Up until about four years ago the Yankees had a thoroughly unproductive farm system that failed to produce low-cost complementary players, nevermind impact big leaguers. Brett Gardner and David Robertson were the best the farm system had to offer from 2006, the year after Robinson Cano arrived, to 2014, the year before Luis Severino arrived. Gardner and Robertson are forever cool with me, but yeah. The system was not productive.

The Yankees overhauled their player development system in 2014 and, since then, they’ve become a star factory. Severino in 2015, Gary Sanchez in 2016, Aaron Judge in 2017, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar in 2018. Impact player after impact player. That doesn’t include guys like Chad Green, Jordan Montgomery, and Jonathan Holder either. The Yankees were desperate for a Montgomery type from 2006-14. Now he’s almost an afterthought.

Due to graduations and trades the Yankees currently have a weakened farm system that is heavy on pitching and heavy on players in the lower minors. It’s not a bad system, necessarily, it’s just short on potential impact talent close to the big leagues. The Yankees have a lot of high-end prospects below High Class-A, which is both exciting and scary. Exciting because another wave of talent is on the horizon. Scary because lower level prospects are high-risk.

This year’s top 30 prospects list includes eight teenagers. Last year’s had five. Eleven of last year’s top 30 prospects are not eligible for this year’s list. They’ve either graduated to the big leagues or are no longer in the organization. Four others dropped out of the top 30 for development/performance reasons. That means half the top 30 has turned over. Exciting! New names are fun. At the same time, it’s a reminder the great farm system of a year or two ago is no more.

I have now been ranking Yankees prospects here at RAB for 13 years (!) and I swear, it gets harder each year. The game is constantly changing and it can be difficult to keep up. Ranking prospects is all about preference. Upside or probability? Tools or performance? Everyone balances those things differently, and once you think you’ve figured it out, some prospect comes along and changes your mind. There is no correct way to rank prospects. Prospect lists are glorified opinion columns.

Obligatory reminder: I am not an expert and I most certainly am not a scout. I’m just a guy who reads a lot and has opinions, and has decided to share those opinions with you on my free-of-charge blog. I’m wrong about players and prospects all the time. I mean, all the time. I once ranked Aaron Judge as the fourth best outfield prospect in the system. True story. Make sure you bookmark this post and laugh at it repeatedly, otherwise what’s the point?

Anyway, all of my top 30 lists are right here. I use the MLB rookie limits of 130 at-bats and 50 innings to determine prospect eligibility. I don’t worry about service time because it’s too much of a headache to track. All headshots come from MLB.com or MiLB.com unless noted otherwise. This year’s top 30 prospects are after the jump. Enjoy.

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A lot has changed the last two months. First of all, the 2018 amateur draft went down in early-June, injecting every farm system with more talent. The Yankees made 40 picks in this year’s draft and signed 34 of them, including every pick in rounds 1-30. That’s an awful lot of draft signings. Teams will usually sign 25-30 guys in a given year. This year the Yankees brought in 34.

Secondly, the Yankees were very active at the trade deadline. Possibly the most active team. They made six trades in the week leading up to the trade deadline, and the end result was eleven players going out and four players (plus $3.75M in international bonus money) coming in. Add in some graduations (Gleyber Torres and Domingo German, most notably) and the farm system looks quite a bit different now than it did two months ago.

So, now that the draft and trade deadline have passed and the dust has settled, it’s time to update my top 30 Yankees prospects list. Again, this is my list. Not yours, not Baseball America’s, not anyone else’s. If you disagree, cool. There’s no right answer when it comes to ranking prospects. Because I know the “where would this guy have ranked?” questions are coming, I’ve included where I would’ve ranked the guys who were traded away. Here’s the updated top 30. Enjoy.

The Top Prospect

1. LHP Justus Sheffield, Triple-A (Pre-Draft: No. 2)

Torres has graduated to the big leagues — he was 17 at-bats short of the rookie limit when I compiled the pre-draft list — so Sheffield takes over as the No. 1 prospect in the organization, pretty clearly so in my opinion. There wasn’t much to think about here. Sheffield is a near big league ready southpaw with mid-90s gas, a wipeout slider, and a quality changeup he should probably use more often. We’ll see him in the Bronx before the end of the season. I’m pretty sure of it.

The Next Four

2. OF Estevan Florial, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 3)
3. C Anthony Seigler, Rookie (Pre-Draft: N/A)
4. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, Triple-A (Pre-Draft: No. 5)
5. RHP Albert Abreu, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 4)

Seigler, this year’s first round pick, is the only new addition to my top five prospects. A switch-hitting (and switch-throwing!) catcher with offensive upside and quality defensive tools is my kinda prospect. Seigler has also drawn praise for his grinder mentality and leadership. A minor hamstring issue has slowed him some the last few weeks, but Seigler went into last night’s game hitting .342/.457/.474 (164 wRC+) with more walks (eight) than strikeouts (seven) through 13 pro games. The early returns are very promising. Good chance Seigler is the next No. 1 prospect once Sheffield is no longer prospect eligible.

Florial (wrist), Loaisiga (shoulder), and Abreu (appendix, elbow) have all missed several weeks with injuries this year. Florial has since returned and is playing well, which is good. The wrist surgery was more of a bump in the road than a derailment. Loaisiga’s stock increased tremendously before his injury, so much so that he made four big league starts and held his own (3.00 ERA and 2.89 FIP in 18 innings). Just wish he could’ve stayed on the field and thrown a full season for the first time in his career. Abreu recently returned to the mound and has gotten shelled in two rehab starts. As long as he’s healthy and actually pitching, I’m willing to overlook the short-term results.

Two New Faces, Two Old Faces

6. OF Everson Pereira, Rookie (Pre-Draft: Not Ranked)
7. RHP Roansy Contreras, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 21)
RHP Dillon Tate (Pre-Draft: No. 7)
8. RHP Chance Adams, Triple-A (Pre-Draft: No. 6)
9. RHP Luis Medina, Rookie (Pre-Draft: No. 8)

Pereira and Contreras are the big climbers on the list. I didn’t include Pereira in my pre-draft top 30 because he had yet to play a professional game, and my preference is to wait until guys show up and actually start playing games before ranking them. He’s since made his debut, the performance is good, and the reports are glowing. Is ranking him No. 6 aggressive? Yeah, but that’s okay. Tooled up center fielders who keep getting better deserve an aggressive ranking.

As for Contreras, he’s added basically two full grades of velocity within the last two years, going from 88-91 mph when he signed in 2016 to 94-96 mph now, with some 97s. Great curveball, good changeup, excellent pitchability, great mound presence. He’s only 18 and there’s a lot that can go wrong before he reaches the show, yeah, but I’m very excited. Contreras has a chance to be special. So does Medina, who is more of a long-term project because he has basically zero command. Think 19-year-old Dellin Betances. Adams? What a rough year. Hard to believe that, after his breakout 2016 season, we’re now in August 2018 and he still hasn’t made his MLB debut.

Breakout Arms (Mostly)

10. RHP Matt Sauer, Short Season (Pre-Draft: No. 12)
11. RHP Clarke Schmidt, Short Season (Pre-Draft: No. 14)
12. UTIL Tyler Wade, MLB (Pre-Draft: No. 9)
13. RHP Domingo Acevedo, Double-A (Pre-Draft: No. 13)
14. RHP Trevor Stephan Double-A (Pre-Draft: No. 15)
15. RHP Deivi Garcia, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 26)

The Yankees have really cleaned up Sauer’s mechanics and he’s throwing way more strikes now than I expected. I thought it would be a long-term process to get him to find the plate consistently. Glad that happened quickly. Schmidt has completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and, so far, everything looks quite good. The early returns are encouraging. The rest of this season will be about shaking off the rust and getting comfortable. Next year will be Schmidt’s breakout party.

Wade and Acevedo are starting to slide down the rankings for different reasons. Wade is still a few at-bats short of the rookie limit and he’s been unable to carve out any sort of big league role in numerous opportunities. Part of it is not playing much, but that doesn’t absolve him of blame. Player better and you’ll be in the lineup. Still, a lefty hitter with speed, a history of getting on base, and splendid defense has value. Acevedo has again dealt with injuries this year, his breaking ball isn’t really progressing, and his strikeout rate is down to 20.2% after 26.6% from 2016-17.

Stephen hit a bit of a wall at midseason but he has predictably carved up low level minor leagues with his fastball/slider combination. I think he could pitch in the big leagues within 12 months. Garcia is one of the top breakout players in the farm system. The big question coming into the season was will he throw strikes? And here he is with a 6.9% walk rate in 45.1 innings. Great fastball plus elite curveball plus improved control equals a 37.1% strikeout rate. The only thing holding the kid back is his size (5-foot-10 and 163 lbs.).

The Injured Prospects

16. SS Thairo Estrada, Triple-A (Pre-Draft: No. 10)
17. RHP Freicer Perez, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 11)

A lost season for both. Estrada’s season started late because he got shot during a robbery in January, and, once he returned to the field, wrist and back trouble limited him to 18 games. The back injury ended his season on May 7th. I get the sense he’s a candidate to be non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league contract after the season. Perez made six awful starts before needing season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. I suppose the good news is his labrum and rotator cuff were in good shape. Still sucks.

One Standout Tool

18. C Josh Breaux, Short Season (Pre-Draft: N/A)
19. RHP Nick Green, High-A (Pre-Draft: Not Ranked)
20. SS Kyle Holder, Double-A (Pre-Draft: No. 17)
21. 1B Dermis Garcia, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 18)

Everyone in this tier has a top notch carry tool. It’s just unclear whether the rest of their game will be good enough to make it work long-term. Breaux and especially Garcia have big power — Breaux’s a sneaky good defender behind the plate, though he still has a lot of work to do — while Holder could play Gold Glove caliber defense in the big leagues today. Will he hit enough? Will Breaux or Garcia make enough contact? Who knows. The Yankees are converting Dermis into a two-way player, you know. He’s expected to pitch in a game sometime this month.

I finally caved and included Green in the top 30 after basically two years of being on the fence. His little sinker/cutter hybrid has produced the best ground ball rate in the minors (65.9%) by more than three percentage points. That’s the kind of dominant pitch that can get a guy to the big leagues. I’m not sure if the secondaries will be up to par, though maybe Green can settle in as a sinker heavy reliever like Blake Treinen or Jeremy Jeffress? I’d take it in a heartbeat.

The Final Nine

22. RHP Garrett Whitlock, High-A Tampa (Pre-Draft: No. 19)
OF Billy McKinney, Triple-A (Pre-Draft: No. 22)
23. SS Hoy Jun Park, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 20)
24. OF Pablo Olivares, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 23)
25. RHP Luis Gil, Rookie (Pre-Draft: Not Ranked)
26. OF Isiah Gilliam, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 24)
27. RHP Nick Nelson, High-A (Pre-Draft: No. 28)
28. SS Diego Castillo, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 25)
29. RHP Rony Garcia, High-A (Pre-Draft: Not Ranked)
30. SS Oswaldo Cabrera, Low-A (Pre-Draft: No. 27)

Olivares is one of my favorite prospects in the system. He’s one of those “does everything well but nothing great” players and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Olivares has been on the disabled list for another a month now with a mystery injury, which stinks. Cabrera is a similar prospect, though I’m less sold on him hitting long-term. Park is basically the opposite. Great tools on the both sides of the ball but he leaves you wanting more.

Gil is a new addition to the list and he’s better than I realized. The Yankees got him from the Twins for Jake Cave back in Spring Training, and the just turned 20-year-old is reportedly sitting 96-98 mph with a few 101s this summer, and his curveball is a true hammer. Gil still needs to figure out control (16.7% walks), but he’s got good size (6-foot-3 and 176 lbs.) and a good two-pitch mix. He’s basically what Deivi Garcia was at this time last year, only with more size and more velocity. I am intrigued.

The 31st Player

31. OF Antonio Cabello, Rookie (Pre-Draft: Not Ranked)

Wade is a few at-bats away from the rookie limit — he actually lost rookie eligibility through service time last year — and once he graduates, everyone in the top 30 moves up a spot and Cabello slides in at No. 30. The Yankees signed him as a catcher last year, moved him to the outfield right away because that’s where his skill set (athleticism, speed, weak arm) fits best, and he’s crushing the ball right now. Cabello is not as good a prospect as the stats (.342/.447/.613) would lead you to believe, but he has bat-to-ball skills and some power, and he can be an asset in the outfield defensively once he gains more experience and improves his reads and routes.

Also considered for the 31st spot were, in alphabetical order, RHP Juan De Paula, 2B Ezequiel Duran, OF Ryder Green, RHP Mike King, RHP Nolan Martinez, RHP Glenn Otto, RHP Erik Swanson, RHP Juan Then, and RHP Alex Vargas. RHP Cody Carroll would’ve been in this mix as well had he not been traded to the Orioles in the Zach Britton trade. Overall there are 31 players ranked here and 40 players mentioned total. Twenty-four of them are pitchers. That’s where the system is right now. Very pitching heavy. Not necessarily a bad thing! Just a bit risky because the attrition rate is so high. That said, all the best young bats in the organization are in the big leagues now, and that’s a good place for them to be.

Baseball’s annual amateur draft will begin Monday, which means all 30 teams are about to add many new players to their organizations. The draft is an exciting time. Thousands of young players will take a step toward achieving their dream of being a big league ballplayer. Only a handful will make it, of course. Even fewer will stick in MLB long-term.

The Yankees came into the season with one of the best farm systems in baseball, and already the system has undergone drastic change. Miguel Andujar, the No. 3 prospect on my preseason top 30 list, has graduated to the big leagues, and both Gleyber Torres (No. 1) and Domingo German (No. 15) will graduate soon. Nick Solak (No. 16), Taylor Widener (No. 22), and Jake Cave (No. 23) have been traded.

With the 2018 draft only a few days away, it’s time for a check-up on the farm system. My annual pre-draft top 30 prospects list is, by far, my least favorite list because it’s prone to small sample size noise and knee-jerk reactions. And there are rarely new players. The Yankees haven’t made any notable trades since Opening Day, so there have been no new names added to the system. Boring!

So, with all that in mind, here is my updated list of the top 30 prospects in the farm system. Feel free to bookmark this post for future mocking purposes.

The Top Prospect

1. IF Gleyber Torres, MLB (Preseason: No. 1)

Torres will lose his prospect eligibility within a week. He is only 17 at-bats short of the 130 at-bat rookie limit. He is under the limit though, so he remains prospect eligible and on my list. Gleyber’s already a star. I mean, he’s only been up a little more than a month and that’s nothing, but you can see it. He has the tools and the athleticism, and everything plays up because his approach is so advanced. Torres has somehow been better than advertised.

The Other Two Top Prospects

2. LHP Justus Sheffield, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 2)
3. OF Estevan Florial, High-A (Preseason: No. 4)

Baseball can be a real jerk sometimes. Case in point: Sheffield (shoulder) and Florial (wrist) have both spent time on the disabled list this season. Sheffield’s shoulder problem was minor — as minor as a shoulder injury can be, anyway — and he returned to the mound after a quick two-week hiatus. Florial will be out until August after having hamate surgery. Sucks.

That said, Sheffield and Florial remain the best the farm system has to offer in the post-Gleyber world, and either guy would be the No. 1 prospect for several other clubs. Sheffield just got to Triple-A and is learning the ropes there. Florial wasn’t hitting for much power before the injury and that’s something the injury could explain. The tools are still there though.

The Big Arm Tier

4. RHP Albert Abreu, High-A (Preseason: No. 5)
5. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, Double-A (Preseason: No. 17)
6. RHP Chance Adams, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 7)
7. RHP Dillon Tate, Double-A (Preseason: No. 8)
8. RHP Luis Medina, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 9)

I’m not big on making sweeping changes to my top 30 prospects list two months into the season, though in Loaisiga’s case, I decided to aggressively run him up the rankings because I so believe in his stuff. Mid-90s gas, out-pitch breaking ball, quality changeup, and he throws strikes. You just have to cross your fingers and hope he stays healthy. The injury history is not pretty — he missed time with a blister last month — but everything else is sooo good.

Abreu is just now starting to get back up to speed after having his appendix removed in Spring Training and starting the season on the disabled list. Adams is trying to get back on track after offseason elbow surgery and things are not going well right now. Would really like to see the 2016 Chance Adams soon. I’d even settle for 2017 Chance Adams at this point. Tate’s been good but I’d really like to see some more strikeouts at some point. Medina is still in Tampa getting ready for the short season leagues.

The Adversity Tier

9. UTIL Tyler Wade, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 6)
10. SS Thairo Estrada, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 10)
11. RHP Freicer Perez, High-A (Preseason: No. 11)
12. RHP Matt Sauer, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 12)
13. RHP Domingo Acevedo, Double-A (Preseason: No. 13)
14. RHP Clarke Schmidt, Rehab (Preseason: No. 14)
15. RHP Trevor Stephan, Double-A (Preseason: No. 21)

Almost everyone in this tier is dealing with or has dealt with some adversity this season. Sauer and Stephan haven’t. Sauer, like Medina, is a teenager getting ready to join a short season affiliate in a few weeks, and Stephan has been very good so far this season.

Everyone else in this tier has dealt with something. Wade didn’t hit a lick during his big league stint (again). Estrada literally got shot. Perez is on the disabled list with a mystery injury. Acevedo missed close to two months with a blister. Schmidt is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Talented, all of them. But they all have some overcoming to do these next few weeks and months.

The In-Between Tier

16. RHP Domingo German, MLB (Preseason: No. 15)
17. SS Kyle Holder, Low-A (Preseason: No. 18)
18. 3B Dermis Garcia, Low-A (Preseason: No. 19)
19. RHP Garrett Whitlock, High-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
20. SS Hoy Jun Park, High-A (Preseason: No. 20)
21. RHP Roansy Contreras, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 24)
22. OF Billy McKinney, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 25)
23. OF Pablo Olivares, Low-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
24. OF Isiah Gilliam, High-A (Preseason: No. 26)
25. SS Diego Castillo, High-A (Preseason: No. 27)

Why call this the in-between tier? Because I think the top 15 prospects in the farm system are pretty clear, and there’s a small army of lower level guys who could slot into the back of the top 30 list. These ten players slot in nicely between the top 15 and all those lower level guys.

Anyway, Whitlock and Olivares are new additions to the top 30. Whitlock has added a four-seamer and upped his velocity since last year’s draft, and Olivares is making the jump from my not top 30 prospects list into the actual top 30 list. None of the other guys in this tier have given me much of a reason to move them up or down the list in a meaningful way. Like I said, I’m not big on overhauling a prospect list two months into the season.

The Sixth Tier

26. RHP Deivi Garcia, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 28)
27. SS Oswaldo Cabrera, Low-A (Preseason: No. 29)
28. RHP Nick Nelson, High-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
29. RHP Alex Vargas, Low-A (Preseason: No. 30)
30. RHP Rony Garcia, Low-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)

Garcia is another preseason not top 30 guy who jumps into the top 30 and will likely be bumped out of the post-draft list. Such is life. Nelson’s fastball/curveball combination is really good and his command seems to be coming along. I wanted to find a spot for him in the preseason top 30 list but just couldn’t do it. The Yankees have about ten other lower level arms who could easily slot into these last few spots. They are not short of interesting pitchers.

The Extra Two

31. RHP Cody Carroll, Triple-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
32. RHP Juan De Paula, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: Not Ranked)

Gleyber is 17 at-bats short of the rookie limit and German is one inning short of the 50-inning rookie limit, so they’re going to graduate this coming week. Once that happens, Carroll and De Paula will shift up and into the top 30. Carroll still has to iron out his command, but an upper-90s fastball with a slider and a splitter will play in relief. De Paula’s one of those many lower level pitchers the Yankees have. Others considered here include RHP Nick Green, RHP Mike King, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Glenn Otto, LHP Josh Rogers, OF Canaan Smith, and RHP Erik Swanson.

The Yankees have several highly regarded prospects slated to come stateside this year, most notably Ezequiel Duran and 2017 bonus babies Everson Pereira and Ronny Rojas. I’ve gotten burned ranking Dominican Summer League kids in the past, so now I wait until they play for one of the domestic affiliates. Just a personal preference. Duran, Pereira, and Rojas should play in rookie ball this summer and all three will factor into the top 30 list down the road. Not now though.

* * *

With Torres and Andujar graduating, plus the natural attrition associated with a pitching heavy system, the farm system will be in worse shape after the season than it is now. Not a doubt about it. Nothing the 2018 draft can do to save the system’s ranking. And that’s fine. Losing top prospects like Gleyber and Andujar to graduation is a good thing! Give me talented young players on the MLB roster over a great farm system every day of the week.

Once upon a time the Yankees had a middling — if not miserable — farm system that failed year after year to supplement the big league roster with cheap and productive talent. Aside from a Brett Gardner here and a David Robertson there, the farm system produced very little from Robinson Cano’s debut through about the middle of the 2015 season.

That has changed. Now? Now the Yankees produce stars. Within the last two and a half years the farm system produced the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up, the unanimous 2017 AL Rookie of the Year and 2017 AL MVP runner-up, and the third place finisher in the 2017 AL Cy Young voting. Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Luis Severino are just the start too. Don’t forget Greg Bird, Jordan Montgomery, or Chad Green. Or all the highly regarded prospects the Yankees cashed in as trade chips.

Suddenly the Yankees are a player development machine. They graduated all that talent, traded all those prospects, and still have a deep farm system. Both Keith Law and Baseball America rank the system as the second best in baseball going into the new season. The Yankees have star power and depth in the farm system. Position players and pitchers. Everything you could want. Well, except catchers. The Yankees are a little short on catching prospects at the moment, but when you have Sanchez at the big league level, that’s not a huge deal.

This is my 12th year — 12th year! — ranking Yankees prospects at RAB, and I’m pretty sure I’ve never considered as many prospects for my annual top 30 prospects list as this year. Some years it was a struggle to get to 30 names. Some years you have a few extra names to consider. This year the list of prospects I seriously considered for the top 30 included 48 names. Guys like Cody Carroll, Ben Heller, and Nick Nelson would’ve been easy top 30 prospects two or three years ago. This year they didn’t make the top 40.

That is my long way of saying the Yankees are loaded with prospects right now. I know we’ve been hearing the system is deep for however many months now, but it is shockingly deep. To see all the names on a list in one place is pretty amazing. The Yankees are drafting well, they’re getting quality players in trades, and they’ve knocked it out of park internationally the last few summers.

As a reminder, I am no expert. I am just a guy with a blog who reads a lot and has opinions about prospects. I’m wrong about players all the time. All the time. Disagree with my rankings? That’s cool. Mock me as you please. There is no correct way to rank prospects. It’s all about balancing upside with probability, and tools with performance. Finding the right balance is tough, and once you think you’ve got it, some prospect changes your mind.

Anyway, all of my top 30 lists are right here. I use the MLB rookie limits of 130 at-bats and 50 innings to determine prospect eligibility. I don’t worry about service time. That stuff is too much of a headache to track. All headshots come from MLB.com or MiLB.com unless noted otherwise. This year’s top 30 prospects are after the jump. Enjoy.
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Each year, soon after the draft signing deadline, I update my top 30 Yankees prospects list to welcome in all the new draftees. This year the signing deadline fell on a Friday, so I decided to wait until the next Friday to release the post-draft top 30 prospects list. Then the Yankees went out and made the big trade with the White Sox, so I decided to hold off until after the trade deadline because it felt like some stuff was about to go down.

Sure enough, it did. In addition to that big trade with the White Sox, the Yankees also used top 30 prospects to acquire Jaime Garcia and Sonny Gray in the days and hours leading up to Monday’s trade deadline. Six potential top 30 prospects were traded away in those deals. Eight of my preseason top 30 prospects are no longer eligible for the list, either because they’ve been traded away or graduated to MLB. Stunning turnover in just a few months.

And yet, the Yankees still have one of the better farm systems in baseball. They came into the season with arguably the best system — the consensus ranking was No. 2 behind the Braves — and just yesterday MLB.com ranked New York’s system the third best in baseball. Baseball America had them seventh. That’s even after all the trades and graduations. They still have some high-end talent, plus tons of depth. There are players who project to be everyday big leaguers outside of my top 30.

So, now that the trade deadline has passed and the dust has settled, it’s time to update my top 30 Yankees prospects. I’ve included each player’s pre-draft ranking for reference, and for fun, I included where each of the traded prospects would have slotted in had they not been traded. I get a lot of “where would this guy rank if he were still in the system?” questions, so I figured I’d answer those right in the list. Here’s my latest top 30. Feel free to make fun of it.

The Top Tier

1. SS Gleyber Torres, Triple-A (Pre-draft: No. 1)
2. OF Clint Frazier, MLB (Pre-draft: No. 2)
OF Blake Rutherford, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 3)
3. LHP Justus Sheffield, Double-A (Pre-draft: No. 4)

Frazier is about two weeks away from losing his prospect status. He’s at 98 big league at-bats right now and the rookie limit is 130. Once he graduates, the top tier will be down to two prospects. Lame! Then again, it’ll be down to two prospects because Frazier and Aaron Judge are in MLB, and Rutherford was traded for pieces who are helping the Yankees try to win the division, so I can’t complain.

Torres is still the undisputed the best prospect in the system right now, even after Tommy John surgery to his non-throwing arm. Everyone seems to expect him to come back just fine next year and that’s good enough for me. Every surgery has risks. This one seems to carry less than most elbow reconstructions. Sheffield is out with an oblique strain himself, which stinks, but at least it’s not his arm. He’s pretty clearly the best pitching prospect in the system in my opinion. Three-pitch lefty with swing-and-miss stuff? Sign me up.

The Other Top Prospects

SS/OF Jorge Mateo, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 5)
4. 3B Miguel Andujar, Triple-A (Pre-draft: No. 6)
5. OF Estevan Florial, High-A (Pre-draft: No. 14)
6. RHP Albert Abreu, High-A (Pre-draft: No. 7)
7. SS/OF Tyler Wade, MLB (Pre-draft: No. 8)
OF Dustin Fowler, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 9)
8. RHP Chance Adams, Triple-A (Pre-draft: No. 10)
9. RHP Dillon Tate, High-A (Pre-draft: No. 12)

This is where I think the depth of the farm system really shines. I’m the low man on Adams but Baseball America (56th) and MLB.com (61st) just ranked him as a top 50-ish prospect in their midseason top 100 lists. I have him eighth in the system. Both Abreu (82nd) and Wade (101st) snuck onto Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects list before the season. Tate was the fourth overall pick — and first pitcher taken — in the draft just two years ago. That’s the kind of talent we’re talking about here.

Andujar is my dude and has been for a while, and he’s making me look smart this year, so thanks Miguel. I get the feeling that, in a year or two, lots of people are going to wonder why he never made a top 100 list. Florial is the biggest riser in the farm system this year. His strikeout rate is a red flag but the tools and athleticism are off the charts, and so is the performance, really. He hit .297/.372/.483 (145 wRC+) with eleven homers and 17 steals in 91 Low-A games as a 19-year-old before being promoted earlier this week. For a while there it looked like Florial would get traded at the deadline, but nope. He remains and Fowler went instead.

The Upside Arms

RHP James Kaprielian, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 11)
10. RHP Matt Sauer, Rookie (Pre-draft: Not eligible)
11. RHP Domingo Acevedo, High-A (Pre-draft: No. 13)
12. RHP Domingo German, Triple-A (Pre-draft: No. 15)
13. RHP Clarke Schmidt, Rehab (Pre-draft: Not eligible)
14. RHP Jorge Guzman, Short Season (Pre-draft: Unranked)

Things just kinda fell into place here. A bunch of power arms with upside and also some risk were bunched together in my rankings. Sauer, Acevedo, and Guzman all throw heat but come with command questions. German is in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery and Schmidt is rehabbing from elbow construction right now. A healthy Schmidt would have ranked higher, though not much. Probably ahead of German and that’s about it.

The big riser here is Guzman, who came over from the Astros with Abreu in the Brian McCann trade. He did not make my pre-draft top 30 list, which was an oversight on my part. I should have had him in the top 30. Guzman has been electric with Short Season Staten Island so far this year, throwing 42.2 innings with a 2.53 ERA (3.03 FIP) and a 56/13 K/BB ratio. Fastball that routinely touches 100 mph, promising secondary stuff, and improving control? Guzman is someone who will really shoot up the rankings over the next year.

The Mid-Range Bats

15. 3B Dermis Garcia, Low-A (Pre-draft: No. 21)
16. SS Thairo Estrada, Double-A (Pre-draft: No. 18)
17. SS Hoy Jun Park, Low-A (Pre-draft: No. 16)
18. C Donny Sands, Low-A (Pre-draft: No. 24)
RHP Zack Littell, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 29)
LHP Ian Clarkin, Traded (Pre-draft: No. 19)
19. SS Wilkerman Garcia, Short Season (Pre-draft: No. 17)
20. 2B Nick Solak, Double-A (Pre-draft: Unranked)

Even considering that last pitcher tier, this might be the riskiest prospect tier in my rankings. Garcia — Dermis, not Wilkerman — has easily the most power in the system, but he’s also swing-and-miss prone and not that great defensively. The other Garcia has solid all-around tools but has struggled to put it all together and stay healthy the last 18 months. Sands is a third baseman learning to catch, and a high-contact hitter without much power. His prospect stock is really riding on the whole catching thing working out.

Estrada and Solak are the “safest” bets among the players in this tier — I say “safest” because there’s no such thing as a safe prospect — because they’re both all-fields hitters who have the uncanny ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball, and they’ll both take their walks too. Thairo is a better defender and capable of playing shortstop, which is why he’s higher in my rankings. I see similar offensive upside and more defensive value. And he’s a full year younger too.

The Bottom Ten

21. OF Jake Cave, Triple-A (Pre-draft: Unranked)
22. OF Billy McKinney, Triple-A (Pre-draft: No. 27)
23. 1B Tyler Austin, MLB (Pre-draft: No. 20)
24. RHP Freicer Perez, Low-A (Pre-draft: Unranked)
25. RHP Nolan Martinez, Rookie (Pre-draft: No. 26)
26. RHP Drew Finley, Short Season (Pre-draft: No. 25)
27. SS Kyle Holder, High-A (Pre-draft: No. 23)
28. LHP Josh Rogers, Double-A (Pre-draft: No. 22)
29. RHP Ben Heller, Triple-A (Pre-draft: Unranked)
30. RHP Trevor Stephan (Pre-draft: Not eligible)

Lots and lots and lots of candidates for the back of the top 30, so it comes down to personal preference. Among those who were considered: SS Oswaldo Cabrera, RHP Cody Carroll, SS Diego Castillo, RHP J.P. Feyereisen, OF Isiah Gilliam, RHP Nick Green, RHP Ronald Herrera, RHP Jonathan Holder, OF Leonardo Molina, OF Pablo Olivares, RHP Erik Swanson, C Saul Torres, RHP Taylor Widener, and RHP Alex Vargas.

Cave and McKinney were two of the hardest players to rank. I feel like I’m going out on a limb a bit with Cave. He’s always had ability and he’s been in my top 30 lists before, but now the performance has been so great that it’s hard to ignore. Even if he’s a platoon left-handed bat long-term — Cave is hitting .358/.405/.672 against righties and .250/.315/.440 against lefties this year — Cave can play center field and run. He does a lot of things.

McKinney, on the other hand, is basically all bat. He’s not much of a defender and he’s relegated to an outfield corner. McKinney might also be a platoon left-handed bat — he’s hitting .289/.365/.532 against righties and .252/.319/.437 against lefties — except you’re not getting the defense and baserunning. I know he’s a former first round pick and all that, but I feel like the end game here is … Seth Smith? Seth Smith is a good player! He’s been in the league a decade. But that feels like McKinney’s upside to me.

I really like Martinez and Finley and just wish they’d get healthy, stay healthy, and put together consistently strong performances at some point. That’s unfair to Martinez because he was just drafted last year, but you know what I mean. I’m eager to see more from him. With Holder, I’m still betting on the elite defense being a carrying tool. If he can hit enough to be, say, a 90 OPS+ guy who bats ninth long-term, he’ll end up a +3 WAR player with his glove. Heller … man I just wish the Yankees would give him a look already. Something more than shuttle call-ups here and there.

* * *

I didn’t love the Yankees’ draft this year, though I do think the “take the injured guy first and an over-slot guy second” strategy was Plan B. I think they were planning to use their first rounder on a player who came off the board before their pick came around, so they called an audible. In my idiot blogger opinion, there were comparable arms still on the board when the Yankees picked Schmidt, except those guys were healthy. Healthy pitchers are cool.

Last year the Yankees really stocked the system at the trade deadline and this year has been about unpacking the system. Get the guys to the big leagues you plan to build around and trade from the depth before you start losing players for nothing through the Rule 5 Draft or on waivers. Littell and Clarkin were both potential 40-man roster crunch casualties after the season, as were other traded prospects like Dietrich Enns, Yefry Ramirez, and Tito Polo.

The farm system right now is not as strong as it was six months ago, though for the right reasons. The Yankees have graduated players to the big leagues and used others in trades to bolster the MLB roster for a postseason push. And those trades brought in controllable players like Gray and Tommy Kahnle. Not only rentals. New York still has a deep system with upside, and the big league roster is looking better and more exciting than it has in years.

Baseball’s annual amateur draft will begin Monday, which means all 30 teams are about to add many new players to their farm systems. The draft is an exciting time. Thousands of young players will take a step toward achieving their dream of being a big league ballplayer. Only a handful will make it, of course. Even fewer will stick in MLB long-term.

The Yankees currently boast one of the best farm systems in baseball, and that’s even after graduating several high-end young players to show the last two years. Already this year three players from my preseason top 30 prospects list have exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility: Aaron Judge (No. 3), Jordan Montgomery (No. 13), and Chad Green (No. 20). Jonathan Holder wasn’t on my top 30, but he’ll graduate to MLB soon too.

With the 2017 draft only a few days away, it’s time for something of a check-up on the farm system. My annual pre-draft top 30 prospects list is, by far, my least favorite list because it’s prone to small sample size noise and knee-jerk reactions. And there are rarely new players. The Yankees haven’t made any trades yet this year, so there have been no new names added to the system.

So, with all that in mind, here is my updated list of the top 30 prospects in the farm system. Feel free to bookmark this post and mock me in the future.

The Tippy Top Prospects

1. SS Gleyber Torres, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 1)
2. OF Clint Frazier, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 2)
3. OF Blake Rutherford, Low-A (Preseason: No. 4)
4. LHP Justus Sheffield, Double-A (Preseason: No. 6)

These four are clearly the top four prospects in the system, in my opinion, and yet there’s enough separation between them that figuring out the exact order is easy. Gleyber is one of the five best prospects in baseball and is knocking on the door at Triple-A. Both Frazier and Rutherford have a chance to be impact bats, and with Frazier in Triple-A and Rutherford in Low-A, Frazier gets the nod at No. 2. Sheffield is the top pitching prospect in the farm system and I don’t think it’s all that close either. We should really talk about him more. A 21-year-old three-pitch southpaw having success at Double-A is a hell of a prospect.

The Other Top Prospects

5. SS/CF Jorge Mateo, High-A (Preseason: No. 7)
6. 3B Miguel Andujar, Double-A (Preseason: No. 8)
7. RHP Albert Abreu, Low-A (Preseason: No. 9)
8. UTIL Tyler Wade, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 10)
9. OF Dustin Fowler, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 12)
10. RHP Chance Adams, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 11)

The six players in his tier are almost interchangeable. They really are. If you believe that, say, Fowler should rank fifth and Mateo should be tenth, it would in no way be unreasonable. These six players are all borderline top 100 prospects — Mateo has been on more than a few top 100 lists over the years, and so far this year we’ve seen Abreu (Baseball Prospectus), Wade (Baseball Prospectus), Adams (MLB.com), and Fowler (MLB.com and FanGraphs) make some top 100 lists — who would make every top 150 list.

I’m sticking with my preseason guns with Mateo even though he’s given folks every reason to drop him in their prospect rankings. He’s hitting .249/.292/.409 (99 wRC+) while repeating High-A this year after hitting .254/.306/.379 (99 wRC+) at the level last year. Dude. I’m inclined to cut him some slack because he’s learning center field, but still. Mateo needs to start hitting and soon. I’ve long been an Andujar believer, which is why I still have him over the Triple-A guys despite their success.

The Damaged Prospects

11. RHP James Kaprielian, High-A (Preseason: No. 5)
12. RHP Dillon Tate, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 14)

Sigh. Things never go according to plan. Kaprielian looked good in the Arizona Fall League last year and he nearly made it through Spring Training in one piece this year. Then his elbow started barking again, and soon thereafter he underwent Tommy John surgery. He’ll be out until midseason 2018, most likely. The persistent elbow trouble is too much to ignore. Kaprielian is going to miss close to two full seasons with elbow woes, which is why he dropped in the rankings.

I know it seems Tate has moved up two spots since the preseason top 30, but he really hasn’t. He’s in the same spot. Two players ahead of him on the preseason list (Judge and Montgomery) graduated, which is why he went from No. 14 to No. 12. Anyway, Tate has yet to pitch in an official game this season due to a shoulder issue. Last we heard, farm system head Gary Denbo said Tate was getting “close,” whatever that means. That was 18 days ago.

The International Players

13. RHP Domingo Acevedo, Double-A (Preseason: No. 15)
14. OF Estevan Florial, High-A (Preseason: No. 16)
15. RHP Domingo German, Triple-A (Preseason: No. 24)
16. SS Hoy Jun Park, Low-A (Preseason: No. 17)
17. SS Wilkerman Garcia, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 18)
18. SS Thairo Estrada, Double-A (Preseason: No. 27)

German is the biggest riser from the preseason list. He’s further away from Tommy John surgery and reports indicate he’s throwing fire, regularly sitting 94-96 mph and touching 99 mph. German has also reached Triple-A after a quick stop at Double-A and has acquitted himself well. He’s going to pitch in the big leagues this year. It wouldn’t completely shock me if he were to get the call to make a spot start soon, even over Adams, especially since German is on the 40-man roster.

Acevedo and Florial have two of the highest ceilings in the farm system and they’ve done nothing but impress so far this season, which is nice to see. Estrada is the other big mover on the pre-draft list. I’ve been an unabashed Thairo fan for a few years now, and he’s making me look smart by hitting .326/.402/.442 (140 wRC+) with the same number of walks as strikeouts (21 each) as a 21-year-old in Double-A. Contact skills and defensive versatility on the infield will serve him well long-term. I get the sense he’s a trade chip for the Yankees more than anything.

The Former Top Prospects

19. LHP Ian Clarkin, High-A (Preseason: No. 19)
20. 1B/OF Tyler Austin, Triple-A (Preseason: No 21)

Once upon a time, Clarkin and Austin could be found near the top of a top 30 Yankees prospects list. Clarkin as a former first round pick and Austin as a late-round pick who annihilated minor league pitching. Both have seen their stock drop in recent years due to injury. Clarkin missed the 2015 season with an elbow issue, missed the second half of 2016 with knee surgery, and missed a few weeks this year with a sore shoulder. He’s healthy now though.

Austin reached the big leagues last season after years of wrist problems and poor performance. A fluke ankle injury suffered in Spring Training delayed the start of his season, and it wasn’t until the middle of last month that he started a minor league rehab assignment. The Yankees activated and optioned Austin to Triple-A earlier this week. We’ll see him again at some point soon. I don’t think he’ll be prospect eligible much longer.

The Bottom Ten

21. 3B Dermis Garcia, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 23)
22. LHP Josh Rogers, Double-A (Preseason: No. 25)
23. SS Kyle Holder, High-A (Preseason: No. 26)
24. C Donny Sands, Low-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
25. RHP Drew Finley, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: No. 28)
26. RHP Nolan Martinez, Extended Spring Training (Preseason: Not Ranked)
27. OF Billy McKinney, Double-A (Preseason: No. 22)
28. OF Leonardo Molina, Low-A (Preseason: No. 30)
29. RHP Zack Littell, High-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)
30. RHP Yefry Ramirez, Double-A (Preseason: Not Ranked)

Three players graduated to MLB (Judge, Montgomery, Green) and four players were added to the list (Sands, Martinez, Littell, Ramirez). The other player who dropped off: OF Mason Williams. He was No. 29 on my preseason list. He’s going to be 26 in August and he’s hitting .236/.281/.251 (48 wRC+) in Triple-A, so it’s time to cut bait. There are too many other quality prospects in the farm system to keep Williams in the top 30.

Anyway, McKinney’s drop is second largest only to Kaprielian, and at least Kaprielian has the injury excuse. McKinney is healthy and still hitting .206/.306/.350 (82 wRC+) in his third try at Double-A. Remember how great he looked in Spring Training? Spring Training lies, man. McKinney’s a bat only prospect. He has to hit to have any value whatsoever, and he’s not hitting. At least Kyle Holder can fall back on his glove, you know?

The new additions are all players who were seriously considered for the preseason list, so it’s not like they’re jumping into the top 30 after toiling in obscurity. Sands is progressing well behind the plate as a converted third baseman, and over the last few weeks his bat has really come alive too. Martinez, last year’s third rounder, is very similar to Finley in that he’s an advanced high school starter with a deep repertoire. I’m looking forward to following him once the short season leagues start later this month.

Littell is having an excellent statistical season (1.94 ERA and 3.46 FIP) and it’s probably only a matter of time until he gets bumped up to Double-A. He has a starter’s repertoire and a ton of pitching know-how. I’m a fan. Yefry has three sneaky good pitches and is having success at Double-A (2.52 ERA and 3.55 FIP). Guys like that normally rank in the top 15 somewhere. In this farm system, he’s No. 30. Pretty sweet minor league Rule 5 Draft pick, I’d say. Odds are both of these guys will get pushed out by 2017 draftees when I put together the post-draft list.

Among the other players considered for the back-end of this updated top 30 prospects list were, in alphabetical order, IF Abi Avelino, IF Oswaldo Cabrera, LHP Daniel Camarena, SS Diego Castillo, RHP Jorge Guzman, RHP Ben Heller, RHP Ronald Herrera, RHP Jonathan Holder, RHP Freicer Perez, and 2B Nick Solak. Not being able to squeeze some of those guys into the list, particularly Castillo and Guzman, surprised me. The Yankees are still loaded in the minors.

Over the last 14 months or so, the Yankees went from having a promising middle of the pack farm system to arguably the best system in all of baseball. They sold at the trade deadline for the first time in nearly three decades, and the trading of veterans for prospects continued this offseason. The Yankees have acquired six of my top 30 prospects (and five of my top 15) since last July, plus two others who were among the final cuts.

The trades are not the only reason New York’s farm system has morphed into one of baseball’s best, however. A strong 2016 draft as well as several breakout (and bounce back) seasons from prospects already in the system helped as well. It would be wrong to say everything went right in the farm system last year. Only most things went right. It’s hard to think of a better possible season on the minor league side.

Amazingly, the Yankees have arguably the game’s top system despite graduating four of last year’s top 30 prospects to MLB, most notably No. 2 prospect Gary Sanchez. Fellow 2016 top ten prospects Rob Refsnyder (No. 6) and Bryan Mitchell (No. 7) also graduated to the big leagues last year, as did Luis Cessa (No. 26). Four others from last year’s top 30 are no longer in the organization due to trades (Ben Gamel), releases (Slade Heathcott, Jacob Lindgren), and the Rule 5 Draft (Luis Torrens). Thirteen of last year’s top 30 prospects are not on this year’s list for whatever reason.

This is, ridiculously, my 11th top 30 prospects list here at RAB. It still feels like just yesterday we were dreaming on guys like Jose Tabata and Christian Garcia. Good times. Good times. You can see all my previous top 30 lists right here. Obligatory reminder: I do not claim to be an expert. I’m just a guy who likes to read about prospects and rank them on my free of charge weblog. Disagree with the rankings? That’s cool. Mock me as you see fit.

For prospect eligibility, I stick with the MLB rookie limits of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched. Why at-bats and not plate appearances? Who knows. Also, I don’t pay attention to service time — players lose rookie eligibility once they accrue 45 days of service time outside September — because it’s not worth the effort to track. As always, prospect ranking is about balancing upside with probability, present skills with projection, and performance with tools. Everyone balances those things differently. It would be boring if we all did it all the same.

I liked the way the format worked out last year, so I stuck with it again this time around. All head shot photos come from MLB.com and MiLB.com. This year’s top 30 is after the jump. Enjoy.

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