Archive for Stephen Drew
The Yankees now know, for certain, that Alex Rodriguez will not be available to them this coming season. Arbitrator Fredric Horowitz officially reduced A-Rod‘s suspension from 211 games to 162 games yesterday, but make no mistake, it was a huge win for MLB. They wanted Alex out of the game for the year and that’s what they got. The Yankees now have an extra $25M or so to spend but they also need a new third baseman.
With the ruling now handed down, the team will likely begin looking for a third base replacement in earnest. Here’s the latest on the hot corner situation courtesy of Anthony McCarron, Andrew Marchand, and Dan Martin:
- The Yankees continue to mull a reunion with Mark Reynolds, but they are only offering a minor league contract at this time. Such an agreement has been dubbed “unlikely.”
- Michael Young is also being considered and the two sides have been talking. It is “too early to tell” if anything will come from it, however. The Yankees tried to acquire Young at the trade deadline.
- The Yankees remain uninterested in Stephen Drew for whatever reason. Brian Cashman said they won’t be signing him last week. Drew has never played a position other than shortstop as a pro.
- Cashman said the team does not view Brendan Ryan or Eduardo Nunez as third base options, thankfully. Kelly Johnson is an option but his experience at the position is limited (16 games, all last year).
Via Peter Gammons: Brian Cashman said yesterday that the Yankees will not sign Stephen Drew. The free agent infielder is said to be “awaiting some further Yankee clarity” before signing a new contract, likely meaning he wants to see if they’ll make an offer should Alex Rodriguez be suspended. If nothing else, it would give him some negotiating leverage against the Red Sox.
Drew, 30, hit .253/.333/.443 (109 wRC+) with 13 homers this past summer, includes a .284/.377/.498 (137 wRC+) line against righties. Everything you need to know about him is in the Scouting The Market post. Thanks to injuries and looming suspensions, the Yankees have questions at all four infield spots. Adding another infielder is a must if A-Rod is suspended, and, really, they should look to add one even if his ban is overturned. Drew is by far the best available free agent infielder.
The Yankees came into the winter needing some middle infield depth, and that need became even greater when Robinson Cano bolted for the Mariners. They’ve already signed Brendan Ryan, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts, but with Derek Jeter a question mark and Alex Rodriguez a complete unknown, adding more is not in any way a bad idea.
Over the weekend we heard free agent shortstop Stephen Drew is “awaiting some further Yankee clarity” before signing a new contract, which (to me) means he wants to see if New York will make a big offer should A-Rod be suspended (they’ve already shown interest this winter). Makes sense even if he only wants to create leverage against the Red Sox, who have interest in re-signing him. The Mets are also said to be kicking the tires. Does Drew fit what the Yankees need with Ryan, Johnson, and Roberts already on board? Let’s look.
- Drew, 30, rebounded from a terrible 2012 season to hit .253/.333/.443 (109 wRC+) with 13 homeruns this past summer. That includes a .284/.377/.498 (137 wRC+) line against righties.
- As a pull-happy left-handed hitter who hits a lot of balls in the air (spray chart), Drew stands to benefit quite a bit from Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch. He’s averaged 16 homers per 162 games in his career anyway.
- Drew is a patient hitter who saw 4.09 pitches per plate appearance in 2013 (4.10 from 2011-2013) with a 10.8% walk rate (10.3% from 2011-2013). Lefty power and patience is the Yankees’ blueprint.
- Although he won’t be confused for Jose Reyes, Drew is useful on the bases. He went a perfect 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts in 2013 (40-for-55 career), and he’s taken the extra-base about 36% of time the last three years, which is roughly league average.
- Drew will strike out quite a bit (24.8% in 2013 and 23.2% from 2011-2013) and he can’t hit lefties. He had a .196/.246/.340 (53 wRC+) against southpaws this past season and a 59 wRC+ against lefties over the last three years.
- The various defensive stats say Drew has been below-average to average in the field these last three years: +3 UZR, -6 DRS, -9 FRAA, and -9 Total Zone. He has never played a position other than shortstop in his career, Majors or minors.
- Injuries have been a problem in recent years. Most notably, Drew destroyed his right ankle (broken bones and torn ligaments) when he caught a spike sliding into home plate in 2011. He has also missed time with hamstring (2009 and 2013) and concussion (2013) issues.
- Drew rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so whichever team signs him will have to forfeit a high draft pick.
The numbers say what the numbers say, but I don’t think the defensive stats match up with Drew’s glovework at short. The ankle injury, which sapped his speed and mobility for a while, could be the cause of that. I thought Drew was very good in the field this past season and particularly in the postseason. He’s not Brendan Ryan but he certainly stood out as above-average in my opinion.
It’s important to remember that Drew turned down more money from the Yankees to sign with the Red Sox last winter because of the uncertain playing time. He didn’t like the idea of bouncing between infield spots depending on who was healthy and who needed a day off. Those same questions exist now, maybe even moreso given the team’s other additions this winter. There is a clear path to being the team’s everyday shortstop relatively soon, however. Within a year I think.
The Yankees are reportedly seeking a right-handed hitting infielder and that makes sense. With Jeter a question mark following his self-proclaimed nightmare season, the team’s only reliable righty hitter is Alfonso Soriano. (Switch-hitter Mark Teixeira is still a question following wrist surgery and fellow switch-hitter Carlos Beltran has been just okay against lefties in recent years.) Drew is a really good player who would improve the team in both the short and long-term even though he’d make them even more left-handed in 2014. That can be a problem with guys like David Price, Matt Moore, Jon Lester, and Felix Doubront in the division.
Via Buster Olney: Shortstop Stephen Drew is not among the players with a contract offer from the Yankees in hand. The team reportedly has several offers out even after agreeing to sign Brian McCann. They’ve been adding infield depth these last few weeks, specifically by agreeing to re-sign Brendan Ryan and acquiring Dean Anna.
Drew, 30, hit .253/.333/.443 (109 wRC+) with 13 homers and six stolen bases in 501 plate appearances for the Red Sox this past season. He also plays a mean shortstop. Boston did tender him a qualifying offer, so teams will have to forfeit a high draft pick to sign him. Drew turned down more money from the Yankees last offseason to sign with the Red Sox because of playing time uncertainty, uncertainty that still exists. The Bombers still need help on the left side of the infield, but at this point they might settle for lower cost options like Ryan.
3:56pm: According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are “currently engaged” in talks with Beltran, Drew, Kuroda, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, and various unnamed mid-rotation starters. Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez are not in the mix at the moment.
1:12pm: Via Buster Olney: The Yankees still have offers out to various free agents even after agreeing to sign Brian McCann last night. He says there is currently no traction in talks with Robinson Cano and the team doesn’t want to sit around and wait. I dig it. In addition to Cano, I’m guessing they have offers out to … Carlos Beltran, Stephen Drew, Grant Balfour, and Hiroki Kuroda. Whaddya think?
Via George King: Both shortstop Stephen Drew and left-hander Paul Maholm are among the impending free agents on the Yankees’ radar for the upcoming offseason. The team may reportedly be in position to drop about $300M on player contracts this winter, part of which figures to go to re-signing Robinson Cano. The Yankees have a rather long list of needs, obviously.
Drew, 30, hit .253/.333/.403 (109 wRC+) with 13 homers and six steals in 501 plate appearances while playing solid if not above-average defense for the Red Sox this summer. The Yankees actually offered him more money than Boston last winter, but he turned it down due to questions about his playing time and Derek Jeter‘s ankle. Unfortunately, those same questions still exist. There’s a decent chance the Red Sox will made Drew a qualifying offer, entitling them to draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
Maholm, 31, had a typical Paul Maholm year for the Braves this year, with a 4.41 ERA (4.24 FIP) in 153 innings. He was just dreadful in the second half (5.73 ERA and 4.75 FIP) while battling an elbow problem. Maholm is a high ground ball (51.3%) guy who has seen his strikeout rate tick up a bit these last two years, but it still isn’t good (6.18 K/9 and 15.7 K%). I actually like Maholm more than most but he is the quintessential back-end innings eater. That’s it. I’d take a shot on him if his market dries up but he isn’t someone I would target right out of the chute in free agency.
Five questions and five answers this week. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send up anything at any time, mailbag questions or otherwise.
John asks: Hypothetically speaking (how else would we speak when speculating about the offseason?), if Robinson Cano were to get say $29M per year for nine years from the Dodgers, could the Yankees sign Brian McCann, Stephen Drew and Omar Infante for $29M combined? And, if so, might that be a better strategy for 2014 and beyond?
I don’t see how they could get those three for only $29M total. McCann is looking at Yadier Molina money on the open market ($15M annually) while neither Drew ($9.5M) nor Infante ($4M) have a reason to take a pay cut following their strong seasons. I think the best case scenario is something like $35M total, broken down into $15M (McCann) plus $12M (Drew) plus $8M (Infante). I’m probably underselling Drew and Infante given the dearth of quality middle infielders. It might be closer to $40M total than $35M when it’s all said and done.
If the Yankees can’t re-sign Cano — I would be stunned if they didn’t at this point — then spreading the wealth around is pretty much the only thing they can do. There’s no other superstar available this winter who is worth a nine-figure commitment. (Maybe Shin-Soo Choo. Maybe.) McCann plus Drew plus Infante would be a real good start, bhe Yankees need more pitching and outfield help though. This team isn’t one or two players away from getting back into contention. This roster has an awful lot holes.
Chris asks: Would you be in favor of reducing the time between signing and free agency? Teams today are forced to decide between players hitting their free agency years around age 28-30. Small market teams won’t pay for players past 30 and subsequently lose their players while big market teams continuously pay and pay. It hurts everyone. Isn’t the answer to make players free agents earlier? Cano would be worth millions and millions more if he was two or three years younger.
Oh yeah, absolutely. I am decidedly pro player when it comes to this stuff. Let them become free agents as soon as possible. Teams would never agree to it and, frankly, small market clubs would have no chance to contend if they didn’t get to control their young players for what is usually the most productive years of their career. If they knocked it down to five or even four years of team control before free agency, clubs like the Rays and Athletics would have no chance to contend. It would be a franchise killer. Baseball’s salary system is screwed up in that players earn the most when they’re on the decline, but it is what it is. The six years of team control are a necessarily evil.
Karl asks: How much amateur money is at stake over the possible variation in the final standings? Any chance a post-qualifying offer Hiroki Kuroda signs with the Dodgers to chase a ring and gets the Yankees a comp pick?
I’ll answer the second part first: yes I could definitely see Kuroda signing elsewhere in hope of winning a ring. The Dodgers are an obvious destination but the Tigers, Rangers, Nationals, and Cardinals could also be fits. Despite his ugly finish to the season, I’d have no trouble making Kuroda a $14M qualifying offer. It’s a no-brainer in my book.
As for the standings, the Yankees could finish with anything from the 12th through 16th best record in baseball. The Blue Jays have a compensation pick early in the first round, so that would give them the 16th through 21st overall pick. Right now they have the 17th overall pick and the only way they can move up to 16th is if they get swept by the Astros while the Diamondbacks sweep the Nationals this weekend. That’s the only possible way to move up at this point.
Based on last season’s slot values, that’s the difference between the 16th ($2.3M) and 21st ($1.97M) picks is kinda small. Nice chunk of change but not a game-changing amount. The 17th overall pick was slotted for $2.16M, but the values are expected to increase next summer. Based on historical data and all that, the difference in expected future value of the 16th pick and the 21st (or 25th or 30th, for that matter) pick is negligible. That’s all theoretical though, anything can happen in one given year. Obviously you’d like the higher pick.
Christopher asks: Would you be interested in the newly back on track Ubaldo Jimenez at around $13M? I think there’s great value there and he could be the steal that helps the Yankees get back on track.
Once upon a time I was in favor of trading Jesus Montero for Jimenez, and for a while there it looked like the Yankees dodged a serious bullet. Obviously that seems silly now because Michael Pineda still hasn’t thrown a single pitch for the team in the 20 months (!) since the trade. Seriously, he’s missed two years (and counting) with that shoulder injury. What a disaster.
Anyway, this is purely hypothetical because there is an $8M club option in Ubaldo’s contract for next season and the Indians will surely pick that up. The 29-year-old has a 3.38 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 176 innings this season but he’s been even better in the second half: 1.86 ERA and 2.39 FIP in 77.1 innings. Jimenez has been a big reason why the Tribe jumped over the Rangers in the wildcard race.
Update!: Turns out Jimenez’s club option became a mutual option after the trade. He’ll surely decline his half and become a free agent.
Now, as good as the second half has been, we have to remember Ubaldo was really bad just last season. Heck, he had a 4.56 ERA and 4.49 FIP in 98.2 innings of the first half this year. Last year it was a 5.40 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 176.2 innings. Jimenez would be worth a much deeper look if he was indeed going to be free agent — did he actually change anything? — but I’d be very skeptical about giving him $13M a year based on a good half-season. High reward but super duper high risk.
Donny asks: Since we might not actually get to see this come to fruition, I figured I would ask: What do you think the playoff roster might/should look like?
I’ve been saving this question for like, three weeks now. I didn’t want to answer it while the team still had a shot at the postseason because I figured there might be serious playoff roster talk at some point. Now that they’ve been eliminated, let’s have at it. Based on who is actually healthy and available right now, here’s the 25-man roster I would take into the wildcard play-in game/ALDS:
|Chris Stewart||Robinson Cano||Curtis Granderson||Mariano Rivera|
|J.R. Murphy||Lyle Overbay||Ichiro Suzuki||Hiroki Kuroda||David Robertson|
|Eduardo Nunez||Alfonso Soriano||Andy Pettitte||Boone Logan|
|Mark Reynolds||Zoilo Almonte||Ivan Nova||Shawn Kelley|
|Designated Hitter||David Adams||Vernon Wells||Phil Hughes||David Phelps|
|Alex Rodriguez||Adam Warren|
The opponent would dictate the bullpen to a certain degree. If the Yankees drew an opponent with a right-handed heavy lineup, I would probably take
Phil Hughes Preston Claiborne over Huff. In this general case I’d take the second lefty.
The Yankees have an alarming shortage of useful position players. Brendan Ryan is not eligible for the postseason roster because he wasn’t in the organization on August 31st, so Nunez is the starting shortstop by default. That leaves Adams or Reynolds as the everyday third baseman if A-Rod‘s various leg injuries don’t heal up in time. Hafner is pretty useless, but I’d rather have the extra bench bat than the 12th pitcher. I’d trim the staff down to ten pitchers if there was another position player worth taking. That … is not an inspiring roster. Geez.
Five questions for you this week and they’re all good ones. Might be biased, but I this is a quality mailbag. Send us any questions or comments or whatever through the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.
Many people asked: What about signing Brian McCann this offseason?
Not sure what sparked it, but we got a ton of McCann questions this week. I guess people are just sick of watching the team’s current catchers on a daily basis.
Anyway, the 29-year-old McCann is scheduled to become a free agent this winter for first time in his career. A right shoulder injury really hampered him last season (87 wRC+), but he’s rebounded very well from offseason surgery to produce a .258/.333/.472 (125 wRC+) line that is right in line with his career norms (117 wRC+). Surgery on the front shoulder is a scary thing for a hitter, but McCann has come back very well and hasn’t seen a slip in his performance. It’s encouraging if nothing else.
Elite catchers — if McCann isn’t considered elite, then he’s damn close — almost never hit the open market, so McCann will be one of the hottest commodities out there this winter. Yadier Molina signed a five-year, $75M extension last year and I think that’s the baseline for McCann. Yes, we’re comparing an extension to a free agent, but Molina is also the better player. I think 5/75 is in the ballpark at least. Seems reasonable enough to me.
Now, the problem with signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old catcher to a five-year contract is that you can’t expect him to catch full-time all five years. It could happen, but McCann would be the exception and not the rule. I think you have to go into the deal thinking he can catch full-time for the first two years, split the third year at catcher and first base, then split the fourth and fifth years at first base and DH. Maybe you get lucky and you get three years as a full-time catcher instead of two.
McCann makes a ton of sense for the Yankees for many reasons. First and foremost, he’s a massive upgrade over their current catchers. He’s better than all of them put together. Secondly, he’s a left-handed hitter who should see his production tick up with the move into Yankee Stadium. Third, he has plenty of experience with division and playoff races and all that stuff. And fourth, the timeframe works well. A young catcher like Austin Romine or J.R. Murphy could be broken in slowly these next few years a la late-1990s Jorge Posada, and if things break right down the line, Gary Sanchez will be able to step in right when McCann is turning into a pumpkin. He’s a great, great fit for New York.
Nick asks: Who is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason?
For all intents and purposes — there are some exceptions, players drafted particularly young or old — it’s high school players from the 2009 draft and college players from the 2010 draft this year. International players who signed at 18 or younger prior to 2008 or signed at 19 or older prior to 2009 are eligible as well. It’s always tough to pin down the international guys because we usually don’t know the exact date they signed.
The Yankees already took care of one piece of Rule 5 Draft business by adding Murphy to the 40-man roster this month. He would have been eligible this year and obviously would have been protected. As best I can tell, the following players are also Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter: CF Slade Heathcott, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Bryan Mitchell, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Danny Burawa, RHP Chase Whitley, and RHP Zach Nuding. That appears to be it among the legitimate prospects. Sanchez has at least one and possibly two more years to go before becoming eligible..
Heathcott is obviously going to be protected since he is one of the team’s top prospects. Greene, Kahnle, Burawa, and Whitley are all damn near MLB ready and would be prime Rule 5 Draft bait. All four would get picked if left unprotected. The Yankees floated Kahnle’s name in trade talks before the deadline (for both Alfonso Soriano and Michael Young), which leads me to believe they are leaning against not protecting him. They were trying to get something before losing him for nothing. Greene had the best year of those four and is the only one with a realistic chance of starting.
Mitchell has a great arm but it’s hard to believe he could stick on a 25-man roster all of next season. He’s someone who would get a look in Spring Training and be offered back, more than likely. Nuding too. That said, Jose Ramirez was in the same boat last year and he wound up being protected. The Yankees have been rather aggressive when it comes to protecting Rule 5 Draft guys in recent years — I feel like almost losing Ivan Nova to the Padres in 2008 scared them into protecting everyone — so I wouldn’t be surprised if they added Heathcott, Greene, Burawa, Whitley, and Mitchell to the 40-man this winter. Greene, Burawa, and Whitley would be up-and-down bullpen options as soon as next summer, if nothing else.
Kevin asks: As bad as the farm system was this year, doesn’t it seem just as likely next year could be a bounceback season? Say two of Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, and Heathcott bounce back, Sanchez stays steady, and Greg Bird and Rafael DePaula continue to progress, can’t you see next year we’re talking about a Top 10 system? This stuff seems to considerably vary year-to-year.
Definitely. This was a bad year for the farm system but there is a lot of potential room for improvement. Literally every team has those “if this guy bounces back, if that guy stays healthy, etc.” prospects, but the Yankees have more than most. They’re adding what amounts to five first round talents into the system as well: 3B Eric Jagielo, OF Aaron Judge, LHP Ian Clarkin, RHP Ty Hensley, and LHP Manny Banuelos. The first three were this summer’s first rounders and will be playing in their first full pro season while Hensley (2012 first rounder) and Banuelos (2012 top prospect) will be returning from injury. Full years from SS Abi Avelino and RHP Luis Severino will help as well. A lot would have to break right — it all won’t, some of these guys will inevitably disappoint — but the farm system has a chance to take a major, major step forward in 2014.
Paul asks: When does Joe Girardi have to announce a starter for a game? Is he able to use his Phil Hughes/David Huff tandem to somehow get the opposing manager to start his lefty-heavy lineup while starting Huff instead of Hughes?
The rulebook says that the starting pitcher becomes official when the lineup cards are exchanged at home plate before the start of the game. At that point the listed starter must face at least one batter before he can be replaced like every other pitcher. So, if they wanted the other team to start their lefty-mashing lineup against Hughes and replace him with Huff, they would have to wait at least one batter.
That said, this isn’t all that practical because Huff will need some time to warm up and the other club would see him getting ready in the bullpen beforehand. There’s also a gamesmanship aspect to this. I don’t think something like this would go over well around the game. If Hughes were to get hurt? Sure. But otherwise … eh.
Justin asks: Two part Brendan Ryan question. Recently, the YES announcers have quoted Kevin Long saying he could “fix” Ryan’s swing. A) Do you think that he can bring him to respectability of maybe a .260 hitter? B) Is he a better 2014 option over Jhonny Peralta or Stephen Drew?
Long is just a hitting coach, not a miracle worker. Ryan has never been an adequate hitter — career .252/.303/.341 hitter … in Triple-A — and it’s hard to think Long could do anything that would suddenly transform him from a .238/.300/.321 career big league hitter into say, a .260/.320/.350 guy for even one year. It could happen, baseball is weird like that, but I don’t think there’s enough starting material here for that to happen.
As for 2014, I think Ryan would be my last resort at shortstop. Well, second to last ahead of Eduardo Nunez. (Sorry Eddie, I’m over you.) I prefer Drew — a slick defender and a Yankee Stadium-friendly lefty hitter — over Peralta by quite a bit among free agent options, but both guys would be real nice fits next year. Drew could play short while Peralta takes over at third for the presumably suspended Alex Rodriguez. I do think — and this is completely baseless, by the way, just a guess — the Yankees want to avoid Biogenesis/PED guys going forward though, so Peralta might be a non-option. Ryan’s been a nice little late-season pickup but I absolutely do not want that guy penciled in as the number one shortstop come Opening Day.
Via John Tomase: Stephen Drew passed on an offer from the Yankees and took less money to sign with the Red Sox this past offseason. Tomase indicates New York made the infielder the same one-year, $12M offer they gave Kevin Youkilis. Drew eventually signed a one-year deal worth $9.5M with Boston.
“The Yankees wanted me to go play third, play a role, go to short, second, whatever,” said Drew. “First of all, I haven’t been a platoon player. That’s asking a lot of an everyday player to go play somewhere different. You never know how the year would pan out, but the Red Sox needed a shortstop, and for me it’s been a blessing coming over here and playing with this team that’s got a lot of life. I feel like I’m a good fit here.”
Drew, 30, is hitting .233/.313/.409 (92 wRC+) with five homers in 262 plate appearances this season. He’s currently on the DL with a hamstring problem, and he missed the start of the year with a concussion as well. Obviously Drew would have been fantastic to have around these last few months given all the injuries. Walking away from $2.5M couldn’t have been easy, but I can’t blame him for taking the full-time shortstop job over being a role player.
According to multiple reports, the Red Sox will sign shortstop Stephen Drew to a one-year contract worth $9.5M. The Yankees had some interest in Drew as a heavily-used utility infielder who would backup Derek Jeter and pre-hip injury Alex Rodriguez, but that was always a long shot. Drew was, by far, the best shortstop on the free agent market and there was little reason for him to accept a reduced role. The Yankees plugged their third base hole with Kevin Youkilis and are still seeking a utility infielder who can be an upgrade over Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez.
Self-promotion: Read my Drew post over at FanGraphs.