It’s the final home series of the season. The Red Sox are in the Bronx for a four-game set starting tonight, and if all goes as planned, the Yankees will clinch a postseason berth at Yankee Stadium this week. The Yankees are 10-5 against the Red Sox this year, but only 3-3 at Yankee Stadium. They’ve won each of the last four series these two teams have played.
What Have The Red Sox Done Lately?
The Red Sox swept the Orioles at home this weekend, and they didn’t just sweep them, they shut them out all three game. They outscored the O’s 17-0 in the three games. Boston is 75-80 with a -6 run differential overall, good for fourth place in the AL East race. Their tragic number is one, so the Yankees can officially eliminate the BoSox from postseason contention this series. That’ll be sweet.
Offense & Defense
The Red Sox are averaging 4.65 runs per game with a team 98 wRC+ this season, but they’ve been much better of late, averaging 5.21 runs per game with a team 107 wRC+ since the All-Star break. They’re without OF Hanley Ramirez (89 wRC+) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (75 wRC+), who are done for the season with a shoulder injury and pneumonia, respectively. A total of 957 position players have appeared in a game in 2015. Sandoval and Hanley are tied for 957th with -1.9 fWAR. Woof.
Interim manager Torey Lovullo — manager John Farrell is away from the team undergoing cancer treatment — still builds his lineup around DH David Ortiz (134 wRC+), who, after a slow start, has typical David Ortiz numbers now. OF Mookie Betts (116 wRC+) and SS Xander Bogaerts (112 wRC+) have been Boston’s two best players this year, and 2B Dustin Pedroia (120 wRC+) just recently returned from his latest injury. UTIL Brock Holt (101 wRC+) is now filling at third after playing second while Pedroia was out.
OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (122 wRC+) and OF Rusney Castillo (81 wRC+) surround Betts in the outfield — Bradley had that insane hot streak a few weeks but has cooled off big time recently — and IF Travis Shaw (120 wRC+) is getting most of the playing time at first base. C Blake Swihart (86 wRC+) and C Ryan Hanigan (84 wRC+) share catching duties. The crop of September call-ups features C Sandy Leon, IF Deven Marrero, and IF Josh Rutledge.
The Red Sox have a very good team defense now that Hanley and Sandoval are out of the picture. Betts, Bradley, and Castillo are all good to great in the outfield and both Pedroia and Bogaerts are strong up the middle. Shaw and Holt are fine on the corners. Not great but not a disaster either. Hanigan rates as a strong pitch-framer while Swihart is average. Both throw out an average number of base-stealers too.
Pitching Matchups
Monday (7pm ET): RHP Ivan Nova (vs. BOS) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. NYY)
This has been a good but not great rookie campaign for the 22-year-old Rodriguez, who has a 3.97 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 20 starts and 115.2 innings. The BoSox have been spacing out his starts of late to control his workload. Rodriguez has average-ish peripherals across the board — 18.8 K%, 7.3 BB%, 43.4 GB%, and 1.01 HR/9 — and has been much better against righties (.292 wOBA) than lefties (.359 wOBA). That’s because no one bites on his mid-80s slider. He has nothing for lefties other than his mid-90s four-seamer. Rodriguez does have a good mid-80s changeup though. The Yankees have faced Rodriguez three times this year and they’ve scored exactly two runs all three times (6.1 innings, seven innings, and five innings.)
Tuesday (7pm ET): TBA vs. LHP Wade Miley (vs. NYY)
Miley, 28, has a 4.39 ERA (3.81 FIP) in 188.2 innings across 31 starts in his first season with the Red Sox. Neither his strikeout (17.9%) nor walk (7.5%) rates are anything special, though both his grounder (48.9%) and homer (0.81 HR/9) numbers are better than average. That’s his game, getting ground balls. Righties (.326 wOBA) have had a little more success against him than lefties (.294 wOBA). Miley works right around 90 mph with both his two and four-seam fastballs, in the low-80s with his slider and changeup, and in the upper-70s with his curveball. The curve is his seldom-used fifth pitch. He also works extremely fast. Gets the ball and throws it, no walking around or anything. Miley has seen the Yankees three times this year: two runs in 5.1 innings in April, three runs in seven innings in May, and six runs in 5.1 innings in July.
Wednesday (7pm ET): TBA vs. RHP Rick Porcello (vs. NYY)
The overall numbers are ugly (5.04 ERA and 4.29 FIP) but the 26-year-old Porcello has been much better in six starts since coming off the DL (2.98 ERA and 3.10 FIP). That’s not necessarily a “he’s healthy now” thing. It’s more of a “they let him focus on his sinker again” thing. Porcello’s strikeout (19.9%) and grounder (45.5%) rates are about average, his walk rate (5.3%) is very good, and his homer rate (1.38 HR/9) is very bad. He’s also been hit much harder by lefties (.358 wOBA) than righties (.326 wOBA). Both Porcello’s sinker and four-seamer sit in the low-90s, and his go-to offspeed pitch is a mid-70s curveball. He’ll also throw mid-80s sliders and low-80s changeups. Believe it or not, the Yankees have faced Porcello just once this year, scoring three runs (one earned) in eight innings earlier this month.
Thursday (7pm ET): TBA vs. LHP Rich Hill (vs. NYY)
Baseball is weird, man. Hill, now 35, started his career as a promising starter with the Cubs from 2005-07, then he suddenly couldn’t throw strikes in 2008. He moved to the bullpen, bounced around from 2009-14 — he appeared in 14 games for the Yankees last September — and wound up in an independent league earlier this season. Hill moved back into the rotation with the Long Island Ducks, dominated in two starts (11 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 21 K), got scooped up by Boston, and now he’s in their rotation. Naturally, Hill has a 1.17 ERA (1.63 FIP) in three starts with the Red Sox this month. He’s struck out 30, walked two, and allowed ten hits. For what it’s worth, Hill attributes his newfound success to being “able to figure out the most efficient way for me to pitch.” He chalks it all up to experience. There’s been no change in his stuff at all — four-seamer right around 90 mph, a big-breaking curve in the low-70s, and a few low-80s changeups per start — so I guess it’s just a matter of throwing strikes and whatnot. Baseball, man.
Meanwhile, aside from Nova, the Yankees rotation remains unsettled this week because of Masahiro Tanaka’s hamstring. He could return pretty much any day now, though Thursday is the absolutely latest he could start a game and then be available for the wildcard game next Tuesday. That’s the deadline, basically. So the Yankees are currently listing three TBAs while they wait for Tanaka to get the okay.
Bullpen Status
The Boston bullpen has been a weakness all season, and they’re now without closer RHP Koji Uehara and setup man RHP Junichi Tazawa. Uehara was hit by a comebacker and broke his wrist, and Tazawa was shut down because his workload was getting crazy. RHP Jean Machi (5.20 ERA/4.58 FIP) and LHP Robbie Ross Jr. (3.99/4.05) have taken over as Lovullo’s late-inning duo.
LHP Tommy Layne (4.08/3.74) is the matchup lefty while RHP Alexi Ogando (4.19/5.49) and RHP Noe Ramirez (4.38/6.15 in limited time) will see some setup work because there are no other options. LHP Craig Breslow (4.22/5.11) is also in the mix. RHP Jonathan Aro, RHP Matt Barnes, RHP Ryan Cook, RHP Heath Hembree, and RHP Roman Mendez are the extra September arms. Ramirez, Layne, and Ross pitched yesterday.
Keep tabs on Joe Girardi’s relief crew with out Bullpen Workload page. Over the Monster is the place to go for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.
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