River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Hot Stove League

Luis Severino’s injury and the Dallas Keuchel question

by

(Elsa/Getty)

In a season full of injuries, the Yankees received some of their worst news yet yesterday afternoon. Luis Severino has been shut down six weeks with a Grade II lat strain. He was expected back from rotator cuff inflammation sometime next month. Now Severino is looking at a mid-to-late June return at the earliest. It is entirely possible the Yankees will be without their ace until the All-Star break.

“I don’t know if ‘relief’ is the right word, but a little bit like, ‘Okay, now we know what it is.’ A little relief that it’s not going to be a surgery thing,” Aaron Boone said to Cole Harvey following last night’s game. “Obviously it’s going to take a little more time now, but a little comfort in knowing this is what it is. It appears to be treatable. Just got to take some time and hopefully we’ll get a healthy, strong, and fresh Sevy back for a good portion of the season.”

The Yankees are getting CC Sabathia back this weekend, which will help. He’s not the workhorse he was in his prime, but the guy he’s replacing (Jonathan Loaisiga) has thrown seven innings in two starts, and that couldn’t continue. Domingo German will remain in the rotation for the time being and hopefully J.A. Happ turns things around soon. Clearly, the Yankees are missing Severino.

Given Severino’s injury, it’s only natural to wonder whether the Yankees will (or should) pursue the still unsigned Dallas Keuchel. He is the best (only, really) available starter on the free agent market and, when you lose an important player to injury, signing the best free agent is an easy solution. At least among fans. Teams tend to think a little differently. Let’s talk out the Yankees and Keuchel, shall we?

1. When will he even be ready? A good question. Ken Rosenthal says Keuchel is throwing 95-pitch simulated games every five days as he waits to sign, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s MLB ready. Gio Gonzalez was throwing on his own this spring, yet when he took the mound with the Yankees last month (and Triple-A Scranton last week), he was not sharp at all. Keuchel’s pitch count is built up. Being game ready is another matter.

It seems the best case scenario here is Keuchel joining the rotation after two minor league tune-up starts*. One to get out there and face hitters in a competitive environment, and another to fine tune things and fix whatever didn’t feel right the first time out. I guess that means Keuchel could join the Yankees at the end of the month? That’s pretty good. You don’t get him right away but you do get him soon enough and for most of the season.

* Keuchel has a minor league option remaining and can be sent down easily. Players at his service time level can reject a minor league assignment and usually do, but in this case he’d be signing with the knowledge that he needs some minor league starts to get up to speed. This is exactly what the Orioles and Alex Cobb did last year. He was optioned down after signing to make tune-up starts.

That all said, I’m only guesstimating with two tune-up starts. It could be one, it could be two, it could be four. Who knows? At this point whichever team signs Keuchel will sign him with the understanding he won’t jump into their rotation immediately. The goal is having him for most of the season. The more the better, but if he needs three tune-up starts instead of two, so be it. Eventually Keuchel will be game ready. Maybe sooner, maybe later.

2. How effective will Keuchel be going forward? Keuchel is now four years removed from his Cy Young season and, in three seasons and 518.1 innings since, he has a 3.77 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 3.78 FIP. Last year he had a 3.74 ERA (108 ERA+) and a 3.69 FIP in 204.2 innings. That’s good. It’s not great, but it’s good. At age 31, it seems Keuchel’s very best years are behind him, and he’s now more of a solid innings eater type than a true dominator.

The worry here is that several underlying numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Most notably, Keuchel’s ground ball rate dropped 13 percentage points last year, his chase rate dropped four percentage points, and his zone rate increased seven percentage points. At his peak, Keuchel got hitters to expand the zone and make weak contact. They didn’t expand as much last year, so he had to come in the zone more often, and the result was harder contact.

There seems to be the prevailing thought that command pitchers age better, which is one of those things that sounds like true, but do we have any evidence is it true? Guys like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina were Hall of Fame talents and we shouldn’t expect anyone to age like them. Andy Pettitte? He threw harder as a 41-year-old in 2013 (89.8 mph average fastball) than Keuchel did as a 30-year-old in 2018 (89.5 mph).

A once elite ground ball/good strikeout pitcher losing both ground balls and strikeouts is a red flag, especially since Keuchel’s stuff doesn’t give him much margin for error. He’s a five-pitch guy and wily, and he’s proven himself in big games, but at age 31 he pitches like a 36-year-old after he loses his stuff. The fact Keuchel remains unsigned leads me to believe at least a few teams are worried about his effectiveness long-term. There’s definite value in being a 180-inning league average starter. That might only be the ceiling here going forward though.

3. So what’s it going to cost? Beats me. This past weekend Ken Rosenthal reported Keuchel wants a one-year deal north of the $17.9M qualifying offer he rejected in November, or a multi-year deal at a lower annual salary. The problem is Rosenthal cited an executive “under the impression” those are Keuchel’s demands, which doesn’t sound too reliable. Clearly, Keuchel wants more than whatever teams are offering right now.

Two things to keep in mind here. One, the Yankees are already over the $226M second luxury tax tier. Cot’s has their luxury tax payroll at $226.7M right now. As a first time offender, their second tier luxury tax rate is 32%. Effectively, every $1 the Yankees give Keuchel will cost them $1.32 due to the luxury tax. It’s real money and it adds up quick. I couldn’t possibly care less about the Steinbrenners having to pay more to field a good team. They sure care though.

And two, Keuchel is attached to draft pick compensation, which is a cost that has to be considered. Because they neither paid luxury tax nor received revenue sharing last year, the Yankees have to surrender their second highest 2019 draft pick and $500,000 in 2019-20 international bonus money to sign a qualified free agent. Their second highest pick right now is the Competitive Balance Pick they received in the Sonny Gray trade. The 37th overall pick.

Giving up your second round pick when it’ll be the 60-something overall selection to sign a qualified free agent is no big deal. Do that every day of the week when you’re a win-now team. Giving up the 37th overall pick and roughly $2M in bonus pool money? Eh, that’s a tougher pill to swallow. The Yankees could wait until after the draft in June to sign Keuchel and keep the pick. The downside is he could sign elsewhere, and you’re not getting him until midseason and missing out on a bunch of starts between now and then.

I am generally a win-now guy, so if the Yankees believe Keuchel can be effective and will increase their chances of winning the AL East and the World Series, go for it. Give up the pick. The larger question is the contract. Does he take a one-year deal or does he insist on a multi-year contract? I’d be all for a one-year contract. Giving Keuchel multiple years doesn’t excite me at all though. There’s way more downside than upside at this point of his career.

* * *

Keuchel is the only viable starting pitcher sitting in free agency and I have no doubt he and agent Scott Boras are waiting for a contending team to suffer an injury and become desperate. That is pretty much where the Yankees are with Severino. He has a new injury and is at least two months away from returning. That’s bad news. Even with Sabathia coming back this weekend, one more rotation injury would leave the Yankees scrambling.

The Yankees had no interest in Keuchel over the winter — they were not connected him to him once, which was unusual because they’re usually connected to everyone — which I guess makes sense. They like their high spin bat-missers and that definitely does not describe Keuchel. Beggars can’t be choosers though, and right now Keuchel is easily the best freely available starting pitcher. Spend some cash (and give up a draft pick) and he’s yours, just like that.

My guess is the Yankees will stick with Domingo German for the time being, and see how Gio Gonzalez looks before his April 20th opt-out. He was excellent last night and there’s enough time for Gonzalez to make two more Triple-A starts before the opt-out date. These days the Yankees are all about finding internal solutions first, and if those don’t work, only then do they go outside the organization. I have no reason to believe that’ll change even with Severino’s new injury and Keuchel sitting out there.

Someone Needs to Sign Craig Kimbrel. Why Not the Yankees?

by

Added Benefit: Shaving That Beard (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

The Yankees will open their season in five days against the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx. In a normal offseason, there would be no more prize free agents still available, but this is not one of those offseasons. Instead, Craig Kimbrel remains without a home, less than a week before camp breaks for the regular season, and until extremely recently, there has been almost zero indication that even a single team is interested in signing him. That should change – and it should be the Yankees that finally do.

Let me be clear about something up front: I am not under any illusion that this is plausible or even realistic. I am aware that signing Kimbrel would require paying him an annual salary of millions of dollars. I am aware of the luxury tax, and where the Yankees’ payroll currently sits. I am aware that those factors have kept Kimbrel off the Yanks’ radar for almost six months. But I am also aware that there is a convincing case to be made that the Yankees should sign Craig Kimbrel. Let’s walk through it.

He is Extremely, Extremely Good

Baseball writers were once famous for arguing that [Insert One-Hit Wonder Reliever Here] was the “Next Mariano” during Rivera’s long career, to the point that it became somewhat of a running joke among fans. That was for good reason – there was and will always be only one Mariano, and most of the anointed relievers returned to ignominy shortly thereafter. Not Craig Kimbrel, though.

Kimbrel’s stats through 532.2 career innings are simply breathtaking. He’s fanned 14.6 batters per 19 innings pitched, which amounts to 41.6% of the batters he’s ever faced when considered another way. His 1.91 ERA adjusts to a ridiculous 47 ERA- and is supported by a 1.96 FIP. He’s stranded over 84% of inherited runners on base. He’s been worth over 20 bWAR and recorded 333 saves in 367 chances. That’s 90%. He’s done all this over 9 years, a true rarity among elite relief pitchers not named Mo.

That remained true last year, despite his “advanced” age of 31, too. In 62.1 innings with Boston, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA and struck out nearly 40 percent of the batters he faced. His critics will tell you that he walked too many batters (12%) and that he always has; they are right but miss the forest for the trees here. It’s hardly a stretch to say that he’s the 2nd best reliever in modern history, if not all-time, behind Mariano. He’d make any bullpen better – even the already-dominant one in New York.

Bullpen Uncertainty

This brings us to the next point: even though the Yankees should have one of the best bullpens in league history in 2019, the reality is that we just don’t know what will happen. Just look at last year, when the same was true. The Yankees still needed to add Zack Britton at the deadline due to a slate of unexpected midsummer injuries. Already, the Yanks are without Dellin Betances because of injury, and while that’s expected to be a brief IL stint, you can never be too sure.

Adding Kimbrel would help bolster the bullpen even more, making it nearly impossible for the Yanks to be without at least one dominant back-end arm in the bullpen. In the best case scenario where Betances gets healthy immediately and everyone else remains so, then the Yankees simply have an embarrassment of riches in the ‘pen. That would be okay with me too.

Free Agent Outlook

This spring has seen an unprecedented number of elite players sign extensions, with players electing to take guaranteed money now rather than risk another weak free agent class. Players already under contract but with opt-outs, like Aroldis Chapman, are likely not to utilize them – even if they remain effective.

In other words, that means that fewer and fewer elite players will see the market in the coming years. This same argument applied – but more aptly, it must be said – to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper as well, but it’s somehow even more apparent now than it was a few weeks ago. The Yankees are in a window of contention, and they should not waste it by not signing the very best available players. Kimbrel is one of those.

Cost Certainty Going Forward

The Yankees have smartly locked up both Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino and are likely to pursue similar extensions for players like Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as they approach their money-making arbitration years. Given the current state of extensions – where players are frequently signing contracts for less than they’d expect in arbitration, let alone the open market – it is likely that any extension for those players will be team-friendly.

Beyond that, the Yanks only have $51.26 million locked up for 2022 per Cot’s Contracts. That’s not a lot of long-term money, with the only big contract being Stanton’s. The Yanks just don’t have much long-term money tied up, and with fewer big-ticket free agents on the horizon and teams holding all of the negotiation leverage in extension talks, it’s likely to stay that way. Signing Kimbrel wouldn’t much compromise that future flexibility and would have the added benefit of improving the team now.

It Would Deal a Blow to Boston

Kimbrel, of course, has spent the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Boston doesn’t seem all that motivated to sign him right now, but their bullpen will likely be the one weakness on their team. That means that they may swoop in at the eleventh hour and make a compelling offer or that they’re hoping for his price to drop to where they’re comfortable – an outcome which does grow more likely each day he goes unsigned.

Stealing away Kimbrel would prevent that from happening, taking away the one constant from the Sox bullpen from last year and make their bullpen a true weak spot heading into 2019. In a division race that figures to be extremely close, it always makes sense to weaken your rival if you can.

The Yanks Haven’t Won the ALE Since 2012

The Yankees haven’t won the AL East since the 2012 season seven years ago. Their three postseason appearances since (2015, 2017 and 2018) all began with the Wild Card Game being played in the Bronx. They’re 2-1 in those games, and the 2017 game, in particular, is a classic, but I think everyone would prefer a guaranteed berth in the ALDS rather than playing another do-or-die matchup to begin the playoffs. That’s especially true amid a true championship window: You don’t want to leave anything to chance.

Even as two-thirds of teams around the league try to lose and most divisions are completely uncompetitive, the Yanks have the misfortune of sharing theirs with Boston, who, in case you forgot, won 108 games and the World Series last year. The AL East is Boston’s right now, and the Yankees should stop at nothing to take it back – even if that means stealing Boston’s closer.

*****

Again, if I was being generous, I’d give this a 0.01% chance of being possible. But that’s not really the point here. Craig Kimbrel is one of the very best relievers in the history of baseball and he is unsigned less than a week from Opening Day. Fans and analysts of every team in the league could do a similar exercise for why their preferred team should sign him, and eventually, someone will (right now it looks like the Braves or Brewers). Why shouldn’t it be the Yankees?

Passan: Angels, Mike Trout nearing record $430M extension

by

(Harry How/Getty)

According to Jeff Passan, the Angels and Mike Trout are nearing a record 12-year extension worth $430M. It is ten years and $363.5M on top of the two years and $66.5M remaining on his current contract. This is easily the largest contract in baseball history, breaking Bryce Harper’s record.

Here are the six largest contracts in baseball history:

  1. Mike Trout, Angels: 12 years, $430M
  2. Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
  3. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
  4. Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
  5. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
  6. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

Four of the six were signed within the last month or so, which I’m sure some will say is evidence baseball is just fine economically. In other news, the Yankees signed a league average starter who’s thrown at least 170 innings in eight of the last nine seasons to a minor league contract yesterday.

Trout’s contract reportedly includes no opt-outs and, if it doesn’t include no-trade protection, he’s less than three years away from picking up five-and-ten rights. Who knows how things will play out over the next 12 years. It sure seems like this contract will keep Trout in Anaheim the rest of his career though, and that’s pretty cool.

At age 27, Trout is already a slam dunk Hall of Famer, having hit .317/.416/.573 (172 wRC+) with 240 homers, 189 steals, and +64 WAR in parts of eight big league seasons. Last season was maybe his best ever (.312/.460/.628 and 191 wRC+) and he still has multiple peak years remaining. He is very deserving of this contract.

The Trout extension doesn’t have much impact on the Yankees other than taking away a potential free agent target in two years, so this is a pretty good reminder that you should sign acquire elite talent while you can. I don’t believe the Yankees passed on Harper and Machado now because they wanted Arenado or Trout later. I’m just sayin’.

Devil’s Advocate: The Yankees were smart to pass on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper

by

(Presswire)

Let me preface this by saying I think the Yankees made a mistake not signing Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper. Star-caliber players in their mid-20s are among the most valuable commodities in the sport and they are damn near impossible to acquire. Here were two available for cash, and the Yankees passed despite having a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year.

Scott Boras, Harper’s agent, told Ken Davidoff the Yankees were “really never a thought because we knew going in, because of the structure of the game, only certain houses were to be looked at as far as potentials,” whatever that means. In recent days both Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone gave a flat “no” response when asked whether Harper was ever a real possibility for the Yankees. From David Lennon:

“I’m closing the chapter on these questions about high-end free agency in the winter,” Cashman said before Sunday’s game at Steinbrenner Field. “I feel like we’ve vetted that enough. Sorry. I’d rather focus on the here and now, and the real rather than the unreal.”

…

“We’re obviously up and running with what we’ve got,” Cashman said. “We’re excited about what we got, and how a lot of it looks like now, and hoping that’s enough. But you’re always looking to improve over the course of time, if it’s within certain parameters on both ends. So, obviously between now and Aug. 31, we’ll continue to evaluate all opportunities.”

The Yankees are going to win a lot of games — a lot of games — this season and in future seasons as well. They’re loaded with talent and their best players are all either in their prime or approaching it. I still believe passing on Machado and Harper was a mistake, and not a small one either. There is always room for improvement and both guys would’ve easily fit into the lineup. This past offseason will be relitigated many times in the future. Get ready for it.

Anyway, because this is a full service blog and I try to present #bothsides whenever possible, I figured it was time to explore why the Yankees were smart to pass on Machado and Harper. Some reasons are more believable than others, but hey, they are all potential reasons. Here’s why the Yankees were smart to not sign two 26-year-old superstars and make themselves the clear-cut best team in baseball.

1. Harper’s contact rate is trending down. His contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is trending down, specifically. Hitters all around baseball are making less and less contact because the pitching is so good, but, in Harper’s case, he has swung through a ton of pitches out over the plate over the last year and change. I mean, look:

Harper’s raw power is thunderous. He can hit the ball as far as anyone in baseball. But, over the last year, year and a half, he is missing the pitches he should be clobbering more and more often. Harper’s plate discipline is exceptional. The guy has a 17.4% walk rate the last four years. (Aaron Judge has a 17.2% walk rate the last two years, for comparison.) He gets himself into good hitter’s counts. He just isn’t capitalizing as much as he should be.

To be fair to Harper, the league average contact rate on pitches in the zone has gone from 87.1% in 2015 to 85.6% in 2018. Like I said, pitching is ridiculously good right now. Harper’s in-zone contact rate sat at 78.0% last year. That ranked 137th among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Hmmm.

2. Machado is sort of a jerk. Machado’s comments about not being “Johnny Hustle” and running out grounders not being “my cup of tea” got a lot of play over the winter and I totally get it. Jogging out routine ground balls doesn’t bother me much though. Yes, it would be nice to see Machado and every other player run out every grounder (especially in the postseason!), but it’s just not going to happen.

The hustle comments overshadowed some dirty at best and intentionally dangerous at worst plays last postseason. Most notably, Machado straight up kicked Jesus Aguilar in the ankle at first base during the NLCS. You’ve seen this by now:

I don’t know how anyone could watch that and see it as anything other than an intent to injure. Machado didn’t take a misstep and the throw didn’t take Aguilar into Machado’s path. He went out of his way to kick him as he ran through first base. That is dirty as hell. I reckon something like that would’ve earned Machado a fastball to the ribs had it happened during the regular season. We’ll see what happens when the Padres play the Brewers this year.

Everyone has a bad day now and then, but, in Machado’s case, it’s impossible to dismiss this as a bad day given his history. He tried to throw a bat at a pitcher. He got into it with Josh Donaldson. He spiked Dustin Pedroia. I honestly believe the Pedroia thing was an accident. Machado hit the bag hard and his foot popped up, and Pedroia’s calf was in the wrong place at the wrong time. That said, Manny hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

The Yankees go to great lengths to ensure they have a good clubhouse culture — to be fair to Machado, has anyone ever said he’s a bad teammate? (quite the opposite, in fact) — and even if Machado were a model citizen with the Yankees, his reputation is established and it will follow him. He would be asked about it, his teammates would be asked about it, Boone and the coaches would be asked about it. Even on his best behavior, Machado would be a distraction.

3. Harper is falling victim to the shift. Remember how frustrating it was to watch Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann pulled grounder after grounder into the shift all those years? Harper is not quite at that level yet, but he is seeing more and more shifts with each passing year. The numbers:

  • 2015: 19.3% plate appearances with the shift
  • 2016: 36.5%
  • 2017: 38.8%
  • 2018: 41.4%

I guess teams finally started to pay attention after Harper’s historically great MVP season in 2015. Over the last three seasons Harper has an 82 wRC+ with the shift. That is: bad. He is seeing the shift more and more often with each passing season and, well, you do the math. Harper had a sub-.250 batting average in two of the last three seasons (.243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018) and the shift is a major reason why. Unless baseball outlaws the shift, which is certainly possible, Harper is only going to see it more often going forward.

4. Machado’s on-base skills aren’t elite. The power and contact ability are certainly elite, few players strike out as little as Machado while hitting for that much power, but the on-base percentage leaves you wanting more. Since breaking out as a bona fide star four years ago, Machado’s posted a .345 OBP in over 2,800 plate appearances, and his career high is a .367 OBP last year. Manny isn’t shy about chasing pitches out of the zone:

The okay but not great plate discipline — Machado is not an extreme hacker, but he isn’t up there looking to walk — is a reason why, despite the contact ability and 142 homers the last four years, Machado’s very best offensive season (141 wRC+ in 2018) is only roughly as good as Giancarlo Stanton’s average season (142 wRC+). Simply put, a player who doesn’t walk much has less margin for the error. If the batting average isn’t there, the offensive value can plummet quick. (That applies to Miguel Andujar, it should be noted.)

5. Both have injury histories. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and both Harper and Machado have an injury history. In Machado’s case, he had surgery on both knees in the span of a few months back in 2013-14. They were non-contact injuries — he hurt his right knee running through first base and his left knee taking a swing — that required a lengthy rehab. To Machado’s credit, he’s played in 637 of 648 possible games the last four years, so the knees have given him no trouble since. Still, two knee surgeries is bad news.

As for Harper, his injury history is more diverse and the injuries have typically been the result of aggressive play. He banged up his knee crashing into the wall in 2013 and played hurt throughout the second half. He tore ligaments in his thumb on an aggressive slide and required surgery in 2014. In 2017 he slipped on a wet base and hyperextended his knee. I remember watching the play live and thinking his knee was destroyed. Somehow he escaped with no fracture or ligament damage. Crazy. Harper has missed 140 games the last five years, roughly a full season’s worth.

Machado’s knees are kinda scary — how much longer does he have at third base (or shortstop) before his legs send him to a less demanding position? — and, in Harper’s case, he played a cautious outfield last year, likely out of self-preservation. There were no dives or crashing into the wall. On one hand, he stayed healthy, and that’s good. On the other, his defensive numbers went in the tank. Point is, we’re talking about very long-term contracts and players with injury histories that can’t be ignored.

6. The Yankees do have a budget. Joel Sherman recently reported Hal Steinbrenner set a $220M or so luxury tax payroll limit for Opening Day. Complain about that number all you want — and believe me, I do (why has payroll not increased at all in nearly ten years? am I really supposed to believe operating costs have climbed to the point where they cancel out all the additional revenue?) — but the fact of the matter is Cashman and his baseball operations folks had to operate around that budget.

Cot’s has the 2019 payroll at $222.4M for luxury tax purposes at the moment. We could play the “don’t sign Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, and Adam Ottavino and they could’ve afforded Harper at his luxury tax number instead!” game until we’re blue in the face, but that leaves the Yankees short an infielder and a reliever. No Gardner, no LeMahieu, and no Zack Britton is enough to afford Machado, but again, it leaves roster holes elsewhere. Dollars and roster spots are not unlimited resources, and the Yankees opted to use their money to upgrade as many roster spots as possible rather than land that one big fish. The 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way.

Also, this applies long-term as well. The Yankees will have to pay Aaron Judge enormous arbitration raises starting next year. Keeping Aaron Hicks long-term was a priority. Locking up Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances is presumably next on the agenda. I don’t know how we went from “young players are cheap, allowing teams to surround them with free agents” to “young players are cheap, but they’ll be expensive eventually so you can’t sign anyone,” but we have. Bottom line: Every dollar the Yankees had given Machado or Harper is a dollar they couldn’t give someone else.

7. The Yankees know what they’re doing. Cashman and his staff have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees are healthier as an organization now than they have been in years, probably since the late-1990s. The farm system is immensely productive and slam dunk trade wins like Hicks and Gregorius are the norm. I mean, seriously, when’s the last time the Yankees traded away a player they truly miss? I can’t remember. The baseball operations folks have more information than us and they’re much smarter than us, and they opted to pass on Machado and Harper.

* * *

Like I said earlier, I think the Yankees made a mistake passing on Machado and Harper. Even with the warts, they are insanely productive and only now entering what should be the prime of their careers, which aligns perfectly with the team’s championship window. The Yankees should always and forever be in on players like this. What I think doesn’t matter though. The Yankees have a budget, and squint your eyes and you can find red flags with Harper and Machado. Also, the Yankees are pretty good at this team-building thing, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully passing on these two is not something they come to regret.

Reports: Harper agrees to 13-year, $330M deal with Phillies

by

(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

You can stop hoping the Yankees will swoop in to sign Bryce Harper like they did Mark Teixeira back in the day now. According to multiple reports, Harper has agreed to a massive 13-year, $330M contract with the Phillies. It is the largest contract in baseball history, besting Giancarlo Stanton’s deal by $5M in total guarantee.

Harper’s new contract reportedly does not include any opt-outs, which is a bit surprising. Here are the largest contracts in baseball history:

  1. Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
  2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
  3. Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
  4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
  5. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

The 13-year contract covers Harper’s age 26-38 seasons and comes with a very affordable $25.38M average annual value (and thus luxury tax hit). I thought maybe Harper and Scott Boras would try to top the average annual value record (Zack Greinke at $34.42M), but I guess not. The Dodgers and Giants were said to be in the mix on short-term deals, which was never all that realistic.

The Yankees were never seriously connected to Harper this offseason. They were tied to Machado all throughout the winter, though they were never all the way in. With Harper, they weren’t involved at all even though he’s a 26-year-old superstar with lefty power and patience, two traits that define the Yankees historically. Instead, the Yankees passed on the big fish to spread out the money this winter.

I don’t know about you, but I can not believe the Yankees passed on two elite prime-aged talents like Harper and Machado after developing a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year. It’s one thing to get outbid or have the player choose another team, but not even making a serious attempt to sign either of them? Infuriating. What a scam.

Friday Links: Machado, Moustakas, Pitch Clock, London Series

by

Manny heading to the Left Coast. (Harry How/Getty)

The first Grapefruit League game is less than 24 hours away. Thank goodness for that. As for the Yankees making further additions, it’s possible, but don’t expect anything big. “We’ve been offering (minor league contracts) out like Chiclets,” Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman. How exciting. Anyway, here are some notes.

Yankees would’ve gone to $240M for Machado?

The Yankees never did make Manny Machado a formal offer before he signed with the Padres, but, according to Jon Heyman, during their December meeting the Yankees indicated they were willing to offer him $220M to $240M. A lowball offer, clearly. They wanted Machado on their terms and at a discount or not at all. My guess is that $220M to $240M would’ve been spread across eight years rather than ten, and included opt-outs and all that good stuff.

Bryce Harper signing a short-term contract never seemed all that likely and the Machado contract all but guarantees it won’t happen. I have to think Harper and Scott Boras are licked their chops in anticipation of negotiating with the desperate as hell Phillies. I know it’s not going to happen but dammit I can’t help but hold out hope the Yankees are laying in the weeds here ready to swoop in a la Mark Teixeira years ago. Would be cool. Oh well. Maybe the Yankees will sign a 26-year-old superstar next offseason.

Yankees “briefly” considered Moustakas

According to Andy Martino, the Yankees only “briefly” considered making a run at Mike Moustakas earlier this offseason. Moustakas returned to the Brewers on a one-year deal worth $10M guaranteed earlier this week. The Yankees had interest in Moustakas as a first baseman at the trade deadline last year, before he went to the Brewers and before they acquired Luke Voit. Can’t get mad about how that series of events turned out.

Moustakas, 30, hit .251/.315/.459 (105 wRC+) with 28 home runs last season. He’s a lefty with a tendency to pull the ball in the air, so he would’ve fit nicely in Yankee Stadium. The Brewers are apparently going to play Moustakas at second base. The Yankees could’ve done that and shifted Gleyber Torres to short. Or they could’ve just put Moustakas at third base, moved Miguel Andujar to DH, and put Giancarlo Stanton in left field. Eh, whatever.

Pitch clock coming to Spring Training

You will see a pitch clock when the Yankees open their spring schedule tomorrow. Earlier this week commissioner Rob Manfred told Mike Fitzpatrick a 20-second pitch clock will be used during Cactus League and Grapefruit League games. No decision has been made about the regular season yet. Manfred and MLB want to give players and umpires a chance to get used to the pitch clock just case it is used during the regular season, so we’ll see it this spring. There will be warnings at first before ball-strike penalties take effect depending whether the pitcher or hitter is late.

“We’re still hopeful that we’re going to make an agreement with (the MLBPA) on pace-of-play initiatives. I just think that whether it’s by agreement or otherwise, the only prudent course for us at this point is to be in a position to proceed if in fact we have an agreement or decide to do it,” said Manfred. Manfred can unilaterally implement a 20-second pitch clock this year and it sounds like he will do exactly that if MLB and the MLBPA are unable to agree to a new set of pace-of-play rules. I am pro-pitch clock. Let’s do this. You won’t even notice it’s there in a few weeks.

MLB cracking down on high-tech sign-stealing

As expected, MLB is cracking down on high-tech sign-stealing following incidents in the postseason last year, reports Tom Verducci. An Astros employee was caught recording the Indians dugout during the ALDS last year, though the employee claimed he was monitoring Cleveland to make sure they weren’t stealing signs, and was later cleared by MLB following an investigation. There was also the Apple watch incident with the Red Sox two years ago.

According to Verducci, teams are now banned from using non-broadcast cameras from foul pole to foul pole in the outfield, and there are tighter restrictions on in-house video. Specifically, dugout and clubhouse monitors will be on an eight-second delay, and a designated official will monitor communication between the video replay room and the dugout. Penalties include loss of draft picks and international bonus money. There are no rules against stealing signs! MLB just doesn’t want teams using high-tech gadgets to do it. Given how much technology is in the game today, this was an inevitable and necessary step.

Yankees, Red Sox will wear home uniforms in London

The Yankees and Red Sox will both wear their home uniforms during the London Series later this summer, reports Pete Abraham. The Red Sox will be the home team for the two games but the Yankees will be out there in pinstripes. Why? Marketing. Can’t send your marquee franchise overseas in an effort to grow the game and not have them wear their iconic uniform, you know? Imagine sending the Yankees overseas and making them wear their road grays. Good grief. Anyway, the London Series will be played at London Stadium on June 29th and 30th.

Reports: Manny Machado agrees to deal with Padres

by

(Tom Pennington/Getty)

The Manny Machado free agency saga is finally over. According to multiple reports Machado has agreed to a massive ten-year, $300M contract with the San Diego Padres. Yes, the Padres. Allow me to toot my own horn and point out I called the Padres as a sleeper team on Machado over a month ago, before they reportedly got involved in the bidding. Go me.

Machado’s new contract includes an opt-out after the fifth year, which surprises me. I thought his side would push for an opt-out after the third year, which would allow him to reenter free agency at age 29, and also right as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and things (maybe) get better for free agents. Maybe Machado’s camp tried but the Padres wouldn’t budge. Whatever.

At $300M, this is the second largest contract in baseball history behind Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325M deal. It’s also the largest free agent contract in North American sports history (Stanton’s deal was an extension during his arbitration years). The Padres gave out the richest free agent contract last winter (Eric Hosmer), remember. Don’t ever let teams trick you into believing they don’t have money.

San Diego appears to be an odd destination for Machado, and it is, but money talks. Also, the Padres have a monster farm system. Best in baseball in my book. Their best prospects, like Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia, started to arrive last year, and others like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could arrive this year. You can see the foundation of a contending roster forming, and since Machado is only 26, he fits right in with the youth movement.

With Machado off the board Bryce Harper becomes the undisputed top free agent available, and I imagine the Phillies and White Sox will ramp up their efforts to sign him. At least one of those two clubs is going to walk away empty-handed. The Giants have been connected to Harper in recent weeks and I wouldn’t rule out the Nationals either. I reckon Machado’s contract record won’t last long.

As for the Yankees, they only half-heartedly pursued Machado this winter. They met with him at Yankee Stadium in December and, according to James Wagner and Jack Curry, they never made him an offer after that, and “strong voices” in the organization were against signing him. The Yankees have barely been connected to Harper this offseason. I suppose they could swoop in to sign him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The Yankees will see Machado and Padres during interleague play this year. The Padres are scheduled to visit Yankee Stadium for a three-year series from May 27th to 29th. The Yankees are not going to San Diego this season, however.