the coaches and analysts that couldn’t get him on track, and Sonny himself. There was no progress last year. It was one step forward, one step back all season. Every sign of improvement vanished with the next start. Eventually it gets to the point where it’s untenable, and it had become untenable with Gray. At that point, the best thing for both parties is a clean break. Everyone gets a fresh start now.

The Yankees decided to make Gray some other team’s problem. They spent a year (more than that, really) trying to get him right and nothing worked. If he had multiple years of control remaining rather than one, I think the Yankees would’ve kept him. But, with just the one year of control remaining, there wasn’t enough long-term upside to keep working at it. The Yankees had grown obviously frustrated with Gray and if they didn’t believe he could help them this year, a trade was the only choice. It was time to move on, not hope for something that everything on the field told you isn’t going to happen.

So long, Sonny: Yankees trade Gray to Reds in three-team deal with Mariners

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(Elsa/Getty)

It took a little longer than I think everyone expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. Earlier today the Yankees sent Gray to the Reds in what is essentially a three-team trade with the Mariners. The deals have been announced, so it is official. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Reds get: Sonny Gray and lefty pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin
  • Mariners get: Second base prospect Shed Long
  • Yankees get: Center field prospect Josh Stowers and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Officially, the Yankees traded Gray and Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, then flipped Long to the Mariners for Stowers. Based on the timestamps on the press releases, Long was officially a Yankee for nine minutes. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with this deal, which means they won’t have to make an additional move when they announce the Adam Ottavino signing.

The Reds were reportedly unwilling to make the trade without signing Gray to a contract extension. The two sides have agreed to a three-year extension covering 2020-22. It is reportedly worth $30.5M. There is also a fourth year club option worth $12M, plus performance bonuses. Add in the one-year contract he already signed for 2019, and Gray’s new deal can max out at $50M across five years. Not bad.

Following the postseason Brian Cashman made it clear he was ready to trade Gray. His market took a little longer to develop than I expected, and the Yankees claimed they wanted to hold on to him following CC Sabathia’s heart procedure, but I never really bought it. It was a matter of “when” they’d trade Gray, not “if.” Cashman and the Yankees made it very clear they were ready to move on.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman in November. “Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.”

“Ultimately, you want to play somewhere where you’re wanted,” said Gray to Mike Organ recently. “… I don’t think it’s a secret to anyone, it’s kind of been an up-and-down experience for me. I’ve loved my time there. I love the guys. It was obviously a difficult season this past year, starting and then going to the bullpen, not pitching as much. But, I mean, I won eleven games last year.”

Gray, 29, came to the Yankees in a deadline deal with the Athletics in 2017. Things started out fine, but he struggled with his control late that season, then things really fell apart last year. All told Gray pitched to a 4.51 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 195.2 innings in pinstripes. That includes a 6.55 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Sonny didn’t mix well with the Bronx for whatever reason.

The 22-year-old Sanmartin came over from the Rangers in a minor trade last offseason and he pitched to a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings at four levels last year. I answered a mailbag question about him recently. Sanmartin’s a stats over scouting report prospect who will probably wind up in the bullpen. The Yankees are loaded with lower level arms and Sanmartin is an easy prospect to trade away.

Stowers, 21, was Seattle’s second round pick in last year’s draft. They gave him a $1.1M bonus as the 54th overall selection and he hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers and 20 steals in 58 short season league games after turning pro. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in the Mariners’ system before the trade. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report:

The biggest question in projecting Stowers’ future is whether he can stay in center field, because he needs to improve his reads and jumps … his plus speed is enough for the position if he makes the rest of the necessary improvements. Otherwise, a below-average arm would limit him to left field. Stowers’ bat will likely carry him. He has a plus hit tool, and his sharp batting eye is expected to help him at higher levels when pitchers are around the zone more. With average power, Stowers projects to be able to hit 15-20 home runs per year.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Long as the seventh best prospect in the Reds’ system before the trade. Based on the little I know about Long and Stowers, my preference would’ve been to hang on to Long, mostly because I prefer infielders to outfielders and upper level players to lower level players whenever possible. Stowers is just getting his career started and is a few years away. Long might play in MLB this coming season. Shrug.

The draft pick is a pretty big deal. Competitive Balance Round picks are the only draft picks that can be traded — this is the first time the Yankees have ever traded for a pick — and, right now, the draft pick is 36th overall. It could move a little in either direction as the remaining qualified free agents sign, though it’ll be in the mid-30s. The Yankees get the draft pick and the bonus pool money associated with the pick. Last year the 36th overall selection had a $1.97M slot value. An extra pick and all that extra bonus pool money equals more talent for the farm system this summer.

According to my quick math the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is down to $221M this coming season, which is below the $226M second luxury tax tier. Realistically, there’s no way they can get under the $206M threshold at this point. Staying under the $226M threshold and avoiding the surtax is definitely doable and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the goal. A Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing has felt unlikely for weeks and this trade doesn’t change that.

Aside from a surprise Machado or Harper signing, the only thing the Yankees really have left to do this winter is replace Gray with another swingman/spot starter type. I’d bet on that pitcher making much less than the $7.5M the Yankees were slated to pay Sonny this season. I’ve mentioned Francisco Liriano a few times as a personal favorite for that swingman role. Looking over the list of free agents, others like Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz could be swingman candidates. We’ll see.

Update: Yankees, Reds making progress on Sonny Gray trade

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Somehow still a Yankee. (Elsa/Getty)

Friday: The Sonny Gray trade rumors continue to swirl. Earlier today we heard the Yankees are moving closer to a deal, and now, according to Ken Rosenthal, and Yankees and Reds are making progress on a trade that would send Gray to Cincinnati. There haven’t been any updates since Rosenthal’s report, which is pretty annoying!

Here’s what we know about the current Gray trade talks with the Reds:

The Reds pursuing Gray passes the sniff test. They’ve been trading for veteran one-year rentals like Gray all winter (Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood), and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. There’s a connection already in place. Cincinnati has seemed like a potential landing spot all offseason.

Getting Stephenson, Long, and a draft pick for Gray seems way too good to be true to me. It sounds more like those are the players (and pick) the Yankees have sought in their latest trade talks. Who knows whether the Reds are willing to give them up though. Maybe the Yankees can snag two of the three in a trade. That’d be pretty sweet.

My quick math puts the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $228.5M following the Adam Ottavino deal. Trading Gray and his entire $7.5M salary would get them under the $226M second luxury tax tier. The Yankees have made it clear they want to trade Sonny. Now that just about every other piece of offseason business has been handled, they figure to get around to moving Gray.

At the moment Gray has not been traded to the Reds. The two sides are only progressing toward a deal, as far as we know. Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart sent out a cryptic tweet this afternoon, so maybe the deal is done and we just don’t know it yet. Either way, hopefully this gets wrapped up soon. It’s been dragging on far too long already.

Saturday: According to Heyman, the Yankees and Reds are getting closer to a trade but it’s not done yet (argh). They’re discussing two prospects and the draft pick for Gray. Cincinnati wants to keep Stephenson, so right now talks are centered around Long, the draft pick, and an unidentified second prospect. Intrigue!

Sunday: The Yankees and Reds have agreed to the trade package but apparently Cincinnati is trying to sign Gray to a contract extension before finalizing the trade, report Heyman and Ken Rosenthal. The Yankees have to give the Reds permission to discuss an extension with Gray (duh) and if they do work out a deal, the Yankees could get more in return. Huh. Everyone root for an extension.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Gray, Kahnle, Holder, Roman

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Hurry up and sign, Manny. I’m running out of photo options. (Getty)

Every time I say I think the Yankees are done with big offseason moves, they sign someone else. It was Adam Ottavino yesterday, DJ LeMahieu last week, and Zach Britton the week before that. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ottavino deal early next week. Until then, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have made Machado an offer?

Manuel Machado, Manny’s father, told Hector Gomez his son has received offers from several teams, including the Yankees. “Manny has received offers from different teams. Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies. Now there’s a lot of interest from the White Sox,” said Manuel. Not that long ago it was reported the Yankees hadn’t made Machado a “concrete” offer, which is not a big deal. If there’s an offer in front of him now though, it indicates the Yankees are getting serious.

I’m passing this nugget along because it’s out there, so you might as well read it on my site, but I caution you to be extremely careful not to read too much into these comments. Machado’s father has an obvious incentive to pump up Manny’s market — it’s good for business when the Yankees and Dodgers are involved in the bidding — and get his son the best deal possible. The Dodgers haven’t been connected to Machado at all this winter. Now they’ve made an offer? Not sure about that. You’re welcome to believe what you want. This doesn’t strike me as all that reliable.

Yankees getting closer to trading Gray

According to Jack Curry and Jon Heyman, the Yankees are getting closer to trading Sonny Gray and it could happen soon. They’re talking to several teams with the Giants newly into the mix. That makes sense. Their new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new pitching coach Curt Young know Sonny from their days with the Athletics. San Francisco seems perfectly positioned to buy low on Gray, then sign him long-term if he bounces back.

I have the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at roughly $228.5M following the Ottavino deal. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. My number includes a larger estimate for benefits and also something for in-season injury/September call-ups. Anyway, point is the Yankees are dangerously close to the $226M second luxury tier, if not over it already. Now that the Ottavino deal is in place, trading Gray and finding a cheaper swingman to get the payroll in order feels inevitable. For 40-man roster purposes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sonny moved before the Ottavino deal is made official.

Kahnle, Holder drawing interest

2018 Kahnle in picture form. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

According to Heyman, the Yankees are getting calls about righty relievers Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. I’m not surprised teams are looking to buy low on Kahnle. Seeing whether he can bounce back this year is worthwhile, but no way would I make him off-limits in trade talks. He’s owed $1.3875M this year and shedding that money could be a priority. Holder had a very nice 2018 and is both dirt cheap and under team control another five years. Of course teams are asking about him.

With Britton re-signed and Ottavino agreeing to a deal, the Yankees are in better position to consider trading away a reliever. It’s a position of depth. Trading Holder or especially Kahnle when you have Britton, Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Chad Green is an easy pill to swallow. The Yankees love their big velocity bat-missers and Holder is decidedly not that. Could they cash him in as a trade chip when his value is as high as it’s ever been and maybe as high as it’ll ever get? Hmmm.

Yankees trade Locastro to D’Backs

Earlier this week the Yankees traded utility man Tim Locastro to the Diamondbacks for lefty pitching prospect Ronald Roman and cash, the team announced. Locastro had been designated for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for LeMahieu. The Yankees got him from the Dodgers for 2015 third round pick Drew Finley earlier this offseason. Locastro, like Hanser Alberto, didn’t make it to Spring Training after being acquired earlier in the winter and spending a few weeks on the 40-man roster. I’m going to start calling this The Dan Otero Club.

Anyway, Roman is a just turned 17-year-old kid the D’Backs signed as an international free agent last July. He has not yet made his professional debut. He’ll do that this year. Roman was a small bonus signing and I can’t find any information on the kid. Sorry. Roman is almost certainly a player the Yankees wanted to sign last July but didn’t because either the D’Backs beat them to him (maybe) or because they ran out of bonus pool money (probably). Either way, he’s in the organization now. In a roundabout way the Yankees turned Finley, a busted prospect, into a young lottery ticket arm.

Six things the Yankees should do before Spring Training

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Harper waiting for the Yankees to swoop in. (Getty)

In three weeks and six days Yankees pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. We are five weeks and two days away from the first Grapefruit League game. There are still a lot of free agents who have to sign between now and then — a lot of big name free agents, at that — but, soon enough, baseball will return. I can’t wait. I’m totally over the offseason.

The Yankees have, for the most part, handled all their offseason business. The rotation has been bolstered, Didi Gregorius has been replaced, and the bullpen has been shored up. There is always room for improvement, but, generally speaking, the Yankees are in good shape. FanGraphs currently projects them as the second best team in baseball, two games behind the Red Sox, and I’m not sweating a projected two-game difference in January.

Even with the roster largely set, there are still four weeks to go until camp opens, and that gives the Yankees some time to address any remaining items on their to-do list. It also gives them time to pounce on anything unexpected that comes their way. Here are six things the Yankees should look to get done before Spring Training (or shortly thereafter), in rough order of importance.

Monitor the Machado and Harper markets

Has to be done. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are still unsigned and it doesn’t seem like either player is particularly close to making a decision. As long as these two sit in free agency, the Yankees have to remain engaged in case something falls into their lap. Reports that the White Sox offered Machado seven years and $175M have been shot down several times over. Still, the offers can’t be that good if he and Harper are still unsigned.

If Machado and Harper continue to sit out on the market, I am confident Brian Cashman will lobby ownership to expand payroll and sign them, the same way he (successfully) lobbied for Mark Teixeira. Will ownership say yes? Who knows. I guess it depends on the contract terms. Point is, as long as Machado and Harper remain unsigned and this is their market, the Yankees owe it to themselves to stay involved. Not doing so would be negligent.

Find Another Reliever

The Yankees reportedly want two relievers this winter and so far they’ve only added one, re-signing Zach Britton two weeks ago. They could stand pat with their current bullpen. Britton, Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder form about as strong a bullpen top five as you’ll find. Others like Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, and Stephen Tarpley are interesting enough that giving them a chance is not unreasonable.

That said, the Yankees are built around their bullpen, and any additional depth they can add would surely come in handy. Remember, the Yankees had Britton and David Robertson in their bullpen late last season. Robertson’s gone and has not been replaced. Here, in my opinion, are the top unsigned free agent relievers:

  1. Craig Kimbrel
  2. Adam Ottavino
  3. Mariano Rivera
  4. Cody Allen
  5. Adam Warren

Eventually some team will show interest in Kimbrel, right? His market has been extremely quiet thus far. After Kimbrel there’s Ottavino, a fine fit for the Yankees, and a bunch of reclamation projects and third tier relievers. The free agent reliever market has thinned out quite a bit these last few weeks. Kimbrel and Ottavino are far and away the best available and I can’t see the Yankees splurging for Kimbrel. Ottavino? Maybe.

Either way, Kimbrel and Ottavino or no Kimbrel and Ottavino, the Yankees do have room in their bullpen for one more established reliever. They don’t necessarily need another high-leverage guy but hey, I’d take one. Someone to reduce the reliance on Kahnle bouncing back and Cessa or German figuring it out would be appreciated. Aside from keeping tabs on Machado and Harper, adding another reliever is the top priority right now.

Explore Contract Extensions

The Yankees signed eight of their nine arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts prior to the salary filing deadline last week. Now that that’s out of the way, the Yankees can begin to explore contract extensions with their impending free agents, specifically Betances, Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks. Those are three really important players! They’re under contract for 2019. That part is out of the way. Now they should discuss 2020 and beyond.

Sir Didi. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Because Betances, Gregorius, and Hicks all have one-year contracts in place for 2019, the Yankees can sign them to a multi-year extension that begins in 2020 without it changing their luxury tax number this year. Any raise would be pushed back a year for luxury tax purposes, which is helpful. Get them signed long-term without altering your short-term payroll. That’s why the one-year contract for 2019 was so important. It allows the extension to begin in 2020.

There are of course reasons to wait on extending these players. Betances is volatile, Gregorius is hurt, and Hicks seems like the type of player who could get screwed over in free agency. In a normal free agent market, seeking Lorenzo Cain and Dexter Fowler money (five years, $80M or so) would not be unreasonable. Look at what’s happening to A.J. Pollock though. What if he gets, say, three years and $45M? Doesn’t that change things for Hicks?

Keep in mind this applies to players who aren’t impending free agents too. The Yankees have a lot of young and talented players. Why not see what Aaron Judge wants for a long-term contract? Or Luis Severino? Or Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and James Paxton? There is less urgency to extend players with team control remaining beyond 2019. It never hurts to ask though. Maybe someone is willing to sign cheap to lock in the guaranteed payday.

Late-January through March is extension season. That’s usually when we see teams lock up their young players. Maybe the league-wide unwillingness to spend money will change that and we’ll see fewer extensions than usual. For the Yankees, three important players are due to become free agents after the season and at some point they have to engage them in contract talks. The sooner, the better. At the very least, they have to find out what their contract demands are so they can plan accordingly.

Try To Settle With Severino

Severino is the one arbitration-eligible player the Yankees did not sign prior to last week’s salary filing deadline. He’s seeking $5.25M while the Yankees countered with $4.4M. Seems to me the Yankees will have an easier time defending their number. All signs point to the Yankees and Severino going to an arbitration hearing at some point in February. Supposedly all 30 teams are “file and trial” these days, meaning they cut off contract talks once the two sides file salary figures.

An arbitration hearing is not the end of the world. They can be contentious but they don’t have to ruin relationships long-term. The Yankees and Betances went to a hearing in 2017 and they had no trouble hammering out contracts the last two years. Back in the day the Yankees went to arbitration with Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Derek Jeter, and everything turned out fine. The Red Sox and Mookie Betts went to a hearing last year. They’re all good. It’s not the end of the world.

That said, avoiding an arbitration hearing is preferable, which is why players and teams work so hard to get a deal done before the salary filing deadline. The midpoint between the filing figures is the logical place to start when seeking a settlement. Can the Yankees and Severino agree to $4.825M for 2019? How much wiggle room is there? Bottom line, avoiding a hearing is preferable. The Yankees and Severino should try again to see if it’s possible.

Bargain Shop

There are still a ton of free agents looking for work this coming season. Guys like Machado, Harper, Kimbrel, Ottavino, Pollock, and Dallas Keuchel will be fine. They’ll get paid at some point. Maybe not as much as they were expecting a few months ago, but they’ll be set for life. What about guys like Warren though? Or Neil Walker? Logan Forsythe, Derek Dietrich, Francisco Liriano, so on and so forth? Those guys might be in trouble.

In this current free agent climate, February and March will be a great time to bargain shop because many players will be desperate to sign. That’s exactly how the Yankees landed Walker last season. I hate that it’s come to this for the players. It is what it is though. The Yankees have some open bullpen spots and still an open bench spot even after signing DJ LeMahieu. Scouring the free agent market for bargains as Spring Training draws closer is an obvious move. There could be some real nice depth pieces available on the cheap.

Trade Sonny Gray

My hunch is trading Gray is higher up the Yankees’ priority list than I have it. They seem done with him, and unloading his $7.5M salary frees them up to do other things, like sign Ottavino. I’m fine with bringing Sonny to Spring Training though. It might be a little awkward, but whatever. You can never have enough pitching depth, and all it takes is one spring injury to rekindle trade talks. Hey, maybe the Yankees lose a starter to injury and need Gray for the rotation. That would be kinda funny. Sonny saves the Yankees with 180 innings of 3.25 ERA ball.

But yeah, the Yankees are pretty much done with Gray. They want him gone and have not been shy about saying it. It is (very) surprising to me this has dragged on so long. The sooner the Yankees can move Gray, the sooner everyone can move on from this weird situation. A trade is best for everyone. The Yankees clear payroll and get a player(s) in return and Gray gets a fresh start. I’m okay with keeping Sonny around a little longer. I also think the Yankees want him gone and soon, so get it done.