Jeff Samardzija Archives - River Avenue Blues

Trade Deadline Rumors: Machado, Wheeler, Samardzija, Tigers

July 14, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later tonight the Yankees and Indians will continue their four-game series with the third game at Progressive Field. That’s a 7:15pm ET start. Until then, here are some trade rumors to check out.

“Strong” offer for Machado doesn’t include Sheffield, Frazier

The Yankees are making a “serious” push for Manny Machado and have made a “strong” offer, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman adds the offer does not include Justus Sheffield or Clint Frazier, however. Jon Morosi says the Orioles would trade Machado to New York as long as Sheffield is in the deal. There are reasons to trade Sheffield, though dealing him for a rental — even a rental as good as Machado — rather than a controllable pitcher might not be a great idea.

Would Machado address the Yankees’ biggest need? No, absolutely not. They need another starter or two. Would he make them a considerably better team? Yes, absolutely, assuming they put him back at third base, where he is otherworldly defensively. I love Miguel Andujar, he’s awesome, but Machado is a demonstrably better player in 2018 and would thus improve the team’s chances of winning the World Series quite a bit. Machado would make the Yankees that much more dangerous even if they don’t really need him. I am all for it. Let’s do this.

Yankees have inquired about Wheeler

The Yankees recently inquired about Zack Wheeler, reports Marc Carig. Among the Mets’ starters, Wheeler strikes me as most likely to go before the trade deadline because he’s only under control for one more season beyond this year. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz are all controllable for at least another two seasons. Wheeler has an injury history and he’s close to free agency. Sell sell sell.

Wheeler, 28, has a 4.42 ERA (3.71 FIP) in 99.2 innings this season, though he’s been much better of late, pitching to a 3.44 ERA (3.39 FIP) in his last eight starts and 49.2 innings. He recently added a splitter and is now throwing harder than ever before, which is perhaps an indication he’s over his injury problems from 2015-17. Wheeler’s worth a phone call, for sure. I’m intrigued by the new splitter and added velocity. That said, can the Yankees and Mets work out a trade? I need to see it to believe it.

Giants have let Yankees know Samardzija is available

According to Bob Nightengale, the Giants have been nice enough to let the Yankees know right-hander Jeff Samardzija is available in a trade. Samardzija has been on-and-off the disabled list with shoulder and pectoral trouble this year, and he has a 6.42 ERA (5.47 FIP) with nearly as many walks (24) as strikeouts (29) in 40.2 innings. He’s also owed roughly $45M through 2020. Triple whammy right there. Injuries, poor performance, expensive.

The Yankees did have interest in Samardzija as a free agent a few years ago, so I suppose there could still be some lingering interest there, but nah. Samardzija’s been hurt, he hasn’t pitched well at all, and he’d hurt the team’s chances of getting under the $197M luxury tax threshold. Unless the Giants are going to eat a lot of money and take non-prospects in return just to be rid of the headache, I don’t see a fit here. The Yankees have enough bad-to-mediocre pitching. They need good pitching.

Tigers interested in Frazier, Wade

The Tigers have a scout at Progressive Field this weekend and, according to George King, they are interested in Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade. Detroit has been scouting the farm system thoroughly in addition to the big league team. I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in preparation for a potential Michael Fulmer trade. The Yankees have been scouting Fulmer.

So far this season the 25-year-old Fulmer has a 4.11 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 107.1 innings, though, like Wheeler, he’s been much better lately, pitching to a 3.10 ERA (3.06 FIP) in his last six starts and 40.2 innings. For whatever reason Fulmer has become a “the whole is less than the sum of the parts” guy since his Rookie of the Year season in 2016. The stuff is good — very good, in fact — and I feel like he’s a tweak or two away from consistently dominating. I dunno. Either way, the Tigers are preparing for a potential trade, including getting eyes on Frazier and Wade.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Saturday

July 29, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

As of this writing, we are 54 hours away from the 2017 non-waiver trade deadline. The Yankees have already made one big trade that is paying immediate dividends. They’ve won seven of nine games since acquiring David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier from the White Sox. The two bullpen arms in particular have been a big help. The Yankees still need a starter though. Big time.

Yesterday we learned Sonny Gray talks with the Athletics are at an impasse because the A’s keep demanding either Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier. The Yankees insist those guys will not be traded. They could turn their attention to Cardinals rental righty Lance Lynn instead. We’re again going to keep track of the days Yankees-related rumors right here, so many sure you check back for updates. All timestamps are ET.

3:30pm: Torres and Frazier are not the sticking point in Gray talks. The Yankees said no to those two, the A’s moved on to other prospects, and now the clubs are trying to find common ground. [Jerry Crasnick]
1:32pm: Hal Steinbrenner said the Yankees are looking for a starter and acknowledged they will take on money to facilitate a trade. Prospect cost is a biggest obstacle. [Hal Steinbrenner]
11:31am: The Yankees continue to balk at the asking price for Sonny Gray, and if the price doesn’t drop, they’re prepared to move in a different direction. We’re going to hear lots of posturing like this from both sides over the next two days. [Jerry Crasnick]
10:00am: The Giants are receiving trade interest in Jeff Samardzija and the Yankees are one of eight teams he can be traded to without his consent. There’s been speculation about a Jacoby Ellsbury for Samardzija bad contract for bad contract swap, but I can’t see that happening. The Giants could probably get prospects from another team. Pitching is in demand. [Andrew Baggarly]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Shark off the board: Giants agree to sign Jeff Samardzija

December 5, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

The free agent pitching dominoes are starting to fall. David Price and Zack Greinke signed in recent days, and now the Giants have agreed to a five-year contract with Jeff Samardzija, reports Alex Pavlovic. Tim Brown says the deal is worth $90M. That seems totally reasonable to me.

Samardzija, 30, had a miserable walk year with the White Sox, pitching to a 4.96 ERA (4.23 FIP) in 214 innings. He was damn near ace-like in 2014 though, throwing 219.2 innings of 2.99 ERA (3.20 FIP) ball. The true Samardzija is probably somewhere in the middle of 2014 and 2015.

I wrote a Scouting The Market post on Samardzija because the Yankees have been connected to him in recent weeks. They weren’t actively pursuing him as far as we know, but they were said to be monitoring the market and lying in the weeds. The Yankees are reportedly taking the same approach with Wei-Yin Chen.

Even with Price, Greinke, and Samardzija (and Jordan Zimmermann and John Lackey) off the board, there are still a ton of quality free agent pitchers available. Chen, Johnny Cueto, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Kazmir, and Mike Leake are the best of the unsigned guys. Whether the Yankees spend money to sign one of them is another matter.

Hot Stove Links: Cliff Lee, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce

December 4, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Winter Meetings start Monday, and according to Buster Olney, the Yankees are having a ton of trade discussions with teams about many different players. The only constant: they’re looking for young pitching in return. Not the first time we’ve heard that this offseason. Here are some other miscellaneous hot stove nuggets to pass along.

Cliff Lee intends to pitch in 2016

According to Jon Heyman, free agent left-hander Cliff Lee is currently throwing and has been cleared by doctors to resume pitching. He intends to pitch next season, as long as he finds a good fit. Lee missed most of the 2014 season due to a flexor strain in his elbow, then suffered a torn flexor this spring, which caused him to miss the 2015 season. The Phillies declined his $27.5M option after the season, instead paying a $12.5M buyout.

Lee, now 37, was still really good when healthy last year (3.65 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 81.1 innings), but that was a very long time and two serious arm injuries ago. Who knows what he can give a team right now. Brian Cashman and the Yankees are longtime fans of Lee. They’ve tried to trade for him on multiple occasions and tried to sign him as a free agent. Would it be a surprise if they reached out to him this offseason? No way. The questions are 1) does he consider the Yankees a good fit, and 2) will he come to camp as a non-roster invitee? Developing!

Yankees not all that interested in Johnny Cueto

This is not a surprise. According to George King, the Yankees don’t have a whole lot of interest in free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto. They are keeping an eye on the market for Jeff Samardzija and Wei-Yin Chen, however. Without a sudden increase in payroll — which I guess is always possible — it’s hard to see how the Yankees can afford a huge money starter like Cueto.

Cueto, who turns 30 in February, recently turned down a six-year contract worth $120M from the Diamondbacks, according to multiple reports. I think he’ll end up closer to six years and $150M or so, which is Jon Lester money. Cueto struggled with the Royals down the stretch but had some truly ace-like moments in the postseason, plus his track record is outstanding. He’s going to he paid. I just think if the Yankees were willing to go into the ~$25M a year range for a free agent starter like Cueto, they’d go the extra mile for David Price.

Yankees included in Jay Bruce’s no-trade list

This doesn’t seem all that important, but Jerry Crasnick reports the Yankees are one of eight teams included on Jay Bruce’s no-trade list. He can block deals to the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Athletics, Blue Jays, and Rays. Cincinnati has committed to rebuilding and it’s only a matter of time until they trade Bruce, who hit a disappointing .226/.294/.434 (91 wRC+) with 26 homers in 2015.

The Yankees have no need for another outfielder at the moment, especially not another left-handed hitting one. I suppose they could target Bruce as a bounceback candidate should they trade Brett Gardner at some point, but I think they’d sooner go with Aaron Hicks and some young guys. Bruce, who is still only 28, has been hurt and not very good the last two years. He’s owed $12.5M next year with a $13M team option for 2017. File this under: maybe relevant down the road.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Jeff Samardzija

November 11, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

At the moment, the Yankees have seven starters for five rotation spots. That includes Ivan Nova and Adam Warren, who are depth arms and not oh gosh we need to clear a rotation spot for him arms. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off offseason elbow surgery, however, and the trio of Nathan Eovaldi (elbow), CC Sabathia (knee), and Michael Pineda (forearm) all got hurt in the second half.

Those seven starters come with seven question marks — Nova stunk this year, Warren has never spent a full MLB season as a starter, Luis Severino is a 21-year-old kid — and while adding rotation help may not be a top priority this offseason, it would make sense to at least explore the market. After all, the Yankees had those seven guys this past season and they still needed Chase Whitley, Chris Capuano, and Bryan Mitchell to make some starts.

The 2015-16 free agent class is loaded with starters. You’ve got aces, mid-rotation guys, reclamation projects, you name it. We haven’t seen a free agent class this deep with arms in a very long time. One of those arms is right-hander Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a disappointing season but nevertheless is expected to receive a significant contract this winter. The Yankees have already been connected to him. Let’s dive in.

Recent Performance

Like I said, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Samardzija had a disappointing 2015 season with the White Sox. The idea players cost themselves money with poor performance gets thrown around too much — no, those two bad weeks in September won’t kill a guy’s free agent value — but Samardzija definitely did. He was potentially looking at $100M+ this offseason. Anyway, here are his last three years.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/FB%	RH wOBA	LH wOBA
2013	213.2	4.34	3.77	23.4%	8.5%	48.2%	13.3%	.309	.342
2014	219.2	2.99	3.20	23.0%	4.9%	50.2%	10.6%	.279	.292
2015	214.0	4.96	4.23	17.9%	5.4%	39.0%	10.8%	.302	.357
2013-15	647.1	4.09	3.73	21.4%	6.3%	45.6%	11.5%	.297	.332

Okay, so which one is the real Samardzija? Is it the guy who was okay at best in 2013, the guy who was an ace in 2014, or the guy who led the league earned runs and total bases allowed in 2015? For some reason I feel like the answer is none of the above. The truth is probably somewhere between 2014 and 2015, which is an incredibly wide range of possible outcomes.

I think it’s important to note the White Sox had one of the worst defenses in baseball this season, which surely contributed to Samardzija’s trouble preventing runs. They turned relatively few balls in play into outs behind him. The bad defense doesn’t explain a five percentage point drop in strikeout rate or the ten (!) percentage point drop in ground ball rate*, however.

* Samardzija went from 0.82 HR/9 last year to 1.22 HR/9 this year, and that’s all due to the sudden lack of ground balls. His HR/FB% rate was basically identical those two years.

Let’s take a deeper look at at the type of contact Samardzija has given up the last few seasons and see what’s going on there.

	GB%	FB%	LD%	IFFB%	Pull%	Oppo%	Soft%	Hard%
2013	48.2%	31.4%	20.4%	10.1%	36.5%	23.0%	17.8%	28.2%
2014	50.2%	30.5%	19.3%	10.6%	38.0%	24.4%	19.9%	24.7%
2015	39.0%	39.8%	21.2%	10.1%	40.2%	26.4%	18.7%	26.7%
2013-15	45.6%	34.1%	20.3%	10.2%	38.3%	24.7%	18.8%	26.5%
MLB AVG	45.3%	33.8%	20.9%	9.5%	39.1%	25.7%	18.6%	28.6%

Samardzija’s hard and soft contact rates have been right in line with the league average the last few years. Same goes for pull and opposite field rates. If there was a lot of hard contact or a spike in pull rate — suggesting hitters were getting around quicker on his stuff — it would be a significant red flag.

Fly balls are not necessarily a bad thing — most fly balls are catchable, routine plays — and Samardzija has gotten a bit more infield pop-ups than the league average pitcher the last three years. Pop-ups are almost as good as strikeouts. They’re as close to a sure out as there is in this game. Still, Samardzija’s ground ball rate fell and his fly ball rate climbed big time in 2015, and that’s something we can’t ignore.

Something caused those changes in Samardzija’s fly ball and ground ball rates this year. They’re just the symptoms of the problem, not the problem itself. Samardzija’s stuff and pitch mix may have the answers, or at least point us in the right direction.

The Stuff

At this point of his career Samardzija is a true five-pitch pitcher. He stopped toying around with a changeup and a curveball a few years ago, instead settling on a splitter and slider as his go-to secondary pitches. Three different fastballs — four-seamer, sinker, cutter — round out his repertoire. Here’s a real quick average velocity breakdown from Brooks Baseball:

That’s a pretty significant drop in four-seamer velocity, right? Samardzija lost 1.3 mph off his heater last season. The velocity drop on his other pitches — sinker (.52 mph), slider (.97 mph), cutter (.64 mph), splitter (.90 mph) — is not as severe but is still notable. Samardzija was still one of the hardest throwing starters in baseball last season, that’s important to remember, but there was enough of a velocity drop across to board to make you notice.

Samardzija’s pitch selection the last three years is pretty interesting. Most guys who throw five pitches really throw like three pitches and occasionally flash the other two. That’s not the case with Samardzija. He throws all five regularly. Here’s the data, again via Brooks Baseball:

Samardzija threw all of his pitches at least 12.7% of the time last year and didn’t throw one more than 24.7% of the time. He doesn’t throw the splitter to righties and he doesn’t throw the slider to lefties, which makes sense, but otherwise Samardzija uses everything. This isn’t Tanaka throwing that slow curveball four or five times a game, for example.

I am not at all surprised to see Samardzija threw his cutter significantly more often last season. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is renowned for teaching the cutter and getting his pitchers to emphasis it. Cooper taught Jose Quintana and Gavin Floyd a cutter in recent years and turned their careers around. Samardzija always threw a cutter, but he nearly doubled his usage of the pitch this season from just two years ago.

And perhaps that is part of the problem. The additional cutters — and additional sliders, I’m guessing some of those sliders were cutters that maybe broke more than usual and wound up being classified as sliders — came at the expense of sinkers more than anything, and hey, that might explain the sudden drop in Samardzija’s ground ball rate. Then again, his grounder rate was down across the board, on all his pitches. Again via Brooks Baseball:

MLB Averages: Four-seam (37.9%), sinker (49.5%), slider (43.9%), cutter (43.0%), splitter (47.8%).

So much for the idea that fewer sinkers led to fewer grounders. Well, no, that is true to a certain extent for Samardzija, but the ground ball inducing ability took a step back with all five of his pitches last season. That is tied to the velocity loss at least somewhat. How much, exactly? I don’t think we can say.

Cutters have a reputation for sapping arm strength — Eno Sarris wrote a great piece about this back in April — and I guess there’s something to the idea of scaling back on Samardzija’s cutter usage going forward. That could lead to increased effectiveness overall and maybe a slight bump in velocity, but I don’t think we can say that with any certainty.

For the sake of completeness, let’s look at the swing-and-miss rates of Samardzija’s various pitches, once again with the help of Brooks Baseball:

MLB Averages: Four-seam (6.9%), sinker (5.4%), slider (15.2%), cutter (9.7%), splitter (14.9%).

Samardzija’s four-seamer is a great swing-and-miss pitch. It was this past season even with that lost velocity. There’s something to be said for having the ability to throw a fastball by a hitter. It’s a great skill to have. Samardzija also gets a better than average whiff rate on his sinker and cutter, but the slider and splitter? Comfortably below average.

Lefties hit Samardzija hard this past season and the swing-and-miss rate on his splitter dropped off big time. I’m guessing those two things are related. Is it possible the reduced effectiveness of the split-finger fastball is tied to the increased cutter usage? Sure. It takes (slightly) different mechanics to throw different pitches, and suddenly throwing more cutters than ever could have affected his other pitches.

One thing we have to keep in mind: Samardzija still has pretty nasty stuff. He still throws very hard despite the velocity loss, he uses five pitches regularly, and he misses bats with his fastball. This isn’t a guy going out there with Freddy Garcia stuff.

Injury History

Samardzija has never been hurt in his pro career. Not even in the minors. No arm injuries, no pulled hamstrings, no stubbed toes, nothing. He’s a big — listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 lbs. — strong guy and an incredible athlete, all of which points to durability. Any pitcher can get hurt at any time, but there’s nothing in Samardzija’s history that will make you cringe.

Furthermore, Samardzija turns 31 in January but he has significantly fewer innings on his arm than the other top free agent starters. He split his time between football and baseball in college, and he spent the 2008-11 seasons working mostly in relief with the Cubs. Buster Only (subs. req’d) had a great little nugget in yesterday’s blog post.

Among the upper-tier starting pitchers in this year’s free-agent class, Samardzija has easily thrown the fewest pitches in the majors, partly because he served as a reliever his first four years with the Cubs. Here’s where he compares with other top free-agent starters in total MLB pitches during the regular season:

Zack Greinke: 33,189 pitches
Johnny Cueto: 22,786
David Price: 22,724
Jordan Zimmermann: 16,793
Jeff Samardzija: 15,906

Greinke is the oldest of the group by several years, hence that big workload. Price and Cueto have been workhorses throughout their careers, so it makes sense they’re essentially tied for second. Zimmerman has thrown more pitches than Samardzija despite missing a season due to Tommy John surgery.

All pitchers have wear and tear on their arms by time they reach their 30th birthday and Samardzija is no exception, but his arm has not endured the workload of other top free agent starters because he split his time between two sports as an amateur and spent significant time as a reliever after first reaching the show. That may mean he’ll hold his stuff into his mid-30s, a little longer than you’d normally expect.

Loose Yankees Ties

Two of the reasons the Yankees have been connected to Samardzija are pitching coach Larry Rothschild and special advisor Jim Hendry. Rothschild was Samardzija’s first pitching coach with the Cubs and Hendry originally drafted, signed, and developed Samardzija when he was Cubs GM. So the Yankees have some firsthand knowledge of him.

That said, Rothschild only spent parts of three seasons with Samardzija, and he wasn’t moved into the rotation until two years after Rothschild left the Cubs. Hendry was fired as Cubs GM the year before Samardzija moved into the rotation. The relationships might not be as close as you’d expect. If nothing else, Rothschild and Hendry should be able to give the Yankees some knowledge about Samardzija as a person. His work ethic, that sort of stuff.

Contract Projections

The White Sox made Samardzija the qualifying offer last week and I expect him to reject it before Friday’s deadline, even after his down year. Samardzija should have no trouble beating that $15.8M guarantee on the open market. I know the pitching class is deep and there are plenty of alternatives, but basically every team besides the Mets is looking for rotation help this winter. The demand is still greater than the supply. Samardzija will get his.

Anyway, in addition to a hefty contract, whoever signs Samardzija will have to forfeit their highest unprotected draft pick thanks to the qualifying offer. For the Yankees, that is their first rounder, tentatively scheduled to be No. 22 overall. Here are some contract projections for Samardzija:

MLB Trade Rumors: Five years, $80M.
FanGraphs Crowdsourcing: Approximately four years, $70M.
Jon Heyman: Five years, $85M.

Based on those three, Samardzija is expected to receive roughly $17M a year for four or five years. That’s basically the A.J. Burnett contract (five years, $82.5M), which is fitting because Samardzija and Burnett can both tantalize you with their stuff and frustrate you with their results.

Remember though, it has been seven years since Burnett sign his contract with the Yankees. The market has changed a lot since then. Paying a starter $17M a year now is not the same as doing it back then. Back in 2009 only four pitchers had contracts with an average annual value of $16M+. This past season 18 pitchers had a contract worth that much annually. So yeah.

Wrapping Up

Samardzija’s best attribute is his durability. He’s never been hurt, he’s logged 210+ innings in each of the last three years, his arm is fresh, and he consistently pitches deep into games. Samardzija completed seven innings in 19 of his 32 starts this past season. The Yankees as a team had their starter complete seven innings only 35 times in 2015.

Also, Samardzija’s stuff took a slight step back this past season, though it could be tied to his increased cutter usage. He still flashes brilliance and dominates on occasion. Samardzija had four starts with a 75+ Game Score this season. The Yankees as a team had ten. Lots of innings and occasional brilliance doesn’t equal an ace, but I don’t think anyone is looking at Samardzija as an ace anyway. Four or five years and $17M per year isn’t ace money anymore.

At this point I think Samardzija is what he is. Signing him and expecting his game to take a significant step forward probably isn’t realistic. He might — I think he will, not might — be better than he was this year simply because he figures to have a more competent defense behind him going forward, but I wouldn’t count on ever seeing the 2014 Samardzija again either. He’s talented and durable and the results leave you wanting more.

The Yankees love big power pitchers who don’t walk anyone — I think Samardzija’s improved walk rate the last two years is the result of an athletic pitcher getting locked into his mechanics — and Samardzija fits the bill. He’s also played for a team in a big market with intense media in the Cubs — shouldn’t his Notre Dame football experience count too? — and has an old school give me the damn ball bulldog mentality.

“Back in the day, the game was left in the starter’s hands,” said Samardzija to David Laurila in July 2014. “If the starter pitched well, he was given his 120 pitches. The game was decided by the starting pitchers. It’s different now and I think that’s unfortunate. When you get into tough situations, regardless of your pitch count, a lot of times a reliever is brought in. I understand why – it’s to preserve the game — but you have to keep your relievers’ arms fresh too. I like the idea of the starters deciding what happens in the game.”

I think the Yankees can use rotation help, and I’m sure if you gave the front office a truth serum, they’d say they want to find a way to upgrade the starting staff as well. If nothing else, it would be nice to have one guy you could count on to chew innings every fifth day, right? Asking the bullpen to get 10-12 outs a night is no way to go through a season (again). Samardzija can give you those innings.

Sinking four or five years and $17M annually into Samardzija to be an innings dude who is ideally your second or third best starter might be tough to swallow, but I think it is fair market value. If the Yankees intend to avoid huge money free agent contracts — like the one David Price will get, for example — Samardzija might just be their best option in free agency.

The Competing Alternatives

October 18, 2015 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

In a vacuum, it’s never a bad thing to go into a season with more than five options to fill out a team’s starting rotation. After all, how many times have we heard the line, “There’s no such thing as too much pitching” thrown about? It’s a cliche that is true; having “too many pitchers” from which to shape a rotation is like having “too much” pizza. But that is only true in a vacuum, not reality. What if it’s too much Pizza Hut/Domino’s/Papa John’s? We could certainly argue that one slice of that “pizza” is already too much. And in baseball reality as opposed to a baseball vacuum, having lots of pitchers doesn’t necessarily mean you have lots of good pitchers. So stand the (potential) 2016 New York Yankees.

Given the end of the 2015 season, the Yankees have no fewer than seven pitchers who could all lay some claim to spots in the starting rotation. Of course, given their contracts, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia aren’t leaving that rotation any time soon. Nathan Eovaldi, returning from injury, impressed in the second half and he’ll likely round out the rotation’s top three. He’ll be followed by the sometimes big Michael Pineda in the fourth spot and Luis Severino, who proved he belonged in the Majors during the second half, will finish out the five. No one, however, makes it through a season with only five starters, so we’ve got to consider Ivan Nova and Adam Warren as other options in the rotation. Every single one of these pitchers has some sort of question mark as we move to 2016.

All of those pitchers, save for Warren and Severino, spent time on the Major League disabled list at some point in 2015 and there’s a good bet that Tanaka, Sabathia, and Pineda hit the DL at some point in 2016 (though you could say this about any pitcher who’s ever picked up a baseball). Aside from that, there’s the performance concern with Eovaldi and Severino. While they certainly shined in the second half, can they repeat it? Eovaldi’s got a whole bunch of innings that don’t look like the ones he compiled after his disaster start in Miami and Severino is still in his early 20’s with big potential, but also big bust potential (stop me if you’ve heard the one about young Yankee starters not living up to their promise with the organization). This is all a roundabout way of saying that the Yankees would be wise to go shopping for a starting pitcher–either by free agency or trade–once the World Series ends. Predicting the trade market is hard and, remember, your trade proposal sucks, so let’s just focus on three free agent starters that I’m sure will be a frequent topic of conversation ’round these parts in the next few weeks: David Price, Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.

Price is the obvious number one choice here. He’s a big lefty who’s shown he can hack it in the American League for a long time and the Yankees love that. Zimmerman is a big righty who’s thrown no fewer than 195 innings since 2012 and has excellent control. Samardzija, as he has been previously, has already been linked to the Yankees and is a potential reclamation projects, something the Yankees also love.

I hate this. (Elsa/Getty) — Price. (Getty)

In that old, familiar vacuum, Price is the guy the Yankees want, need, and sign; he’s almost too perfect for them not to. But in that old, familiar reality, there are two big roadblocks to price: time and money. It’s highly likely that the front office and/or ownership will view a potential big contract for Price as just another CC Sabathia contract: pretty great at first and then an absolute disaster by the midway point.

With Zimmerman, there’s likely to be a draft pick issue: do they want to give up a draft pick for Not The Best Guy Available? There’s also the fact that Zimmerman will likely demand a huge price tag, which his performance may not live up to. Don’t get me wrong here as Zimmerman is a very good pitcher, but he’s been “up and down” (though all good) in the last few years. He’s got two dominant ones–2012 and 2014–and two seasons that are “only” above average-good (2013, 2015). The Yankees may balk at Zimmerman’s (potential) salary demands if they don’t think he’s capable of being that 2012/2014 guy more often.

Then there’s Samardzija. Like Zimmerman, he may have draft pick compensation tied to him. Like Zimmerman, and to a greater extent than Zimmerman, there are most definitely performance concerns with him. After all, he just had his worst professional season in which his strikeout rate dropped 5.1% from the year before and his groundball rate plummeted to below 40%. Despite that, there is a ‘bang for your buck’ factor with Shark if he signs a pillow contract to see him through to the next offseason.

These guys all come with some risk, but we could argue it’s less collective risk than the risk represented by the pitchers currently in the Yankees’ employ. One of them–or any of the other free agents I didn’t list here–is a necessity, though. The 2015 Yankee rotation is not sustainable for 2016, even with great bullpen management by Joe Girardi. Each of these guys could be the wrong option for the listed reasons, but they could also be the right guy for the listed reason. Though he’s not the best of the bunch, Zimmerman probably represents the best option for the Yankees. He’s more of a sure thing that Samardzija and is likely to be less costly–both in terms of years and money–than David Price.

Ironically enough, though, after all these words, I wouldn’t be surprised if neither of these three guys landed in the Bronx for 2016 and beyond. I might be a touch disappointed, but I wouldn’t necessarily be shocked either. Whether it’s these guys or others, however, the Yankees need to do something to bolster the rotation going forward, even if there are a lot of options already in house. Because you can never have too much pitching.

Heyman: Yankees likely to pursue Jeff Samardzija as a free agent this offseason

October 13, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

This doesn’t surprise me. According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have “real interest” in impending free agent Jeff Samardzija and are likely to pursue the right-hander this offseason. The free agent signing period opens five days after the end of the World Series, so sometime in early-November.

Samardzija, 30, had a miserable walk year in 2015, pitching to a 4.96 ERA (4.23 FIP) in 32 starts and 214 innings for the White Sox. Even with the poor season, I expect the ChiSox to make Samardzija a qualifying offer, meaning he’ll cost a draft pick to sign. Bringing him back on a one-year, $15.8M contract wouldn’t be the end of the world for Chicago. They could always trade him if they won’t want him at that price. Someone would take him.

There’s a few reasons why I say Heyman’s report isn’t surprising. For starters, the Yankees have had interest in Samardzija dating back to at least the 2013 Winter Meetings, so this isn’t coming out of nowhere. There are also several ties to Samardzija in the organization. Larry Rothschild was his first big league pitching coach with the Cubs and special advisor Jim Hendry originally drafted Samardzija during his time as Cubs GM.

Samardzija had a rough year in 2015, no doubt about it, but he was excellent as recently as 2014 (2.99 ERA and 3.20 FIP). He’s also a workhorse, throwing at least 213 innings in each of the last three seasons. He had 19 starts of at least seven innings this summer. The Yankees had 35 (!) as a team. Wouldn’t it nice to have one guy who didn’t tax the bullpen every time out? Everyone once in a while Samardzija does this too:

Heyman says the Yankees like Samardzija for a few reasons, most notably his potential and competitiveness. I’ll add that he throws hard (averaged 94.2 mph in 2015), he never walks anyone (5.4%), and he’s a big dude (listed at 6-foot-5, 225 lbs.). Those are three traits the Yankees love. Just look at their pitching staff. Huge guys who throw hard and throw a lot of strikes are their thing.

At this point, I think Samardzija is what is his. Guys who don’t fulfill their potential by time they reach their 30th birthday usually don’t ever get there. That doesn’t mean he’s bad! He was bad this year but not the few years before that. Samardzija probably won’t ever be an ace, but he can be a good and occasionally great innings-eater. The Yankees could use someone like that.

The qualifying offer could really throw a wrench into things because I don’t think the Yankees will forfeit a first round pick to sign any non-Jason Heyward free agent this offseason. They’re likely looking at Samardzija as a bounceback candidate, a one-year contract guy who can prove himself and try again on the open market next winter. I can’t imagine they like the idea of a long-term deal. We’ll see.