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Adam Ottavino’s suddenly extreme stolen base problem

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(Presswire)

Two weeks ago the Yankees made their latest (final?) free agent splash when they signed righty reliever Adam Ottavino to a three-year contract. Ottavino is fascinating from a stathead perspective because he’s into analytics and used them to get better last offseason. He’s also a native New Yorker like Dellin Betances, which is pretty cool. Only six players from the five boroughs appeared in a game last year.

Ottavino and Betances have something in common besides their hometown: They’re prone to stolen bases. Dellin’s stolen base issues really came to a head in 2016, when runners went 21-for-21 against him, but, to his credit, he has gotten better at combating the stolen base. Look:

  • 2016: 21-for-21 (stolen base attempted in 17.9% of opportunities)
  • 2017-18: 21-for-26 (stolen base attempted in 13.9% of opportunities)

Betances is still way worse than the league average — runners attempted to steal in 5.2% of their opportunities in 2018 — but there has been some improvement and that’s not nothing. Dellin shortened up his leg kick to be quicker to the plate and we’ve even seen him make pickoff throws to first base. Not great pickoff throws, but pickoff throws nonetheless. It’s the thought that counts.

Ottavino’s stolen base issues last year were about as bad as Betances’ were in 2016. Runners went 24-for-27 (89% success rate) against him and they attempted a steal once every four opportunities. That was the highest attempt rate in baseball and it wasn’t close either. Here are the highest attempt rates (min. 15 attempts):

  1. Adam Ottavino: 27 attempts in 108 opportunities (25.0%)
  2. Sam Dyson: 19 attempts in 101 opportunities (18.8%)
  3. Tyler Glasnow: 27 attempts in 146 opportunities (18.5%)
  4. Dellin Betances: 15 attempts in 95 opportunities (15.7%)
  5. Noah Syndergaard: 35 attempts in 226 opportunities (15.5%)

One of the three runners who was caught stealing with Ottavino on the mound was Matt Wieters, a slow-footed catcher. Another was Paul DeJong on this play. DeJong beat the throw and was safe, but he overslid the bag and was called following replay. The only “legitimate” caught stealing with Ottavino on the mound last year was this play, when Freddy Galvis got a terrible jump:

Runners attempted a stolen base against Ottavino roughly five times more often than the league average last year. I went back five years and didn’t find another pitcher with a stolen base attempt rate that high. In 2017 runners attempted a stolen base against Ottavino in 12.9% of their opportunities. It was 3.4% in 2014, his last full season before Tommy John surgery limited him to 37.1 total innings from 2015-16. His rate wasn’t always this high.

We have data on a lot of things these days but one of those things is not pitcher delivery times. To the untrained eye, Ottavino looks pretty slow to the plate. Colorado’s primary catchers (Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters) are not particularly good throwers, which didn’t help matters. I’m not sure whether Ottavino has pickoff throw issues. Being slow to the plate seems like the primary culprit here. That makes Ottavino an easy target.

A late-inning reliever who is slow to the plate and prone to stolen bases is suboptimal. It’s not the end of the world — Betances and Chad Green (12.4% attempt rate) allowed plenty of stolen base attempts last year and they were great — but it’s not ideal either. The league catches on quick. Once a weakness is found, teams will exploit it until the player adjusts or is out of the league. You can be sure the Rays and Red Sox are aware of Ottavino’s stolen base issues already.

Gary Sanchez is one of the best throwing catchers in baseball, far better than Iannetta and Wolters, which could help Ottavino to some degree. The 2018 throwing data:

  • Sanchez: 1.94 second pop-time and 86.8 mph average throw
  • Romine: 2.04 second pop-time and 84.5 mph average throw
  • Iannetta: 2.04 second pop-time and 81.4 mph average throw
  • Wolters: 1.99 second pop-time and 78.5 mph average throw

Sanchez had the fourth highest average throw velocity and the sixth highest average pop-time among the 67 catchers to make at least ten throws last year. Gary, Jorge Alfaro (1.94 and 90.8), and J.T. Realmuto (1.90 and 87.8) are in a class of their own when it comes to throwing. They rank top six in both pop time and throw velocity. No one else is particularly close to doing both that well.

Throwing to Sanchez rather than Iannetta and Wolters could help Ottavino avoid stolen bases going forward, but remember, Gary spent time behind the plate with Betances in 2016, and that didn’t stop the steals. Runners went 6-for-6 stealing bases against Dellin in his 12 innings with Sanchez in 2016. When the pitcher is slow to the plate, there’s only so much the catcher can do to prevent steals.

The potential x-factor here is Ottavino’s ability and willingness to make pickoff throws. Some pitchers are just flat out terrible throwing over to first base. They’re uncomfortable doing it for whatever reason. The Yankees got Betances to make some pickoff throws the last two years and, if Ottavino has an issue with them, the club might be able to help him get over it too. If Ottavino is okay with pickoff throws, well, that’s one fewer potential solution.

Ottavino has always been an easy target for stolen bases — he went into the 2018 season with a career 10.3% attempt rate — but last season was extreme even for him. Perhaps it was a fluky outlier year? Betances allowed 21 steals in 2016 and 21 steals total in the two years since. Stolen bases are on the decline league-wide and, in this era of launch angle, I see no reason to believe that trend will reverse anytime soon. That is now how the game is played nowadays.

The threat of a stolen base always seems to cause more panic than an actual stolen base. Even if we are talking about 20-ish stolen bases, it’s 20-ish stolen bases across 70-something innings, and not every stolen base leads to a run. (Nine of the 24 steals Ottavino allowed last year led to a run.) The few extra runs they do create hurt, especially with Ottavino likely to see high-leverage work, but the steals are a nuisance more than a fatal flaw.

Ottavino’s stolen base issues may be somewhat curbed going forward thanks to having Sanchez behind the plate and the chance teams won’t attempt that many steals again. Also, the Yankees are not stupid. They knew what they were getting into with Ottavino and likely have some ideas to help him better hold runners. Pickoff throws, varying times, etc. They have experience with stolen base prone pitchers and will put it to work with Ottavino.

Getting way from Coors Field could help Adam Ottavino be more consistently dominant

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(Mark Brown/Getty)

From a stathead standpoint, the Yankees made their most interesting move of the offseason two weeks ago, when they agreed to a three-year contract with Adam Ottavino. Ottavino is very much into analytics. The native New Yorker used state of the art tracking equipment to rebuild himself in a Harlem storefront last winter. The result was a dominant season and a nice three-year contract. It worked so well he did it again this offseason.

“I still have my same space (in Harlem),” said Ottavino to Bryan Hoch last week. “The way I developed my practice plan last year was very effective. I just tried to continue what I was doing and build off of it with some small changes to see if I can get a little bit more out of myself. I’m still working on a new pitch. Not sure if it’ll be game-ready or not this year, but I’ve been working to expand my arsenal. I’m just trying to take a growth mindset into every day.”

Ottavino has three pitches but he doesn’t use his cutter a whole lot, so he’s essentially a two-pitch reliever with a show-me third pitch. Perhaps the pitch he’s working on this winter is a splitter? Not sure. I hope we find out. Ottavino’s moneymaker is a big low-80s slider that darts away from right-handed batters. He also uses a two-seam fastball …

… that has power to it. His slider gets so much attention because of its cartoonish movement that it’s easy to forget this dude has a mid-90s two-seamer that runs all over the place and topped out at 98.5 mph last year. Last year Ottavino used his slider 45% of the time, his two-seamer 40% of the time, and his cutter 10% of the time. The other 5% was get-me-over four-seamers and pitches Statcast probably misclassified.

Weirdly, Ottavino was more effective at home in Coors Field than on the road throughout his career. Last year he posted a 2.10 ERA (2.49 FIP) at home and a 2.70 ERA (2.93 FIP) on the road. From 2012-18 he had a 3.36 ERA (3.32 FIP) in 206 innings at Coors Field and a 3.46 ERA (3.53 FIP) in 184.2 innings on the road. Huh. I mean, it’s not a huge difference, but the fact Ottavino was better at Coors Field than on the road is unusual.

Although he didn’t come out and say it, Ottavino indicated he’s looking forward to getting out of Coors Field during his introductory conference call last week. I can’t blame him. It must feel like walking on eggshells pitching in that park. Ottavino said he’s especially excited about the movement on his pitches away from Coors Field and specifically the consistency of that movement.

“There are some adjustments you have to make with altitude, and understanding how a pitch will break there compared to at sea level and calibrating,” Ottavino said to Dan Martin. “(My slider) should move more at home this season. I’m especially excited about the movement on my other pitchers, the two-seam fastball and cutter. It should be a little easier to be consistent.”

Real quick physics crash course: Gravity pushes oxygen closer to the Earth’s surface, so the higher the elevation, the less oxygen. Air resistance against the seams of a thrown (or hit) baseball create movement. Change the ball’s spin and spin axis and you create different movement. That’s how you get fastballs, sliders, etc. Because there is less oxygen at altitude, there is less resistance, and pitches do not move as much as they do at sea level. Got that? Good.

This is the crux of the Coors Field hangover argument. Rockies hitters see different break at home than on the road, so while Coors Field undoubtedly boosts their numbers because the ball carries more and the outfield is huge, they also have to make an adjustment each time they go out on the road because they’re seeing different movement. It’s tough. Pitching is no different. Check out the difference in movement on Ottavino’s pitches last year:

Two-Seamer Cutter Slider
Spin H Mvmt V Mvmt Spin H Mvmt V Mvmt Spin H Mvmt V Mvmt
Home 2,320 -11.5 +6.0 2,609 +5.3 +5.2 2,817 +14.1 -0.6
Away 2,266 -14.0 +7.0 2,602 +6.9 +7.6 2,768 +17.8 +1.2

The difference in spin rate on the two-seamer and slider is relatively small. About 2.3% on the two-seamer and 1.7% on the slider. That’s nothing compared to the difference in movement. On the road Ottavino’s two-seamer had 2.5 inches of extra horizontal break* in on righties, on average, while his slider had 3.7 inches of extra horizontal break away from righties. That’s huge! His cutter, his seldom used third pitch, also had more horizontal movement on the road. Everything Ottavino throws moves a lot. It moves more away from Coors Field.

* Positive horizontal movement is movement away from righty batters and negative horizontal movement is movement away from lefty batters. Vertical movement tells us how much the pitch deviates from a straight line trajectory without considering gravity. Positive vertical movement doesn’t mean the ball is rising. It just means it’s dropping less. Fastballs with positive vertical movement are fastballs with “life,” so to speak.

On average, right-handed Rockies pitchers other than Ottavino saw their two-seamer move an extra 4.2 inches (!) horizontally on the road than at Coors Field last year. That’s an even larger difference than Ottavino’s two-seam fastball. Their sliders only picked up an extra inch or so horizontally, which isn’t as significant as the two-seam movement, but it’s not nothing either. Ottavino gains almost four inches on the slider on the road.

Extra movement sounds pretty cool, though I have to think getting different movement on your pitches at home than on the road can be a challenge. Ottavino’s unintentional walk rate was 8.5% at home and 11.4% on the road last season. What are the chances all that extra movement — several inches of movement on his two main pitches — contributed to the increase walked rate on the road? I think the chances are pretty good.

Ottavino said his slider “should move more at home this season” and that’s pretty cool. I think the most important thing Ottavino said is it “should be a little easier to be consistent” with his pitches. Imagine having a nice ten-day homestand, then going out on a seven-day road trip and having to adjust to your pitches having more movement, and then going back home and adjusting to less movement, over and over again all year. Has to be tough. Has to be.

We’ve never seen this version (or any version) of Ottavino away from Coors Field for an extended period of time. Only bits and pieces, and only when there was the hangover effect to consider. There will be no hangover effect going forward. Ottavino won’t have to deal with pitching at altitude. In theory, it’ll make him more consistent because his pitches will move the same at home and on the road. And, in theory, that’ll make him more effective overall.

Ottavino pitched well enough in Coors Field that pitching at sea level full-time and developing some consistency may not improve his performance. He might just stay the same pitcher as he ages and hey, that’s fine with me. Ottavino is really good. That he’s willing to use analytics to get better and is getting away from altitude makes me think he can still take his performance to another level. He’ll have that many fewer in-season adjustments to make because he won’t have different movement at home as on the road, and that’ll make life much easier.

Update: Yankees sign Adam Ottavino to three-year deal

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(Matthew Stockman/Getty)

January 24th: The Yankees announced the Ottavino signing this afternoon, so it is official. No other move is required because the Sonny Gray trade cleared a 40-man roster spot earlier this week. The press release says Ottavino will indeed wear No. 0. Pretty cool. He’ll be the first player in franchise history to wear No. 0, the last unretired single digit.

January 17th: Two weeks after re-signing Zach Britton, the Yankees have their second reliever addition. According to multiple reports the Yankees have agreed to a three-year contract worth $27M with free agent righty Adam Ottavino. That is exactly what the Rockies, Ottavino’s former team, gave Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw last year. The Yankees have not yet confirmed the deal.

“When he called me two nights ago and told me, he had the sound of happiness in his voice I haven’t heard in a very long time. He could not possibly be happier,” said Ottavino’s father to Zach Braziller. “I’m happy whenever anybody gets what they want, and he really got what he wanted. Playing for the Yankees was worth an awful lot to him. At the end, playing for the Yankees was very important to him.”

These days top notch relievers are fetching more than $10M annually — seven relievers will make eight figures this coming season, not including the still unsigned Craig Kimbrel — and it seems the Yankees may’ve traded the third guaranteed year for a lower average annual salary. Andrew Miller and David Robertson, who are roughly the same age as Ottavino, received two-year guarantees this winter.

Ottavino, 33, is a native New Yorker who was born in Manhattan and grew up in Brooklyn, which is pretty cool. Between he and Dellin Betances, the Yankees have two true homegrown players in their bullpen. Neat. Ottavino threw 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts last season. He’s really good and there are several reasons the Yankees were smart to sign him.

With Ottavino on board, the Yankees have accounted for six of their eight bullpen spots. The six spots:

  • Closer: Aroldis Chapman
  • Setup: Dellin Betances, Zach Britton
  • Middle: Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Adam Ottavino

That is pretty stellar, at least on paper. Relievers are notoriously fickle, so we’ll have to see how things play out on the field. Right now, the Yankees have quite a collection of bullpen talent. Figure the out-of-options Tommy Kahnle gets one of the final two bullpen spots, with the last one going to a traditional swingman/spot starter or being used as a revolving door spot.

Of course, Ottavino is not without risk. He is one year removed from a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) with 16.1% walks in 53.1 innings. Even last season he had an 11.7% walk rate. Also, Ottavino has Tommy John surgery in the not-too-distant past (May 2015) and you have to go all the way back to 2013 for the last time he was as good as he was last year. The Yankees are betting 2018 Ottavino is the real Ottavino.

My quick math puts the 2019 luxury tax payroll at $228.5M, assuming Luis Severino wins his arbitration hearing. (It’ll be $227.65M if he loses.) That is over the $226M second luxury tax tier and subjects the Yankees to a 32% surtax. Trading Sonny Gray and his $7.5M salary will get the Yankees back under the $226M threshold and I’d bet the farm on that happening. Trade Gray and find a cheaper swingman.

Given their current payroll situation, signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado would undoubtedly push the Yankees over the $246M third luxury tax threshold, which kicks in another surtax and pushes their 2020 first round draft pick back ten spots. I mean, they’ve done this much, right? Might as well keep going. I won’t hold my breath. Either way, adding Ottavino to the bullpen is a big addition. Nicely done.

Thoughts after the Yankees agree to sign Adam Ottavino

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(Dustin Bradford/Getty)

The Yankees came into the offseason wanting two relievers and they have added two relievers. Last week the Yankees agreed to a three-year, $27M contract with Adam Ottavino. That comes two weeks after they re-signed Zach Britton. The bullpen’s looking pretty good right now and my list of six things the Yankees still have to do this winter is down to five. Here are some thoughts on the Ottavino deal.

1. There are three things I really like about Ottavino. One, he misses a ton of bats. This is a big deal for me. I want as few balls in play as possible in the late innings of a close game. At all times, really, but especially in the late innings of close games. Last year 336 pitchers threw at least 50 innings. Ottavino had the ninth highest strikeout rate (36.3%) and 20th lowest contact rate (68.1%). That’ll work. Two, he dominated left-handed batters last season. Held them to a .174/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) batting line with 32.4% strikeouts and 47.1% grounders. (Five intentional walks are inflating the OBP a bit. Remove them and it’s a .291 OBP.) Relievers without a significant platoon split are my jam. And three, Ottavino knows all about pitching in a tough environment. Pitching in Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general is no fun. It’s a very hitter friendly home ballpark in a division with three other hitter friendly ballparks. It’s not easy. Well, Ottavino spent the last seven years of his career calling Coors Field home, so he knows all about pitching in a tough park, where every mistake could wind up over the fence. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to succeed in Yankee Stadium, of course. I just like that he has experience in a very difficult home ballpark. It’s one fewer mental adjustment he has to make, in theory.

2. I’ve linked to it before and I’m going to link to it again: Ottavino turned his career around in a vacant Harlem storefront last offseason. It’s a wonderful story. I suspect many players would benefit from that level of self-analysis. I mention this again because it clearly shows Ottavino is into analytics and state-of-the-art training methods, and the Yankees are one of the most analytically inclined teams in the game. The Rockies … are not. (In October, Marc Carig and Eno Sarris reported the Yankees employ approximately 20 analysts. The Rockies have four.) I’m looking forward to seeing how Ottavino and the Yankees work together. Or, rather, seeing the results of their efforts, because we usually don’t get to peek behind the curtain to see the process. Maybe the result is not Ottavino getting better, the way he did last year. Maybe the result is simply maintaining that level of performance deeper into his career. We are talking about a reliever entering his mid-30s, after all. Long story short, Ottavino and the Yankees appear to be a very good fit for each other given their commitment to analytics and using data to get better. Not many players are open to these ideas, which is fine. To each their own. Ottavino is and now he’s with one of the top analytic organizations in the game.

3. That all said, Ottavino does come with risk. Considerable risk, I’d say. There’s a reason he had to rebuild himself last offseason and that’s because he stunk in 2017. He is one season removed from a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) with a 16.1% walk rate in 53.1 innings. Colorado left him off their 2017 NL Wild Card Game roster. This is about as spectacular a meltdown as you’ll see:

Yikes! That was a long time ago though. Ottavino worked hard last offseason and corrected whatever was wrong with him in 2017. He failed, he adjusted, he succeeded. This is still a reminder Ottavino is not bringing a long track record to the table. Only twice in his career has he performed like he did in 2018 across a full season: 2013 and 2018. The Yankees are assuming some risk here and I think that, given the state of the bullpen, they’re better able to absorb that risk than most teams. Should Ottavino struggle with his control again, the Yankees have the depth to cover the late innings, the same way they had the depth to cover the late innings two years ago, when Dellin Betances lost the plate. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. Even the best relievers can have poor seasons out of nowhere. If the Yankees get all their relievers clicking on all cylinders this year, they’ll be unstoppable. If Ottavino struggles like he did in 2017 again, they won’t be as good as they can be, but they’ll have enough high-end bullpen arms to handle all those high-leverage innings.

4. Potentially stupid question: Is Ottavino a luxury? I mean, there’s always room for another high-end reliever in the bullpen, especially these days, but there are only so many high-leverage innings to go around. Dan Szymborski wrote about this following the Adam Warren trade. Long story short, as effective as Warren was last year, he was far down the bullpen depth and pitching in low-leverage spots. It was a waste of his ability. So, rather than continue using Warren that way, the Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip and let cheaper relievers (Luis Cessa and A.J. Cole) pitch in those situations. That’s the argument against “too many good relievers.” There aren’t enough high-leverage innings for everyone. I don’t agree with it but I do understand it. There are three reasons I don’t consider Ottavino a luxury. One, injuries and poor performance happen, and I want as many quality options as possible going into the season. At the deadline I’d rather be the team in position to trade away an Adam Warren than the team that needs an Adam Warren, you know? Two, starters are throwing fewer innings with each passing season, which means more innings for the bullpen. Inevitably, many of those extra bullpen innings are high-leverage innings. And three, every inning in the postseason should be treated as a high-leverage inning. That’s really what the super bullpen idea is about. The postseason. I know the Yankees had a super bullpen last year and I know they lost in the ALDS. That doesn’t mean they should stop building super bullpens. In October, when every single inning means something, the more quality relievers a team has, the greater their chances of success. Across the 162-game regular season, yeah, maybe Ottavino is a luxury. I don’t consider him a luxury for the postseason though, and besides, these are the Yankees. They should be all about luxury items.

5. I am curious to see what the bullpen roles will be this season. They tend to change year-to-year — at this point last year not many folks were counting on Dellin Betances taking over as the unquestioned eighth inning guy again — and pitchers work themselves into roles organically. They just kinda happen. I can see these being the bullpen roles going into the season:

  • Closer: Aroldis Chapman
  • Eighth Inning: Dellin Betances
  • Seventh Inning: Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino (based on matchups?)
  • Fireman: Chad Green

That leaves Jonathan Holder and the two still to be determined relievers for all other situations. They’re the “only when losing” relievers, basically. David Robertson was so great as the fireman and now I’m not sure who fits best in that role. Betances is an easy target for stolen bases. Ottavino still walks a few too many. Britton allows a few too many balls in play for my liking. Green was used in that role quite a bit last season and I imagine he’ll get the first crack at it this year. We’ll see. Like I said, bullpen roles tend to change throughout the season, so there’s no sense sweating them in January. I could see what I’ve laid out above being the roles going into the year, then the Yankees adjusting as necessary. This’ll all work itself out and I’m curious to see how.

6. Do the Yankees have the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in baseball right now? Sounds crazy, I know, but it might be true. On paper, at least. Who knows how things will play out on the field. Here are the top projected 2019 pitching staffs according to FanGraphs:

  1. Yankees: +22.8 WAR
  2. Indians: +21.9 WAR
  3. Astros: +20.3 WAR
  4. Mets: +19.9 WAR
  5. Dodgers: +19.6 WAR

Reminder: Projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate a player’s current true talent level and right now the numbers think the Yankees have the most pitching talent in baseball. It’s not all because of the bullpen either. The Yankees have the third highest projected rotation WAR in baseball. Again, we’ll see how it plays out on the field, because injuries and other unexpected things happen, but that is pretty cool. Sonny Gray is going to be traded and I’d like the Yankees to bring in a veteran swingman/sixth starter type — I’ve banged on the Francisco Liriano drum a few times this winter and there’s no reason to stop now — and I suspect they will. Otherwise I feel great about the bullpen and very good about the rotation top four. I’m also more confident in CC Sabathia than many folks seem to be. Maybe the anti-Sabathia folks started following baseball in the ALDS. Well, whatever. Over the weekend Bob wrote the Yankees have an underrated pitching staff. That is true. This isn’t a good pitching staff. This is a great pitching staff with a chance to be one of the very best in the game.

7. Does the Ottavino signing mean anything for Betances long-term? Betances will be a free agent next offseason and the Yankees already have three big money relievers on the books in Britton, Chapman, and Ottavino. Those three will combine for $39.2M against the luxury tax payroll the next three seasons. Would the Yankees really give a market rate contract to Betances and spend something like $50M annually on four relievers? Maybe they would. Two things to consider here. One, Betances will make $7.25M this year, so the Yankees are already at $46.45M for four relievers in 2019. A market rate contract means Dellin would get something like a $5M raise after the season, and the extra $5M or so may not be a dealbreaker for the Yankees. And two, Chapman can opt out of his contract after the season, potentially freeing up $17.2M annually. That would obviously impact the team’s spending plans. The first two seasons of Chapman’s contract have been very good overall but also a bit of a mixed bag. In both seasons he spent a month on the disabled list (shoulder in 2017, knee in 2018) and had to be removed from the closer’s role for a few weeks. If that happens again this year, and his velocity continues to drop, I don’t see Chapman opting out. Walking away from two years and $34.4M would be awfully risky given how teams are treating free agents. With a good and a healthy season though, Chapman could opt-out, especially if Craig Kimbrel manages to cash in huge. We’ll see. Ultimately, the single biggest factor in the Yankees’ decision whether to re-sign Betances will be Dellin’s performance this year. With another great season, it’ll be awfully tough to let him walk, especially since we’re only talking a $5M or so raise on top of what he’s currently making. I don’t think the Ottavino (or Britton) deal means anything for Betances’ future with the team.

(Jeff Curry/Getty)

8. It seems to me the Yankees traded a third guaranteed year for a lower average annual value. Andrew Miller (two years, $25M with a vesting option) and David Robertson (two years, $23M with a club option) are roughly the same age as Ottavino and they landed two-year guarantees with a higher annual salary. Ottavino doesn’t have their track records, but it seemed to me he was in line for a similar contract. Two years at $11M to $12M per season, with some sort of third year option. Instead, he got the third guaranteed year, and the Yankees saved $2M to $3M annually. This wouldn’t be the first time the Yankees traded an extra year for a lower average annual salary and thus a lower luxury tax hit. They reportedly did the same thing with Chase Headley. Even with a higher luxury tax number, I would’ve preferred re-signing Robertson to signing Ottavino. They’re basically the same age and Ottavino’s track record is way shorter. His upside is basically what Robertson has been doing the last eight years. I am more confident in Robertson being great the next two years than I am Ottavino. That said, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two, and ultimately the Yankees got three years of Ottavino for only $4M more than the Phillies will pay for two years of Robertson (or $2M more than the Cardinals will pay for two years of Miller). This seems like a repeat of the 2014-15 offseason. That winter the Yankees let a known commodity in Robertson walk and replaced him with Miller, a similarly dominant reliever with a much shorter track record on a cheaper contract. That worked out quite well. Passing on Miller or Robertson in favor of Ottavino is a similar decision.

9. The Ottavino signing pushes the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll to $228.5M based on my back of the envelope math. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. The Yankees are either slightly above or closing in on the $226M second luxury tax threshold and the still not complete Sonny trade will give them breathing room. The $226M threshold may be the team’s limit. They get hit with a surtax at that point — their top 2020 draft pick moves back ten spots when they hit the $246M threshold, not the $226M threshold (my bad for screwing that up earlier) — and, generally speaking, it gives them less financial flexibility going forward. I am on team sign everyone. Bring me Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and spend that money. What’s the point of creating payroll flexibility if you’re not going to use it to land stars in their prime? Anyway, the Yankees are clearly going to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold this coming season. I didn’t think it would happen and I am happy to be wrong. Realistically, there’s no way now to get under the $206M threshold and stay there all season. Will they exceed the $226M threshold? Unless there’s a surprise Machado or Harper signing coming, I don’t think so. Trading Gray gives them about $5M in wiggle room under the $226M threshold and my number already includes an estimate for in-season injury and September call-ups, so that’s $5M for the trade deadline. It may not seem like much but it is, especially since the Yankees have shown a willingness to kick in an extra prospect to get the other team to eat some salary. The Yankees still aren’t running a payroll as high as the one they can almost certainly afford. At least now they have a payroll more commensurate with their status as a World Series contender in the game’s largest market. That’s better than nothing, I guess.

10. And finally, the big question on everyone’s mind: Will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0? No player in Yankees history has worn No. 0 (or No. 00 for that matter). Last week we polled the masses and the response was overwhelmingly in favor of letting Ottavino wear No. 0.

Should the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 and will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 are very different questions. Should they is an easy yes. It’s a uniform number. Why would a player wearing No. 0 bother anyone? They Yankees would probably sell more Ottavino shirts and jerseys with No. 0 than any other number. Will they let him wear No. 0 though? Giving a player No. 0 seems very un-Yankee-like. Then again, I never thought I’d see the day the Yankees wore throwback uniforms or gave a player his own cheering section, but that happened, so maybe they’re loosening up a bit. Eh, whatever. It’s just a uniform number and I’m not going to get worked up about it. Ottavino has worn other numbers as a big leaguer (Nos. 35 and 56 with the Cardinals and No. 37 early with the Rockies) and my guess is he’ll wear something other than No. 0 with the Yankees.

Four reasons the Yankees should pursue Adam Ottavino even after signing Zach Britton

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(Presswire)

Over the weekend the Yankees bolstered their bullpen and agreed to a unique two-year contract with Zach Britton. It’s two years with a two-year club option or a one-year player option. Britton rejoins Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder in the bullpen. A pretty good relief core, that is. The other three bullpen spots are still undecided.

Even after re-signing Britton, the Yankees remain interested in free agent righty Adam Ottavino, report Jon Heyman and Mark Feinsand. The Yankees have been linked to Ottavino all winter and that has not changed. For all intents and purposes, the bullpen right now is the bullpen the Yankees had at the end of last year, minus David Robertson. Ottavino is best realistically available option to replace Robertson.

Ottavino turned 33 earlier this offseason — he is eight months younger than Robertson — and he’s a native New Yorker. Born in Manhattan, raised in Brooklyn, trains in vacant Harlem storefronts in the offseason. At this point he is no worse than the second best free agent reliever on the market behind Craig Kimbrel. To me, aggressively pursuing Ottavino is a no-brainer for the Yankees, for four reasons.

1. He makes them better. I can’t believe I have to point this out, but I have people in my Twitter mentions telling me the Yankees “don’t need” Manny Machado every single day, so I am compelled to spell this out. Ottavino is very good. He struck out 112 batters with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) in 77.2 innings last year and did it while calling Coors Field his home ballpark. Please enjoy these sliders:

Ottavino is very good. He’s been up and down in his career to date but he has the tools to be very successful — I refer you to the aforeembedded slider GIF — and, as last year’s storefront work showed, the drive and the smarts to improve. Ottavino’s really good. He might be bad in the way every free agent signing might be bad, but he’s really good and he’d make the Yankees better. And when you have a win-now roster, getting better should be the top priority. I idea the Yankees “don’t need” any above-average player is silly y’all. More talent equals more wins.

2. He’d give the bullpen another high-strikeout arm. Chapman, even with his velocity dwindling, still misses a ton of bats. Betances misses a ton of bats. Britton hasn’t missed many bats the last two years though, and last season Green’s strikeout rate dropped nearly ten percentage points. That’s one fewer strikeout for every ten batters faced. Pretty significant! Holder’s strikeout rate was more or less league average last year too.

Point is, the Yankees could use one more bona fide bat-misser for the middle innings. Chapman is the closer and Betances is the eighth inning guy until his performance necessitates a demotion. Who’s getting that key strikeout with runners on second and third in the sixth or seventh inning? Green is the club’s best bet right now and, again, his strikeout rate dropped quite a bit last year. Ottavino is as good a bet to get those key strikeouts as any reliever in baseball, and we know the Yankees love strikeouts.

3. Next year’s free agent reliever class stinks. Here is the 2019-20 free agent class. Right now, looking at this in January 2019, the best free agent reliever will be Betances. Ryan Pressly, Steve Cishek, and Jeremy Jeffress stand out as the best of the rest. Ignoring the fact that none of those three can help the Yankees win in 2018, how many would you comfortably expect to outperform — or even match — Ottavino going forward? I think you could argue all of them. I also think you could argue none of them.

There’s also this: Future free agent classes only get worse as time passes. Far more players sign extensions or see their skills diminish than break out and become coveted free agents. Passing on Ottavino now to sign Pressly next year makes some sense. But what if Pressly has a Cody Allen season next year, or the Astros lock him up? I don’t agree with it, but you could argue the Yankees should pass on Machado now and instead sign Nolan Arenado next year. There’s a viable alternative. I can’t imagine making that claim with a relief pitcher though.

4. The 2020 bullpen is a tad unsettled. Betances will be a free agent next winter and Chapman could opt out of his contract after this coming season. I don’t think it’ll happen, but you never know. He’d be walking away from two years and $34.4M. Maybe Chapman and his agent will believe there are three years and $45M sitting out there waiting to be had next offseason? I dunno but I guess we’ll find out in ten months.

It’s easy to say the Yankees should re-sign Betances after the season — as far as I’m concerned, he should be a Forever Yankee — but gosh, who knows? Love the guy but he is quite volatile. You don’t have to try real hard to see a scenario in with Chapman opts out and the Yankees walk away from Betances. In that case, the Yankees would be better situated for 2020 because they’d have Ottavino and Britton, Green, and Holder, not just the latter three. There would be less desperation for bullpen help (in a crummy free agent market).

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Remember, Ottavino would not replace Betances or Britton or one of the other primary end-game relievers this coming season. He would replace Tommy Kahnle or Luis Cessa or whoever would get the final bullpen spot otherwise. Ottavino makes the Yankees much better and the goal should be getting better given the current state of the franchise. There’s a time for a patience and a time to go all-in, and, right now, the Yankees should go all-in.

The way the Yankees are constructed, with starters who don’t pitch deep into games (because the team doesn’t let them), acquiring as much high-end bullpen help as possible is a necessity more than a luxury. The Yankees are a David Robertson short of last year’s very good bullpen and Ottavino would fill that role perfectly, that middle innings bat-misser. He’s also better than almost every top reliever scheduled to hit the free agent market year, so consider signing Ottavino now part of next offseason’s shopping as well.

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

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Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

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Yankees pls. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

  • 7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
  • 5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
  • 3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
  • 3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
  • 2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
  • 11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
  • 9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
  • 9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
  • 9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
  • 9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]