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The Year Ahead In the Farm System [2018 Season Preview]

March 27, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A year ago at this time we were all still kinda in awe of what Brian Cashman and the Yankees were able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time. Between trades and development, the Yankees built one of the top farm systems in the game, one with high-end prospects and depth. We were still waiting to see whether that rebuilt farm system translated to success on the field though.

Fast forward to this spring, and the Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance thanks largely to those prospects. Players like Aaron Judge, Chad Green, and Jordan Montgomery graduated to the big leagues last year and became key contributors. Others like Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford were used as trade chips to land impact big leaguers with multiple years of control.

The Yankees were able to turn that highly regarded farm system into an enviable big league core, and, best of all, the farm system still ranks among the best in baseball. Look where the various scouting publications ranked the system this spring:

Baseball America: 2nd (behind the Braves)
Baseball Prospectus: 4th (behind the Padres, Phillies, Braves)
Keith Law: 2nd (behind the Braves)
MLB.com: 2nd (behind the Braves)

That is the good stuff. According to Baseball America, the Dodgers have the second best farm system among 2017 postseason teams. They ranked their system eighth. The Yankees have a top prospect pipeline on par with hard-tankers like the Padres and Braves and White Sox, except the Yankees are not tanking. They contended last year and there is every reason to believe they’ll contend again this year. Let’s preview the year ahead in the minors.

Top Prospects Who Could Help In 2018

Before the Brandon Drury trade and Neil Walker signing, the Yankees brought three top prospect infielders to Spring Training and ostensibly gave them a chance to win the big league second and third base openings. IF Tyler Wade was able to win a big league job anyway. 3B Miguel Andujar and IF Gleyber Torres will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton for the time being. They’ll be up soon enough. Here’s our season preview for Andujar, Torres, and Wade.

Aside from the kid infielders, the top prospect most likely to help the Yankees this summer is RHP Chance Adams, a divisive prospect who doesn’t necessarily receive the greatest reviews from scouts despite stellar minor league numbers. Adams had another strong minor league season last year, throwing 150.1 innings with 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A. Spring Training didn’t go so well (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), but whatever, it happens.

Larry Rothschild recently told Brendan Kuty that Adams’ arm strength wasn’t quite where the Yankees hoped it would be this spring, and hopefully that’s just a “he threw by far the most innings of his career last year and is taking a little longer to get to full strength than expected” thing and not a “he’s out of shape” or “he’s hiding an injury” thing. “He has a pretty good track record, so we’re not too concerned,” said minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell to Kuty.

Either way, Adams will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton, and it stands to reason he will be among the top call-up options when a starter is needed. Domingo German and Luis Cessa have big league time and are on the 40-man roster, but if Adams performs and gets his arm strength to where it needs to be, the Yankees will give him a shot. They’ll go with whoever they believe gives them the best chance to win, and if they think it’s Adams, he’ll get the call.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help In 2018

Never say never, but it seems likely to me LHP Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the system, will spend the year in the minors after being limited to 98 innings by an oblique injury last season. Sheffield showed the goods in Spring Training (mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider) and also showed the warts (lack of command) as well. Still, as a power southpaw with three pitches (he also has a pretty good changeup), Sheffield is rightfully considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. If he helps the Yankees at all in 2018, it’ll be late in the season.

OF Estevan Florial, who some rank as the second best prospect in the system behind Gleyber, almost certainly will not reach the big leagues this season. Florial turned 20 in November and he has played only 19 games at High-A. More High-A time and a midseason promotion to Double-A is in the cards this year. Maybe a late-season stint at Triple-A. Maybe. Florial hit .219/.324/.406 this spring and impressed everyone with his athleticism and raw tools. From Bryan Hoch:

“He’s one of those guys that I’m really excited to see these first couple of weeks, because he’s going to get some opportunities to play,” (Aaron) Boone said. “He’s going to log some at-bats. We just want to get him as comfortable as possible. When we see him do that, even though that [triple] was the first one, it’s not a surprise to us. The talent is real.”

As with Sheffield (command), Florial has a flaw in his game that keeps him from being a truly elite prospect. He has problems making contact. His 31.1% strikeout rate last season was 29th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, and Florial has the most trouble with non-fastballs. Double-A caliber arms gave him fits in the Arizona Fall League. Florial didn’t play a ton of baseball growing up and the Yankees hope he’ll make more contact as he gains experience. We’ll keep track of that in the Prospect Watch this year.

In RHP Dillon Tate, the Yankees have a former high draft pick (fourth overall in 2015) who didn’t quite take to some mechanical issues the Rangers tried to implement, but has since rebuilt prospect stock after being told by the Yankees to go back to whatever worked in college. He was slowed by a shoulder issue last year but he did reach Double-A by the end of the season, so I guess that makes him a call-up candidate this year. I think there might be a few too many names ahead of him on the depth chart. The Yankees are having Tate work on a two-seam fastball at the moment, a pitch that could be a real difference-maker for him.

RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Freicer Perez are two ultra-talented Single-A kids who we’re not going to see this year. (Abreu has been slowed by an appendectomy and will probably start the season on the disabled list anyway.) Perez really broke out last year — he had a 2.12 ERA (3.19 FIP) with 25.3% strikeouts in his final 18 starts and 101.2 innings last summer — and is poised to be the next great Yankees pitching prospect. Abreu battled injury problems last year but has a golden arm. These two are a Big Deal now and they’ll be a Very Big Deal next spring.

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help In 2018

Top prospects get all the attention and understandably so, but turning secondary prospects into regulars is often what separates good teams from great teams. Look what Green and Montgomery did for the Yankees last year. They were nowhere near any top prospect lists, yet both played very important roles for a postseason team.

This season the Yankees have several depth pitching prospects who figure to see MLB time, most notably RHP Domingo German, the presumed sixth starter at the moment. RHP Gio Gallegos, RHP Ben Heller, and RHP Jonathan Holder are all going to get bullpen time at some point. You watch. OF/1B Billy McKinney figures to spend the season as an up-and-down bat. They’re all covered in our depth pitchers and depth position players previews.

IF Thairo Estrada was expected to be in the infield mix before the Drury and Walker trades, and while he always felt like a long shot for a big league job, he was removed from the competition before it even started. Estrada was shot in the hip during a botched robbery in January and he did not play at all this spring. The good news is he has resumed working out and other baseball activities, but Thairo won’t start the regular season on time. He’s on the 40-man roster and we could see him later in the season.

Also on the 40-man: RHP Domingo Acevedo. He spent most of last season at Double-A and that makes him a call-up candidate. That said, Acevedo was shut down late last year with a shoulder problem, and his rehab delayed the start of his offseason throwing problem. He spent Spring Training building arm strength and may not be ready to pitch come minor league Opening Day. Still, Acevedo is on the 40-man, he’s a big power arm, and spot duty in the big leagues could be in the cards this season.

Among non-40-man players, RHP Cody Carroll and RHP Brady Lail stand out as potential bullpen options at some point, a la Caleb Smith and Tyler Webb last year. Those “huh, didn’t think we’d see him this year” guys. Carroll is arguably the top bullpen prospect in the system and he can really bring it, with an upper-90s fastball and a good slider. Lail is moving to the bullpen full-time this year and he could sneak on to the MLB roster at some point. There’s always one or two surprise call-ups each year. I’d bet on Lail being one in 2018.

Breakout Candidates

The Yankees have a deep farm system, especially with lower level arms, and that means they have plenty of breakout candidates. The best of the bunch is RHP Luis Medina, an 18-year-old with a triple digit fastball and two knockout secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). Can he figure out command? Maybe! If he does, Medina will be a no-doubt top 100 prospect at this time next year. Maybe even top 50.

A case can be made RHP Jonathan Loaisiga broke out last season, but he did only throw 32 innings, so I’m including him here. Johnny Lasagna is finally healthy after years of injuries and he goes out to the mound with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and fearlessly pounds the zone. The Yankees like Loaisiga enough that they put him on the 40-man over the winter, and if he stays healthy and pitches a full season, he could rank among the top prospects in the system by the end of the year.

3B Dermis Garcia and OF Canaan Smith are two bat first prospects with power — in Garcia’s case, it’s mammoth power that grades as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale — and plate discipline, so while they have a high bar to clear to be considered top prospects, they have the talent to reach that level, Dermis in particular. SS Hoy Jun Park has tremendous tools and, now that he has a few years of minor league experience under his belt, this could be the season he really starts to take off.

The deep sleepers are RHP Deivi Garcia, a short controlled challenged righty with a hellacious curveball, RHP Juan Then, a just turned 18-year-old righty with pitching know-how well beyond his years, and C Saul Torres, a standout defensive catcher with much more offensive potential than last year’s .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) rookie ball batting line would lead you to believe. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt is due back from Tommy John surgery. He’s not a traditional breakout candidate, but a healthy return will see his prospect stock rise considerably.

Prospects I Am Irrationally Excited About

We all have our personal favorites. Among mine is IF Kyle Holder, a slick-fielding shortstop who might not hit long-term, though he did put up a .355/.400/.458 (154 wRC+) batting line in his final 51 games last season. His glove alone gives him a chance to play in the big leagues. I think there’s enough left-handed contact ability there for him to be a regular on a second division team down the road, and that makes him a likely trade chip for the Yankees.

RHP Trevor Stephen has vicious stuff and may be best suited for a bullpen role long-term. The Yankees are going to use him as a starter for the time being because of course they should. If they ever move him to the bullpen, Stephan could rocket to MLB. Same with RHP Nick Nelson, who didn’t start pitching full-time until turning pro as a fourth round pick in 2016. He has a mid-90s fastball and the type of swing-and-miss curveball that could carry a pitcher a long way.

Other like OF Isiah Gilliam, a switch-hitting outfielder with power, and IF Diego Castillo, a contact-oriented hitter with strong defensive chops, are among my personal favorites. I’m also very interested to see what RHP Matt Sauer does in his first full pro season. He’s probably going to start 2018 back in Extended Spring Training — same with Medina and Then — meaning he won’t pitch in actual games until the short season leagues begin in June, but that’s okay. Still count him among guys I’m looking forward to seeing this year.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. When you have a deep farm system, you have a 40-man roster crunch, and that applies to the Yankees again this year. Last year Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell were traded before having to be added to the 40-man roster. Other fringe 40-man roster guys like Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith, Nick Rumbelow, and Ronald Herrera were traded for prospects years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

Among the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season are Hoy Jun Park, Kyle Holder, Diego Castillo, and Dermis Garcia. I could see the Yankees dangling all of them as trade bait. Guys like Billy McKinney, Gio Gallegos, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and the Domingos (Acevedo and German) may not be long for the 40-man roster. I could see them being moved in Cooper/Rumbelow/Herrera style trades before the end of the season.

The Yankees declared Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, and Florial off-limits in trade talks over the winter — or at least they did for Gerrit Cole — though I suppose the Walker and Drury pickups could’ve changed things. I imagine Andujar, for example, is more expendable than he was three or four months ago. In that case, the best trade chips in the farm system are Clint Frazier (technically no longer a prospect), Adams, Tate, Abreu, and possibly Andujar.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

The Yankees had a top tier farm system last spring and they have a top tier farm system right now, though the composition of the farm system is much different now than it was a year ago. Last spring the system was built around high-end position players close to the big leagues like Judge, Torres, and Frazier. Now the farm system is built around pitching, especially at the lower levels.

Pitchers are inherently more risky than position players, especially lower level pitchers. Pitchers get hurt, they don’t develop that third pitch, so on and so forth. Because of that, the farm system carries considerably more risk now than it did a year ago. And with the anticipated graduations of Torres, Andujar, and Wade, as well as others like Adams and German, plus any trades, the smart money is on the farm system taking a hit over the next 12 months.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. When you have a great farm system, the goal is to turn it into a great Major League team, and the Yankees are in the middle of doing that. Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system first in 2015 and 28th in 2018. Think Theo Epstein and Cubs fans care? Nope. Going from a great system to a bad system because of injuries and poor performance is one thing. Going from a great system to a bad system because all your top prospects became great big leaguers is another. That’s what every team is striving for, and the Yankees are in the process of doing exactly that.

Poll: The 2018 RAB Prospect Watch

March 20, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last year’s Prospect Watch prospect. (Presswire)

Since the debut of RAB eleven years ago, we’ve hosted the annual Prospect Watch in our sidebar, in which we track the progress of a specific prospect throughout the season. The Prospect Watch actually predates RAB, though that’s a conversation for another time. Point is, we pick a prospect, then track his season in the sidebar. People seem to like it, so we keep doing it.

There is the little matter of the so-called Prospect Watch curse. Last year Gleyber Torres was the Prospect Watch prospect and he missed half the season with an elbow injury. The year before it was James Kaprielian, and he missed most of the season with an elbow injury. Of course, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez were both in the Prospect Watch at one point, and they’re super awesome. I don’t believe in curses so the Prospect Watch continues. Prospects get hurt. It happens.

In the past I would make an executive decision and pick the Prospect Watch prospect myself. A few years ago I decided to open it up to a reader vote and that seems to work better, so let’s do that again. I selected six candidates for the 2018 Prospect Watch and, because the Yankees have a pitching heavy farm system, five of the six are pitchers. Here are the six candidates, listed alphabetically and with my top 30 prospects ranking.

RHP Albert Abreu (No. 5)

The Case For Abreu: You could argue Abreu has the best stuff in the farm system. His fastball sits an easy 93-98 mph and his slider, curveball, and changeup all show a lot of promise. Abreu threw 53.1 Single-A innings last season with a 3.37 ERA (3.12 FIP), 27.6% strikeouts, and 8.1% walks. A quick return to High-A Tampa with a midseason promotion to Double-A Trenton is in the cards. Abreu is a candidate to lead the system in strikeouts this year.

The Case Against Abreu: All pitchers are an injury risk and Abreu is riskier than most. He missed lots of time last season — again, he threw only 53.1 innings last year — with elbow and lat problems. Also, Abreu had his appendix taken out early in Spring Training and he has been behind the other pitchers in camp, so there’s a chance he won’t even be ready to pitch come Opening Day. His season debut may be delayed a bit, which is no fun for Prospect Watch purposes.

OF Estevan Florial (No. 4)

The Case For Florial: Florial was one of the top performers in the farm system last year, hitting .298/.372/.479 (145 wRC+) with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 476 plate appearances split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. If you’ve watched him at all this spring, you know everything Florial does is electric. He has lots of power and he runs like the wind. Unfortunately, his range and arm strength won’t show up in the Prospect Watch, but Florial has that stuff too.

The Case Against Florial: Simply put, Florial is a boom or bust prospect. He is loaded with tools, but he struck out in 31.1% of his plate appearances last season — his 15.5% swing-and-miss rate was 69th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances last year — and anytime a player has that much swing-and-miss in his game, he is at risk of prolonged slumps. Especially since he’s only 20. Florial could do something amazing or something awful this year.

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 17)

The Case For Loaisiga: My outside the box pick. The Yankees signed Loaisiga out of a tryout camp two years ago and now he is on the 40-man roster. Great fastball, great curveball, great changeup, lots of strikes. Loaisiga threw 32 minor league innings last season and posted a 1.38 ERA (2.17 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and 2.5% walks last year. In this case, the stats back up the scouting report. Here’s some video of Loaisiga from earlier this month:

The Case Against Loaisiga: Injuries, man. Loaisiga returned from Tommy John surgery just last season and he also dealt with arm problems earlier in his career, which is why the Giants released him in the first place. He’s thrown only 103.2 total innings in parts of five minor league seasons, so, even if he stays healthy in 2018, the Yankees might have to shut him down for workload reasons at some point. Nothing worse than a Prospect Watch that goes dormant weeks before the end of the season.

RHP Freicer Perez (No. 11)

The Case For Perez: Thanks to a 2.84 ERA (3.59 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 8.7% walks in 123.2 Low-A innings, Perez was the breakout pitcher in the farm system last year. He’s a big dude (6-foot-8) who has started to figure out how to repeat his delivery, allowing him to throw more strikes and hold his stuff deeper into games. Perez will sit mid-90s and touch 100 mph, and his hammer curveball is a legitimate put-away pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup. Lots to like here.

The Case Against Perez: I guess that, aside from the inherent injury risk, Perez could become unglued with his delivery and lose the strike zone. That tends to happen with young pitchers this tall. Just a year ago Perez ran a 10.5% walk rate with Short Season Staten Island. He could lose his mechanics and the plate. Walks are an eyesore in the Prospect Watch.

LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 2)

The Case For Sheffield: The overall Spring Training numbers weren’t good (seven runs in 5.1 innings), but Sheffield showed the goods during Grapefruit League play this year. His fastball was anywhere from 94-97 mph and he showed a true wipeout slider. It was hard not to be impressed by the stuff. Sheffield had a 3.12 ERA (4.43 FIP) in 98 Double-A innings last season and he punched out 20.8% of batters faced.

The Case Against Sheffield: Sheffield did miss time with injury last season, though it was his oblique, not his arm, so nothing worth worrying about this year. More than that, Sheffield’s control is not great (8.0% walks last year) and he is surprisingly home run prone. He served up 14 homers in those 98 innings last season, or a 1.3 HR/9. And that was in a pitcher’s park too. The stuff is as good as you’ll see. Sheffield’s results are not there just yet.

RHP Dillon Tate (No. 8)

The Case For Tate: Reports last year indicated Tate’s stuff is back to where it was in college, when the Rangers made him the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft, and based on what I saw in his lone televised Grapefruit League outing a few weeks ago, Tate is indeed back on track. His fastball was consistently mid-90s and both the slider and changeup were impressive. Tate threw 83.1 innings with a 2.81 ERA (3.95 FIP) at High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton last season.

The Case Against Tate: A shoulder issue forced Tate to wait until late-June to make his season debut last year, and that’s never good. Also, Tate’s fastball is more hittable than the velocity would suggest because it is straight, hence the underwhelming 18.4% strikeout rate last season. The Yankees are working with Tate to add a two-seamer, though who knows how that’s going. Heck, the two-seamer could create a new set of problems if Tate can’t control it. The injury risk is greater than normal here and Tate’s fastball is kinda hittable, so there’s your case against.

* * *

Surely you noticed many of the top prospects in the farm system are not Prospect Watch candidates this year, and I have a good reason for that. Gleyber Torres (No. 1 on the top 30), Miguel Andujar (No. 3), Tyler Wade (No. 6), Chance Adams (No. 7), and Domingo Acevedo (No. 13) all figure to see big league time this year, potentially a lot of it. We’ve had Prospect Watch players reach the big leagues before, though I prefer to focus on a minor leaguer, not someone we watch play every day.

Other notable prospects like Luis Medina (No. 9) and Matt Sauer (No. 12) are likely to begin the season back in Extended Spring Training, meaning they might not appear in games until the short season leagues start up in June. Clarke Schmidt (No. 14), last year’s first rounder, is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until midseason. Anyway, the six candidates are the six candidates, so let’s get to the poll. I’ll leave this open until Friday.

Open Thread: March 8th Camp Notes

March 8, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees actually lost a game this afternoon. Rude. The Phillies beat them 7-6. Aaron Hicks had a single and two walks, Brandon Drury had a single and a double, Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton had singles — Stanton’s was a rocket off the wall, one of those “he hit it so hard he held himself to a single” singles — and Sir Didi Gregorius socked a two-run dinger. Austin Romine had a single off the bench. He is now 9-for-13 (.692) this spring. Gotta love it.

On the mound, Luis Severino made his spring debut and looked fantastic, striking out three and allowing an unearned run in 3.1 innings before hitting his pitch limit. Severino was throwing free and easy. Great to see. Justus Sheffield (three runs in 1.2 innings) and Wade LeBlanc (three runs in two innings) conspired to blow a 6-1 lead. Rats. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here’s the latest from Tampa:

Clint Frazier (concussion) rode the stationary bike for 20 minutes, threw, and did rotational exercises to simulate swinging today. “It’s frustrating, but I’m trying not to mess around with this,” he said. Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique) could resume running on Saturday, and it’s possible he will be ready in time for Opening Day. We’ll see. [Erik Boland, Bryan Hoch]
The Yankees announced their first round of roster cuts following today’s game. Cale Coshow, Raynel Espinal, Trevor Lane, Chace Numata, Justus Sheffield, and Dillon Tate were all sent out. “I told him I came in here with high expectations about him, knowing how much our organization values him. He surpassed those,” said Boone about Sheffield. The Yankees still have 56 players in big league camp by my unofficial count. [Coley Harvey]
In case you missed it earlier, Aaron Judge said he probably won’t participate in the Home Run Derby going forward. Sanchez was asked about the Home Run Derby as well, and he said it’s “too early” to know what he’ll do. Stanton said the same thing. “Depends how the season’s going, how the body’s feeling, if I’m an All-Star. All that,” he said. [Boland, Pete Caldera]
Turns out Luis Cessa was scratched from yesterday’s start with a stiff neck. He’s fine now and will start Saturday afternoon. The Yankees will be on the road to take on the Braves tomorrow night. The game will not be televised. Sonny Gray is the scheduled starter. [Boland]

Here is the nightly open thread. If you’re interested, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on YES (10pm ET) and MLB Network (6am ET). MLB Network has the Giants and Mariners live tonight (8:30pm ET), all the local hockey and basketball teams are playing except the Knicks, and there is a ton of college hoops on as well. Talk about those games or anything else here, as long as it’s not religion or politics.

Saturday Links: Judge, Captain’s Camp, Farm System Rankings

February 17, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Position players will report to Spring Training tomorrow and, one week from yesterday, the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game. Can’t come soon enough. Here are some links to check out on the final weekend without Yankees baseball until (hopefully) November.

Judge takes over Captain’s Camp

Now that Derek Jeter has jumped shipped to the Marlins, the Yankees turned to Aaron Judge to lead Captain’s Camp, reports Brendan Kuty. Judge took Jeter’s place at the annual steak dinner in which the prospects get to ask questions and pick the brain of a big leaguer. The second year player has taken on a role as a veteran leader. Neat.

“It’s great looking back on it,” said Judge to Kuty. “The whole thing is, those are my teammates, my future teammates. Got to talk with them, get to know them, and ask about what their experience in the minor leagues has been and tell them about what I went through. It was a fun evening … I’m going to kind of keep it to them. But any way I can give back to future teammates, I’m going to do it.”

Judge one has one year (and two months) of big league experience, but he carries himself like a ten-year veteran, and obviously the Yankees believe he is someone their young players should emulate. And hey, being the reigning Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up sure helps too. Judge has the credentials and the personality. Maybe one day Captain’s Camp will be named after him?

Yankees rank fourth in BP’s farm system rankings

A few days ago the crew at Baseball Prospectus released their annual organizational rankings. The Yankees placed fourth behind the Padres, Phillies, and Braves. Both Baseball America and Keith Law had New York’s system second behind the Braves, for what it’s worth. Anyway, here is the blurb from Baseball Prospectus:

The Yankees drop a bit as they switched to deadline buyers this year—as if slipping on an old pair of comfortable slippers you lost under the bed for a while. They also traded for Giancarlo Stanton, but that barely moved the needle on system flush with young Latin talent. Gleyber Torres is one of the best prospects in baseball and it was only a UCL tear on his non-throwing arm that kept him from graduating (or perhaps being the best prospect in baseball. They only put five names on the Top 101 this year, but Miguel Andujar just missed, and the balance of their top ten would have landed in the next 50 names. There’s substantially more risk in the Luis Medinas and Matt Sauers of the world though.

I was pretty shocked to see the Yankees second on the Baseball America and Keith Law lists. A chunk of their depth is tied up in risky lower level arms, and I figured that’d knock them down a peg, like it seems to have done with the Baseball Prospectus list. Either way, the Yankees traded and graduated a bunch of prospects last year, yet they still have a top tier farm system. That is pretty darn cool.

Several Yankees among top 100 just misses

Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus posted a collection of “just missed” players for their annual top 100 prospect lists. The Yankees landed six players on Baseball America’s top 100 and five players on Baseball Prospectus’ top 101. Here are the others who received consideration:

Baseball America: RHP Domingo Acevedo, SS Thairo Estrada, RHP Luis Medina, OF Everson Pereira, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Dillon Tate
Baseball Prospectus: Acevedo and 3B Miguel Andujar

In the Baseball Prospectus write-up, it notes the gang who put together the top 101 were split on Andujar. Some wanted him on the main list and some wanted him on the outside. Ultimately, those who wanted him outside won out. So it goes. That the Yankees had six players on Baseball America’s top 100 and six others considered for the list is pretty damn amazing.

Minor League Notes: Prospect Rankings, Bollinger, Graham

February 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa one week from tomorrow, which means my annual top 30 Yankees prospects list will be posted this Friday. The whole thing is written. Pretty sure this is the earliest I’ve finished it. I just need to proofread it a few more times and all that. Friday’s the day though. Here are some minor league notes to help pass the time.

Five Yankees on BP’s top 100 prospects list

Another top 100 list was released earlier today. Baseball Prospectus has Braves OF Ronald Acuna as the top prospect in baseball right now. (They didn’t include Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani in their rankings.) Nationals OF Victor Robles is second. Five Yankees make BP’s list:

3. SS Gleyber Torres
26. OF Estevan Florial
51. RHP Chance Adams
57. LHP Justus Sheffield
100. RHP Albert Abreu

Noticeably absent: 3B Miguel Andujar, who ranked in the middle of other top 100 lists these last few weeks. In the chat, Jeffrey Paternostro said he is “just not an Andujar guy. I don’t love the swing or the throwing at third. He keeps making it work though, and I fully admit I may be too stubborn here.” To each his own.

Five Yankees on FanGraphs’ top 100 prospects list

Yet another top 100 list. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen posted their combined top 100 list today and they had Ohtani in the top spot, followed by Acuna and Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. Five Yankees made their FanGraphs top 100 list:

12. SS Gleyber Torres
14. 3B Miguel Andujar
39. LHP Justus Sheffield
59. RHP Albert Abreu
79. OF Estevan Florial

That is the lowest Torres appears on a top 100 list this year and, holy crap, also the highest Andujar appears. No other top 100 list has him higher than 54th. “Andujar has cut down on his swing-and-miss while also lifting the ball more and hitting it with more authority, an obviously rare and desirable combination when you’re already working with a toolsy prospect who was always young for his level,” says the write-up. Love it.

Law ranks top ten Yankees prospects (and more)

Two weeks ago Keith Law released his annual top 100 prospects list and organizational rankings. The Yankees had five top 100 guys plus two more on the “just missed” list, and they ranked second in the farm system rankings behind the Braves. Then, last week, Law posted his team-by-team prospect breakdown (subs. req’d), which includes a top ten list and lots more. His introductory Yankees blurb:

The Yankees have drafted well, they’ve scouted very well internationally, and they’ve kept most of the “right” guys in trades so far, such that their system is No. 2 in all of MLB even after promotions and a few deals. Their Trenton (Double-A) and Scranton Wilkes-Barre (Triple-A) affiliates should be extremely fun to watch this year.

Within the write-up are brief scouting reports on the Yankees’ non-top 100 lists. Law goes beyond the top ten with the Yankees and ranks 21 prospects total:

1. SS Gleyber Torres
2. LHP Justus Sheffield
3. 3B Miguel Andujar
4. RHP Freicer Perez
5. RHP Albert Abreu
6. OF Estevan Florial
7. RHP Domingo Acevedo

15. RHP Taylor Widener
16. RHP Trevor Stephan
17. SS Oswaldo Cabrera
18. 2B Nick Solak
19. RHP Cody Carroll
20. 3B Dermis Garcia
21. OF Jake Cave

8. RHP Dillon Tate
9. RHP Chance Adams
10. RHP Luis Medina
11. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
12. RHP Clarke Schmidt
13. SS Thairo Estrada
14. RHP Matt Sauer

That is an awful lot of right-handed pitchers. Law also mentions C Saul Torres, OF Billy McKinney, RHP Ben Heller, RHP Domingo German, and SS Hoy Jun Park in the write-up, and labels Medina as his sleeper. “Luis Medina is incredibly exciting, just a long way off, but he could be the next great starter prospect in what looks like a line of them from the majors on down,” he writes.

Four Yankees on ZiPS top 100 prospects

Over at ESPN, Dan Szymborski used ZiPS to put together a data-driven top 100 prospects list. For the most part the ZiPS list agrees with the scouting-based top 100 lists. Players are generally ranked in the same spot, with a few notable exceptions. Acuna tops this list as well. Four Yankees made the ZiPS top 100:

6. SS Gleyber Torres
41. RHP Chance Adams
51. OF Estevan Florial
79. 3B Miguel Andujar

LHP Justus Sheffield doesn’t make the list, and in the write-up, it is said “if he were projected to pitch in a less homer-friendly stadium than Yankee Stadium, Sheffield moves back into the top 100. In fact, as a Tampa Bay Ray he would get up to No. 68.” So there you go. Blame the ballpark for the Yankees not having a fifth ZiPS top 100 prospect.

Yankees sign Bollinger, release Graham

The Yankees have signed well-traveled LHP Ryan Bollinger to a minor league contract, it was announced during an Australian Baseball League broadcast. Bollinger, 26, was drafted by the Phillies in the 47th round of the 2009 draft, but did not sign. He spent 2010 in an independent league, 2011-13 in the White Sox system, 2014-16 in independent leagues, 2017 in Germany, and this offseason in Australia. He’s made nine starts with the Brisbane Bandits and thrown 54.1 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a 75/12 K/BB this winter. Would be something if this guy made it, huh?

In other transaction news, the Yankees have released RHP J.R. Graham, reports Matt Eddy. Graham came over from the Twins in a cash trade in May 2016, managed to spend the rest of the season on the 40-man roster, then was outrighted last year. The 28-year-old allowed 19 runs in 20.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton last season before going down with an injury in June. The Yankees have so many bullpen arms for Double-A and Triple-A in the system. It would’ve been tough to find room for Graham.

Misc. Notes: Medina, Double-A Trenton

To other quick notes to pass along:

Baseball America (subs. req’d) tabbed RHP Luis Medina as one of nine breakout prospects for 2018. “The Yankees’ system is full of powerful, high-end arms, and Medina might have the highest ceiling of them all … Medina has an excellent chance to find himself in next year’s Top 100 Prospects,” says the write-up.
The Trenton Thunder are rebranding themselves as the Trenton Pork Roll. For real. The Associates Press has the story. It’s for Friday nights only this season, starting May 18th. The team will wear special jerseys and “sell pork roll sandwiches and pork roll-themed merchandise” at the ballpark.

Pork roll-themed merchandise? Pork roll-themed merchandise.

Florial, Sheffield, Adams among 2018 Spring Training invitees

February 2, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Tampa in one week and five days, and earlier this morning, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster Spring Training invitees. The list of 20 non-roster players includes some of the team’s best prospects. Here’s the list:

PITCHERS (11)
RHP Chance Adams
RHP Cody Carroll
RHP Cale Coshow
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP J.P. Feyereisen
RHP David Hale
RHP Brady Lail
LHP Wade LeBlanc
LHP Justus Sheffield
RHP Dillon Tate
RHP Taylor Widener

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Erik Kratz
Chace Numata
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (4)
Danny Espinosa
Kyle Holder
Jace Peterson
Nick Solak

OUTFIELDERS (1)
Estevan Florial

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes top prospects like Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and Thairo Estrada. Ditto the no longer prospect eligible Clint Frazier. The 40-man roster is full, so the Yankees will have 60 players in camp total.

Hale, Kratz, Espinosa, and Peterson all signed minor league contracts in recent weeks. Everyone else is a product of the farm system. The only real surprise is Espinal, a 26-year-old righty who had an unreal minor league season a year ago, throwing 74.1 relief innings with a 1.09 ERA (2.23 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He topped out at Double-A Trenton. Seems like Espinal impressed enough to get an invite to camp. Good for him.

Assuming everyone stays healthy and there are no surprise trades, the Yankees have three Opening Day roster spots available: second base, third base, and last bullpen spot. I imagine the out of options Chasen Shreve has a leg up on the final bullpen spot. Torres, Andujar, Estrada, Espinosa, Peterson, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade are the primary competitors for the second and third base jobs.

When I put together my non-roster players preview a few weeks ago, I came up with 20 names. Espinal, Widener, and Coshow were the only actual non-roster players I missed. They take the place of Stephen Tarpley, James Reeves, and mystery first baseman yet to be signed on my projected non-roster list. Not too shabby on my part.

Sorting out the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2018

January 22, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa three weeks from tomorrow, and at some point soon, likely within the next two weeks, the Yankees will announce their 2018 Spring Training invitees. These are non-40-man roster players who get a chance to come to big league camp to strut their stuff. Some non-roster invitees are top prospects, some are middling prospects, and some are veteran journeymen trying to hang on.

Generally speaking, teams bring 20-25 non-roster players to Spring Training each year. Last year the Yankees initially invited 23 non-roster players before adding a few more within the first few days of camp. It was a World Baseball Classic year, so they needed extra bodies around while guys were away playing for their country. This is a normal year though, so 20-25 non-roster players. That sounds about right.

The Yankees still have a strong farm system despite the recent trades and graduations, and many of their top prospects are already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll be in camp automatically. Four of MLB.com’s top seven Yankees prospects are on the 40-man, so yeah. Spring Training is a great time to prospect watch. We’ll get a chance to see pretty much all the team’s best prospects at some point, 40-man roster or otherwise.

So, with Spring Training inching closer and non-roster invitees soon to be announced, now is a good time to preview the non-40-man roster players the Yankees could bring to camp this year. Last year I predicted 24 non-roster players and 20 of the 24 actually got the call, so go me. Hopefully I’ll have a similar success rate this year. Anyway, let’s get to the potential non-roster players.

Catchers

Every team brings lots of catchers to Spring Training each year because hey, who is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions? That’s really all there is to it. There are lots of pitchers in camp who need regular work to get up to speed, and teams can’t overload three or four catchers early in camp. Imagine making Gary Sanchez squat four hours a day to catch bullpens before games even start? Nope. Not gonna happen. The Yankees will again bring plenty of non-roster catchers to camp.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Erik Kratz, Chace Numata, Jorge Saez. Kratz re-signed on a minor league deal a few weeks ago and as a big league veteran who spent September with the Yankees and traveled with the team in the postseason, it’s safe to assume he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player. Diaz and Saez are organizational depth catchers who were in camp last year. (Diaz re-signed as a minor league free agent earlier this winter.) The Yankees picked up Numata a few weeks ago and given the fact he has Double-A experience, it makes sense that he’d get the call for Spring Training. Sanchez, Austin Romine, and Kyle Higashioka are on the 40-man, making it seven catchers total for Spring Training.

Infielders

The infield mix this spring should be pretty interesting. The Yankees have openings at second and third bases, and while youngsters like Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar may be the favorites for those jobs, I have to think the team will cover their bases and bring in plenty of options. Torres, Andujar, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, and Ronald Torreyes are all on the 40-man already. Those are your top five second/third base candidates.

On the prospect front, Nick Solak strikes me as a logical non-roster player given his status as a recent high draft pick (second round in 2016) and success at Double-A last season (.286/.344/.429 for a 112 wRC+), even though it came in a 30-game cameo. My hunch is Kyle Holder will get some non-roster time as well. He’s another recent high draft pick (supplemental first round in 2015) who had a good-ish year in 2017. The Yankees like him enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. I think Holder gets the invite as basically the last infielder and is among the first cuts.

Younger lower level infield prospects like Hoy Jun Park, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, and Oswaldo Cabrera aren’t non-roster material. Big league camp isn’t the appropriate place for them at this point in their careers. The Yankees will, however, bring another first baseman to camp. Greg Bird and Tyler Austin are the only 40-man players at the position now. The Yankees tried to re-sign Ji-Man Choi, who recently signed with the Brewers. I imagine they’ll target another Triple-A first baseman. Looking at the list of free agents … maybe Tyler Moore? We’ll see.

I also expect the Yankees to bring in another veteran infielder on a minor league deal. They’ve already signed Jace Peterson, but remember how many infield spots they have to fill. There’s second, third, and the backup spot at the MLB level. Then there’s second, third, short, and the backup spot in Triple-A. That’s seven infielders. Right now the Yankees have Torres, Andujar, Wade, Estrada, Torreyes, and Peterson for six of those seven spots. So yeah, another minor league contract infielder is coming.

My Prediction: Holder, Solak, Peterson, an infielder yet to be signed, and a first baseman yet to be signed. If the Yankees don’t sign a first baseman — that would really surprise me, but I suppose it’s not impossible — Ryan McBroom would be the third Spring Training first baseman almost by default. Billy McKinney, who is on the 40-man and started playing first in the Arizona Fall League, also figures to see time at the position.

Outfielders

Last year the Yankees invited two non-roster outfielders to camp: Clint Frazier and Dustin Fowler. Frazier, assuming he isn’t traded between now and reporting date, is on the 40-man and will be in camp automatically. Fowler is with the A’s. The Yankees are overloaded with outfielders at the moment, so they have more than enough bodies to cover all those innings during Grapefruit League play.

Now, that said, the Yankees tend to bring their very best prospects to camp each season, which means Estevan Florial is a good bet to receive a non-roster invite. He went to the Futures Game last year, finished the season with a quick Double-A cameo, and went to the Arizona Fall League. And he is one of the 100 or so best prospects in baseball. Even though he turned only 20 in November, Florial is sufficiently top prospecty enough for a non-roster invite at this point of his career.

My Prediction: Florial. That’s it. Other outfield prospects like Isiah Gilliam, Rashad Crawford, and Alex Palma are a no. Keep in mind the Yankees have nine outfielders on the 40-man at the moment: Frazier, McKinney, Jabari Blash, Jake Cave, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Peterson and Wade can also play the outfield. The Yankees are plenty covered.

Right-handers

The Yankees have more high-end young pitching in the farm system than at any point in the last 10-15 years. One small problem: Most of it is in the low minors. Teenagers like Matt Sauer, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, and Deivi Garcia aren’t coming to big league camp. They don’t belong there. They’re not ready for it. Even the Single-A guys in their early-20s like Freicer Perez and Taylor Widener won’t get invited. It’s not their time. Clarke Schmidt, last year’s first round pick, is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he won’t get a non-roster invite. There’s no point.

Even ruling out the generally inexperienced lower level guys, the Yankees have no shortage of quality right-handed pitching prospects to invite to camp. Chief among them: Chance Adams and Dillon Tate. Adams was in camp last season and could be the first guy called up when a sixth starter is needed this season, so of course he’s coming to camp. Tate was not a non-roster guy last year, but now that he has some Double-A time under his belt, it stands to reason he’ll get the invite.

On the bullpen side, I think J.P. Feyereisen will return to big league camp this spring — he was in camp last year — even though he didn’t have a great 2017 season and was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s someone who could find himself in the big leagues rather quickly if he starts the season well and the Yankees have a need. The Yankees will want the new coaching staff to get to know him. Same with Cody Carroll, last year’s breakout relief prospect, who finished the season in Double-A and dominated in the Arizona Fall League.

My Prediction: Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Tate, Brady Lail, and a minor league contract guy yet to be signed. I get the feeling a depth arm signing is coming. As for Lail, he was a non-roster player each of the last two years, so the Yankees like him. Maybe they don’t like him as much now after a tough Triple-A season last year (5.17 ERA and 4.76 FIP), but I’m going to play it safe and say he gets another invite. There are always innings to be soaked up. Reminder: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all on the 40-man roster. They’ll be in camp. I’m looking forward to seeing Johnny Lasagna. Moreso than another other non-40-man prospect this spring.

Left-handers

Realistically, there’s only one worthwhile left-handed pitching prospect in the organization: Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is the Yankees’ top pitching prospect overall and he was in camp as a non-roster player last year, so of course he’ll be back this year. He made only two appearances totaling 3.2 innings last spring. I’d bet on a little more action this time around.

James Reeves and Stephen Tarpley are the two other non-40-man southpaws worth a mention. Reeves was actually in camp as a non-roster player last spring, but he suffered an elbow injury early on and didn’t pitch. Once healthy, he had a 1.96 ERA (2.18 FIP) with 26.6% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in 46 innings, and he reached Double-A. Reeves has a classic low arm slot left-on-left matchup profile …

… the kind of profile that seems to be dying out around baseball, but the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp last spring, and after he season he just had, I expect him to be back in big league camp this year. As for Tarpley, he had an unreal 2017 season, throwing 41 innings with a 0.88 ERA (2.85 FIP) and a strong strikeout rate (26.9%) but a not-so-strong walk rate (11.5%). The numbers are good, but Tarpley went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft last month, and teams usually gobble up any left-hander they think has a chance to be useful. Hmmm.

My Prediction: Sheffield, Reeves, Tarpley, and Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc is on a minor league contract with an invite to camp, so he’ll be there. I think Tarpley gets an invite because the Yankees are short on 40-man roster lefties — the only southpaws on the 40-man are Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, and Chasen Shreve — and clubs generally like to bring in plenty of lefties just to take inventory. See who could be an option at some point, you know?

* * *

Putting it all together, we come away with 20 non-roster players. Here is the breakdown:

Catchers (4): Diaz, Kratz, Numata, Saez
Infielders (5): Holder, Solak, Peterson, mystery infielder, mystery first baseman
Outfielders (1): Florial
Right-handers (6): Adams, Carroll, Feyereisen, Lail, Tate, mystery minor league signing
Left-handers (4): Reeves, Sheffield, Tarpley, LeBlanc

That’s probably not enough players. Last year the Yankees had 23 non-roster players initially before adding a few others during the first days of camp. They had 26 non-roster players in camp in both 2015 and 2016. My total of 20 potential non-roster players is light. There will be a few more players in camp.

Like I said, the Yankees are almost certainly not done signing journeymen like Kratz, Peterson, and LeBlanc to minor league deals. The Yankees had five veterans (Choi, Jason Gurka, Ruben Tejada, Donovan Solano, Pete Kozma) on minor league deals in camp last spring, for reference. A few more signings are coming and will get the non-roster list over 20 names.

Also, it’s entirely possible the Yankees will be more open to bringing lower level prospects to camp this spring. Maybe they let Donny Sands catch some bullpens, or give Park a taste of big league life, or let someone like Perez or Widener air it out for a few innings to showcase them as trade chips. Those 20 names above are the core non-roster players. A few minor minor league signings and a surprise prospect or two (like Daniel Camarena last year) figure to round out this year’s crop of invitees.