River Avenue Blues

Magic Number drops, but Yanks fall short in Anaheim

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When Robinson Cano came to the plate representing the tying run, for a second I believed that the Yanks’ second baseman would come through. He took a pitch for a ball, took another for a strike and then hacked weakly at an outside slider, pulling it to Kendry Morales for the final out of a 5-2 Angels victory. For the Yankees, it was another loss to the Angels, one complete with early-inning bad luck and some poor managerial decisions.

Before we delve too far into this one, though, we should acknowledge that the Yanks’ Magic Number to clinch dropped to a Yogi-like 8 tonight. While the Royals found themselves at the wrong end of an early 6-0 deficit, they rallied against Tim Wakefield, Manny Delcarmen and closer-of-the-future Daniel Bard to down the Red Sox 12-9. Zack Greinke faces Paul Byrd tomorrow evening.

For the Yankees, the game started off on a promising note. Similar to Sunday, Derek Jeter singled to get the party started. For reasons unknown, Robb Quinlan wasn’t holding Jeter on, and while Johnny Damon scorched the ball down the first base line, Quinlan nabbed it on a dive. Had he been holding Jeter on, the Yanks would have had second and third with no one out.

With a runner on first and one out, Mark Teixeira blasted a ball down the third base line, but Chone Figgins had other ideas. The Angels’ pesky third baseman made a diving stop, and while he didn’t record an out, he stopped what could have been an RBI double. The Yanks had two scorched balls, but nothing to show for it. It would be that kind of night.

Making his first start after an extended rest brought about by shoulder fatigue, Andy Pettitte wasn’t sharp in the first inning. With two outs, back-to-back-to-back hits gave the Angels a two-run lead. After that, Pettitte rolled. He gave up a run on a few hits in the bottom of the 5th, but his final line was more than we expected. He went 6 innings and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks. He will pitch again against the Red Sox this weekend, and how he responds to regular rest will be quite important for the Yanks’ playoff hopes.

In fact, the third run probably shouldn’t have scored. With an out in the 5th, a Chone Figgins flyball split Melky Cabrea and Johnny Damon. Damon called off his center fielder, and Robb Quinlan advanced on the weak-armed Damon. Had Cabrera caught that ball, Quinlan probably stays at third.

Meanwhile, the Yanks scuffled against Saunders. They drew no walks and eked out just 7 hits. Their runs came on solo shots by A-Rod and a pinch-hitting Hideki Matsui. While Nick Swisher drilled one to the wall in the 9th, the air in Anaheim wasn’t carrying, and a late-game rally fell short.

But while we have to tip our cap to Joe Saunders, what was quite curious were a few managerial decisions by Joe Girardi. First, he opted to rest Hideki Matsui, a very good hitter against left-handed pitchers, in favor of a right-handed lineup. That strategy clearly didn’t work, and Matsui blasted one of the few pitches he saw from Saunders. With Jose Molina as Matsui’s replacement in the lineup, the swing in line-up value is immense.

Then, late in the game with the Yanks down 3-1, Girardi made a few questionable decisions. While Alfredo Aceves has not thrown since Sept. 14, Girardi went with Brian Bruney, and while Bruney has a new number, his results were the same. He gave up a towering home run to Kendy Morales and should not pitch in any meaningful situation.

After the game, Girardi defended his move, but his reasoning was unsatisfying. Claiming that the Yanks are “trying to win,” Girardi said that he prefers to bring in Aceves when they’re winning or in a one-run game. It’s hard to believe Girardi thinks this excuse flies. Keeping the game close is just as important as closing the door, and the Yanks should not be pigeon-holing their relievers as Girardi seemed to say they do.

While Matsui’s home run brought the Bombers back to within one, Girardi went with Jonathan Albaladejo in the 8th. The mediocre reliever gave up another run to ice the game for the Angels. I know the Yankees don’t need to win right now, but they need to start preparing for October. They have 11 games to improve their play, and this game won’t go down as a shining moment.

Right now, Kenny Singleton and Michael Kay are discussing how the Yanks are on auto-pilot. They’re in the playoffs, and they’ll probably have the best record in the AL. But a crisp, well-played and well-managed finish to the season would do wonders for the team’s and the fan’s confidence.

We’ll do it again later tonight at 10:10 p.m. Chad Gaudin will pitch for the fourth spot in the playoff rotation, and he’ll face Ervin Santana. Let’s hope the bats — and Zack Greinke — show up.

Game 151: Out in LA

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I’m stealing a bit of Fack Youk’s schtick here, but I just had to. But they didn’t pick this song, and it’s pretty freaking awesome. So feel free to click play and listen to the song while you read.

Angels Stadium of Anaheim: a place the Yankees apparently do not like playing. They’ve had their struggles there over the past few years, and the situation came to a head in the three games before the All-Star Break, when the Angels swept the Bombers.

Trends are great for one reason: by definition, they do not last forever. While the Yankees of recent past have had troubles out in LA, this is not the same group. No, the July series does not help their case, but that was a turning point in the season. The Yanks went on an absolute tear after that series, storming out of the gates in the second half and running strongly through August and the beginning of September.

There might have been some complacency brewing in the past week or so. The Yanks are 5-5 in their last 10, but after series against the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Mariners, are finally back to playing real competition. In fact, one of those five wins was against the Angels, as the Yanks rallied to a victory at the Stadium just a week ago. They’ll look for more of the same in this series.

Things start off with Joe Saunders, former first round pick. After a breakout season in 2008, things got ugly for Saunders in 2009. From June 30, when he entered with a 3.66 ERA, through August 7, he allowed 43 runs, 41 earned, over 38.1 innings. Something was clearly wrong, and on August 8 the Angels placed him on the 15-day DL with left shoulder tightness. For a team that has faced numerous pitching injuries, this was about the third-worst thing that could happen (Nick Adenhart – immeasurable gap – Kelvim Escobar – big gap – Saunders).

Since his return on August 26, Saunders has been nothing short of brilliant. He’s tossed 30 innings over five starts, allowing 10 runs, seven earned. That’s more like the Saunders the Angels were expecting this season. That’s unsustainable over a season for a guy with his stuff, but Saunders can go into stretches like this. The Yanks have to hope that his luck turns around a bit in this start.

Andy Pettitte makes his return for the Yankees this evening. After a dominant August, Pettitte ran into troubles in his two September starts. Like Saunders, Andy faced some shoulder issues. Unlike the Angels, the Yankees nipped it in the bud early. Andy hasn’t tossed a live inning until September 11, giving him a full nine days off. He swears he feels fine, but we shouldn’t expect Pettitte to say any different.

A win against the Angels tonight would be huge. Not only would it quell a few narratives, but it would knock that magic number down to Yogi/Dickey. That’s all the Yanks should be focused on now, getting that number to zero as quickly as possible.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Nick Swisher, RF
6. Jorge Posada, DH
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Melky Cabrera, CF
9. Jose Molina, C

And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte.

Open Thread: In which we discuss how the Yankees are impacting farm systems in Japan

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As fans of the minor leagues and prospects, we know that winning in the minors will always take a back seat to development. It seems obvious, however on the other side of the lake Japanese clubs believe their minor league affiliates should focus on winning just as much as their Major League counterparts. That is starting to change though, thanks in part to the Yankees.

The Yomiuri Giants, Hideki Matsui’s old team, have a relationship with the Bombers that allows their coaches to participate in what amounts to a study abroad program, where they spend time working in the Yanks’ minor league system. Kaoru Okazaki, essentially Yomiuri’s farm director, is taking what he learned during his time with the Yanks and is installing a more development-focused system for his club. Allow me to quote Ryo of NPB Tracker:

In Japan, the farm system believes in winning as much as their NPB teams and using a pinch hitter in game deciding situation remains to be a norm. NPB baseball operations personnel has a mindset that if the farm system isn’t winning, the players aren’t developing. In that case the ni-gun manager will not be evaluated efficiently, which results in aggressive decisions.

However Okazaki learned a different style in the minor leagues where players rarely get taken out of games. The evaluation comes into place playing a whole game and not only from a portion of the game. Learning the importance of allowing the players  to play the whole game allowed Okazaki to have a better assessment on each player and decreases the possibility of missing out on players’ less obvious skills.

Even though there are players that need to be developed for certain situations (such as lefty-lefty match ups), Okazaki strongly believes in developing the overall skills in position players. The development of OF Tetsuya Matsumoto and INF Hayato Sakamoto has been hard to miss and if the Giants continue to have success in developing the young talents within their system, we could see a strong Giants team for a long time.

MLB and NPB have been developing a strong and mutually beneficial relationship for quite some time now, especially in the last few years.  It’s great to see the benefits go beyond players and now extending into the coaching staffs. Nothing but good can come from this, for both sides.

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Here’s your open thread for the night. The Yanks are still out on the west coast, so we’ve still got three hours to kill until first pitch. The Mets and Braves are crossing another meaningless game off their calenders in Flushing, while your MNF game is the Colts at Dolphins. Marian Gaborik is making his Rangers debut at the Garden tonight, although it’s just a preseason game. I also hear there’s a new episode of House on. Feel free to talk about whatever you want, just be civil.

The perfect use of WPA

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In baseball’s endless search for new ways to measure the game, we’ve recently seen the development of WPA. Using historical data, it tracks the odds a team has of winning a game at any given time, based on run differential, outs, and base situation. It has its flaws, but it does serve one purpose: it captures the essence of a game. Tom Tango examines this using a painful example, Ichiro’s walk-off. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, WPA gave the Yanks an over-95-percent chance to win the game. Mike Sweeny’s double reduced that to 85.8 percent, and Ichiro made up all the difference. Tango also notes the general fan reaction, which makes sense after such an improbably turn around.

This feeds in nicely with the discussion in the Dominance Factors thread. The purpose of WPA is not to evaluate a player’s performance. It is to show the ebbs and flows of a game. Used for this purpose, it’s a wonderful stat. Used for others, it can mislead.

By request, the graph from that night:

From FanGraphs.

On playing the Angels

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Whenever the Yankees and Angels square off, the coverage focuses around the Yanks’ seemingly historic inability to beat Anaheim. In fact, since 2002, the Angels, 40-30 against New York, are the only American League team to have a winning record against the Yankees. We shouldn’t put much credence into this number though.

The Yanks’ troubles seemingly took off in 2002 when the two teams squared off in the ALDS. While the Yankees won 103 games that year, the Angels had won 99 and were not a bad team by any means. The Yanks won the first game but dropped the next three. While Steve Karsay threw in all four playoff games, Mariano Rivera was deployed once, and the Yankee pitching just couldn’t withstand the Angels.

Three years later, the two teams met again in the ALDS. In between post-season match-ups, the Yankees went 14-14 against the Angels in the regular season, and in 2005, Los Angeles was 6-4 against New York. Both teams had won 95 during the regular season, but the Angels emerged victorious. Mike Mussina couldn’t hold down the team in Game 5 of the ALDS, and Bubba Crosby and Gary Sheffield collided disastrously in the outfield. It was a rather forgettable series.

Since then, the Yankees have gone just 13-23 against the Angels. While the Yanks are 9-9 at home, the Angels are 14-4 against the Yanks in Angels Stadium. As the Yankees battle for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the teams open up a somewhat pivotal three-game set tonight in Anaheim.

So should we care about the Yanks’ past performance? Do the Angels, as many are wont to say, get into the heads of the Yankees? Unless institutional memory is strong, it’s hard to see exactly how the Yanks allow previous years’ Angels losses to carry over.

The 2002 Angels were a team built on speed, pitching and Troy Glaus’ prodigious October power. There are just two players left them from that team on the Angels. John Lackey is still plugging away, and Chone Figgins had 12 ABs for the Angels that year. Just four Yankees — the so-called Old Guard of Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera — remain from the 2002 team. None of those are are thought of as weak-willed. I doubt the Angels are in their heads.

From 2005, a few other new faces join the rivalry. Along with Lackey and Figgins, the Angels still Vladimir Guerrero, Robb Quinlan, Juan Rivera, Maicer Izturis, Jeff Mathis and Ervin Santana. How some of those players have stuck around for four more years, I do not know. The Yankee hold-overs now include A-Rod, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and, to a lesser extent, Melky Cabrera and Chien-Ming Wang.

That leaves us generally with a nice narrative and little reason to believe it. The Yankees have struggled against the Angels over the last few years, but by going 3-4 and beating the Angels at their own game last week, the Yanks have shown improvement. Yet, just because they often lose to the same team does not mean that the Yankee pinstripes are afraid of or intimidated by the likes of Erick Aybar and Torii Hunter. It’s just a narrative.

The Angels play the Yankees hard because, well, the Angels are a good team. They are one of the winningest teams of the decade, and they are, depending upon the day, the second or third best team in the AL this season. Even the best teams will lose to other good teams, and that’s all there is to it.