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The Reds are still after Sonny Gray and the Yanks reportedly have interest in some young arms

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(Presswire)

It is January 14th and Sonny Gray is still a New York Yankee. He’s been on the trade block all winter, and, at one point, as many as eleven teams were in on him. The Yankees reportedly whittled that list down to the best possible suitors, but once CC Sabathia had his heart procedure, trade talks slowed. Gray could be necessary rotation depth.

Interest in Gray persists, however. Jon Heyman reports the Reds are still after Sonny despite reports to the contrary earlier this offseason. A few weeks ago Cincinnati was said to be fading out of the picture after acquiring one-year rentals Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. The reasoning was they wouldn’t want to give up more prospects for another one-year rental.

That said, Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, so there is a connection in place. And besides, the Reds could use more rotation help. In the deep NL Central, they’re going to need more than Roark, Wood, Yasiel Puig, and Matt Kemp to have a shot at contention. A few thoughts on this Grays/Reds stuff.

1. The Yankees apparently want pitching prospects now. Earlier this winter the Yankees reportedly asked the Reds for outfielder and top prospect Taylor Trammell in Gray trade talks. That was never going to happen, but hey, you can’t get what you don’t ask for, you know? Start with a high asking price, and if the other team doesn’t blink, adjust down. That’s what happened here.

Heyman says the Yankees are now focusing on upper level pitching prospects in talks with the Reds, specifically right-handers Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Keury Mella. MLB.com ranks Santillan as the fifth best prospect in Cincinnati’s system, Gutierrez the eighth best, and Mella the 11th best. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks Santillan and Gutierrez fifth and ninth best, respectively, with Mella outside the top ten.

As the rankings suggest, the 21-year-old Santillan is the best prospect of the bunch. He managed a 3.08 ERA (3.69 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 6.0% walks in 149 innings at High-A and Double-A last season. Here’s a snippet of the Baseball America scouting report:

His plus-plus fastball sits 94-98 mph with late life. It can be a heavy fastball that is difficult for hitters to square up. He works off his fastball with a future plus slider that has good plane and tight break, though it morphs into a cutter at times. While his firm 85-88 mph changeup lags behind the other two offerings, he does show some feel for it and throws it with deception and fade … (Important) control is important for him to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

A physically large (6-foot-3 and 240 lbs.) righty with a huge fastball? Yeah, sounds like someone up the Yankees’ alley. Gutierrez, 23, had a 4.35 ERA (4.09 FIP) with 23.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 147 Double-A innings last year. Baseball America calls him a potential back-end starter. The 25-year-old Mella has been an up-and-down guy the last two years. He’s a fading prospect with a fastball/slider combo that probably fits best in the bullpen. Mella is Cincinnati’s Chance Adams, kinda.

Anyway, the Yankees were never going to get a top prospect like Trammell for Gray. Now they’re apparently targeting the next best thing, which is upper level pitching depth. They have a ton of lower level pitching prospects and they’re largely set on upper level positions. There’s no such thing as too much pitching though, so that’s where they’re looking. They asked for Trammell, the Reds said no, and now the Yankees have lowered the asking price. It is the natural order of negotiations.

Mella. (Getty)

2. The Yankees say they’re willing to keep Gray. But I don’t believe them. Not based on the way they’ve been talking about him the last few weeks and the palpable frustration that was evident every time he was discussed last season. The Yankees tried everything. They gave Gray his personal catcher, they changed his pitch selection, they changed his role. Nothing worked. The Yankees are ready to move on. It’s best for everyone, really.

Because of that, I don’t think the Yankees are serious about keeping Gray. They’ve determined he can not succeed in his current environment, and if that is true, then he’s not really rotation depth, is he? If the expectation is a 5.00 ERA going forward, well, you can find that for cheap in free agency. Francisco Liriano, Jason Hammel, and Josh Tomlin all strike me as swingman types who can be had on the cheap. I think the Yankees are done with Gray. All that talk about keeping him following Sabathia’s procedure was just an attempt to create leverage.

3. Gray is quite a bit cheaper than expected. I had a feeling this would happen. Gray’s 2019 salary is considerably lower than projected. MLBTR projected a $9.1M salary. Sonny signed for $7.5M. For the Yankees, that $1.6M difference is less than 1% of their projected payroll. It’s still $1.6M in real money, and for a team with a projected $110M payroll like the Reds, that’s quite a bit of cash. Gray’s below projected salary makes him more affordable to everyone. The Yankees if they keep him and interested trade partners if they deal him.

4. The Yankees are already over the luxury tax threshold. And this could mean one of two things. One, the Yankees will say screw it and keep spending. Maybe not Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Adam Ottavino or another reliever. Or two, the Yankees could now be operating under a mandate to reduce the luxury tax penalty as much as possible, thus making a Gray trade a necessity. My hunch is the reality is somewhere in the middle.

My quick math has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $219.5M, assuming Luis Severino wins in his arbitration hearing. That doesn’t leave much wiggle room under the $226M second luxury tax tier, the tier that kicks in a surtax and moves their top 2020 draft pick back. Perhaps the Yankees are willing to blow by that $226M threshold. Would be cool. If not, trading Gray will be a prerequisite to doing anything further because a guy like Ottavino ain’t taking $5M per year.

* * *

Trading Gray for salary relief and an upper level pitching prospect or two would be a pretty good outcome in my opinion. Sonny’s value is down, there’s no doubt about that, but it is not zero. Personally, I’d be cool with keeping him as a swingman/spot starter. I don’t think the Yankees are okay with that though. They seem ready to move on. Whether it’s the Reds or another team, it still feels like only a matter of time until Gray is moved, even if things are dragging on longer than expected.

2019 Salary Arbitration Filing Day Updates

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Sir Didi & Hicks. (Presswire)

Today is an important date on the offseason calendar. Today is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures with the league. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2019. The team files what they believe the player should be paid in 2019. Pretty straightforward, right? There is a lot of money on the line today around the league.

Most arbitration-eligible players will agree to 2019 contracts today. Only a handful will actually file salary figures. The two sides can still work out a contract of any size even after filing salary figures, but most teams employ a “file and trial” approach, meaning once they file numbers, they cut off contract talks and go to an arbitration hearing. That’s designed to put pressure on the player to sign.

If the two sides do go to a hearing, they will each defend their filing number and state their case to the three-person panel. It can get ugly. Jeff Passan says the Red Sox played a Kris Bryant highlight video during their hearing with Mookie Betts last year to show the panel Betts is not as good as Bryant, and didn’t deserve a similar salary. Ouch. (It didn’t work. Betts won.) The panel will ultimately pick either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed. Nothing in between.

The Yankees have a massive arbitration class this season. Not only do they have nine arbitration-eligible players, those nine players combine for over $50M in projected salary in 2019. Last year’s nine-player arbitration class ran only $29.2525M in actual salary. This year’s arbitration class could come close to doubling that. Arbitration-eligible players could chew up more than a quarter of the $206M luxury tax threshold.

Unless something unexpected happens, like a long-term extension, we’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related arbitration news right here in this one post. The Didi Gregorius situation is the important one to watch. Here are this year’s arbitration-eligible Yankees and their projected salaries, via MLBTR:

Service Time (years.days) MLBTR Projection Actual 2019 Salary
Didi Gregorius 5.159 $12.4M $11.75M
Dellin Betances 5.078 $6.4M $7.25M
Sonny Gray 5.061 $9.1M $7.5M
Austin Romine 5.045 $2M $1.8M
Aaron Hicks 5.041 $6.2M $6M
James Paxton 4.151 $9M $8.575M
Tommy Kahnle 3.131 $1.5M $1.3875
Greg Bird 3.053 $1.5M $1.2M
Luis Severino 2.170 $5.1M Filed
Total $53.2M $45.4625M

As a reminder, players with 0-3 years of service time are pre-arbitration-eligible and teams can pay them pretty much whatever they want. Players with 3-6 years of service time are arbitration-eligible. (Severino is a Super Two and will be arbitration four times instead of the usual three. Here’s a Super Two primer.) Players with more than six years of service time are eligible for free agency.

The Yankees have been to one arbitration hearing in the last ten years (Betances in 2017), and, for the most part, they get their players signed before the filing deadline. They have had a few negotiations continue beyond the filing deadline, most notably Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Generally speaking though, the Yankees get their guys signed before the salary filing deadline. They’ll be busy today given their sizeable arbitration class.

It’s worth noting one-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players are not guaranteed. These players can be released in Spring Training and owed only 30 days or 45 days termination pay, depending on the exact date of the release. Chances are none of them will get released in camp. It doesn’t happen often. Kahnle seems most at risk of a Spring Training release should he show up to Tampa with his velocity still missing.

Anyway, the salary figure filing deadline is 1pm ET but news is going to trickle in through the day. The Yankees tend to announce everything all at once at the end of the business day, so official confirmation is still a few hours away. Here’s the latest contract news for arbitration-eligible Yankees. Check back throughout the day for updates.

12:00pm ET: According to Bob Nightengale, the Yankees and Bird have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.2M. Bird has played in only 130 of 486 possible games the last three seasons, though he was accruing service time while on the Major League disabled list, so he’s arbitration-eligible.

12:00pm ET: Romine and the Yankees have agreed to a $1.8M salary for 2019, reports Nightengale. Thus far both signings come in a tick below the MLBTR projection. Probably just a coincidence, but, given the state of free agency, I can’t help but wonder if teams are putting the squeeze are arbitration-eligible players too.

12:57pm ET: Hicks gets a $6M salary for the coming season, according to Nightengale. Another below projection number. Hmmm. The big question now: Will the Yankees and Hicks discuss a long-term extension at some point, or is this it until he becomes a free agent after the season?

4:12pm ET: Jeff Passan reports the Yankees and Luis Severino did not agree to a contract before the 1pm ET deadline. They’re expected to go to an arbitration hearing. No word on their salary filing figures yet. Those will come out eventually.

5:25pm ET: The Yankees and Betances agreed to a one-year deal at $7.25M, reports Sweeny Murti. That is well-above the MLBTR projection. Good for Dellin. Of course, the Yanks beat him in arbitration a few years ago, so his salary is lower than what it could’ve been.

5:52pm ET: The Yankees have agreed to one-year contracts with all their arbitration-eligible players except Severino, the team announced. We’re still waiting on Severino’s filing numbers as well as salary numbers for Gregorius, Paxton, Gray, and Kahnle.

9:55pm ET: Ron Blum says Gregorius received $11.75M, Paxton received $8.575M, and Gray received $7.5M. So much for the Yankees getting Gregorius at a discount while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Also, Severino filed for $5.25M while the Yankees countered with $4.4M. Arbitration hearings will take place in February. Still no word on Kahnle’s salary.

Saturday, 10:12am ET: Blum’s story has been updated to include Kahnle’s salary. He gets $1,387,500. Seven of the eight arbitration-eligible Yankees who signed yesterday signed below their MLBTR projection, with Betances the lone exception. Those eight players combine for $45.4625M in salary, so, even if Severino wins his hearing, this year’s class comes in at roughly $2.5M below the projection.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Andujar, Gray, Padres, Tulowitzki

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Machado. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty)

As usual, the hot stove league has ground to a halt in January, except in the past it happened because all the top free agents had signed. Nowadays it’s because no teams want to spend money. Have we reached the point where signing free agents is a market inefficiency? Possibly! Anyway, earlier today we discussed the Yankees’ continued interest in Adam Ottavino. Now here’s the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have not made Machado a “concrete” offer

Here we go again with the “they haven’t made an offer yet” stuff. According to Ken Davidoff, the Yankees have not yet made a “concrete” offer to Manny Machado. For what it’s worth, Bob Nightengale reported the White Sox made Machado a formal offer last week, and Jim Salisbury says the Phillies are still negotiating with Machado, which indicates no offer has been made. Davidoff says the Yankees and Dan Lozano, Machado’s agent, are not far along enough in talks to make a formal offer.

The offer stuff gets overplayed every offseason. The important thing is the two sides are talking. Should they get to a point where they’re close on money, the Yankees will put a piece of paper in front of Machado (they’ll send an electronic document to his iPad, really) and move forward. I mean, does anyone really think the Yankees will lose out on Machado simply because the White Sox have a formal offer in front of him and the Yankees don’t? If Machado wants to be a Yankee, they’ll work out the contract terms, and he’ll wait on the offer.

Yankees not seriously shopping Andujar

According to Davidoff, the Yankees are not seriously shopping Miguel Andujar. It has been reported throughout the offseason that the Yankees are open to trading him. Both of those things can be true. The Yankees can be open to trading Andujar — I’m certain they’re open to trading a lot of players should the right offer come along — without actively shopping him and pushing him in trade talks.

Also, keep in mind these things can change in a hurry. If the Yankees manage to sign Machado, they could turn right around and begin to push Andujar in trade talks in an effort to address other needs. I don’t love that idea — the more high-end bats the better, and the Yankees could easily make room for Machado and Andujar on the roster — but it is a viable option. Overall, there is too much “trade Andujar” talk for my liking. He’s really good! The Yankees should be keeping really good young players, even if they are flawed.

Padres still after Gray

The last Sonny Gray non-update: Jon Morosi reports the Padres still have interest in acquiring Gray. Brian Cashman walked back his repeated “we’re going to trade him” comments last week on account of CC Sabathia’s angioplasty. Cashman said the Yankees slowed down their Gray talks following Sabathia’s procedure because the team wants to make sure they’re covered. Sabathia has follow-up exams coming that will clarify his status.

Sabathia’s condition certainly changed the equation, but clearly, the Yankees did not consider Gray a viable rotation option earlier this offseason, and nothing’s really changed on his end. He’s the same old Sonny Gray. If the Yankees didn’t consider him a rotation option before, they shouldn’t consider him one now. I suspect the talk about holding onto him following Sabathia’s procedure is just that, talk. I expect the Yankees to continue pushing Gray in trade talks and likely move him before Spring Training, regardless of Sabathia’s condition. They’d find a depth starter elsewhere.

Tulowitzki has full no-trade clause

Sixteen teams were interested in Troy Tulowitzki following his workout last month, and, to bring him to the Bronx, the Yankees gave Tulowitzki a full no-trade clause, reports Jon Heyman. This is largely inconsequential. First of all, it is unlikely Tulowitzki plays his way into any real trade value. Secondly, if Tulowitzki does play well enough to have real trade value, the Yankees would probably want to keep him because depth is cool. Need it to contend.

And third, Tulowitzki will make the $555,000 league minimum. If he’s that much of a roster clog and he’s unwilling to accept a trade, the Yankees could just release him and eat the money. Doing that with a player making $10M is a tough pill to swallow. The league minimum? No, who cares. The no-trade clause gives Tulowitzki some peace of mind and comes at no real cost to the Yankees. His low salary makes it easy to dump him should a roster spot be required.

Sabathia’s heart condition has allowed the Yankees to walk back their Sonny Gray comments

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(NY Post)

Spring Training is five weeks and one day away and, rather surprisingly, Sonny Gray is still a Yankee. The Yankees and Brian Cashman have made it crystal clear they want to trade Gray. That was the case even before they filled out the rotation with James Paxton, J.A. Happ, and CC Sabathia over the last few weeks. The Yankees proceeded this winter as if Gray were a non-factor.

“I’m not pounding on Sonny Gray,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch late last week when asked about his Gray comments. “I’m just answering everybody’s questions in the media, but sometimes people take it as a perceived (slight) that I’m piling on. No, I’ve been fully transparent with Sonny first and foremost, and with members of the media so they can communicate properly to our fan base.”

Two weeks ago I said there are three possible reasons why Sonny has not yet been traded. Either the Yankees haven’t found the right trade, they’ve had a change of heart and want to keep him, or Cashman’s public comments have backfired and no one wants Gray. Last week Cashman doubled down (quadrupled down at this point, really) on wanting to trade Sonny, but added Sabathia’s heart condition has changed the equation.

“Our intention is to move Sonny Gray and relocate him when we get the proper return, in our estimation. It’ll happen this winter, it’ll happen in the spring, or it’ll happen sometime during the season,” Cashman said to Hoch and Ron Blum. “… The CC thing, certainly when it developed it slowed down my conversations with intent because we have to see how this played out first. And so once he has these follow-up appointments, I’ll be in a much better position to either fully engage moving forward the Sonny Gray conversations that we’ve had, or continue to slow walk it while we make sure that CC is taken care of health-wise first and foremost.”

On one hand, wanting to keep Gray as rotation insurance following Sabathia’s angioplasty makes sense. I am okay with carrying Sonny into Spring Training even though he stunk last season. On the other hand, Cashman has made it pretty clear the Yankees don’t believe Sonny can succeed in New York, and if that is truly the case, what kind of rotation insurance is he, really? Has anything changed other than Sabathia’s condition? Two quick thoughts on this.

1. The Yankees kinda sorta have more leverage now. In a very screwed up way Sabathia’s heart condition gives the Yankees increased leverage in trade talks because keeping Gray is more viable. After filling up the rotation, it was clear the Yankees had little use for (or little desire to keep) him, so why would teams come forward with great offers? Now the Yankees keeping Gray is much more believable because they need protection against Sabathia.

2. Waiting too long can be costly. Patience is generally a good thing but there is an inflection point where it becomes counterproductive. Eventually teams turn their attention elsewhere. The Reds, for example, are said to have faded out of the Gray picture because they acquired Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. There are still a lot — a lot — of free agents out there. At some point other Gray suitors (Brewers, Padres, etc.) will turn their attention elsewhere, especially since Sonny only has the one year of team control. He’s not a long-term buy.

The obvious caveat here is that starting pitching is always and forever in demand. There are 150 rotation spots around baseball but there are not 150 better starting pitchers than Gray, and of course injuries open rotation spots all the time. Some team will lose a starter to injury in Spring Training and it could spark interest in Gray. Hey, maybe the Yankees will lose a starter to injury and decide keeping Sonny is their best option going forward. It’s possible!

I think this is most likely what happened: The Yankees came into the offseason fully intending to trade Gray, offers weren’t great at the outset and we’re getting any better, then Sabathia had his angioplasty and allowed Cashman to walk back his comments a bit. Keeping Gray made little sense a few weeks ago and other teams knew it. Now keeping him is justifiable. The Yankees want protection for that fifth starter’s spot.

By all accounts Sabathia is doing well following his heart procedure and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. The Yankees will take it easy on him in camp because they always take it easy on him in camp — Sabathia’s  made two Grapefruit League road starts since 2014 and he does most of his work in simulated games nowadays — and also because they’ll want to make sure his heart is healthy. There are bigger concerns than baseball here.

While keeping Gray makes more sense now than it did a month ago, I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to trade him if the right offer comes along. What is that right offer? I’m not sure how the Yankees value Sonny, but I think they’d trade him for that right offer in an instant, and find a sixth starter elsewhere. Will that sixth starter offer the same upside as Gray? Not likely. Will that sixth starter cost upwards of $9M like Gray? Almost certainly not.

The Sonny Gray situation has been unusual from the start because Cashman’s been so public about trading him. I don’t ever remember a general manager announcing his intentions to trade a player like this. And the longer this has dragged on, the weirder it’s become. As poorly as he pitched last year, keeping Gray is not unreasonable, and that was true before Sabathia’s heart issue. Now that Sabathia is more of a question, Cashman can tell other teams he wants to keep Sonny and have it actually be believable. That wasn’t the case earlier this offseason.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Britton, Gray, Profar

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(Harry How/Getty)

I don’t self-promote often, but I am going to do my civic duty and link to my CBS post ranking the top 50 players in baseball five years from now. Who’s No. 1? You probably already know! Anyway, there’s that. Now here are the latest offseason rumblings as the hot stove continues to run cold.

Machado’s agent is “barely engaging” teams

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper appear close to signing, and in fact Machado’s agent Dan Lozano is “barely engaging” teams right now. He’s remaining patient and waiting for either an interested team to up their offer, or another team to jump into the mix. These things can change in a hurry, but, right now, it doesn’t sound like Machado is close to picking a team. His market is reportedly down to the Yankees, Phillies, and White Sox.

Earlier this week I said it seems Machado is holding up the rest of the offseason. My thinking was that, once he signs, interest in Harper will pick up, and teams that miss out on Machado will begin to look at other free agents. That was probably overly optimistic on my part. It reminds me of last offseason when we were all saying things would pick up once Shohei Ohtani signed and Giancarlo Stanton was traded. It never really happened. When a 26-year-old on a Hall of Fame track doesn’t have teams falling all over themselves to sign him, you know baseball is broken.

Yankees now “focused” on Britton

With David Robertson having signed with the Phillies, the Yankees are now “focused” on re-signing Zach Britton, report Jon Heyman and Brendan Kuty. Other teams are involved and Jayson Stark says Britton and Scott Boras are holding out for a four-year contract. They’ll probably settle for a three-year deal (with an option?), which is still one year too long for my liking, but what I think doesn’t matter.

Britton turned 31 last month and he had a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) in 40.2 total innings after returning from Achilles surgery last year. He was at his best late in the season, as he got further away from the surgery, but he still wasn’t peak Orioles Zach Britton. The Yankees’ infield defense is pretty sketchy as currently constituted and that doesn’t seem to be a good fit for such a ground ball reliant pitcher. Strikeouts are the way to go.

Yankees, Braves, Rangers talked three-way trade with Gray, Profar

According to Jeff Passan, there was “traction” at one point on a three-way trade that would’ve sent Sonny Gray to the Braves and Jurickson Profar to the Yankees. Atlanta would’ve sent a prospect(s) to Texas. We heard the Yankees had interest in Profar and the Braves had interest in Gray earlier this winter, so that makes sense. Alas, the Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays. Texas received four prospects in the deal.

We’ll see what the Yankees get in the inevitable Gray trade, but I have a hard time thinking it’ll be better than Profar. He was my ideal Didi Gregorius replacement. Profar appears poised to finally take off and become one of the game’s top players. Of course, the Braves and Rangers had a say in this as well, and it sounds like the potential three-team trade fell apart because those clubs weren’t satisfied. So it goes. For what it’s worth (nothing), I acquired Profar in a three-team trade involving Gray in my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Loved him as Gregorius fill-in and super utility guy.

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

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Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

Sonny Gray is still a Yankee as 2019 approaches, and it could mean one of three things

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(Adam Glanzman/Getty)

Against all odds, Sonny Gray remains with the Yankees as New Years approaches. Brian Cashman all but shouted from the rooftops (multiple times, at that) that Gray would be traded this offseason, yet he’s still a Yankee, even after the team addressed their rotation needs with J.A. Happ, James Paxton, and CC Sabathia. I can’t say I expected Gray to still be with the team on December 26th.

There have been no shortage of Sonny Gray trade rumors this offseason. Here’s a quick recap of we’ve seen and heard about the veteran righty these last few weeks:

“As far as Sonny Gray, (we) continue to assess all options with him,” assistant GM Mike Fishman said the George King on the final day of the Winter Meetings. “There are various opportunities to consider, different types of deals that are being offered. We are weighing all our needs, both now and future needs and prospects and Major League pieces and what holes we can fill on the Major League roster.”

You needn’t try hard to see Gray as a strong bounceback candidate. His stuff is more than fine — his velocity and spin rates and everything else are as good as ever — and, since joining the Yankees, he has a 6.55 ERA (6.06 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Gray’s been an ace on the road and a disaster at home. Add in his age (29) and pre-Yankees track record and you’ve got a great buy-low candidate.

Despite all of that, meaning Cashman’s trade declarations and the eleven interested teams and Gray’s status as a buy-low player, Sonny remains with the Yankees. I honestly thought trading him would be one of the first moves the Yankees made this offseason. Instead, it’s shaping up to be one of the last. There are three possible reasons why Gray is still a Yankee.

1. They haven’t found the right deal. This seems most likely to me. The Yankees want to trade Gray — maybe not want to, but resigned to it at this point — but they’re not going to give him away either. They have a trade chip with legitimate value and they want to make sure they cash it in appropriately. So they’re taking their time. Spring Training is not for another seven weeks or so. What’s the rush?

2. They’re having second thoughts. Maybe keeping Gray as a swingman/sixth starter isn’t such a bad idea? There are reasons to keep him around. James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are known to visit the disabled list from time to time, CC Sabathia just had an angioplasty, and Jordan Montgomery is not due back until midseason. Yeah, he’s had issues at Yankee Stadium, but Gray is a viable MLB starter, and the Yankees may’ve decided he’s a better depth option than Domingo German or Luis Cessa or Chance Adams or whoever. And hey, the GM dumping on you all offseason could be a great motivator. Sonny will have a chip on his shoulder next year no matter what uniform he’s wearing.

3. They totally botched it. Cashman’s public declarations backfired and now teams are lowballing the Yankees. “You don’t want Gray and need to clear his projected $9.1M salary to do other stuff, so we’ll take him off your hands, but we’re not giving you much in return.” That sorta thing. Definitely possible! I don’t think this is the case though. Too many teams are involved and there seems to be something of a bidding war. That’s why Cashman made those comments about Gray. Because he knew plenty of teams would want him anyway. He wouldn’t have said those things otherwise.

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I didn’t expect Gray to still be a Yankee on December 26th but I do still believe he’s going to traded at some point. It seems like they’ve reached the point of no return. The frustration was almost palpable every time Cashman, Aaron Boone, and Larry Rothschild were asked about Gray this past season. They’ve tried to get him straightened out and it hasn’t happened, and they seem ready to move on.

Coming into the offseason, I thought the Brewers were the best trade match for Gray. Now it seems things have shifted to the Reds. They recently picked up two rental starters in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, and their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, which can’t hurt. Cincinnati is going for it — I commend them that for that, even if they are only going from 67 wins to 82 wins or whatever — and Sonny could be their next target.

No matter where he winds up, it still seems inevitable the Yankees will trade Sonny Gray at some point before Spring Training. The relationship appears to be beyond repair. I’m just not sure anyone thought it would take that long. It could be the Yankees screwed it up with their public comments, or it could be they’ve decided to keep him. Most likely, they’re just taking their time and making sure they get the best deal since there’s no reason to rush at this point of the offseason.