Matt Warden, Author at River Avenue Blues

Ubaldo to the Yankees Indians; Oh S&%#!, what now?

July 31, 2011 by Matt Warden 60 Comments

Ubaldo to the Indians? Really?

Well, hey, more power to the Tribe, I suppose. The cost ultimately paid for Jimenez was right in line with what the Rockies had been requesting over the past several days now – that is to say, two elite prospects plus a couple of others. Or, simply put, a haul that would “wow.” And so, Colorado’s farm system instantly became that much stronger with the addition of right-handers Alex White and Joe Gardner, first baseman/outfielder, Matt McBride, and a player to be named later. The mystery player to be named later is largely expected to be Drew Pomeranz (once he becomes trade eligible later this August). Simultaneously, Cleveland’s newest rotation member could wind up being the final piece that allows the Indians to surpass their fellow AL Central rivals in the standings and achieve the much desired playoff birth.

Interestingly, Pomeranz may eventually be viewed as the most valuable component of the deal down the road. The 22 year old lefty is ranked 14th in Baseball America’s top 20, and has looked mighty impressive with Cleveland’s High-A squad. Alex White was the 15th overall draft pick in 2009 and was ranked in Baseball America’s top 50 list heading into the season.

Although he’s currently on the disabled list with a strained finger ligament, White was pitching well prior to the injury at the big league level. Overall, I think the trade represents a pretty solid haul for the Rockies (and a curious departure from typical organizational practice for the Indians). It also leaves me somewhat aghast at what the Yankees would have had to trade in order to make this happen for themselves; I’m thinking Banuelos, Betances, and Ivan Nova along with a possible complimentary player like Laird.

So, where does this turn of events leave the Yankees? I guess that depends on where your priorities lie. For an organization such as New York, the emphasis is always on the present tense rather than that of the future. Judging how much of the future can acceptably be mortgaged away is really a matter of opinion. As it turns out, Brian Cashman’s opinion was one of reluctance and faith. Time will tell whether this was the prudent move or not. Admittedly, there’s still the possibility of a big trade with another organization, but given the short time frame remaining today, the chances have to be smaller.

Obviously, the Yankees rotation would have been deeper with Ubaldo in the mix than it is without him. There’s no arguing what he accomplished the past few seasons, just as there is no denying what he’s capable of doing going forward. Still, I maintain that Yankees fans *should not* jump off the ledge just yet. Time will tell whether the Yankees would have experienced buyers remorse with Ubaldo, and with every transaction, we’ll have plenty of time to scrutinize the move retrospectively.

It’s looking more and more likely that the Yankees will make the postseason again this year, and as cliché as it is, anything can happen once you get there. As the rosters are currently constructed, I do believe the Yanks are a better team still than either the Rangers or whatever team emerges from the AL Central. Boston is beastly, no doubt about it. Still, their rotation like everyone else, is far from perfect. There’s a legitimate reason the Sox made a strong bid for Rich Harden — who Joe expertly discussed last week — just as there are plenty of reasons why we, as fans, should be thankful the talks fell through thanks to a failed physical examination. Overall, the Red Sox may be the better team, but if they are, it’s not by a substantial amount.

Also, regardless of whether one agrees or not with Cashman not pulling the trigger on some of the club’s more notable prospects, it’s always a good thing when the farm system has an abundance of talent. I know this brings very little solace to some — I am all for trading prospects under the right circumstance too — but in today’s baseball climate, valuable cost-controlled young players are more important than ever. At least for now, the Yankees have flexibility in that regard.

New York may “pay the price” in the immediate future (i.e.- the postseason) by not having another very good arm in the rotation, but with a little luck, perhaps the return on prospect patience will be worth its weight in gold down the road. Sure some of the prospects will undoubtedly not pan out, but given the potential of some of their young players, don’t be surprised if some of them do contribute in a big way in the future. The obvious question remains the same; does cost controlled talent outweigh the salivating-inducing thought of another successful World Series run?

I, for one, am okay with how things turned out. Yes, I realize this may just be a Yankee blogger’s way of rationalizing. I would have loved to have Jimenez on the Yankees roster, but honestly, I wasn’t nearly as disappointed when this trade didn’t work out as I was when Cliff Lee departed to the Rangers last season.

For what it’s worth, I do believe the Bombers have enough talent to contend in the postseason this year. I’m also delighted the team still has guys like Jesus Montero waiting in the ranks, and bringing reason optimism for the future. Who knows; perhaps, we have the best of both worlds at this point.

* * *

I’d also like to share some news on a more personal level. Yesterday afternoon, I went hiking with my wonderful girlfriend of six years, Kylee. We reached a secluded spot with an absolutely breathtaking view of the lake. I proposed and she said, “Yes!” Ky is now officially my fiancée.

Kylee, you mean the world to me. I love you. I’m the luckiest man alive.

The ambiguous world of “Baseball Gamesmanship”

July 17, 2011 by Matt Warden 28 Comments

Over the past few games, the Yankees have been fairly vocal with their feelings regarding Toronto’s alleged stealing/relaying of signs. After being outscored 23-8 through the first two games of the series, Joe Girardi commented, “Sometimes we have inclinations that certain things might be happening in certain ballparks and we are aware of it and we try to protect our signs.” The skipper elaborated, “I’m not accusing anyone. I just said we need to protect our signs. You have to take pride in it, and you have to be smarter than other clubs when you do things, and you have to change things up.”

For what it’s worth, my guess is that the losses endured over the first two games of the series had more to do with the shoddy defensive play and grossly underwhelming pitching than anything else. Perhaps not so coincidentally, CC Sabathia didn’t appear overly affected by any stolen signs as he pitched eight strong innings of one run ball during the third game of the set, which ultimately resulted in a 4-1 Yankees win. The same could probably be said for Phil Hughes and his six inning, two earned run effort today.

Of course, if the Blues Jays were actually using some outside form of monitoring (binoculars, electronic equipment, etc.), than that absolutely would be a problem as that type of action blatantly contradicts the written rules of the game. In the same vein, if the Yankees seriously believed this to be the case — which would constitute a fairly substantial charge against the Jays — I’d suspect MLB would probably be asked to step in. Interestingly enough, the Yankees are not the first team to make this particular type of complaint either.

Assuming no official rules were actually violated though, this situation at the very least, qualifies as one of the many ambiguous circumstances of the game that are not necessarily illegal, but still incensing to some nevertheless. It wasn’t shocking to anyone when Martin commented, “They’re lucky that that’s my mindset, of me wanting to change [the signals] because it’s my fault. But some other teams, guys can get drilled for that. I’ve seen it happen.”

It would appear that popular consensus suggests that if a base runner is clever enough to figure out a pitch sequence, signal the dugout, and focus on base running, more power to him. To me, it speaks more towards overall poor pitch selection or general predictability on behalf of the pitcher and catcher. I completely agree with Russell Martin’s conclusion, “The reason why you put multiple signs down is so they’re not able to relay, and that type of stuff. There’s a reason why you just use one when there’s nobody on, and multiple when there’s people on.”

However, it’s certainly understandable how rationalization of this type of “gamesmanship” treads a fine line. Depending on your stance, other similar aspects of the game become a little trickier to condone or condemn. When does “crafty gamesmanship” become unsportsmanlike shenanigans? Also, do you find your feelings change when the discussion shifts to other topics such framing pitches, sliding especially hard into second, pretending to be hit with a ball during an at bat, or distracting an infielder while running the bases? I’d be curious to hear your thoughts.

Frankie Cervelli and the backup catcher plight

July 16, 2011 by Matt Warden 25 Comments

Earlier this week, I posted a very unscientific/unofficial poll on Twitter. The question was simple. “If I say ‘Francisco Cervelli,’ the first thought that comes to your mind is….” RAB’s very own Ben Kabak responded with the only (sort of) positive response, “fist pumps” (hurray for enthusiasm!). The rest of the answers were either equal to, or synonymous with, “awful” which is pretty much what one would expect.

All of the candid responses, of course, got me thinking. How does Cervelli actually compare to other backup catchers from around the American League. And, is our collective angst really justified? Note: the stats compiled below do not include the games played since the All-Star break.

Offense:

In terms of offense, clearly Cervelli doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. His walk rate is lower and his strikeout rate higher than the average backup catcher in the AL. Just let that thought resonate on your tongue for a second. He doesn’t particularly hit for power or for contact either. Most importantly, our eyes — which are never biased in the least — tell us he is a supremely gifted rally-killer, right?

Well to be fair, Cervelli’s only had 77 plate appearances which is a pretty nominal sample size. Obviously, his limited exposure at the plate is also by design. Now, I don’t want to come across as an apologist for Franky’s offensive contributions; they are what they are. However, my point here, is that most backup catchers are very mediocre at best (at least offensively), and Cervelli is only marginally below that mark in terms of individual production.

Roughly speaking, all Cervelli would really need is about five more hits than he currently has (20 hits instead of 15, out 70 at bats) and he’d have a .285 batting average with a wOBA hovering around .320 which for all intents and purposes, is right in line with the other backups of the AL East.

In other words, given the typically high octane offensive production being generated by the rest of the team, I think there’s a bit of wiggle room to be found here. No one should expect Cervelli to match Victor’s production, and no one should be surprised when the results are less than stellar given his role on the team.

Defense:

I think one can absolutely make the case though, that a backup catcher should be at the very least, proficient on defense. After all, purely defense-oriented catchers are theoretically a dime a dozen. Much to my chagrin, this aspect of the game is substantially harder to quantify though (especially when it comes to catchers).

If we utilize Fangraph’s FLD metric — which is UZR, or TZR prior to 2002 — Cervelli is definitely trailing his peers. Of course, the only catchers of the group to garner really solid ratings are Tampa Bay’s Kelly Shoppach and Cleveland’s Lou Marson. The rest of the group is average at best. Even former Yankee Jose Molina, who is often raved about defensively, comes across as very average according to the numbers.

The other stat being displayed in the chart above is Caught Stealing Percentage. Now Frankie is obviously doing himself a rather large disservice every time he elects to throw the ball to Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner when the runners attempt to steal. At this juncture, he’s only successfully stopped two runners out of the 21 attempts. Opposing teams will continue to smell blood, and will continue to test him accordingly until he proves otherwise.

How much of that CS% is related to outside factors; I don’t really know. Some pitchers have naturally slower deliveries. Some pitchers offer less control (I’m looking at you AJ) which can distort the pickoff movement. Hell, some divisions could simply have more quality base runners than others. On the flip side, if someone has a reputation for having an excellent pickoff move, runners will become deterred; if only the best base runners are attempting steals, the percentages can become skewed from that (i.e. – three successful steals out of eight total attempts). Anecdotally speaking, I think Cervelli’s 10% CS rate is unacceptably low though.

Overall WAR:

For quick reference, let’s take a look at the old WAR rankings. It’s a pretty pathetic picture, which I think, is the point. The position is marred by mediocrity and Cervelli is on the lower end of that mediocre spectrum. The larger point though is that the contributions gained or lost with Cervelli are not overly substantial. In my eyes, his job first and foremost, is to simply be available to spell Russell Martin. Secondly, he should provide some decent defense (whether or not he’s doing this is questionable), and any offense is merely gravy. Are these needs being satisfied? Perhaps.

The only guys really raising the averages in the list above are Kelly Shoppach, Victor Martinez, and Mike Napoli. Now, Shoppach and Napoli are not solely backup catchers; they also do some first base work and are occasionally slotted as designated hitters. Frankly, Victor is about as much of a backup catcher as I am; his value obviously stems from his bat which is why he’s given so much exposure at the plate.

Additionally, finding quality starting catchers is seemingly impossible as it is. Finding a second quality one is really just not overly realistic. Perhaps the reason why our attitude about Cervelli is particularly soured is because we have one of the most hyped prospects of recent memory waiting in the pipeline, who supposedly could fill that need. The only problem is, unless, the Yankees are willing to give Montero those additional at bats that would make him valuable, he wouldn’t be overly impacting on the team (I can’t account for the benefit of big league exposure at a developmental level). Granted, it’s absolutely debatable whether or not the Yankees would be able to get Montero sufficient exposure for the remainder of the year, but as of now, it seems they are not intent on doing so.

Introductions, July 4th and the Yankees, and general randomness

July 2, 2011 by Matt Warden 31 Comments

To the RAB Readership,

Hi folks. I’m Matt Warden and it’s a pleasure to meet you — even if it’s only in a virtual sense!

I’ve been a dedicated reader (and sporadic commenter) here at River Ave Blues for quite some time, and am absolutely delighted about now having the opportunity to contribute to the site as an author. Of course, I certainly look forward to all of your candid feedback in the “comments” section as well.

My hope is to provide you the same thoughtful, unbiased analysis that you’ve come to expect from the RAB crew. At the very least, ideally, it is my preference that you won’t walk away feeling like Filbert, the uncomfortable anthropomorphic turtle from Rocko’s Modern Life (one of my favorite childhood cartoons mind you), thinking “I’m nauseous…I’m nauseous…I’m nauseous!” after each one of my posts. If that is indeed the case, I’d strongly recommend lowering your standards.

I’ve also recently been assimilated by the Borg Tweeting community — my Twitter tag is @Matt_Warden. Feel free to send me your observations, rants, criticisms, hexes, whatever really — I’ll do my best to respond in kind.

Best regards,
Matt W.

And now…here’s something Yankee-related.

One of my favorite elements of baseball, as a sport, is the general acknowledgment and appreciation of seemingly arbitrary tidbits of information. Given that it’s a holiday weekend; I thought it’d be fun to provide some frivolity by offering some interesting July Fourth related morsels of my own.

Over the past 21 seasons, the Yankees have gone 9-12 on Independence Day. The nine winning NY pitchers during that time frame (listed in chronological order) are: Eric Plunk, Mariano Rivera (back when he was still considered a starting pitcher), Andy Pettitte, Orlando Hernandez, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Jason Anderson, Brett Tomko, and most recently David Robertson in 2010.

There have only been six players who have played for the New York Yankees whose birthdays have also fallen on the Fourth of July. They are as follows:
1. Ted Lilly – [2000-2002] during 2001, Lilly’s one full season with the Yankees, he pitched to a 5.37 ERA (84 ERA+) with a 1.467 WHIP in 120.2 innings (valued at a -0.1 bWAR). Unfortunately, we never saw the best of Ted.
2. Daryl Boston – [1994] through 84 plate appearances, Daryl batted .182/.250/.364 (.614 OPS), which was good for a -0.8 bWAR. Hooray for underachievement.
3. Paul Gibson – [1993-1994] Threw a grand total of 64.1 IP during his tenure in pinstripes. In 1994, his SO/9 rate was 6.5; his BB/9 rate was 5.3.
4. George Selkirk [1934-1942] – During his nine big league seasons, Selkirk’s slash line was .290/.400/.483 (.883 OPS). The most important thing you have to know about Selkirk though, is his nickname – Twinkletoes (I laughed).
5. Blondy Ryan – [1935] played in 35 games (105 AB) and hit .238/.259/.305. Now I know what you’re thinking so let me give you something else to ponder instead. In 1933, he played in 146 games (543 PA), and batted .207/.258/.293. He was ninth in voting for NL MVP during the 1933 season. It was a pretty different landscape back then.
6. Klondike Smith – [1912] Real first name: Armstrong. His professional career extended all of seven games and all were with the Yankees. In his very brief stint in the Big Leagues, he posted a .185/.185/.222 triple slash (five total hits comprised of four singles and one double). So there’s that.

As far as I can tell, the only players to have died on Independence Day who spent time with the Yankees are Tony Rensa [played with NY in 1933] who died in 1987 and Foster Edwards [played with NY in 1930] who died in 1980. RIP.

This year, the Yankees will play Cleveland on the Fourth of July. The last time this match up occurred was back in 2006. The Bombers lost that game 19-1 (!). The winning pitcher for Cleveland was Jake Westbrook; the loser for NY was Shawn Chacon (surprise, surprise). He lasted a whopping 1.1 innings, allowed six hits (three of which were homeruns), seven earned runs, three walks, and managed only one strikeout. The “mop up” crew charged with cleaning up the steaming pile of handling the remainder of the game was composed of Ron Villone, T.J. Beam, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, and Kyle Farnsworth. It sure makes you feel good about are current bullpen even with half of them on the DL.

The last time the Yankees beat the Tribe on July Fourth was back in 2002 (Bombers won 7-1). The winning pitcher was Mike Mussina; Chuck Finley was the loser. Alfonso Soriano (1 H), Enrique Wilson (1 H), Bernie Williams (2 H), Jason Giambi (2 H), Raul Mondesi (2 H), Robin Ventura (1 H), Shane Spencer (1 H), and Chris Widger (1 H) all contributed offensively. Giambi and Mondesi both hit homeruns (it was the 22nd of the season for Giambi, the 16th for Mondesi).

On June 21, the Yankees announced the official retirement of Lou Gehrig. July 4, 1939 was proclaimed “Lou Gehrig Appreciation Day” at Yankee stadium. It would be in between the double header against the then Washington Senators, that Gehrig would deliver his famous “The Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth” speech. The New York Times described the speech as “perhaps as colorful and dramatic a pageant as ever was enacted on a baseball field [as] 61,808 fans thundered a hail and farewell.”

I’m thinking that’s probably enough for now. Have a happy (and safe) long weekend!