Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees recently won the waiver claim for Dodgers lefthander Ted Lilly. Team Torre pulled Lilly back, however, so he will not be traded to anyone, let alone the Bombers. Since the Yanks have the best record in baseball and thus are unable to block anyone, the fact that they claimed him indicates to me that they had sincere interest in acquiring him. Given the struggles of A.J. Burnett, Dustin Moseley, and Javy Vazquez, I can’t say I blame them, though I’m not confident with Lilly in the AL East. Oh well, moot point now anyway.
Cashman: ‘I haven’t thought about’ Kuroda
Last night, as the Yanks went about bombing the Blue Jays, Ken Rosenthal let slip an interesting tidbit: The Yankees, rival executives said to him, would be all over a Hiroki Kuroda claim were the Dodgers’ right-hander to reach them on the waiver wire. For just the $2.5 million remaining on Kuroda’s contract, the Yanks could have a three-win Type B pitcher who would significantly shore up the back end of their rotation. What’s not to like about the idea?
There is but one problem though: Brian Cashman says the Yankees aren’t interested in Kuroda. ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews pinged Cashman with a query on the Japanese hurler, and the Yanks’ GM shot down the rumors. “What we got is what we’re going with. I anticipate we are going to use the alternatives we have here, he said, referring to Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova.
Of course, Cashman doesn’t really have the ability to see more and doing so would overplay the Yanks’ hand. First, to express interest in Kuroda right now would be akin to tampering. The Yanks cannot openly covet a player on another team. Second, by letting slip their interest, Cashman would all but assure another team ahead of them on the waiver line would move to block a deal. Since the Yanks are dead last in the Majors when it comes to waiver priority on Kuroda, the stars have to align for the Yanks to land him.
The Yanks’ GM though had more to say on the subject: “I haven’t thought about him. I don’t even know if he’s on waivers yet. Besides, I’d be hard-pressed to find a pitcher on the waiver wire who can pitch better for us than Dustin Moseley has.”
Brian Cashman is no fool, but he seems to be trying to pull a fast one on other teams. Dustin Moseley is 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA, but how well has he truly pitched? In 45.2 innings, he’s allowed 44 hits but has an ugly 23:18 K:BB rate. He’s allowing nearly two home runs per 9 innings pitched and sports a FIP of 5.97. He’s stranded nearly 80 percent of base runners, a mark nearly 10 percent above league average, and his WAR is -0.3. Forget the waiver wire; the Yanks could probably find someone who can pitch as good as, if not better than, Dustin Moseley in AAA.
“I’m not even thinking along those terms because right now I’m not interested in adding anyone,” Cashman said to Matthews. “I like the team we have and I think we have what it takes to get the job done.”
That may be so. Perhaps the Yanks’ budget is tapped out. Perhaps they don’t have the $2.7 million to spend on Kuroda. Perhaps they’re just holding their cards close to their chest knowing that Kuroda may not fall to them otherwise. But perhaps Cashman wouldn’t have spilled the beans to Matthews if they were interested in Kuroda. Don’t let Brian fool you though; interested or not, the Yankees with Hiroki Kuroda are better than the Yanks without him.
Rumor de la nuit: Hiroki Kuroda
As the August 31st trade deadline draws near, teams — especially those out of contention — are placing most of their rosters on waivers, and the Dodgers are no exception. According to Ken Rosethal, the Dodgers have placed starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda on waivers, and the Yankees are going to be interested. Kuroda is owed approximately $2.7 million through the end of 2010 and will be free agent, most likely Type B, once the season is over. Said a so-called rival executive to Rosenthal, “I guarantee the Yankees are all over it.”
With Javier Vazquez out of the rotation for now, A.J. Burnett struggling to find consistency and Ivan Nova and Dustin Moseley question marks, Kuroda would be an intriguing option for the Yanks down the stretch. Since making his debut in 2008, Kuroda, now 35, has gotten better with experience. This year, he’s turning in his finest season in the Majors, and despite an 8-11 mark, he has a 3.48 ERA/3.36 FIP with a K/9 IP of 7.2 and a K/BB rate of 3.11. Opponents are hitting .254/.303/.367 off of him, and he would be a fine option to give the Yanks’ length down the stretch.
The question though of course concerns the Yanks’ placement in the waiver line. Because they’re not in the Dodgers’ league and have the best record in the AL, the Yanks have the lowest preference for a claim. With the knowledge that the Yanks are interested, the Red Sox or Rays could attempt to block the claim, but they then run the risk of getting stuck with Kuroda’s not-insignificant contract. Anyway, this is one rumor that may have some legs.
Oppenheimer, Eppler in Japan to watch Darvish
Via NPB Tracker on Twitter, we learn that the Yankees have sent Director of Professional Scouting Billy Eppler and VP of Amateur Scouting Damon Oppenheimer, two of their top player evaluators, to Japan to check out the 24-year-old Yu Darvish. The right-handed Iranian Japanese pitcher is 10-6 on the season for the Nippon Ham Fighters with a 2.05 ERA. In 20 starts spanning 158 innings, he’s struck out 174 while allowing just 5 home runs and 40 walks. He reportedly features an array of pitches including an upper 90s fastball, a slider, a change, a curve and what the Japanese call a shuuto, and this isn’t the first time the Yanks have expressed interest in him. They sent scouts to watch him earlier in the season, in 2009 and 2008 as well.
Darvish’s situation will present an interesting test case for Japanese pitchers coming to America. He isn’t eligible to be an international free agent until after 2014 when he will be, at just 28 years old, entering his prime, and so far his numbers dictate a big payday. He has a career ERA of 2.18 with a career K/9 of 8.4 and a career K/BB of 3.2. In March, Jeff Passan speculated that Nippon Ham could get upwards of $75 million if they posted Darvish sooner rather than later and that Darvish’s arrival in the U.S. isn’t a matter of if but when, and when that day arrives, the Yankees will be in on him.
Report: Yankees will keep an eye on Guillen
From the please be a cruel joke department, the Yankees will reportedly keep an eye on the recently designated for assignment Jose Guillen. I have absolutely no idea where Guillen would fit in with both Marcus Thames and Austin Kearns already on the roster. He doesn’t get on base (.308 OBP over the last three years), hits for nothing more than decent power (.164), doesn’t have any defensive value (-21.6 three-year UZR), and by all accounts is a bit of a jerk. Am I missing something here? There’s no reason for the Yanks to be interested in him, pass.
Mike Lowell and a possible return to pinstripes
The Yankees walked away from the trade deadline having upgraded three roster spots with Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, and Kerry Wood, and we know they wanted to add a utility infielder as well. They can still do that through a waiver trade in August, so the door isn’t closed on replacing Ramiro Pena, who unsurprisingly was unable to maintain his career best .312 wOBA from last year (seriously, his best full-season wOBA in the minors was .303 with Double-A Trenton in 2008). What is surprising is one of the players the Yanks targeted for that reserve infielder spot: Mike Lowell.
Ken Rosenthal said yesterday that the Yanks tried to pick up the former Bomber indirectly from the Red Sox on Friday. He says it would have been a three team swap involving the Rangers, who have long had interest in Lowell as they searched for a righthanded hitting first baseman, but didn’t elaborate on any other players that would have been involved in the deal. I can’t imagine it would’ve been much. The Red Sox were aware that Lowell would have ended up in the Bronx, and the Berkman trade did not alter the Yanks’ plans at all.
This isn’t the first time the Yankees have had interest in Lowell, as I’m sure you remember. After Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract in 2007, Lowell – that year’s World Series MVP – became an obvious target to fill that third base void. Even after A-Rod re-signed, the Yanks still had interest in Lowell as a first baseman, reportedly offering him a four year deal worth upwards of $60M. Thankfully that ended up being untrue, because it would have been a massive albatross if Lowell accepted (there would have been about $20.4M still left on said deal), assuming his hip issues were inevitable.
I know there have been several studies showing that “contract years” are largely a myth, but Lowell’s 2007 season sure looks like one hell of a salary drive. After 1,189 plate appearances of .319 wOBA ball in 2005 and 2006, he rebounded to post a .377 wOBA in ’07 with his usually stellar defense, a season worth 5.2 wins above replacement. It was the best season of Lowell’s career, surpassing his 4.6 win season back in 2004. He certainly took advantage of Fenway Park during that contract year, hitting to a .426 wOBA at home and just .330 on the road.
Lowell predictably regressed back to a .344 wOBA and 3.0 WAR in 2008, solid numbers but not what he had produced the year before. Following the season he required surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip, though he was ready in time for Spring Training and remained productive at the plate, putting up a .346 wOBA. His defense, like we saw with A-Rod, dropped off considerably after surgery, as his UZR dropped to -10.7 because of what FanGraphs has as a 21.7 run decline in his range from 2008. A-Rod’s defense has certainly gotten better as he’s gotten further away from surgery, but Lowell really gotten a chance to show us similar improvement because he hasn’t played much.
This season, with Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis having MVP caliber seasons and David Ortiz finding the Fountain of Youth in mid-May, Lowell simply hasn’t played. He hit the disabled list in June after coming to the plate just 76 times in April and May (.306 wOBA). Sporadic playing time equals sporadic results, though ZiPS rest of the season projection calls for what I think is an optimistic .338 wOBA. One thing to keep in mind is that over the last two years Lowell has a .296 wOBA away from the Green Monster (.383 at home). Even worse than the production are the nagging hip issues, which includes a pair of DL stints due to inflammation and several individual days missed.
Even going beyond the performance issues, Lowell really doesn’t fit the Yanks’ needs in the grand scheme of things. He’s not a true utility infielder because he can’t fill in at short (and less importantly, second base), so Ramiro Pena would have to remain on the roster. The Yanks would essentially be swapping out Marcus Thames (.373 wOBA vs. LHP) with Lowell (.352 wOBA vs. LHP over the last two years), sacrificing a little offense for third base insurance should A-Rod’s hip act up. Insurance with his own hip issues, mind you.
Of course, the only way the Red Sox are moving Lowell at this point is by eating basically everything left on his contract, which is about $4.22M at the moment. Considering that they’re on the hook for $11.15M still owed to Julio Lugo, Alex Gonzalez, Boof Bonser, and Billy Wagner, eating another $12M for Lowell while getting just 0.1 WAR out of him this year seems like it would be a tough pill to swallow, but at this point they have no choice. Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be the backup infielders once Dustin Pedroia is healthy, and a smart organization like Boston won’t sit on a dead roster spot with Lowell just to avoid eating his salary.
The Red Sox will try to trade Lowell, but chances are they’re just going to end up releasing him at some point. And that’s what Lowell wants. He wants to be able to choose his next team where he can actually play and audition himself for next year. The Rangers, long considered a perfect suitor, now have their righty first baseman in Jorge Cantu. The Yanks became a more realistic landing spot for Lowell once that trade went down. I’m not saying I want Lowell on the Yankees, but based on their history with him I would not at all be surprised if he ends up in pinstripes sometime this month.
The extremely high asking price for Scott Downs
After a strong start, the Toronto Blue Jays have faded back to their usual fourth place spot, barely hovering above .500 and 12 games behind the Yanks. So as the trade deadline arrives, the team will probably try to move some of its more valuable parts. To that end, Scott Downs, their 34-year-old lefty reliever having a decent season, is in high demand. Downs has thrown 42.1 innings over 47 appearances and is sporting a 2.34 with 10 walks and 35 strike outs. Lefties are hitting just .182/.308/.309 in 65 plate appearances against the southpaw, and both the Yankees and Red Sox are rumored to be very interested.
There is but one problem: The Blue Jays are asking for the world. According to Jon Heyman, Toronto asked for Jesus Montero, a laughable proposal, and George A. King says the Blue Jays wanted Joba Chamberlain. (Toronto has reportedly asked for Casey Kelly or Jose Igelsias from the Red Sox for their reliever.) Downs would be a great addition to the bullpen with Damaso Marte out and Boone Logan as the club’s only left-hander, but at that price, the trade isn’t not even worth discussing. Outside of the greats, no reliever — and particularly not a 34-year-old — is worth a player of Joba’s or Montero’s caliber.
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