Sonny Gray Archives - Page 2 of 14

The Yanks have spoken to the A’s and Reds about Sonny Gray and it seems a trade could happen soon

November 19, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is still very young and we’re all still waiting to see how the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius and upgrade their rotation. How they’ll do it, we don’t know. It’s still a mystery and that’s part of the fun. There is one part of the offseason that is not a mystery, however: Sonny Gray’s future. He’s getting traded. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any clearer.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” said Cashman to Joel Sherman earlier this month. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him … He is not a buy-low guy. All the data says he is not. He’ll be a good pitcher wherever he goes.”

Despite what Cashman said, Gray is a buy-low guy — a pitcher with Sonny’s resume coming off a bad year is the quintessential buy-low guy — and Jon Morosi reports the Athletics and Reds are trying to buy-low on him. The Yankees have spoken to both Oakland and Cincinnati about Sonny. Andy Martino adds there are “multiple offers” on the table and Cashman & Co. are currently sifting through them. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Does this pass the sniff test? Yeah, it does. When you first hear a rumor, it’s always good to take a step back and ask whether it makes sense, and this does. The A’s desperately need rotation help. They didn’t have anyone to start the Wild Card Game and, with Trevor Cahill a free agent and Sean Manaea likely to miss next season following shoulder surgery, their rotation depth chart looks like this:

Mike Fiers
Daniel Mengden
Frankie Montas
Chris Bassitt
Andrew Triggs

Yup, the A’s need rotation help. They’re not winning a free agent bidding war for Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel and they’re probably not going to empty the farm system for James Paxton or Corey Kluber. Gray might be their best hope to acquire a potential impact starter. Oakland certainly knows Sonny and I’ve heard they asked about him at the trade deadline, but the Yankees weren’t ready to move on. There’s a fit now. Definitely.

As for the Reds, they don’t seem to make sense as a trade partner on the surface. The A’s won 97 games this past season and could contend next year. The Reds lost 95 games this past season and aren’t a move or two away from making a run at the NL Central title. Trading for one year of Sonny Gray doesn’t seem to fit the long-term plan, but GM Dick Williams recently said he wants to add two pitchers and he’s ready to be aggressive.

“I think we need to add two pitchers,” said Williams during a recent radio interview according to Bobby Nightengale. “I think this year we feel like we need to be a little more aggressive than (sitting back and waiting for bargains late in the offseason). By no means does it mean you can make sure you get a deal done but you have to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.”

The Reds definitely need rotation help and they may see Gray as an opportunity to add a just turned 29-year-old with upside that they may be able to sign long-term. Also, their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. Johnson left the Brewers for the Reds a few weeks ago, so there’s a connection there. The Reds have some added insight into Gray. Trading for one year of Gray may seem weird, but it’s not the craziest thing in the world.

2. Tomorrow may be a “soft” deadline. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have two open 40-man spots right now and no significant prospects to protect. Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley were added to the 40-man during the season. Erik Swanson, Kyle Holder, and Nick Green are the notables who could be protected tomorrow. Maybe there will be a surprise a la Jonathan Loaisiga last year.

If the Yankees need to clear 40-man space tomorrow I imagine Ben Heller, Hanser Alberto, and Kyle Higashioka are most at risk of losing their spots. The Yankees could also kill two birds with one stone with Gray. He’s getting traded at some point, we know that, and trading him before the roster deadline tomorrow gets the trade out of the way and also clears a 40-man roster spot for someone else. See? Nice and easy.

Except it’s probably not that simple. There’s a decent chance the Yankees will get a 40-man roster player back in the inevitable Gray trade, so it’s hardly a lock a trade opens a roster spot. The Yankees have to get the best talent back regardless of roster status. They shouldn’t take non-40-man roster players in return just to make the 40-man situation easier. Trading Sonny won’t necessary open a 40-man spot.

That said, it takes two to tango, and the teams that want Gray may have some players on the 40-man roster bubble they want to move. It could be a player they’re considering cutting to clear a 40-man spot or a player not on the 40-man who is Rule 5 Draft eligible. Did you catch the Aledmys Diaz trade over the weekend? The Blue Jays sent Diaz to the Astros for a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospect Houston was probably going to leave exposed. Something like that could play into the Gray trade. We’ll see.

3. The non-tender deadline probably doesn’t matter. Gray is projected to make $9.1M in 2019 and that’s a lot. More than I expected given his $6.5M salary in 2018. He has his career accomplishments to thank for that projected raise, not his 2018 performance. The non-tender deadline is next Friday, November 30th, and I suppose it’s possible the Yankees could non-tender Gray if they’re worried about getting stuck with his salary next year. That salary could create some headaches if they want to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that’s going to happen though. There seems to be enough trade interest in Sonny right now that, even if the Yankees don’t get a deal worked out by next Friday, they could hang on to Gray and feel confident in getting a trade done later in the offseason. Serious non-tender candidates rarely draw trade interest because teams know they can wait and scoop them up as free agents. That’s not the case with Gray. There’s real interest from multiple teams. Tomorrow’s 40-man roster deadline could push things along. I don’t think the non-tender deadline will. Sonny’s not getting non-tendered.

4. Hooray for a bidding war! The more teams involved, the better. Gray’s value isn’t sky high but I do think he’ll fetch a better return than you might think given his terrible season. He’s young, he’s healthy, he has a strong track record, and he pitched much better away from Yankee Stadium in 2018. The Reds and A’s are interested and I reckon other teams are as well. The more teams with interest, the better it is for the Yankees. It can help drive up the price.

What do the A’s and Reds have to offer, specifically? I’ve had a few people ask me about Gray for Scooter Gennett and I just can’t see that. Surely the Reds could do better than one year of a reclamation project starter for their All-Star second baseman, right? Cincinnati has some interesting bullpen arms (Amir Garrett, Cody Reed) who could fit. I’m not sure Oakland has any MLB players to entice the Yankees. That might have to be a Gray for prospects deal. Point is, at least two teams are involved, so there’s something of a bidding war. That is nothing but good news for the Yankees.

The Yankees Will Get A Better Haul for Sonny Gray Than You Think

November 10, 2018 by Bobby Montano

Brian Cashman, so the saying goes, is a ninja. The reputation is deserved: Yankee moves often materialize quickly and (from our perspective) out of nowhere. The organization as a whole rarely tips its hand with regard to its plans – an impressive feat considering the hyper-intense media environment in which it operates. That is why Cashman’s statements on Sonny Gray, which make it abundantly clear that the Yankees will trade him, have been so surprising.

Cashman’s candor began in earnest last August when he told Michael Kay that “if he winds up somewhere else pitching, he’s going to be pitching extremely well because the equipment is all there, the stuff is there, (but) consistently it’s not playing out right here.” Considering the fact that the Yankees were in the midst of a playoff push, this is about as honest as Cashman could be at the time without outright giving up on a member of the team.

This trend has continued since the end of the season. On October 12, just three days after the Yankees premature postseason exit, Cashman used his annual end-of-the-year press conference to once again make it clear that Gray is persona non grata. “To maximize his abilities,” Cashman said, “it would be more likely best [for him to be] somewhere else.”

As if that wasn’t straightforward enough, Cashman slammed Gray once again last week at the GM Meetings in Minneapolis. The Yankee GM told New York Post reporter Joel Sherman that the team is “going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx.”

Cashman’s uncharacteristic candor over Gray is certainly surprising, but there is another element of his statements worth exploring: the seeming belief that Sonny simply can’t make it work with the Yankees. Cashman made it a point in each of the above statements to emphasize that fact.

This suggests that the Yankees believe there is something to the statistics that show Sonny seemingly cannot pitch in Yankee Stadium beyond simple sample size noise. His home/away splits are downright remarkable, as Dominic mentioned in his excellent review of Gray’s season a few weeks ago. Gray pitched to a 3.17 ERA on the road and a 6.98 ERA at home – and those trends were present in 2017 too.

This also suggests that Cashman is right when he expresses confidence that the team will find a compatible suitor for Sonny this offseason. If the Yankees believe that there is something about the organization and Sonny that isn’t compatible, other teams very well may as well. And if that’s the case, teams will see a pitcher with a proven track record of success – including in big postseason matchups – who, for whatever reason, couldn’t make it work with the Yankees. His age, track record as a starting pitcher and success away from Yankee Stadium create a buy-low package that many teams won’t pass up.

Think about it. If Sonny Gray had been a Cleveland Indian this year and had an identical season, many of us would want the Yankees to go after him. Furthermore, Cashman wouldn’t be so blunt about his intentions if he didn’t know there were interested teams out there.

Because the bulk of our familiarity with Sonny comes during his Yankee tenure, it can be easy to forget the track record that made so many of us excited when the team traded for him in 2017. That underlying record hasn’t changed, even if his value is obviously lower than it was then.

This is not to say that the Yankees will receive a huge haul for Sonny as it is to say that it will not be as meager as we might think. I can’t predict what a trade will look like – and even if I did, it would suck – but I do not think the Yankees are in a position where they will just dump Gray for scraps. He still has considerable upside, and some team will take a chance on him. And if Brian Cashman is to be believed, he’ll probably realize that upside– just not in pinstripes.

Hot Stove Rumors: Kluber, Carrasco, Paxton, Machado, Happ

November 6, 2018 by Mike

The GM Meetings are being held in Carlsbad, California this week and usually that means news — the Aaron Hicks trade went down at the GM Meetings — or at least some rumors and soundbites. “The Red Sox winning doesn’t change the hunger level of trying to deliver a championship for our fan base,” said Brian Cashman to Erik Boland yesterday. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees will talk Kluber, Carrasco with Indians

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees either will meet or have already met with the Indians today to discuss right-handers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland will reportedly listen to offers for their top veteran players this offseason because a) every team listens to offers for everyone, and b) they are a small budget team and they’re running out of money. Supposedly everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That doesn’t mean the Indians are giving their veterans away, but they do seem to be available.

Kluber (2.89 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 2018) and Carrasco (3.38 ERA and 2.94 FIP) are both excellent and signed affordably. Assuming their options are picked up, Kluber is owed $52.5M from 2019-21 and Carrasco is owed $19.25M from 2019-20. They’re both over 30 (Kluber turns 33 in April, Carrasco turns 32 in March), but they are exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees crave. Front of the rotation arms who rack up strikeouts and are on affordable contracts. I don’t see why the Indians would trade either Kluber or Carrasco without getting Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar (and more) in return. These aren’t guys you get for three or four prospects you don’t like.

Yankees interested in Paxton

In addition to Kluber and Carrasco, the Yankees also have interest in southpaw James Paxton, reports Heyman. The Mariners are reportedly considering a rebuild. They haven’t been to the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie season in 2001 — The Mariners have the longest active postseason drought in North American sports — despite spending a ton of money and gutting the farm system to make win-now trades in recent years. They’re at least considering a full teardown.

Paxton, who turns 30 today, threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 208 strikeouts this season. He is under control through 2020. For me, Paxton is clearly behind Kluber and Carrasco on the trade preference list. Those two are Plan A and Plan B (either order is arguable) and Paxton is Plan C. He has a very long injury history and I think the Mariners are going to demand an ace price for a guy who isn’t really an ace. Don’t get me wrong, Paxton’s quite good and would be a significant upgrade for the Yankees. I just prefer Kluber and Carrasco.

Yankees will check in on Machado

Despite being “lukewarm” about Manny Machado, the Yankees will check in on the free agent infielder, and their interest level depends on the asking price, reports Heyman. Cashman ducked the Machado question, as you’d expect. “I’m going to be engaging the entire landscape in the free agent market … We will make sure we check every box in terms of what’s available and the cost associated with what’s available in both marketplaces, free agency and trades,” he said to Brendan Kuty.

To sign Machado (or Bryce Harper), one of two things will have to happen. Either the Yankees will have to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, or they’ll have to shed salary elsewhere and go cheap on pitching. Only one of those two options makes sense for a team with New York’s revenues. There’s a very anti-Machado sentiment that exists right now and I totally get it after his postseason, but this is a 26-year-old infielder who hit .297/.367/.538 (141 wRC+) with 37 homers this season and is a true talent +6 WAR player. How often do you get a chance to acquire someone like that for just cash?

Yankees would like to re-sign Sabathia, Happ

The Yankees would like to re-sign CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, Cashman told Ronald Blum. “He’s been a great Yankee, and he has time on the clock still. I think he’d like to stay, and I think we’d like to keep him,” Cashman said about Sabathia. As for Happ, Cashman said: “I would think that there’ll be a lot of interest in him. He has a great reputation throughout the game as a pro, and the performance level was exactly what we needed. So he put himself in a good position as a free agent.”

For what it’s worth, Heyman says Happ and Patrick Corbin are the team’s two top pitching targets. That definitely passes the sniff test. Cashman mentioned yesterday the Yankees are looking to add multiple starters and they’ve reportedly been after Corbin for a while, and obviously they like Happ enough that they traded for him and started him in ALDS Game One. I do worry about Happ’s declining four-seam fastball spin rate, which is kind of a big deal for a guy who throws so many heaters, especially up in the zone. As for bringing Sabathia back, I am all for it. Get it done.

Cashman reiterates intention to trade Gray

Not surprisingly, Cashman reiterated his intention to trade Sonny Gray this offseason. He’s been very candid about this. “We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him, that are interested.”

I get the feeling Gray is either going to be traded very early in the offseason, as in within the next week or two, or very late, as in February or even after Spring Training begins. Don’t ask me why. Just a hunch. I still believe the Brewers are the most logical fit but man, who in the world knows? Gray was really good outside Yankee Stadium (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP) and he has a strong track record, so it would seem lots of teams would be interested in buying low. Then again, he was so bad this year that I wouldn’t be surprised if teams shy away. We’ll see. I think the Yankees will end up with a better than expected return for Sonny. Pitching is always in demand.

Sonny and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season [2018 Season Review]

November 2, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

This jersey might just be the high point of Gray’s season. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Way back in March, I had the privilege of writing the season preview for Sonny Gray. I did so with not so well-hidden glee, as I was all but certain that he would end up being a tremendous third starter for the Yankees. Take a look:

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

There was more than a bit of skepticism towards that stance, and the early returns this season made supporting Gray seem a fool’s errand. But, as Kurt Vonnegut wrote in The Sirens of Titan, “anybody who has traveled this far on a fool’s errand has no choice but to uphold the honor of fools by completing the errand.” And so I held out hope as bad starts mounted and trade winds swirled, appearing more and more foolish by the week.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the beginning.

The First Start

Gray exited his first start with some superficially tremendous numbers – notably a 2.25 ERA and 18.0 K/9. However, as was the case in his three months with the Yankees in 2018, his underlying numbers weren’t so hot. Gray only completed four innings due to an excessive pitch count (89), and he allowed seven hits and three walks along the way. He was pulled by Aaron Boone with one on and none out in the bottom of the fifth (an understandable and smart hook for the rookie manager), and was bailed out by Chad Green.

It’s difficult to take a great deal away from one start, but the walks and pitch count were endemic of the issues that made fans leery when he first donned pinstripes. And, as a fun bit of foreshadowing, here is where I’ll note that he threw just 6.74% four-seamers in that start – the lowest figure of his career.

The Frustration Sets In

In lieu of offering a start-by-start breakdown, I think that a simple list is all that you need to see in order to understand just how up-and-down Gray was this year. I won’t overload it with information, either – it’ll just be two numbers: innings pitched and runs allowed.

April 7 – 6.0 IP, 3 R
April 12 – 3.0 IP, 6 R
April 20 – 3.1 IP, 5 R
April 25 – 4.2 IP, 3 R
April 30 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 5 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 11 – 5.0 IP, 5 R
May 20 – 8.0 IP, 1 R
May 26 – 3.2 IP, 5 R
June 1 – 6.0 IP, 1 R
June 6 – 8.0 IP, 0 R
June 13 – 5.0 IP, 4 R
June 18 – 5.0 IP, 2 R
June 23 – 6.2 IP, 4 R
June 30 – 2.1 IP, 6 R
July 6 – 2.0 IP, 5 R
July 11 – 6.0 IP, 0 R
July 21 – 5.1 IP, 3 R
July 26 – 5.0 IP, 0 R
August 1 – 2.2 IP, 7 R

On August 2, it was announced that Gray would be moving to the bullpen in deference to the newly-acquired Lance Lynn, so this isn’t an arbitrary endpoint. This list simply ends when the Yankees grew tired of Gray’s inconsistency (and, in more plain terms, his 5.56 ERA through 21 starts).

In this stretch, Gray allowed 4+ runs nine times, and failed to finish the fifth inning seven times, which means he was putting pressure on the bullpen on both fronts. And every time he showed flashes of his old self (such as his outings on June 1 and June 6), he came crashing back to earth shortly thereafter.

Watching his first 21 starts felt almost sadistic, as he appeared out of sorts at all times. He couldn’t find the strike zone with any semblance of regularity, and when he did it always seemed to be thrown right down the middle. That has a degree of hyperbole to it, to be sure – but his 9.9% walk rate and 14.1% HR/FB suggest that it rings at least a bit true. The fact that he averaged 85 pitches per start despite average fewer than 5 IP speaks to that, as well.

A Reasonably Productive Closing Stretch

Gray made his first relief appearance in extra innings against the White Sox on August 7 – and it was a good one. He tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just two base-runners, while striking out four, and picked up the win.

He served as a swingman/long-man/long reliever from that point forward, and was more good than bad. Sure, he had two rough outings (including allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an inning on August 12), but he finished out the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final nine appearances (26.2 IP). That included two spot-starts, which are a perfect exemplification of his season – 6.1 scoreless innings against the Orioles on August 25, and seven base-runners and three runs in three innings against the Twins on September 11.

Gray finished the season with a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP in 130.1 IP. It wasn’t his worst season – that distinction belongs to his injury-riddled 2016 – but his 9.8% walk rate was the worst of his career, as was his 50.0% groundball rate.

What Went Wrong?

Yankee Stadium, for one. Take a look:

Home – 59.1 IP, 78 H, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 5.98 FIP
Road – 71.0 IP, 60 H, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Gray was all but unplayable in the Bronx, but he was a borderline ace on the road. There’s some noise in smaller sample sizes of this nature, of course – but this is basically just a more extreme version of how he performed with the Yankees in 2017. Interestingly enough, Gray’s two best and two worst starts came at home; make of that what you will.

And, as I mentioned earlier, Gray’s four-seam usage went way down with the anti-fastball Yankees:

That trend started last year once he was acquired, and it continued this year. Gray threw just over 25% four-seamers this year, after being over 30% in each of his previous five seasons. That difference was made up for with his curveball usage, and that pitch was mediocre at-best; his slider, which is usually his best pitch, didn’t see that sort of uptick. It was a forced evolution, of sorts, and it was not effective.

What’s Next?

Gray has one year of arbitration eligibility left, and MLBTR projects a $9.1 MM salary. That is almost certainly moot, though, as Brian Cashman has indicated that Gray will be traded this off-season. So the only real question is who the Yankees can get in return.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So long, Sonny.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

October 16, 2018 by Mike

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

Last week Matt Swartz released his 2019 salary arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors. There are always exceptions, but Matt’s system is very accurate overall. These aren’t “in the ballpark” numbers. These tend to be close to dead on. Here is the Yanks’ arbitration class and their projected 2019 salaries:

Didi Gregorius: $12.4M (fourth time eligible as a Super Two)
Sonny Gray: $9.1M (third time)
Dellin Betances: $6.4M (third time)
Aaron Hicks: $6.2M (third time)
Luis Severino: $5.1M (first time as a Super Two)
Austin Romine: $2.0M (third time)
Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M (second time as a Super Two)
Greg Bird: $1.5M (first time)
Ronald Torreyes: $900K (first time as a Super Two)

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.
Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.
As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.
Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M
Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M
Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M
Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M
Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

End of the Year Thoughts

October 14, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

By the end of today, we’ll have made it five days without Yankee baseball happening or to even look forward to. It’s a long way till February and with the LCS’s going on and the World Series on the horizon, it feels even longer. To keep you warm–or cold, depending on how much you’ve recovered from the abrupt end to the season–here are some thoughts.

A Fitting End

The end of the Yankees’ season felt a little bit like the season itself. All year, this was a very good team; it won 100 games, despite what browsing Twitter might make you think. But given the great success and the home run record, the Red Sox had and moments of frustration, it seemed like this team was just one step shy of great. Game three’s disaster aside, the Yankees were close (or winning re: game two) in their losses, and had chances to win, to be great. At times this year, the team was great and probably will be going forward. While this year ended with disappointment, it wasn’t a failure by any means. Next year, however, the expectations should be ramped up a bit more. An ALDS loss in 2019 would be way more disappointing than it was this year.

Sonny Gone Gray

Before this year started, I thought Sonny Gray was going to have a big year. He had some good peripherals in his time as a Yankee in 2017 and he had–still has–great talent. But this year, it just never happened. Any time it looked like he was going to get on a roll, he fell flat on his face again. Despite how hard I rooted for him, I don’t think I’ve ever been more wrong about a player than I was about Sonny Gray in 2018.

During the year-end press conference, GM Brian Cashman didn’t do much to obscure the fact that the Yankees are going to look for trades involving Gray, which is too bad. Sonny seems like a really good guy and took his lumps this year without much noise.

Looking back, it seems that the trade to bring Gray to New York isn’t really working out for anyone, unless Dustin Fowler really turns it on in 2019. Even then, this was a smart trade to make and I’m glad the Yankees did. The process was good even if the results haven’t been. I want to say haven’t been ‘yet,’ still hopeful for some value from Gray, but it doesn’t look like that’s ever gonna happen. A trade is likely the right thing to do here, even if the Yankees don’t get an exact match on value.

Fantasy Roster

With the news of Didi Gregorius’ impending Tommy John Surgery, we all got a little sad. Then, our minds began to wander towards Manny Machado for obvious reasons. The fact that the Yankees are back in a position to spend big also helped that fantasizing, which led to more and more fantasies, like Bryce Harper. I’m on record as saying I’m skeptical that the Yankees will spend big again, but after narrowly missing the World Series in 2017 and getting eliminated early this year, hopefully they pull a 2008-2009 and push themselves over the edge. I let my mind run a little wild with the possibilities and came up with this roster-bated squad that would start the year in Didi’s absence:

C: Gary Sanchez

1B: Miguel Andujar

2B: Jed Lowrie

3B: Manny Machado

SS: Gleyber Torres

LF: Bryce Harper

CF: Aaron Hicks

RF: Aaron Judge

DH: Giancarlo Stanton

BN: Austin Romine, Clint Frazier, Ronald Torreyes, Luke Voit or Greg Bird

SP: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Patrick Corbin, JA Happ, CC Sabathia

RP: Dellin Betances, Chad Green, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Tarpley

CP: Aroldis Chapman

To quote Doctors Jan Itor and Chris Turk, not gonna happen. The chances that the Yankees sign seven free agents (counting CC + Happ + Robertson) is pretty slim, even if they do have bucks to throw around. Additionally, there would definitely be a roster crunch when Didi returned, and I doubt Jed Lowrie would settle for what would be a supersub role come the second half, unless he were paid exorbitantly. Were this to happen, though, you’d put Gleyber back at second, Didi at short, and Lowrie would take Toe’s spot on the bench.

Again, something this drastic won’t happen, but it’d be a lot cooler if it did.