Sonny Gray Archives - Page 4 of 16

Hot Stove Rumors: Realmuto, Corbin, Miller, Greinke, Gray

December 3, 2018 by Mike

We’re now into December, traditionally the busiest month of the offseason, and next week the 2018 Winter Meetings begin in Las Vegas. I suspect the Yankees will be among the most active teams at the Winter Meetings. If not transactions-wise, then rumors-wise. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Cashman shoots down Realmuto rumor

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were among the teams with interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto but “resisted offering other top pieces in a package with (Gary) Sanchez.” Brian Cashman shot that rumor down. “False. Completely false. I saw that somebody had written that we had offered for Realmuto. That is completely false,” said Brian Cashman to George King over the weekend. “(Sanchez) is not for sale,” Cashman added during a YES Network interview (video link), which, to be fair, is what he’d say even if he were open to trading Sanchez.

When I saw the Realmuto rumor my first thought was the Marlins leaked it in an effort to drive up the price for other teams. It doesn’t really pass the sniff test otherwise. I mean, Sanchez and more for Realmuto? Selling low on Gary to buy high on (the very good) Realmuto is a hard pass for me. Sanchez is two years younger, under control two years longer, and almost certainly the more talented player even if he didn’t show it this past season. Their numbers through their age 25 seasons do not compare. Juicy rumor. Fortunately it seems to be nothing more than that.

Corbin meets with Yankees during recruiting trip

Last week Patrick Corbin went on a three-city recruiting trip through Philadelphia, Washington, and New York. The Yankees did the “photoshopped picture on the scoreboard” thing (here’s a photo) and, according to Ken Davidoff, Corbin toured Yankee Stadium and met with Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, Mike Harkey, and traveling analyst Zac Fieroh. He also ran into CC Sabathia, who was at the park for an offseason workout.

“I wouldn’t call it a recruiting effort as much as an educational effort, where (he’s) getting a chance to see the facilities from the home side (after being here as a visitor),” said Cashman during a recent YES Network interview (video link). “… He’ll get access to all aspects of what we’re about. The brand, our efforts, the people, with Aaron Boone and our coaches and myself and hopefully he’ll walk away getting a better feel for who we are.”

For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Nationals are “seriously focused” on Corbin and are believed to be willing to offer six years to get him. It seems Yu Darvish’s six-year, $126M contract with the Cubs is the benchmark here. Of course, a six-year deal is likely to include an opt-out along the way, which changes the calculus a bit. Well, either way, Corbin visited the Yankees last week, and reports indicate he’s looking to sign soon. I hereby dub this situation: “developing.”

Yankees “badly” want another starter this week

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees “badly” want another starter before the Winter Meetings. That jibes with what we heard yesterday. Jayson Stark says the Yankees haven’t ruled out adding two “high-profile” starters — Andy Martino again names Corbin and J.A. Happ as the likely targets — though that seems like a stretch. This strikes me as one of those general “we’re open to the idea” offseason rumors. Adding two starters would be kinda cool though.

As for the report that the Yankees “badly” want a starter before the Winter Meetings, I totally buy it. First and foremost, they want to get the rotation locked down, the sooner the better. Secondly, once the rotation is set, the Yankees will know exactly what resources they have available (trade chips, payroll space) to pursue bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The longer the search for a starter drags out, the more unpredictable it gets. (Wanting a starter this week presumably takes the Yankees out of the running for Yusei Kikuchi, whose 30-day posting period opens tomorrow and closes in early-January.)

Yankees have Miller on their radar

The Yankees have Andrew Miller on their radar, according to George King. King also reiterates the team’s interest in Adam Ottavino. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees requested Miller’s medical information, which is a) standard operation procedure (teams request the medical information of lots of players each winter), and b) not a mere formality given his knee trouble the last two years and shoulder trouble this year. Those medicals will be heavily scrutinized.

Miller, 33, pitched to a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 10.4% walks in 34 innings around the injuries this past season. Those numbers are far worse than what he did as a full-time reliever from 2014-17. The injuries stink but are not necessarily a dealbreaker. With good health, it’s not all that difficult to envision Miller turning in one or two more dominant seasons before things slip for good. The question is how much are the Yankees willing to bet on that? They supposedly want two relievers and a reunion with Miller could be in the cards.

Yankees on Greinke’s no-trade list

According to Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d), the Yankees are on Zack Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Like most no-trade lists, Greinke’s includes big market teams that would theoretically be willing to compensate him for waiving his no-trade cause (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies) and rebuilding teams he presumably doesn’t want to play for (Orioles, Tigers, Reds). For what it’s worth, Buchanan says there’s “no way” the Diamondbacks would attach Greinke to Paul Goldschmidt in an effort to unload his contract a la Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

Greinke, 35, posted a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with 23.7% strikeouts and 5.1% walks in 207.2 innings this past season — it was the tenth time in the last eleven seasons he threw at least 170 innings and the eighth time he threw at least 200 innings — so he’s still crazy good. He’s also owed $104.5M the next three years. It should noted the Yankees have steered clear of Greinke whenever he’s become available via trade or free agency. They’ve made it pretty clear they don’t think he’d mix well in New York. Oh well. Even if they were open to a trade, Greinke would have to approve it.

Eleven teams in on Gray

There are eleven teams in on Sonny Gray, reports Davidoff. Among them are the Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins. “I’ve had a lot of interesting dialogue, whether it’s for prospects, whether it’s for Major League our need for their need, whether it’s part of a complicated larger situation that involves prospects and Major Leaguers going both ways. So I think we’ve had a little bit of experience with all aspects of it,” said Cashman.

I honestly have no preference here. Normally I lean toward MLB ready players in return — the Yankees are a win now team, after all — but, if the best offer for Gray is a Single-A prospect(s), so be it. One way or the other, the inevitable Gray trade will help the Yankees at the MLB level. Either they’ll trade him for a big leaguer or they’ll trade him for a prospect(s) and unload his salary, which can then be used on a free agent. I’m not gonna lie, I’m kinda surprised Sonny is still a Yankee. I thought he’d be gone by now.

Hot Stove Rumors: Diaz, Gray, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Goldy

November 28, 2018 by Mike

The rumors are starting to come in steadily now, and, in fact, player visits are going down. Patrick Corbin visited the Phillies earlier this week — they had the obligatory scoreboard photoshop ready to go — and tomorrow he’ll be in New York to visit the Yankees, according to Joel Sherman. For what it’s worth, Andy Martino hears Corbin is not expected to drag out his free agency. He could sign sooner rather than later. We’ll see. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees showing strong interest in Diaz

The Yankees were among the teams showing the strongest interest in Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, reports Joel Sherman. The Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox were also involved, though Sherman says everyone thus far has balked at taking on Robinson Cano to get Diaz. Presumably the more money you take on in Cano — he’s owed $120M the next five years — the less you have to give up in prospects to get Diaz. “What are those teams willing to part with in dollars to (get Diaz)?” a source said to Sherman.

Diaz, 25 in March, has four years of team control remaining and he is electric. This season he posted a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 44.3% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 73.1 innings. He is on the short list of the best relievers in the game. The Yankees are said to want two relievers and Diaz would certainly be an upgrade to the bullpen. With Justus Sheffield gone, I’m not sure the Yankees have the prospects to win a Diaz bidding war, not unless they put Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres on the table. Taking on Cano’s deal might be their only way to get Diaz.

Mariners wanted Gray in Paxton deal

Another Yankees-Mariners nugget. Been a lot of them these last few weeks. Anyway, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Mariners wanted Sonny Gray in addition to Sheffield in the James Paxton trade. The Yankees balked because enough other teams are showing interest in Gray that they believe they can maximize their return by trading him and Sheffield separately. Obviously the two sides got the Paxton deal done without Sonny.

The Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have all shown interest in Gray this offseason. We can now add the Mariners to that list. Wouldn’t it be something if the Yankees could build an Edwin Diaz trade package — or even a Jean Segura trade package — around Gray and, say, Estevan Florial? Plus a secondary piece or two? I expect the Yankees to get a decent return for Gray. Using him to get a true impact guy like Diaz (or Segura!) would be an A+ move in my book.

Giants open to trading Bumgarner

According to Jon Morosi, the Giants are willing to discuss trade scenarios involving lefty Madison Bumgarner. The Yankees were not mentioned as a suitor — the Braves and Phillies are said to have touched base with San Francisco — but I’m certain they’ll show interest. They want another starting pitcher, and remember, the Yankees were “in the hunt” for Bumgarner at the trade deadline. I am a tad skeptical the Giants would actually trade a franchise icon, but it would make sense given their current situation and the fact he’s a year away from free agency.

Jeff Sullivan wrote a post this week detailing Bumgarner’s decline. He’s still quite good — Bumgarner did have a 3.26 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 129.2 innings around a fluke finger injury (hit by a comebacker) this past season — but his velocity, swing-and-miss rate, and walk rate are trending down big time. I mean, look at this. Yikes. Bumgarner is still only 29, but he has a lot of innings on his arm, and he might be entering his Felix Hernandez decline phase. That said, there’s only one year and $12M on his contract, and the Yankees wouldn’t need him to be their ace or even their No. 2 starter. Depending on the asking price, rolling the dice on one year of Bumgarner could make an awful lot of sense.

Yankees not in on Syndergaard

Mets righty Noah Syndergaard is available but the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest, reports Martino. Maybe the front office change in Flushing makes it possible, but a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber? I can’t see it. For the Mets, trading Syndergaard to the Yankees would be an ownership decision, not a front office decision, and I can’t see the Wilpons signing off on that.

Hypothetically, I think Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers the Yankees would be willing to trade Andujar or Torres to acquire. Syndergaard has had some injury problems the last two years, but he has no-doubt ace upside, and those guys are extremely rare. Three years of control with that potential? Hard to pass that up, even if you have to give up an Andujar or Torres. You’ve gotta give something to get something, after all. Like I said though, I can’t see a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber going down.

Yankees not pursuing Goldschmidt

Yet another contradictory Paul Goldschmidt rumor. Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees are not pursuing the Diamondbacks’ first baseman at this time. They prefer a lefty bat and don’t see first base as a top priority right now. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees didn’t have interest in Goldschmidt, then, earlier this week, it was reported they pushed Sheffield in trade talks with Arizona. That was a secondhand report though. I’m inclined to believe the “they’re not really pursuing him” rumors.

It’s more interesting to me that the Yankees, at least according to Rosenthal, do not consider first base a top priority at the moment. Greg Bird stunk last year, and while Luke Voit was awesome, his track record is basically one month, and that month is September, when weird things happen. There are always cheap first base stopgap types available in the days leading up to Spring Training — what are the odds Lucas Duda signs before February? — so if the Yankees want some first base depth, they’ll be able to find it. Guys like Goldschmidt don’t become available often though.

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

November 26, 2018 by Mike

I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.

The Yanks have spoken to the A’s and Reds about Sonny Gray and it seems a trade could happen soon

November 19, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is still very young and we’re all still waiting to see how the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius and upgrade their rotation. How they’ll do it, we don’t know. It’s still a mystery and that’s part of the fun. There is one part of the offseason that is not a mystery, however: Sonny Gray’s future. He’s getting traded. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any clearer.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” said Cashman to Joel Sherman earlier this month. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him … He is not a buy-low guy. All the data says he is not. He’ll be a good pitcher wherever he goes.”

Despite what Cashman said, Gray is a buy-low guy — a pitcher with Sonny’s resume coming off a bad year is the quintessential buy-low guy — and Jon Morosi reports the Athletics and Reds are trying to buy-low on him. The Yankees have spoken to both Oakland and Cincinnati about Sonny. Andy Martino adds there are “multiple offers” on the table and Cashman & Co. are currently sifting through them. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Does this pass the sniff test? Yeah, it does. When you first hear a rumor, it’s always good to take a step back and ask whether it makes sense, and this does. The A’s desperately need rotation help. They didn’t have anyone to start the Wild Card Game and, with Trevor Cahill a free agent and Sean Manaea likely to miss next season following shoulder surgery, their rotation depth chart looks like this:

Mike Fiers
Daniel Mengden
Frankie Montas
Chris Bassitt
Andrew Triggs

Yup, the A’s need rotation help. They’re not winning a free agent bidding war for Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel and they’re probably not going to empty the farm system for James Paxton or Corey Kluber. Gray might be their best hope to acquire a potential impact starter. Oakland certainly knows Sonny and I’ve heard they asked about him at the trade deadline, but the Yankees weren’t ready to move on. There’s a fit now. Definitely.

As for the Reds, they don’t seem to make sense as a trade partner on the surface. The A’s won 97 games this past season and could contend next year. The Reds lost 95 games this past season and aren’t a move or two away from making a run at the NL Central title. Trading for one year of Sonny Gray doesn’t seem to fit the long-term plan, but GM Dick Williams recently said he wants to add two pitchers and he’s ready to be aggressive.

“I think we need to add two pitchers,” said Williams during a recent radio interview according to Bobby Nightengale. “I think this year we feel like we need to be a little more aggressive than (sitting back and waiting for bargains late in the offseason). By no means does it mean you can make sure you get a deal done but you have to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.”

The Reds definitely need rotation help and they may see Gray as an opportunity to add a just turned 29-year-old with upside that they may be able to sign long-term. Also, their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. Johnson left the Brewers for the Reds a few weeks ago, so there’s a connection there. The Reds have some added insight into Gray. Trading for one year of Gray may seem weird, but it’s not the craziest thing in the world.

2. Tomorrow may be a “soft” deadline. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have two open 40-man spots right now and no significant prospects to protect. Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley were added to the 40-man during the season. Erik Swanson, Kyle Holder, and Nick Green are the notables who could be protected tomorrow. Maybe there will be a surprise a la Jonathan Loaisiga last year.

If the Yankees need to clear 40-man space tomorrow I imagine Ben Heller, Hanser Alberto, and Kyle Higashioka are most at risk of losing their spots. The Yankees could also kill two birds with one stone with Gray. He’s getting traded at some point, we know that, and trading him before the roster deadline tomorrow gets the trade out of the way and also clears a 40-man roster spot for someone else. See? Nice and easy.

Except it’s probably not that simple. There’s a decent chance the Yankees will get a 40-man roster player back in the inevitable Gray trade, so it’s hardly a lock a trade opens a roster spot. The Yankees have to get the best talent back regardless of roster status. They shouldn’t take non-40-man roster players in return just to make the 40-man situation easier. Trading Sonny won’t necessary open a 40-man spot.

That said, it takes two to tango, and the teams that want Gray may have some players on the 40-man roster bubble they want to move. It could be a player they’re considering cutting to clear a 40-man spot or a player not on the 40-man who is Rule 5 Draft eligible. Did you catch the Aledmys Diaz trade over the weekend? The Blue Jays sent Diaz to the Astros for a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospect Houston was probably going to leave exposed. Something like that could play into the Gray trade. We’ll see.

3. The non-tender deadline probably doesn’t matter. Gray is projected to make $9.1M in 2019 and that’s a lot. More than I expected given his $6.5M salary in 2018. He has his career accomplishments to thank for that projected raise, not his 2018 performance. The non-tender deadline is next Friday, November 30th, and I suppose it’s possible the Yankees could non-tender Gray if they’re worried about getting stuck with his salary next year. That salary could create some headaches if they want to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that’s going to happen though. There seems to be enough trade interest in Sonny right now that, even if the Yankees don’t get a deal worked out by next Friday, they could hang on to Gray and feel confident in getting a trade done later in the offseason. Serious non-tender candidates rarely draw trade interest because teams know they can wait and scoop them up as free agents. That’s not the case with Gray. There’s real interest from multiple teams. Tomorrow’s 40-man roster deadline could push things along. I don’t think the non-tender deadline will. Sonny’s not getting non-tendered.

4. Hooray for a bidding war! The more teams involved, the better. Gray’s value isn’t sky high but I do think he’ll fetch a better return than you might think given his terrible season. He’s young, he’s healthy, he has a strong track record, and he pitched much better away from Yankee Stadium in 2018. The Reds and A’s are interested and I reckon other teams are as well. The more teams with interest, the better it is for the Yankees. It can help drive up the price.

What do the A’s and Reds have to offer, specifically? I’ve had a few people ask me about Gray for Scooter Gennett and I just can’t see that. Surely the Reds could do better than one year of a reclamation project starter for their All-Star second baseman, right? Cincinnati has some interesting bullpen arms (Amir Garrett, Cody Reed) who could fit. I’m not sure Oakland has any MLB players to entice the Yankees. That might have to be a Gray for prospects deal. Point is, at least two teams are involved, so there’s something of a bidding war. That is nothing but good news for the Yankees.

The Yankees Will Get A Better Haul for Sonny Gray Than You Think

November 10, 2018 by Bobby Montano

Brian Cashman, so the saying goes, is a ninja. The reputation is deserved: Yankee moves often materialize quickly and (from our perspective) out of nowhere. The organization as a whole rarely tips its hand with regard to its plans – an impressive feat considering the hyper-intense media environment in which it operates. That is why Cashman’s statements on Sonny Gray, which make it abundantly clear that the Yankees will trade him, have been so surprising.

Cashman’s candor began in earnest last August when he told Michael Kay that “if he winds up somewhere else pitching, he’s going to be pitching extremely well because the equipment is all there, the stuff is there, (but) consistently it’s not playing out right here.” Considering the fact that the Yankees were in the midst of a playoff push, this is about as honest as Cashman could be at the time without outright giving up on a member of the team.

This trend has continued since the end of the season. On October 12, just three days after the Yankees premature postseason exit, Cashman used his annual end-of-the-year press conference to once again make it clear that Gray is persona non grata. “To maximize his abilities,” Cashman said, “it would be more likely best [for him to be] somewhere else.”

As if that wasn’t straightforward enough, Cashman slammed Gray once again last week at the GM Meetings in Minneapolis. The Yankee GM told New York Post reporter Joel Sherman that the team is “going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx.”

Cashman’s uncharacteristic candor over Gray is certainly surprising, but there is another element of his statements worth exploring: the seeming belief that Sonny simply can’t make it work with the Yankees. Cashman made it a point in each of the above statements to emphasize that fact.

This suggests that the Yankees believe there is something to the statistics that show Sonny seemingly cannot pitch in Yankee Stadium beyond simple sample size noise. His home/away splits are downright remarkable, as Dominic mentioned in his excellent review of Gray’s season a few weeks ago. Gray pitched to a 3.17 ERA on the road and a 6.98 ERA at home – and those trends were present in 2017 too.

This also suggests that Cashman is right when he expresses confidence that the team will find a compatible suitor for Sonny this offseason. If the Yankees believe that there is something about the organization and Sonny that isn’t compatible, other teams very well may as well. And if that’s the case, teams will see a pitcher with a proven track record of success – including in big postseason matchups – who, for whatever reason, couldn’t make it work with the Yankees. His age, track record as a starting pitcher and success away from Yankee Stadium create a buy-low package that many teams won’t pass up.

Think about it. If Sonny Gray had been a Cleveland Indian this year and had an identical season, many of us would want the Yankees to go after him. Furthermore, Cashman wouldn’t be so blunt about his intentions if he didn’t know there were interested teams out there.

Because the bulk of our familiarity with Sonny comes during his Yankee tenure, it can be easy to forget the track record that made so many of us excited when the team traded for him in 2017. That underlying record hasn’t changed, even if his value is obviously lower than it was then.

This is not to say that the Yankees will receive a huge haul for Sonny as it is to say that it will not be as meager as we might think. I can’t predict what a trade will look like – and even if I did, it would suck – but I do not think the Yankees are in a position where they will just dump Gray for scraps. He still has considerable upside, and some team will take a chance on him. And if Brian Cashman is to be believed, he’ll probably realize that upside– just not in pinstripes.

Hot Stove Rumors: Kluber, Carrasco, Paxton, Machado, Happ

November 6, 2018 by Mike

The GM Meetings are being held in Carlsbad, California this week and usually that means news — the Aaron Hicks trade went down at the GM Meetings — or at least some rumors and soundbites. “The Red Sox winning doesn’t change the hunger level of trying to deliver a championship for our fan base,” said Brian Cashman to Erik Boland yesterday. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees will talk Kluber, Carrasco with Indians

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees either will meet or have already met with the Indians today to discuss right-handers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland will reportedly listen to offers for their top veteran players this offseason because a) every team listens to offers for everyone, and b) they are a small budget team and they’re running out of money. Supposedly everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That doesn’t mean the Indians are giving their veterans away, but they do seem to be available.

Kluber (2.89 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 2018) and Carrasco (3.38 ERA and 2.94 FIP) are both excellent and signed affordably. Assuming their options are picked up, Kluber is owed $52.5M from 2019-21 and Carrasco is owed $19.25M from 2019-20. They’re both over 30 (Kluber turns 33 in April, Carrasco turns 32 in March), but they are exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees crave. Front of the rotation arms who rack up strikeouts and are on affordable contracts. I don’t see why the Indians would trade either Kluber or Carrasco without getting Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar (and more) in return. These aren’t guys you get for three or four prospects you don’t like.

Yankees interested in Paxton

In addition to Kluber and Carrasco, the Yankees also have interest in southpaw James Paxton, reports Heyman. The Mariners are reportedly considering a rebuild. They haven’t been to the postseason since Ichiro’s rookie season in 2001 — The Mariners have the longest active postseason drought in North American sports — despite spending a ton of money and gutting the farm system to make win-now trades in recent years. They’re at least considering a full teardown.

Paxton, who turns 30 today, threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 208 strikeouts this season. He is under control through 2020. For me, Paxton is clearly behind Kluber and Carrasco on the trade preference list. Those two are Plan A and Plan B (either order is arguable) and Paxton is Plan C. He has a very long injury history and I think the Mariners are going to demand an ace price for a guy who isn’t really an ace. Don’t get me wrong, Paxton’s quite good and would be a significant upgrade for the Yankees. I just prefer Kluber and Carrasco.

Yankees will check in on Machado

Despite being “lukewarm” about Manny Machado, the Yankees will check in on the free agent infielder, and their interest level depends on the asking price, reports Heyman. Cashman ducked the Machado question, as you’d expect. “I’m going to be engaging the entire landscape in the free agent market … We will make sure we check every box in terms of what’s available and the cost associated with what’s available in both marketplaces, free agency and trades,” he said to Brendan Kuty.

To sign Machado (or Bryce Harper), one of two things will have to happen. Either the Yankees will have to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, or they’ll have to shed salary elsewhere and go cheap on pitching. Only one of those two options makes sense for a team with New York’s revenues. There’s a very anti-Machado sentiment that exists right now and I totally get it after his postseason, but this is a 26-year-old infielder who hit .297/.367/.538 (141 wRC+) with 37 homers this season and is a true talent +6 WAR player. How often do you get a chance to acquire someone like that for just cash?

Yankees would like to re-sign Sabathia, Happ

The Yankees would like to re-sign CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, Cashman told Ronald Blum. “He’s been a great Yankee, and he has time on the clock still. I think he’d like to stay, and I think we’d like to keep him,” Cashman said about Sabathia. As for Happ, Cashman said: “I would think that there’ll be a lot of interest in him. He has a great reputation throughout the game as a pro, and the performance level was exactly what we needed. So he put himself in a good position as a free agent.”

For what it’s worth, Heyman says Happ and Patrick Corbin are the team’s two top pitching targets. That definitely passes the sniff test. Cashman mentioned yesterday the Yankees are looking to add multiple starters and they’ve reportedly been after Corbin for a while, and obviously they like Happ enough that they traded for him and started him in ALDS Game One. I do worry about Happ’s declining four-seam fastball spin rate, which is kind of a big deal for a guy who throws so many heaters, especially up in the zone. As for bringing Sabathia back, I am all for it. Get it done.

Cashman reiterates intention to trade Gray

Not surprisingly, Cashman reiterated his intention to trade Sonny Gray this offseason. He’s been very candid about this. “We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him, that are interested.”

I get the feeling Gray is either going to be traded very early in the offseason, as in within the next week or two, or very late, as in February or even after Spring Training begins. Don’t ask me why. Just a hunch. I still believe the Brewers are the most logical fit but man, who in the world knows? Gray was really good outside Yankee Stadium (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP) and he has a strong track record, so it would seem lots of teams would be interested in buying low. Then again, he was so bad this year that I wouldn’t be surprised if teams shy away. We’ll see. I think the Yankees will end up with a better than expected return for Sonny. Pitching is always in demand.

Sonny and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season [2018 Season Review]

November 2, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

This jersey might just be the high point of Gray’s season. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Way back in March, I had the privilege of writing the season preview for Sonny Gray. I did so with not so well-hidden glee, as I was all but certain that he would end up being a tremendous third starter for the Yankees. Take a look:

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

There was more than a bit of skepticism towards that stance, and the early returns this season made supporting Gray seem a fool’s errand. But, as Kurt Vonnegut wrote in The Sirens of Titan, “anybody who has traveled this far on a fool’s errand has no choice but to uphold the honor of fools by completing the errand.” And so I held out hope as bad starts mounted and trade winds swirled, appearing more and more foolish by the week.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the beginning.

The First Start

Gray exited his first start with some superficially tremendous numbers – notably a 2.25 ERA and 18.0 K/9. However, as was the case in his three months with the Yankees in 2018, his underlying numbers weren’t so hot. Gray only completed four innings due to an excessive pitch count (89), and he allowed seven hits and three walks along the way. He was pulled by Aaron Boone with one on and none out in the bottom of the fifth (an understandable and smart hook for the rookie manager), and was bailed out by Chad Green.

It’s difficult to take a great deal away from one start, but the walks and pitch count were endemic of the issues that made fans leery when he first donned pinstripes. And, as a fun bit of foreshadowing, here is where I’ll note that he threw just 6.74% four-seamers in that start – the lowest figure of his career.

The Frustration Sets In

In lieu of offering a start-by-start breakdown, I think that a simple list is all that you need to see in order to understand just how up-and-down Gray was this year. I won’t overload it with information, either – it’ll just be two numbers: innings pitched and runs allowed.

April 7 – 6.0 IP, 3 R
April 12 – 3.0 IP, 6 R
April 20 – 3.1 IP, 5 R
April 25 – 4.2 IP, 3 R
April 30 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 5 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
May 11 – 5.0 IP, 5 R
May 20 – 8.0 IP, 1 R
May 26 – 3.2 IP, 5 R
June 1 – 6.0 IP, 1 R
June 6 – 8.0 IP, 0 R
June 13 – 5.0 IP, 4 R
June 18 – 5.0 IP, 2 R
June 23 – 6.2 IP, 4 R
June 30 – 2.1 IP, 6 R
July 6 – 2.0 IP, 5 R
July 11 – 6.0 IP, 0 R
July 21 – 5.1 IP, 3 R
July 26 – 5.0 IP, 0 R
August 1 – 2.2 IP, 7 R

On August 2, it was announced that Gray would be moving to the bullpen in deference to the newly-acquired Lance Lynn, so this isn’t an arbitrary endpoint. This list simply ends when the Yankees grew tired of Gray’s inconsistency (and, in more plain terms, his 5.56 ERA through 21 starts).

In this stretch, Gray allowed 4+ runs nine times, and failed to finish the fifth inning seven times, which means he was putting pressure on the bullpen on both fronts. And every time he showed flashes of his old self (such as his outings on June 1 and June 6), he came crashing back to earth shortly thereafter.

Watching his first 21 starts felt almost sadistic, as he appeared out of sorts at all times. He couldn’t find the strike zone with any semblance of regularity, and when he did it always seemed to be thrown right down the middle. That has a degree of hyperbole to it, to be sure – but his 9.9% walk rate and 14.1% HR/FB suggest that it rings at least a bit true. The fact that he averaged 85 pitches per start despite average fewer than 5 IP speaks to that, as well.

A Reasonably Productive Closing Stretch

Gray made his first relief appearance in extra innings against the White Sox on August 7 – and it was a good one. He tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just two base-runners, while striking out four, and picked up the win.

He served as a swingman/long-man/long reliever from that point forward, and was more good than bad. Sure, he had two rough outings (including allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an inning on August 12), but he finished out the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final nine appearances (26.2 IP). That included two spot-starts, which are a perfect exemplification of his season – 6.1 scoreless innings against the Orioles on August 25, and seven base-runners and three runs in three innings against the Twins on September 11.

Gray finished the season with a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP in 130.1 IP. It wasn’t his worst season – that distinction belongs to his injury-riddled 2016 – but his 9.8% walk rate was the worst of his career, as was his 50.0% groundball rate.

What Went Wrong?

Yankee Stadium, for one. Take a look:

Home – 59.1 IP, 78 H, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 5.98 FIP
Road – 71.0 IP, 60 H, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Gray was all but unplayable in the Bronx, but he was a borderline ace on the road. There’s some noise in smaller sample sizes of this nature, of course – but this is basically just a more extreme version of how he performed with the Yankees in 2017. Interestingly enough, Gray’s two best and two worst starts came at home; make of that what you will.

And, as I mentioned earlier, Gray’s four-seam usage went way down with the anti-fastball Yankees:

That trend started last year once he was acquired, and it continued this year. Gray threw just over 25% four-seamers this year, after being over 30% in each of his previous five seasons. That difference was made up for with his curveball usage, and that pitch was mediocre at-best; his slider, which is usually his best pitch, didn’t see that sort of uptick. It was a forced evolution, of sorts, and it was not effective.

What’s Next?

Gray has one year of arbitration eligibility left, and MLBTR projects a $9.1 MM salary. That is almost certainly moot, though, as Brian Cashman has indicated that Gray will be traded this off-season. So the only real question is who the Yankees can get in return.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So long, Sonny.