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Why the Rangers’ TV deal matters

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Earlier this week, rumors out of Arlington set the Internet abuzzing. The Rangers, reported USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, were on the verge of signing a 20-year, $3-billion TV deal that would guarantee them $150 million in annual payments for the rights to their games. With a new ownership group in place and a playoff berth secured, everything has been coming up roses for the former Washington Senators, and that TV deal, towering over the Dodgers’ $45 million intake, would be the highest for any team that doesn’t own its TV station.

When the final details emerged, the dollar figureds were tempered slightly. The deal will be worth closer to $1.5 to $1.6 billion with the Ranger’s annual take set between $75 and $80 million. Fox Sports will throw in an $80-million signing bonus that the Rangers will receive before the 2011 season. Obviously, this influx of cash concerns Yankee fans because of Cliff Lee and Cliff Lee alone.

For the Yankees, Lee is the one who got away this year, and not everyone was too upset by the machinations of the Mariners at the trade deadline. Because the Mariners wanted to wrestle Justin Smoak away from the Rangers and saw him as a better fit for Safeco Field than Jesus Montero will be and because of concerns over the additional prospects included in the deal, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik sent Lee not to the Yankees in early June but to the Rangers. The Yankees and their fans wanted to have Lee this year to wrap up the AL East and their 28th World Series championship, but they instead were willing to settle for a postseason acquisition.

With this money though, the Rangers could potentially be on footing nearly even with the Yanks when it comes to the dollars. If the Rangers see Lee as a potential cornerstore to a developing rotation and if he propels them through October to the franchise’s first ALCS or even World Series appearance, the Greenberg/Ryan ownership might be willing to part with a few years of TV profits to keep their ace. This TV deal guarantees at the very least that the Rangers will have an additional $60 million in revenue over their previous deal. The club has money to spend, and if two very rich teams want Lee, he will have money showered upon him.

Even with the Rangers’ new-found wealth, money isn’t an obstacle for the Yankees. They’ll have Javier Vazquez’s contract off the books and owe A-Rod less in 2011 and subsequent seasons than they paid him in 2010. Derek Jeter won’t be making $22.6 million either. Plus, the team has a revenue stream that allows them to up their payroll if need be, and Lee is clearly the club’s off-season priority.

That said, the winter’s decision will likely be a personal one for Lee. Even as the Rangers cakewalked their way to an AL West title, Lee went just 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 starts. He’s allowed 99 hits in 101.2 innings, and his home run rate more than doubled from 0.4 with the Mariners to 1.0 per 9 innings with the Rangers. His Texas FIP though is still a cool 3.13, but when rumors emerged in August that Lee wasn’t a big fan of Texas, you could almost hear the Yanks’ executives rubbing their hands with glee.

So Yankee fans should beware. With the Rangers’ revenue and success, they are bound to be active players in the free agent market this year, and that market begins with Cliff Lee. Three months ago, I was ready to count my chickens before they hatched, but today, I’ll hold my breath for two months and hope that Lee wants to come to New York as badly as New York wants him.

Anticipating Andy Pettitte’s return

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When Andy Pettitte went down with a groin injury that cost him two months of his 2010 campaign, I guessed the injury would spur him into pitching again next year. At 11-3 and with a 3.17 ERA, he can clearly still dominate American League hitters, and he strikes me as the type of player who wants to finish strong. So as part of the Yanks’ ode to Brett Favre but without the self-serving headlines or unnecessary drama, the “will he or won’t he?” debate over Andy Pettitte has already begun. In Jon Heyman’s latest, the Sports Illustrated scribe puts Pettitte’s return at 50/50. “I hope” he returns, Jorge Posada said. “He had a pretty good year. He’s still, for me, one of the best big-game pitchers.”

Earlier in the weekend, Ken Davidoff added his take on the topic: Pettitte says Roger Clemens’ legal troubles and his own role in the the government’s case will, in his words, have “absolutely nothing” to do with the decision to return to baseball. If Pettitte, who turns 39 next June, does return in 2011, it will more likely than not be his last season. “I know I’m not going to be playing at age 40. I know that,” he said to Davidoff. “So there’s just things I know I promised myself that I wouldn’t let happen. And those things would happen if I kept playing.”

Rumor du Jour: Girardi’s unlikely replacements

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As the Yanks sit upon the precipice of a playoff spot, it’s highly unlikely that Joe Girardi, despite a rough patch in early September, will be dismissed as the Yankee manager. The Yanks’ Front Office supports him, and the younger generation of Steinbrenners doesn’t seem so prone to rash personnel moves. Still, if Girardi himself chooses to take another job — say the opening in Chicago’s North Side — the Yanks will have to find a new manager. To that end, Jon Heyman, ever the rumormongerer, says that Bobby Valentine “likely would be one candidate to replace him in the Bronx.” Joe Torre’s name too has been bandied about by columnists looking for a narrative.

I say no way, no how on either candidate. Steve S. at TYU dispatches Torre while Rob Iracane at Walkoff walk seems to think that anyone advocating for Valentine’s return to the bench is delusional. The hand-wringing over Girardi’s contract is simply that. With the Yanks holding a secure playoff, the narrative of Girardi is one story to watch after the Word Series, but he’ll be back.

Darvish “highly likely” to be posted this offseason

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Ken Rosenthal reports (with a hat tip to MLBTR) that the latest Japanese sensation, righthander Yu Darvish, is “highly likely” to be posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters this coming winter. It’s the same process that Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa went through, meaning MLB teams will bid for the rights to negotiate with the player, and then discuss a contract separately.

The Yankees have been all over Darvish, having sent some serious heat to watch him in the not-too-distant past. Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker explained why Darvish is the real deal over at FanGraphs earlier this year, and it’s not hard to connect the dots with the Yanks in need of at least one, but likely two starting pitchers after the season. Believe it or not, Darvish is close to two full months younger than Phil Hughes.

Gardy or Grandy in 2011?

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Elsa/Getty Images

On twitter recently Stephen R. from TYU threw out a question about what you would give up for Colby Rasmus. It wasn’t considering team needs, salary, etc. but he wanted to know how Yankee fans valued their prospects vs. Rasmus. There were interesting responses, and one of the often repeated arguments was that Yankee fans would rather trade Gardner than Granderson. This brings me to my question: Who does more for the Yankees in 2011?

I’ll start by saying I am a big proponent of Granderson. I think going forward for 2011 and 2012 (at least) Granderson will outproduce Gardner. Looking at their 2010 seasons this assertion seems a little off the wall, but I think we have seen the worst of Granderson and the best of Gardner. Granderson has been a valuable player this year, Gardner has played at an All-Star level. I get that. My concern is going forward. Aren’t we seeing the absolute peak of Gardner’s abilities this year?

If the 2010 Granderson is the player he is going forward, he still provides value as an average offensive player with above average defense in CF. Working with Kevin Long has helped Granderson recently, though there is no way we can directly correlate that Long’s help “fixed” Curtis. Whether it was Long’s help or not, Granderson’s bat has picked up in the past month. Long will likely be around next year and Granderson is a willing listener and learner. Either way, Granderson definitely has room for improvement. Will he ever be the beast he was in 2007 and 2008? Probably not, though at just 30 years old on Opening Day 2011, he’s still in his expected prime and is definitely capable on improving his 2010 season. Granderson’s 2010 BABIP is .283 vs. a career BABIP of .316. I can’t ignore that his 2009 BABIP was .275 so I don’t want to say he has been unlucky for two straight years, but his batted ball data hasn’t seen any major shift in 2009-2010 from the rest of his career. His career LD% is 20.7 which he is matching this year and was at 21.2% in 2009. With his speed and line drive rate, I have to think his BABIP is due for a rise next year. Even if it doesn’t, he’s still valuable.

If the 2010 Gardner is the player he is going forward, he provides a ton of value. I’m just not convinced Brett will keep this up going forward, this is likely his peak. What can he realistically do better than he is doing this year? He’s not going to hit for power. I doubt he’ll become a .420 OBP guy. Are more of his balls in play likely to fall in for hits? Doubtful. His defense is great and isn’t something that he’ll necessarily improve going forward. Gardner to me is the epitome of a sell high piece right now. We don’t know that Gardner can repeat this next year. If he does, that’s great. If he doesn’t, then you’ve just lost a very valuable trade chip and might have a 4th OF on your hands. Noted Yankee hater* Keith Law is still not sold on Gardner. He doesn’t believe Gardner’s skill set will allow him to continue producing at this level. Whether it turns out to be true or not, that’s a fair assessment. I don’t advocate trading Gardner for a middle reliever, but if there are teams out there that are sold on Gardner’s 2010 as his true level, you have to investigate. Considering the financial cost, I believe Gardner, at least to some teams, would be more valuable on the trade market than Granderson anyway.

*not really

In 2011 Gardner could certainly be a more valuable player than Granderson, but Granderson is far more of a sure thing. Granderson’s potential peak is higher, but more importantly Gardner’s potential floor is lower.  Maybe the Yankees are 100% sold on Gardner and like his cheap production, but if these guys come up in trade talks during the offseason, I’d much rather Gardner be the one packing his bags.

If not the Yankees, where could Jeter end up?

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With Derek Jeter a free agent after the season and speculation of his demands running amok, I decided to take a look at where Jeter might fit if for some reason he ended up leaving the Yankees (but it ain’t happening).  Without getting too specific into contract details, how many teams out there would pursue Jeter in the offseason?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Stephen Drew, like his brother J.D. is somewhat of an enigma, but is a solid player whom the D-Backs would only replace if he became too expensive in arbitration.  No matter what, Jeter would be much more expensive, so the Diamondbacks are out.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves spend when they need to (see Derek Lowe and the offer to Burnett).  After trading Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez they will have a question mark at SS for next year.  They very easily could pick up Gonzalez’ $2.5 million team option for next year but without a SS of the future on the horizon they could be a fit for Jeter.

Baltimore Orioles

I’ve heard for years that Peter Angelos loves to make a splash, but the water in Baltimore has been calm for years.  While Jeter would certainly be a splash, the odds of him staying in the AL East to go play for the Orioles are miniscule.  The Orioles might be interested but Jeter won’t be.

Boston Red Sox

People think the Sox would love to stick it to the Yankees and sign Jeter but it’s not Theo’s M.O.  He would have to pay a ton of money to get Jeter, and already has a shortstop that’s having a similar season in Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is signed thru 2011 with options for 2012.  By then the Sox expect international free agent signee Jose Iglesias to take over and wouldn’t seem to have a place for, or the desire to pay Jeter.

Chicago Cubs

With Starlin Castro around the Cubs are definitely not a fit.

Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams loves his veterans but the other Sox don’t make much sense either.  Alexei Ramirez is young, cheap, and despite his flaws, a good player who has a 3.1 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR this season.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been a surprise team this year despite a horrendous year from Orlando Cabrera.  He has a mutual option for next season so he may be back.  If the Reds are looking to upgrade and build on this year’s success, it’s possible they would take a shot at Jeter (and I don’t mean that as “taking a shot at Jeter”).

Cleveland Indians

After a breakout 2009 Asdrubal Cabrera has struggled with injuries and the bat this year, but isn’t going anywhere, and besides, Jeter would have no interest in joining the Indians at the end of his career.  He’s not at Jake Taylor status quite yet.

Colorado Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki.  Next.

Detroit Tigers

Jeter grew up in Michigan and Tigers owner Mike Ilitch loves to open up the wallet, which will be even easier with Magglio Ordonez coming off the books.  The Tigers have had a black hole at SS all season so would have no problems fitting Jeter right in.  While Detroit is certainly not New York, the Tigers, to me, would be the biggest threat if Jeter ever is truly on the market.  Things line up quite nicely for both Jeter and the Tigers.

Florida Marlins

Even if they didn’t have Hanley they would never pony up the money.

Houston Astros

Shades of Pettitte and Clemens heading off to Houston?  With Tommy Manzella and his .523 OPS holding down the fort at SS, the Astros certainly have a need, but there would be no reason for Jeter to consider heading to such a poor franchise.

Kansas City Royals

Maybe if Jeter was a first baseman with pop and no on-base skills the Royals might be interested.  He’s not, but even if the Royals wanted Jeter, I’m sure the interest wouldn’t be mutual.  Besides Yuniesky Betancourt has a higher bWAR than Jeter this year anyway (I checked 5 times to make sure I wasn’t hallucinating).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Artie Moreno isn’t afraid to open up the checkbook but the Angels really like Erick Aybar.  He’s having a down year with the bat but is regarded as a very strong fielder (despite a slightly negative UZR this year).  I could see Jeter having some interest in the Angels, but I don’t think the Angels would have interest in Jeter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If Mr. Torre wasn’t heading out the door this one might have a stronger chance.  While Jeter may respect Don Mattingly from his time in pinstripes, I think Torre would truly have been a draw to L.A.  With the McCourts’ messy divorce changing the budget daily, it’s tough to say whether they would be in on Jeter if he became available.  Even if the interest was mutual, the Dodgers already have Rafael Furcal locked into 2011 with and option for 2012 that vests with 600 PA’s (no sure thing for Furcal these days).  While on the surface it seems like a fit, I don’t see any way it would happen.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are set with Alcides Escobar and there’s no way Jeter would head off to Milwaukee to finish his career.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been on a spending spree the past few years but this wouldn’t happen.  JJ Hardy is under team control through 2011, and while he’s not that good, the extra cost of Jeter would be too rich for the Twins’ blood.  I also doubt Jeter would have much interest in going to Minny and playing second fiddle (in a small market no less).

New York Mets

Because it makes no sense you can’t rule out Omar Minaya (if still employed) being interested in Jeter.  Jose Reyes hasn’t been great this year but has likely played well enough to have his 2011 $11 million team option picked up.  It makes a lot more sense to have Reyes at 1 year/$11 million than whatever Jeter would cost.  Again, the odds are slim, but the Mets just might be dumb enough to try and sign Jeter to make a splash, more than to help them on the field.

Oakland Athletics

Jeter isn’t a fit here.  Cliff Pennington is cheap, not an automatic out with the bat and strong defensively.  He’s been worth 2.9 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR this year for $405k.  No reason to change it up here.

Philadelphia Phillies

No reason to mess with “the greatest infield of all time” in Philly.  Well, of course it’s no the greatest of all time, but with Jimmy Rollins locked up for 2011 Jeter doesn’t fit.

Pittsburgh Pirates

I think Jeter would rather stay in New York for the minimum than sign with the Pirates.

San Diego Padres

Jed Hoyer learned under Theo, and like Theo I don’t think he would have any interest in Jeter at the market rate.  While the Padres don’t have anything set in stone at the position for 2011 it doesn’t seem to be a fit for either side.  San Diego is nice, but I don’t see Jeter wanting to chase 3000+ hits in Petco.

San Francisco Giants

Juan Uribe has been ok this year in San Fran but is a free agent after the season.  He’s certainly a possibility to return, but the Giants have been willing to open up the checkbook.  Brian Sabean usually brings in position players when they are past their primes, so Jeter could be a fit by the Bay.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners this offseason prided themselves on defense, and while it hasn’t quite worked as hoped, I doubt they would want to sign a SS to a multi-year deal heading into his age 37 season.  Considering how poor their offense has been though, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to sacrifice some defense at SS.  They do have Jack Wilson signed at $5 million for 2011, and would have to eat most of that if they wanted to move him.  Adding close to $5 million to Jeter’s pricetag doesn’t seem very likely though.

St. Louis Cardinals

On the field the Cardinals could be a fit as Brendan Ryan has been awful in 2010.  Opening the wallet for Jeter is a problem however. After blowing away the market overpaying for Matt Holliday and with upcoming contract negotiations for Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will be watching every penny.  Throwing $10-$15 million/year at a 37 year old shortstop isn’t likely to happen.  The Cardinals will likely just hope Ryan can return to his 2009 form, which produced 2.7fWAR and 3.4 bWAR.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays certainly aren’t a fit financially and despite Jason Bartlett’s fall from his great 2009 they are fine with him going forward.  Bartlett could go if he becomes too expensive in arbitration, but the Rays wouldn’t replace him with someone more expensive anyway, so Jeter’s a no go here.

Texas Rangers

I’d say the Rangers are plenty happy with Elvis Andrus, so no room for Jeter.

Toronto Blue Jays

Not a fit here as the Jays will likely let Yunel Escobar hold down the fort until Cuban signee Adeiny Hechavarria is ready.

Washington Natinals Nationals

The Nationals are set at SS with young and cheap Ian Desmond who has produced 1.5 bWAR and 1.5 fWAR for $400k this year.  He’s not going anywhere.

So there we have it.  Of the other 29 teams in baseball I only see one team that makes a ton of sense for Jeter (the Tigers) and a few others that might be a fit (Braves, Reds, Mets, Giants, Mariners).  While the last thing I want to happen is for the negotiations to get publicly contentious, I definitely think the Yankees have the upper hand when it comes to leverage.  No matter what, I can see almost no scenario in which Jeter isn’t back in the pinstripes next year.

Lilly still an option for the Yanks?

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(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Yesterday it seemed as though the idea of acquiring Ted Lilly came and went. We learned that the Yankees won the waiver claim on Lilly, but also that the Dodgers pulled him back. That seemed like the end of it. The Yankees clearly had interest in re-acquiring Lilly for the stretch run, but the Dodgers apparently didn’t want to deal with just one team — if they wanted to deal with any teams at all. It’s a shame, since Lilly could have helped, but with the August 31 waiver trade deadline in the past, that notion is dead.

Or is it? According to a Daily News report, the Yankees think they can not only acquire Lilly, but also can add him to their postseason roster. This does strike me as a bit odd, because yesterday’s report indicated that the Dodgers pulled back Lilly from waivers. That means, as I understand it, that they can’t trade him without again exposing Lilly to waivers, at which point any team could claim him and the Dodgers could not again pull him back. But the Yankees, “believe there is a loophole that because they were awarded the claim before the first of the month, they could use Lilly on their postseason roster.”

This claim appears out of line with what we know about postseason eligibility rules. The general rule is that any player on the 25-man roster, disabled list, bereavement list, or suspended list can be added to a team’s roster in any round of the playoffs. For the Yankees that includes the 25 active guys plus Damaso Marte, Andy Pettitte, Alfredo Aceves, Lance Berkman, Nick Johnson, and Alex Rodriguez. If any of those players is still hurt come playoff time, the Yankees can substitute him for another player who was in their organization on August 31. Since Lilly can’t have been in the organization by that date, it seems that he would be ineligible for the postseason.

I did ask ESPN’s Keith Law about this. He’s not certain about the rule, but he doesn’t think such a loophole exists. He then asked a front office guy and got a similar response. Again, neither Law nor the front office guy is certain, but they both believe that the Yankees would not be able to pull off such a move. To be certain we’d probably have to leaf through the MLB rulebook, which is not available online (though if you’re a super geek you can find a copy on eBay). But from most indications the Yankees will not get their way here.

We’ve seen some strange things happen, and maybe the Yankees have done their homework and have found the loophole they need. Lilly would be a welcome addition to a staff that has hit something of a rough patch. But he’s not necessary, so it’s not the end of the world if theYankees can’t pull of this maneuver. It’s an interesting thought, but it looks like the Yanks will go to war with the guys they’ve got.

Glove slap to Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness.