Mike Axisa, Author at River Avenue Blues

Trade Deadline Rumors: Machado, Heaney, Skaggs, Yates

July 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Only two weeks and one day until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline. “I know Cash and the guys are turning over every leaf and kicking tires on everything … So, if the right deal comes about, I think we’ll make it,” said Aaron Boone prior to yesterday’s first half finale. Here are the latest trade rumors.

Yankees may or may not be willing to trade top prospects for Machado

Conflicting reports from George King. First he said the Yankees are not willing to trade any of their top ten prospects for Manny Machado, then he said they are willing to trade some of their top prospects for Machado. Which is true? I’d guess the latter. I don’t believe the Yankees would trade either Justus Sheffield or Clint Frazier for a rental, however, even one as good as Machado.

If the Yankees truly are unwilling to trade any of their top prospects for Machado, then they’re not getting him. There are too many contenders in the mix — the Brewers and Phillies are said to be most aggressive — and talks seem far too serious at this point to think Machado’s market will collapse a la Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason. It could happen, sure. Never say never. Just seems very unlikely. Perhaps these conflicting rumors are the Yankees putting up a smoke screen. What it accomplishes, I don’t know.

Yankees interested in Heaney, Skaggs

The Yankees have started scouting the Angels more heavily and they have interest in left-handers Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs, reports Jon Morosi. The Angels have crashed hard these last few weeks — they’ve dropped 20 of their last 32 games to fall 9.5 games back of a postseason spot — though it’s unclear whether they’ll actually sell at the trade deadline. I imagine winning before Mike Trout becomes a free agent following the 2020 season is their top priority.

Skaggs (2.57 ERA and 3.01 FIP) has outpitched Heaney (3.78 ERA and 3.82 FIP) this season, and he has better strikeout (26.1% vs. 24.0%) and ground ball (47.9% vs. 40.6%) rates as well. That said, Skaggs has an uglier injury history and one fewer year of team control (two vs. three). The Yankees really need another starter and I’d definitely prioritize quality over years of control at the deadline. I would be surprised if the Angels traded away non-rentals unless they get blown away with an offer. Skaggs and Heaney are a good idea. Might not be very realistic though.

Yankees have checked in with Padres

We’ve heard the Yankees have interest in Brad Hand but don’t love Tyson Ross, and now Joel Sherman throws another Padres pitcher into the mix: Kirby Yates. Yes, former Yankee Kirby Yates. Yates was pretty crummy with the Yankees in 2016, then bounced from the Angels to the Padres on waivers. He’s settled in nicely with San Diego, and this season he has a 1.43 ERA (2.06 FIP) with 32.4% strikeouts. Huh. He has a 2.80 ERA (2.92 FIP) in 93.1 innings since joining the Padres last year.

Chad Green’s recent home run issues aside, the bullpen has been an overwhelming strength this season. The Yankees lead all bullpens in ERA (2.69), strikeout rate (31.6%), and WAR (+6.6), and they’re second in FIP (3.00) and WPA (+7.71). There is nothing wrong with adding to a strength though, and with Chasen Shreve eminently replaceable, adding another high-end reliever at the deadline isn’t a bad idea at all. Is Kirby Yates that guy? Maybe! That would be kinda weird, huh? Nothing wrong with checking in, of course.

2018 Midseason Review: The Catchers

July 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The All-Star break has arrived and this is the perfect time to take a step back and review the first half of what has been a very successful 2018 Yankees season to date. We’ll review the team and hand out some letter grades (relative to expectations), because why not? We begin today with the catchers.

Coming into the 2018 season, the catcher position was expected to be a strength for the Yankees. Gary Sanchez established himself as one of the top backstops in baseball last season — certainly as the top power-hitting catcher, at the very least — and the expectation was he would again produce at that pace this year, if not improve. Instead, it’s another Yankees catcher who has improved this year. Let’s review the season to date behind the plate.

Kyle Higashioka

Midseason Grade: Incomplete

We’re going through the players alphabetically and I suppose it’s fitting we begin with an incomplete grade. Season’s still far from over. Kyle Higashioka has been on the big league roster for less than a month as the backup catcher during Gary Sanchez’s disabled list stint. Higashioka was the No. 3 catcher on the depth chart coming into the season and he had to bide his time in Triple-A until an injury struck.

Prior to the call-up, Higashioka authored a weak .191/.265/.328 (66 wRC+) batting line with five homers in 51 games with Triple-A Scranton. In eleven games with the Yankees he’s gone 5-for-30 (.167) with three home runs. His first three big league hits were dingers! Higashioka and Alfonso Soriano are the only players in franchise history to do that.

Defensively, I’m not really sure what to say about a guy with 81 innings behind the plate. Runners are 9-for-9 stealing bases against him, which is terrible, though Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) says he’s been a slightly above-average pitch-framer, so that’s good? Better than the alternative, I suppose.

Ultimately, Higashioka has been a perfectly cromulent backup backup catcher. Three dingers in 33 plate appearances is more offense than I would’ve expected from a third string catcher, and his receiving has been fine. (The stolen bases are another matter.) Higashioka’s been in the organization long enough that he knows the pitching staff fairly well. He’s been fine in his limited big league team. That’s a good way to describe it. Fine. He’s been fine.

Austin Romine

Midseason Grade: A+

I’m not sure any player on the roster has exceeded expectations more than Austin Romine so far this season. Romine was legitimately bad the last two years. He hit .228/.271/.330 (57 wRC+) in 428 plate appearances from 2016-17 and, for what it’s worth, the Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) defensive numbers had him at +1.8 runs above average behind the plate, which is not nearly good enough to make up for the lack of offense.

The defensive numbers are basically unchanged this year, but, for the first time in his big league career, Romine has been a legitimate threat at the plate. He currently owns a .270/.333/.492 (124 wRC+) batting line — a .492 slugging percentage! — with six home runs in 136 plate appearances. Romine hit seven home runs total in 611 career plate appearances prior to this season. Now he has six in 136 plate appearances.

Early in the season Romine went the Giancarlo Stanton path and really closed up his batting stance — I’m not going to embed the image again, but you can see it here — and while he doesn’t seem as closed at the moment, there has been a mechanical adjustment. It has not been a dumb luck hot streak for Romine. Some numbers:

Hard Contact Rate: 36.2% (27.3% from 2016-17)
Ground Ball Rate: 41.9% (46.0% from 2016-17)
Opposite Field Rate: 40.4% (32.7% from 2016-17)
Average Exit Velocity: 89.1 mph (85.7 mph from 2016-17)
Expected wOBA: .342 (.291 from 2016-17)
Chase Rate: 25.4% (37.8% from 2016-17)

One on hand, we’re talking about 136 plate appearances spread across 95 team games. Context is important. On the other hand, Romine has never done anything like this before in his career. More hard contact, more balls in the air, more balls to the opposite field, fewer chases out of the zone. Pretty good combination there. The results are backed up by promising underlying trends.

Will Romine continue at this pace all year? Who knows. Expecting him to maintain a 124 wRC+ the rest of the way might be asking too much. But there is enough underlying improvement here to think Romine now is a better hitter than he was the last two years. And, even if he reverts back to pre-2018 Romine, his first half already happened. These 136 awesome plate appearances happened and they’ve helped the Yankees win games. Even the biggest Austin Romine fans did not expect this. What a first half for the backup catcher.

Gary Sanchez

Midseason Grade: D

Relative to expectations, yes, this has been a very disappointing season for Gary Sanchez. And not just because of the groin injury that has sidelined him since June 25th. Prior to the injury Sanchez hit .190/.291/.433 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 265 plate appearances, and his passed ball issues remain. Gary allowed one passed ball every 50.2 innings before the injury. The MLB average is one passed ball every 117.1 innings.

Relative to big league catchers, Sanchez had a pretty good first half. I mean, a .190 batting average is a .190 batting average, and that’s terrible. But catchers are hitting .231/.305/.373 (85 wRC+) overall this season. Sanchez is in the ballpark with his OBP and his power is far better than pretty much everyone else. Gary hasn’t played in three weeks and he still leads all catchers with 14 home runs. The power has been his saving grace.

More than anything, Sanchez’s problem this season has been pop-ups. His strikeout rate (22.9% vs. 23.8%) and chase rate (36.3% vs. 32.1%) are not wildly out of line with last year, but he’s been popping the ball up much more often. Pop-ups and weak fly balls are easy outs. A .194 BABIP is absurdly low and won’t continue forever, but it’s not entirely undeserved either. Some launch angle data:

Sanchez already has more batted balls near the 90° line than last season, and he has 44 “hit under” balls among 169 balls in play, or 26.0%. Last year he had 76 “hit under” balls among 355 balls in play, or 21.4%. Gary’s 21.1% infield fly ball rate — that’s 21.1% of all fly balls that are infield pop-ups — is far above last year’s 10.8% rate and far above the 10.3% league average. Totally matches the eye test in my opinion. So many pop-ups. So many.

Gary did have some big moments in the first half. There was the walk-off homer against the Twins, and the go-ahead homer that had Ken Giles punching himself, and the game-tying homer against the Mariners. Believe it or not, Sanchez does have a 150 wRC+ in high-leverage spots and a 139 wRC+ with runners in scoring position this season. Even with the overall disappointment, Gary came through in some really big moments in the first half.

The pop-ups and weak fly balls are really dragging down Sanchez’s batting average and overall production. I don’t know if he’s changed his hitting mechanics, gotten too home run happy, or fouled himself up trying to improve his launch angle, but whatever it is, it’s something Gary and the Yankees have to fix and soon. He’s expected back from his groin injury for the start of the second half Friday. The sooner good Gary returns, the better.

Fan Confidence Poll: July 16th, 2018

July 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Record Last Week: 4-4 (47 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 62-33 (493 RS, 362 RA, 61-34 expected record)
Schedule This Week: All-Star break (Mon. to Thurs.); Three games vs. Mets (Fri. to Sun.)

DotF: Sanchez goes deep in first minor league rehab game

July 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

RHP Dillon Tate was officially placed on the Double-A Trenton disabled list today, the team announced. He’s out with a supposedly minor quad injury suffered while shagging fly balls during batting practice last week. The hope was Tate wouldn’t even miss a start, but I guess that’s not the case.

2018 Futures Game (USA 10, World 6)

LHP Justus Sheffield: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 0/1 GB/FB — 13 of 20 pitches were strikes … struck out Padres 2B Luis Urias and gave up a solo homer to Royals OF Seuly Matias, a 19-year-old who leads the minors with 26 homers in 74 Low-A games (he also has a 36.3% strikeout rate)

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-1 win over Rochester) they faced a rehabbing Ervin Santana

CF Billy McKinney: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K — he took Santana deep … fourth homer in his last 15 games
DH Brandon Drury: 0-2, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K
1B Tyler Austin: 1-4, 1 K
C Gary Sanchez: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K — he took Santana deep … here’s video of the homer … played seven innings in his first rehab game as scheduled … he’s scheduled to DH tomorrow, rest Tuesday, catch nine innings Wednesday, rest Thursday, then rejoin the Yankees on Friday as long as everything goes well this week
SS Abi Avelino: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB
RHP Luis Cessa: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 7/6 GB/FB — 60 of 88 pitches were strikes (68%) … somehow this is only his fourth Triple-A outing of the season, if you can believe that
RHP Gio Gallegos: 2 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 4/0 GB/FB — 16 of 25 pitches were strikes (64%)

[Read more…]

Indians 5, Yankees 2: Green melts down in first half finale

July 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

A suboptimal finish to the first half. The Yankees let a winnable game slip away Sunday afternoon — that happened far too often on this road trip — to finish this four-game series with a split. Normally I’d be okay with splitting four games with the Indians in Cleveland. This was frustrating though. The final score was 5-2 and the Yankees go into the All-Star break at 62-33 with a +131 run differential.

Strong Tanaka
An excellent outing for Masahiro Tanaka. Too bad the #obligatoryhomer happened to be a game-tying two-run shot by Edwin Encarnacion. Just yesterday I was saying to myself it seems like Encarnacion has done nothing against the Yankees since leaving the Blue Jays. So blame me for that home run, guys. Encarnacion’s two-run blast came on a hanging slider and knotted things up 2-2 in the fourth inning.

Other than that, Tanaka was fantastic. Five strikeouts in 6.1 innings and ten ground ball outs compared to four in the air. His average exit velocity allowed was 82.9 mph and that includes the 100.9 mph home run. Tanaka got a lot of empty swings with his splitter and slider, and he was peppering the bottom of the zone with those pitches:

The Yankees need another starting pitcher before the trade deadline. There’s zero doubt about that. Getting Tanaka to pitch well down the stretch — he had a 3.77 ERA (3.41 FIP) in the second half last year, remember — would be a rather significant boost. Sunday’s outing against a good hitting Indians team was quite encouraging in his second start back from the hamstrings injuries.

Building A Lead
Stranding the bases loaded in the first outing proved to be costly. I suppose that’s obvious. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton singled — as usual, they were rockets — and Aaron Hicks drew a walk to load the bases with two outs against Trevor Bauer. Alas, the red hot Greg Bird grounded out to end the inning. Really tough to string together four baserunners to score a run against good pitching, you guys.

The Yankees scored their first run on three singles in the fourth inning. Brett Gardner stroked a leadoff single, Didi Gregorius moved him to third with a one-out single, and Hicks brought him home with a two-out single. Too bad the rules don’t let them try for a three-out single. Neil Walker added a second run with a fifth inning solo homer for a 2-0 lead. Go Neil. He actually had a pretty good road trip, going 6-for-23 (.261) with four runs driven in.

And thus ends the run-scoring portion of the afternoon for the Yankees. Sixteen of the final 18 batters they sent to the plate made outs, and the two baserunners came with two outs in different innings. Cleveland’s bullpen is terrible, but Bauer was able to complete seven innings, and they went to Carlos Carrasco on his throw day for the eighth inning. Indians manager Terry Francona showed a big time sense of urgency despite a comfortable division lead.

Eighth Inning Meltdown
For the second time in as many appearances, Chad Green allowed a crucial late home run. Last time out it was a Manny Machado game-tying two-run shot. This time it was a Michael Brantley go-ahead solo homer in the eighth. I had no trouble whatsoever with Aaron Boone sending Green back out for the eighth — he needed eight pitches to escape a first-and-third jam in the seventh — but I have a problem with this pitch:

Bad. Bad bad bad. The Machado home run came on a center-cut fastball as well. Green has already allowed more homers this year (six in 46 innings) than last year (four in 69 innings), which is a problem. Also a problem: Green remaining in the game. A single and a hit-by-pitch followed the homer, as did a parade of stolen bases. Three of them. The Indians added two insurance runs on a wild pitch to the backstop and a sacrifice fly. Gross.

I thought Green should’ve been out after Jose Ramirez followed Brantley’s homer with a single. The first two batters of the inning squared him up pretty well, and Green’s location was not good. I suppose you could argue Green had the best chance among available relievers to get out of that mess — David Robertson pitched a bunch last night and bringing Dellin Betances in with a fast runner on first is no bueno — but nah. I don’t buy it.

Another problem: Three steals in the inning. My goodness. Assuming Gary Sanchez returns Friday as scheduled, runners went 18-for-21 (86%) stealing bases against the Yankees in the 20 games he missed. That is far, far more damaging than nine passed balls in 53 games behind the plate. The Indians knew they could run with impunity and it helped create two insurance runs. Green stunk, and he was also hung out to dry by his manager and catcher.

Leftovers
The 1-2-3-4-5 hitters: 6-for-19 (.316) with a walk. The 6-7-8-9 hitters: 1-for-15 (.067) with the one being Walker’s homer. Leaving the bases loaded in the first inning really stunk. Bauer was going to throw 100 pitches hell or high water, but they had him on he ropes there. Alas.

And finally … that’s it? Not much else to say about this one. Losing a battle of the bullpen to the Indians stinks to no end.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head on over to ESPN for the box score and updated standings, and MLB for the video highlights. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The All-Star break. The Yankees have zero Home Run Derby participants and four All-Stars (Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres). Chapman (knee) and Torres (hip) will not play in the All-Star Game itself, so it’s just Judge and Severino. The Yankees open the second half with a three-game series against the Mets at Yankee Stadium. Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard are the scheduled starters for Friday night’s opener.

2018 Futures Game Thread: Sheffield representing Yankees

July 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The Yankees are currently wrapping up the first half with the series finale in Cleveland. Meanwhile, in Washington, baseball’s best prospects have gathered at Nationals Park for the 2018 Futures Game. The Futures Game is exactly what it sounds like: A showcase of baseball’s future. It’s too bad the Futures Game doesn’t get more attention. It’s an awful lot of fun.

This year the Yankees have one representative at the Futures Game: LHP Justus Sheffield. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are in the big leagues, and others like RHP Chance Adams, OF Estevan Florial, and RHP Albert Abreu are either hurt or having down seasons. Oh well. Sheffield will pitch at some point today. They don’t bring kids to the Futures Game and then not play them. He’ll get an inning at some point. Here are the 2018 Futures Game rosters and here are the starting lineups:

Team USA
1. CF Jo Adell, Angels
2. SS Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
3. 2B Brendan Rodgers, Rockies
4. 1B Nate Lowe, Rays
5. DH Keston Hiura, Brewers
6. RF Alex Kirilloff, Twins
7. C Danny Jansen, Blue Jays
8. LF Kyle Lewis, Mariners
9. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates

RHP Mitch Keller, Pirates

World Team
1. CF Luis Basabe, White Sox
2. SS Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
3. LF Yusniel Diaz, Dodgers
4. DH Seuly Matias, Royals
5. 1B Yordan Alvarez, Astros
6. 2B Luis Urias, Padres
7. RF Jesus Sanchez, Rays
8. C Miguel Amaya, Cubs
9. 3B Dawel Lugo, Tigers

LHP Jesus Luzardo, Athletics

It is hot, cloudy, and really humid in Washington today. There is rain in the forecast but not until much later tonight. The Futures Game won’t go longer than ten innings no matter what — each team only has ten pitchers on the roster — so the rain won’t be an issue. The Futures Game is scheduled to begin at 4pm ET and you can watch on MLB Network or stream on MLB.com. Enjoy the game.

Game 95: The End of the First Half

July 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Today is the final game before the All-Star break and, at 62-32, the 2018 Yankees already have more wins in the first half than any other team in franchise history. It’s true. That said, the All-Star break is really late this year for whatever reason. Their current .660 winning percentage is “only” ninth highest in the first half in franchise history in the All-Star Game era.

The Yankees have played well pretty much all season — you don’t get to 30 games over .500 on July 15th by accident — but the Red Sox have played slightly better, so the Yankees are guaranteed to go into the All-Star break in second place. No big deal. It’s not where you are on July 15th, it’s how you finish. Win today, enjoy the All-Star break, then get ready to feast on a weak second half schedule. Sounds like a plan. Here are today’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. DH Aaron Judge
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. CF Aaron Hicks
6. 1B Greg Bird
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. C Kyle Higashioka
9. 2B Neil Walker

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Cleveland Indians
1. SS Francisco Lindor
2. LF Michael Brantley
3. 3B Jose Ramirez
4. DH Edwin Encarnacion
5. 1B Yonder Alonso
6. 2B Jason Kipnis
7. C Roberto Perez
8. RF Tyler Naquin
9. CF Greg Allen

RHP Trevor Bauer

It rained overnight but it is nice and sunny in Cleveland this afternoon. A good afternoon for a ballgame, it is. This afternoon’s series and first half finale will begin at 1:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and TBS nationally. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Gleyber Torres (hip) has started taking batting practice in addition to on-field agility drills. Trainer Steve Donohue is on the AL All-Star Game staff, apparently, so he’ll work with Torres in Washington during the All-Star break this week. Gleyber is traveling to Tampa on Wednesday to continue his rehab and then play rehab games … Gary Sanchez (groin) begins his minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton today.

Rotation Update: The rotation coming out of the All-Star break will be, in order, Domingo German, Sonny Gray, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, and CC Sabathia. That’s three games at home against the Mets before a trip to Tampa to face the Rays. Severino figures to pitch in the All-Star Game at some point, though he’s still going to get a nice ten-day break between starts for the Yankees.