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Luis Severino to start 2018 AL Wild Card Game

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(Presswire)

It is official: Luis Severino will start the 2018 AL Wild Card Game tomorrow night. Aaron Boone made the announcement at this afternoon’s workout at Yankee Stadium. “I think he’s ready for this. Hopefully he can get us off to a good start tomorrow. When he’s pitching at his best, he’ll be the best pitcher on the field tomorrow,” said Boone.

Severino last pitched last Tuesday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game on seven days rest. He’s thrown two bullpens since then to prepare for tomorrow’s start. The Yankees skipped Severino’s start Sunday — he didn’t even throw a token tune-up inning or anything — which was a pretty good indication he would get the ball in the Wild Card Game.

“It means a lot that they trust me,” Severino said this afternoon. “I feel rested. I feel like I can do a good job … I just want to win. If I go four innings and the bullpen comes in and gets it done, (I don’t care). I just want to win and move on.”

Three weeks ago RAB readers picked Masahiro Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game, but that was three weeks ago. Things change. I felt the Yankees wanted to start Severino in the Wild Card Game all along, and, after closing out the regular season with two strong starts, he made it an easy call for the brain trust. The Yankees are going with their most talented pitcher.

Severino of course started the Wild Card Game last season, and it was a disaster. Three runs and one out. The 2018 Athletics are much better than the 2017 Twins, and the A’s did put a hurtin’ on Severino last month (six runs in 2.2 innings), but he is the Yankees’ best chance at a dominant bat-missing start. How long will his leash be? I guess we’ll find out.

The Yankees and Athletics do not have to submit their official Wild Card Game rosters until tomorrow morning. Here are some other notes from today’s workout:

  • Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn will all be on the Wild Card Game roster, Boone announced. They’re going to carry ten pitchers. Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade will be on the roster as well. Wade will be the designated pinch-runner. Based on the math, it appears Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes will not be on the Wild Card Game roster.
  • Stephen Tarpley is still with the Yankees — that’s not nothing, most September call-ups are sent home after the end of the regular season — and he told Lindsey Adler he does not expect to be on the Wild Card Game roster. He is likely to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees advance, however. That makes sense. Matt Olson is the only LOOGY worthy hitter in the A’s lineup and he’d be lifted for pinch-hitter Mark Canha (152 wRC+ vs. LHP).
  • Sonny Gray is not on the Wild Card Game roster. “I’m just hanging out,” he told Susan Slusser. No surprise here. Gray pitched too poorly for too long to be on the roster. That said, he’ll remain with the Yankees in case an injury replacement is needed at some point this postseason.

Based on today’s information, it appears this will be the 25-man roster the Yankees take into the Wild Card Game. Again, the official roster does not have to be submitted until tomorrow morning.

Catchers (3) Infielders (7) Outfielders (5) Starters (4) Relievers (6)
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Gregorius Hicks Lynn Britton
Higashioka Hechavarria Judge Severino Chapman
Torres McCutchen Tanaka Green
Voit Stanton Holder
Wade Robertson
Walker

The Athletics have not yet announced their starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game — we should find that out later today, when they have their workout at Yankee Stadium — though all indications are they will bullpen the game. Liam Hendriks is the obvious candidate to be the opener.

Update: Hendriks is indeed starting (opening) for the Athletics tomorrow, the team announced. It’s likely to be a one inning and done appearance like pretty much all his starts down the stretch.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

The Yankees still have some things to accomplish even after clinching a postseason spot

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(Presswire)

Saturday night, the Yankees clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a thrilling walk-off win against Orioles. Well, maybe thrilling isn’t the best way to put it. The game was pretty dull up until Aaron Hicks yanked his walk-off double into the right field corner in the 11th inning. That was fun. The rest of the game? Meh.

Anyway, the Yankees are indeed going back to the postseason. They’re locked into the Wild Card Game because the Red Sox have already clinched the AL East title, so that’s a bummer, but at least the Yankees are in. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. The Yankees will be one of the final ten teams standing. That’s pretty cool.

Now, just because the Yankees are locked into the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean they can coast during this final week of the regular season. Well, they could, but I wouldn’t advise it. There are still some things to accomplish and some boxes to check this week. Here are five.

Clinch homefield advantage

Fun fact: The home team is 5-7 in the Wild Card Game all-time. That said, I can’t imagine any fan wants their team to play on the road in the Wild Card Game. Teams are built for their home ballparks and few teams are built as well for their home ballpark as the Yankees. The home/record records:

Yankees at home: 53-28 (+101 run differential)
Yankees on the road: 43-32 (+64 run differential)

Athletics at home: 50-31 (+59 run differential)
Athletics on the road: 45-31 (+77 run differential)

The Yankees are a good team on the road and a great team at home. And the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The Twins sold at the trade deadline last year and still made the postseason because the rest of the American League stunk. They made the postseason by default. This year’s Athletics are an excellent team and no pushover. The Yankees will need as much help as they can get in that Wild Card Game, and that includes the short porch and the Yankee Stadium crowd. The magic number for homefield advantage is four.

(Also, clinching homefield advantage means avoiding a brutal travel schedule. If the Wild Card Game is in Oakland, the Yankees have have to travel from Boston to Oakland after the end of the regular season, then potentially go right back to Boston if they advance to the ALDS. Making a round trip cross country to play one game? No. Just no.)

Pick a Wild Card Game starter

The Yankees are in a good spot when it comes to picking a starting pitcher for next Wednesday’s Wild Card Game. They have three good candidates in J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka. I would much rather have one great candidate like first half Severino than three good candidates, but I can’t complain. I’ll feel pretty good — as good as you can feel in that situation, anyway — no matter who gets the ball.

“We will pick whoever is best qualified at that time, regardless of the following series,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera over the weekend when asked about the Wild Card Game starter. “It’s all hands on deck for that one game, to find a way to survive it … Whatever is in our best interest, we’ll try to do.”

Two weeks ago RAB readers said Tanaka should start the Wild Card Game. Happ would be a fine choice as well. Severino? If he continues to pitch like he did last time out, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to give the ball to someone else. Whoever it ends up being, the Yankees have to make a decision reasonably soon, and get that pitcher lined up on however many days rest (normal rest? an extra day?) this week.

Get Judge at-bats and Chapman innings

In seven games back in the starting lineup, Judge is 4-for-22 (.182) with six walks (.357 OBP) with seven strikeouts. The plate discipline is still there — the loss makes it easy to forget, but Judge’s ten-pitch battle against Eduardo Rodriguez that turned an 0-2 count into a walk before Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Thursday was a masterful at-bat — but the timing is not. He looks like a hitter who missed closed to two months.

Judge has put 15 balls in play since returning as a hitter and he has more fly balls and line drives (eight) than grounders and pop-ups (seven), so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with much authority. He roped a 112.1 mph line drive in his first at-bat back. Since then he has only five 90+ mph batted balls, and his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph. His spray chart with exit velocities:

Yeah, not great. Judge has swung through some hittable fastballs since returning, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. He had a long layoff and jumping straight from batting practice and simulated games to live MLB pitching ain’t easy. That’s why Judge needs as many at-bats as possible the rest of the season. There’s a delicate balance here because the Yankees don’t want to overload the wrist, but yeah, Judge needs at-bats.

As for Chapman, he’s made three appearances since returning, two good and one not-so-good. His command was nonexistent — similar to Judge, Chapman not having good command after a month on the shelf isn’t surprising — in his first game back, and his velocity was down the last two times out. In fact, his 96.3 mph average fastball velocity Saturday was his slowest average fastball since June 2012.

“I felt good. The speed wasn’t where it usually is, but my command was much better and that’s really important,” said Chapman to Dan Martin over the weekend. “(The velocity being down) doesn’t worry me at all. I know the speed is there. It’s just a matter of getting out there and my getting rhythm back. Maybe after two more outings I’ll be back to being the pitcher I’ve been.”

Seeing Chapman sit mid-90s rather than upper-90s/low-100s can be alarming, though in this case, I’m not worried. He missed a month and is still rebuilding arm strength. Two bullpen sessions and one simulated game wasn’t going to get him back into midseason form. The Yankees have six games remaining and, since Chapman pitched yesterday, it seems he has three appearances remaining at most. He and Judge need reps this last week to get back to where the Yankees need they them to be going into October.

Rest whoever’s hurting

Well, the Yankees were in good shape health-wise up until two days ago. Now Didi Gregorius has torn cartilage in his wrist and Aaron Hicks has a tight hamstring. Both are day-to-day at this point. Gregorius will be reevaluated tomorrow and Hicks is going for an MRI today. If all goes well, both could return to the lineup later this week. I sure hope that happens. Aside from Didi and Hicks, the Yanks are healthy.

Does that mean everyone on the roster is 100%? Oh hell no. No one is 100% in September. Everyone’s nursing something. Stanton’s still dealing with his tight hamstring. Brett Gardner’s been icing his right knee after games on-and-off for a few weeks now. Dellin Betances has that cut on his finger that keeps opening up. He says it doesn’t affect his pitching, but he seems to be bleeding every time he’s on the mound, and that can’t be fun.

Point is, some players are nursing injuries, and if the Yankees can get them some extra rest and extra treatment in hopes of getting them healthy for the postseason, they should do it. There’s a balance that has to be struck, for sure. The Yankees can’t go into hangover mode just yet because they need to secure homefield advantage, but if there’s an opportunity to deal with those aches and pains, they should do it.

Prepare regulars for postseason roles

Inevitably, some players will see their roles changed in October. Lance Lynn is probably going to move to the bullpen, for example. He pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason plenty with the Cardinals, so it’s a role he’s familiar with, but it still would be good to give him a tune-up game in relief before the season ends, you know? You don’t want him doing it for the first time in a potential elimination game.

Gardner had been relegated to bench duty before Hicks got hurt last night, and if Hicks returns later this week, it stands to reason Gardner will be the designated pinch-runner in the postseason. Do you know how long it’s been since Gardner pinch-ran? Last June. He’s pinch-run five times total since 2012. It’s not a role he’s familiar with and it’s not easy to come off the bench cold like that. A few tune-up pinch-running appearances this week would be worthwhile, assuming Hicks returns.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Also, with Gardner in center/on the bench, Andrew McCutchen is now the everyday left fielder, and he has 59 career big league innings in left field. All 59 have come within the last two weeks. He’s still learning the position — McCutchen’s looked fine out there overall but has taken some interesting routes at times, which is to be expected — and the more time the Yankees give him out there, the more comfortable he’ll be.

There are some other minor considerations here as well. Will Greg Bird make the postseason roster, even as a bench bat? If yes, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him some at-bats this final week. Are Chad Green and David Robertson (and Zach Britton?) going to be multi-inning options in the postseason? Making sure they’re sufficiently stretched out seems worthwhile. Little things like this will help get the Yankees ready for October.

* * *

A case can be made the Yankees should give Justus Sheffield a chance to show he belongs on the postseason roster this week, though, realistically, I don’t think there’s enough time for that to happen. Best case scenario this week is three appearances, right? How well would Sheffield have to pitch in those three appearances to get the nod on the postseason roster? There are too many guys ahead of him on the depth chart, I think, but I do hope to see Sheffield pitch a bunch this week.

The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason, so they know they’re in. Now they have to clinch homefield advantage and make sure the Wild Card Game is in New York. They also have to get their players ready for the postseason, which means picking a Wild Card Game starter, getting Judge and Chapman ready, and preparing players for their October roles. The Yankees know they’re going to the postseason. Their work during the regular season isn’t done yet though.

The Yankees were active at the trade deadline and so far all their moves are having a big impact

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Cutch. (Presswire)

At some point soon, possibly before the end of the homestand, the Yankees will clinch a spot in the postseason. They’re not going to win the AL East — the Yankees need to go no worse than 10-1 the rest of the way while the Red Sox go 0-10 for that to happen — so a spot in the Wild Card Game will have to do. That’s okay. Just get in and you can win.

The Yankees have the third best record in baseball and they’re going to return to the postseason for a lot of reasons, including this year’s trade deadline pickups. The incumbents have been pretty good! But they needed help, so Brian Cashman and his staff were very active prior to both the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. They imported:

  • Two new starting pitchers (J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn).
  • A new first baseman (Luke Voit).
  • Another late-inning reliever (Zach Britton).
  • A new leadoff hitter and corner outfielder (Andrew McCutchen).

The Yankees also added a new utility infielder (Adeiny Hechavarria) and gobs of international bonus money at the deadline(s), though those are relatively minor additions. The other moves were much more significant. The Yankees turned over 40% of the rotation, two starting lineup spots, and added another end-game arm.

And, so far, just about all of those moves are paying big dividends. Lynn has been more serviceable than good, but, considering who he replaced (Sonny Gray), serviceable qualifies as a big upgrade. Happ has been outstanding in eight of his nine starts, including two nights ago against the Red Sox. Voit socked two more dingers last night and has nine in 29 games with the Yankees.

I don’t know whether they’d admit it, but I know Cashman and Aaron Boone and everyone else in the organization did not expect Voit to have this much impact. If they did, he wouldn’t have been sent to Triple-A Scranton (twice). Greg Bird was struggling, Voit got an opportunity, and he’s run with it. Voit went from first base platoon option to full-time first baseman. He’s given the lineup a huge lift.

Britton had a rocky start to his Yankees tenure but has really settled in lately. He’s allowed three runs (two earned) in his last 13 appearances and 14 innings while holding opponents to a .149/.180/.213 batting line. Britton has an 80.6% ground ball rate with the Yankees. That works out to 50 ground balls and 12 non-ground balls among 62 balls in play. He came in handy when Aroldis Chapman went down.

To me, McCutchen has been every bit as important as Happ and Voit and Britton. He only just got here, I know, but the Yankees had a revolving door in right field while Aaron Judge was on the disabled list, and McCutchen put an end to that. Now, with Judge back, he’s slid over to left field to replace the ineffective Brett Gardner, giving the Yankees another offensive threat. I love Gardner, he’s been a great Yankee, but it wasn’t working and a change had to made.

Last night McCutchen reached base three times in the blowout win over the Red Sox and he’s reached base 24 times in his last eleven games. The batting average is still a little low (.216), but McCutchen owns a .414 OBP as a Yankees, and that has been a game-changer atop the lineup. The leadoff spot (mostly Gardner) had a .205/.319/.298 (72 wRC+) batting line in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 31st. Can’t have that. McCutchen fixed it.

“It doesn’t have to be splashy. It just has to work,” said Cashman following the July 31st deadline. And so far, every just about every move the Yankees made has worked. Happ has steadied the rotation and forms a potentially very good postseason front three with the locked in Masahiro Tanaka and the seemingly rejuvenated Luis Severino. Britton makes the bullpen better and McCutchen and Voit have made the lineup that much deeper.

Keep in mind that, unlike some other teams, the Yankees were active at the trade deadline because they had to be. The Red Sox were in great shape and were able to add pieces like Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler to make their roster even better. The Yankees were more desperate for upgrades. Judge was hurt, Gray and Domingo German were becoming untenable, so was Bird, and Chapman’s achy knee was in the back of everyone’s mind. These were “we really need these guys to contend” moves. Not just upgrades to the fringes of the roster, you know?

Unlike last year, when they targeted players with long-term control, the Yankees focused on rentals this year. That’s probably just a coincidence given the way he market shook out, though I wonder whether getting burned by Gray (and Tommy Kahnle, to some degree) led to the Yankees looking for lower cost short-term moves. Either way, it’s worked quite well. The Yankees don’t really miss anyone they gave up — maybe they will one day, but right now? nah — and the players they received have all become important contributors. The trade deadline was a smashing success.

Yankeemetrics: Gleyber Day Weekend (Aug. 31-Sept. 2)

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(Newsday)

Bad Dellin
Even in a season in which they’re on pace for their best record in a decade, the Yankees continue to find new ways to lose games. On Thursday night they suffered one of the most shocking upsets of the season as they coughed up a two-run cushion in the top of the ninth inning and lost 8-7 to the Tigers.

It was the first time they lost a home game they led by multiple runs at the start of the ninth since August 27, 2012 against the Blue Jays. Every other team had at least one such loss in that span. Going back further, the only other time in the last 15 seasons — since 2004 — that the Yankees lost a game in the Bronx they led by at least two runs entering the ninth was June 28, 2012 vs the White Sox.

J.A. Happ threw his worst start in pinstripes, allowing five runs on 10 hits, including three game-changing homers. It’s hard to do all that while getting no more than 13 outs. The last Yankee to give up at least 10 hits, five runs and three bombs in an outing of 4 1/3 innings or fewer was Carl Pavano on May 11, 2005. Ugh.

Giancarlo Stanton had a historic night as he finally went deep for his 300th career home run, a two-run shot in the third inning that gave the Yankees a brief 2-1 lead. He became the fifth-fastest to reach the mark in terms of games (1,119).

Stanton is also in an exclusive club in terms of his age and power/on-base ability. Among right-handed batters, the only other players to compile at least 300 homers and an OBP of .350 or better through their age-28 season are Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Jimmie Foxx.

The goat of the game was Dellin Betances, who surrendered consecutive home runs in the ninth inning as a 7-5 advantage quickly became an 8-7 loss. This was the first time in his career he allowed multiple homers in a game. Obscure Yankeemetric Alert: Since 1925, only one other Yankee pitcher allowed back-to-back game-tying and go-ahead homers in the ninth inning of a game: Catfish Hunter on April 18, 1976 against the Minnesota Twins. Betances had been lights-out over the past three months before Thursday’s implosion:

Dellin Betances Since May 27
IP R HR Batters
Faced
Thursday 1 3 2 6
Previous 35 Games 33.2 2 1 129

Early Gleyber Day Celebration
The Yankees rebounded from Thursday’s crushing loss with another crazy comeback win on Friday. They finished August with a 17-13 (.567) record, which was their worst monthly record of the season — but that still put them in elite company. The last time the Yankees had a win percentage of .567 or better in each of the first five months of the season (combining March/April) was 1998.

Down 3-0 and without a hit through the first 5 1/3 innings, the Yankees exploded for four runs over a four-batter span in the sixth thanks to a trio of homers — a two-run shot by Brett Gardner that cut the deficit to 3-2, a game-tying solo homer by Aaron Hicks and a go-ahead blast from Miguel Andujar. Andujar’s dinger was his fifth that either tied the game or gave the team a lead in the sixth inning or later, which leads all Yankees. Oh and he put himself on this graphic too:

The Yankees would need another rally, however, after Zach Britton suffered a meltdown as he tried to protect the one-run lead, yielding a game-tying single in the seventh and a sac fly in the eighth. It was the first time in his career as a reliever that he surrendered a go-ahead sacrifice fly.

Britton was saved from goat status by the clutch hitting of Gleyber Torres, who delivered a game-winning bases-loaded two-run single in the eighth inning. It was his fifth game-tying/go-ahead hit in the eighth inning or later, the most on the Yankees this season.

(AP)

Two is enough
The comeback mojo continued on Saturday as the Yankees overcame another sluggish start offensively and rallied to win, 2-1, despite getting only two hits. This is the third time in the last three seasons they’ve won a game with no more than two hits; before this stretch, it hadn’t happened since 1994.

Oh, and there’s this stat too: Their three wins with two hits or fewer since the start of 2016 are the most of any team.

But what made this win so unique is the fact that the Yankees also struck out 10 times. Obscure Yankeemetric alert! Saturday was the 18th time since 1908 (as far back as we have complete boxscore data) that they won a game with two or fewer hits, but it was the first time they also had double-digit strikeouts.

For the second straight night their first hit was a game-changing homer, this time it was a two-run blast in the fifth inning by Gleyber Torres. His 22 homers are the most in Major-League history by a second baseman age 21 or younger in a single season.

Masahiro Tanaka battled through a shaky first inning during which he loaded the bases with no outs and escaped with only one run on the scoreboard. His ability to pitch out of tough situations and limit the damage has been an underrated part of Tanaka’s season. He’s held batters to a .100 batting average (4-for-40) with runners in scoring position and two outs, fourth-best among MLB starters (min. 40 batters faced), behind a trio of Cy Young contenders: Blake Snell (.063), Chris Sale (.073) and Aaron Nola (.094).

(Getty)

Not enough muscle
The Yankees finished off their homestand with a dud, an 11-7 loss that featured a bunch of heart-wrenching warning-track outs but ultimately too many big deficits to overcome. The Yankees were 33-13 at home in the first half of the season; since the break, they are just 15-11 in the Bronx, and 23 of the 26 matchups have come against teams that entered gameday with a sub-.500 record.

Lance Lynn was awful again, getting rocked for six runs before he was yanked in the fourth inning. His last four starts have been a disaster, especially when compared to the promise he showed in his first three appearances as a Yankee:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs WHIP
Last 4 Games 18.2 19 1.98
First 3 Games 16.2 1 0.96

Miguel Andujar went 3-for-4 with a double, pushing his batting average up to .301 and his slugging percentage up to .530. The only Yankee rookie in franchise history to finish a season with at least a .300 batting average and a .530 slugging percentage (min. 300 PA) was Joe DiMaggio in 1936 (.323 BA, .576 SLG).

September call-ups are right around the corner, so it’s time to talk about a six-man rotation again

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Starting tomorrow the 30 MLB teams will be allowed to expand their active roster from 25 players to as many as 40 players. No more worrying about running out of relievers or using an emergency catcher or anything like that. Reinforcements are on the way. The Yankees have called up lots of players on September 1st in recent years and I have no reason to think this year will be any different.

Expanded rosters create flexibility and a chance for creativity, and, with the Yankees, the talk always seems to center around a six-man rotation. They’ve made it clear they value giving their starters extra rest whenever possible. A six-man rotation is tough to do from April through August — a six-man rotation means a seven-man bullpen and a three-man bench, or an eight-man bullpen or a two-man bench — but September? Piece of cake.

The Yankees, perhaps moreso than at any point in the last four or five years, are well-positioned to use a six-man rotation in September. That’s because they actually have six viable big league starters, or thereabouts. It can be a challenge finding five big leaguer starters sometimes. Right now, the rotation depth chart looks something like this:

  1. Luis Severino
  2. Masahiro Tanaka
  3. CC Sabathia
  4. J.A. Happ
  5. Lance Lynn
  6. Sonny Gray
  7. Luis Cessa
  8. Domingo German
  9. Jonathan Loaisiga

Don’t get too caught up in the 1-5 order. Those guys are the top five starters. The order doesn’t really matter. Gray is the obvious sixth man, Cessa has been the primary spot starter, then German and Loaisiga fall into place at the end there. Aside from Cessa, who’s been up-and-down all year, the other three guys all held down a rotation spot at some point earlier season.

Gray pitched very well last weekend, but it was against the Orioles, and they stink. Maybe he truly has turned a corner. I’m not falling for it again though. He’s going to have to do it again (and again and again) for me to buy in. The Yankees could go with Sonny as a sixth starter in September though. It is an option. If not him, German and Loaisiga could be options, ditto Cessa. That’s a pretty good crop of sixth starter candidates, I’d say.

The No. 1 benefit of the six-man rotation is extra rest. Sabathia, Tanaka, Happ, and especially Severino all get a little late season breather heading into the postseason. Improved performance is part of it as well, though that can sometimes be more theoretical than reality. The 2018 numbers real quick:

Regular Rest Extra Rest
Gray (as SP) 50.1 IP, 3.40 ERA, .634 OPS 59.2 IP, 6.79 ERA, .868 OPS
Happ 51.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, .672 OPS 92.2 IP, 4.37 ERA, .646 OPS
Lynn 54 IP, 5.83 ERA, .814 OPS 75.2 IP, 4.40 ERA, .711 OPS
Sabathia 67.2 IP, 3.46 ERA, .674 OPS 57.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, .734 OPS
Severino 81.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, .664 OPS 83.3 IP, 3.33 ERA, .661 OPS
Tanaka 34 IP, 3.71 ERA, .689 OPS 93 IP, 4.06 ERA, .744 OPS

There’s no pattern there. It’s almost like weird and different things can happen in relatively small sample sizes. Extra rest improves performance on a league average level — the league average is a 4.41 ERA on normal rest and a 4.25 ERA with extra rest — but, individually, who knows? Every pitcher is different. Some guys benefit (Lynn, Sabathia), some guys don’t (Gray, Happ, Tanaka), and for some guys it doesn’t mater at all (Severino).

Going to a six-man rotation and expecting better performance is kind of a fool’s errand. The extra rest does equal less wear and tear though, that is undeniable — throw fewer pitches and there’s less fatigue — it’s just a question of whether the extra rest now equals improved performance down the road, specifically in the postseason. Every player is beat up and running on fumes in September. Anything to give your horses a little breather seems worthwhile.

The upside here is more rest for the regular starters late in the season. The downside is more starts for your sixth starter and fewer starts for your top starters, which could hurt the team overall. Then again, we’re only talking about three or four starters here, so it might not be a huge deal. My guess is the Yankees will stick with a five-man rotation for at least a few weeks. They haven’t clinched anything yet and it’s too soon to go into cruise control.

In mid-to-late September though, once the postseason races really start to firm up, the Yankees could go to a six-man rotation for a turn or two, just for that little extra rest before October. The Yankees have used spot sixth starters and manipulated off-days to give their starters extra rest enough times these last few years to tell us they value that extra rest. With expanded rosters coming tomorrow, giving the starters that extra rest is about to get much easier.

Yankeemetrics: One up, one down in Miami (Aug. 21-22)

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(AP)

The Higgy and Miggy Show
The Yankees survived a bizarre game on Tuesday, somehow pulling out a 2-1, 12-inning victory in a game that neither team seemed interested in winning. The Marlins and Yankees combined to go 1-for-20 with runners in scoring position, and fittingly, the winning run was scored on an out.

The Yankees improved to 19-12 in games decided by one run, surpassing their win total from last year (18-26). They also improved to 7-5 in extra-inning contests; the last time they had a winning record in extras while playing at least 10 games was 2009 (7-3).

Masahiro Tanaka tossed six solid innings and his only mistake was a splitter he left up in the zone that Austin Dean clobbered for his second career home run. That was only extra-base hit and run Tanaka allowed, who has been pitching like an ace over the last two-plus months. Since June 8, he has a 2.75 ERA in nine starts, the best in the rotation and a top-20 mark among MLB starters in that span.

The game-winning RBI was — unsurprisingly — delivered by Miguel Andujar, who clubbed an elevated four-seamer deep enough into the outfield for — yet another non-shocker — a bases-loaded sac fly. These tweets below need no introduction:

And because we can never give enough fun facts about Mr. Andujar, here’s one that earns our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Since sacrifice flies were first recorded in 1954, Andujar is the only Yankee to hit a go-ahead bases-loaded sac fly in the 12th inning or later on the road. Congrats, more history!

Miggy was only able to be the hero because of two outstanding late-game Houdini performances with the winning run 90 feet away. Chad Green put runners on the corners with no outs in the ninth, and escaped without allowing a run; A.J. Cole loaded the bases with no outs in the 11th, and escaped without allowing a run. Yup, teams usually plate at least one run most of the time in those situations:

Situation At least 1 Run Scored Avg Runs Scored
1st and 3rd, 0 outs 84.6% 1.7
Bases Loaded, 0 outs 83.6% 2.3

Finally, we get to most unlikely part of the game, the ending: with Tommy Kahnle going for the save, Kyle Higashioka nailed Isaac Galloway trying to swipe second base for the final out. Consider that before Tuesday …

  • Higashioka had only one caught stealing (out of 16 total attempts) in his career
  • Kahnle had been on the mound for 14 stolen base attempts in his career, and only once had a guy been thrown out

Oh, and the last time the Yankees won a game on a caught stealing as the final out, this happened (September 13, 2011 vs Mariners):

The end of Lynn-sanity
The Yankees four-game win streak was snapped in ugly fashion against the Marlins on Wednesday night. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead but somehow ended up on the wrong side of a lopsided 9-3 score, falling to a last-place team on pace for 97 losses. The Yankees split their four games with the Marlins this season; they outscored them 14-2 in the two wins and were outscored 18-4 in the two losses.

(AP)

Lance Lynn held the Marlins scoreless through the first five frames but then imploded in the sixth, coughing up five runs on five hits in the frame before getting pulled. This was Lynn’s eighth start with five-plus runs allowed this season, tied for the third-most in the majors; only Dylan Bundy (9) and Danny Duffy (10) have more. His 104th pitch of the night was a game-changing three-run dinger that turned a 2-1 Yankees lead into a 4-2 deficit, the first home run he gave up as a Yankee.

Lynn was a pinstriped hero after his first three games with the team, but his last two starts have been … well, it’s not what you want:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs WHIP
Last 2 Games 9.1 10 2.04
First 3 Games 16.2 1 0.96

Neil Walker drove in two of the three runs and added to our favorite underrated stat of the season when he hit a bases-loaded sac fly in the sixth. It was the Yankees MLB-leading 48th sac fly of the season, putting them on pace for 61. That would be the sixth-most in a single season in franchise history (sac flies became an official stat in 1954) and the most since 1997 (70).