Albert Pujols Archives - River Avenue Blues

Let’s try to find a bad contract-for-bad contract trade for Jacoby Ellsbury

April 21, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Jacoby Ellsbury is a problem. Following last night’s 1-for-3 game, he is hitting .263/.321/.383 (95 wRC+) with 4.8 WAR in two years and 13 games as a Yankee. He’s now 32 years old, his defense is kinda sorta slipping, and he is still under contract for another four years and 149 games. Ellsbury is talented and he could certainly turn things around, but yeah. Outlook not so good.

Trading Ellsbury is far-fetched. He’s owed roughly $110M through 2020, and very few teams can and will be open to taking on that much money. Did you see how long it took good outfielders like Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes to sign this past offseason? Ellsbury’s value is down well below those two. And oh by the way he has a full no-trade clause, so he can shoot down any deal. Not great, Bob.

Unless the Yankees eat a ton of money, which just isn’t happening, any Ellsbury trade would have to be a bad contract-for-bad contract trade. Those trades are surprisingly rare — straight salary dumps are much more common — but they do happen from time to time. At Ellsbury’s pay grade though? Forget it. It’s never happened at that salary. Moving Ellsbury in a bad contract-for-bad contract deal would be unprecedented. Not impossible, just unprecedented.

The number of teams with a similar bad contracts to trade are limited — there are lots of bad contracts out there, but few have over $100M remaining — and even fewer need a player like Ellsbury. Finding a match is tough. Here are four possible fits — I guess it’s five, but there’s no sense in listing the Red Sox and some ridiculous Pablo Sandoval scenario — for a bad contract-for-bad contract trade that sends Ellsbury elsewhere. The teams are listed alphabetically.

The Team: Los Angeles Angels
The Player: Albert Pujols
The Remaining Money: $165M through 2021

Does It Make Sense For The Angels? Oh yes. The Halos would shed more than $50M in future salary obligation and get a more dynamic two-way player. They could stick C.J. Cron at first base full-time, put Ellsbury in the leadoff spot and in either center or left field (Mike Trout has played a ton of left field), and then find a cheap DH. Angels GM Billy Eppler may have some lingering affinity for Ellsbury dating back to his time as Brian Cashman’s right hand man.

Does It Make Sense For the Yankees? Nope. Even if the two teams finagle the money so the Yankees don’t take on any additional cash, New York would be acquiring the older and much more one-dimensional player. The last thing they need is another lumbering DH type on the wrong side of 35. Sure, they could stick Pujols at first base and let Mark Teixeira leave next offseason, then put Pujols at DH and Greg Bird at first when Alex Rodriguez retires the offseason after that, but yuck. This one doesn’t work for the Yankees at all. That Pujols contract is the worst contract in baseball.

The Team: San Diego Padres
The Players: Matt Kemp and James Shields
The Remaining Money: $117.75M through 2018 plus another $20.25M in 2019

Does It Make Sense For The Padres? It might! They’re currently rebuilding and looking to both shed money and add prospects. Ellsbury for the Kemp/Shields duo wouldn’t net them any prospects, but it would wipe almost $30M off the books, reduce their annual payroll through 2018, and also land them an upgrade in the outfield. Kemp has a degenerative condition in his hips and is a year or two away from being a first baseman or DH, and DHs do not exist in the NL. Ellsbury gives them the kind of speedy contact hitter who would ostensibly thrive in spacious Petco Park.

Does It Make Sense For the Yankees? Again: it might! Shields’ contract complicates things because he can opt-out after the season. If Shields opts out, the the Padres would actually end up taking on money in this trade because he would be walking away from $44M. I suppose the two sides could work out a conditional trade — if Shields opts out, the Yankees send a prospect or two over, or kick in more money — but when things start getting that complicated, bet against it happening.

If nothing else, Shields would give the Yankees an innings guy even though he’s dangerously close to a Sabathia-esque decline. Kemp would fit in decently. They could put him in left this year to replace Ellsbury, then put him and Aaron Judge in the corners next season since Carlos Beltran will be gone, and then put him at DH once A-Rod retires. Kemp would also add another righty bat. Would the Yankees take on money to move Ellsbury and take two declining players in return though? Seems unlikely.

Kemp alone would not work — the Padres owe him only $73M through 2019, so significantly less than the Yankees owe Ellsbury — so Kemp plus Shields it is. The Yankees would be taking on more money in the short-term, screwing up their plan to get under the luxury tax threshold, but the contracts would be off the books a year sooner. That’s not something that should be glossed over. They’d get out of the bad deal(s) sooner.

The Team: Seattle Mariners
The Player: Robinson Cano
The Remaining Money: $192M through 2023

Does It Make Sense For The Mariners? Yes if the only goal is shedding approximately $80M and three years worth of contract. No if the goal is improving the roster. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s no doubt about that, and the difference in the contract commitments is massive. Seattle doesn’t have a ready made second base replacement and they don’t really need another outfielder, so Ellsbury doesn’t fit their roster, at least not in the super short-term. Their motivation for a Cano-for-Ellsbury deal would be dumping all that money.

Does It Make Sense For the Yankees? No for a few reasons. One, that’s way too much money to take on. The Yankees had a chance to re-sign Cano and balked at that price. I personally would rather have Cano for ten years and $240M than Ellsbury for seven years and $153M, but that’s just me. Obviously the Yankees feel differently, otherwise Robbie would still be wearing pinstripes.

Two, the Yankees now have Starlin Castro at second base, so they don’t really need Cano. An Ellsbury plus Castro for Cano deal would be fun in an lolwtf way — it would also even out the money slightly — but c’mon. The Yankees aren’t going to add Castro to the trade and still take on $40M or so just to get rid of Ellsbury. Not happening.

In a vacuum where positions and things like that don’t matter, I’d trade Ellsbury for Cano in an instant. This ain’t no vacuum though. That stuff matters and neither player fits the roster of their would-be new team. Ellsbury for Cano seems like the kind of trade none of us would even consider had Cano not been a Yankee once upon a time.

The Team: Texas Rangers
The Player: Shin-Soo Choo
The Remaining Money: $102M through 2020

Does It Make Sense For The Rangers? Finally, a trade that seems remotely plausible. Ellsbury and Choo both signed seven-year contracts two offseasons go, and while Ellsbury received an additional $23M in guaranteed money, Choo’s deal was back-loaded, so the two are owed similar dollars from 2016-20. Bridging the gap between the $102M left on Choo’s deal and the $110M left on Ellsbury’s doesn’t seem like it would be a huge issue, right?

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has reportedly coveted Ellsbury for years, so I’m sure there’s still some level of interest there. The problem? The Rangers have a good young center fielder and leadoff hitter in Delino DeShields Jr., who is making close to the league minimum. Texas also has a top flight center field prospect in Lewis Brinson at Triple-A. They have options at that position, so it’s not a pressing need.

Either way, the Rangers will have a declining veteran outfielder making $20M+ a year through 2020 on their roster. The question is whether they prefer Choo or Ellsbury, who are very different players. Ellsbury is the two-way threat and Choo is the bat first guy. They both have their pluses and minuses. This would almost be like a change of scenery trade.

Does It Make Sense For the Yankees? I think so, even if the money is evened out. The Yankees need Choo’s offense — he’s hit .259/.360/.419 (114 wRC+) with the Rangers, including .276/.375/.463 (127 wRC+) in 2015 — more than they need Ellsbury’s two-way skill set. Choo slots in perfectly in left field in the short-term, then at DH in the long-term once A-Rod is gone. As with the Rangers, the Yankees are going to have a declining veteran outfielder making $20M+ a year on their roster no matter what. Would they prefer that player to be Choo or Ellsbury?

* * *

It goes without saying those four bad contract-for-bad contract trades above are all pretty unrealistic and very unlikely to happen. This just goes to show how tough it would be to move Ellsbury without eating a significant chunk of money. It’s not impossible, crazier things have happened, but his trade value is very low for the time being. And of course there’s the whole no trade clause thing.

My sense is the Yankees really like Ellsbury as a player and wouldn’t look to move him in a bad contract-for-bad contract deal. Their best course of action is to remain patient and hope he shakes off his slow start, and gets back to being the dynamic leadoff hitter he was prior to his knee injury last year. Ellsbury’s contract is really bad, and while trading him seems like a good idea, it’s very possible the best bang for all that buck will come from Ellsbury, not a declining player on another team’s roster.

Angels sign Albert Pujols (UPDATE: And C.J. Wilson too)

December 8, 2011 by Joe Pawlikowski 219 Comments

It’s not Yankees-related, but it’s huge for baseball. This morning Albert Pujols left the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals to sign a 10-year contract with the Anaheim Angels. Pujols will earn between $250 and $260 million. Just speculating from the rumors this winter, I’d wager it’s above $252 million, giving Pujols the second largest deal in major league history. The Angels will be at Yankee Stadium on the weekend of April 13th for a three-game set, the homer opener.

Update: Joel Sherman says the Angels have agreed to terms with C.J. Wilson as well. It’s a five-year, $75M contract according to Jon Heyman. I can’t believe he got less than A.J. Burnett and John Lackey, though I suppose he could have taken a bit of a discount to go back home to SoCal. Pretty significant day in the NL West, the Halos really closed the gap between them and the Rangers.

Add by Mike: Jayson Stark reported late last night that a mystery team had joined the Pujols bidding, and that it was a club with an established big name first baseman they’d need trade to accommodate Pujols. The Yankees fit that bill, but Buster Olney says that no, they weren’t the mystery team.

Mailbag: Garcia, Gardner, D-Rob, Pujols, CC

August 5, 2011 by Mike 46 Comments

In this week’s edition of the RAB Mailbag, we’re going to focus on some future issues/hypotheticals, not necessarily things going on with the Yankees right now. If you want to send in a question, make sure you use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Brandon asks: With Freddy Garcia having a great season he has put himself in position to be a Type-B free agent, do you see the Yankees offering him arbitration?

Garcia currently projects as a Type-B free agent and is pretty safe, I think we’re too deep into the season for him to pitch his way out of that ranking. Although his base salary is just $1.5M, he’s got another $3.6M in incentives in his contract, which are based on the number of starts he makes. For the sake of argument, let’s just say he makes the 30 starts needed to earn all that cash (he’s got 19 starts right now) so his base salary going into a potential arbitration case would be $5.1M.

That’s nothing given Freddy’s performance, and I figure a winning arbitration case would net him a $8-9M or so salary next year. I’d rather give him another low base salary, incentive-laden deal, but I don’t think that salary is so outrageous that they can’t risk an arbitration offer. There’s always a possible handshake agreements as well, like we saw with Javy Vazquez last year. Gun to my head, yeah I think they’ll offer arbitration as long as he stays healthy.

Shaun asks: When is Brett Gardner arb eligible? What do you think he will get first time through? Same question for Robertson. Thanks!

Both guys are arbitration eligible for the first time after this season. I’ll do a more in-depth analysis during the offseason in my hilariously inaccurate Arbitration Case series, but neither guy will make big bucks next year. Brett Gardner’s primary value is his defense, which is still way undervalued in arbitration because no one’s going to bother explaining the advanced metrics to the arbiters. Robertson is just a non-closing reliever, which is about the worst demographic you can be in if you want to make big money as a big leaguer. I figure Gardner is in line for $2.5M or so (about what Michael Bourn got his first time through arbitration), Robertson about $1.5M (a notch below what Joba Chamberlain got, when he had a season as a starter under his belt), but those are just early estimations.

Planks asks: Not feasible for the Yankees considering Teixeira is at 1b for a long time, but if Pujols expresses strong interest in joining the Yankees this offseason, what contract would you offer? What do you think he will get from the Cards?

Well if he expressed a strong interest in coming to New York, I would assume he’d be amiable to a discount. The thing about Albert Pujols is that he’s having a down year by his standards, “just” a .370 wOBA when his career average is .431. That’s a significant drop-off, plus he is 31 (will be 32 by Opening Day 2012) and has had on-and-off elbow trouble for a few years. It’s going to take a huge commitment to sign him, so you have to at least consider the possibility that this year isn’t a fluke and the sign of decline. I don’t think that’s the case, but the possibly can’t be ignored.

Yankee Stadium is way more hitter friendly than Busch Stadium, though Pujols is one of those guys were park factors don’t matter too much. He’s a great hitter anywhere and has the power to hit the ball out of any park. Does six years and $183M sound reasonable? That’s $27M per season with a $5M signing bonus and a $10M buyout of a seventh year option worth whatever amount ($30M? $35M?). I’m sure Pujols and his agent are thinking Alex Rodriguez money, but the Yankees know the pitfalls of a contract that huge first hand. I’m sure St. Louis would top that offer with a smile on their face, but I wouldn’t offer more in my amateur opinion.

CC Sabathia — (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Sam asks: Should CC be getting MVP consideration? Where would be be without the big guy?

I’m not one of those guys think that pitchers should be ineligible for the MVP just because they “have their own award” in the Cy Young, and in fact nothing in the MVP voting criteria explicitly says to omit pitchers. I’m also not one of those guys that thinks there’s a difference between “most valuable” and “best.” The best player in the league should win the MVP because he’s the most valuable to his team. Whether or not the team is in contention is irrelevant to me, Jose Bautista shouldn’t be punished because his teammates stink, which is something completely out of his control. Anyway, that’s my two cents.

I don’t like to look at WAR for MVP voting because a) I don’t love it for pitchers (especially relievers), and b) I don’t like the way a one-year sample of defensive numbers are used, so the fact that Sabathia is so high on the WAR leaderboard means little to me. Position players play every day and overall I think an elite position player contributes more to his team than an elite starting pitcher. Sabathia certainly deserves some MVP consideration, but I don’t think I’d have him among the ten names on my ballot. Among pitchers alone, I’d definitely have Justin Verlander ahead of him, and I’d probably have Jered Weaver ahead of him too. CC’s been phenomenal, no doubt about it, but I think some others are more deserving.

Jimmy asks: It’s been very quiet so far this season, but how long before the CC opt out debate becomes a huge story?

There’s not much of a debate, he’s going to opt-out because it’s the smart thing to do. It’ll be a huge story after the season once he actually says the magic words, but it shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Everyone knows it’s coming and the Yankees will deal with it then. Nothing else they can do, and there’s no sense worrying about it.

Tyler asks: Which minor leaguers are Rule 5 eligible after this season? Who do you think will be added to the 40-man?

College players drafted in 2008 and high school players drafted in 2007 are the newly eligible players this year (I have no idea about international free agents), so that includes three important players for the Yankees: Austin Romine, D.J. Mitchell, and David Phelps. All three are no-brainers, they have to be protected. I’m not the biggest Mitchell fan, but he definitely has value and there’s no reason to give him away. George Kontos (a 2006 draftee) is probably worth protecting this time around as well.

David Adams is on the fence, but I think he’s worth protecting as long as his recovery from the foot/ankle injury continues to go well. True middle infielders that can hit are exactly the kinds of guys you keep. The interesting case will be Pat Venditte, though I think the Yankees will leave him off the 40-man roster and some team will grab him for a Spring Training look-see.

Johnny asks: Dante Jr. has been insanely hot with the bat lately. However, do you discount his stats because the GCL hardly has any 2011 draftees playing yet? The level of competition right now is way below where it will be in 2-3 weeks right? Or is it safe to get excited about Dante Jr?

The further you get away from the big leagues, the less the stats matter. Baseball history is littered with guys that tore up the GCL but didn’t hit anywhere else (check out Tony Blanco’s GCL numbers). That said, you’d much rather see a kid tear that league up than struggle, just for piece of mind. If Dante Bichette Jr. started his career hitting like, .200/.250/.350 with 75 strikeouts and ten walks in 50 games, then yeah that’s a reason to worry. Strong performance means less that poor performance, if that makes sense.

Full season leagues are the first big test, that’s when you can really begin to pay attention to performance. It’s the first time these kids are playing every single day for months on end, grinding through long bus trips and crummy hotels and nagging injuries. It’s a tough transition and you’d be surprised at how many players can’t handle it. Great GCL numbers are nice to see, but ultimately they shouldn’t change anyone’s opinion. I won’t rank Bichette any higher on my next prospect list because of what he’s done over the last few weeks. The scouting report always comes first.

Albert, CC and crazy, crazy ideas

February 17, 2011 by Benjamin Kabak 83 Comments

2010 Major League Baseball Photo Day — Don't get your hopes up.

The Yankees have a very expensive first baseman, and they don’t plan on getting rid of him soon. On the 23 of December of 2008, the Yanks gave Mark Teixeira an eight-year, $180-million deal with a full no-trade clause, and since then, Teixeira has helped the Yanks win a World Series while missing just 10 regular season games. He had a down year in 2010, but there’s no reason to think he won’t pick it up this year in his age 31 season.

In St. Louis, meanwhile, the Cardinals’ own 31-year-old first baseman is playing out the final year of his contract. Albert Pujols wants to get paid and had set a deadline of yesterday at noon to sign an extension. The Cardinals may or may not have offered him a rather low-ball eight-year offer, and the two sides are heading into the season without a long-term deal in place. They say they won’t negotiate until after the Cardinals’ 2011 campaign is over. While St. Louis needs Albert Pujols far more than he needs them, things could get ugly indeed.

So as the Pujols drama plays out and with the Yanks being the Yankees, everyone and their mothers wants to know if Pujols could come to the Bronx. Of all the crazy speculation, though, the nuttiest comes from Ken Rosenthal. I once laughed at Rosenthal’s proposal that the Phillies, Blue Jays and Mariners engage in some three-team shenanigans over Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but I think it’s safe to say that his latest is well divorced from reality. He wants the Cardinals to trade Pujols for Teixeira.

Warning that his piece is “pure speculation,” he thinks it would help everyone. The Cardinals would get their All Star first baseman, and the Yanks would make a splash to counter the Red Sox’s trading for Adrian Gonzalez. Plus, the Bombers could dole out another ten-year, $300-million deal to someone on the wrong side of 30. Everyone wins! Hooray!

The Internet of course had a field day with it. In a vacuum, swapping out Teixeira for Pujols is a no-brainer (sorry, Mark), but things don’t work in a vacuum. As Fangraphs noted, the trade would be insanely lopsided from a WAR perspective, and Teixeira would have no incentive to waive his no-trade clause. He would be the lesser player tasked with replacing Albert Pujols. If Tino Martinez thought he had it rough in 1996 when he was serving as Don Mattingly’s heir, imagine Teixeira stepping in for one of the — if not the — greatest players of all time. Sounds like a blast.

But rather than indulge in fanciful speculation fit for a fantasy baseball league, turn instead to an excellent piece on the state of baseball free agency by Cardinals fan-extraordinaire Will Leitch. Over at New York Magazine’s The Sports Section, Leitch wrote a piece entitled “Albert Pujols, and Why the Yankees Are the Yankees.” Of the Yanks, he writes:

The Yankees, famously, refuse to negotiate with players who are about to be free agents during the season. They can do this because they are the Yankees. Because they have the most money, they can set the market on any player, and they can wait until all information is available. The Cardinals failed to wrap up Pujols early — the way the Twins did with Joe Mauer, for example — not because they didn’t want to keep him around, but because they couldn’t balance the risk (a $300 million, ten-year contract) with the uncertainty (knowing how many teams would be bidding, knowing how Pujols will play this year, whether he’ll stay healthy, and so on). The Yankees never have to worry about that. At the end of every day, the Yankees can pay more than anybody else can, so they can let the market play out. The Cardinals were trying to avoid that. They failed.

The Yankees refuse to negotiate with their free agents, even the Jeters, even the Posadas, until it’s on their terms. The Cardinals — who have the ninth-highest payroll in baseball — can’t even get their top free agent to talk to them until he has decided he is ready, until it is on his terms. The Cardinals didn’t blow an opportunity today through mismanagement or disrespecting their superstar. They just aren’t the Yankees.

Despite this off-season in which Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees for ever-so-slightly fewer dollars and a unique opportunity to pitch in Philadelphia, the Yankees get their guy because, as Leitch said, they can spend. And that brings us to CC Sabathia. The big lefty will exercise his opt-out to one degree or another this year because it makes financial sense for him to do so. That doesn’t mean he wants to leave the Yankees.

Rather, he wants to use his leverage to get more security on the back end. If the Yankees were willing to go all in for Cliff Lee, they’ll certainly do that for the younger and seemingly more durable Sabathia. The Yankees, with their dollars, will keep their man.

In another world, perhaps, Pujols would be a free agent, and the Yanks would have a spot for him. But that other world exists only in the pages of The Onion. Albert isn’t coming here, Mark Teixeira isn’t going anywhere and neither, ultimately, will CC.

Mailbag: Albert Pujols

January 21, 2011 by Mike 72 Comments

Dave asks: Now that Pujols has given the Cards an ultimatum regarding his contract, can we start imagining him with NYY? Who’s a better 1B – he or Teix? Didn’t he used to play other positions? Couldn’t he handle one of the outfield corners, or perhaps share 3B/DH with A-Rod (keeping both fresher)?

We’ve already gotten a swarm of emails about the possibility of Albert Pujols joining the Yankees in the next year or so, and those emails don’t figure to stop anytime soon. This post is going to serve as our default answer to that question barring any significant changes to the situation, so I suggest bookmarking it.

The idea of Pujols in pinstripes is drool-worthy. He’s the best player in the game and the most devastating hitter on the planet, and he’ll hit the free agent market at essentially age 32 (his birthday was a week or two ago, so at the start of the 2012 season he’ll be 32). He should still have a few seasons of super-elite production ahead of him, and even once he starts to slip, Pujols will still be one of the game’s best. But we’ve seen this movie before.

Three seasons ago a 32-year-old Alex Rodriguez hit the free agent market after opting out of his contract. He was coming off an MVP-winning 2007 season, when he hit 54 homers with a .449 wOBA in 158 games. He owned a .416 wOBA and two MVP awards in his first four years as a Yankee, playing in no fewer than 154 games in each season. That production and his relatively young age led to the mammoth ten-year, $275M contract.

That contract is now the mother of all albatrosses. A-Rod hasn’t played in more than 138 games in any of the three seasons since signing it, and his production, while still fantastic, has slipped down to a .393 wOBA since then, including .363 in 2010. He needed hip surgery barely 18 months after signing the contract, an issue severe enough that it will need to be monitored for at least the next few seasons, if not the rest of his career. With seven-years and no less than $184M left on the contract, the Yankees need to hope that their third baseman avoids injury and remains productive to at least break even on the deal. Getting surplus value is pretty much out of the question now.

This is nothing against Alex, he’s a great player, it just goes to show the risk associated with giving gigantic contracts to 30-somethings. He had played in 154+ games every year from 2001 through 2006, but he’s visited this disabled list in each of the three seasons since, and that doesn’t include all the added rest needed for his hip. It just goes to show that no matter how durable a guy is, things can change quickly once they start to get up there in age.

Pujols is no different, and in fact he’s been battling an elbow issue for the last few years. He finally had surgery to correct it during the 2009-2010 offseason, but it still gave him trouble this past September. He might not get an A-Rod deal, but at the very least he’ll get Mark Teixeira’s contract, and probably more since he’s just straight up better than Tex. Giving out another humongous contract to a guy in his 30’s is pretty much the last thing the Yanks need right now, especially if he’s not a pitcher.

And that’s the other thing too, what happens with Tex if you sign Pujols? You can’t trade him because a) he’s got a full no-trade clause, b) no other team is taking on that contract, and c) eating like, half the money left on it just for the sake of moving him is a terrible idea and a massive waste of resources. I guess you could use one guy at first and DH the other, but you’re then wasting one guy’s defensive skills, which the team is paying for and are excellent. You can’t move Tex back to third (moving A-Rod to DH) because he hasn’t played the position since 2003 and has a grand total of 99.2 big league innings there. Pujols has the elbow problems and has been a full-time first baseman since 2004, so moving him isn’t much of an option either.

I’d love love love to see Pujols in the middle of the Yankee lineup, with Robbie Cano batting ahead of him and A-Rod and Tex behind him, but it’s the definition of overkill. You’re going to compromise roster flexibility well into the future, tying up about $90M annually in THREE players (all corner infielders in their 30’s, too), and all for what amounts to a DH upgrade. I fully expect the Cardinals to re-sign Pujols at some point this calendar year, but even so I can’t imagine the Yankees getting involved. I’m certain his agent will bring them up just to drive up the price, but there’s just no fit. The Yankees can afford it, but that’s doesn’t mean it’s the wisest idea.