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Thursday Notes: Franchise Values, Roki Sasaki, Mock Drafts, Broadcast Rights

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(Ezra Shaw/Getty)

The Yankees continue their nine-game, three-city West Coast trip with the series finale in Anaheim later tonight. Until then, here are some miscellaneous links and notes to check out.

Yankees again ranked MLB’s most valuable franchise

Once again, Forbes has ranked the Yankees as the most valuable franchise in baseball. The franchise is valued at $4.6 billion right now, up from $4 billion last year. The Dodgers are a distant second at $3.2 billion. The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 8. Here’s part of the write-up:

The New York Yankees are the most valuable team ($4.6 billion) and had local revenue of $712 million last year, the most in MLB and more than the bottom six teams (Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles) had combined. The Dodgers ($3.3 billion), Boston Red Sox ($3.2 billion), Chicago Cubs ($3.1 billion) and San Francisco Giants ($3 billion) round out the list of teams worth at least $3 billion.

Forbes estimates the Yankees’ revenue at $668M and operating income at $28M last year. If you believe the Yankees (or pretty much any team, for that matter) only made $28M in profit last year, I have a few bridges for sale in Brooklyn. Forbes has been compiling their estimated franchise values more than 20 years now, and the Yankees have topped the list every single year. If they ever slip into second place, someone’s doing something wrong.

Yankees among team scouting Roki Sasaki

According to Yahoo! Japan (via NPB on Reddit), the Yankees are among the many MLB teams scouting hard-throwing Japanese high schooler Roki Sasaki. Sasaki’s fastball was recently clocked at 101 mph, according to Dylan Hernandez, which broke Shohei Ohtani’s national high school record. Here’s some not great video of the kid in action. Sasaki reportedly throws a slider, curveball, and splitter. No word on the quality of his secondaries or his command.

Japanese high school players can sign with MLB teams as international free agents after they graduate, though it never happens because Nippon Pro Baseball would freak out. They want the best Japanese players to play in Japan before coming to MLB. MLB goes along with it to help maintain a good working relationship between the two leagues. Will Sasaki change that? Who knows. Is he even good? Who knows! Teams are already scouting him though. They’re starting to build the information bank.

Baseball America’s mock draft v1.0 and v2.0

Draft season is heating up and Baseball America (subs. req’d) posted their first and second mock drafts in recent weeks. For whatever reason they’ve decided to have one mock draft page that gets updated, not separate pages for each mock draft version. That’s … weird. Also kinda inconvenient.

Anyway, both mock drafts have the Orioles taking Oregon State C Adley Rutschman with the top selection. He’s such a stud. Switch-hitting catcher with a .420/.584/.821 batting line who projects to be an above-average defender. Baseball America had the Yankees taking New Jersey HS RHP Jack Leiter in their first mock draft and Florida HS 3B Rece Hinds in their second mock draft.

Imagining Hinds playing in Yankee Stadium in a few years is fun, and New York’s gamble on a previous large, righthanded-hitting power hitter with swing-and-miss concerns paid off nicely—RE: Aaron Judge.

Leiter is indeed Al’s son and he’s arguably the best prep pitcher in the country. Not huge velocity, but great secondaries and excellent command. The question is signability. Leiter is strongly committed to Vanderbilt and he and his family presumably do not need the money. The Yankees have a big bonus pool and can offer a huge overslot bonus, but it may not matter. Leiter may be an impossible sign.

I have no real opinion on Hinds at this point. He does fit the Yankees’ profile as a very athletic and very toolsy high schooler with unteachable power though. It’s a little too early to start matching teams and targets, especially late in the first round. Instead, I recommend sifting through MLB.com’s top 50 draft prospects list. Southern California kids are always a good place to start with the Yankees.

MLB wants to gain control of local broadcast rights

According to Ron Blum, Major League Baseball has put in a bid to purchase regional sports networks from Disney in an effort to gain control of local broadcasting rights. The Yankees have right of first refusal and already have a deal in place to buy back controlling interest in the YES Network. MLB is trying to purchase the remaining networks. From Blum:

“There’s tremendous revenue disparity in our game, and I think that if we had more of a national model closer to where the NFL is it would solve a lot of those competitive issues for us, kind of level the playing field.” baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred said Wednesday. “I think that all of the difficult issues for baseball, if you took that revenue disparity out of the picture, would be easier.”

Long story short, MLB wants to pool all the local television money together, then distribute it evenly among the 30 teams. That’s how the various national television contracts (FOX, ESPN, etc.) work and that is the long-term goal locally. Doesn’t seem all that close to happening, but MLB is working on it. The good news? Such a broadcast model would likely mean the end of local blackouts. That would be a huge plus for cord-cutters everyone.

Yankees’ bonus pools set for the 2019 draft and 2019-20 international signing period

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(MLB)

We’re well into April now and the weather is starting to heat up, which means we’re approaching draft season and the annual international signing period. I don’t anticipate much draft or international free agency coverage here given our looming shutdown (sorry), but here is this summer’s amateur bonus pool information, via Carlos Collazo and Ben Badler.

2019 Draft Pool: $7,455,300

Despite finishing with the third best record in baseball last year and thus picking near the end of the first round, the Yankees have the 20th largest draft bonus pool this summer after adding a pick in the Sonny Gray trade. Going from the 27th largest pool to the 20th largest pool with the trade ain’t too bad. Last year the Yankees had no extra picks and the sixth smallest pool at $6,115,100.

As always, the bonus pool money is spread across picks in the top ten rounds. Here is slot bonus value assigned to each of the Yankees’ picks this year:

30. $2,365,500 (first round)
38. $1,952,300 (Competitive Balance Round A — pick from Sonny Gray trade)
67. $976,700 (second round)
105. $554,300 (third round)
135. $414,000 (fourth round)
165. $309,500 (fifth round)
195. $241,000 (sixth round)
225. $190,100 (seventh round)
255. $160,800 (eighth round)
285. $148,900 (ninth round)
315. $142,000 (tenth round)

Teams can take money from one pick and spend it on another, and the Yankees (and pretty much every team) have done that aggressively the last few years. They take college seniors with no negotiating leverage in rounds 6-10, pay them small bonuses ($10,000 or so), and use the savings on other players. Fail to sign a player and you lose the slot money associated with the pick, however.

Penalties for exceeding the draft pool are pretty harsh. Exceed your pool by 5% or more and you have to give up next year’s first round pick, and the penalties only get worse from there. The Yankees have routinely exceeded their draft pool right up to that 5% threshold (last year they exceeded their pool by 4.8%) which incurs a 75% tax on the overage. Their “maximum” pool this year (bonus pool plus 4.9% overage) is $7,820,609.

The Diamondbacks have the largest pool this year at $16,093,700. That is more than $2M more than any other team. Arizona gained extra picks for losing Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, and also for failing to sign last year’s first rounder. The Red Sox have the smallest draft pool at $4,788,100.

2019-20 International Bonus Pool: $5,398,300

Unlike the draft pool, international bonus polls are based on market size. Teams get dropped into one of three buckets (small market, medium market, large market) and each bucket carries its own bonus pool size. The Yankees are of course in the large market bucket, so they get the smallest bonus pool. The international pool is a hard cap, though bonuses no larger than $10,000 do not count against the bonus pool.

Teams can trade for additional bonus pool space — they used to be able to add an additional 75% of their bonus pool, though this year it drops to 60% — and the Yankees have aggressively traded for international bonus pool space the last few years. They traded for the maximum and I expect them to do the same this year. The additional 60% means the Yankees can max their bonus pool out at $8,637,280 this signing period.

The 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd and the Yankees have already been connected to two high-profile prospects: Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez and Dominican OF Jhon Diaz. Dominguez is said to be a significant prospect, so much so that the Yankees are expected to give him a $5M bonus. That would be the largest international bonus they’ve ever given out, and also the largest bonus of the hard cap era overall.

Small market teams have a $6,841,200 pool this year. The Phillies, Dodgers, and Nationals have smaller pools than the Yankees because they forfeited bonus money to sign qualified free agents over the winter. Also, the Braves are limited to $10,000 bonuses the next two signings periods as part of the penalties for past international signing period violations.

So long, Sonny: Yankees trade Gray to Reds in three-team deal with Mariners

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(Elsa/Getty)

It took a little longer than I think everyone expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. Earlier today the Yankees sent Gray to the Reds in what is essentially a three-team trade with the Mariners. The deals have been announced, so it is official. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Reds get: Sonny Gray and lefty pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartin
  • Mariners get: Second base prospect Shed Long
  • Yankees get: Center field prospect Josh Stowers and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick

Officially, the Yankees traded Gray and Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, then flipped Long to the Mariners for Stowers. Based on the timestamps on the press releases, Long was officially a Yankee for nine minutes. The Yankees clear a 40-man roster spot with this deal, which means they won’t have to make an additional move when they announce the Adam Ottavino signing.

The Reds were reportedly unwilling to make the trade without signing Gray to a contract extension. The two sides have agreed to a three-year extension covering 2020-22. It is reportedly worth $30.5M. There is also a fourth year club option worth $12M, plus performance bonuses. Add in the one-year contract he already signed for 2019, and Gray’s new deal can max out at $50M across five years. Not bad.

Following the postseason Brian Cashman made it clear he was ready to trade Gray. His market took a little longer to develop than I expected, and the Yankees claimed they wanted to hold on to him following CC Sabathia’s heart procedure, but I never really bought it. It was a matter of “when” they’d trade Gray, not “if.” Cashman and the Yankees made it very clear they were ready to move on.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman in November. “Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know. You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.”

“Ultimately, you want to play somewhere where you’re wanted,” said Gray to Mike Organ recently. “… I don’t think it’s a secret to anyone, it’s kind of been an up-and-down experience for me. I’ve loved my time there. I love the guys. It was obviously a difficult season this past year, starting and then going to the bullpen, not pitching as much. But, I mean, I won eleven games last year.”

Gray, 29, came to the Yankees in a deadline deal with the Athletics in 2017. Things started out fine, but he struggled with his control late that season, then things really fell apart last year. All told Gray pitched to a 4.51 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 195.2 innings in pinstripes. That includes a 6.55 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 88 innings at Yankee Stadium and a 2.84 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 107.2 innings on the road. Sonny didn’t mix well with the Bronx for whatever reason.

The 22-year-old Sanmartin came over from the Rangers in a minor trade last offseason and he pitched to a 2.81 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 21.3% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 67.1 innings at four levels last year. I answered a mailbag question about him recently. Sanmartin’s a stats over scouting report prospect who will probably wind up in the bullpen. The Yankees are loaded with lower level arms and Sanmartin is an easy prospect to trade away.

Stowers, 21, was Seattle’s second round pick in last year’s draft. They gave him a $1.1M bonus as the 54th overall selection and he hit .260/.380/.410 (126 wRC+) with five homers and 20 steals in 58 short season league games after turning pro. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in the Mariners’ system before the trade. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report:

The biggest question in projecting Stowers’ future is whether he can stay in center field, because he needs to improve his reads and jumps … his plus speed is enough for the position if he makes the rest of the necessary improvements. Otherwise, a below-average arm would limit him to left field. Stowers’ bat will likely carry him. He has a plus hit tool, and his sharp batting eye is expected to help him at higher levels when pitchers are around the zone more. With average power, Stowers projects to be able to hit 15-20 home runs per year.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both ranked Long as the seventh best prospect in the Reds’ system before the trade. Based on the little I know about Long and Stowers, my preference would’ve been to hang on to Long, mostly because I prefer infielders to outfielders and upper level players to lower level players whenever possible. Stowers is just getting his career started and is a few years away. Long might play in MLB this coming season. Shrug.

The draft pick is a pretty big deal. Competitive Balance Round picks are the only draft picks that can be traded — this is the first time the Yankees have ever traded for a pick — and, right now, the draft pick is 36th overall. It could move a little in either direction as the remaining qualified free agents sign, though it’ll be in the mid-30s. The Yankees get the draft pick and the bonus pool money associated with the pick. Last year the 36th overall selection had a $1.97M slot value. An extra pick and all that extra bonus pool money equals more talent for the farm system this summer.

According to my quick math the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is down to $221M this coming season, which is below the $226M second luxury tax tier. Realistically, there’s no way they can get under the $206M threshold at this point. Staying under the $226M threshold and avoiding the surtax is definitely doable and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the goal. A Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing has felt unlikely for weeks and this trade doesn’t change that.

Aside from a surprise Machado or Harper signing, the only thing the Yankees really have left to do this winter is replace Gray with another swingman/spot starter type. I’d bet on that pitcher making much less than the $7.5M the Yankees were slated to pay Sonny this season. I’ve mentioned Francisco Liriano a few times as a personal favorite for that swingman role. Looking over the list of free agents, others like Jason Hammel and Drew Pomeranz could be swingman candidates. We’ll see.

Tuesday Links: MLB-Cuba Deal, Streaming Rights, Prospects

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Aroldis Chapman, Orlando Hernandez, and Cuban catcher Jorge Saez. (@YankeesPR)

The holidays have arrived and hot stove news has come to a crawl, so here are some miscellaneous — but not insignificant — links and bits of news to check out.

MLB announces agreement to bring Cuban players to MLB

Last week MLB and the MLBPA announced an agreement with the Cuban Baseball Federation that “will provide Cuban baseball players with a safe and legal path to sign with a Major League Club.” Here’s the press release. Many players, including Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, defected from Cuba by being smuggled off the island by criminals, and were later threatened and shaken down for money. This new agreement helps prevent that.

“Establishing a safe, legal process for entry to our system is the most important step we can take to ending the exploitation and endangerment of Cuban players who pursue careers in Major League Baseball,” said MLBPA chief Tony Clark in a statement. “The safety and well-being of these young men remains our primary concern.”

Under the MLB-CBF agreement, players who are at least 25 years old and have played six years in Cuba must be made available to MLB teams. CBF clubs can also choose to make younger players available. When a player signs with an MLB team, the MLB team must pay his former club in Cuba a release fee that follows the same formula as Japanese players (explained here). This is, truly, great and historic news for baseball. There is now a safe and proper channel for bringing Cuban talent to MLB.

MLB may transfer in-market streaming rights to teams

This is potentially huge. According to Josh Kosman, MLB “favors a plan” in which in-market streaming rights would be transferred from the league to individual teams. The Yankees and several other teams have been pushing hard for this for years. This means that, if you live in the Yankees’ home market, you would no longer have to be a cable subscriber to watch the YES Network. You could cut the cord and subscribe to the team’s streaming service instead.

The catch here is that when MLB transfers in-market streaming rights to teams — “when” is more appropriate than “if” here because this does feel inevitable, if not now then down the road — the teams will probably turn around and sell those streaming rights to the highest bidder (Amazon, Google, Netflix, etc.). Amazon is reportedly making a big push to secure regional sports streaming rights and I’m sure they’d love to get their hands on the Yankees. So, rather than buy an in-market streaming subscription straight from the Yankees or MLB, you’d have to sign up for Amazon’s video service. We’ll see. None of this has happened yet but things are heading in this direction.

Three Yankees make top GCL prospects list

I missed this a few weeks ago. Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrapped up their annual look at the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the rookie Gulf Coast League. Three Yankees made the list: OF Antonio Cabello (No. 7), OF Anthony Garcia (No. 12), and RHP Yoendrys Gomez (No. 14). Baseball America posted Cabello’s full scouting report on Twitter, so check that out. He ranked one spot ahead of Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez, the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, on the GCL list.

The 6-foot-5 and 204 lb. (and 18-year-old) Garcia led the GCL with ten homers in 53 games this year. He also struck out 40.6% of his plate appearances. The Baseball America scouting report gives him 70 power on the 20-80 scouting scale and, in the chat (subs. req’d), Ben Badler compared him to Domingo Santana. That’d be a nice outcome for a $500,000 international signee. Here’s part of the scouting report on Gomez:

Gomez ran his fastball up to 96 mph this season in the GCL, parking in the low-to-mid-90s. He throws with downhill angle and locates his fastball well to both sides of the plate for his age. Gomez had 10 strikeouts per nine innings in the GCL thanks in part to a tight, sharp curveball in the mid-to-upper 70s with good depth that flashes above-average to freeze hitters or gets them to chase. He showed feel for a mid-80s changeup that he’s willing to throw to both lefties and righties.

The Yankees signed the 18-year-old Gomez for a mere $50,000 two years ago and now he’s showing three pitches with good velocity and a potential swing-and-miss curveball. The Yankees seem to turn two or three of these small bonus kids into legitimate prospects each year. Domingo Acevedo ($7,500), Freicer Perez ($10,000) and Jonathan Loaisiga (not sure he even got a bonus) all fit in this group.

2019 Draft top prospects list released

With the college and high school seasons only a few weeks away, MLB.com released their first top 50 draft prospects list for 2019. Oregon State C Adley Rutschman is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft class and he’s probably the most locked in No. 1 pick this far out from the draft since Gerrit Cole in 2011. That doesn’t mean Rutschman is a lock to go first overall to the Orioles. It just means he’s the most clear cut No. 1 guy in quite some time.

The Yankees hold the 30th overall selection next year and they’ll keep that pick even if they sign a qualified free agent like Bryce Harper. Baseball America (subs. req’d) put together a super early 2019 mock draft recently and they have Rutschman going to the O’s with the top pick. Here’s who they have for the Yankees and that 30th overall selection:

3B Brett Baty (Lake Travis HS, Austin)
Why It Makes Sense: Baty will get talked about for both his prodigious strength in the lefthanded batter’s box and also the that he will be 19 and a half years old on draft day. This might not bother the Yankees as much as other teams, as New York just took high school catcher Anthony Seigler in the first round last year, who was also old for his class.

One, “Brett Baty” is an outstanding baseball name. And two, a 19-and-a-half-year-old high schooler in the first round? I can’t imagine that’s happened often. And geez, Seigler didn’t turn 19 until after the draft last year. He wasn’t that old for his class. Anyway, at this point in the draft season (i.e. it hasn’t started yet), any mock draft is almost certainly speculation more than hard “this team is on that guy” reporting. Lots can and will change between now and the draft.

As long as Damon Oppenheimer is the Yankees scouting director, the best place to start with potential draft targets is Southern California. He has an affinity for prospects who play where he grew up. One name to watch: California HS 1B/LHP Spencer Jones. Go check out the (free) MLB.com scouting report and tell me that kid doesn’t scream “future Yankees prospect.”

2019 Draft: Draft Order Tracker is now live

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(@MLB)

Just a heads up, our 2019 Draft Order Tracker page is now live. You can access it at any time through the Resources pulldown menu at the top of the site. The page will be updated throughout the offseason as draft picks are gained and lost through free agent compensation.

The draft order is the reverse order of the standings and the Yankees had the third best record in baseball this past season. But, because the Braves and Diamondbacks received compensation picks for failing to sign their 2018 first rounders, the Yankees pick 30th instead of 28th. Those two compensation picks pushed them back two slots. So it goes.

The new draft pick compensation rules are tied to team payroll, and because they stayed under the luxury tax threshold this year, the Yankees will surrender their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money each time they sign a qualified free agent this winter. They are locked into that 30th pick. First rounders are protected now.

MLB has not yet announced the 14 Competitive Balance Lottery picks. Those are 14 extra draft picks (eight after the first round and six after the second round) given to small market teams to make things fair, I guess. Those 14 picks should be announced soon. Also, those picks are tradeable! They are the only tradeable MLB draft picks. The Yankees have never traded for one of those picks.

2019 Draft: Yankees hold the 30th overall pick

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(Getty)

At 100-62, the Yankees finished the 2018 regular season with their best record since going 103-59 en route to the World Series championship in 2009. They also finished with the third best record in MLB behind the Red Sox (108-54) and Astros (103-59), and ahead of the Athletics (97-65).

As a result, the Yankees will hold the 30th overall pick in the 2019 amateur draft next June. They should have the 28th overall pick, but the Braves (9th overall) and Diamondbacks (26th overall) both have compensation picks for their unsigned 2018 first rounders. That pushes everyone back a bit. Sucks, but what can you do?

The Yankees have not picked this low (or high, depending how you view it) with their first selection since 2012, when they took Ty Hensley with the 30th overall pick. Hopefully the 2019 pick goes better than the 2012 one did. For what it’s worth, the 30th overall pick came with a $2,275,800 slot value last year. That’ll go up a bit next year, as always.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement changed the free agent compensation rules quite a bit. All first round picks are protected now. The Yankees can’t give up that 30th overall pick in next year’s draft no matter what. They’re locked into that pick. The free agent compensation rules are tied to revenue sharing and the luxury tax now. The rules:

  • Signing team receives revenue sharing money: Forfeits their third highest draft pick.
  • Signing team paid luxury tax during most recent season: Forfeits second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.
  • All other teams: Forfeit second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money.

Because the Yankees stayed under the $197M luxury tax threshold this year, they fall into the “all other teams” category. They’ll give up their second round pick and $500,000 in international bonus pool money during the 2019-20 signing period. They get to keep their fifth rounder and an extra $500,000 in bonus money by getting under the threshold should they sign a qualified free agent (i.e. Bryce Harper).

It’s still too early to know the quality of the 2019 draft class — for what it’s worth, Keith Law recently said he’s heard the “class is very down” and the “college crop is especially poor” — but, if you’re interested, here are the FanGraphs draft prospect rankings and MLB.com’s super early mock draft. Southern California kids are the best place to start when it comes to potential Yankees targets.