Now that the pomp and circumstance is over with, we can finally get down to the nuts and bolts of the draft. The best players tend to come from the first round but the vast majority of drafted big leaguers do not. The solid regulars, role players, and the like are usually drafted in the middle-to-late rounds and that’s how organizational depth is built. Turning a top ten selection into a star is one thing, turning a third rounder into Brett Gardner or a 17th rounder into David Robertson is another.
As we gear up for Day Two, let’s take a look ahead at what might be in store for one of the most unpredictable days on the baseball calendar.
The Basics
The draft resumes at noon ET today and will cover rounds 2-15. It’ll be conducted via conference call (available on MLB.com) and the picks will come rapid fire, none of this five (or even one) minutes between selections nonsense. The Yankees have two second rounders (#89 and 94 overall) and one pick in each subsequent round for a total of 15 choices this afternoon. Yes, there will be a liveblog.
Saving Draft Pool Space
A number of clubs with multiple Day One picks — specifically the Cardinals and Rangers — already grabbed low cost players in an effort to save draft pool space by eventually signing those players to below slot deals so they can redistribute the savings elsewhere. I expect the Yankees to do the same thing at some point today, perhaps even as soon as with one of their two second rounders. Both of those picks are valued at over $500k each, so going cheap with one could result in substantial savings.
The question is this: is it better to save say, $400k by going cheap on one of the two second rounders or by going cheap in the seventh, eight, ninth, and tenth rounds? Given the expected return on late picks, you can make a very strong case the latter is preferable. Then again, the board will play a factor. If there are two top talents sitting there in the second round, the Yankees could grab both and figure out the money thing later. If not, they could try to get the savings all at once. The point is, it’s better to have the extra cash and not need it than to need it and not have it. Expect a money-saving selection(s) at some point.
More Prep Players?
The Yankees were connected to high school arms quite heavily the last few weeks and that’s exactly what they took in first rounder Ty Hensley. The number of top prep players still on the board greatly outweighs the number of interesting college folk, so chances are the Yankees will lean towards high schoolers again today. I think a perfect world scenario would call for adding one of RHP Duane Underwood or RHP Ty Buttrey to Hensley in the second round, giving the Yankees two high-end arms at the core of their draft haul. That would be amazing. I would be surprised if either lasts that long, however.
At some point I would expect Damon Oppenheimer & Co. to start targeting polished college arms given their track record, more fodder for that bullpen pipeline. That usually happens in the later rounds though, plus the new spending restrictions could really throw a wrench into things. Then again, guys like Chase Whitley, Branden Pinder, and Mark Montgomery all signed for five figures. The Yankees have a knack for digging these guys up.
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Other than RHP Mark Appel and RHP Lucas Giolito, we didn’t see any top talents slide on Day One and those two really didn’t fall that far at all. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement was designed to get the best talent to the worst teams and that’s what happened. It makes for a very straight forward draft with relatively few surprises. I think it’ll take the clubs another year or two before they really figure out the best way to operate under the new system and land the best talent despite the spending restrictions.
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