Jed Lowrie Archives - River Avenue Blues

The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

December 26, 2018 by Mike

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Gonzalez, LeMahieu, & Lowrie

December 19, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Marwin Gonzalez going deep. (Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees need for a middle infielder is paramount, with Didi Gregorius still shelved for a still undetermined period of time; and, lest we forget, this is also his last season of team control. Brian Cashman and Co. are meeting today with the best available option to fill that hole – both now and long-term – in Manny Machado. Given the competition for his services and whatever payroll restrictions the Yankees have, however, the likelihood of Machado signing on the dotted line feels lower than most anyone would like. As such, it makes sense to dig into the next tier of middle infield options, even if that would mean shifting Gleyber Torres to short.

And so, without further ado, let’s talk about Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie.

Marwin Gonzalez

2018 Stats – .247/.324/.409, 16 HR, 2 SB, 104 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

I think there is something of a collective overrating of Gonzalez, due to his positional flexibility and his prominence as a contributor to the Houston Astros these last two years. Well it’s that, and the fact that he was absurdly productive in 2017, slashing .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) with 23 home runs, and playing at least 19 games at five different positions (first, second, third, short, and left). That season sticks out like a sore thumb, though:

I would not argue that Gonzalez is a bad player; far from it, in fact. He has a great deal of value as a player that offers a league-average bat and sound defense all around the field, and his pop and recently found on-base skills should not be discounted. I would just urge caution with anyone that compares him to Ben Zobrist – the standard-bearer for this role – as Zobrist’s track record was eight years of strong production (124 wRC+ from 2008 through 2015) before he hit free agency.

Of course, a utility player doesn’t have to be Zobrist to be worth a spot on the roster. I just believe that our expectations should be more in-line with Gonzalez’s 2018 (or 2014 and 2015) than 2017. But I’ve digressed enough.

Gonzalez, who will be 30 in March, has logged 500+ innings at the five positions mentioned above. Here’s how he grades out:

First Base: +1.2 UZR/150, +3.0 DRS/150
Second Base: -5.2 UZR/150, +4.7 DRS/150
Third Base: -6.7 UZR/150, -3.2 DRS/150
Shortstop: -6.9 UZR/150, -0.6 DRS/150
Left Field: +8.0 UZR/150, +10.2 DRS/150

There is one caveat to those numbers: Gonzalez has gotten progressively worse at shortstop over the last two years (-6.5 UZR, -8 DRS), so I wouldn’t count on him being anything more than below-average there. However, I do think he can be counted on to be more than passable at second, which is the position at issue, as well as first – which would help his fit once Gregorius returns.

So what we have here is a league-average (or slightly better) switch-hitter with average-ish defense at a position of need (if not two). What’s the going rate for that? MLB Trade Rumors projects four years, $36 MM, whereas the FanGraphs crowd foresees three years, $30 MM. There’s no qualifying offer consideration here, so it’s just cold hard cash for Gonzalez’s services.

Is there hidden value here, though? Something that can be tapped into by a move to Yankee Stadium, perhaps? The answer is … not really. Gonzalez is more of an all fields hitter from the left side of the plate, so the short porch may not help him as much as you’d expect. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – but he’s not the sort of player that stands to take serious advantage of the park’s dimensions.

With all that in mind, I think Gonzalez is a good fit for the Yankees. The price seems reasonable, and there’s the off-chance that he has another big season or two in his bat. And, as a baseline, we know he can handle at least three positions well-enough, and he’s a better hitter than the vast majority of utility players. He’s also still in his prime, so we shouldn’t have to worry about decline for another two or three years.

DJ LeMahieu

2018 Stats – .276/.321/.428, 15 HR, 6 SB, 86 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

LeMahieu has been a full-time player since joining the Rockies for their stretch run in 2012, and has spent the vast majority of his time as the everyday second baseman. He has won three Gold Gloves in that time, including back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018, and there’s no doubt that he is one of the premier keystone defenders in all of baseball. LeMahieu averages +4.6 UZR/150 and +11.6 DRS/150 for his career, and is coming off of his best season by both metrics. If the Yankees want to make sure second is in good hands while Torres mans shortstop, there might not be a better option out there.

But what about his bat?

At face value, the right-handed LeMahieu has the look of a quality contact hitter. He has slashed .298/.350/.406 in 3799 career plate appearances, and his strikeout rate of 15.2% is among the best in the league. Here’s the rub: he’s a Coors Field guy.

LeMahieu is a .329/.386/.447 (96 wRC+) hitter at Coors, and a .267/.314/.367 hitter (84 wRC+) everywhere else. Put that together and you have a guy with a 90 wRC+, who has just one season (2016) where he posted a wRC+ that was better than league-average. His high-contact approach pays dividends at high altitude, but makes him an empty batting average guy elsewhere.

The 30-year-old LeMahieu, then, isn’t all that different from the all-glove, no-hit options that Mike mentioned as possible fill-ins at shortstop. Is there really much difference between an elite defensive second baseman with an 84 wRC+, and Freddy Galvis – an elite defensive shortstop – and his 77 wRC+? I don’t think so.

To summarize, LeMahieu is a right-handed hitter that doesn’t offer pop or big-time on-base skills. His defense is great – but that’s basically all of his value. And most projections see him making eight-figures per year for two or three years. That’s a hard-pass for me.

Jed Lowrie

2018 Stats – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR

Lowrie, who will turn 35 in April, has had an up-and-down career that is somehow entering its twelfth season. I still remember him as a tantalizing Red Sox prospect from way back when, and I remember the frustration at his propensity for injuries – flukish and otherwise. But he has been healthy in each of the last two years, which have been the two best years of his career. They were eerily similar, too:

2017 – .277/.360/.448, 119 wRC+, 11.3 BB%, 15.5 K%, 119 wRC+
2018 – .267/.353/.448, 122 wRC+, 11.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, 122 wRC+

How’s that for consistency?

The switch-hitting Lowrie has also shown a starker platoon split these last two years, slashing .255/.336/.393 (102 wRC+) against lefties and .278/.364/.498 (128 wRC+) against righties. That may not be ideal, but it isn’t a deal breaker, either. And being above-average against righties and average against lefties is better than the opposite, given that far more plate appearances will come against righties.

Offensively, then, Lowrie looks quite good. He walks at an above-average clip, hits for power, and doesn’t strike out all that much. And he’s done this in the unfriendly environs of Oakland, to boot. So what about his defense?

Lowrie has experience at every infield position. He came up as a shortstop, but hasn’t played there regularly since 2014; second base has been his home since 2016. Let’s see how he’s done there:

2016: -5.5 UZR/150, -11.9 DRS/150
2017: -0.7 UZR/150, -1.8 DRS/150
2018: 5.6 UZR/150, +0.9 DRS/150

That kind of looks like a learning curve, doesn’t it? Lowrie played around 400 innings at the keystone prior to 2016, and it showed. Since then, however, he’s been somewhere between average and an asset thereat. He’s in his mid-30s now, so he might be closer to average (if not a tick below) sooner rather than later – but I think he’s a safe bet to be reliable there.

As was the case with Gonzalez and LeMahieu, there are no draft pick considerations – it’s just cash. MLBTR projects three years and $30 MM, and FanGraphs prediction two and $24 MM. The age is disconcerting, as is the injury history (particularly when taken in conjunction with his age), but Lowrie somehow feels safe enough to me. I would rather have him for two years than three, though.

And if it comes down to Gonzalez or Lowrie, I think it’s an intriguing debate to have. Gonzalez offers comparative youth and way more versatility, but Lowrie was much better last year, and is probably a better hitter and defender at second. If I had to choose, I might go with Gonzalez, if only because he can be a bench asset once Gregorius returns to the fold; Lowrie is all but limited to second (and maybe third). These are definitely the two best options on the market this side of Machado, though, and I’d be happy with either.

Regardless of inning, Zach Britton should face the middle of the A’s lineup in the Wild Card Game

October 3, 2018 by Mike

Oddly enough, one lingering question going into tonight’s Wild Card Game is who’s going to close for the Yankees? It’s a question rather than a problem. The Yankees have about five relievers who could handle the ninth inning, if necessary. We just don’t know who Aaron Boone will use in a save situation tonight.

Since returning from his month-long stint on the disabled list Aroldis Chapman has pitched mostly in the seventh and eighth innings as he works to get back into a groove. His first outing back was a mess. Three runs in two-thirds of an inning and he was all over the place. In four games since, Chapman has not allowed a hit, and he’s struck out eight of 13 batters. That’ll work.

Zach Britton has filled in at closer recently and he’s been excellent, though in two games against the Red Sox the defense refused to turn double plays behind him. Britton has allowed two earned runs in his last 17 appearances and 17.2 innings. Opponents hit .145/.206/.194 against him in those 17.2 innings. The further he’s gotten from the Achilles injury, the better he’s been. A graph:

Britton did not have a normal Spring Training following that Achilles injury. He’s gradually regained velocity on his trademark sinker and, as that’s happened, his ground ball rate has climbed. Britton posted a 77.8% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That is both outrageously good and right in line with his 77.7% ground ball rate from 2015-17. That’s what Britton does. He gets ground balls.

“Arm-wise, I can’t tell you how great my arm feels compared to any other year since I’ve been in the majors,” said Britton to Dan Martin during yesterday’s workout. “Maybe when I was 18 in the minors. I think the time off and wasn’t able to work out and I just rested helped.”

As noted this morning, Aaron Boone has said he’s open to letting Britton close in the postseason. It kinda depends how Chapman felt and looked as he returned from the knee injury, and, aside from that first appearance, Chapman was lights out. The triple-digit velocity wasn’t there, but he used his slider effectively and pitched very well, including in a save situation Saturday.

My hunch is the Yankees want Chapman to close in the postseason. They want him to be the guy at the end of games, which would free up Britton to pitch in other situations. Marc Carig wrote a great piece about the tools the Yankees use to determine bullpen matchups recently. It’s behind the paywall, so I can’t give away too much, but this part stuck out to me:

The concept itself is not new. There’s no shortage of publicly-available data to expose which hitters might have trouble against cutters buried in on the hands, or two-seamers that nick the corners. But the Yankees have used their blend of data to tailor those projections. With their tools, it’s possible to estimate a hitters’ performance not against just two-seam fastballs in general, but two-seam fastballs thrown by Britton, or curveballs thrown by Robertson, or sliders thrown by Chapman. Specific velocity and spin is taken into account and matched up to a hitters’ bat path, which can also be precisely measured.

Given that information, computers can simulate an expected result. From there, game plans can be formulated, strategies mapped out, scenarios anticipated. If they choose, pitchers can use those insights in their own preparation. Fearing overload, many of the Yankees’ relievers prefer to steer clear. But since coming from the Orioles, Britton has embraced the data, which he called far more detailed than what was available to him in Baltimore. In some cases, the projections have contradicted his instincts. In others, they have only reinforced the game plan he had already formulated.

Pretty cool! I remember reading something last year that explained the Indians essentially simulated and projected Edwin Encarnacion’s season before signing him. They used all the Trackman data and all sorts of neat stuff to map out the schedule, and the pitchers Encarnacion might face, and the possible weather patterns. They baked all that into the cake, projected Encarnacion’s production, and used it to determine whether he was worth signing. And, obviously, he was.

According to Carig, the Yankees do something similar with their bullpen matchups. They project how their relievers, with their individual stuff, match up against specific hitters. It’s pretty cool. Ultimately, it’s up to the pitcher to perform. The system may say David Robertson is the best matchup against Khris Davis in tonight’s Wild Card Game, but if Robertson hangs a curveball, Davis will hit it to the moon. Make the most informed decision and hope it all works out on the field, basically.

Anyway, I mention this because it seems possible the best way to use Britton tonight will be against the middle of the Athletics lineup, rather than as the closer. Maybe the middle of the lineup comes up in the ninth and this all works out nice and easy. But what if they come up in the seventh inning in a one-run game? Or in the eighth? The A’s have several extreme fly ball and home run hitters in their lineup. Their standard middle of the order:

3. Jed Lowrie: 33.2% grounders and 23 homers
4. Khris Davis: 35.3% grounders and 48 homers
5. Matt Olson: 35.9% grounders and 29 homers

One-hundred-and-forty players had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title this year. Among those 140 players Lowrie had the seventh lowest ground ball rate, Davis had the 20th lowest ground ball rate, and Olson had the 25th lowest ground ball rate. They are three of the most extreme fly ball hitters in baseball. Fly balls tend to be rewarded at Yankee Stadium.

Britton, meanwhile, is an extreme ground ball pitcher. The most extreme ground ball pitcher in baseball when he’s on and he’s been on these last few weeks. The matchup makes perfect sense on paper. The Yankees should use their very good ground ball reliever against the very good fly ball hitters in the middle of the A’s lineup. Right? Right. Maybe it doesn’t work out. Maybe Britton leaves up a pitch up and gets burned. Or maybe the A’s beat him with ground ball singles. It’s baseball. You can do everything right and still get beat.

What does the Yankees’ proprietary matchup system say about Britton vs. Lowrie/Davis/Olson? Beats me. I’d love to know. Here are three heat maps showing where each guy hits the ball the hardest — by that I mean fly balls or line drives with a 95 mph exit velocity or better — against left-handed pitchers. It’s Lowrie, Davis, and Olson from left-to-right (click to embiggen):

If you’re a lefty, you need to keep the ball down against the switch-hitting Lowrie. Against the right-handed hitting Davis, the best spot for a lefty is down and in. Elevate the ball too much on the outer half and he’ll drive it the other way. Olson is a left-handed hitter. Looks like a left-handed pitcher has to pitch him away. Britton and his sinker appear to be a good matchup candidate against those three. Perhaps the Yankees see it differently.

We still don’t know who will close for the Yankees tonight and it’s not because they lack options. I think they want it to be Chapman, but, if he’s not where he needs to be following the knee injury, it could be Britton. Boone’s bullpen usage will not happen on a whim. There’s a lot that goes into these decisions, and it’s possible Britton is most valuable to the Yankees as a middle of the A’s lineup specialist tonight, rather than as a closer. And, if that is the case, it won’t matter whether he pitches the seventh or eighth or ninth, as long as he faces the right hitters.

Caldera: Yankees haven’t shown much interest in Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera

December 2, 2014 by Mike 249 Comments

According to Pete Caldera, free agent infielders Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera have “not gained much traction” with the Yankees this offseason. The winter has actually been rather quiet for both Lowrie and Cabrera so far even though most of the top free agent bats are already off the board. Neither player received a qualifying offer, by the way.

Lowrie, 30, hit only .249/.321/.355 (93 wRC+) with six homers in 566 plate appearances for the Athletics this past season. He had a great April (154 wRC+) but only mustered a 77 wRC+ the rest of the way. Lowrie is a switch-hitter who has been much better against righties the last three or four years, and he seems to have gotten over the injury problems that plagued him earlier in his career.

Cabrera put up a .241/.307/.387 (97 wRC+) batting line with 14 homers and ten steals in 616 plate appearances for the Indians and Nationals in 2014. He’s younger than you may realize — Cabrera turned 29 just last month — and, unlike Lowrie, he’s a switch-hitter with no significant platoon split the last few seasons. In two of the last three years, Lowrie and Asdrubal have been roughly equal at the plate:

Source: FanGraphs — Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera

Now, the thing is neither Lowrie nor Cabrera is a shortstop these days. They’re both below-average defensively — Cabrera has a knack for flashy highlight reel plays that has inflated the perception of his defense — and better suited for second base at third point of their careers. Cabrera played second for Washington at the end of the season and Lowrie did it a whole bunch earlier in his career.

For what it’s worth, the FanGraphs Crowdsourcing results peg Lowrie and Cabrera for essentially identical three-year contracts worth $30M or so. Neither is a perfect solution for the Yankees but they need infielders badly. If the trade market comes up empty — that’s where it appears they are focused at the moment — and the team’s unwillingness to give Chase Headley more than three years pushes him out of town, these two guys are probably the best of what’s left. Yuck.

Mailbag: Lowrie/Cabrera, Zobrist, Roller, Frazier

November 28, 2014 by Joe Pawlikowski 652 Comments

Just a few shopkeeping items before we dive into the questions:

1. If you’re giving Yankees/baseball gear as gifts this year, You can also give a gift to RAB at the same time, free of charge. When you buy from the MLB Shop, Fanatics, or Amazon using our links at the RAB Shop we get a little cut. Same price for you, a little cash in our pockets.

Here are some deals at the MLB Shop today:

Free Shipping on orders of $50 or more

Those deals last through Sunday.

2. In case you haven’t noticed, we’re experimenting with a new mailbag submission form. It’s in the sidebar. You only have to hit Send once — it might not look like it goes through, but it does. We’re working on slightly better functionality on that. You can still email us questions if you prefer, but this form seems to work for more people.

3. Starting Monday morning we’re sending out a daily digest email. You can read more about the daily digest here. You can also sign up there, or you can just enter your email address into the field above.

And now, onto the questions.

Mark L. asks: Do you see signing two of Lowrie / Drew / Cabrera to mix and match with Prado as a cost-effective alternative to big bucks Headley?

No, I cannot see that. It seems increasingly probable that some team offers Chase Headley a four-year deal. Since the Yankees are willing to give only three, they’ll have to find help elsewhere.

Would it cost them less to sign Lowrie or Cabrera? Maybe a little, but maybe not. If Headley signs elsewhere I think they allocate that money to other positions and use Refsnyder or Pirela at second with Prado at third.

JR asks: With the Rays appearing to be in rebuilding mode, What would the cost be to get Zobrist be?

I’m not sure the Rays are in complete rebuild mode. Maybe they’re not looking for win-right-now pieces, but they’re not doing some three-year project. That said, Ben Zobrist has just one year left on his contract, for a super reasonable $7.5 million (well, $7.75 really, because he gets $.25 million if traded).

It’s hard to find a reasonable value here, though. How much is one year of Zobrist worth to you? I’m guessing the Rays want something like Greg Bird and a pitcher, and I don’t think I’d go that far. Not where the Yankees stand right now.

If they’re on the brink of greatness — if they have three guys with power who you can count on in addition to the table setters, and a great pitching staff — then maybe I consider mortgaging a decent prospect for one year of a player as versatile as Zobrist. But right now? The roster is too weak right now to make a move like that.

Hmmm asks: Would it be in the Yankees best interest, for the overall future of the team, if they do not sign anyone to over a 4 or 5 year contract until they are a legitimate contender to win? I understand that those contracts can help them become a contender, but I feel like if they don’t have the young talent that will make them perennial contenders that those contracts will just prove to be a waste.

I don’t understand this mentality at all. What does young talent have to do with being perennial contenders? Look at the 1996 Yankees. They had one starting pitcher under 30, and a lineup of mostly imported veterans. That’s not to say that the 2015 Yankees have a Jeter or a Bernie, but the idea that young talent creates perennial winners is a bit off.

You can only work with the players available to you, whether that’s on the roster or available to you in trade or free agency. Cutting yourself off from that talent because of years in a reasonable range is silly. Avoiding 10-year deals? Sure, that’s something you might want to avoid in general. But 4-5 years deals are pretty standard.

nycsportzfan asks: Why did the Yanks not protect Kyle Roller?

Roller did rake last season, mostly in AAA, so it seems as though he’s knocking on the door. That said, he turns 27 before the season starts, so it’s not as though he’s some prime prospect that they just didn’t protect.

There’s a lot going on with Rule 5 protection. You have to take into account the roster implications. A few years ago Brian Cashman said something about sometimes the best way to protect a player is to not add him to the 40-man roster. Wish I could find the exact quote. His point was that because of roster crunch issues, sometimes you protect guys and later have to make some tough DFA choices.

Say you protect someone on the fringe, but have to DFA him in June for some roster crunch reason. A team might not have taken him in the Rule 5, because they didn’t see a way to keep him on the MLB roster all year. But on waivers he doesn’t have that restriction. You can stash him in the minors for a few years. So a team that wouldn’t have made a Rule 5 pick might jump in with a waiver claim.

The Yanks have plenty of needs this off-season, and they’ll need roster spots. They can’t afford to have one of those spots taken up by a 27-year-old first baseman. Also, Roller didn’t even make this enormous list of Rule 5 possibilities.

Elfi asks: Why would the Yankees sign Headley for 3B when they have a solid and capable player in Prado who could do it? Prado I’m sure can at least match Headley’s numbers. This would pave the way for Refsnyder to be the 2B and of course A-Rod at DH

It’s all about depth. If you go into the season with Prado at 3B, you’re stuck with the rookies as your first option at 2B. If they fail, then what? By creating some depth, they can react to injuries and failures. If Prado gets hurt, Pierla or Refsnyder steps in. If they fail as a depth option, that’s one thing. But to rely on them, and have no real backup option, would hurt quite a lot.

Chris R. asks: Doesn’t a run at Todd Frazier make a ton of sense? 28 year old that can play 1st & 3rd. Entering his arb years so he will start to cost Cincy some money now.

Cincinnati is in a tough spot right now, with the poor season they had combined with a number of their pitchers hitting free agency after 2015. They’re locked into a couple of huge contracts, so they could seem inflexible at this point.

That said, he’s one of their only weapons on offense. Unless they go into rebuild mode — and I’m talking trade-Votto rebuild mode — I can’t see them entertaining offers for Frazier.

That said, a Jersey-raised kid who went to Rutgers and walks up to “Fly Me to the Moon” Frazier sounds like a Yankee to me.

Lightning Round

Kenny asks: With the Yankees looking for a new shortstop, do you think Ruben Tejada is on their radar?

The Mets also need a shortstop, so that should answer the question right there.

Daniel asks: Assuming no major changes to the current rotation, who would be the opening day starter?

Have to imagine that’s CC’s job for at least one more season, if he’s healthy.

Matt asks: The Rays are reportedly listening on offers for Yunel Escobar, should the Yankees be interested?

He doesn’t seem like the Yanks kind of player. The Braves traded him for peanuts because they couldn’t stand his attitude. Plus, he’s not a very good SS, even if he can hit a little.

Dustin asks: Dave Martinez for 1B coach or hitting coach?

He’s as good a candidate as any. I have a feeling that the Yankees are more interested in Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton, though. But maybe they bring in both, given that they have two coaching openings.

Mailbag: Smyly, Kemp, Beckett, Braun, Lowrie

November 15, 2013 by Mike 38 Comments

Nine questions this week, so it’s another rapid fire mailbag with short-ish answers. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything at anytime.

Peter asks: Should the Yankees speak to the Tigers about trading for Drew Smyly and turn him back into a starter? How well do they match up and what would you give up?

To answer the question, yes, I think the Yankees should look to trade for Smyly so they can convert him back into a starter. Jon Morosi says the Tigers are fielding offers for Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello as a way to plug other roster holes and clear payroll with Smyly taking over the vacated rotation spot. The Yankees should have interest in all of those guys — slightly less interest in Porcello, who needs a good infield defense to be effective — including Smyly. I looked at the 24-year-old southpaw as a trade candidate last winter and everything still holds true, except he now has a season as elite reliever (2.37 ERA and 2.31 FIP) under his belt and one fewer year of team control. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski doesn’t trade for prospects (he trades them away), he’ll want big league pieces in return. Detroit needs bullpen help and I’d give them David Robertson (free agent after 2014) for Smyly (free agent after 2018) in a heartbeat, but I suspect it’ll cost a bit more than that.

Ross asks: With the focus on the $189 million goal this off-season, what’s the likelihood the Yankees give extra years to free agents with a lower average annual value to separate their offers from other bidders?

An example of this would be signing Brian McCann for eight years and $81M ($10.125M luxury tax hit) instead of five years and $75M ($15M tax hit). The extra years lower the average annual value and thus the luxury tax hit while putting a little more money in McCann’s pocket for his cooperation. The Collective Bargaining Agreement covers potential luxury tax circumvention, and this type of maneuver would fall under that. The league would flag it and probably void the deal. It’s a good idea in theory — I’ve seen people suggest giving Alex Rodriguez a multi-year extension worth $1M a year to lower his tax hit — but I don’t think it would fly in reality. MLB doesn’t take too kindly to teams trying to game the system.

Mark asks: How do you like Chris Iannetta as a consolation prize for losing out on McCann? Would add a little bit more power to the bottom of the order.

Iannetta, 30, hit .225/.358/.372 (111 wRC+) this past season and has a 100 wRC+ with a 15.5% walk rate over the last three seasons. He’s also usually good for double digit homers. Iannetta isn’t a good defensive catcher these days (2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 rankings) and he’s owed $10.225M through 2015 ($5.1125M tax hit). The Angels are looking to stay under the luxury tax threshold themselves and one way they’ve discussed doing that is by dealing Iannetta and giving the catching reigns to young Hank Conger. Iannetta is better than the guys the Yankees have in-house and if they don’t bring in another catcher via free agency, he makes sense as a trade target. The Halos want pitching, so maybe something like Adam Warren for Iannetta makes sense for both sides. Not sure if that’s enough though. Just spit-balling here.

Glen asks: The White Sox are open to trading Alexei Ramirez. What would it take to get him and should the Yankees do it?

Well, according to Mark Gonzales, the White Sox turned Carlos Martinez when the Cardinals offered the one-for-one swap prior to the trade deadline. Jon Heyman shot that down, which makes sense because I can’t imagine Chicago would decline an offer like that. They’d be crazy. The 32-year-old Ramirez is basically Eduardo Nunez with a better glove and a much more expensive contract ($10.25M tax hit through 2015). He’s a total hacker (3.2% walk rate last two years) with no power (.098). I would prefer simply signing Brendan Ryan, who will play similar (if not better) defense and hit for a lower average but come far, far cheaper. I know good shortstops are hard to find, but I am not a Ramirez fan at all.

Bill asks: Any interest in Matt Kemp as a trade target?

Yes, but two things need to happen first. For starters, the Dodgers would have to eat a whole bunch of money. Kemp is owed $128M through 2019 ($21.3M tax hit) and I’d be willing to take him on at $16M or so annually. That means Los Angeles would have to kick in about $32M or so, a lot in the real world but little relative to the contract. Secondly, Kemp would have to go through a very thorough physical. The guy had ankle surgery a few weeks ago and left shoulder (labrum) surgery last winter, plus he’s missed a bunch of time with hamstring problems the last two years. There is evidence that hitters who have their front shoulder surgically repaired (like Kemp last winter) can lose bat speed and power for a long time and perhaps permanently. Adrian Gonzalez is a very good example — his power isn’t nearly what it was pre-2010 shoulder surgery. It has to do with the mechanics (and biomechanics, I suppose) of the swing and everything like that. Click the link, it’s interesting stuff. Kemp just turned 29 in September and his upside (MVP level performance fro, 2011-2012) is so very high that it’s hard to ignore. The salary needs to be offset and the body (especially the shoulder) needs to be checked out first, but yes, I’m interested.

Aaron asks: Any interest in Gordon Beckham for 3B? I know its been a few years but I think he’s still young enough to handle the switch back over.

Not anymore. I liked Beckham a few years ago and thought he was salvageable, but we’re going on nearly 2,500 career plate appearances with an 86 wRC+ now (88 wRC+ in 2013). Yes, he is only 27 and a breakout could be right around the corner, but Matt Swartz projects him to earn $3.5M next year and that’s a little pricey for a reclamation project in my opinion. I don’t think the transition from second base over to third will be much of a problem — hell, he still might be an option at shortstop — but it’s everything else that comes along with it, namely the price tag and noodle bat.

Travis asks: I’m thinking outside the box and more than likely this is one of the stupidest things you’ve heard in a while, but what if a team traded for Josh Beckett and made him a closer? He’s a former Red Sock, so I wouldn’t suggest Yankees, but someone?

That is ~~stupid~~ outside the box. (Kidding!) Beckett, 33, made only eight starts this year before needing surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which is what effectively ended Chris Carpenter’s career. It’s serious stuff but not always a career-ender. Dillon Gee and Matt Harrison have both dealt with it recently and come back perfectly fine. Beckett’s stuff has been fading in recent years and he was only sitting 90-91 with his fastball before getting hurt this year, and he’s a very different pitcher at 90-91 than he was was 95-96 a few years ago. Maybe a move to relief will bring back some velocity. If he can’t hold up as a starter anymore following the surgery, the bullpen would be worth exploring. I wouldn’t want to be the one to trade for him and try it, though.

Mark asks: Assume the Yankees part ways with Robinson Cano, any chance you see them trying to acquire Ryan Braun? Or does he have too much baggage with his PED suspension? Not sure the Brewers are open to dealing him, but I suspect they are given how bad the team is. Assuming he is available, he could fill the void in RF or 3B (can’t be much worse than Miguel Cabrera), is just 29 and is signed to a super team-friendly deal through 2021 (when he turns 37) at $16.5 million per year.

Believe it or not, Braun is still pretty popular in Milwaukee. This isn’t an A-Rod situation where pretty much everyone hates him. Braun is beloved by fans and his team (again, unlike A-R0d) and there’s no real desire to get rid of him. He’s the franchise cornerstone and they’re going to move forward with him as the centerpiece despite the PED stuff. Even if they wanted to get rid of him, I don’t think the Yankees don’t have the pieces to get a player of that caliber. It’s not like the Brewers would just give him away to save face and money. It’s a nice idea — he’d fit wonderfully in right field (third base isn’t happening, I don’t think “can’t be much worse than Miguel Cabrera” is a good enough reason to play him there) — and in the middle of the lineup, but it ain’t happening.

Mike asks: Would Jed Lowrie make sense as a possible trade target? He’s in his last year of arbitration this season before becoming a free agent in 2015. He’s a SS who has played 3B and 2B in the past, and he had a good year where he stayed healthy (finally) in 2013. If Billy Beane was inclined to deal him (would he be?), what kind of package would the Yankees have to give up?

Yes, he definitely makes sense. The 29-year-old Lowrie managed to stay healthy for a full season for the first time in his career this past summer, hitting 15 homers with a 121 wRC+ in a pitcher’s park. He can play shortstop but his defense is spotty, though he does make up for it with the stick. Matt Swartz projects him to earn $4.8M in 2014 and there’s a decent chance he’ll be worth a qualifying offer after the season, meaning he’ll net a draft pick if he doesn’t sign a long-term contract. Again, I’m not sure if the Yankees have enough to swing a trade for a player of Lowrie’s caliber — for what it’s worth, Joel Sherman hears the Athletics aren’t looking to trade him in the wake of the Nick Punto signing — but he’s a definite fit at this point in time.

Mailbag: Athletics, Ortiz, Youkilis, Lowrie, Bourn

June 29, 2012 by Mike 44 Comments

Five questions this week and three of them involve Red Sox players, either current or former. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.

San Diego Padres v Oakland Athletics — (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Travis asks: If Oakland is out of the running, which they may be now, would it be smart to look at possible moves for a NYY-OAK trade? Josh Reddick and Kurt Suzuki could be interesting for NY going forward.

Reddick, 25, is having a real big year (136 wRC+ and 17 homers) in Oakland though he has slowed down a bit in recent weeks. He’s always had power and so far he’s handled left-handers fine (136 wRC+), but it’s going to take an awful lot more than 98 plate appearances for him to prove that a career-long platoon issue is behind him. Obviously the Yankees need a young corner outfielder long-term so they should have interest in Reddick, but he’s not without his faults (he doesn’t walk, hasn’t hit lefties, and has a lengthy injury history). Billy Beane always seems to ask for way too much for his guys and I suspect this would be no different.

Suzuki, on the other hand, is just awful. The 28-year-old has hit .234/.292/.353 in nearly 1,300 plate appearances over the last three seasons and is down to .210/.249/.260 this year. The Athletics recently called up Derek Norris and he’s basically taken over as the starter even though Suzuki is owed more than $8M through the end of next season. Perhaps he’s just worn down after playing so many games behind the plate at such a young age — started 516 of 648 games from 2008-2011 (79.9%) — and his body just can’t handle it. Suzuki is owed way too much money and is just so impossibly bad at the plate that I don’t want him anywhere near the Yankees. I’d rather go with Frankie Cervelli and Chris Stewart next year if Russell Martin walks. Seriously.

Preston asks: What should the Yankees do at DH next season? David Ortiz seems like an obvious target, although that would clog up the DH spot. Another target might be Kevin Youkilis; he might be in line for a bounce back year and he could back up the corner infields keeping the DH a little bit more flexible.

Youkilis can do all of that and he’d be perfectly fine in that role. The only problem is that some team somewhere is going to offer him a starting job. He’s not going to come to New York to be a backup or even a half-time player when another team would pay him more money to start. Youkilis doesn’t want to stick it to the Red Sox, he doesn’t hold enough of a grudge to take a discount — both in salary and playing time — to wear pinstripes. It’s not gonna happen.

The issue with Ortiz is clogging up the DH spot that the Yankees use to rotate their regulars. With Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter getting even older, it’s that much more important to give them regular rest. Raul Ibanez is a guy you could sit for those two no problem, but Ortiz? I doubt it. He sure would look great in pinstripes and with that short porch, but I would be really surprised if the Yankees spent that much money on a player who is a true DH.

Daniel asks: This may be a bit off the wall, but what about going after Jed Lowrie? He’s hit very well since leaving Boston, and could be used as a super-sub with an eye towards taking over for Jeter in a few years.

Lowrie is actually second among all shortstops in fWAR this season thanks to his 14 homers and 132 wRC+. The Astros have used him at shortstop exclusively but he has experience at all four infield spots. As a switch-hitter with that kind of versatility, he’s an ideal bench target. The only problem is that he’s actually a starter and you’re going to have to pay a starter’s price to acquire him. Houston isn’t trading a bench player, they’re trading a legitimate starting shortstop — with two years of team control remaining — who the Yankees would choose to use as a bench player. That’s not the Astros problem.

Starting shortstops don’t come cheap, especially really good ones. Lowrie has slowed down in recent weeks and he is really injury prone — hasn’t had 500 total plate appearances in a season since 2008 — but he’s definitely a useful player, especially when batting against lefties. I have a hard time thinking that trading several prospects for a would-be bench player would be a net upgrade for the Yankees.

Mark asks: Should the Yanks consider pursuing Michael Bourn this off-season assuming they cannot come to terms with Nick Swisher?

I don’t think so. Bourn is really good, but he’s likely to command a larger contract that Swisher because he’s a better player even though they have very different styles. He does it with speed and defense while Swisher gets on-base and hits the ball over the fence. Plus playing two no-power guys in Bourn and Brett Gardner in the same outfield is really tough to do. They have to replace Swisher with someone capable of hitting the hitting for power; adding another leadoff type to a lineup that already has two of them isn’t the answer. That said, Bourn’s contract should make him a non-option for New York anyway.

Shai asks: In 1996, Mariano Duncan hit .340 and as a kid I felt that it was a weak .340, like he really wasn’t as good (in 1996) as that number. Did he have a high BABIP that year etc?

Andy Fox started nearly 40 games at second base in 1996, though Duncan was the everyday guy at that position for the most part. He hit .340/.352/.500 with eight homers that year, easily the best season of his career at the plate. This is a guy with a career 87 wRC+ suddenly posting a 113 one year. Like I always say, if you want to win a championship (in any sport), you need to get big contributions from unexpected placed. Duncan’s production that season was quite unexpected.

Anyway, that gaudy batting line was propped up by a .400 BABIP (.313 career), the fourth highest single-season BABIP of the last 25 years (min. 400 PA). Duncan didn’t walk at all (nine walks in 417 PA and one of them was intentional) and most of his power came in the form of doubles (34 two-baggers, three triples, eight homers). Does that qualify as an empty .340? Yeah I think so. I can’t imagine someone hitting for that high an average without getting on base 36% of the time, it seems impossible to do. That said, .340 is .340, and it helped the Yankees win the World Series.