Aiken, 18, left Thursday’s start after only 12 pitches. The home plate umpire told Josh Norris it was an arm problem — “The last pitch was a curveball. I don’t know if that’s related … But that’s all I heard, that he had a little bit of tightness in his arm. That’s what he told his coaching staff,” said the ump — but nothing has been confirmed. In fact, Keith Law hears Aiken may make his next start, indicating the injury is not serious.
Yankees amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer was among the 75-100 scouts on hand for Aiken’s outing, reports Norris. New York holds the 16th overall pick this year and a healthy Aiken won’t make it that far. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report on Aiken, who they ranked as the third best prospect in the 2015 draft:
Aiken had no physical problems as a senior at San Diego’s Cathedral Catholic High, showing advanced command of a fastball that sat at 92-94 mph and reached 97. He added more power and depth to his curveball and displayed one of the best changeups in the 2014 Draft, featuring deception and tumbling action … Aiken also earned points for his makeup.
Healthy Aiken is, at worst, a top five pick in this year’s relatively thin draft class. Injured Aiken is another matter. His draft slot would depend on the severity of the injury. The Astros agreed to sign him for $6.5M last year but backed out after his physical due to a concern about his ulnar collateral ligament and the possibility of Tommy John surgery in the near future.
There is plenty of precedent for drafting a pitcher with a damaged UCL. The Yankees drafted Andrew Brackman in the first round of the 2007 draft knowing he’d need his elbow rebuild, for example. The Nationals selected Lucas Giolito with the 16th pick in 2012 knowing he’d need Tommy John surgery as well. Giolito was a first overall pick candidate before his elbow started barking, and he has since developed into the game’s top pitching prospect. Jeff Hoffman (ninth overall) and Erick Fedde (18th) were first rounders last year after having Tommy John surgery just weeks before the draft.
The Yankees were scouting Aiken because they scout everyone — even if they know they are unlikely to have a chance to draft him, they still want to they keep track of his development in case he becomes available in a trade or as a free agent down the road — and I think they would jump at the chance to draft him 16th overall, healthy elbow or not. They never get a chance to select the top draft talents and Aiken is right up their alley as big (6-foot-4, 205 lbs.) power lefty with command. The elbow would make him risky, no doubt, but the reward is potentially great.