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The Yankees and the suddenly available Josh Donaldson

August 30, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A very important deadline is approaching. Tomorrow is the last day for teams to acquire players and have them be eligible for the postseason roster. The player doesn’t have to be on the big league roster before the deadline to be postseason-eligible, but he has to be in the organization by 11:59pm ET tomorrow night. There are no loopholes around this one. It is a hard deadline.

As always, there will be a flurry of trades before the deadline tomorrow — Justin Verlander was traded minutes before the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline last year, for example — and although they’ve been inactive on trade waivers this month, the Yankees could make a move before the deadline. An outfielder figures to be atop the shopping list. Or at least I hope it is.

In addition to Andrew McCutchen, the biggest name on the trade market leading into tomorrow’s deadline is Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, who has not played in a big league game since May 28th due to a nagging calf injury. He started a rehab assignment earlier this week and, according to Jon Heyman, he was put on trade waivers yesterday. (Donaldson sat out last night’s rehab game with general soreness, which is something to monitor.)

Donaldson is an impending free agent and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) hears “the Jays want Donaldson gone,” so I guess that means he’ll be traded at some point in the next 38 hours or so. He hasn’t played in months and hit only .234/.333/.423 (104 wRC+) before the calf injury, but I think there will be interest given his track record. Does Donaldson make sense for the Yankees? I have four questions.

1. Where does he fit? First base or DH, most likely. Even before the calf injury, Donaldson had some shoulder trouble and was having a devil of time making the throw from third base. Remember this? A healthy Donaldson would be a massive defensive upgrade over Miguel Andujar at the hot corner. Even an unhealthy Donaldson might be an upgrade. The real question is whether he can keep the calf (and shoulder) healthy at that position. He may not be able to handle the hot corner physically.

The Yankees have a gigantic hole at first base and Donaldson has limited experience at the position, but he did play a game there earlier this year, and I think he’d be willing to do it for a month heading into free agency. It would not be in his best interests to complain about a position change a month before free agency given his injuries and slip in production this year. Be a good teammate and good clubhouse dude, make the position switch, and go rake for a postseason bound team. That’s how Donaldson improves his free agent stock. Not by insisting he plays third.

Donaldson could spend his time at first base and DH with the Yankees, and hey, if he shows he can handle the hot corner physically even a few times a week, that’d be great too. The numbers are not there in 159 plate appearances this year. Donaldson is only a year removed from a .270/.385/.559 (149 wRC+) line though, and there’s a decent chance he’ll be the second most impactful hitter traded this summer behind Manny Machado. He is AL East battle tested, he won’t be scared away by late season pressure games, and he can crush great pitching.

Donaldson has been there, done that. The division, the postseason, all that. He knows it all. If he has to play first base, so be it. Get the elite talent and sort it all out later. What do I always say? These things have a way of working themselves out. Because they do have a way of working themselves out. Every contender should be trying to figure out a way to get this guy on the roster, including the Yankees.

2. What about the luxury tax? Donaldson still has about $4 million coming to him this season and that won’t fit under the $197M luxury tax threshold. The Yankees had about $3.3M in luxury tax payroll space remaining when I did my last estimate, and that number is probably closer to $2.9M now because they’ve had to make some injury call-ups this month. Donaldson’s not going to fit.

The Blue Jays will have to eat some money to facilitate a trade and it is probably in their best interest to do so no matter where they trade Donaldson. The injuries and lack of production, plus the fact you’re only getting the guy for one month plus however many postseason games, means his trade value is a fraction of what it was a few months ago. Eat money and maximize your return. The Yankees would have to get the Blue Jays to eat money to make the luxury tax plan work.

3. Will waivers be a problem? Normally a player who hasn’t played since May and still has $4M coming to him this year would clear waivers with ease. I think Donaldson is a special case though. This guy was a dominant hitter as recently as last season and there’s reason to believe he can be a dominant hitter in September with good health. He’s someone who could put a contenting team over the top, either in a wild card race or division race or in the postseason.

Because of that, I think Donaldson could very well end up getting claimed, even if the claiming team doesn’t want him. Think about it. If you’re the Yankees, don’t you have to claim Donaldson just to prevent him from going to the Red Sox? The Phillies have to claim him to prevent the Braves from getting him, right? I don’t think he’ll get to the Phillies on waivers because he has to pass through the AL before going through the NL, but that’s the idea.

The AL races are very competitive and I could see a scenario in which multiple teams claim Donaldson, either because they want him on their roster or don’t want him going to a rival. The Athletics, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox could all make claims. The downside is potentially having the Blue Jays dump that $4M in salary on you as a claim, but I think the chances of that are small. It’s still a risk though.

The Yankees have the second best record in the AL — the second best record in baseball, at that — and that means every AL team except the Red Sox gets a crack at Donaldson before New York. If the Athletics or Astros or Indians claim him, there’s nothing the Yankees can do. Their record puts them at a disadvantage when it comes to trade waivers. I’d rather have a good record than a high waiver priority, but yeah, this is kinda out of the Yankees’ hands.

4. So what would it take? I have no idea. There is basically no comparable trade here. We’re talking about a previously elite hitter who hasn’t played in a big league game in more than three months. The Nationals traded Daniel Murphy for nothing last week but that was a straight salary dump, and the Yankees are not in position to take on Donaldson’s full salary because of the luxury tax plan. The Murphy deal doesn’t work as a benchmark.

The Blue Jays could simply keep Donaldson and make him the qualifying offer after the season, which would entitle them to draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere as a free agent. If he accepts the qualifying offer, well, no big deal. Donaldson on a one-year contract worth $18M or so isn’t a bad gamble at all. They could always try to trade him again next summer. I reckon a lot of teams would be willing to roll the dice on Donaldson at one year and $18M-ish in 2019.

Here’s where it gets slightly complicated. If Donaldson signs a contract worth less than $50M this offseason, the Blue Jays only get a supplemental third round pick. That would be something like the 75th overall pick. (The supplemental third round was picks 75-78 this year.) Donaldson would have to sign a contract worth more than $50M for Toronto get a supplemental first rounder. Will Donaldson get a contract that size?

Not that long ago the answer would’ve been an easy yes. The guy was just so good when healthy. Now though? Now he’s batted injuries all season and hasn’t hit much when healthy, and he’ll turn 33 in December. Remember how hard it was for Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier to sign contracts last offseason? Donaldson is better than them, but they were younger and healthier when they hit the market. I don’t see Donaldson taking a one-year pillow contract. This is probably his last chance to cash in big. His best case scenario might be something in line with the three-year, $60M contract his former Blue Jays teammate Edwin Encarnacion received two years ago, and even that might be rich.

Because of that, the Blue Jays can’t really go into trade talks and claim they need something in return that is better than the supplemental first round pick they’d receive after the season, because they might not get a supplemental first round pick after the season. Does one good prospect get it done? Chance Adams or Domingo Acevedo for one month (plus postseason) of Donaldson with the Blue Jays paying his salary? Or is that not enough?

There are a lot of factors in play here. If Donaldson doesn’t get claimed on trade waivers, there could be a bidding war. If Donaldson does get claimed, the Blue Jays have little leverage because they can only trade him to that team. If the Yankees claim Donaldson, the Blue Jays could say “give us something good otherwise we’ll waiver dump him on you and screw up your luxury tax plan.” Would they actually do it? Probably not. Hard to see Toronto unloading their franchise player for nothing but salary relief, but the threat might be enough to scare the Yankees.

* * *

I am completely on board with the Yankees acquiring Donaldson to play first base down the stretch. I know he hasn’t played in months and there will be moments of inexperience at first base, but a) the Yankees don’t exactly have a Gold Glover at first base now, and b) the upside with the bat is too great to ignore. Donaldson can be a real difference-maker. I’m not saying I’d give up the farm to get him. But giving up a dude like Adams or Acevedo would be a-okay with me (maybe even both if you’re confident in his health?). The Yankees are a World Series contender. Put together the best team possible.

There are a million reasons why this won’t happen, of course. Donaldson has to get to the Yankees on trade waivers and that’s not a given, even with his salary and his injuries. (The Indians are the team I’m really watching here. They can move Jose Ramirez to second and put Donaldson at third.) The luxury tax plan is also an obstacle. Donaldson to the Yankees is very unlikely. Impossible? No. But unlikely.

Rosenthal says the Blue Jays want to move Donaldson and I totally believe it. Seems to me whatever they can get for him now will be more valuable than the draft pick they’d receive after the season, even if it is a supplemental first rounder. The Yankees need an outfielder more than they need a first baseman (Donaldson and Curtis Granderson package deal!), but upgrades are upgrades, and Donaldson is potentially a huge one short-term, even at first base.

White Sox 4, Yankees 1: Sometimes you get beat by … Ryan LaMarre?!?

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Dropping series at home to teams on pace for 98 losses is no way to go through life, folks. Bad game, bad series. The Yankees dropped Wednesday night’s series finale 4-1 to the White Sox. It’s their first series loss at home to Chicago since 2005. The ChiSox had been the last remaining American League team without a series win at the new Yankee Stadium.

The Great Ryan LaMarre
Ryan LaMarre? Seriously? The guy is a career .224/.274/.279 (49 wRC+) hitter at the big league level and he’s been on five teams in the last four years. The dude is so far down the organizational ladder that he pitched at Yankee Stadium earlier this year, when he was with the Twins. Tyler Austin took him deep. Seriously. And then Wednesday night he …

… had his second career multi-extra-base hit game.
… had his seventh career game with an extra-base hit period.
… drove in a career high four runs.
… had his first career multi-RBI game.

How annoying. LaMarre struck first in the second inning. CC Sabathia allowed back-to-back singles to start the inning, then recorded two outs and got ahead in the count 0-2 on LaMarre. He was on the verge of stranding both runners. Then Sabathia left an 0-2 cutter up in the zone and LaMarre drilled it to right field for a two-run double and a 2-0 lead. Giancarlo Stanton and his one good hamstring almost made the lunging catch near the wall, but alas.

Elevated two-strike fastballs were a theme for Sabathia that inning. He went to a two-strike count on six batters that inning and all six at-ended ended on a fastball. The two-strike fastball locations:

Egads. Two singles, a double, and a walk on elevated two strike fastballs, which for Sabathia means a cutter. He did get one fly out and a jam shot ground ball on two-strike cutters. Otherwise the White Sox turned those mistakes into runs. LaMarre’s two-out, two-strike, two-run double was a real letdown. Sabathia was a pitch away from stranding those two leadoff singles. No dice.

LaMarre burned the Yankees again in the fourth inning. Sabathia walked Yoan Moncada on four pitches with one out, then left a 1-0 cutter out over the plate to LaMarre, who drove it to left field for a double. The speedy Moncada scored from first with ease given there were two outs and he was off and running on contact. LaMarre also added an (opposite field!) solo homer against Chad Green in the seventh. He drove in all four White Sox runs. Dude.

Sabathia was mostly fine against non-LaMarre hitters. His line: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K on 91 pitches. According to James Smyth, the Yankees dropped to 51-6 when getting a quality start this season. That’s not just the best record in baseball. It’s the third best record when getting a quality start since 1913, behind the 1931 Athletics (78-9) and 1932 Yankees (69-8). That is bonkers.

A Bad Decision
The Yankees had their best (only, really) chance to make this a ballgame in the fifth inning. They were trailing 3-0 after hitting what felt like rocket after rocket after rocket at defenders for four innings. Their first four batted balls of the game: 96.5 mph line out to left, 97.0 mph line out to third, 104.7 mph line out to second, 100.1 mph line out to right. Man. One of those games. The Yankees had eight batted balls at 95+ mph go for outs Wednesday.

Anyway, in that fifth inning Neil Walker and Gleyber Torres led off with back-to-back singles, then Austin Romine drew a one-out walk to load the bases. ChiSox starter Reynaldo Lopez went breaking ball, fastball, breaking ball, fastball, breaking ball against Ronald Torreyes. Torreyes took the first two breaking balls in the zone for called strikes. He was ready for the third breaking ball and pulled a ground ball single to left to score a run.

Brett Gardner, who has been slumping hardcore in August and can’t get a day off because the Yankees have neglected to get an outfielder in the five weeks since Aaron Judge got hurt, struck out for the second out of the inning. That brought Giancarlo Stanton to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs … and then Torres got thrown out at home on a wild pitch. Sigh. Here’s the play:

After the game Aaron Boone said he was totally cool with Gleyber going home there because the ball went to the backstop. It just took an unfortunate bounce back to catcher Kevan Smith and the throw was right were it needed to be, he added. Strong, strong disagree. Look at the replay. Torres didn’t get a good secondary lead at all and he hesitated before breaking home. With the bases loaded and Stanton up, once you hesitate, you have to hold. Gotta let the big man hit there. Instead, the final out was made at home with the bases loaded. G r o s s.

Also, the Yankees put on a clinic stranding leadoff runners this game, holy cow. Greg Bird’s leadoff double in the third inning was wasted. Stanton’s leadoff walk in the sixth was wasted. Gleyber’s leadoff single in the seventh was wasted. Miguel Andujar’s leadoff single in the ninth was wasted. The Yankees put the leadoff man on base five time in nine innings and scored one run. Gardner, Stanton, and Aaron Hicks (i.e. the 1-2-3 hitters) went a combined 0-for-11 with a walk. Tough to score when they do that.

Leftovers
Thanks to LaMarre’s home run against Green, the bullpen has now allowed at least one run in seven of the last eight games dating back to the 12-inning game in Miami last week. Green has allowed eight home runs in 62.2 innings this season. He allowed four homers in 69 innings last year. A.J. Cole and Tommy Kahnle, the only when losing relievers, each struck out two in a perfect inning.

Bird had a double! He caught up to an 83.1 mph changeup from Lopez and hooked it into right field. It was his first hit in ten days. Funnily enough, each of his last four hits have gone for extra bases (two doubles, two homers). His last single came August 12th. Bird is now 5-for-45 (.111) in his last 12 games, though he did raise his season batting line to .198/.285/.388 (81 wRC+), so … progress? (Please hurry back Judge so Walker can play first.)

Scary moment in the seventh inning. Torres was spiked in the left thumb applying the tag on Yolmer Sanchez’s steal attempt. It wasn’t intentional. Just a bang-bang play and Gleyber’s glove was in the wrong place and the wrong time. He has a cut but did stay in the game and even stroked a single in his next at-bat. He’s fine, apparently. And thankfully.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
The box score and updated standings are at ESPN and the video highlights are at MLB. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The White Sox leave town and another AL Central team comes to the Bronx. The Yankees open a four-game series with the Tigers on Thursday night. Veteran left-ballers J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano will be on the mound in the series opener.

DotF: Mike King flirts with perfection in Scranton’s win

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

LHP Justus Sheffield has been held out of action with an illness the last few days, according to DJ Eberle. He’s expected to pitch tomorrow. This will probably delay his call-up. I don’t think the Yankees would call him up with only one outing under his belt after an illness. I bet Sheffield sticks with the RailRiders through the end of their regular season Monday so he make one more relief appearance before coming up.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (2-1 win over Syracuse, walk-off style)

SS Tyler Wade: 2-4, 1 K
C Gary Sanchez: 0-4 — caught all nine innings as scheduled … he’s going to catch nine innings again tomorrow night, then be reevaluated Friday … sure would be swell if that evaluation goes well and he rejoins the Yankees on Saturday, the first day roster expand
3B Gio Urshela: 0-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
DH Mike Ford: 1-4, 1 K
2B Abi Avelino: 2-3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K — he’d been out the last few days with a shoulder issue
1B Ryan McBroom: 1-3, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — drew the walk-off walk
RHP Mike King: 6 IP, zeroes, 6 K, 8/2 GB/FB — 45 of 66 pitches were strikes (68%) … 18 up, 18 down … now has a 1.09 ERA and 27/4 K/BB and 56.5% grounders in five starts and 33 innings with the RailRiders … I wrote about him earlier this week
RHP Luis Cessa: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2/1 GB/FB — 14 of 20 pitches were strikes … this was your standard “he’s going to get called up when rosters expand two days” tune-up appearance
RHP Chance Adams: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 17 of 29 pitches were strikes (59%) … he entered the game in the middle of an inning with men on base, which is not nothing when you’re new to relieving

[Read more…]

Game 133: Sabathia For The Series Win

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees came from behind to beat the White Sox last night and tonight they’re going for the series win, which would be their fifth series win in their last six series of at last three games. By my unofficial count, the Yankees are 26-9-5 in their 40 series this season. Pretty great. Tack on another W tonight.

CC Sabathia is on the mound tonight and, on paper, the White Sox are a great matchup for him. They swing at everything — Chicago has the third highest swing rate and second highest chase rate in MLB — and they’re without Jose Abreu, their best hitter. If Sabathia lives on the corners like he usually does, he could have a lot of success against this ChiSox team. It wasn’t a coincidence he struck out a season high 12 batters last time he faced this team. Here are the lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Giancarlo Stanton
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Miguel Andujar
5. 3B Neil Walker
6. SS Gleyber Torres
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. C Austin Romine
9. 2B Ronald Torreyes

LHP CC Sabathia

Chicago White Sox
1. CF Adam Engel
2. SS Jose Rondon
3. RF Avisail Garcia
4. C Kevan Smith
5. 1B Matt Davidson
6. 2B Yoan Moncada
7. DH Nicky Delmonico
8. LF Ryan LaMarre
9. 3B Yolmer Sanchez

RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Another hot day in New York. Real feel temperature is in the triple digits again. Rough. Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Didi Gregorius (heel) ran on the field for the first time today and also took full batting practice. It is possible he won’t need a minor league rehab assignment. Kinda depends how he comes through his workouts the next few days … Aaron Judge (wrist) had a scheduled light workout day today, so there’s no real update on him. Nothing’s changed since yesterday.

Jonathan Loaisiga could be a factor out of the bullpen once rosters expand in September

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Last night right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga made his fourth start back from a shoulder issue that sidelined him a little more than a month. He threw four innings of one-run ball for Double-A Trenton and has allowed three runs on ten hits and four walks in eleven innings in his four starts back from the injury. He’s struck out nine. Fairly standard “this guy missed a month and is working his way back to midseason form” stuff.

Loaisiga suffered the injury right after being sent down early last month. He threw four innings against the Braves on July 2nd, was sent down the next day, and then was placed on the disabled list July 7th. Apparently he felt a little something in his shoulder during his between-starts throwing work. The injury required a cortisone shot and now Loaisiga is healthy and back on the mound.

During his brief big league stint Loaisiga looked very good at times and very inexperienced at times, which is is no way unexpected. The kid had thrown 47.2 innings total in full season ball before being called up, including zero in Triple-A. And yet, Loaisiga still managed a 28.4% strikeout rate and a 60.0% ground ball rate in his 18 big league innings (3.00 ERA and 2.88 FIP). The kid showed a quality three-pitch mix and very good composure, I thought.

Rosters expand this Saturday, and while I don’t expect Loaisiga to be a September 1st call-up, I do think he’ll be back with the Yankees next month. He’s thrown only 74 innings this season — and 189.1 innings in his entire career — and I think the Yankees will leave him with Trenton for the time being. Loaisiga needs to pitch. He can do that with the Thunder, who have already clinched a postseason spot.

I do expect Loaisiga to rejoin the Yankees once Trenton’s season ends, though it is not set in stone. The Yankees will have two choices. One, send him to Instructional League in Tampa for more innings and more work on a set schedule, possibly in preparation for an Arizona Fall League stint. Or two, call him up, and put him in the big league bullpen. Barring injuries, it’s tough to see Loaisiga making any more starts for the Yankees this year. And that’s fine.

I’m not sure there’s a right answer here. I think there’s value in calling Loaisiga up and value in sending him to Instructional League. If the Yankees do bring Loaisiga back as a September call up, I think he has a chance to be a sneaky good bullpen weapon down the stretch as a one or two (or three?) inning guy. The stuff might play up a tick — Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 96.1 mph and topped out at 98.4 mph earlier this year — and he seems unflappable.

The Yankees have so many good setup relievers that high-leverage work won’t happen, but perhaps Loaisiga could take over what seems to be the ~~Adam Warren~~ A.J. Cole role, that guy who comes in when the Yankees are down a run or two and tries to hold the other team right there. Cole’s not very good at it. Loaisiga might be! The Yankees are good enough offensively that preventing tack on runs could make a real difference in the standings in the season’s final month. (Example: Last night.)

September call-up pitchers have a way of getting buried in the bullpen — we all get excited when these kids get called up, and then they throw like two mop-up innings all month — so maybe Loaisiga won’t get an opportunity to pitch much next month. That said, he did pitch for the Yankees earlier this year, and the guys who’ve been up before tend to get another look in September. Loaisiga’s four-start cameo may’ve pushed him to the front of the line.

One other thing to keep in mind here: The Yankees are preparing Justus Sheffield for bullpen work as a September call-up. He is the organization’s top prospect and his playing time figures to be a priority. I don’t think the Yankees will call Sheffield up and not pitch him. He’ll see some work, and it could be that he takes innings away from Loaisiga. Not necessarily a bad thing! Sheffield could be really good. But his playing time could come at Loaisiga’s expense.

I expect Loaisiga to get called up once Trenton’s postseason ends but it is not set in stone. If he does get the call, and if he doesn’t get buried behind some other call-ups pitchers (i.e. Sheffield and Chance Adams), I think Loaisiga could give the Yankees a real nice boost out of the bullpen. He might be an immediate upgrade over Cole, and besides, there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Every little bit helps, and Loaisiga showed enough earlier this year to lead me to believe he could help again in September, even out of the bullpen.

Miguel Andujar and the ability to hit pretty much anything

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the last month, really since Aaron Judge got hurt, Miguel Andujar has stepped up and become an offensive force for the Yankees. He’s hitting .317/.341/.618 (155 wRC+) with seven doubles and ten home runs in 31 games since Judge was placed on the disabled list, and he’s batted 3-4-5 in each of the last 18 games. This isn’t just a feel good rookie story. He’s an integral part of the team.

Andujar has his defensive issues, for sure, but he really shines on offense thanks to a hard-to-find power/contact combination. He’s sitting on a 16.9% strikeout rate and a .230 ISO at the moment. Only five other qualified hitters can make that claim (Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez). We’ve seen Andujar hit pretty much everything. Fastballs, breaking balls, pitches up, pitches down, whatever.

So far this season Andujar has 99 batted balls with a 100 mph exit velocity or better — only 28 batters have more — and 57 of those 99 have been fly balls or line drives. Those are damage balls in play. The MLB averages on fly balls and line drives at 100+ mph are a .730 AVG and a 1.091 ISO. Andujar is hitting .754 with a 1.351 ISO on those batted balls. Good things happen when you hit the ball hard and in the air. Very good things.

What really stands out about Andujar is the way he can seemingly hit any pitch hard. Here are the pitch types and pitch locations of those 57 fly balls or line drives with at least a 100 mph exit velocity:

Not many pitches up in the zone, but Andujar has been hammering everything else. Inside, outside, down, hard stuff, breaking stuff, whatever. Among these 57 balls in play, 30 have come on fastballs and 21 have come on breaking balls. It’s kinda funny there’s a hole middle-middle on that strike zone plot. That seems to be the one place in the strike zone Andujar hasn’t hit the ball hard.

“I think he’s a really talented hitter with a lot of swing versatility,” said Aaron Boone to Erik Boland over the weekend. “Meaning, he’s not a guy you necessarily pitch one way and are going to get him out. Like some guys are a low-ball hitter and if you make that mistake, they make you pay, but if you execute on them, there’s holes where you can go. I don’t feel like there’s a lot of holes”

According to the pitch type data at FanGraphs, Andujar has been an above-average producer against fastballs (0.42 runs above-average per 100 pitches), sliders (2.08), curveballs (2.90), and changeups (1.00). I’m kinda surprised his fastball production isn’t better. I’m also pretty impressed Andujar has been so successful against non-fastballs. Those usually give rookies lots of problems.

For every 100 thrown, Andujar is a full run better than average against sliders, curveballs, and changeups. The list of hitters who can make that claim is quite small.

	Sliders	Curveballs	Changeups
Miguel Andujar	2.08	2.90	1.11
Scooter Gennett	2.19	2.05	3.81
Jose Martinez	1.73	1.71	1.87
David Peralta	3.89	3.96	1.20
Gregory Polanco	1.48	1.14	1.88
Jose Ramirez	1.28	1.11	1.28
Trevor Story	1.23	2.03	3.04
Christian Yelich	1.81	4.22	1.42

Only six hitters other than Andujar are at least two runs above average per 100 pitches against both sliders and curveballs, including big time heavy hitters like Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve. It is very difficult to be good at hitting all types of pitches no matter the player’s experience level. Andujar is doing it as a rookie. Could it be a fluke? Sure. But getting the barrel on the ball and hitting it hard has always been his M.O.

“I feel like he has adjustability within the strike zone that he can handle a lot of different pitches, a lot of different zones, a lot of different pitches from fastball to offspeed,” Boone added. “You can’t necessarily get him out one way, and I think that lends itself to him being consistently a very tough out.”

Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, Andujar has slumped this season, specifically when he hit .226/.276/.383 (76 wRC+) in 123 plate appearances from June 13th through the All-Star break. That is the kind of thing that can happen to any hitter, especially rookies, and often does. Andujar raked early, pitchers flat out stopped throwing him fastballs …

… and his production slipped. Andujar then made the adjustment back and starting hitting all those offspeed pitches, and he’s been excellent since the All-Star break. “I think he’s getting more and more comfortable. I think we saw this early, his adjustability, and I think the intelligence he shows in the box, he’s good at having a plan. But I think he’s got a really good idea of what teams are doing to him and what pitchers are doing to him,” said Boone.

In a way, I see Andujar as being similar to Didi Gregorius as a hitter. Gregorius is a lefty and that puts him at the platoon advantage more often, but what I mean is they are both free swingers — they both rank in the top 25 in swing rate this year — who don’t swing and miss much, and have the ability to get the bat on pretty much anything anywhere. Didi can hit fastballs, sliders, curves, whatever, and he can cover the entire strike zone.

Andujar can do that as well. He’s doing it with much more power now than Gregorius did at the same age, he’s doing it without the platoon advantage as often, and he’s doing it earlier in his career. It took Didi a few years to become the hitter he is today. Andujar is that same type of hitter (with more power), but as a rookie. His ability to barrel up the baseball is bordering on elite, and there’s still another level to his offensive game once he develops a little more plate discipline. What he’s doing now, as a rookie, is even more impressive than the raw stats when you look beneath the hood a bit.

Thoughts two games into the seven-game homestand

August 29, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

After falling behind 4-0 last night, the Yankees rallied for a 5-4 walk-off win over the White Sox, giving them 16 wins in their last 22 games. They have been taking care of business against bad teams these last three weeks. Anyway, here’s a rare mid-series thoughts post because I have some stuff scattered in my head and jotted down in my notebook that I don’t want to sit on any longer. Let’s get to it.

1. The Yankees are 84-48 right now — hooray for a palindrome record! — so they have to go 16-14 the rest of the way to reach 100 wins for the first time since winning 103 games in 2009. The schedule does toughen up a bit in September (three with the Athletics, four with the Rays, six with the Red Sox), but 16-14 seems very doable. Through 132 games last season the Yankees were 70-62. They are 14 games ahead of that pace this year. The Indians finished with the best record in the American League last season and they were 76-56 through 132 games. The Yankees are eight games ahead of that pace. The eventual World Series champion Astros were 79-53 through 132 games last year. The 2018 Yankees are five games ahead of that pace. This team is so freaking good, man. Even with all the injuries and Luis Severino’s recent slump. They’re just so good. They’re so good and I feel like not enough people have taken a step back to appreciate just how good they are. The 2018 Yankees have to be the most complained about great team in the social media era. Hands down.

2. By my unofficial count, only 48 55 times in their 132 games have the Yankees had Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Judge in the starting lineup this season. They were their three best position players last year and only 48 55 times have all three been in the lineup so far this season. Hopefully that number increases soon — Sanchez and Gregorius could be back as soon as this weekend, though Judge is still a ways off, it seems — but it won’t increase much. There’s not much season left. Sanchez, Gregorius, and Judge will be in the lineup together maybe 60-something times this year and still somehow this team is on pace to win over 100 games. Never in a million years would I have thought the Yankees would be able to maintain a 100+ win pace with those three spending so little time in the lineup together. I know it sounds silly when dudes like Shane Robinson and Kyle Higashioka are on the roster, but that is a testament to the team’s depth. There’s been a “next man up” mentality all season.

3. I know he’s slumping a bit right now but I can’t say enough about how well Giancarlo Stanton has played the last few months. Last night was his 81st consecutive start — his last game off was May 28th — even though he’s been battling that tight hamstring more than a month now. Going into last night, in the first 80 games of these 81 straight starts, Stanton hit .298/.369/.554 (146 wRC+) with 21 homers. That is big time production. Stanton’s little slump right now is nothing to worry about. It’s his first real slump since what, April? It was bound to happen. He’ll snap out of it before you know it. Point is, Stanton has been an impact player since his rough start to the season, and he’s doing it while playing hurt and never taking a game off. Chances are he’ll never hit 59 home runs again because hitting 59 home runs is extremely rare — Stanton had only the tenth 59+ homer season in MLB history last year — but he’s been playing every game because the Yankees have needed him to play every game, and he’s been extremely productive. What a ballplayer.

4. I am so very happy Dellin Betances bounced back this season. He is a personal favorite and the end of last season was such a mess for him. Betances became persona non grata in September and in the postseason and it was entirely deserved. He pitched poorly and Joe Girardi couldn’t trust him in important innings. Dellin started slow again this year and pretty much everyone doubted him. Lots and lots of folks were ready to give up on him. The Yankees stuck with him and are being rewarded with another elite relief season. Betances currently has a 2.14 ERA (2.15 FIP) with a career high 44.4% strikeout rate and the second lowest walk rate (9.3%) of his career. Pretty much all the key late inning guys have had a hiccup at some point this summer. Aroldis Chapman’s knee has been an issue lately, Chad Green stumbled around the All-Star break, and David Robertson has given up some untimely home runs. Betances has been a rock since April. Three runs and 32 baserunners in his last 39 appearances and 38.2 innings now, with 66 strikeouts. What a beast. So happy for Dellin.

5. The Yankees already have six 20-homer guys this year and Sanchez is not one of them. Stanton, Judge, Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Hicks. Those are the six. Sanchez is sitting on 14 home runs and I wouldn’t put hitting six homers in September past him. The 2018 Yankees have a chance to become only seventh team in history with seven 20-homer hitters, and only the second Yankees team to do it, joining the 2009 squad (Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira). The Yankees already have nine players with 10+ homers this season with two others (Austin Romine, Neil Walker) sitting on nine homers. Only four teams in history have had eleven players hit 10+ home runs (2004 Tigers, 2015 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2017 Astros). The Yankees could do it this year. That is pretty incredible. There is power up and down the lineup and it showed in last night’s game. The No. 3 (Hicks) and No. 4 (Andujar) hitters both went deep, and a dude came off the bench (Walker) to hit a pinch-hit walk-off homer.

6. Speaking of Walker, I am getting a very 2012 Raul Ibanez vibe from him. The Yankees signed Ibanez right before Spring Training that year and he was supposed to be a platoon DH. He struggled early in the year, then once injuries forced him into everyday duty, he really hit his stride and had all those big hits late in the season and in the postseason. Walker signed in Spring Training, was supposed to be a part-time utility guy, and didn’t really hit his stride until injuries forced him into everyday duty. Prior to last night’s pinch-hit walk-off homer, Walker was hitting .275/.357/.467 (122 wRC+) in his last 37 games and 140 plate appearances. That looks an awful lot like the .274/.355/.458 (118 wRC+) batting line he put up from 2016-17. Expecting Walker to hit insanely clutch home runs seemingly on demand like Ibanez in 2012 is unrealistic — maybe last night was the start of a clutch homer binge! — but the point is he’s a quality player who started the season terribly, and has played very well lately, once his playing time increased. He’s done it while playing right field too. Dude has been a total pro. He’s playing wherever he’s needed, he never ducked questions about his early season struggles, and he never pouted about his lack of playing time. It took a little longer than we all would’ve liked, but Walker has found his way and he’s contributing on the regular.

7. Once Judge returns from the disabled list and goes back to right field, Walker has to take over as the starting first baseman. Luke Voit is fine and all, but give me Walker over Voit. There is a minimum acceptable level of offense in Major League Baseball and Greg Bird isn’t coming close to it with his .196/.284/.384 (80 wRC+) batting line. He’s going to reach 300 plate appearances later this week. This isn’t that small a sample any more. Bird has been terrible and the Yankees have been patient, and we’re reaching the point where putting the best team on the field has to take priority over hoping a player snaps out of a long funk. Once Judge returns, the best team the Yankees can field has Walker at first base, not Bird (or Voit). Maybe Bird will start hitting between now and the time Judge returns and forces the issue. That would be cool. Aside from the occasional homer though, he’s been a zero at the plate, and I don’t think the Yankees can afford to continue waiting on him. He gets until Judge returns. That has to be it. Then it’s Walker time.

8. I feel like we can already pencil Lance Lynn in for one of those heroic three or four-inning relief appearances in the postseason. Know what I mean? The starter gets knocked out early and he holds the other team down, allowing the offense to get back in the game. That sorta thing. Right now I have to think the Yankees would go with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and J.A. Happ as their four postseason starters in whatever order. Lynn has experience pitching out of the bullpen — the Cardinals regularly used him as a high-leverage guy in the postseason during their heyday from 2011-15 — and he seems to have the right mentality for it. I don’t see the Yankees carrying Sonny Gray on the postseason roster because there’s just no way to trust him. That means Lynn takes over as the long man. Lynn has one of those “Lance Lynn is the unsung hero of this game” relief appearances coming this October. You heard it here first.