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Kristaps Porzingis, Nolan Arenado, and the Yankees

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Arenado. (Joe Mahoney/Getty)

At the end of the week, the Knicks did something shocking that made a lot of people angry, as they are wont to do. Rather hastily, it seems, they traded injured-but-promising forward Kristaps Porzingis (and others) to the Dallas Mavericks for Dennis Smith, Jr. and a bunch of cap space. They’ll use that cap space to lure max contract-worthy free agents, just like they did post-2010 when they were able to sign…no one but Amare Stoudemire.

On January 31st, the Rockies avoided arbitration with Nolan Arenado, to whom the Yankees have been linked this offseason. Not just that, but Mike himself noted that the team’s owner is optimistic that the two parties can work out an extension now, rather than having to wait until 2019-20’s free agency period.

What do these two unrelated things have to do with the Yankees? They’re instructive, offering lessons the Yankees should take during this offseason: don’t waste a good thing when you’ve got it and don’t wait until next year.

The Knicks have been objectively terrible for a while now, much worse than the Yankees have been in decades. But in recent years, they had one thing going for them: Porzingis. Shelved as he may be this year, he was and is popular among his peers and fans for his unicorn skillset and talents. Undeniably, he was the one good thing you could count on for the future, especially considering the high draft pick the Knicks are likely to land after this season. He’s a good player with the potential to get better, something you build around. Obviously, his apparent frustration with the Knicks outweighed that in their mind and they shipped him out for the potential brought on by big money. Still, the return for a player as unique as Porzingis seems underwhelming and if they were going to move him before this week, they could’ve gotten something better. It’s unlikely that the Knicks would compete for a championship as soon as the Yankees will (this year, next year, etc.), but there’s something analogous in their situations.

The Yankees have an incredibly talented young core of players that they’ve supplemented by adding Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino. But by not adding the bigger pieces–Manny Machado and Bryce Harper–they risk not doing quite enough to push this talented team over the top. The Yankees are going to be very good in 2019; they’re going to win a lot of games and could, conceivably, win the World Series. Adding Harper, Machado, or both doesn’t guarantee them winning the World Series, of course, but it would go a long way towards helping. The Yankees aren’t selling a central piece like the Knicks did, but like the Knicks and their trade return, they risk not getting all they can from this core, from this very open window of competition.

Similarly, the Yankees can’t take a ‘wait till next year’ approach to fix any remaining holes or make any additions because, as an Arenado extension would show, your plans for next year can fall apart the minute another team does something. Man plans, baseball laughs.

The Yankees opting for Arenado–should he be available–isn’t ostensibly bad; he’s a great player that any team would be happy to have. But that’s just in a vacuum. Having him next year after not having Manny Machado this year is, relatively speaking, bad. Do not wait until next year. The better, younger player is right there for the taking, as is another younger, better player in Bryce Harper.

Given what I’m saying here, it feels like this should’ve been written in November or December. But here we are in February without these two great players signed, despite fitting the roster. Now, we’ve watched the Yankees’ ‘neighbor’ do something ill-advised and are watching as a potential target is starting to disappear. The 2019 Yankees are poised to do good things, but by not capitalizing on what they have, by waiting for next year, they’re holding back from doing great things.

Thoughts two weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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(Presswire)

We are now only two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. It is so close and yet not close enough. The first Grapefruit League game is three weeks and four days away. Can’t wait. Here are some scattered thoughts on this Wednesday morning.

1. The Yankees are set in the late innings. It’ll be Aroldis Chapman in the ninth with Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino setting him up. That leaves Jonathan Holder and the two other bullpen spots to handle everything else, and the more I think about it, the more I expect Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa to get those final two spots. (Given the roster right now, anyway.) That doesn’t mean Kahnle and Cessa will keep those spots all season. Just that I think they’ll get them on Opening Day. Being out of minor league options is part of it. Neither can be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers and I don’t think either would clear. All things being equal, might as well preserve the pitching depth early in the season. Kahnle was legitimately excellent in 2017 and should be given an opportunity to show whether he can do it again, and I don’t mean eight or nine Grapefruit League innings. Give him some time in regular season games and see what’s up. As for Cessa, the Yankees have given him chance after chance, and I assume that means they like him. Last year the Yankees did not allow a starter to throw 100 pitches until April 22nd, their 20th game of the season, and in all likelihood they will ease their starters into things again. That means they’ll need a long man and Cessa can be that long man. Anyway, that’s my guess right now, that Kahnle and Cessa will get the final two bullpen spots out of Spring Training. I doubt they’ll keep them all season because that’s just the way things work. Eventually a bullpen spot or two will turn into a revolving door.

2. Speaking of bullpen roles, last week Ottavino said he expects to see a lot of right-on-right matchup work, though I’m not sure if that was him speculating, or revealing what he’d been told by the Yankees. “We have some guys who have a little more strength versus left-handed hitters, even though they’re right-handed pitchers, like Chad Green and Dellin Betances. I’ve been pretty tough on righties in my career, so I expect to get a lot of righty-on-righty matchups given our bullpen depth,” he said to Dan Martin. First of all, if that is Ottavino speculating, it’s pretty neat he’s already looking into his new teammates to learn their strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, other than Betances, who is the guy I want on the mound in a big spot against any hitter, Ottavino is the obvious candidate to face tough righties. His slider is devastating. Last season he held righties to a .138/.231/.236 (.215 wOBA) batting line with a 39.4% strikeout rate. He was good against lefties (.252 wOBA and 32.4 K%) and outstanding against righties. When Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez or Tommy Pham or Vlad Guerrero Jr. come up before Dellin’s assigned inning, I want Ottavino on the mound, not Green or Britton. Those guys are good too, don’t get me wrong, but Ottavino is one of the top right-on-right bullpen options in baseball. That’s how the Yankees should use him. That he can hold his own (more than hold his own, really) against lefties is a nice bonus. Ottavino said he expects a lot of right-on-right work and that’s how Aaron Boone and the Yankees should plan to use him. That’s how he’s most valuable.

3. One last point on Ottavino: Does anyone really care about his Babe Ruth comments? Ottavino was asked about them during his introductory conference call last week and it’s been presented as a potential problem in several places (like here and here and here). The general theme in those pieces is Ottavino dissed Babe Ruth and is therefore already on the fan base’s bad side, so he better pitch well, otherwise he’s really going to hear boos. I mean, really? Here are the Ruth comments, via Ron Blum:

“I had an argument with a coach in Triple-A about Babe Ruth’s effectiveness in today’s game,” Ottavino told MLB.com’s Statcast podcast. “And this was like 10 years ago. I said, look, Babe Ruth, with that swing, swinging that bat, I got him hitting a buck-40 with eight homers.”

“And he’s like, ‘Are you nuts? Babe Ruth would hit .370 with 60 homers,’” Ottavino went on. “And I’m like, I would strike Babe Ruth out every time. I’m not trying to disrespect him, rest in peace, shout out to Babe Ruth. But it was a different game. I mean the guy ate hot dogs and drank beer and did whatever he did, and it was just a different game.”

Would Ottavino strike out Ruth every time? No, probably not, but I imagine he’d strike him out much more often than not. Ruth never saw mid-90 fastballs and he certainly never saw a breaking ball like Ottavino’s. Humans are bigger, stronger, and faster now than they were a century ago. Ruth was historically great relative to his era. In this era, I’m not sure he gets out of Single-A ball. Anyway, back to the original question. Does anyone really care about this? I feel like Ottavino’s comments are getting more attention in the media than among fans. I think (most) fans are willing to admit that yeah, present day Ottavino would dominate back in the day Ruth. Had Ottavino said he’d strike out Derek Jeter or Don Mattingly every time, well, that’s different. That would annoy people. Babe Ruth though? I’d like to think the coverage outweighs the actual concern here. If Ottavino stinks, he’ll get booed. That’s just the way it is. I can’t imagine enough folks are so bothered by the Ruth comments that Ottavino will hear boos even when pitching well. What a non-story.

4. The Yankees have signed an awful lot of players to minor league contracts this offseason. More than usual, it seems. Might as well dig up the numbers. Here are the players with big league time who joined the Yankees on a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training the last few years:

  • 2019 (8): Rex Brothers, Billy Burns, Danny Coulombe, Danny Farquhar, David Hale, Drew Hutchison, Ryan Lavarnway, Gio Urshela
  • 2018 (5): Danny Espinosa, David Hale, Erik Kratz, Wade LeBlanc, Jace Peterson
  • 2017 (6): Wilkin Castillo, Ji-Man Choi, Jason Gurka, Pete Kozma, Donovan Solano, Ruben Tejada
  • 2016 (8): Carlos Corporan, Tyler Cloyd, Jonathan Diaz, Pete Kozma, Vinnie Pestano, Eddy Rodriguez, Donovan Solano, Anthony Swarzak
  • 2015 (5): Andrew Bailey, Scott Baker, Cole Figueroa, Nick Noonan, Eddy Rodriguez

Eh, I’m mistaken. When you average six such non-roster invitees from 2015-18, including eight in 2016, having eight in 2019 isn’t crazy. I guessing eight this year stands out to me because the Yankees only had five last year. Does this mean anything? It could. The Yankees have some injured 40-man roster players who will either not participate in Spring Training (Didi Gregorius, Jordan Montgomery) or be limited (Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller), and they need players to fill in the gaps. Also, the farm system is not what it was in recent years. Last year the Yankees didn’t need a second non-roster outfielder like Matt Lipka because they had Billy McKinney and Jake Cave. They didn’t need four extra relievers like this year because Heller was healthy and Gio Gallegos and Cody Carroll were still in the organization. That’s the way it goes. The Yankees graduated several top prospects to the big leagues and traded several others for MLB help. Now they have to replenish their Triple-A depth with (slightly more than usual) minor league contract deals.

5. A few weeks ago Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) passed along word the Yankees hired Dillon Lawson away from the Astros to be their new minor league hitting coordinator. He’ll help create and implement hitter development strategies in the farm system. Lawson, who joined Houston from the University of Missouri, has extensively researched pitch recognition, and was called the “hitting coach of the future” by one of his former Astros colleagues for his data-driven philosophies and state of the art training methods. From Adler:

The understanding that some hitters have a better eye for recognizing what pitch is coming than others is not new. (Southern Illinois professor) Dr. Fadde and Lawson have attempted to analyze that advantage, and make it a skill that can be specifically developed in hitters.

One of the most effective tools is having hitters watch video of pitches being thrown, then cutting off the feed before the pitch completes its trajectory. The hitter is asked to guess what type of pitch type they saw. Ideally, a hitter should be looking for indicators like a wrist looking skinnier for the pronation of a curveball or slower arm action for a changeup.

I find this interesting for a lot of reasons, including the fact Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, has pitch recognition issues. I don’t think the Yankees hired Lawson specifically to help Florial — there are a lot of hitters in the minors who need to improve their pitch recognition — but it is certainly convenient the new hitting coordinator’s strength is the top prospect’s weakness. I’m not sure whether Lawson’s training methods fit under the “analytics” umbrella but they certainly appear to be new-school techniques. We know teams use analytics to identify free agent and trade targets. These days I find myself much more interested in how they use analytics to help their players get better. Maybe what Lawson does isn’t truly “analytics.” Point is, it is something new and modern, and now the Yankees are doing it. Helping your own players become better is the new thing these days and I’d love to learn more about the process behind it. I find it fascinating.

6. Now that he’s in the Hall of Fame, will the Yankees put Mike Mussina in the Monument Park? They don’t have to retire his number (No. 35 has been back in circulation for years) but perhaps a plaque would be in order? For what it’s worth, there are Hall of Famers who played a long time — a very long time — with the Yankees and are not in Monument Park. Dave Winfield doesn’t have a plaque or anything. Earle Combs played his entire career with the Yankees and he’s not in Monument Park. Tony Lazzeri and Waite Hoyt aren’t either. Mussina, as good as he was, never won a World Series with the Yankees nor a Cy Young. Heck, Mussina never even made an All-Star Game as a Yankee. (It’s true.) There are only two players in Monument Park who never won a World Series with the Yankees: Don Mattingly and Mel Stottlemyre, and Stottlemyre eventually won four rings as a coach. Mattingly is in Monument Park despite not having a ring because he was a great career-long Yankee and also because he was so beloved. There’s precedent for leaving a Hall of Famer out of Monument Park, even one who played with the Yankees as long as Mussina. I don’t think the Yankees will give him a plaque. I do hope they honor him with a day at Yankee Stadium though. Something more than a longer than usual intro at Old Timers’ Day.

7. Forget about denial, bargaining, and depression. I keep going back and forth between anger and acceptance with the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper situation. Those are my two stages of grief. Angry the Yankees appear content to pass on two prime-aged stars and acceptance that there’s nothing I can do about it. Just whatever, man. I try to stay pretty mellow about baseball — it’s baseball, it’s supposed to be fun, and getting mad about it doesn’t improve my life in any way — but the Machado and Harper thing is infuriating. It’s not just me either. My work at CBS exposes me to all 30 fan bases and they all seem to be angry about the overall state of baseball right now. Maybe it’s just my little social media bubble that feels that way and the majority of fans are a-okay with things. I’m not sure that’s the case. How is fans being angry good for the baseball? How is having so many teams not trying to compete good for baseball? How is this good for baseball:

Not that long ago MLB’s offseason was busy in November and December, and the early part of January, then quiet for a few weeks. The big free agents would sign and the top trade candidates would get moved during the Winter Meetings (or thereabouts), the top Scott Boras client would sign sometime in January, and then things slowed down and we all longed for Spring Training. Nowadays we wait and wait and wait for the the best free agents to sign. It’s not just Harper and Machado either. It’s Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel too, plus scores of mid-range free agents. It is exhausting and I think it’s bad for the game overall. MLB owners have turned their teams into get rich quick schemes and I think we’re starting to see some of the damage. Attendance has declined the last two years — league attendance dropped three million (!) from 2017-18 to its lowest level since 2003 — and now a seemingly growing portion of fans are getting sick of the offseason. Perhaps the league doesn’t care as long as the owners get rich. At some point though, MLB is going to have to do something to improve public relations, and it won’t be easy. There won’t be a Sammy Sosa/Mark McGwire home run chase to save them this time. I know commissioner Rob Manfred works for the owners, but he’s also supposed to be a steward of the game, and the state of things isn’t great and getting worse.

Appreciate CC Sabathia in his Final Year

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Let’s get one more for the big fella. (Elsa/Getty)

Something felt off the day the Yankees hosted the Houston Astros in the Bronx for the 2015 Wild Card Game. Even before the Yanks were shut out by Dallas Keuchel in a masterful 3 hit performance, the atmosphere was subdued. That the Yankees were led by Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann surely didn’t help; this wasn’t a team, like the opposing Astros, that felt like its best days were yet to come. But there was something else: a day earlier, CC Sabathia had checked himself into rehab for alcohol abuse.

It’s hard to remember whether it felt like we’d truly seen the last of CC, but it certainly felt like CC’s days as an effective Major League starting pitcher were behind him. In the three seasons prior, he’d pitched only 424.1 innings and missed most of 2014 with an injury. What we saw when he was on the mound looked nothing like the CC Sabathia we’d been accustomed to seeing: with reduced velocity and diminished stuff, he had a 4.81 ERA (83 ERA+), a WHIP of 1.4 and was worth only 0.6 bWAR.

That Sabathia had a 2.17 ERA over his final 5 starts went mostly unnoticed, but as Jay Jaffe noted in an astute column in May, this was the beginning of a late-career renaissance for the big lefty. He had taken a lesson from Andy Pettitte, another lefty who revitalized his career in its final days, and began utilizing a cut fastball. When Sabathia returned in 2016, he had not only begun the process of overcoming his alcoholism—he returned as a pitcher with a second wind.

Across 481.1 innings since Opening Day 2016, Sabathia has a 3.76 ERA (117 ERA+), a figure which has improved with each season, and has been worth 8.3 bWAR. That success is powered by late movement and pinpoint control that minimizes the quality of contact against him. In 2018, batters only squared up on CC 28.5% of the time, good for 8th in the league; by contrast, he induced soft contact 25.1% of the time, which ranked 4th. No pitcher induced softer contact, as batters averaged only 84.4 mph off when they made contact. Few, if any, 5th starters are more effective.

His success comes even as the quality of his repertoire has diminished. His average fastball velocity in 2018 was just under 92 mph, a significant decline from over 95 mph in 2009—a big reason why he throws the pitch only 2% of the time compared to nearly half of the time a decade ago (he now uses the cutter roughly 50% of the time). Only the most dedicated and talented are capable of reinventing themselves as a completely new version of themselves: remember, he’d never thrown a cutter before 2016.

As unlikely as such a renaissance may have seemed in 2015, there were always signs that CC would be up to the task. When the Yankees signed him 11 years ago, he was one of baseball’s most feared pitchers, with an overpowering fastball and intimidating lefty physique. He was fresh off a legendary post-deadline performance with the Milwaukee Brewers, and inked a 7 year, $161 million contract to christen the new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were short on pitching, had been bounced in the ALDS 3 of the previous 4 seasons (missing the postseason in the other), and needed an ace to rescue them. CC was tasked with being the guy to do it.

He somehow lived up to those expectations. In his first 4 seasons in pinstripes (2009-12), he boasted a 3.22 ERA (135 ERA+) in 905 innings pitched, good for 20.7 bWAR. His 1.98 ERA in the 2009 postseason, which earned him ALCS MVP honors, helped carry the Yankees to their 27th championship. Over those 4 years, he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting 3 times and made 3 All-Star Games. He was a dominating pitcher in the height of his prime—a sight the Yankees and their fans hadn’t seen in quite some time.

That’s a big reason why, I suspect, watching CC Sabathia pitch is so much fun these days. Watching him induce slow grounder after slow grounder isn’t the same as watching him overpower David Ortiz, of course, but in his new, deliberate methods there are echoes of the flame-throwing ace of yesterday.

CC approaches several career milestones as he prepares for what will be his final year as a big leaguer. With three more wins, CC will have won more games as a Yankee than any pitcher save 9 others. Four more wins and he reaches 250, which, in the age of the almighty bullpen, is no small achievement. 14 more strikeouts and he will be the 17th pitcher in MLB history (and only the 3rd lefty) to reach the 3,000 career strikeout mark.

As he reaches these significant figures, all of which should come fairly early in the year barring significant injury, we will be asked to debate his Hall of Fame credentials (I’d vote for him, but he is a close case), but those questions can wait for 6 more years. Rather than pondering his future legacy, we should instead appreciate his final season and be thankful it will come in pinstripes.

After all, this was the man who brought the Yankees back to the promised land on his first try, seeming at home alongside Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. He stuck it out through the team’s less successful days, hit rock-bottom in his personal life and rebounded into an unrecognizable but still effective crafty lefty—all while radiating the affable, lovable aura that has made him a clubhouse leader and mentor to the next generation of Yankee stars.

We should be sure to enjoy his last campaign—for we will see countless other pitchers don the pinstripes, but there will only ever be one CC Sabathia.

Thoughts three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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(Presswire)

T-minus three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Tampa and begin Spring Training. Pitchers and catchers reporting is the biggest non-news days of the year — pitchers and catchers show up to the complex and take their physicals, and that’s pretty much it — but it is the start of the new season, and that’s exciting. We’re only three weeks away. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts.

1. I don’t have a whole lot to say following the Hall of Fame announcement. I’m stunned and thrilled Mariano Rivera was a unanimous selection. I didn’t think it would happen. Then again, it is close to impossible to make a case against him, so if anyone was ever going to get in unanimously, it would be Rivera. I suspect we’ll see another unanimous Hall of Famer before long now that the barrier has been broken. I’m also happy Mike Mussina made it into the Hall of Fame and, even though he is responsible for the first time baseball crushed my soul, I’m glad Edgar Martinez got in as well. Man could that dude hit. I don’t think either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is getting in at this point. They’ve hit a wall the last few years and haven’t gained much support, and they only have three years to go on the ballot. Andy Pettitte getting such little support (9.9%) surprised me. I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, but I thought he’d get north of 30%. Shows what I know. There aren’t many slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in the coming years. Derek Jeter hits the ballot next year, David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez will be eligible in three years, Carlos Beltran in four years, and Adrian Beltre in five years. If Bonds and Clemens don’t get in, A-Rod won’t get in, so at best four potential first ballot Hall of Famers will join the ballot in the next five years. That means that many more voting spots will be available for other players. Curt Schilling, Omar Vizquel, and Larry Walker seem most likely to benefit from that in my opinion, though next year is Walker’s final year on the ballot. We’ll see. As for this year, I’m thrilled Mussina got in and I’m thrilled Rivera was unanimous. Two all-time favorites right there.

2. Given the bullpen, the Yankees should use an opener this coming season. They don’t have to do it every game. Just select games based on matchups. Why not let Dellin Betances face the top of the lineup when you still have Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino available for the late innings? I wouldn’t bother using an opener with Luis Severino or James Paxton. When they’re on, they can dominate any lineup. Ride those horses. CC Sabathia is an obvious candidate for an opener though. The problem there is he has a very specific and longer than usual warmup routine because of his knee, and I’m not sure it’s something he could do in the bullpen during the first inning rather than on the field before the game. It would take an adjustment to his specialized warmup routine and veteran pitchers hate that. To me, J.A. Happ is the best candidate for an opener. He has some experience pitching in relief, mostly early in his career but it’s more than everyone else in the rotation combined, and it doesn’t seem like there would be any issues with his warmup routine. If the Yankees can use an opener to avoid letting Happ (or Sabathia, if possible) face the top of the lineup one time per start, it’s worth doing. They can use a shutdown reliever against the top of the order in that first inning, use Happ (or Sabathia) two and a half times through the lineup, then go to the bullpen. The reliever is either going to pitch in the first inning or in the later innings. In the first inning, at least the Yankees know they’ll get the matchup they want, and they’ll know the game will (most likely) be close on the scoreboard. The Yankees don’t have to use an opener three times each turn through the rotation like the Rays. Every once in a while will work though. Maybe 25-30 times a season?

3. We are now entering top 100 prospect list season. Baseball America’s top 100 list comes out today and apparently the Yankees will be shut out. That’s weird. Are there really 100 prospects in baseball better than Estevan Florial? A 20-year-old with those tools puts up a .354 OBP and a 110 wRC+ in 75 High-A games around wrist surgery and goes from No. 38 on last year’s top 100 list to unranked this year? Seems like an overreaction, but whatever. To each his own. I suspect the Baseball America list will be the outlier. I expect to see Florial and Jonathan Loaisiga on most top 100 lists this spring. Someone like Anthony Seigler or Deivi Garcia or even Mike King could sneak on to a random top 100 list as well, though I’d bet against it. Florial is a clear top 100 caliber prospect to me. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and command but not top 100 health. The injury history is what prevents him from being a tippy top prospect. Anyway, Baseball America’s top 100 list comes out today and MLB.com’s comes out this weekend. Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus will release their top 100 lists soon as well. I expect to see Florial on all non-Baseball America top 100 lists and Loaisiga on some top 100 lists. After having six or more top 100 prospects the last few years, the Yankees are down to one or maybe two, and that is perfectly fine with me because so many of those former top 100 prospects are now wearing pinstripes and having an impact. That’s the best reason for a farm system to decline in quality.

4. The Yankees have signed five free agents this offseason (Britton, Happ, Ottavino, DJ LeMahieu, Troy Tulowitzki) and none of the five contracts are guaranteed beyond three years. Britton’s deal includes that funky two-year club option/one-year player option, but the Yankees control the fourth year, not Britton. The Yankees did not go beyond three guaranteed years this offseason. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in three years, in December 2021, and it seems to me the Yankees are trying to leave themselves as much roster and payroll flexibility as possible going into the next CBA. Chances are I’m overthinking this. It’s not like other teams are handing out long-term contracts. In the Yankees’ case though, they’re a World Series contender in the game’s largest market, and they’ve already passed on one high-end free agent (Patrick Corbin) and are poised to pass on two others (Manny Machado and Bryce Harper) even though they are such obvious fits for the roster. They didn’t want to give Corbin a sixth year covering his age 35 season and instead opted to sign Happ for his age 36-37 (and possibly 38) seasons. Hmmm. The upcoming CBA could change baseball’s economic system dramatically — I’m not entirely sure that will that happen, but it could — and it seems the Yankees want to make sure they have as much financial freedom going into the new CBA, hence the short-term contracts. I think that was at least part of the reason the Yankees went with the “spread the money around” approach this offseason rather than going for big money deals.

Britton. (Presswire)

5. The Yankees don’t have much money coming off the books next offseason. It’s Sabathia ($8M) and Brett Gardner ($7.5M), and three guys the Yankees should try to sign long-term in Betances ($7.25M), Didi Gregorius ($11.75M), and Aaron Hicks ($6M). That’s pretty much it unless Chapman opts out. No other large money contracts expire after this season. The Yankees will have to pay or replace Gregorius, Dellin, and Hicks next winter and give Aaron Judge a potentially record-breaking first year arbitration salary. There’s a long way to go between now and then and so much will change. Right now, with so little money coming off the books after the season, it makes me wonder if the Yankees are in for a quiet 2019-20 offseason. Maybe not quiet, but devoid of big money acquisitions. The payroll clears up in two years when LeMahieu, Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, and maybe Happ and Britton come off the payroll. Next offseason the Yankees could be cash-strapped and limited in their spending though. The moves this offseason are as much about 2020 as they are 2019. There might not be much maneuverability next winter.

6. Remember two years ago when the Yankees held that fun Winter Warm-Up event? It was a series of events, really. Players participated in events throughout the city for a week, then there was a big town hall with top prospects. Here’s a recap. By all accounts the Winter Warm-Up was a smashing success. Fans and players alike loved it. Then the Yankees decided to never do it again, apparently. Nothing the last two winters. That is disappointing. It seems pretty clear now the Winter Warm-Up was intended to get fans excited about the future (hence prospects being involved) because the Yankees had missed the postseason three of the previous four seasons, and they didn’t expect to be good in 2017. They called it a “transition” year, remember. They didn’t expect Judge to become an instant MVP candidate and the young players to carry the team to Game Seven of the ALCS. Once that happened, the Yankees apparently determined they no longer need to do any fan outreach because the team being good is enough. Other teams throughout the league are holding caravan events this month and I see it all on social media, and it amazes me the most popular team in the sport does nothing like it. Actions speak louder than words, and the Yankees are making it pretty darn clear fan outreach and cultivating young fans is a secondary concern. Running a caravan event when you’re expecting a down season and then nothing at all when you know you’re good is kinda insulting, no? Fans aren’t important enough for a caravan event when the Yankees are good. Only when the team is expecting a lean year and doesn’t want to lose ticket sales and television ratings. How so very lame.

7. Another thing the Yankees don’t do that I wish they did is play a spring prospects game. I could’ve sworn they played one years ago but I can’t find anything on the ol’ google machine. I think I might be confusing it with the West Point game. Anyway, the idea is the big league Yankees play an exhibition game against their minor leaguers to close out Spring Training rather than a game in Atlanta or Miami or Washington. (They went to SunTrust the last two springs and they’re going Nationals Park this spring). The could play the game right in Tampa, or maybe even go to Scranton or Trenton or Staten Island. Wouldn’t that be fun? The Cardinals will close out their spring schedule with an exhibition game against their Triple-A affiliate in Memphis this year. They’ve been doing that for a while now. The Reds play what they call the Reds Futures Game each spring, which is big leaguers vs. prospects. They play it in a different minor league affiliate ballpark each year. That seems pretty cool, no? Imagine Deivi Garcia vs. Judge, or Florial stealing a hit away from Gleyber Torres in the gap. I don’t know about you, but a spring prospects game sounds awfully fun to me. I am pro-fun and I am trying to come up with ways to make the Yankees more fun. A winter caravan event and a prospects game would be a good start.

Update: I knew I wasn’t crazy. The Yankees did play a spring prospects game in 2010. It was called the Yankees Futures Game. Here’s the box score. There’s some serious prospect nostalgia in there.

8. I was never a huge football fan and these last few years my football fandom has whittled down to nothing. I watched maybe an hour of regular season NFL football this year. I do watch the playoffs though, and wow, Tony Romo is some announcer, huh? He explained what happened (in some cases, he explained what would happen) and why it happened in a way a casual fan like me could understand, and it increased my enjoyment of the game. Also, Romo is genuinely enthusiastic about the sport. It’s a shame it’s gotten to the point where that is noteworthy. So many baseball announcers spend the broadcast complaining about the game and the longing for the old days. John Smoltz in the World Series was as bad as it gets. A fan new to baseball would’ve thought the sport is broken beyond repair given Smoltz’s open contempt for the modern game. Baseball needs more broadcasters like Romo. Someone who loves the modern game and can explain it. I think Yankees fans are pretty lucky with the YES Network broadcast team, honestly. Michael Kay can get annoying when he goes into radio show mode, but it’s obvious he loves the game and his job. David Cone understands analytics and is very good at blending “this is baseball now” with “this was baseball when I played.” Ken Singleton as well. He’s fantastic. I know it’s cool to hate on the local broadcast crew, but believe me, I watch a ton of baseball and the YES Network has a comfortably above-average broadcast team. Lots of other fans are stuck with Smoltz facsimiles. Guys who complain about the game and long for the old days. That is bad for baseball. MLB desperately wants a younger fan base. The good way to develop one is finding broadcasters who love baseball and tell you why the game is great, not why it was better in their day.

Thoughts after the Yankees agree to sign Adam Ottavino

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(Dustin Bradford/Getty)

The Yankees came into the offseason wanting two relievers and they have added two relievers. Last week the Yankees agreed to a three-year, $27M contract with Adam Ottavino. That comes two weeks after they re-signed Zach Britton. The bullpen’s looking pretty good right now and my list of six things the Yankees still have to do this winter is down to five. Here are some thoughts on the Ottavino deal.

1. There are three things I really like about Ottavino. One, he misses a ton of bats. This is a big deal for me. I want as few balls in play as possible in the late innings of a close game. At all times, really, but especially in the late innings of close games. Last year 336 pitchers threw at least 50 innings. Ottavino had the ninth highest strikeout rate (36.3%) and 20th lowest contact rate (68.1%). That’ll work. Two, he dominated left-handed batters last season. Held them to a .174/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) batting line with 32.4% strikeouts and 47.1% grounders. (Five intentional walks are inflating the OBP a bit. Remove them and it’s a .291 OBP.) Relievers without a significant platoon split are my jam. And three, Ottavino knows all about pitching in a tough environment. Pitching in Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general is no fun. It’s a very hitter friendly home ballpark in a division with three other hitter friendly ballparks. It’s not easy. Well, Ottavino spent the last seven years of his career calling Coors Field home, so he knows all about pitching in a tough park, where every mistake could wind up over the fence. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to succeed in Yankee Stadium, of course. I just like that he has experience in a very difficult home ballpark. It’s one fewer mental adjustment he has to make, in theory.

2. I’ve linked to it before and I’m going to link to it again: Ottavino turned his career around in a vacant Harlem storefront last offseason. It’s a wonderful story. I suspect many players would benefit from that level of self-analysis. I mention this again because it clearly shows Ottavino is into analytics and state-of-the-art training methods, and the Yankees are one of the most analytically inclined teams in the game. The Rockies … are not. (In October, Marc Carig and Eno Sarris reported the Yankees employ approximately 20 analysts. The Rockies have four.) I’m looking forward to seeing how Ottavino and the Yankees work together. Or, rather, seeing the results of their efforts, because we usually don’t get to peek behind the curtain to see the process. Maybe the result is not Ottavino getting better, the way he did last year. Maybe the result is simply maintaining that level of performance deeper into his career. We are talking about a reliever entering his mid-30s, after all. Long story short, Ottavino and the Yankees appear to be a very good fit for each other given their commitment to analytics and using data to get better. Not many players are open to these ideas, which is fine. To each their own. Ottavino is and now he’s with one of the top analytic organizations in the game.

3. That all said, Ottavino does come with risk. Considerable risk, I’d say. There’s a reason he had to rebuild himself last offseason and that’s because he stunk in 2017. He is one season removed from a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) with a 16.1% walk rate in 53.1 innings. Colorado left him off their 2017 NL Wild Card Game roster. This is about as spectacular a meltdown as you’ll see:

Yikes! That was a long time ago though. Ottavino worked hard last offseason and corrected whatever was wrong with him in 2017. He failed, he adjusted, he succeeded. This is still a reminder Ottavino is not bringing a long track record to the table. Only twice in his career has he performed like he did in 2018 across a full season: 2013 and 2018. The Yankees are assuming some risk here and I think that, given the state of the bullpen, they’re better able to absorb that risk than most teams. Should Ottavino struggle with his control again, the Yankees have the depth to cover the late innings, the same way they had the depth to cover the late innings two years ago, when Dellin Betances lost the plate. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. Even the best relievers can have poor seasons out of nowhere. If the Yankees get all their relievers clicking on all cylinders this year, they’ll be unstoppable. If Ottavino struggles like he did in 2017 again, they won’t be as good as they can be, but they’ll have enough high-end bullpen arms to handle all those high-leverage innings.

4. Potentially stupid question: Is Ottavino a luxury? I mean, there’s always room for another high-end reliever in the bullpen, especially these days, but there are only so many high-leverage innings to go around. Dan Szymborski wrote about this following the Adam Warren trade. Long story short, as effective as Warren was last year, he was far down the bullpen depth and pitching in low-leverage spots. It was a waste of his ability. So, rather than continue using Warren that way, the Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip and let cheaper relievers (Luis Cessa and A.J. Cole) pitch in those situations. That’s the argument against “too many good relievers.” There aren’t enough high-leverage innings for everyone. I don’t agree with it but I do understand it. There are three reasons I don’t consider Ottavino a luxury. One, injuries and poor performance happen, and I want as many quality options as possible going into the season. At the deadline I’d rather be the team in position to trade away an Adam Warren than the team that needs an Adam Warren, you know? Two, starters are throwing fewer innings with each passing season, which means more innings for the bullpen. Inevitably, many of those extra bullpen innings are high-leverage innings. And three, every inning in the postseason should be treated as a high-leverage inning. That’s really what the super bullpen idea is about. The postseason. I know the Yankees had a super bullpen last year and I know they lost in the ALDS. That doesn’t mean they should stop building super bullpens. In October, when every single inning means something, the more quality relievers a team has, the greater their chances of success. Across the 162-game regular season, yeah, maybe Ottavino is a luxury. I don’t consider him a luxury for the postseason though, and besides, these are the Yankees. They should be all about luxury items.

5. I am curious to see what the bullpen roles will be this season. They tend to change year-to-year — at this point last year not many folks were counting on Dellin Betances taking over as the unquestioned eighth inning guy again — and pitchers work themselves into roles organically. They just kinda happen. I can see these being the bullpen roles going into the season:

  • Closer: Aroldis Chapman
  • Eighth Inning: Dellin Betances
  • Seventh Inning: Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino (based on matchups?)
  • Fireman: Chad Green

That leaves Jonathan Holder and the two still to be determined relievers for all other situations. They’re the “only when losing” relievers, basically. David Robertson was so great as the fireman and now I’m not sure who fits best in that role. Betances is an easy target for stolen bases. Ottavino still walks a few too many. Britton allows a few too many balls in play for my liking. Green was used in that role quite a bit last season and I imagine he’ll get the first crack at it this year. We’ll see. Like I said, bullpen roles tend to change throughout the season, so there’s no sense sweating them in January. I could see what I’ve laid out above being the roles going into the year, then the Yankees adjusting as necessary. This’ll all work itself out and I’m curious to see how.

6. Do the Yankees have the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in baseball right now? Sounds crazy, I know, but it might be true. On paper, at least. Who knows how things will play out on the field. Here are the top projected 2019 pitching staffs according to FanGraphs:

  1. Yankees: +22.8 WAR
  2. Indians: +21.9 WAR
  3. Astros: +20.3 WAR
  4. Mets: +19.9 WAR
  5. Dodgers: +19.6 WAR

Reminder: Projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate a player’s current true talent level and right now the numbers think the Yankees have the most pitching talent in baseball. It’s not all because of the bullpen either. The Yankees have the third highest projected rotation WAR in baseball. Again, we’ll see how it plays out on the field, because injuries and other unexpected things happen, but that is pretty cool. Sonny Gray is going to be traded and I’d like the Yankees to bring in a veteran swingman/sixth starter type — I’ve banged on the Francisco Liriano drum a few times this winter and there’s no reason to stop now — and I suspect they will. Otherwise I feel great about the bullpen and very good about the rotation top four. I’m also more confident in CC Sabathia than many folks seem to be. Maybe the anti-Sabathia folks started following baseball in the ALDS. Well, whatever. Over the weekend Bob wrote the Yankees have an underrated pitching staff. That is true. This isn’t a good pitching staff. This is a great pitching staff with a chance to be one of the very best in the game.

7. Does the Ottavino signing mean anything for Betances long-term? Betances will be a free agent next offseason and the Yankees already have three big money relievers on the books in Britton, Chapman, and Ottavino. Those three will combine for $39.2M against the luxury tax payroll the next three seasons. Would the Yankees really give a market rate contract to Betances and spend something like $50M annually on four relievers? Maybe they would. Two things to consider here. One, Betances will make $7.25M this year, so the Yankees are already at $46.45M for four relievers in 2019. A market rate contract means Dellin would get something like a $5M raise after the season, and the extra $5M or so may not be a dealbreaker for the Yankees. And two, Chapman can opt out of his contract after the season, potentially freeing up $17.2M annually. That would obviously impact the team’s spending plans. The first two seasons of Chapman’s contract have been very good overall but also a bit of a mixed bag. In both seasons he spent a month on the disabled list (shoulder in 2017, knee in 2018) and had to be removed from the closer’s role for a few weeks. If that happens again this year, and his velocity continues to drop, I don’t see Chapman opting out. Walking away from two years and $34.4M would be awfully risky given how teams are treating free agents. With a good and a healthy season though, Chapman could opt-out, especially if Craig Kimbrel manages to cash in huge. We’ll see. Ultimately, the single biggest factor in the Yankees’ decision whether to re-sign Betances will be Dellin’s performance this year. With another great season, it’ll be awfully tough to let him walk, especially since we’re only talking a $5M or so raise on top of what he’s currently making. I don’t think the Ottavino (or Britton) deal means anything for Betances’ future with the team.

(Jeff Curry/Getty)

8. It seems to me the Yankees traded a third guaranteed year for a lower average annual value. Andrew Miller (two years, $25M with a vesting option) and David Robertson (two years, $23M with a club option) are roughly the same age as Ottavino and they landed two-year guarantees with a higher annual salary. Ottavino doesn’t have their track records, but it seemed to me he was in line for a similar contract. Two years at $11M to $12M per season, with some sort of third year option. Instead, he got the third guaranteed year, and the Yankees saved $2M to $3M annually. This wouldn’t be the first time the Yankees traded an extra year for a lower average annual salary and thus a lower luxury tax hit. They reportedly did the same thing with Chase Headley. Even with a higher luxury tax number, I would’ve preferred re-signing Robertson to signing Ottavino. They’re basically the same age and Ottavino’s track record is way shorter. His upside is basically what Robertson has been doing the last eight years. I am more confident in Robertson being great the next two years than I am Ottavino. That said, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two, and ultimately the Yankees got three years of Ottavino for only $4M more than the Phillies will pay for two years of Robertson (or $2M more than the Cardinals will pay for two years of Miller). This seems like a repeat of the 2014-15 offseason. That winter the Yankees let a known commodity in Robertson walk and replaced him with Miller, a similarly dominant reliever with a much shorter track record on a cheaper contract. That worked out quite well. Passing on Miller or Robertson in favor of Ottavino is a similar decision.

9. The Ottavino signing pushes the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll to $228.5M based on my back of the envelope math. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. The Yankees are either slightly above or closing in on the $226M second luxury tax threshold and the still not complete Sonny trade will give them breathing room. The $226M threshold may be the team’s limit. They get hit with a surtax at that point — their top 2020 draft pick moves back ten spots when they hit the $246M threshold, not the $226M threshold (my bad for screwing that up earlier) — and, generally speaking, it gives them less financial flexibility going forward. I am on team sign everyone. Bring me Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and spend that money. What’s the point of creating payroll flexibility if you’re not going to use it to land stars in their prime? Anyway, the Yankees are clearly going to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold this coming season. I didn’t think it would happen and I am happy to be wrong. Realistically, there’s no way now to get under the $206M threshold and stay there all season. Will they exceed the $226M threshold? Unless there’s a surprise Machado or Harper signing coming, I don’t think so. Trading Gray gives them about $5M in wiggle room under the $226M threshold and my number already includes an estimate for in-season injury and September call-ups, so that’s $5M for the trade deadline. It may not seem like much but it is, especially since the Yankees have shown a willingness to kick in an extra prospect to get the other team to eat some salary. The Yankees still aren’t running a payroll as high as the one they can almost certainly afford. At least now they have a payroll more commensurate with their status as a World Series contender in the game’s largest market. That’s better than nothing, I guess.

10. And finally, the big question on everyone’s mind: Will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0? No player in Yankees history has worn No. 0 (or No. 00 for that matter). Last week we polled the masses and the response was overwhelmingly in favor of letting Ottavino wear No. 0.

Should the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 and will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 are very different questions. Should they is an easy yes. It’s a uniform number. Why would a player wearing No. 0 bother anyone? They Yankees would probably sell more Ottavino shirts and jerseys with No. 0 than any other number. Will they let him wear No. 0 though? Giving a player No. 0 seems very un-Yankee-like. Then again, I never thought I’d see the day the Yankees wore throwback uniforms or gave a player his own cheering section, but that happened, so maybe they’re loosening up a bit. Eh, whatever. It’s just a uniform number and I’m not going to get worked up about it. Ottavino has worn other numbers as a big leaguer (Nos. 35 and 56 with the Cardinals and No. 37 early with the Rockies) and my guess is he’ll wear something other than No. 0 with the Yankees.

Thoughts on a Rainy Sunday

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(Presswire)

Good Sunday morning, readers. If you’re in the tri-state area, I hope you’re staying dry today and warm tomorrow. Today, I’ll offer a few random thoughts on the Yankees as we sit a little less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting.

Clint’s Comeback

This is one of the best Yankee-related tweets of the offseason. I know I’m not alone in this, but I’m incredibly excited for the return of Clint Frazier. He had just about the worst year a player can have last year and seeing him get back into the swing of things is more than enough to bring a smile to my face. Red Thunder The Panther will likely have to start out the year in the minors, but it’s not hard to see him taking over for Brett Gardner as Mike alluded to in the Friday mailbag. While Frazier shouldn’t stand in the way of signing him, one positive thing about the Yankees not signing Bryce Harper is that it keeps Frazier’s future within the organization. I’ve long been a big believer in him and his talent and, if healthy, I think he can establish himself as a big league player this year. Good luck in 2019, Clint. We’re rooting for you.

Playoff Pitching Prowess

Bobby is completely right when he says that the Yankees have one of the best rotations in baseball going into 2019. I’ve harped on this before, but the talent in the Yankee rotation is almost astounding. At peak levels, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton are aces. J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia as back end starters are great–an experienced, proven lefty and a borderline Hall of Famer? Hard to beat that. Paired with an elite bullpen, the Yankees’ pitching staff could make noise in the playoffs. There’s just one catch: they need to win the division to do that.

The Yankees are a damn good team and will likely win well north of 90 games, but will it be enough? They haven’t won a division title since 2012 and have played in three of the last four wild card games. Despite similar talent in the rotation at times, they’ve been unable to use it properly in a series because of that one game playoff.

If the Yankees manage to beat out Boston for the division title this year, they’ll finally be able to set their rotation the way they want and not have to worry about a gassed bullpen heading into the start of the ALDS. A top three of Severino, Tanaka, and Paxton is more than formidable in any series, especially a short one, and throwing Happ and/or Sabathia as long men out of the bullpen can help, too. Winning the division is much easier said than done, but it’s something the Yankees need to do to fully exploit the pitching talent they have.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Andujar Endgame 

At this point, it seems clear that the Yankees are hitching their third base wagon to Miguel Andujar. For good reason, they clearly believe in his bat. They also likely think that he can improve on defense or that they can mitigate his poor fielding through substitutions and lineup shuffling. But given how they treated him in the field in the playoffs, how long can we really buy that? Playing a significant amount of time at DH or a new position like first would probably cut down on the value Andujar has as a third baseman, even a bad one. On the other hand, his bad defense does the same thing the more he spends time at third.  And, with that aforementioned treatment in mind, are we sure that Andujar is most valuable to the Yankees as a third baseman or as a potential trade piece?

Obviously, anything can happen at any time and the Yankees could sign Manny Machado and deal Andujar at a moment’s notice, but I’m not holding my breath for that one. Hell, I’m not even waiting for it, and I’m barely bothering to hope for it.

One More Time

Despite what I said in the last bit, there’s still a part of me in disbelief that neither one of Machado or Bryce Harper isn’t a Yankee (or both!). I’ve seen people–mostly writers–make the argument that the Yankees don’t necessarily need either player because of how good they were last year, but that’s a half-truth.

Yes, the Yankees won 100 games, but it still wasn’t enough to win the division and avoid being embarrassed in the playoffs. Yes, they will win lots of games with the roster as currently constructed and could, conceivably, win the World Series with it. No, having the most talent doesn’t guarantee anything. But it helps.

The Yankees were good last year, and at times great. They have a solid young core with some good veterans mixed in. This is exactly the team and exactly the time to push over the edge in a big way. They’ve added to the team with good pieces so far, but adding great ones in Machado and/or Harper would go a long way towards helping win number 28.

It’s undeniable that the team has been improved. But it’s also undeniable that it hasn’t been improved as much as it could’ve been.

Thoughts four weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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(Presswire)

We are now four weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. Grapefruit League games are less than six weeks away. Hooray for that. Baseball is coming. Sooner than you think. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts on this Wednesday.

1. The Yankees are very talented and they’re going to win a lot of games in the coming years. I just can’t shake the feeling they are missing out on an opportunity to become THE TEAM this offseason. They’ve opted to spread the money around and acquire several good players rather than one or two great players. You can argue that is the smart way to go — the 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way — but I also feel the Yankees were uniquely positioned to capitalize on this free agent class. The homegrown core is excellent and cheap, and when you’re in the game’s biggest market, that’s when you use your financial might to acquire stars. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are both 26 years old. They’re younger than Aaron Judge! They fit into the young core nicely and make the Yankees much better. The Yankees were all set up for a blockbuster offseason. The core is cheap and the luxury tax rate has been reset. I’m not sure what more they needed to do. The Yankees have had a good offseason. James Paxton and DJ LeMahieu are strong additions and having J.A. Happ and Zach Britton for a full season will help. Assuming the Yankees do not sign Machado or Harper — both remain unsigned, so a signing is still possible — this winter feels like a giant missed opportunity. The Yankees might not ever be better set up to spend on transcendent talent than they were coming into this offseason, and it hasn’t happened. Shrug.

2. This has no real on-field value, but you know what? The Yankees signing Machado would be just tremendous for the rivalry with the Red Sox and a great thing for baseball overall. It’s been a long time since the Yankees and Red Sox were this good at the same time. You have to go back to what, 2007? The rivalry went stale for a while there. Now it has some meaning again. Adding Machado to it? Gosh, that would be fun. Baseball needs a villain and, like it or not, the Yankees are that villain. It’s just the way it is. They’re the best and most successful team in the sport’s history and everyone is sick of hearing about them. Remember when the baseball world seemed to embrace the lovable underdog 2017 Yankees? That was fun. It’s never happening again. Not anytime soon, anyway. The 2017 Yankees caught everyone off-guard and now they’re all right back to hating them again. Embrace it. Adding Machado not only makes the Yankees better on the field, but it adds some spark to the rivalry with the Red Sox, and it further gives baseball fans around the world that common enemy. If you’re reading this, chances are you love the Yankees. Pretty much everyone else hates them though. Hey, it’s good for business. Machado — and even Harper to some degree — would give everyone even more of a reason to hate the Yankees. Would be great for ratings and attendance and social media, and baseball overall.

3. I’ve seen lots of folks, both fans and people in media, say the Yankees need to watch their spending now because at some point they have to sign all their homegrown stars, namely Judge, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar. It’s true, the Yankees will have to pay those guys at some point. The idea they can’t spend now because they have to pay them later is silly though. First of all, who says they’ll be worth paying down the road? I love all those guys and I hope they do well. This is baseball though, and sometimes things don’t work out as expected. Secondly, if paying those guys is so important, why aren’t the Yankees signing them to extensions now? The earlier you sign them, the more you save. Seems like a smart idea. The Yankees have been extension adverse for several years now though. Third, guys like LeMahieu, Britton, Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jacoby Ellsbury will all be off the books before those young players start making serious money in a few years. A lot of payroll space will open up between now and then. And fourth, the Yankees can afford to pay those guys and others! I know this because once upon a time they had to pay Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Jorge Posada. They did that and still had money left over for Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, and others. Crazy, I know. The “don’t spend now because you might have to spend later” logic floating around is highly flawed. Highly flawed and also didn’t we do this already the last few years? Don’t spend money this offseason because Machado and Harper will be free agents in a few years? Yeah, that really worked out. Point is, don’t worry about having to pay the young guys yet. They Yankees have the financial wherewithal to make it happen. Let the Yankees win one title with this core before we worry how they’ll lock everyone up and win more championships together.

4. One last Machado/Harper thought, I promise. You know we’re going to spend the next few years (maybe even the rest of our lives!) second-guessing this offseason, right? I am certain I will take part in it, I can’t resist, but it is going to capital-S Suck. The Yankees probably won’t win the World Series in 2019. That’s because it is hard to win the World Series and only one team overcomes the longs odds to do it each year. Don’t get mad at me. That’s just reality. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, we’re never going to hear the end of “they should’ve signed Machado or Harper!” next winter, and however many winters there are between now and the next parade. I’ll probably take part in the second-guessing so I apologize in advance. (In my defense, I am first-guessing the hell out of it.) Heck, even if the Yankees do win the World Series this year, there will still probably be some complaints about not signing Machado or Harper because those two would give them better chances of repeating in 2020. The only good outcome here is the Yankees winning the World Series and Machado and Harper both having poor years. That is the only scenario in which there will be no second-guessing among fans and the media and whoever else. I know it’s coming and I dread it because it is inescapable. Some things can be easily ignored. This will not be one of them.

(Presswire)

5. The Yankees signed Didi Gregorius to a one-year contract worth $11.75M prior to the arbitration salary filing deadline last week. That is a touch below his $12.4M projected salary. A few weeks ago I said the most likely outcome was a one-year deal at the projected salary or thereabouts, and that’s exactly what happened. Go me. Anyway, the question now is what’s next? Brian Cashman says the Yankees want to sign Gregorius long-term. Does that mean they’ll try to hammer out an extension as quickly as possible? Or do the Yankees want to wait until Sir Didi returns from Tommy John surgery so they know exactly what they’re getting into? I wouldn’t blame them one bit for waiting. That said, working out an extension now might be their only way to get some sort of injury-related discount. It is possible to sign Gregorius now without changing his luxury tax number for the coming season. I explained it last year. As long as the extension doesn’t kick in until next year, Gregorius will still count as $11.75M against the luxury tax this year. There’s a way to build in short-term luxury tax relief. I’m more interested in the process behind signing Didi than the luxury tax terms. I’m sick of talking about the luxury tax. Will the Yankees sign him now or nah? That’s all I’m curious to know. Now that Gregorius has his $11.75M salary for the coming season locked in, I think he might be more willing to wait out his rehab and show he’s healthy before agreeing to a new deal. Even with free agency being what it is nowadays, he should do pretty well on the open market next winter. Now that he has more security, Didi can be patient. The Yankees probably missed their best chance to get him signed long-term to a below-market rate due to the injury.

6. The Kyler Murray situation is pretty fascinating. The short version: The A’s selected Murray ninth overall in last year’s draft and gave him a $4.66M signing bonus after he said he would play baseball full-time. Then he went back to Oklahoma this past fall, broke out as a football prospect and won the Heisman Trophy, and now he’s trying to leverage a potential NFL career into a larger MLB contract. Good for him. The Athletics and MLB sent people to talk to Murray this past weekend and apparently Oakland was given the okay to offer him a Major League contract, meaning he gets more money and goes on the 40-man roster. Teams can not give draftees Major League contracts anymore, and there are rules forbidding teams from promising draftees another contract down the road. In Murray’s case, MLB believes the A’s did not promise him anything following the draft last summer. He said he would play baseball, then he raised his football stock and the NFL became a legitimate option. Since MLB is allowing this, other draftees could try it I suppose, but how many MLB draft picks have a chance to go in the first round of the NFL draft like Murray? Pretty much none. Murray is a big time outlier. Hopefully this is a wake up call for MLB and they allow teams to increase their draft spending to ensure the best athletes play baseball. MLB shouldn’t lose talent to other sports. I’m sure MLB won’t change a damn thing because owners are doing everything they can to reduce spending, but hopefully something happens. Also, if I were Murray, I’d totally go to the NFL unless the A’s pony up a nice contract (the Scott Kingery extension maybe?). The final pick in the first round of last year’s NFL draft walked away with $9.47M. Murray has to repay the A’s part of the $4.66M bonus should he choose the NFL, but, as long as he’s drafted before the middle of the second round — most NFL mock drafts have him as a late first rounder right now — he’ll break even. Then, in three years, he can negotiate a new contract with his NFL team. From what I understand, even crummy quarterbacks get paid well after three years as long as they’re young. Hopefully Murray and the A’s can work out a deal and he can remain in baseball. Financially, the NFL makes much more sense in the short-term. That first big MLB payday is so far away between the minors and pre-arbitration years.

7. One of the best things the MLBPA can do between now and the next round of Collective Bargaining Agreement talks is get fans on their side. They have three seasons and two offseasons to do it and it will be close to impossible. Generally speaking, fans have no sympathy for the millionaire ballplayers who are making fewer millions than they did a couple of years ago. I totally get it. I also think there’s a chance for the MLBPA to get fans on their side in the coming years. Maybe I’m naive. I don’t think this would ever happen, but imagine a world where Clayton Kershaw rips the Dodgers publicly for cutting payroll. “We lost back-to-back World Series and we play in Los Angeles, why are we worried about the luxury tax?” Think that would energize fans? Now imagine Judge or CC Sabathia doing something similar. Or Kris Bryant. What if Felix Hernandez were to say the Mariners should be embarrassed for wasting his prime and starting another rebuild? Dallas Keuchel said he was disappointed the Astros didn’t get anyone at the 2017 trade deadline, and, last week, Jake Arrieta warned young players that they’re next in line to get screwed over by ownership. Maybe players speaking out against the front office and ownership isn’t as far-fetched as it seems. I sure do think it would help endear the players to fans. I think there’s a lot of frustration in baseball right now. The players are definitely angry their salaries are being cut. There are also a lot of fans upset their teams are not signing players or, in some cases, aren’t even trying to be competitive. More than one-third of the league is tanking or rebuilding or whatever you want to call it. Casual fans don’t care about rebuilds or five-year plans. They want a competitive baseball team. Instead, there are more meaningless games now than maybe ever before. Big name players calling out the front office and ownership for not doing more to field a competitive team — and calling out MLB for allowing it as well — could equal more fan support for the MLBPA going into the next round of CBA talks. Maybe that fan support means nothing and has no tangible impact. Or maybe it changes everything because MLB realizes winning back fans won’t be easy after years of at best ignoring and at worst endorsing teams not making an effort to be competitive. I’d like to think MLB will be held accountable at some point for turning a blind eye to owners turning their teams into get rich quick schemes with no regard for competitive integrity. The MLBPA is the only entity with the power to do that. Any support fans give them will be a plus, but the players will have to earn it.