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Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

March 24, 2019 by Mike

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
~~UTIL Tyler Wade~~ OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
~~RHP Luis Cessa~~ RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
~~RHP Domingo German~~ RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

James Paxton’s first year in pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

March 12, 2019 by Derek Albin

James Paxton, also known as The Big Maple, was the Yankees biggest acquisition following the 2018 campaign. The tall southpaw came over from the Mariners, where he grew into their number one starter as Felix Hernandez declined. Paxton has made a good early impression in camp, allowing just one run in his first three starts. Despite being the prize of the team’s offseason, there seemingly hasn’t been much hubbub about him since pitchers and catchers reported. And that’s not a bad thing, rather, it seems like he’s simply put his head down and gone to work. Still, the spotlight will be on the 30-year-old once the regular season begins, especially while Luis Severino is unavailable.

The de facto ace

The Yankees already had an ace — Severino — before they acquired Paxton. Whether you want to call him and Severino 1A and 1B, or declare Paxton as a number two, one thing is for sure: he’s the ace as long as Severino’s out. Of course, an ace is just a moniker that gets thrown around. There was always going to be plenty of pressure on Paxton to perform like a top-shelf starter this season, but now with Severino’s return in question, The Big Maple’s margin for error has shrunk.

Masahiro Tanaka may have gotten the opening day nod in place of Severino, but that doesn’t minimize the importance of Paxton’s performance out of the gate. It sounds like the Yankees and Severino dodged a bullet, meaning that he could be back in mid-to-late April, but those games still matter. The rest of the rotation will need to pick up the slack and Paxton will be a major player. Leading a pitching staff is nothing new for Paxton, of course. He’s been that guy for Seattle in recent years. He should be up to the task.

Can he stay healthy?

Paxton has become quite familiar with the injured list during his major league career:

4/9/14 – 8/27/14: Strained left latissimus dorsi
5/29/15 – 9/13/15: Strained tendon in left middle finger
8/16/16 – 8/25/16: Left elbow contusion
5/5/17 – 5/31/17: Left forearm strain
8/11/17 – 9/15/17: Strained left pectoral muscle
7/13/18 – 7/30/18: Lower back inflammation
8/15/18 – 9/1/18: Left forearm contusion

It’s daunting to know that Paxton’s been on the shelf seven times since he reached the majors, but it’s worth noting that a couple of these injuries were merely bad luck. The elbow and forearm contusions were the result of line drives that struck him. The other maladies are a cause for concern, but on the bright side, only his forearm strain in May of 2017 is alarming. It’s been nearly two year since that injury, and fortunately, nothing else has been arm related.

We already know that the best predictor of future injury are past injuries. Unfortunately, that’s not good news for Paxton. Nonetheless, his workload has been trending in a positive direction over the past three seasons, culminating in a career high 160.1 innings last year. Chances are that the southpaw will hit the shelf at some point this season, but hopefully it’s just a short-term stint.

Pitching in a new home ballpark

I wrote about Paxton’s transition from Seattle to the Bronx about a month ago. His old home was known for it’s tilt toward pitchers, whereas his new digs is homer-friendly. Up until last season, Paxton did an excellent job preventing home runs. After running very low HR/9 numbers, he spiked to 1.29 in 2018. If that’s his true talent level with regard to home run prevention, that means another increase could be in store in pinstripes.

I’m not going to do a rewrite of my previous post here, but the point is that it will be something to watch for. Hopefully, it turns out that last year was more of a fluke driven by an inflated home run to fly ball ratio. If that’s the case, Paxton should pitch brilliantly. If not, it’s not like he’ll be useless. He still excels in many other ways that will allow him to succeed.

Will the Yankees leave him alone?

Last week, Sonny Gray made some waves about the Yankees’ pitching philosophy. In short: Gray was not pleased about the emphasis the team put on throwing breaking balls. He pretty much put the blame on the Yankees for his struggles during his tenure in the Bronx. Even though things didn’t work out with Gray, there’s a reason the Yankees have implemented an anti-fastball philosophy: it generally works. If Gray taught the team anything, it’s that a one size fits all approach probably doesn’t work, despite Gray’s underlying numbers making his breaking pitches look great.

We shouldn’t have to worry about the team making any drastic tweaks to Paxton’s style. He throws his fastball and cutter more than three-quarters of the time, for good reason. Not only has it proven very effective for him, but his curveball doesn’t look like something with significant potential. It’s not that it’s a bad pitch, but rather, that it doesn’t appear to have too much upside by throwing it more often. It’s in the third percentile, or near the very bottom, of the league in terms of spin rate.

The team will certainly look for ways to help Paxton improve, but there isn’t any reason to think it’ll be via the anti-fastball approach. It could be something to help with command, for instance.

Projections

PECOTA: 156 innings, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 DRA, 3.6 WARP

ZiPS: 147.1 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.6 WAR

Steamer: 172 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR

The consensus is that Paxton will be very good this year, which comes as no shock. Playing time is where these systems differ. Steamer is the closest to a full year’s work, but clearly, all systems expect some missed time.

Would you sign up for a mid-3 ERA like these systems project? Paxton authored a 3.76 ERA last season, though he’s also just a year removed from a 2.98 ERA. That’s more like the kind of number we’re all dreaming of. That’s more or less the difference between an ace and a solid number two or three starter. Any of those outcomes would be just fine, but having another frontline starter would be ideal (obviously).

Final Thoughts

I’m really excited to watch Paxton this year. I think in past years, I would have been a bit more worried about acquiring someone like him because of his injury history. Would it be great to have a staff of 200 innings workhorses? Of course. But baseball has changed, for better or worse, over the last decade or so and there simply aren’t a bunch of a 200 inning pitchers lying in wait anymore. Paxton has the ability to be one of the league’s best starters on a per inning basis, and he certainly appears capable of giving 150 stellar innings this year. If he can do that and pitch well in the postseason, no one will care if he doesn’t make 32 or 33 regular season starts.

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

March 7, 2019 by Derek Albin

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

Four ways the 2019 Yankees could be better than the 2018 Yankees

February 13, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Tampa and the long journey that is the 2019 Yankees season is underway. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game will be played one week from Saturday. Soon the beautiful monotony of Spring Training baseball will set in and we’ll all eagerly await the regular season. I love this time of year.

The Yankees, despite not signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, had one of the most active offseasons in baseball, one that saw them sign five notable free agents and make one significant trade. Believe me, the Harper and Machado thing irritates me as much as anyone, but you can count on one hand the number of the teams who have done as much as the Yankees this winter.

Have the Yankees done enough to close the gap on the Red Sox? I think so. You’re welcome to feel differently. The Yankees won 100 games last season and that’s an awful lot. It’s not often teams win 100 games in back-to-back seasons (only the 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals have done it within the last 15 years), but, with a talented roster, the Yankees have a chance to do it. Would be cool.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is as good a time as any to take stock of the 2019 Yankees, and discuss why we should expect the 2019 Yankees to be better than the 2018 Yankees. The 2018 Yankees were really good! I see four reasons why the 2019 Yankees could be even better. Here are the four in no particular order.

Healthy Judge and Sanchez

For all intents and purposes, the 2018 Yankees played their final 61 regular season games without Aaron Judge. His wrist was broken by an errant pitch on July 26th, in the 101st game of the year, and he did not return until the team’s 147th game on September 14th. And, when he did return, he stunk. Judge went 9-for-47 (.220) with two doubles and one homer (.341 SLG) in 13 regular season games following the wrist injury.

Gary Sanchez was not good overall last season and apparently he wasn’t healthy either. His shoulder bothered him enough that he needed offseason surgery, and of course he spent roughly two months on the disabled list with groin trouble. It would be easy to blame the injuries for Gary’s down season. I’m sure they played some role in his poor year, particularly the shoulder, but there were some other issues at play as well.

The Yankees can go into this season reasonably expecting Judge and Sanchez to be healthy. Judge’s injury was a fluke and he showed in the postseason the wrist was strong. Sanchez’s shoulder has been repaired and he is already hitting in the cage and catching bullpens, so he’s on track for the regular season. The Yankees will ease him into Grapefruit League games because there’s no reason to push it.

Injuries happen and Judge and Sanchez could miss time again this year. That’s baseball. Neither has a chronic issue that dogs them year after year though — this isn’t Greg Bird with multiple years of ankle problems, you know? — and I think it’s reasonable to assume good health going into 2019. In this case, that means 90 or so more man games from Judge and Sanchez this year than last year.

Full seasons of Happ and Britton

At this time last year we were talking about how having full seasons of Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle would help the 2018 Yankees be better than the 2017 Yankees, so yeah, this game can humble you quick (one outta three ain’t bad, right?). The logic is sound though. They had this good player for half the season last year and now they’ll have him for a full season this year.

I do worry a bit about Happ’s declining fastball spin rate because he relies so heavily on his fastball, but he was also rock steady following the trade last year, and he is essentially replacing the revolving door of fifth starters. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams combined to allow 116 runs in 30 starts and 136.2 innings last year. They averaged 3.9 runs and 4.6 innings per start for 30 starts. I kid you not.

Happ has made at least 25 starts every year since 2014 and he’s posted a (much) better than average park adjusted ERA every year since 2015. Even at age 36, I feel like Happ is a safe bet to make 25 or so league average starts this year. Given who he’s replacing, that’s a big upgrade. With Gray, we saw some warning signs late in 2017, when he lost the plate and seemed overwhelmed. That wasn’t the case with Happ last year. He came over at the deadline and fit right in.

Britton got better and better as he got away from his Achilles surgery last year and now he’ll have a healthy and normal Spring Training after a healthy and normal offseason. “I went home (after the ALDS), took a day off and started working out the next day and I started throwing a few weeks earlier than I normally do … I just wanted to get rid of some bad habits I (developed after the injury) last year and get ready to go for wherever I was gonna play,” said Britton to Dan Martin the other day.

Full seasons of Gray and Kahnle didn’t help the Yankees last season, but Happ and Britton are more Robertson than Gray and Kahnle given their track records, are they not? Gray had a few moments that made you wonder what was up in 2017. Kahnle never found a set role before his monster postseason. Happ and Britton came over last year and never really missed a beat. They transitioned seamlessly and having them for six months rather than two months is significant.

Paxton replaces Gray

Gray was supposed to be the upside starter. The guy with multiple years of cheap team control who had flashed ace ability in the past. The Yankees hoped to bring it out of him permanently and the opposite happened. He was a disaster last season. James Paxton is cut from a similar cloth in that he’s flashed ace ability over the years and the Yankees are hoping he’ll pitch at the level consistently.

Paxton misses more bats than Gray ever did — Paxton had a 32.3% strikeout rate last year whereas Sonny’s full season high is his 22.6% strikeout rate in 2017 — and he’s been better the last two years than Gray was in his two years prior to the trade. As for the “he can’t handle New York thing,” I don’t know what to tell you other than James Paxton is not Sonny Gray. They’re different people. One has no impact on the other.

What we do know is Paxton is better able to miss bats and limit hard contact than Gray. We know that because he’s done it the last few years:

Paxton in 2018: 32.3 K% and .284 xwOBA
Gray in 2018: 21.1 K% and .316 xwOBA

Paxton from 2016-18: 28.2 K% and .276 xwOBA
Gray from 2016-18: 20.8 K% and .320 xwOBA

I was a big Sonny Gray fan and I was thrilled when the Yankees made the trade in 2017. I feel better about Paxton now than I did Gray then because his strikeout and contact management tendencies are better. We know that, despite all his natural talent, Sonny was not working out for the Yankees. He was terrible. Paxton is not guaranteed to succeed just because he’s not Gray, but I feel really good about what he’s bringing to the table. The potential upgrade is enormous.

Stanton is entering Year Two

Over the years we have seen more than a few players join the Yankees and struggle in their first year with the team, only to rebound in year two. Struggle might be too harsh here, but that first year in pinstripes wasn’t smooth sailing. Here are some recent examples, with an emphasis on big name middle of the order bats (wRC+ and WAR):

	Year before NYY	Year 1 with NYY	Year 2 with NYY
Carlos Beltran	131 and +2.7	97 and -0.5	119 and +1.7
Jason Giambi	193 and +9.2	175 and +6.6	149 and +5.0
Brian McCann	122 and +2.8	94 and +2.3	106 and +2.9
Alex Rodriguez	151 and +9.2	131 and +6.6	174 and +9.1
Gary Sheffield	163 and +7.3	141 and +3.8	137 and +2.4
Mark Teixeira	152 and +6.9	142 and +5.1	128 and +3.4

Giambi, Sheffield, and Teixeira all hit the ground running in year one. Beltran and A-Rod in particular were quite a bit better in their second season with the Yankees though, and McCann as well. Even Hideki Matsui went from a 109 wRC and +0.2 WAR in year one as a Yankee to a 140 wRC+ and +3.0 WAR in year two. That first season in New York can be a slog.

Giancarlo Stanton is now entering year two as a Yankee. All those new team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, new league, new ballpark feelings go away. Maybe they don’t go away, necessarily, but everything is more familiar now. Baseball players are creatures of habit and Stanton went from a largely irrelevant franchise to the center of the baseball universe last year. That had to be a tough adjustment. Now he knows what to expect.

I don’t know about you but I am fully expecting Giancarlo to have a big 2019 season. He wasn’t bad last year by any means — most players would kill to have .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 homers and +4.2 WAR be considered a down year — but Giancarlo went into 2018 with a career .268/.360/.554 (144 wRC+) batting line, so we know there’s more in there. Will he ever hit 59 homers again? Probably not. That is a lot of homers. Stanton turned only 29 in November though. He’s right smack in the prime of his career and I expect a big second season in New York.

* * *

Keep in mind that the Yankees are built around a strong young core, and when you have players this young and this talented, the potential for natural improvement is awfully exciting. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres with a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking them could be even more productive this year. Maybe Luke Voit really can do that across a full season. Luis Severino is still only 24! That second half last season could be a valuable learning experience.

To me, the biggest difference between the 2019 Yankees and the 2018 Yankees is replacing Gray and the fifth starter revolving door with Paxton and Happ. Those stand out as two significant upgrades. Healthy Judge and healthy Sanchez will undoubtedly help as well, ditto a full season of Britton, and Stanton without that first year adjustment period. It’s difficult to improve on a 100-win team. With Paxton and Happ, the Yankees have done it, and there are reasons to believe several incumbent players are poised for better seasons as well.

Examining James Paxton’s home run spike

February 12, 2019 by Derek Albin

At least Paxton won’t have to face Judge anymore. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Leaving ~~Safeco Field~~ T-Mobile Park (good luck getting used to that) to call the Bronx home will be a new challenge for James Paxton. Seattle is not an easy place to hit homers, much unlike Yankee Stadium. This is somewhat worrisome because Paxton had some issues with the long ball last season. Yet, home run prevention was once one of the southpaw’s strengths. He allowed only 0.7 homers per nine innings leading up to 2018, but suddenly permitted 1.3 per nine in 2018. Was it a blip? Hopefully. Maybe last year was just “one of those years”.

Even if he had some misfortune last season, Paxton inevitably will allow more homers as a Yankee than as a Mariner. He’s already gotten a taste of what Yankee Stadium can do to pitchers:

Pretty easy to see why. That was from his only start ever at Yankee Stadium. Miguel Andujar’s homer was not clobbered (94.8 MPH exit velocity) but it landed over the fence, 339 feet away. Paxton sure looked befuddled. That dinger was one of two Paxton gave up that game, the other to Aaron Judge.

Those short porch specials are going to happen and they be part of the reason he’ll allow homers in pinstripes. It’s just a question of which Paxton will experience the increase: the pre-2018 version, his 2018 self, or something in the middle? If it’s the pre-2018 version, we might only be talking about 14 or 15 homers allowed all year, which is still great. If it’s a jump over what happened in 2018, he could allow 26 or 27, which is a lot.

A fun thing to do is to look at an overlay of the line drives and fly balls Paxton allowed last season on an over Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. This might look scary, given how many of the non-dark red dots are over the wall in the Bronx. Not to fear though, it’d be silly to count those up an assume that’s going to be his increase over last year. After all, he’s not going to make all (hopefully) 30-plus starts at home. It’s an interesting chart to look at, and easy to understand, but we have to look deeper to figure out why the lefty gave up so many more homers in 2018.

Batters hit more fly balls against Paxton than ever in 2018, increasing from 32.7% to 41.1% year-over-year. That on it’s own will lead to more home runs. More fly balls are more opportunities for dingers. Certainly that helps us understand why he went from nine to 23 home runs allowed, but there’s more to it.

It’s not surprising that he gave up more fly balls because Paxton increased the elevation of his pitches last season. What is surprising is the jump in home runs allowed per fly ball (HR/FB rate). Paxton always fared better at homer suppression than the rest of the league up until last season, with the exception of 2013. Let’s just ignore that first season because he only tossed 24 innings.

Year	Paxton	League
2013	12.5%	10.5%
2014	6.4%	9.5%
2015	11.1%	11.4%
2016	8.2%	12.8%
2017	7.8%	13.7%
2018	14.4%	12.7%

To this in perspective, if Paxton maintained his 7.8% HR/FB ratio from 2017 in 2018, he’d have allowed a dozen dingers, a small increase from nine in 2017. In an overly simplistic way, that essentially attributes three home runs to the increase in fly ball rate. How do we make up the gap for the other eleven? Obviously, the higher rate of homers per fly ball is the big culprit. That leaves us to figure out why that ratio spiked.

It makes sense to hone in on his fastball and cutter to investigate his home run woes. He throws those pitches about 75 percent of the time and rarely allows homers on anything else. I particularly wanted to see how his HR/FB rate changed based on pitch location, so I pulled all of Paxton’s balls in play over the last two seasons from Baseball Savant. Using Z location, which measures the vertical placement of any pitch, I binned all of Paxton’s batted balls by height. For reference, the typical hitter’s strike zone bottoms out at approximately 1.3 feet from the ground and peaks at 3.3 feet from the ground. All but two of Paxton’s homers allowed on fastballs since 2017 were given up in the 1.75 to 3 range, so I focused there.

After not allowing homers in the 1.75 – 2 and 2.75 – 3 ranges last season, Paxton allowed six. There were more fly balls hit, especially in that top range, so it’s not surprising that a few balls found their way out of the park. Still, it’s apparent Paxton ran into some bad luck. In both regions, his actual wOBA allowed on all balls in play was higher than his xwOBA. At the higher region, it was .457 vs. .360, and the lower region, .385 vs. .329.

Now let’s move toward the heart of the plate. From 2 – 2.5, Paxton allowed ten homers on thirty fly balls compared to just four on twenty the season prior. This somehow occurred despite a lower xwOBA in 2018 (.408) than 2017 (.432). In other words: in a season when hitters had poorer quality of contact when they put the ball in play on pitches in that range, Paxton had worse luck.

How can we interpret this information? For one, maybe Paxton was lucky in 2017. Perhaps he should have given up more home runs and that his low HR/FB rate was good fortune. Or, the lefty was really unlucky in 2018 and he truly is skilled at keeping fly balls in the yard. The true answer lies somewhere in the middle of those extremes. Seattle almost certainly helped his HR/FB rate in the seasons prior to 2018, but that doesn’t mean he deserved the results he had in 2018.

Paxton will probably wind up somewhere in the middle of the two versions of himself while in pinstripes. That’s a cop out answer, I know, but it’s sensible. Yankee Stadium gives up more homers, so that’s an inevitable boost to Paxton’s HR/FB ratio. It’s just that we shouldn’t use 2018 Paxton as a baseline for the increase. Projection systems PECOTA (1.09 HR/9) and Steamer (1.17 HR/9) agree, though they are a little bit closer to 2018 Paxton than pre-2018 Paxton.

If all of this makes you worried about Paxton in pinstripes, take a deep breath. Keep in mind all of the good things that he does. He’s got a blazing fastball, a sharp cutter, and good control. He misses a ton of bats. Projection systems like him too, basically just as much as Luis Severino. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe that the southpaw won’t excel in pinstripes. He’s too talented not to.

James Paxton’s command and the effect of his batterymates

February 4, 2019 by Derek Albin

Anytime a player is traded to a new team, new experiences await. Whether it’s a new home, new city, new mound, new teammates…the list goes on. James Paxton was traded to the Yankees in November, so he’s had ample time to get his living arrangements in order. What he hasn’t had a chance to do is build a rapport with his new batterymates, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. Fortunately, spring training will be an opportunity to do so.

Being familiar with one another is important in the pitcher-catcher relationship, but there are certain traits that are unique to both positions. In particular, the catcher can’t aim a pitcher’s offering, and the pitcher doesn’t have the ability to frame a pitch. Paxton comes to the Yankees presumably as the same pitcher he was with the Mariners, but he won’t be pitching to the same catcher anymore. How do the Yankees’ catchers, Sanchez in particular, since he should get the bulk of Paxton’s innings, stack up against the southpaw’s former partner?

Tale of the tape: Zunino vs. Sanchez

Paxton will no longer pitch to one of baseball’s best defensive catchers, Mike Zunino. The bat never came around like Seattle hoped, but Zunino was an elite receiver from day one. He’s had some monster framing years, most notably 2014, when he racked up 22 framing runs. His framing stats have declined in recent years, but as Jeff Sullivan wrote, part of this is due to the rest of the league catching on to framing.

Sanchez, who will be Paxton’s new main partner, receives plenty of hate for his defense. Passed balls are the reason for the disdain, but that doesn’t make him a bad receiver. There’s no question that he needs to improve his blocking, but he helps the defense in other ways, including throwing and pitch framing. The Yankees have bought into framing for over a decade, and Sanchez is yet another backstop who shines with his presentation.

Metric (2018)	Sanchez	Zunino
CSAA	0.005	0.008
CSAA Standard Deviation	+/- 0.002	+/- 0.002
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities	4.9	8.4
Framing Runs/7000 opportunities Standard Deviation	+/- 2.2	+/- 1.9
Called Strike% on Edge Pitches	50.02%	50.75%
Team Avg. FB Velocity	93.8	90.8
Team Avg. FB Spin	2331	2174
Team Avg. Breaking Spin	2532	2335

Zunino has an edge on Sanchez in Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) and Framing Runs, though there is some uncertainty about this. Both catchers are within each other’s error bars, meaning that Sanchez could be just as good or better than Zunino. He could still be worse! But ultimately, there really isn’t a big difference between the two. They’re both good framers.

A big difference between the two are the pitching staffs they handle. Stylistically, the Yankees and Mariners are polar opposites. The Yankees ranked first, first, and second in team fastball velocity, fastball spin rate, and breaking ball spin rate, respectively. Seattle placed last, second to last, and fifth-worst, respectively, in those same categories. Simply put: Sanchez has a much tougher group to handle.

Although Zunino had an easier staff to catch, be aware that CSAA adjusts for the pitcher, among other things. It judges Zunino and Sanchez independent of who is on the mound. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take the two different styles into consideration. Rather, perhaps it lends credence to the potential of Sanchez being in the positive range of his standard deviation while Zunino is in the negative range.

I’d be remiss without mentioning Romine here. He’s within the same range of certainty as Sanchez and Zunino, meaning that Paxton is also in good hands with him. Ideally, it won’t be more than a handful of starts that Romine needs to catch, but it’s reassuring to have a backup of Romine’s defensive caliber.

Catchers aside, what does Paxton bring to the table?

Paxton has excellent control

Pitchers who work quickly and fill up the strike zone are a manager’s dream. Paxton is just that. He challenges hitters with his fastball-heavy approach, knowing full well that they can’t catch up to him. Take a look:

Based on the above heatmap, it’s no surprise that Paxton had the fifth-highest called strike probability (CS Prob) of all starters last year. That’s the likelihood of any given pitch being a called strike, based on probabilities that are assigned to certain areas within and outside the strike zone. It’s best explained here, although the following diagram from that article is a great illustration as well:

Those rounded squares are different bands of called strike probability, with all pitches in the innermost area called a strike 90 percent of the time and all pitches in the outermost area called a strike 10 percent of the time. Keep in mind that these are not hard and fast lines of demarcation; the likelihood of a called strike gradually decreases as the area expands. Paxton lives in the 90 percent band, hence his high CS Prob.

Paxton doesn’t have great command

We’ve established that Paxton throws lots of strikes, but the quality of strikes is a different story. Getting strikes on pitches in the aforementioned 90 percent band isn’t challenging, but being able to locate pitches on the corners consistently is another thing.

CSAA, when used for pitchers, is a good proxy for command. Because CSProb assigns the likelihood of strike calls, CSAA can take this a step further by assessing the frequency of getting strikes at varying ranges of probability, controlled for things like the count, catcher, umpire, and hitter. Able to nab a bunch of strikes in a low probability area? Good command. Lose strikes in a higher probability area? Not so much. Anecdotally, a lot of pitchers lose strikes when they miss the target, forcing the catcher to make awkward movements. So how did Paxton do? He had the worst CSAA in baseball last season, at -3.38 percent.

I’m not so sure it’s fair to say that this means Paxton has the worst command in baseball, because after all, he just might not be trying to paint the corners. It’s not like he needs to. Plus, although he’s always been below average per CSAA, he’s been pretty consistent at throwing to the edge of the zone.

Year	Edge%	CSAA	CSProb
2013	45.10%	-0.88	48.80%
2014	47.90%	-1.02	45.30%
2015	45.10%	-0.76	47.50%
2016	49.20%	-1.33	50.40%
2017	46.60%	-1.98	50.00%
2018	46.40%	-3.38	53.00%

For whatever reason, Paxton got absolutely hosed on borderline fastballs compared to the rest of the league. You would think fastballs are the easiest pitches for umpires to judge since they are the straightest offering.

% of Edge Pitches Called Strikes
Pitch	Paxton	MLB
Fastball (4-Seam)	41.4% (379 pitches)	47.40%
Cutter	31.4% (35 pitches)	47.60%
Curveball	46.9% (96 pitches)	48.60%

So Paxton had virtually the same edge percentage in 2017 as he did in 2018, yet his CSAA tanked. Umpires didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt on fastballs near the corners. Bizarre.

Is Zunino to blame?

What makes Paxton’s poor CSAA surprising at first is that he’s thrown to a great framer for his entire career. How could he struggle to get the extra calls on the edges while throwing to a catcher that excels in that department? The key thing to understand is that Zunino is not the culprit. Pitcher CSAA level sets with who’s catching, hitting, and umpiring. The whole point of the stat is to try to isolate the pitcher’s contribution, all else being equal. So if this is on Paxton, why is it happening?

I looked at Paxton’s heatmap for edge pitches against the Mariners’ heat map for called strikes on the edge. Ideally, I would have compared Paxton to the entire league, but I could only generate the heat maps by team. For what it’s worth: all teams are pretty similar to the Mariners in this regard. Plenty of borderline low strikes called, but few at the top of the zone. The problem for Paxton? He throws a lot of high heaters. Now we’re getting somewhere (click image for large view).

Left: All of Paxton’s edge pitches. Right: All of Seattle’s edge pitches called for strikes.

I don’t want to overwhelm you with heatmaps, but there are a few other important ones to note that emphasize my point about Paxton’s high fastballs. Here is where he locates his fastball on the edges, here are his strike calls on the edges (on all pitch types), and here are the balls on the edges (on all pitch types). Keep in mind, Paxton throws his fastball around 65 percent of the time. So those strike calls you at the bottom of the edge? Those are rare.

Paxton works upstairs quite a bit with fastball, and those simply don’t get called strikes very often. CSAA doesn’t penalize Paxton too harshly for each pitch in that region, since it’s a low-probability strike. However, because he predominantly hits the upper edges, the penalty adds up. Add that to the lack of pitches thrown in the lower-right quadrant of the edge, where most extra strikes are picked up, doesn’t help Paxton either.

Why Sanchez and Paxton might pair better

Here’s what we know: Paxton throws a good portion of his edge pitches at the top of the zone, but umpires are disinclined to call high strikes. Even the best framers aren’t going to steal strikes up in the zone (click image for larger view):

Those are the locations where Zunino, Sanchez, and Romine received strikes on the black last season. All of them do well at the bottom of the box, to no surprise. The most noticeable difference is that Sanchez (and Romine, to a degree) do a tad better than Zunino as pitches elevate.

What gives me some hope, not that we need any for Paxton (he’s really good), is that he might get a few extra strikes at the top with Sanchez and Romine. However, we might not see this reflected in his CSAA, because it adjusts for who’s catching. Where we could see the impact is the percentage of fastballs called for strikes on the edge, which is a raw and unadjusted amount.

Zunino might be a better framer than anyone the Yankees have, but he also might not be the right match for a pitcher like Paxton. All positive framing catchers are going to do well stealing strikes down because it jibes with today’s umpiring. Zunino appears to build most of his framing value on low offerings. Sanchez and Romine do well there as well, but it’s not as concentrated as Zunino. Sanchez perhaps meshes best in terms of presenting Paxton’s high fastball. With guys like Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman on the roster, maybe it’s not a surprise that Sanchez has held his own on higher pitches. Those two have power fastballs and like to elevate them, similar to Paxton.

Chances are that Paxton’s transition to Sanchez and Romine will be a lateral one. The Yankees catchers are practically in a dead heat with Zunino when it comes to the advanced metrics. Any downside seems unlikely, as Sanchez and Romine would have to decline suddenly. Fortunately, there is no indication of that occurring anytime soon. The best case scenario is that Paxton will get high strikes more often in pinstripes. The adjusted metrics might not change, but the raw results could improve.