St. Louis Cardinals Archives - River Avenue Blues

Looking for under-the-radar middle infielders the Yankees could target this offseason

January 3, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week the Yankees made a big name depth pickup by agreeing to a one-year deal with Troy Tulowitzki. Because the Blue Jays owe him $38M the next two years, the Yankees only have to pay him the $555,000 league minimum. The Blue Jays probably won’t contend in 2019, but gosh, Tulowitzki getting a big hit against the Blue Jays on Toronto’s dime would be some Grade-A trolling.

Anyway, Tulowitzki is a big name and not much more at this point. Sure, we’ve all seen the “he looked great at his recent workout” stories these last few weeks, but we see those about countless players every offseason. Who’s the last player who had a bad workout? Exactly. The fact of the matter is Tulowitzki has not played in an MLB game since July 2017, and, when he did last play, he wasn’t very good. This is nothing more than a league minimum roll of the dice.

Reports indicate the Tulowitzki signing won’t stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, and why would it? You don’t let anyone stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, especially not a 34-year-old reclamation project who hasn’t played in 18 months. I reckon Tulowitzki won’t stand in the way of anything. If another good middle infield option comes along, the Yankees will pounce, and sort out the roster later. The more good players, the better.

Two weeks ago I tried to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets using skills the Yankees value, specifically spin rate and swing-and-miss rate. The Yankees love relievers who can spin the ball and miss bats. Every team does, but the Yankees especially. In last week’s chat, commenter PJ suggested I do something similar for position players, and seeing how the Yankees are set pretty much everywhere except the middle infield, that’s the place to look.

What skills do the Yankees value in hitters? The skills that led them to Luke Voit: Exit velocity and launch angle. They love hitters who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. This past season the Yankees had the fourth highest average exit velocity (89.0 mph) and ninth lowest ground ball rate (41.6%) in baseball. Three-hundred-and-forty-four players batted at least 400 times from 2017-18. Their hard hit and ground ball rates:

The red dots are Yankees. The blue dots are everyone else. There are 22 red dots in the plot and I count eleven that are either in the “lots of hard fly balls” quadrant or very close to it. And you know what? Most of the eleven that aren’t are gone. Those players aren’t on the team anymore. The red dots in the “lots of weak grounders” quadrant include Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, and Ronald Torreyes. (Torreyes is the red dot at the bottom.)

Hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball in the air are two qualities the Yankees value in their hitters. How else do you think they set a new Major League home run record in 2018? There is more to being a position player than hitting the ball hard — defense matters too, for example — but I figure hitting the ball hard in the air consistently is a good starting point for a potential under-the-radar target search.

Last season 448 players received at least 100 plate appearances. Only 139 of those 448 players combined an above-average hard hit rate with a lower than average ground ball rate, and most of those 139 are the game’s best players. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, etc. Also, not many of them are middle infielders. A few are though, and some of them are available as free agents. Others could be trade targets. Here are five who caught my eye.

SS Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks

Hard Hit Rate: 39.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2018 Slash Line: .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .237/.294/.382 (72 wRC+)

The skinny: The Yankees have had interest in Ahmed in the past, and the D’Backs are selling, so he figures to be available. The 28-year-old does his best work in the field — he’s a stellar defensive shortstop — and last season he cranked a career high 16 homers. Not surprisingly, his hard contact rate ticked up and his ground ball rate ticked down.

“I’m trying to do damage every time I go up there. I’m not trying to buy into this, really, launch angle, high fly ball, home run-or-nothing approach,” said Ahmed to Kevin Zimmerman in August. Maybe he wasn’t trying to become a launch angle guy, but that’s what he became, and as a result he had his best offensive season to date. Of course, he was still a below-average hitter overall, but a sub-.300 OBP with 16 homers is better than a sub-.300 OBP with single-digit homers.

Contract status: Ahmed has two years of team control remaining and MLBTR projects a $3.1M salary in 2019. Like I said, the D’Backs are in selling mode now, so I’m certain they’re at least willing to listen to offers for their shortstop. The Yankees have had success with former Arizona shortstops, you know.

Yay or nay? I’m a nay on this. I fully acknowledge that, at worst, Ahmed would play the hell out of shortstop while Didi Gregorius is sidelined, surely better than the 34-year-old Tulowitzki would. I just feel like there are comparable players available for nothing but cash in free agency.

SS Freddy Galvis, Free Agent

Hard Hit Rate: 40.3%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.4%
2018 Slash Line: .248/.309/.382 (85 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .244/.295/.370 (79 wRC+)

The skinny: Galvis is one of those free agents who is comparable to Ahmed. He turned 29 earlier this offseason and his 45 home runs the last three years are somehow 22nd most among middle infielders. Galvis is also a really good defensive shortstop and, for what it’s worth, he’s regarded as an excellent clubhouse dude. As a cheap stopgap, you could do worse. The Yankees have had interest in him.

Contract status: Galvis is a free agent and I imagine he’s looking at a low cost one-year deal. His contract upside is probably the two-year, $8M contract the Red Sox gave Eduardo Nunez last winter. Maybe he could push a team to $10M or $12M. Maybe.

Yay or nay? I think yay. I feel better about Galvis contributing on at least one side of the ball this coming season than I do Tulowitzki, and it is only money, so who cares about that. You’d have to trade prospects to get Ahmed. Galvis is available for cash.

IF Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals

Hard Hit Rate: 37.1%
Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%
2018 Slash Line: .262/.346/.416 (110 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .247/.321/.421 (103 wRC+)

The skinny: I still contend that, among cheap stopgap options, Gyorko is the best middle infield bet for the Yankees. He’s a solid hitter — not a great hitter, but a solid hitter who gets on base and will put a mistake in the seats — and a solid defender who can play second or third, and even short in a pinch. Also, because the Padres are paying a chunk of his salary, his 2019 luxury tax hit will be $920,000. Realistically, Tulowitzki and Gyorko are the only veteran stopgaps available with six-figure luxury tax hits, and I feel much better about Gyorko being productive this coming season than I do Tulowitzki.

Contract status: Like I said, Gyorko’s luxury tax hit is $920,000 for the coming season. Between his $13M salary and the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, the Yankees would owe him $9M in 2019 once you subtract out the $5M the Padres are paying him. That’s $9M in real money. The luxury tax hit is only $920,000 though. Can’t beat that.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Well, it depends what the Cardinals want in return, though it seems possible they’ll be willing to unload him in a salary dump deal to free up money for other things. They don’t have a clear path to playing time for Gyorko at the moment. If they insist on a top prospect or an MLB piece, forget it. If they’ll take a second tier prospect or two, sign me up.

2B Rougned Odor, Rangers

Hard Hit Rate: 45.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.1%
2018 Slash Line: .253/.326/.424 (97 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .249/.307/.453 (97 wRC+)

The skinny: Odor is a good reminder that development is not linear. He had a 103 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in 2016 and a 58 wRC+ (!) as a 23-year-old in 2017. Last year he bounced back to a 97 wRC+. Odor turns only 25 in February and he already has a pair of 30-homer seasons under his belt, plus he’s a Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed pull hitter. His 2016-18 spray chart:

For whatever reason Odor seems to get on people’s nerves, but step back and look at the big picture, and you’ve got a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder who’s a good defender and has already shown 30-homer power. That’s an interesting little ballplayer, no? The Rangers are rebuilding too. They traded Jurickson Profar and Alex Claudio last month and Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela at the deadline. I’m sure they’re open to discussing Odor.

Contract status: The Rangers signed Odor to a six-year contract worth $49.5M during Spring Training 2017. The deal carries an $8.25M luxury tax hit and will pay him $7.5M in 2019, $9M in 2020, and $12M in both 2021 and 2022. There’s also a $13.5M club option ($3M buyout) for 2023. Trade for him right now and his luxury tax hit is lower than his actual salary in three of the four guaranteed years left on the deal.

Yay or nay? I think I’m a yay. Odor is probably worth a deeper look at some point, but again, he’s a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder with Yankee Stadium friendly lefty power and good defensive chops. Remove the name and any preexisting biases and wouldn’t a player like that interest you? The Yankees could, in theory, trade for Odor and move forward with him and Gleyber Torres on the middle infield, and wave goodbye to Gregorius after the season. Ultimately, it depends on the price. I don’t think Texas would give Odor away and I can’t say I’m eager to trade top prospects for him either.

SS Dansby Swanson, Braves

Hard Hit Rate: 35.6%
Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2018 Slash Line: .238/.304/.395 (80 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.322/.390 (87 wRC+)

The skinny: The No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft has thoroughly underwhelmed at the MLB level. Swanson is a .243/.314/.369 (76 wRC+) hitter in over 1,200 big league plate appearances, and, when you look at what guys like Alex Bregman (No. 2 pick in 2015), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7), and Walker Buehler (No. 24) are doing right now, it’s hard not to be disappointed. That said, we are still talking about a 24-year-old kid here, a kid with a lot of talent who’s already established himself as a comfortably above-average defensive shortstop. Swanson barely meets our “better than average hard hit and ground ball rates” criteria, but he does meet it, and it’s not difficult to dream on him even given his pedigree.

Contract status: Swanson has two years and 47 days of service time, so he comes with four seasons of team control. He’ll be a pre-arbitration player in 2019 and arbitration-eligible from 2020-22. Also, Swanson has all three minor league options remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A with ease, if necessary. That would come in handy for a “play Swanson at short until Gregorius returns, then send him down for regular at-bats if he’s still not hitting” scenario.

Yay or nay? I am a definite yay here. This is Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks again, right? A former top prospect who’s struggling to find his way in the big leagues. Buy low on him and hope you can get him to blossom in your uniform. Sometimes it works (Didi, Hicks), sometimes it doesn’t (Dustin Ackley), but it’s worth a try. The Braves could trade Swanson to address another roster need (outfield? bullpen?) and roll with Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo on the infield. Would they sell-low on Swanson? My guess is no, but it never hurts to ask. I’d roll the dice on a young player like this every day of the week.

* * *

Several prominent free agents (Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera) and trade candidates (Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett) appear on our list of hard contact/fly ball hitters, unsurprisingly, but I wanted to focus on under-the-radar types, the guys who aren’t getting a lot of buzz. The Yankees have Tulowitzki as an insurance policy now. I don’t think they’ll let him stand in the way should a better option comes along though. Calling the middle infield situation settled would be unwise.

There is obviously much more to life than hard contact rates and ground ball rates. Defense matters, contact rate matters, plate discipline matters. Generally speaking though, if you hit the ball hard and you can hit it in the air, the Yankees will gravitate toward you. You can’t fake exit velocity — you can fake being a .300 hitter for a week, but you can’t fake a 110 mph exit velocity — and getting the ball in the air against MLB caliber pitching isn’t easy. Guys who can do it consistently are worth considering, especially while Gregorius is sidelined.

The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

December 26, 2018 by Mike

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Bullpen option off the board: Andrew Miller heads to Cardinals

December 20, 2018 by Mike

Friday: The Cardinals announced the signing today, so it’s a done deal. Two years with a vesting option. Ken Rosenthal says Miller will earn $11M in 2019 and $11.5M in 2020. The $12M option for 2021 vests with 110 appearances from 2019-20 and comes with a $2.5M buyout. Similar to the Yankees and J.A. Happ, Miller wanted a three-year deal and was willing to compromise on a vesting option.

Thursday: According to multiple reports, free agent left-hander Andrew Miller has agreed to a multi-year deal with the Cardinals. The contract details are unknown at this point but Miller was said to be seeking three years. Either way, he’s heading to St. Louis and there is now one fewer free agent reliever on the board.

It was reported in recent weeks that the Yankees had interest in reunion with Miller. They reviewed his medicals in November — that was much more than a formality given this season’s hamstring, knee, and shoulder trouble — and Brian Cashman met with Miller’s agent at some point, likely during the Winter Meetings last week.

I don’t know anyone who doesn’t love Andrew Miller but giving three years to a soon-to-be 34-year-old reliever with an injury history makes me a tad squeamish. Miller clearly was not himself this season, throwing 34 innings with a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) and 29.2% strikeouts. Giving him three years at this point really would’ve been pushing it, I think.

Miller, Jeurys Familia, and Joe Kelly have all signed within the last week or so. The free agent market still offers plenty of quality relievers though, including David Robertson, Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Craig Kimbrel. The Yankees are reportedly seeking two relievers. My guess is they’ll sign a big name and add an under-the-radar type.

After the Goldschmidt trade, the Yankees should check in with the Cardinals about Jedd Gyorko

December 7, 2018 by Mike

The hot stove is starting to get real hot, folks. Within the last week we’ve seen Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz get traded to the Mets, Jean Segura land with the Phillies, Patrick Corbin sign with the Nationals, and Nathan Eovaldi re-sign with the Red Sox. The Winter Meetings begin next week and already some Very Big Things have happened.

The Cardinals got in on the action earlier this week when they acquired Paul Goldschmidt, arguably the best first baseman on the planet, from the Diamondbacks for youngsters Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly, prospect Andy Young, and a competitive balance draft pick. Kelly’s a personal favorite, but I’m not sure there’s a future stud in that package. Seems more quantity over quality.

Anyway, St. Louis plans to put Goldschmidt at first base (duh) with Matt Carpenter shifting back to third base, where he has been a consistently below-average defender in his career. This isn’t quite moving Miguel Cabrera to third base to accommodate Prince Fielder, but it’s close. The Cardinals will live with the defensive hit at third to add Goldschmidt to the middle of their lineup. I would too.

Adding Goldschmidt gives the Cardinals a surfeit of infielders. They have Goldschmidt and Carpenter on the corners, Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong up the middle, Jedd Gyorko and Yairo Munoz on the bench, and top 20 organizational prospects Ramon Urias, Max Schrock, and Edmundo Sosa all slated to return to Triple-A next season. Infield depth is good. Gotta have it.

St. Louis has enough infield depth that trading an infielder to address other roster needs is doable if not inevitable. Gyorko is believed to be the most expendable — that was the case even before the Goldschmidt trade — and that makes sense seeing how he’s the oldest and most expensive among the non-starters. Spending $9M on a bench guy might be too much even for the Cardinals.

The Yankees need an infielder to replace Didi Gregorius, and now that Goldschmidt presumably makes Gyorko even more expendable than he was coming into the offseason, I think it makes sense for the Yankees to reach out to St. Louis about a trade. Another right-handed hitter doesn’t help balance the righty heavy lineup, I know, but Gyorko brings other stuff to the table makes up for it. Let’s talk this out.

1. The Yankees have had interest in Gyorko in the past. Specifically at the 2015 trade deadline. Jon Heyman reported the Yankees offered then top prospect Jorge Mateo to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel and Gyorko, but San Diego said no. Gyorko’s contract was underwater at the time. It was one of those “we’ll take on that bad contract if you give us that good player” trades a la Cano/Diaz. The Padres dumped Gyorko on the Cardinals a few weeks later and he turned his career around. St. Louis got good value from the contract. Point is, Gyorko was on New York’s radar at one point.

2. Gyorko can hit. Not exceptionally well but at an above-average rate. Over the last two seasons Gyorko has produced a .268/.343/.447 (111 wRC+) batting line — his wRC+ in his three years with the Cardinals: 112, 112, 110 — with good walk (10.3%) and strikeout (20.6%) rates, and 31 homers in 883 plate appearances. He’s annihilated lefties (150 wRC+) and been league average against righties (98 wRC+). A solid if not serviceable bat.

The downside here is Gyorko’s declining contact quality. His ISO has dipped from .253 to .200 to .154 the last three years and the contact he’s made suggests that’s no fluke. The numbers:

	Exit Velocity	Hard Hit Rate	Barrel Rate	xwOBA
2016	87.7 mph	36.1%	10.2%	.342
2017	86.5 mph	31.4%	8.2%	.332
2018	87.3 mph	31.3%	7.6%	.322

(Here’s the definition of a Barrel. In a nutshell, it is the best possible contact in terms of exit velocity and launch angle. The MLB average barrel rate is 6.1% of plate appearances.)

A clear downward trend. The Yankees love their exit velocity, they fully buy into it as an evaluation tool, and Gyorko might not meet their standards. He is more or less league average (and trending down) when it comes to driving the ball. The walks and the on-base skills and the ability to mash lefties are nice, and hey, unimpressive contact quality doesn’t necessarily rule Gyorko out as trade candidate. It’s just something to be considered.

The bottom line here: How comfortable are the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) projecting Gyorko to be an above-average hitter in 2019? Can he maintain the 110-ish wRC+ he’s posted the last few seasons another year? If he declines, can he still be league average? Steamer projects Gyorko has a .248/.321/.421 (103 wRC+) hitter in 2019, for what it’s worth. That seems like something you can live with from an eighth or ninth place hitter.

3. He can play all over the infield. Gyorko is a third baseman by trade and and a good one at that. Good enough that the Padres and Cardinals have been comfortable playing him at second base and even shortstop. Over the last three seasons he’s been a +6 DRS defender at second and a +24 DRS defender at third. Shortstop didn’t go so well (-3 DRS) and I wouldn’t want him playing there full-time anyway. In a pinch? Sure. Full-time? Nah.

The Yankees could stick Gyorko at second base while Gregorius is out with Gleyber Torres shifted over to shortstop. Then, when Gregorius returns, the Yankees could either move Gyorko to third base (his best position) and move Miguel Andujar elsewhere, or use Gyorko as a utility guy who plays all around (he’s also played some first base). That’s something you worry about when the time comes though. For now, Gyorko can capably step in at second base while Gregorius is sidelined. That’s the key here.

4. The money works. Holy cats does the money work. Including the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, Gyorko will be paid a total of $14M in 2019. Do you know what his luxury tax hit will be in 2019? $920,000. Well, it’ll be $916,666.67 to be exact, but yeah. Gyorko will have a six-figure luxury tax number next season. Let me explain.

Back in the day the Padres signed Gyorko to a six-year contract worth $35.5M. The average annual value of that contract (and thus luxury tax hit) is a mere $5,916,666.67. Let’s call it $5.92M to make life easy. The Padres were so motivated to unload Gyorko three years ago that they agreed to pay $2M of his $6M salary in 2017, $2.5M of his $9M salary in 2018, and $5M of his $13M salary in 2019.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement makes this clear: Any portion of a player’s salary paid by another team is subtracted from his luxury tax hit in that season. You just can’t receive credit against the luxury tax if the salary paid by the other team exceeds the player’s luxury tax hit. (There’s a special provision for opt-out clauses. That’s why things work differently for Giancarlo Stanton and the $30M the Marlins will pay him down the road.) Here’s part of the relevant text from Article XXIII(C)(2)(b)(iii) of the CBA:

Any cash consideration that is included in the Actual Club Payroll of the payor Club shall be subtracted from the Actual Club Payroll of the payee Club in the same Contract Year in which it is added to the payor Club’s Actual Club Payroll. Notwithstanding the foregoing, an assignee Club may not receive an aggregate credit against its Actual Club Payroll(s) for cash consideration received in an assignment that exceeds the sum of (a) the total amount of the acquired Player(s) Salaries that are included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll(s) following the assignment, and (b) any cash consideration paid by the assignee Club to another Club in a subsequent assignment of the acquired Player(s) that is attributable to those Players.

The $5M the Padres are paying Gyorko in 2019 is subtracted from his $5.92M luxury tax hit, hence the $920k luxury tax number for 2019. Pretty cool, huh? This means nothing to the Cardinals because they won’t come close to the $206M luxury tax threshold next year. It’d mean a lot to the Yankees though. If the Yankees trade for Gyorko, they’d owe him $9M in real money ($13M salary plus $1M buyout minus $5M from Padres) but he would only count $920k against the luxury tax payroll, and that’s the number the Yankees seem to be most focused on.

(The low luxury tax number makes it an easy move to back out of too. If the Yankees trade for Gyorko and he stinks, releasing him and eating a $920k luxury tax hit is much easier to swallow than releasing a guy making $5M or something like that. It’d be a relatively low risk move.)

5. What would it take? This is always the hardest part. I honestly have no idea. The Padres traded a mid-range prospect (Enyel De Los Santos) to get one year of Freddy Galvis last offseason. The Blue Jays traded two mid-range prospects (Jared Carkuff and Edward Olivares) to get one guaranteed year of Yangervis Solarte plus two club option years last offseason. Do those trades work as benchmarks for a Gyorko trade? I dunno.

The money could be a significant factor in a potential Gyorko trade. The Cardinals opened each of the last three seasons with a payroll in the $150M range and right now, after the Goldschmidt trade, they’re at $149.5M when you include projected arbitration salaries and all that. St. Louis might be very motivated to unload the $9M in Gyorko and thus willing to salary dump him for a minimal return. If not, giving up a mid-range prospect or two (Nick Nelson? Garrett Whitlock?) would be a-okay with me.

* * *

I should note that keeping Gyorko would make sense for the Cardinals. Carpenter is a poor defender at third and Gyorko would be a good defensive caddy. Wong could also play his way out of the lineup again, which has happened a few times over the years. That would open up second base for Gyorko. The Cardinals want to contend and keeping Gyorko as a (expensive) bench piece might not be a bad idea, especially because he mashes lefties and Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana, Josh Hader, and Felipe Vazquez all pitch for division rivals.

For all I know the Cardinals might be willing to up payroll next season in an effort to win the NL Central or at least get back to the postseason as a Wild Card team. They have a lot of money coming off the books next winter (Gyorko, Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Wacha, Luke Gregerson) and it could be they’re open to running a high payroll in 2019 before getting things back in order in 2020. I dunno. If not, and Gyorko’s salary stands in the way of doing other things this winter, I think the Yankees would be smart to swoop in and try to work out a trade.

2018 Trade Deadline Rumors: Monday

July 30, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is one day away. The Yankees have already made several trades, most notably acquiring Zach Britton from the Orioles and J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays. Lot more early trades than usual this year, no? Not just the Yankees, all around baseball. Manny Machado, Brad Hand, Cole Hamels, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeurys Familia, Mike Moustakas … all traded already. Weird.

Anyway, even after adding Britton and Happ, the Yankees could still make some moves prior to tomorrow’s 4pm ET deadline. Aaron Judge will miss at least three weeks with a wrist injury, so the Yankees could look to bring in another bat. Also, another catcher could be in order too. Gary Sanchez might not return until September. Plus pitching depth. I’m sure they’re still open to adding a controllable starter.

“We haven’t peeled the onion enough to tell you exactly what we will do. If something presents itself that allows us flexibility and makes sense, we can evaluate that,” said Brian Cashman to Joel Sherman following the Judge injury. “I’m sure things will be thrown our way (now that Judge is out). We will see if anything makes sense as we navigate the marketplace before it closes.”

We’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related trade rumors right here. I can’t promise there were will be many of them because the Yankees have already addressed their most pressing needs with Britton and especially Happ, but I’m sure there will be some. Chat about all the day’s trade deadline rumors and activity right here.

4:48pm ET: It is “not likely” the Yankees will acquire Archer, which doesn’t surprise me. Non-rental intra-division trades can be complicated and so many other teams are in the mix that Tampa shouldn’t have trouble getting a strong offer. [Heyman]
12:22pm ET: The Yankees are among the teams to have shown the most interest in Zack Wheeler. The Mets have set a high price because he’s pitched well lately, though his injury history suggests a smaller return is warranted. [Heyman]
11:30am ET: The Yankees are among the main players for Chris Archer, along with the Padres, Dodgers, and Braves. Tampa Bay had scouts watching Justus Sheffield and Triple-A Scranton on Saturday. [Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal]
11:30am ET: Not surprisingly, the Yankees have interest in adding a bat in the wake of the Judge injury. Specifically, they’re looking for a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield. They’re looking, but it’s not considered a pressing need. [Heyman]
11:30am ET: The Braves are among the teams scouting Sonny Gray. The Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, and Phillies all had scouts at Yankee Stadium over the weekend. [Brendan Kuty, George King]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Yankees trade Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos to Cardinals

July 28, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Please welcome Luke Voit to the team of large adult sons. (Presswire)

Following tonight’s win the Yankees announced they have traded lefty Chasen Shreve and righty Gio Gallegos to the Cardinals for first baseman Luke Voit and an undisclosed sum of international bonus money. The move clears a 25-man roster spot for J.A. Happ, who was acquired Thursday.

The Yankees had been carrying four starters and a nine-man bullpen these last few days and they had to unload someone to make room on the roster for Happ, and Shreve is the odd man out. Realistically, it was either Shreve or A.J. Cole, and Cole’s pitched quite well with the Yankees, so he stays.

Shreve, 28, had been on the 40-man roster bubble for what felt like three years before being traded away. He’s spent the bulk of the last four years in the big league bullpen after coming over from the Braves in a trade for Manny Banuelos. This season Shreve has a 4.26 ERA (4.98 FIP) with 46 strikeouts in 38 innings. He was rather emotional following the trade:

The 26-year-old Gallegos has been the quintessential up-and-down reliever the last two years, throwing 30.1 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 4.79 ERA (3.98 FIP) for the Yankees. Over the last two seasons he has a 2.79 ERA (1.99 FIP) with a 38.7% strikeout rate in 71 Triple-A innings. With Gallegos traded, I imagine Tommy Kahnle will take over as the primary up-and-down reliever.

Voit, 27, is essentially Garrett Cooper with more power. He’s a career .240/.307/.432 (95 wRC+) hitter with five home runs in 137 big league plate appearances scattered across the last two seasons. Down in Triple-A, Voit is hitting .299/.391/.500 (133 wRC+) with nine homers in 271 plate appearances this year. He’s a right-handed hitting first base only guy.

The Yankees already have Tyler Austin and Ryan McBroom, two other right-handed hitting first basemen, down in the minors. Voit is a better hitter than McBroom — he has more power, if nothing else — and, unlike Austin, he has minor league options remaining for 2019 and 2020. This is Austin’s final option year. For all intents and purposes, Voit is the new up-and-down first baseman.

To me, the trade was more about the international bonus money and getting something for Shreve rather than nothing. Had the Yankees designated him for assignment to clear a spot for Happ, he’d be lost on waivers. No doubt. Trading Gallegos clears a 40-man roster spot for … whoever needs one next. The Yankees have really cleaned up the fringes of the 40-man roster with their recent deals.

Update: Jesse Sanchez says the Yankees received $1M in international bonus money in the trade.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Friday

July 28, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET next Monday, and already the Yankees have made one significant trade. They acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox for three prospects (and Tyler Clippard) a week and a half ago. That one has paid dividends already. The Yankees have made two smaller trades (Tyler Webb for Garrett Cooper, Rob Refsnyder for Ryan McBroom) as well.

At the moment the Yankees are a half-game back in the AL East and 2.5 games up on a wildcard spot, so they’re very much in the race. Adding is the way to go. The White Sox trade answered any “buyer or seller?” questions. A starting pitcher is the obvious priority following Michael Pineda’s injury, though another bat and a lefty reliever shouldn’t be ruled out either. We’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so keep coming back for updates. All timestamps are ET.

3:44pm: The Yankees had a scout (Brandon Duckworth!) on hand to watch Yu Darvish’s most recent outing, so if nothing else, they’re doing their due diligence. Darvish got hammered by the Marlins on Wednesday night (3.2 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 2 BB, 5 ). [George King]
3:42pm: The Yankees have interest in Lance Lynn and the Cardinals have been scouting New York’s farm system. Lynn is a pure rental. Here’s my Scouting The Market post. [Derrick Goold]
1:41pm: During talks with the Mets about Lucas Duda, the Yankees offered a similar relief prospect to Drew Smith, who the Mets acquired from the Rays in the trade yesterday. I wonder if that means Ben Heller or Jonathan Holder? Either way, since the Yankees were only offering a similar prospect, the Mets opted not to send Duda across town. [Sherman]
12:00pm: Talks with the Athletics about Sonny Gray at an impasse because they’re asking for either Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres, and the Yankees won’t include them in any deal. Oakland also likes Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Estevan Florial. Despite the impasse, the Yankees are still believed to be in the lead for Gray because they’re offering the strongest package. [Jon Heyman, Bob Klapisch]
12:00pm: The Yankees are among the teams in the mix for Tigers lefty Justin Wilson. Tons of teams are after the former Yankee. I’d be surprised if the Yankees go all out to win a bidding war for Wilson after adding Robertson and Kahnle. [Anthony Fenech]
12:00pm: The Yankees remain engaged with the Braves about first baseman Matt Adams, though a starting pitcher remains their priority. Atlanta is playing Freddie Freeman at third base in deference to Adams, which is crazy, but it’s not my problem. [Joel Sherman]
12:00pm: There have been no recent talks with the Cubs about Bryan Mitchell. Chicago has liked him in the past and the Yankees are trying to clear up the back of their 40-man roster, though the two clubs haven’t touched base. [Sherman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.