2019 Season Preview Archives - Page 2 of 5

A Full Year of a Healthier Zack Britton [2019 Season Preview]

March 21, 2019 by Mike

Going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected the Yankees to have to reinforce their bullpen at the trade deadline. There’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength though, plus Aroldis Chapman’s knee was aching and Tommy Kahnle had crashed hard, so the Yankees shipped three second tier pitching prospects to the Orioles to rent Zach Britton. It was the first Yanks-O’s trade since the Jaret Wright-Chris Britton deal. (They only trade with each other when Brittons are involved, apparently.)

Early control issues faded away and, by the end of the regular season, Britton looked a lot like the guy we saw in Baltimore all those years. The sinker was killing worms (77.8% grounders) and Britton even closed out some games when the knee sent Chapman to the disabled list for a few weeks. He quickly entered Aaron Boone’s Circle of Trust™ and the summer fling worked so well that it turned into a long-term relationship over the winter.

“We kept in contact immediately once free agency started,” Britton said during a conference call after re-signing with the Yankees. “The fact that I had been a closer and knew that I could do it at a high level, I felt I didn’t need to prove myself. I had some opportunities to close with other teams, but I didn’t feel like they were as close to winning as New York. I wanted to go back to a team that could win year in and year out.”

Being part of such a deep bullpen played a role in Britton’s decision — “They were one of the reasons I was trying to come back,” he said of his bullpen mates — and it didn’t hurt that Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were able to work out a creative (but increasingly popular) contract framework. The terms:

Two years and $26M guaranteed.
Two-year club option worth $27M.
If the Yankees decline the club option, Britton has a one-year player option at $13M.

Britton accepted a non-closing role, Zach became Zack, and the Yankees now have their best setup lefty reliever since … geez, I don’t even know. Mike Stanton? Boone Logan and Chasen Shreve had some moments, but yeah, it’s been a while since the Yankees had a non-closing lefty reliever with Britton’s ability and credentials. (Andrew Miller closed more than he set up with the Yankees). Let’s preview Britton’s first full season in pinstripes.

Is the old Britton ever coming back?

Zack Britton hasn’t been ZACK BRITTON in two years now. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2016 Britton again, that guy was historically great, but the last two seasons Britton had a 3.00 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 78 innings. That’s still really good, obviously, but it is a far cry from the 1.38 ERA (2.40 FIP) he posted from 2014-16. The $13M annual salary indicates the Yankees expect him to be something closer to 2014-16 Britton than 2017-18 Britton.

The primary difference between 2014-16 Britton and 2017-18 Britton was health. A forearm strain sent him to the disabled list twice in 2017, and last winter he blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout, and was unable to return to the mound until late-May. And, when he did return, he didn’t have a proper Spring Training and was rushed. The O’s wanted him back as soon as possible so they could showcase him for trades.

Forearm problems are a common precursor to elbow trouble, so that’s worrisome, though it’s worth noting Britton’s forearm and elbow have given him no problems since 2017. The Achilles injury was a fluky offseason thing. That doesn’t mean it didn’t have a lasting impact though. Britton required surgery, and a few weeks ago he admitted he never felt right on the mound last season. His legs weren’t underneath him and his mechanics weren’t right.

“The surgeon told me I was completely healthy last year, but I just didn’t have the lower-body strength that I’m accustomed to, which made me throw from a different delivery and change my arm slot,” Britton said to Randy Miller. “The results were fine at the end of the year, but I knew that wasn’t me. I was just kind of getting by because my stuff was moving and I was getting away with some stuff. But I wasn’t who I wanted to be. This offseason, I got most of my leg strength back. My calf strength has come back.”

Statistically and velocity-wise, Britton certainly got better as the season went on last year. It’s worth embedding this rolling average sinker velocity and ground ball rate graph again:

That said, when a guy comes back from a major injury (and surgery) and says “I wasn’t who I wanted to be,” you can’t brush it off because the results were okay. Britton didn’t feel like himself last season. We all worry about arm injuries with pitchers, but leg injuries are no joke. The lower half is crucial mechanically and you need strong legs to generate power. Everything in baseball (hitting, throwing, etc.) starts from the ground up.

Britton was able to have a normal and healthy offseason this past winter, something he hasn’t been able to do in two years now. He was pretty good last year with limited command and his sinker not moving the way it usually moves. When his legs underneath him and a proper Spring Training, yeah, there is reason to believe Britton can back to being the guy he was prior to 2017. Or at least be better than he was the last two seasons.

At age 31, chances are Britton’s best years are behind him. The Orioles enjoyed them. That doesn’t mean Britton can not be highly effective going forward, especially now that he’s healthy. Last year’s uptick in velocity sure looks like a guy getting back to normal as he gets further away from the injury, and it seems his command has been there this spring. He looks more like September 2018 Britton than August 2018 Britton. That is a positive.

Britton vs. The Infield Defense

Objectively, the Yankees’ infield defense kinda stinks. We know all about Miguel Andujar’s deficiencies at third base — he’s looked kinda better this spring? hard to tell in limited looks — and neither Luke Voit nor Greg Bird will be confused for Mark Teixeira over at first base anytime soon. Gleyber Torres has very good defensive tools but has been error prone early in his career. Troy Tulowitzki? Who knows. He’s looked surprisingly nimble at shortstop this spring. Let’s see how he looks a few weeks into the season as the wear and tear accumulates.

Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Even the injured and not quite himself version of Britton was generating ground ball rates north of 60% the last two years, and at his peak his ground ball rate was closer to 80%. The better the infield defense, the better you can expect Britton to be, because those ground balls are coming. The Yankees have three defensive options when Britton is on the mound.

Stay with the status quo. Leave whoever’s out there out there.
Go with a five-man infield. Aaron Boone has mentioned it this spring.
Go max defense with DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Wade replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki, respectively.

There doesn’t have to be one solution. There’s a time and a place for all three scenarios. Down a few runs? Then leave your best players in the game. Ground ball hitters coming up? The five-man infield wouldn’t be a bad idea. Unconventional? Sure, but not necessarily bad. Replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki with LeMahieu and Wade certainly makes sense when the Yankees have a lead and those two aren’t likely to get another at-bat.

Britton struck out 20.1% of the batters he faced last year, and if he can get back to being the 30% strikeout guy he was earlier in his career, it’ll mitigate some of the damage done by the porous infield defense. It’ll only help so much though. Britton relies heavily on his infield defense and there are likely to be times it’ll cost him given the team behind him, especially while Didi Gregorius is out. That’s just something the Yankees will have to live with. You take the good with the bad.

* * *

Dellin Betances will start the season on the injured list and my guess is Britton will be the primary eighth inning guy come Opening Day. Perhaps Aaron Boone will platoon Britton and Adam Ottavino — Britton faces the tough lefties in the seventh or eighth while Ottavino gets the tough righties — though the Yankees believe in defined bullpen roles. They had them with Joe Girardi and they had the with Boone last year. Britton is willing to pitch whenever and he showed last year he can pitch whenever. That buy-in shouldn’t be overlooked.

My preference would’ve been re-signing David Robertson over re-signing Britton, though what’s done is done, and it’s not like Britton is a slouch. Even when less than 100% physically last year, he was still pretty good. Now he’s not coming off forearm trouble and he’s not rehabbing from Achilles surgery. He’s healthy, he’s had a normal Spring Training, and he’s familiar with the team (coming over at midseason isn’t easy!). As long as the infield defense doesn’t completely betray him, Britton can still be a difference-maker out of the bullpen.

The Overqualified Sixth and Seventh Relievers [2019 Season Preview]

March 20, 2019 by Mike

On paper, the Yankees have a comically deep bullpen with three or four (or five?) relievers who would qualify as the best reliever on a not insignificant number of other teams. Things don’t always play out the way they look on paper, that’s just baseball, but the Yankees have clearly assembled an enviable collection of bullpen arms going in 2019.

New York’s bullpen is so stacked that Jonathan Holder is, at best, sixth on the reliever depth chart, and Tommy Kahnle isn’t even assured an Opening Day roster spot. I think it’s highly likely he’ll make the team, especially now that Dellin Betances is hurt, but the fact it is not completely set in stone is pretty bonkers. This guy was one of the top relievers in the game two years ago.

Assuming Kahnle makes the roster, he and Holder are behind Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Chad Green in the bullpen pecking order (once Betances returns). That makes them overqualified sixth and seventh relievers. Fortunately there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Let’s preview their 2019 seasons.

Jonathan Holder

In a bullpen loaded with big velocity, Holder is an outlier. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph last season and topped out at 95.4 mph. His max velocity was comfortably below Chapman’s (99.2 mph) and Betances’ (98.2 mph) average velocity. Holder is a kitchen sink guy who broke out last year after completely shelving his cutter and curveball, and leaning on his slider and changeup.

The end result was a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) with an average-ish number of strikeouts (22.0%) and few walks (7.0%) or grounders (29.3%) in 66 innings. Holder almost certainly has some home run rate regression coming his way this year. Last year’s ground ball rate won’t usually produce a 0.55 HR/9 (4.2% HR/FB) rate when you play your home games in Yankee Stadium. Something has to give. Either more grounders or more homers are coming.

Based on the current bullpen layout, it sure seems like Holder will inherit Adam Warren’s old role as the super utility reliever. The jack of all trades, Swiss Army knife reliever. He’ll be asked to keep the game close when the Yankees are trailing, throw multiple innings on occasion, and fill in as a high-leverage guy when others aren’t available. That was Warren’s role and he was very, very good at it. Now Holder is the obvious heir apparent.

Holder and Warren are similar in that both have starter’s repertoires and resilient arms, allowing them to remain effective on back-to-back days and deep into the season. Holder doesn’t have a starter’s stamina — the Yankees tried him as a starter in the minors in 2015 and gave up on it after one year because his stuff backed up so much — but he won’t need it in relief. If he can go two innings at a time, maaaaybe three on occasion, that’s enough.

Another possibility: Holder as an opener. He started a game last September, though that was a traditional bullpen game and not an opener situation. Holder is opening today’s Grapefruit League game after Green opened yesterday’s game, so this is something the Yankees are considering, and Holder is apparently a candidate to open games. This is likely a better use of his skills than being the sixth option in the late innings, you know?

The Yankees clearly like Holder — they added him to the 40-man roster a year early so he could throw 8.1 low-leverage innings in September 2016 — and the way he overhauled his approach in the middle of last season shows he has the aptitude to make adjustments, which is an obvious plus. In any other year, I feel like we’d be awfully excited about Holder’s upcoming season. In this bullpen, he kinda gets lost in the shuffle.

Unfortunately for Holder, he has a minor league option remaining (two, actually) and is pretty much the team’s only reliever who can easily be sent down. I reckon he’ll experience an undeserved trip to Triple-A Scranton at some point this season in the name of roster flexibility. It certainly would not be the first time that’s happened. Such is life for a cheap, optionable reliever in the era of bullpen shuttles.

Holder is a reliever without a clearly defined role at the moment, though those things tend to sort themselves out, and having a guy like him as you sixth best reliever is a big luxury. The home run regression might be ugly — that potential trip to Scranton might not be so undeserved after all! — but Holder has the tools and the pitching know-how to be successful big leaguer. He may be far down the depth chart now. Given the way these things usually play out, the Yankees will undoubtedly need Holder to get some important outs this season.

Tommy Kahnle

Last season was a total mess for Kahnle. His velocity was down early, he spent a few weeks on the disabled list, and when he returned he intentionally gained weight in an effort to rediscover some velocity. When it was all said and done, Kahnle threw 23.1 big league innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP) and 24.2 Triple-A innings with a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP). He walked 12.1% of all batters he faced. It was bad. Bad bad bad.

“I’m voiding last year. If I think about that I won’t be able to do anything now,” Kahnle said to Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) recently. He reported to camp in noticeably better shape — Kahnle told Adler he’s given up the two coffees and five Red Bulls he used to drink every single day, which is kinda bonkers — and based on our limited looks during televised Grapefruit League games, he appears to be throwing much more free and easy, and with more velocity.

“Really exciting. That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here,” Aaron Boone said to Brendan Kuty after one of Kahnle’s early spring outings. “… He didn’t have to work to generate the velocity. I thought life in the zone was really good. He executed some changeups. He threw a good slider in there last night. But the way the ball is coming out for him, I know he really feels good about it and he should. That was exciting to see.”

Two years ago Kahnle threw 62.2 innings with a 2.59 ERA (1.83 FIP) and outstanding strikeout (37.5%) and walk (6.6%) rates. He wasn’t pretty good, he was great. Maybe getting Kahnle back to that level isn’t a realistic goal. How many relievers can do that year after year? What about Holder level production though? ERA and FIP in the low-3s with a few more strikeouts. Is that unreasonable? Maybe it is given how bad he looked last year.

Clearly, velocity matters a lot to Kahnle. Hitters were noticeably more comfortable in the box and with their swings when he was 94-95 mph rather than 98-99 mph. Kahnle has been mostly 95-96 mph on the television radar gun this spring, which comes with the caveat that it is the television gun, but it is encouraging to see bigger numbers already. Pitchers usually don’t reach their max velocity until a few weeks into the regular season, once the weather warms up.

What will Kahnle’s role be this season? Geez, hard to tell right now. Even with Betances out, there are at least three guys ahead of him on the setup depth chart (Britton, Green Ottavino) and my guess is Holder would get high-leverage work ahead of Kahnle until Kahnle shows he’s back to his 2017 self (or thereabouts) and trustworthy in important situations. I think things will be touch and go with Kahnle for the first few weeks of the season. A defined role may be a ways off.

It’s worth noting Kahnle, unlike Holder, is out of minor league options. He has to pass through waivers to go to the minors and I don’t see him clearing. He’s cheap ($1.387M this year) and under control through 2021, and he is only one season removed from the last time he was very effective. In a vacuum, wouldn’t you want the Yankees to claim a guy like that? The Yankees would sooner trade him given the likelihood of losing him for nothing on waivers.

Kahnle has thrown the ball well this spring and that was a prerequisite for making the Opening Day roster. Being out of options helps his case but only goes so far. Kahnle had to perform at least a little bit, and it’s encouraging that his velocity is up a bit and that he doesn’t have to put everything he has into each pitch to get to that velocity. I don’t know what Kahnle’s role will be this year, but I do know he’s an x-factor. Getting something close to 2017 Kahnle would make the bullpen that much deeper and that much more dangerous.

Three questions about Chad Green [2019 Season Preview]

March 19, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Within the Yankees’ bullpen, there’s a clear hierarchy. Aroldis Chapman is the closer, Dellin Betances is the fireman or eighth inning reliever depending on the day, while the combo of Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino are hilariously miscast in late-to-middle inning relief. That’s a comedy of weapons.

Oh yeah, and then there’s Chad Green.

After a lesser but still great 2018 to follow up his dominant 2017, Green can get forgotten as the middle relief ace without the big contract or All-Star accolades. The right-hander took a bit of a downturn last year, as could be expected after his wildly successful previous season, and there are a few questions.

So after the customary projections, let’s look into three questions about Green for the 2019 season.

Projections

2018 production: 2.50 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 75 2/3 IP, 63 games, 11.18 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 1.8 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR
2019 ZiPS: 2.70 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 73 1/3 IP, 61 games, 11.17 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, 1.6 WAR
Steamer: 3.33 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 70 IP, 70 games, 11.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 1.1 WAR
PECOTA: 3.21 ERA, 3.55 DRA, 64 IP, 60 games, 11.1 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, 1.2 WARP

While Steamer and PECOTA predict a further downturn in his results, they still have him as a one WAR reliever, which is tremendous for your fifth-most important asset in the bullpen. They’re all bullish on his ability to keep up his strikeout numbers despite them heading in the wrong direction last year. His walk rate, which improved to an elite level in 2018, has a wide range in these projections.

Furthermore, none of them see him as much more than a one-inning reliever, which is a question for later in the post. But first, let’s try to nail down Green’s repertoire.

Is the fastball enough?

Green has one of the best fastballs in baseball. His 96.1 mph average is in the 92nd percentile and his spin 2444 rpm is 91st percentile, both according to Statcast. His 40.7 percent strikeout rate in 2017 was third in baseball behind Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Janson. It dropped significantly in 2018 but was still 92nd percentile at 31.5 percent. Meanwhile, he consistently threw it for strikes with a 5.0 percent overall walk rate.

Green significantly increased his usage of his fastball in 2018 and it didn’t exactly pay off. In a variation of Domenic’s graph in the 2018 Season Review, here’s a look at how his fastball varied from year to year (stats from Statcast).

	2017	2018
Total Fastballs	778	1083
Average Velocity	95.8 mph	96.1 mph
Average Spin Rate	2,484 rpm	2,444 rpm
Whiff Rate	39.8%	27.9%
Exit Velocity	89.8 mph	92.0 mph
BB Rate	7.4%	4.8%
AVG	.109	.210
ISO	.075	.126
wOBA	.168	.253

As you can see, outside of a slight increase in velocity and decrease in walk rate, his numbers declined across the board. It’s worth noting that A. Those were still tremendous numbers outside of the exit velocity and B. His 2017 was absurd, so expecting him to repeat it was foolish.

Still, as baseball adjusts to high velocity, will he be able to maintain his reliance on the fastball? To a certain extent, yes. The 27-year-old righty is in his physical prime and as long as the velocity and spin rate are comfortably above average, he’s still a valuable pitcher.

However, if he wants to remain elite or even duplicate his 2017 success, he needs to find a secondary offering that will keep hitters honest. The fastball-heavy approach doesn’t work in certain matchups, notably against Boston, though few teams had an approach that worked against the Sox’s offense. After a few rough regular-season outings, the Sox scored one run over 3 2/3 against him in October with seven baserunners and zero strikeouts.

Green’s exit velocity allowed was 89.3 mph in 2017 and jumped to 91.0 percent, both in the bottom two percentile of the league. His barrel % against rose to 10.6 percent. Batters are squaring up his pitches more and whether a change in location, pitch selection or both, he’ll need to find a new approach to reverse that trend.

What’s the deal with his secondary pitches?

OK, Green is great with mostly just one pitch, but what else does he have?

The right-hander saw his slider decrease in effectiveness as he cut back on its usage. The sample size was small (64 plate appearances and 237 pitches in 2017 with 30 PAs and 129 pitches in 2018), but he saw declines in whiff rate, batting average against and ISO against. It’s intriguing to see the Yankees let, or perhaps encourage, Green to go away from the slider when they tend to favor offspeed pitches.

	2017	2018
Percentage Sliders	20.9	10.2
Average Velocity	85.6 mph	87.1 mph
Average Spin Rate	2,165 rpm	2,269 rpm
Whiff Rate	29.7%	28.9%
Exit Velocity	87.2 mph	86.9 mph
wOBA	.214	.464
AVG	.194	.414
ISO	.080	.241

Again, it’s hard to read too much into this and it’s partially due to Green giving up two homers on sliders in 2018 compared to none in 2017. He was more homer-happy overall, allowing nine in 2018, five more than the previous season.

Green turned to his four-seamer to the point that he eschewed his seldom-used cutter, sinker and changeup as he became fully adapted to his bullpen role. Instead, he broke out a split-finger pitch with limited frequency as his third pitch, throwing it 40 times, according to Statcast. He only threw it once against righties, instead using it to get left-handed batters to swing and miss.

Brooks Baseball shows that he didn’t use the splitter at all last season until August 2018. That could mean that he implemented it in response to a poor July, though it probably came from more work than that.

Green got whiffs on the splitter nearly half the time, an impressive rate in a small sample. He’s continued to use it this spring, getting the following strikeout against the Orioles’ Steve Wilkerson (Gif via MLB.TV).

Gotta love that action diving down and away from the lefty.

Is the splitter going to be as good as his fastball? No, yet anything Green can come up with to balance out his trusty four-seamer would give him a chance to avoid the normal fungibility of relievers and stay on top of his game. Whether it’s the splitter, slider or something else, he’ll need a secondary pitch in the long term.

What is Green’s role now?

From this amateur perspective, Green is behind the Yankees’ top four in the bullpen due to contract, performance or whatever other reasons you can throw out. Based on his numbers the last two years, Green is equal to the high-leverage tasks that those pitchers will be thrown into, and he’s clearly a notch above Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle and whomever the eighth man is.

So how will Aaron Boone utilize Green? One option that separates Green is his ability to work as a multi-inning reliever. We’ve seen Betances, in particular, used in that spot at times, though mostly in the postseason. Green threw just 6 2/3 more innings in 2018 while appearing in 23 more games, seeing his multi-inning appearances go down but not fully dissipate.

Considering the Yankees’ depth, that could mean Green takes higher leverage, fireman spots earlier in the game. With two of Luis Cessa, Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga getting April starts, they’re going to need quality long relief from the get-go. Using Green for longer outings both shortens the game by getting the ball to the other ace relievers while preserving some of his fellow pen mates for other games.

In that way, the Yankees can operate with two entirely separate bullpens every other day, using Green and, let’s say, Britton to get to Chapman one day while Ottavino and Betances lock down the high leverage spots on others.

Last season, many of those high leverage outings in the fifth and sixth inning seemingly went to Jonathan Holder, who was up for the task. Will he be as reliable this year in what was essentially the Adam Warren role? If not, Green may need to take the less glamorous but still needed spots there rather than getting seventh and eighth inning spots.

Green could also be the Yankees’ most effective opener. He has recent starting experience and doesn’t have platoon splits (or may even have reverse ones based on his strikeout rates). If the team needs someone to take the top of the lineup before giving the ball to Cessa or whoever is the spot starter, Green is a good bet.

Giancarlo Stanton, Expectations, and the Second Year in Pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

March 18, 2019 by Bobby Montano

Expectations were sky-high in the Bronx for the newest Yankee superstar, the high-powered Giancarlo Stanton, in 2018. The Yanks had quickly developed a formidable core of young homegrown talent with Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge and stormed their way to Game 7 of the ALCS the year prior. Excitement was in the air – and then the Yanks traded Starlin Castro for Stanton, who had just hit 59 home runs en route to the NL MVP. The Yankees were back; the lovable group of underdogs that surprised the league in 2017 was no more.

Those expectations inevitably meant some letdown, and sure enough, Giancarlo was welcomed to the Bronx in a stereotypical Bronx way: showered with boos, raging WFAN callers and semi-regular trade speculation. It was a true superstar’s welcome to pinstripes, one with which former big-name acquisitions like Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira could empathize.

But with two notable exceptions (more on those shortly), Stanton did what Stanton does: hit the ball hard and far. His second year with New York figures to be a bit smoother for a number of reasons – personal adjustment, logistics, etc. are settled now – but let’s quickly dive into his 2018 before looking ahead.

A Disappointing Debut?

Giancarlo’s 2018 is considered disappointing by many fans and analysts, and it’s worth exploring that perception in a bit greater detail, as it will inform our expectations of what he can (and should) do going forward. Here’s his 2018 line compared to his career line:

2018: .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+), .360 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, .243 ISO and .333 BABIP
Career: .268/.358/.548 (142 wRC+), .381 wOBA, 11.5 BB%, 28.0 K%, .301 ISO and .298 BABIP

It’s worth noting that Stanton’s counting stats (38 homers and 100 RBI) and durability (158 games played) were exceptional. That accounted to 4.2 fWAR for the slugger, who was, despite the perception, one of the Yanks’ best players: only Aaron Judge (5.0), Aaron Hicks (4.9) and Didi Gregorius (4.6) were more productive offensively by fWAR. Crucially, all three missed significant time – meaning that Stanton was an indispensable force, and that without him, some of those August lineups would have looked mighty ugly.

His success was buoyed by the two-thirds of the season in which Stanton was a legitimate monster. Take a look at this:

May 1 to August 18^th: 301/.363/.581 (150 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 94 games
Everything else: .194/.292/.346 (75 wRC+) in 55 games

That top number is the type of production that wins MVPs – and it was long enough that it should serve as proof that Stanton can “handle New York.” But that’s not to say that Stanton wasn’t simultaneously disappointing despite these successes. Two brutal slumps early and late in the season that totaled the remaining third of the season ruined an otherwise outstanding year during the two most visible stretches of the season. That’s why his critics are so loud.

Taken in the aggregate, it’s clear that Stanton underperformed expectations. He got on base less than normal – he was merely above average when usually excellent – and his isolated power was significantly below his career norm, a result of hammering the ball into the ground. He struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (inevitably including some notable moments), which, although this was typical of him, managed to feel infuriating.

Fans must remember just how good Giancarlo is even with those caveats, though. Normal players don’t hit 40 home runs, drive in 100 runs, play every day but three and manage to be a true middle-of-the-order force on a 100-win juggernaut when they post a 75 wRC+ over a third of a season. That speaks to his natural talent and just how dominant he is as a player when things are clicking. He was worth 4 wins despite his two slumps – and a player for whom that’s the floor is a boon to every team.

Reducing His Grounders

The Yankees have championship aspirations, and to realize those dreams, they’ll need superstar production from Giancarlo across all of 2019. Or, at the very least, his slumps can’t be as severe or protracted in year two. That would go a long way toward his “rebound” and would likely rehabilitate him in the eyes of some of his sharpest critics. How can he accomplish that?

One of the more frustrating parts of Stanton’s 2018 was a sharp uptick in ground balls over his career average. 45% of balls Stanton hit last year were on the ground, far higher than his 42% norm and his highest since 2011 (though, to be fair, he did come close in 2017). His fly ball percentage dropped in concert, with only 36% of his balls hit in the air compared to his 39% career line.

That’s far too many balls on the ground for a player with Giancarlo’s power, let alone considering the fact that balls in the air at Yankee Stadium tend to fly out of the yard even for lesser talents. That means a lot of hard-hit balls gone to waste – and Stanton hit the ball extremely, extremely hard in 2018. Take a look at his batted ball rankings among the 96 other MLBers with 400 or more batted ball events (BBE) last year, per Statcast/Baseball Savant:

Barrels per plate appearance: 8.9% (5^th)
Barrels per BBE: 15.1% (3^rd)
Balls hit 95 mph or harder: 211 (9^th)
Percentage of BBE hit 95 mph or harder: 50.7% (5^th)
Average exit velocity: 93.7 mph (2nd, with the hardest hit individual BBE of any player in baseball at 121.7 mph)

Few players hit the ball harder. That’s right in line with who he is as a hitter, and we can all expect to see more of the same in 2019. Even in 2018, with more grounders and less fly balls, his line drive percentage stayed constant at 16%. It’s the uptick in grounders that will reduce his power and extra-base hits, not his actual ability to hit the ball hard.

The good news here is that his GB/FB rates were outliers last year, not a return to normal. That suggests that we can expect those numbers to increase – maybe pitchers attacked him differently, maybe he was pressing, maybe he made an ill-advised mechanical change, etc. – and stabilize around his career averages. That should mean more home runs and a higher batting average, as grounders are generally converted into outs – even if Stanton became an unlikely infield single threat. Improving on this figure would likely significantly help Giancarlo find more consistency next year.

A Potential Path to Replicating 2017

There were two other categories in which Giancarlo struggled last year compared to 2017: he struck out more and walked less. The big difference here compared to the above is that 2018 marked a return to normal. It was 2017 that was the outlier.

It’s important to say this: Stanton strikes out a lot. He always has and he always will. He struck out 23% of the time in 2017 in what was the lowest mark of his career by a considerable margin. He made a much-publicized mid-season change to his stance at the plate, the idea of which was to cut down on strikeouts and increase his power. It worked in the short-term but 2018 saw his strikeout rate return to normal, as he fanned 29% of the time (his career average is 28%).

On its own, that would be fine. Stanton was worth 5.0 fWAR in 2012 and 6.8 fWAR in 2014 when he struck out 28 and 26 percent of the time, respectively. But it’s more of a concern when coupled with a declining walk rate, and that’s exactly what happened in 2018: his 9.9% walk rate was much lower than the 12% he posted in 2017 and was his lowest since that 2012 season.

That suggests that Stanton was chasing more pitches out of the zone last year, and the numbers bear that out, but again in a return to career norms rather than an outlier. His 2018 chase rate was just under 31%, which is right in line with his career average of 30.6% – it was 2017 (27.9%) that was the true outlier. Perhaps 2017 isn’t repeatable (it turns out that hitting 59 homers isn’t so easy!) but it’s worth noting that Stanton did swing more overall last year than normal. He swung at 45% of pitches in 2018. That’s in line with his career data but a raw figure he has only exceeded three times in nine seasons.

Hopefully, a year with the Yankees coaching and a season’s experience facing American League pitching means that he will have better recognition in 2019 – for what it’s worth, he’s flatly not interested in discussing his stance – and unleash the Stanton the National League saw in 2017. It would be great to see his walk rate return to normal, and I think there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that this figure will rebound because Stanton generally walks more than he did last year.

The strikeout rate is more likely to remain high moving forward because that’s just who he is as a hitter – but it’s worth remembering that he has found considerable success at the plate as a big leaguer regardless.

What to Expect

There will likely be little change in the way Giancarlo is used in 2019. He’ll remain a primary DH who gets some time in the outfield (although I’d be curious to hear why the Yanks seem to think he can’t play the outfield regularly given that he has spent his career as an outfielder in the National League). He’ll hit in the middle of the order and he’ll hit dozens of home runs and hundreds of balls really hard. That’s just who he is and who he’ll always be. Here are the projections, for whatever they’re worth:

ZiPS: .255/.344/.557 (138 wRC+)
Steamer: .267/.354/.569 (145 wRC+)
PECOTA: .258/.354/.512 (134 DRC+)

Each of those has Stanton outperforming his 2018 debut in the Bronx, and I think that’s a fair assessment. Stanton was very, very good in his first season as a Yankee – and that was with two career outliers in his GB% and reduced BB%. A reset to normal there alone should improve his production, and that’s without considering the external factors that could lead to a more comfortable approach, like being settled in on the team and in New York, familiarity with pitchers, etc.

The Yankees will be an excellent team this year, and Giancarlo Stanton is going to play a major role in that success. Even though he was very good in 2018, Giancarlo seems a safe bet to return to “form” and remind fans why it was that he was the National League MVP just two years ago.

The Scranton shuttle and other relief depth [2019 Season Preview]

March 15, 2019 by Derek Albin

It’s pretty easy to predict how the Yankees are going to staff their bullpen this season. There are six players guaranteed a roster spot, barring injury. The team is planning to carry a 13 man pitching staff this year, meaning that there are two open spots assuming a five man starting rotation. Tommy Kahnle probably snags one of the two jobs considering he’s out of options. The last opening probably will be interchangeable throughout the season, though having a long reliever could be the outcome.

There are no shortage of relievers who could ride the Scranton shuttle this season, rotating as the 13th pitcher as needed. Some of them are already on the 40-man, while others are non-roster invitees. It would be easy to write off any of the foregoing players as significant contributors, but let’s not forget that what Jonathan Holder did last year. He went from being the main back-and-forth guy to a major league bullpen staple.

40-man shuttlers

Stephen Tarpley

There usually isn’t too much to say about a September call-up who’s a reliever. Yet, Tarpley has become a pretty fascinating pitcher to follow. The Yankees probably envision him as Zack Britton-lite, and there’s good reason why. Prior to Britton joining the Yankees, Tarpley spent some time shadowing him prior to the 2017 season. Who knows if that story would have been uncovered had Britton not been traded to New York.

Tarpley saw his groundball rate jump dramatically in 2017, almost certainly due to Britton’s influence. Combine that with the high strikeout rates in the high minors and you have an interesting relief prospect. Tarpley was pretty good in his 10 inning cameo last September and even made the playoff roster. He’ll probably get the bulk of the major league time that anyone else on the Scranton shuttle gets this summer.

Ben Heller

Tommy John surgery cost Heller all of 2018 and will curtail part of his 2019 as well. After going under the knife last April, he’s six weeks away rehab game action. That doesn’t mean he’s close to the big leagues, though. In all likelihood, he’s probably not an option until mid-season.

The Yankees acquired Heller as part of the Andrew Miller trade a few years ago. He’s already seen small parts of two major league seasons with the Yankees, totaling 18 innings. Best known for his mid-to-high 90s fastball, it’ll be interesting to see how his velocity returns this summer. Even though he’s already had a good deal of success in Triple-A, he’s probably going to spend a lot of time there this year.

Joe Harvey

Harvey was a somewhat surprising 40-man roster addition a few months ago. One of the reasons I profiled him in February was because I didn’t know anything about him. He’s still a bit of a mystery, though the Yankees clearly like him enough to save him a seat on the 40-man.

A little bit has been made about the spin rate on his fastball. It’s very good, and spin rate has become all the rage in baseball these days. Just look at what the Astros have done with their pitchers. Anyway, Harvey doesn’t appear to have much else other than a good fastball. Yet, if he puts up numbers like he did in the minors last year (sub 2 ERA), he’ll get his shot this summer.

Non-roster possibilities with big league experience

Danny Farquhar

As Mike wrote last month, it’s pretty easy to pull for Farquhar to carve out a role with the big club. It’s a distinct possibility that he could return to the majors after his near-death experience in the White Sox dugout last summer. As a non-roster invitee who’s already been sent to minor league camp, he’s still on the outside looking in. It’s not hard to see why the Yankees like him: he strikes out plenty of hitters and has had good seasons with Seattle and Tampa Bay. Plus, the Yankees have had him in the organization before, back in 2012. There’s still a lot for Farquhar to overcome, but if he resembles something of his old self he could be in pinstripes this year.

Rex Brothers

Brothers is representative of the adage that lefties never run out of opportunities. The southpaw was pretty impressive for the Rockies early in his career with his high velocity fastball. Eventually, Colorado cut bait when his control evaded him. After not making the Cubs in 2016, he sat out the entire season. Beginning in 2017, he worked his way back to the big leagues with Atlanta. His walk problems never went away though, and he walked more than a batter per inning in the minors last year. Still, his velocity from the left side is tantalizing. He averaged over 96 MPH on his heater in limited time with Atlanta last season. He can’t be totally ignored as an option for the Yankees since he is in camp, but it would probably take a ton of injuries or an unlikely resurgence.

Daniel Coulombe

Stylistically, Coulombe is the opposite of Brothers. Instead of a high-octane fastball, Coulombe is a lefty who relies on his slider and curveball two-thirds of the time. He’s been in the majors every year since 2014, split between the Dodgers and A’s, with middling results. It’s hard to see him as much more than emergency depth even though he’s hung around the highest level for a while now. Maybe another team will want to give him a big league chance before the month is over, but if not, he’ll hang around in Scranton most of the year. Maybe he could be plucked for September call-ups if the Yankees want a matchup lefty.

Prospects invited to big league spring training

Trevor Stephan

Even though Stephan has been a starter in the minors, it sounds like 2017’s 3rd-rounder could be best deployed out of the bullpen. He works exclusively out of the stretch, doesn’t really have a third pitch just yet, and has a little bit of an odd delivery. Stephan’s a pretty big guy, standing at six-foot-four, but his fastball extension is even more impressive. He’s got a seven foot reach which certainly makes his fastball tougher to hit. He’ll be in the minors to start the year, but he should be knocking on the door by year end.

Brady Lail

25-year-olds aren’t always prospects, but Lail became mildly interesting after moving to the bullpen last summer. From getting drafted in 2012 through his climb to Triple-A, the righty was a starter. Last year, he became a full-time reliever and started picking up more strikeouts. He wasn’t a one-and-done type of guy though; he pitched multiple innings quite a bit out of the pen. His ERA was too high, sitting over 5, but as a multi-inning option he could become an alternative to someone like Luis Cessa this season. Lail’s already been assigned to minor league camp, but he could be around later this year.

Raynel Espinal and Phillip Diehl

I’m grouping these two together because Domenic called them out as guys who could help the Yankees this year. Espinal, 27, has been in the organization since 2013 and finally made Triple-A last year. He’s yet another hard-thrower with impressive strikeout rates. Diehl, 24, is a lefty without much of a platoon split thus far in his minor league career. He’s had a great spring (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 10 K) and Aaron Boone has mentioned him by name when asked who’s impressed in camp. Both are probably heading to Scranton to start the year, but either could become part of the shuttle in a few months.

Cale Coshow

At six-foot-five and 270 pounds, Coshow has a presence on the mound. He flip-flopped between starting and relieving from 2013 through 2016 until becoming a reliever full-time in 2017. You’ve heard this story before: he started to miss a lot more bats in the bullpen. He’s likely low on the promotion pecking order, but the fact that he was in big league camp means the Yankees like him to some degree.

The New Super Utility Infielder [2019 Season Preview]

March 14, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees signed a free agent infielder to a multi-year contract this past offseason. It was not the free agent infielder most expected or hoped, however. Rather than spend big on Manny Machado, the Yankees instead scooped up longtime Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu. He received a two-year contract worth $24M total.

“He’s always shown the ability to play all four infield positions,” said special assistant Jim Hendry, who drafted LeMahieu when he was with the Cubs, to Dan Martin a few weeks ago. “And we have a lot of guys that can hit the ball out of the ballpark, but that comes with strikeouts. He’s gonna make contact and be a winning player for us.”

LeMahieu turns 31 in July and he’s coming off a .276/.321/.428 (86 wRC+) batting line last season with his third Gold Glove in the last five years. The Gold Gloves are deserved too. His +18 DRS was second to Kolten Wong (+19 DRS) at second base last year, and, over the last five years, his +48 DRS is second only to Ian Kinsler (+67 DRS).

The Yankees are not getting 2018 LeMahieu or 2014-18 LeMahieu, however. They’re getting 2019 LeMahieu and, barring a trade or release, 2020 LeMahieu as well. Taking a relatively light hitting infielder out of Coors Field is a risky move, but the Yankees are all-in. Let’s preview LeMahieu’s season.

How much offense should we expect?

We know five things about LeMahieu as a hitter. One, he’s a ground ball guy (career 53.8%). Two, he’s more likely to go the other way to right field than pull the ball to left (35.0% to 25.0%). Three, he’s been more effective at Coors Field than everywhere else (96 wRC+ vs. 84 wRC+). Four, his contact rate on pitches in the zone is elite (92.6%). And five, he’s a sneaky good exit velocity guy.

Like every other Rockies hitter, LeMahieu has benefited from playing in Coors Field. He’s just benefited in a different way than, say, Nolan Arenado or Brad Hawpe or Vinny Castilla. LeMahieu’s not a home run guy. He sprays the ball around and took advantage of that huge Coors Field outfield, the second most spacious in baseball. There’s a reason LeMahieu has a career .374 BABIP at Coors Field and a career .310 BABIP everywhere else.

The issue with Coors Field is not necessarily Coors Field itself. It’s what happens when hitters leave Coors Field and go out on the road. There’s evidence of a Coors Field hangover effect, meaning Rockies players are unfairly dinged when they leave altitude. Remember when Adam Ottavino said he’s looking forward to leaving Coors Field and gaining consistent break on his pitches? That works the other way too. LeMahieu will see consistent break now.

Although he’s a right-handed hitter with a tendency to hit the ball to right field, LeMahieu’s not a great candidate to take advantage of the short porch because he hits so many balls on the ground. His walk rate has more or less been average over the years despite a very low chase rate (26.1% since 2015) because he puts the ball in play easily. It’s good LeMahieu knows a ball from a strike. It’s just that well-above-average chase rate only equals an average number of walks.

Only some power and only some walks means LeMahieu’s offensive value is tied tightly to his batting average, which is risky. Risky probably isn’t the right word. Susceptible to big year-to-year swings is more like it. Three years ago LeMahieu hit .348. Last year he hit .276. Sure, his true talent level changed some across three years because he aged, but 72 points of batting average? Walks and power help stabilize things and LeMahieu doesn’t really offer them.

As for his contact rate, that’s nice, though the idea he solves any strikeout concerns is a real stretch. For starters, the Yankees don’t strike out as much as everyone seems to think. Their team 22.7% strikeout rate was almost exactly league average (22.3%) last year. (The difference was roughly 25 strikeouts across the 162-game season.) Having one or two strikeout prone hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t make the entire team strikeout prone. Whatever. This narrative isn’t going away.

Anyway, LeMahieu makes a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out much, but even if you believe strikeouts are this team’s fatal flaw, LeMahieu is only one player, and no one player can fix any team’s flaw. Also, if LeMahieu is suddenly a true talent .270-ish hitter with not much power, how much is that extra contact really helping? Point is, LeMahieu not striking out much is welcome, but the idea that he’s exactly what the Yankees need because they strikeout a lot is … woof. No.

My hope is LeMahieu can be a league average hitter now that he’s free from the Coors Field hangover. League average for a hitter with this profile in Yankee Stadium means something like .280/.330/.400. Nothing exciting about it, and it would assuredly make LeMahieu no better than the seventh or eighth best hitter on the team, but that’s okay. They can’t all be middle of the order thumpers. League average is a modest and reasonable goal.

A super utility infielder

“I was told to bring a lot of gloves,” LeMahieu quipped during his introductory conference call. The Yankees intend to use LeMahieu has a super utility infielder, meaning someone who plays regularly but at different positions. Second base one day, third base the next, first base the day after that, so on and so forth. It’s a great idea, especially with Troy Tulowitzki needing regular rest, though it’s not as easy as it sounds. We’ve seen other players struggle with it.

LeMahieu is a career second baseman, so it’s no surprise he’s spent more time at third base (25 innings) than second (22 innings) this spring. He knows second base. Third base is the one he has to learn. And, coincidentally enough, LeMahieu is playing first base for the first time in today’s Grapefruit League game. He played a little first and third in the past. The Yankees want to make it a weekly thing and LeMahieu’s on board. He knew what he was getting into.

“This is really how I came up to the Majors,” LeMahieu said to Kristie Ackert earlier this week. “I played different positions, and then second base opened up so I kind of stuck there. When this opportunity to come to the Yankees opened up for me, it was what I wanted … Because it’s the Yankees.”

Granted, we haven’t seen him much at third base this spring, but LeMahieu has looked fine there in his limited looks. He has the hands and arm for it. I’m not worried about him catching and throwing the ball. The adjustment will come on those quick reactions — there’s a reason it’s called the hot corner! — and plays when the ball isn’t hit to him. Where does he go on cutoff plays, things like that. That’s usually where the lack of experience shows up.

I expect LeMahieu to be perfectly fine at first and third bases. His inexperience will show up at times and that’s to be expected. Otherwise I think he’ll handle both positions well. The question is how much will he play? Aaron Boone says the Yankees plan to play LeMahieu pretty much every day, but these super utility things are always better as an idea than in reality. My guess is this will be more of a play it by ear situation initially.

“(LeMahieu) allows us to really have a ten, eleven-man rotation for nine spots,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty last month. “It keeps everyone, we believe, playing regularly, but also able to keep guys fresh, hopefully more healthy over the long haul and a guy or two on the bench every night that’s a really good player.”

* * *

The LeMahieu signing is the kinda move hardcore statheads call savvy because he has untapped potential (woo exit velocity!) but leaves most others shrugging their shoulders. Especially when the Yankees passed on Machado to sign LeMahieu. Of course it’s not that simple — they’re not in the same stratosphere contract-wise — but that’s how many fans will see it, that the Yankees passed on Machado to sign LeMahieu.

For all intents and purposes, the Yankees signed LeMahieu to be Tulowitzki insurance, and to be a better version of Neil Walker. LeMahieu’s a much better defender than Walker — or at least he is at second base (first and third bases remain to be seen) — and he theoretically offers more offensive upside because he makes more contact and has shown better exit velocity. I feel like there are only two possible outcomes here: LeMahieu is unexpectedly great and looks like a steal, or he’s terrible and everyone hates him. No middle ground.

The Return of J.A. Happ [2019 Season Preview]

March 13, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees had a chance to be bold this offseason. They could’ve splurged for Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, or even Patrick Corbin, but instead opted to spread the money around on several good players rather than one or two great players. Calling it an offseason of half-measures is probably unfair. Clearly though, the Yankees could have done some bigger things and passed.

Among the offseason pickups was veteran southpaw J.A Happ, who pitched so well for the Yankees following last year’s trade (2.69 ERA in eleven starts) and has had a renaissance in his early-to-mid-30s. Rather than sign Corbin to a deal that would’ve carried him through his age 35 season, the Yankees gave Happ a little two-year contract (with a vesting option) that covers his age 36-37 seasons.

At a time when so many teams are shunning free agents and older players, the Yankees gave the winter’s third largest average annual value ($17M per year) for a free agent starting pitcher to the fourth oldest starter on a 40-man roster at the start of Spring Training. Corbin and Hyun-Jin Ryu received a higher average annual value. Only Rich Hill, CC Sabathia, and Adam Wainwright are older.

“He was a performer. He took the ball every five days. He was a competitor. He came as advertised,” Brian Cashman said to Coley Harvey following Happ’s re-signing. “A real pro. Had a veteran presence within that clubhouse. Knew exactly what was necessary and brought it every five days in the most competitive division in all of baseball and the world.”

Aside from his ALDS start, Happ’s brief tenure with the Yankees went very well, and it shouldn’t be ignored that he joined the team in the middle of a postseason race and thrived. That’s not easy, especially not in New York. Happ is a pro’s pro. Low maintenance and effective. Every team wants a guy like him in the middle of their rotation. Let’s preview his upcoming 2019 season.

Is an adjustment coming?

The Yankees are an anti-fastball team but Happ is not an anti-fastball pitcher. In fact, he’s one of the most extreme fastball pitchers in baseball. Last season he threw the fifth highest rate of fastballs in baseball:

Lance Lynn: 88.9%
James Paxton: 81.5%
David Price: 74.9%
Jon Lester: 74.8%
J.A. Happ: 73.3% (72.0% with the Yankees)

Happ ratcheted up his fastball usage during his brief stint with the Pirates a few years ago, which led to his early-to-mid-30s renaissance. He hasn’t lost velocity with age either. Look at his average four-seam fastball velocity numbers the last four years:

2015: 92.8 mph (96.4 mph max)
2016: 92.8 mph (96.4 mph max)
2017: 92.9 mph (96.4 mph max)
2018: 92.7 mph (96.2 mph max)

Geez, hard to get more consistent than that. The velocity has held steady. Happ’s fastball spin rate dipped noticeably last year …

… which worries me a bit. Three of Happ’s four worst months in average fastball spin rate from 2015-18 came last year, and August 2018 was 6 rpm short of making four of the five lowest. Happ likes to pitch up in the zone with his fastball because it’s a great swing and miss pitch. High spin helps the fastball play up.

“I was encouraged, feeling (my fastball) had a little more life,” Happ said to Pete Caldera following his most recent Grapefruit League start. Aaron Boone added: “(I) thought it was the first time he had his Happ fastball. I thought it was a really good day for him.”

Aroldis Chapman’s velocity dipped last season and, to compensate, he started throwing a lot more sliders. The thing is, Chapman came out of the gate throwing more sliders. More sliders was the plan going into the season. He and the Yankees didn’t wait around until they were sure his velocity dipped to make the adjustment. They were proactive.

The Yankees are big believers in spin rate, so they surely noticed Happ’s fastball spin rate dip last year. Because of that, I wonder if we’ll see a slightly different Happ on the mound this year. Maybe more sliders or changeups, or perhaps he’ll bring back the cutter he shelved a few years ago. A proactive adjustment like Chapman’s slider.

For what it’s worth, Happ threw a lot of changeups in his Grapefruit League start last week. That could’ve been one of those “veteran working on a pitch that’s given him trouble this spring” things. Probably was. But maybe it was part of an adjustment? More changeups to help the fastball play up makes sense, no? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

What do we expect in 2019?

I say this with all due respect: J.A. Happ is boring. He’s a very good Major League pitcher. He’s also relatively uninteresting from a analytic standpoint. He likes to use his high spin fastball up in the zone and … that’s it? In three of the last four seasons he’s finished with an ERA in the 3.50 to 3.65 range. In three of the last four seasons he’s finished with a FIP in the 3.75 to 3.95 range. Consistency is boring.

Happ will play the entire 2019 regular season at age 36 and, for any player at that age, age-related decline is a major concern. Things can fall apart quickly. Happ has defied the typical aging curve — that is especially true with his fastball velocity (it should’ve dipped years ago) — with is encouraging, but it doesn’t mean he will continue to defy it forever. Father Time remains undefeated.

While I admit to being concerned about the drop in fastball spin and the potential ramifications, Happ has earned the benefit of the doubt. He’s been consistently above-average on a rate basis the last four years and he’s averaged just short of six innings per start the last four years. Year after year, season after season, it’s been the same J.A. Happ. That’s not a bad thing at all.

Luis Severino’s injury has created some rotation issues, but, more than anything, the Yankees need Happ to provide competency. They didn’t get it from Sonny Gray or Domingo German last year. Happ came in and stabilized things. If he pitches like an ace, great. That’d be a neat little bonus. With their offense and their bullpen, the Yankees only need Happ to be solid and chew up innings. He remains capable of doing that.

* * *

I was hoping the Yankees would spend big for Corbin, a high strikeout and high ground ball southpaw in the prime of his career. Once they determined his asking price was out of their range (another issue for another time), Happ was the next best thing. I had him as the second best free agent starter this winter. The Yankees avoided a guaranteed third year, which is always a plus for a pitcher this age, and they got to know him a bit firsthand last year following the trade. He’s not Corbin, but Happ was a solid re-signing and will be integral to the 2019 Yankees.