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An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

March 20th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Wade, Montgomery, Chapman, Happ, Sabathia, Mazzilli

March 20, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees dropped this afternoon’s game to the Astros. It’s their first loss in nearly two weeks. Jonathan Holder threw two scoreless innings as the opener but did allow a lot of hard contact. The wind knocked some balls down and his defense made some nice plays. It was a deceptive two scoreless innings. Nestor Cortes allowed one unearned run in three innings and Joe Harvey allowed a run in two innings. Holder was the only projected big leaguer to pitch.

The shorthanded lineup managed only four hits on the afternoon. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres each doubled and Luke Voit had two singles. That’s it. Gleyber drew two walks and Bird drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. Got him square in the elbow guard, fortunately. “When does it ever hit the pad, right?” he joked to Coley Harvey afterward. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch today for the first time since being shut down with inflammation. He made 25 throws at 60 feet and felt good physical despite being out of sync mechanically. “I just feel a little bit off because I’ve been out for two weeks. Just in my whole body when I threw in the outfield. The mechanics, all that stuff,” he said. Severino will make 50 throws tomorrow, then rest Friday. [Marly Rivera, Bryan Hoch]
Tyler Wade exited this afternoon’s game with tightness in his hips and is heading back to Tampa for evaluation. He said it was precautionary and thinks it’s because he fell asleep on the bus in a weird position. “A lot of guys are hurt right now so I didn’t want to keep pushing it,” he said. [James Wagner, Lindsey Adler, David Lennon]
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has graduated from flat ground throwing. He made 25 pitches from a half-mound yesterday. How may more bullpen sessions? “Nineteen more,” he said. What happens after that? “Not sure,” he said. It is a long and lonely rehab road. [George King]
Gio Gonzalez will throw a bullpen session tomorrow and declared himself “ready to go” for the regular season. We’ll see whether the Yankees agree. Gonzalez added the Yankees were the only team that made him an offer over the winter. Sees normal. [Brendan Kuty, Erik Boland]
Aroldis Chapman threw two innings in a minor league game today and J.A. Happ threw a 33-pitch simulated game. We’ve reached the “short tune-up outing” point of Spring Training. Hooray for that. CC Sabathia will pitch in a minor league game tomorrow. [Kristie Ackert, George King]
Guest instructor Lee Mazzilli was hit in the head by a batted ball during batting practice today. Ouch. He was taken to the hospital and admitted for tests. Hope he’s okay. [George King]

Only four more Grapefruit League games to go! The Yankees have a road game against the Cardinals tomorrow afternoon. Domingo German is the scheduled starter. No opener this time. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

How the Yankees can mitigate the absences of Luis Severino and CC Sabathia

March 18, 2019 by Derek Albin

The regular season has yet to begin, but the Yankees’ season is already off to an auspicious start. Without ace Luis Severino until May (at the earliest) and back of the rotation stalwart CC Sabathia until some point in April, the Yankees will have to begin the season with a depleted pitching staff. Opportunities for Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga have opened up thanks to these injuries. That’s not ideal, even if you’re a fan of German or Loaisiga (apologies to Cessa, but I don’t know many fans of him).

Injuries happen, especially to pitchers, so it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are in this situation. It’s just unfortunate that they’re already in this predicament. Even when Severino and Sabathia return, someone is going to miss start(s) later on in the year. For now though, the team can only address the short-term issue and be optimistic about a rotation at full-strength by early May. There are a few things that could help the team wade through the absences of Severino and Sabathia.

Skipping starts when possible

There are five off-days through the end of April, which would allow the team to use a fifth starter (or opener) only four times in the first 29 games of the year. In the scenario diagrammed above, opening day starter Masahiro Tanaka would start seven times through April 30th, allowing him an average of just under five days of rest. Even though he has a reputation of being better with extra time off, his career ERA is better on four days of rest than five. Starters two through four would average 5.67 days of rest and pitch six times a piece. Skipping starts frequently can be taxing on a rotation, but because there are so many off days to begin the year, it doesn’t look terribly strenuous.

The benefit of skipping the fifth starter as much as possible is obvious: it results in fewer starts by an inferior pitcher. We already know that the fourth starter isn’t going to be anyone the Yankees originally planned for, so that’s a step down already. You know what that means about the fifth guy. All that said about skipping starts, there’s a saying about best laid plans. Weather could throw a wrench in this approach pretty quickly. Or on the bright side, maybe Cessa provides a shot in the arm!

Using an opener

Mike wrote about why this makes sense already, even if it makes you queasy. No need for me to regurgitate what he wrote as I’m basically in agreement. Rather, here’s the simple question to ask yourself: do you want Cessa or German facing the top of the order? Or would you rather bring them in when the sixth or seventh hitter comes due?

A light early season schedule

The good news is that there are some bad teams on the slate for the first month of the season. 16 of the season’s first 29 games will be against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. All but three of those games will be at home. Not having Severino or Sabathia against those teams shouldn’t make a big difference as there isn’t much of an excuse to lose to them. Obviously, things happen and they’ll inevitably drop a few against those teams, but the point stands.

The other 13 affairs aren’t a cakewalk, particularly the Astros and Red Sox. There’s a west coast trip at the end of the month, which is always challenging even though there are two presumably non-contending teams they’ll face: the Diamondbacks and Giants. By that time, perhaps they’ll have Sabathia back, which would be a nice boost to close the month.

Signing a free agent

It doesn’t sound like the Yankees are planning to go the external route, but until Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel sign elsewhere, it can’t be ruled out. Based on what we know about the prognosis for Severino and Sabathia along with the light schedule and off days, I can understand why the Yankees don’t feel pressed for external help. Still, setbacks happen. There’s only so long they can bide their time without outside assistance unless the young arms step up.

One reason that being proactive for a free agent makes sense is because of a potential setback for Severino or Sabathia. What if, in a few weeks, we hear that either of the two need more time on the shelf, but neither Keuchel or Gonzalez are available? The Yankees would really be in a bind then. Sure, it would be a issue if everyone came back healthy on schedule with one of Keuchel or Gonzalez in tow, but that’s a good problem to have. These things sort themselves out. Like I said, someone else is bound to miss some time down the road, anyway. It’s not like a six-man rotation would be unheard of, too.

March 15th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Hicks, Sabathia, Loaisiga, Wilson

March 15, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees beat up on the Red Sox this afternoon. Aaron Judge had a double and a homer — he has five homers, four doubles, and zero singles this spring — and Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu both had doubles. Brett Gardner, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar (two) all had singles. Some of the minor leaguers had big games off the bench as well.

Domingo German started and was very good, striking out six and allowing two hits in four scoreless innings. He has 18 strikeouts and two walks in 11.2 innings this spring. Aroldis Chapman struck out the only batter he faced — Aaron Boone said during an in-game interview with the YES that Chapman will pitch again tomorrow, so the short outing was by design — and Adam Ottavino allowed a run in his inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from camp:

Luis Severino (shoulder) will see the doctor Tuesday and is tentatively scheduled to begin playing catch Wednesday. Brian Cashman doesn’t expect Severino to return until early-May at the earliest because he’ll essentially have to go through an entire Spring Training to get ready for the season. That jibes with the timeline I laid out following the injury. “I just want to be healthy and help my team,” Severino said. [Randy Miller, Dan Martin, Bryan Hoch]
Aaron Hicks (back) feels much better and believes he’ll be ready for Opening Day, but Cashman downplayed the possibility. He said Hicks might begin the season on the injured list to ensure he gets enough at-bats to be ready for the regular season. The Yankees have already discussed roster contingencies and it’s possible both Luke Voit and Greg Bird will begin the season with the team should Hicks not be ready. [Jack Curry, Bryan Hoch, Sweeny Murti]
CC Sabathia (knee) will throw his second simulated game tomorrow. Cashman said they expect Sabathia back in mid-April, and they’re considering carrying him on the Opening Day active roster to get his five-game suspension out of the way. He’d go on the injured list after the suspension. The Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. [Dan Martin, Bryan Hoch]
Sounds like Jonathan Loaisiga won’t be in the Opening Day bullpen. It’s either the MLB rotation or Triple-A. “(There) are some things we’re still figuring out. There’s still time. But his development would be as a starting pitcher,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild. Loaisiga in Triple-A would open the door for Stephen Tarpley to make the Opening Day bullpen. [Brendan Kuty]
If you’re still interested in non-injury bullpen sessions and whatnot, Zack Britton pitched in a simulated game today (so the Red Sox wouldn’t see him?). Chad Green, David Hale, and Drew Hutchison threw bullpen sessions. Earlier this week Green became the team’s first projected big league reliever to pitch back-to-back days. [Brendan Kuty]
Mike King (elbow) will throw his first bullpen session next Saturday and is on track to join Triple-A Scranton in early-May. “I feel good. I want to get going quicker … It definitely stunk originally, but now that I’m not feeling anything it’s definitely relieving,” he said. [DJ Eberle]
And finally, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson arrived in camp today. He took batting practice and shagged fly balls. Wilson will only be with the Yankees today and tomorrow, and it’s unlikely he’ll get a Grapefruit League at-bat like he didn’t last year. [James Wagner, Brendan Kuty]

If you’re interested, YES will replay today’s game at 7pm ET. The Yankees will be back at it tomorrow afternoon with a home game against the Blue Jays. Former Blue Jay J.A. Happ will be on the mound and that game will be televised live. Only four more home games remaining this spring, you know.

March 8th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Hicks, Montgomery

March 8, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees dropped tonight’s game to the Tigers. Giancarlo Stanton clocked a long home run while DJ LeMahieu and Austin Romine added doubles. Romine, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Brett Gardner had singles as well. Kyle Holder provided two hits off the bench, including a solo homer. Even the glove first guys in the farm system have power.

Masahiro Tanaka started and allowed two runs in 3.1 innings, striking out five. Domingo German allowed three runs in his three innings and was victimized by some real sloppy defense. It was sloppy all night, mostly because the non-roster guys and minor league call-ups wscrewed things up. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

The Yankees have selected an Opening Day starter. They’ll tell us who it is once they break the news to the players. I imagine we’ll get an update pretty soon. Within a day or two. The majority of RAB readers believe it should be Masahiro Tanaka. [Lindsey Adler]
Luis Severino (shoulder) received his cortisone shot and feels much better. There’s no longer any pain when he lifts his arm. Aaron Hicks (back) has resumed baseball activities but the Yankees are going to hold him out of games until after Monday’s off-day. [Kristie Ackert, Pete Caldera]
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has stretched his throwing out to 120 feet. The next step is throwing off a half-mound, then a full mound. I wrote the Montgomery season preview and we get a rehab update. How convenient. [Bryan Hoch]
DJ LeMahieu has started working out at first base and will begin playing there next week. He’s played four games at third base and two games at second base so far this spring. [Bryan Hoch]

If you’re interested, tonight’s game will be replayed on YES Network (10:30pm ET) and MLB Network (11:30pm ET). The Yankees will be back at it tomorrow against the Orioles. That’s another night game. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starter. That game will be televised live.

March 6th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Sabathia, Hicks, Ellsbury, King, Roster Cuts

March 6, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees came from ahead to lose to the Cardinals this afternoon. Austin Romine clubbed a three-run home run to lead the way offensively. Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Tyler Wade all doubled, plus Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton had singles. Torres had two hits on the day. Clint Frazier and Greg Bird each drew a walk. Seemed like Yankees hitters were in 3-2 counts all afternoon.

Jonathan Loaisiga started and looked very good in his first two innings (four strikeouts) before things unraveled in his third inning (three runs). He is pitching for a rotation spot now. Aroldis Chapman was the only projected big league reliever to pitch today and he allowed a soft single in an otherwise ho hum inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

Luis Severino (shoulder) is optimistic he won’t miss much time. All his strength tests came back strong. “It’s going to be tough for a little bit, but after that, like I said, it’s better it happened now than in midseason or at the end of the season,” he said. Not surprisingly, Brian Cashman said the Yankees will be cautious with Severino and give him as much time as he needs. [Coley Harvey]
CC Sabathia (knee) threw his third bullpen session today as scheduled. Aaron Boone stated the obvious and said Sabathia will likely start the season on the injured list, but said it should be a “short” stay. Boone make it sound like it’ll be the injured list then the five-game suspension, not the other way around. The order does matter a bit because the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. [Meredith Marakovits, Lindsey Adler]
Aaron Hicks (back) is expected to resume baseball activities tomorrow, Boone said during an in-game interview with YES this afternoon. Hicks was ready to go today, but the Yankees held him out one more day as a precaution. Resuming baseball activities tomorrow means he is probably a few days from returning to game action.
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) will join the Yankees next weekend so they can evaluate his progress. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Also, Mike King (elbow) has an MRI coming up soon. Three weeks ago the Yankees shut him down and said he’ll be evaluated again in three weeks, and it’s been three weeks, so there you go. [Brendan Kuty]
The Yankees announced their first round of roster cuts this morning. Domingo Acevedo, Brady Lail, and Trevor Stephan were sent to minor league camp. There are still 59 players in big league camp, according to my unofficial count.

If you’re interested, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on YES (after the Nets game) and MLB Network (12am ET). The Yankees will be on the road tomorrow afternoon to take on the Phillies. Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Gary Sanchez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Luke Voit are all making the trip, so says Lindsey Adler. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Thoughts after Luis Severino gets shut down two weeks with a shoulder injury

March 6, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees suffered their first notable Spring Training injury yesterday afternoon. Luis Severino was a late scratch from his debut Grapefruit League start with what is being called rotator cuff inflammation. He received a cortisone injection and anti-inflammatories, and will be shut down two weeks. Severino is “highly unlikely” to be ready for Opening Day, Aaron Boone said. I mean, duh. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this, so let’s get to ’em.

1. Rotator cuff inflammation is about the best possible news in this situation. The Yankees say the MRI looked good, which I take to mean there’s no structural damage, so that’s reassuring. That said, inflammation is not a diagnosis. It’s a symptom. It’s like saying Severino has a runny nose without mentioning he has the flu. There’s something in his shoulder causing the inflammation. The range of possible outcomes with shoulder inflammation is wide. It could truly be a two-week thing and Severino comes back good as new. Or it could linger all season and he’s never quite himself. Brewers righty Zach Davies was put on the disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation last May and was shut down ten days. Ten days turned into two weeks, two weeks turned into a month, a month turned into six weeks, on and on it went. Davies wasn’t ready to return to the Brewers until mid-August and, when he did return, he was nowhere near as effective as he had been previously. All things considered, I’ll take “rotator cuff inflammation and shut down two weeks” over something like a strain. This definitely has the potential to be something more serious than the two-week timetable would lead you to believe. Shoulders are unpredictable.

2. I am happy Severino spoke up about the injury — you’d be surprised how many guys try to pitch through aches and pains, even in Spring Training — and I am certain the Yankees will be cautious with him. He turned only 25 last month and he’s one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and the Yankees just committed to him long-term with a $40M contract. In this unforgiving and hyper-analytic era where players are treated more as commodities than people, Severino is an investment, and the Yankees are going to protect that investment. For argument’s sake though, let’s say Severino will be a-okay after two weeks and can start a throwing program. That probably puts him on track to return sometime in late April, or even early May. He was scheduled to make his spring debut yesterday and won’t be able to pick up right where he left off, you know? Severino will start by playing catch, then he’ll throw in the bullpen, then he’ll face some hitters in a simulated game, then he’ll start pitching in minor league rehab games to get stretched out. The best case scenario likely puts Severino on track to begin pitching in rehab games the second week of April or thereabouts. Three or four rehab starts to get ready puts his return at the end of April, assuming no setbacks or delays. The everything goes right scenario has Severino missing the first month of the regular season. Yuck. For all intents and purposes, Severino will have to restart Spring Training once he’s deemed healthy.

3. Boone said Severino felt something after throwing one specific pitch during his warm-ups yesterday. This isn’t something he’s felt for a while that suddenly got worse. Severino recently admitted he felt fatigued down the stretch last year — “When you are at the finish line and you feel like you need a little bit more than five days to be ready, you know that something’s going on,” he said — and I can’t help but wonder how much that contributed to this injury, if at all. As I noted in our season review post, Severino’s fastball velocity and slider spin rate were down late last year, and his command slipped as well. I’m convinced the pitch-tipping was only like 5% of the problem despite getting 100% of the attention. There were real red flags last year. The Yankees have put Severino through two physicals since the end of last season (his end-of-season physical and start-of-spring physical), and you can be sure his medicals were scrutinized before they gave him that $40M contract. Also, Gary Sanchez told Marly Rivera that Severino was throwing the ball very well in his bullpen sessions this spring. “After that bullpen, give him the ball every five days. He’s ready,” Gary said recently. Maybe whatever was wrong late last year contributed to this injury. It’s certainly possible. It seems to me this is something that just happened yesterday though. Pitchers get hurt, man. It’s part of the game.

4. The calls for Dallas Keuchel were inevitable and are completely understandable. The “this guy got hurt, so go sign the best free agent at his position to replace him” line of thinking has been around since the dawn of free agency. I would be absolutely shocked if the Yankees went out and signed Keuchel though. That’s just not how they operate nowadays. The Yankees were not connected to Keuchel at all this winter — I like to think I do a good job rounding up hot stove rumors here, and the most recent post in our Keuchel archive is from the 2017 ALCS — which makes sense because he is not their type. They go for power pitchers and/or pitchers on short-term contracts these days. Keuchel is neither of those things. He’s a finesse pitch-to-contact guy who’s ground ball and strikeout rates are heading in the wrong direction, and, call it a hunch, but something tells me Scott Boras won’t be willing to cut the Yankees a break on a short-term Keuchel deal in the wake of the Severino injury. (It would aggravate me to no end if the Yankees signed Keuchel long-term after declining to go long-term for Patrick Corbin, but I digress.) Like it or not, the Yankees have a payroll limit and they’ve shown us they won’t exceed it. Signing Keuchel means blowing up that payroll plan and exceeding the $226M second luxury tax threshold. Cot’s has the luxury tax payroll at $222.4M right now. The first $3.6M the Yankees give Keuchel (or anyone, for that matter) would equal $4.32M total thanks to the luxury tax. Every $1 after that is $1.32. It is real money and it matters to the Yankees. They’ve made that clear. I want absolutely nothing to do with Keuchel long-term. At 31, he pitches like I want a 38-year-old to pitch after he loses his stuff. I’m not betting on a smooth decline. On a hypothetical one-year deal, even a very expensive one-year deal ($30M?), yes, absolutely the Yankees should sign Keuchel now that Severino’s hurt and the start of the CC Sabathia’s season is being delayed. I just don’t see that happening. I don’t see Keuchel and Boras taking a one-year deal and I don’t see the Yankees going long-term. The Yankees have set their payroll and Keuchel is a fit only because he’s available, not because he does things the Yankees value (throw hard, spin the ball, miss bats, etc.).

5. I don’t think Keuchel is a realistic possibility, though I do believe the Yankees are going to hunker down and look for additional rotation depth now. Moreso than usual, I mean. (They’re always looking.) Jordan Montgomery is on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab but is still so far away — Montgomery recently said he’s looking to return soon after the All-Star break — that the Yankees couldn’t stand pat and wait for him to come save the day. The current crop of unsigned free agent starters absolutely stinks beyond Keuchel and the thoroughly uninspiring Gio Gonzalez. MLBTR has eight starters on their unsigned free agents list. I rank them:

Dallas Keuchel
Gio Gonzalez
Edwin Jackson
James Shields
Yovani Gallardo
Miguel Gonzalez
Chris Tillman
Bartolo Colon

How many of those dudes will actually throw a pitch in the big leagues this season? Keuchel and Gonzalez will, for sure. Eventually they’re going to sign. Pretty decent chance that’s it though. The other guys might be forced into retirement. Aaron Brooks (Athletics), Matt Koch (Diamondbacks), and Matt Wisler (Reds) are out of minor league options and on the roster bubble, so maybe one of them shakes loose before Opening Day. Point is: Yikes. There is not much pitching out there at all. I expect the Yankees to pursue a lower cost depth arm rather than a big money guy like Keuchel, or even a medium money guy like Gonzalez. Someone like Jackson (eh) or Shields (blah) on a “we’ll bring you to camp, and if we like what we see, we’ll consider adding you to the roster” minor league contract a la Ervin Santana and the White Sox strikes me as the most likely outcome here. (Would any of these guys even be ready to pitch come Opening Day? Or are we looking at a mid-April arrival?)

6. As for their internal rotation options, the Yankees have some pretty lively arms available in Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Saying the Yankees lack rotation depth is almost Pavlovian these days. (“What is the Yankees’ biggest weakness?” “Rotation depth. Now where’s my treat?”) No team has an established Major League starter stashed away as their sixth guy and no worthwhile free agent is signing with a team knowing he is at best sixth on the rotation depth chart. That’s just now how it works. New York’s rotation depth chart lines up something like this:

Luis Severino (will miss Opening Day)
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ
CC Sabathia (will miss Opening Day)
Luis Cessa
Domingo German
Jonathan Loaisiga
Chance Adams
Mike King (will miss Opening Day)

We could ague about the exact order all day. Clearly though, the top five is the top five and the next five is the next five. Remember when the Yankees had to turn to guys like Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner and Chase Whitley as depth starters? Yeah, I feel way better about having dudes like Cessa and German and Loaisiga as depth. Younger guys who can throw a fastball by a hitter and break off some quality secondary pitches. The early season schedule is very favorable — the Yankees play 16 of their first 21 games against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals — and I say use an opener for Cessa or German or Loaisiga. Unless the Yankees splurge for Keuchel or Gonzalez, I’d stick with the in-house youngsters over a dude at the end of the line like Shields or Gallardo. (I totally get signing someone like that for added depth. I just don’t see them as better options than what the Yankees have now.)

7. Alright, so with Severino slated to miss the start of the season, who gets the ceremonial Opening Day start? Giving CC Sabathia one last Opening Day start in his farewell season would’ve been cool as hell — Sabathia is tied for tenth all-time with eleven career Opening Day starts — but alas, that won’t happen. He won’t be ready for the start of the season either. That leaves three candidates: J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton. Paxton has never started an Opening Day — Felix Hernandez has started the last ten Opening Days for the Mariners — and I’m not sure the Yankees would put that on the new guy. Happ made his first career Opening Day start last year (remember this?) and Tanaka started three straight Opening Days for the Yankees from 2015-17. Tanaka’s probably the safest pick. He’s done it before, so the Yankees could defer to the veteran and no one would think twice about it or make too much of it. Ultimately, the Opening Day starter and the Opening Day rotation order doesn’t mean much. Opening Day doesn’t have any added importance in the grand scheme of things. It is one of 162, and it usually doesn’t take long for weather and whatnot to throw the rotation order out of whack. This is begging for a poll, so:

Who should start Opening Day 2019?